Automation and the changing face of our economy

[pyrohornIII 4,824]

To keep this topic alive without threadshitting on others. 

It is where we are headed, not just in our job force, but also in our military.  This is what our government should be addressing, along with environment and other long range issues.  Since they won't educate us, then we need to do that for ourselves, and our kids/grandkids. 

[Brian Fantana 6,697]

Addressing how?

[bad_teammate 13,226]

[Lagunamadre 1,975]

[pyrohornIII 4,824]

They could be funding some research in the topic, have a clearinghouse to help the public understand what is coming along.   For starters.  

At least in the workforce area.  The military stuff, the robotic soldiers and war machines we aren't going to hear about, but are already out there, and not just ours.  Think drones.

Someone referenced off hand how this will affect capitalism.   And while it will save money, that won't do the shareholders much good if no one has income to buy their goods or services. 

It's a natural progression we have done, from local merchants to big box, to corporations.  But even when you did that, there were still jobs for people.  They moved from manufacturing buggy whips to antennae.    But the more automation the less jobs for humans, which is what happened when you saw agriculture move into mechanization.  In about a decade or two, you had a lot of sharecroppers looking for new work.    Wars helped with that some, either in reducing the workforce or reducing the output of countries who were decimated.  Either of those meant more jobs here.   In fact, it can be argued that wars hastened the move to mechanized agriculture, because so many soldiers came off of farms.  

But this is different.   And I think about it a lot, when it comes to helping my son decide career paths he can take.   Seems like a lot of paths will be drying up, or fiercely competitive.

Edited November 14, 2018 by pyrohornIII
added rant

[Fudge Nuggets 19,238]

I know that someday automation will replace every Bubba, Buford and Cletus on a drilling rig.  But until that day comes I will have a job because no algorithm can predict the stupid shit that Bubba, Buford and Cletus will pull on a daily basis.  We're talking 8 deviations of dumbassedry on a regular basis.

God bless you Bubba, Buford and Cletus.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,238]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Sign me the fuck up.

[pyrohornIII 4,824]

Imagine.  Just with a little google search.  

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Artificial-Intelligence-Automation-Economy.PDF

Anybody got anything on what Trump and the Rs are doing on this?

 

[Celery Man 21,021]

learn how to automate or be a task rabbit

 

more seriously, between this and global warming for quasi-real quasi-abstract things to panic over, I'll panic over global warming

[G650 14,284]

Guaranteed minimum income is literally the only way forward. I've been saying this for eons.

[Brisketexan 105,478]

 

[Helobious 9,477]

Yeah I used to worry about this a ton, now it’s whatever. People are motivated by money over all else. Sure the whole workforce could be automated away, but what good would that do companies when no one has money to buy their stuff? How will governments collect tax income? 

[Yuk 1,572]

21 minutes ago, G650 said:

Guaranteed minimum income is literally the only way forward. I've been saying this for eons.

Pretty much this.  With a fully automated economy the value of each person is substantially depreciated.  Most people will not even have comparative advantage.  Either provide universal basic income or end up with your head on a spike.  Only other option is essentially violence.  Knowing human nature, I expect the worst outcome of the two.

[Celery Man 21,021]

or people will find other shit to do

[Continental Op 3,934]

I'm in auditing. We're fucked as an industry. I have some background in programming/database stuff so hopefully I can find a way to survive.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

There are few industries that are creating a mass number of jobs in the US.   Or even when they do, the usually attempt to automate as quickly as possible.   Amazon hires tons of warehouse people to meet demand.  Then they find methods to reduce headcount like having smart warehouse.  The bins move to the workers increasing the worker productivity.   You do more with less people.    

Or where Amazon is experimenting with methods to eliminate more people from the shipping process.  Whether that is driverless vehicles, drone delivery, flying warehouses, or centralized delivery/pickup locations.   Some of their ideas will ultimately fail but the common goal is to improve efficiency by eliminating people.  

I'm not saying any of this is good or bad, it just is.  Society and govt will have to adjust that we will slowly leak employment opportunities from the US.   Won't happen overnight.  Slow leak.  I believe I can wrap up my career without too much impact but I wouldn't feel the same if I were 22.

 

 

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Convince your kids to go into maintenance. Someone is going to need to repair all this shit.

[bad_teammate 13,226]

There are plenty of things for us all to do, all we have to do is manage priorities.

Our modern capitalist/industrialist economy has funneled us into certain types of jobs, but that doesn't mean that is how jobs are supposed to exist. There are a ton of things we could be doing with our money, but right now we choose to funnel it to shareholders in for-profit systems that are going to, BY DESIGN, minimize resources given to workers which will, BY DESIGN, reduce the skill and necessity of the workforce.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

10 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Convince your kids to go into maintenance. Someone is going to need to repair all this shit.

Plumbers and electricians will be in demand.  Nobody or few want to do that work but you will always be busy.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

There are plenty of things for us all to do, all we have to do is manage priorities.

Our modern capitalist/industrialist economy has funneled us into certain types of jobs, but that doesn't mean that is how jobs are supposed to exist. There are a ton of things we could be doing with our money, but right now we choose to funnel it to shareholders in for-profit systems that are going to, BY DESIGN, minimize resources given to workers which will, BY DESIGN, reduce the skill and necessity of the workforce.

Good point. The biggest risk is to the middle class. Low skill/low pay workers will be hired to run these machines. Low skill/low pay workers will still stock shelves at Future Mart.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Cheeseweasel

[hayden_horn 11,365]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Good point. The biggest risk is to the middle class. Low skill/low pay workers will be hired to run these machines. Low skill/low pay workers will still stock shelves at Future Mart.

robots gonna be stocking those shelves. all of which will be outfitted with sensors, so the robots know what's needing restocking so they can go to where that is, grab it, and motor over to restock.

i seent it with my own eyes.

our only hope for employment may be the checkout aisle, because it seems that most humans cannot figure out how to operate the goddamn self-check aisle.

[Bat Guano 359]

2 hours ago, G650 said:

Guaranteed minimum income is literally the only way forward. I've been saying this for eons.

Yup. Not only for the survival of capitalism but also of democracy. You're not the only one saying it for eons; Aristotle said it 2 millennia ago.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

11 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

robots gonna be stocking those shelves. all of which will be outfitted with sensors, so the robots know what's needing restocking so they can go to where that is, grab it, and motor over to restock.

i seent it with my own eyes.

our only hope for employment may be the checkout aisle, because it seems that most humans cannot figure out how to operate the goddamn self-check aisle.

Robots flinging tin cans is just asking for trouble.

[hayden_horn 11,365]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Robots flinging tin cans is just asking for trouble.

i'm telling you, it's being used for raw materials in manufacturing right now. as factories become more automated, they'll start to apply those lessons learned to eliminate the mundane jobs such as stocking shelves. think less of robots flinging tin cans than a robot tearing the top half off of a box of tin cans and forklifting it to the proper shelf. 

these things exist today.

you won't see this happening in heb this year or next year, but their experiment with self-check tells you that they are definitely not allergic to automation.

curbside pick up? instead of employees taking things off shelves with hard-copy lists robots will assemble the dry goods in the back. now robots can't pick good produce (yet), but there is definitely room in the dry goods area for automation. that 24-hour a day robot that doesn't call in sick or fuck off on facebook is going to pay for itself real quick-like.

 

[gmr548 16,617]

Basic income is the only logical conclusion when 50 percent or more of the population is economically unnecessary. I imagine it will take longer than it should and that things will get pretty nasty, but I also expect we'll eventually get there.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[Bat Guano 359]

So robots wielding box cutters instead? I think I'll take my chances with the tin cans....

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i'm telling you, it's being used for raw materials in manufacturing right now. as factories become more automated, they'll start to apply those lessons learned to eliminate the mundane jobs such as stocking shelves. think less of robots flinging tin cans than a robot tearing the top half off of a box of tin cans and forklifting it to the proper shelf. 

these things exist today.

you won't see this happening in heb this year or next year, but their experiment with self-check tells you that they are definitely not allergic to automation.

curbside pick up? instead of employees taking things off shelves with hard-copy lists robots will assemble the dry goods in the back. now robots can't pick good produce (yet), but there is definitely room in the dry goods area for automation. that 24-hour a day robot that doesn't call in sick or fuck off on facebook is going to pay for itself real quick-like.

 

I'm a pro-automation kind of guy. I feel like to be against it is to be against innovation and is no different than being scared of the car and trying to cling on to the horse and buggy or any other advancement in both the industrial and digital revolution. We are at the cusp of digital revolution 2.0 and things that will have real outcomes, not the social media and apps and other jerk off technology that was supposed to be the next revolution.

I was in Orange County when a self-driving car delivered my pizza (it was Domino's and I got a 20% off coupon to agree to being in the pilot). It was awesome.

Also to your point, Honeywell acquired an interesting company called Intelligrated who is doing awesome things in the connected warehouse space. They are *only* growing by a billion dollars YoY. Check out the video: https://www.intelligrated.com/en

But the automation I'm talking about is the software/workflow stuff. I just got off of a webinar with a company called alteryx who everyone here should have heard about and know about (they IPO'd last year, they are a magic quadrant company) and a software automation company and the things they are empowering managers to do at the self-service/business level-- without the use of data scientists-- is remarkable. If I'm a betting man, I'm betting big on companies like these to be the next major players in the world economy.

Edited November 14, 2018 by Guest

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

6 minutes ago, Bat Guano said:

So robots wielding box cutters instead? I think I'll take my chances with the tin cans....

Robot wars is gonna be lit.

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

There are plenty of things for us all to do, all we have to do is manage priorities.

Our modern capitalist/industrialist economy has funneled us into certain types of jobs, but that doesn't mean that is how jobs are supposed to exist. There are a ton of things we could be doing with our money, but right now we choose to funnel it to shareholders in for-profit systems that are going to, BY DESIGN, minimize resources given to workers which will, BY DESIGN, reduce the skill and necessity of the workforce.

Somebody else took Organizational Designs in b-school I see, eh, brother bear?!? eh? eh? male patriarchy hegemonic privileged brother?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

The people that will fall behind will be the ones who always fall behind because of unwillingness to change.   Like the coal miners who refuse to take other jobs because they're coal miners.  America promised they could be a coal miner forever.

CNN (or another site) recently had a story about the changing careers.  They interviewed a divorced couple that had both worked in an auto factory up north while they were married.  When they both lost their jobs, she took the company up on an offer to be retrained for another profession for free.  Today she's a nurse.  He held onto being an auto worker and started commuting an hour further each day until that factory was ultimately shut down as well.  Today he mows lawns at a golf course.   I think the wife was smarter.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Today he mows lawns at a golf course.   I think the wife was smarter.

Yeah. But on his death bed, he'll receive total consciousness. So he's got that going for him. 

[Incredulity 11,684]

If there was the internet during the Industrial revolution most of the posts on this thread would have been made by Luddites.

Same as it ever was.

[Gil Bang 26,068]

(I still jerk off manually)

[Guest]

Progress of all stripes affects the status quo and the "normal way of life" in any snapshot in time. Interesting to me to see people who freak out when wypipo are ugly and try to stop the wheels of progress and progressiveness to maintain their illusions of comforts and status and way of life, but when the lower middle class perceive their honeypot of being paid a handsome wage to not really do much of value at the end of the day, they say "hey now...wheels of progress is only good when it benefits me and hurts others, NOT when it has a negative impact on my overinflated ability to earn!"

Again, I'm a pretty low value slob myself, so I'm with those whose job might be released to the robots. I'm just hoping it opens up some hitherto unforeseen opportunities for the good life for my kids.

[G650 14,284]

1 hour ago, Bat Guano said:

Yup. Not only for the survival of capitalism but also of democracy. You're not the only one saying it for eons; Aristotle said it 2 millennia ago.

Troof.

[G650 14,284]

50 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The people that will fall behind will be the ones who always fall behind because of unwillingness to change.   Like the coal miners who refuse to take other jobs because they're coal miners.  America promised they could be a coal miner forever.

CNN (or another site) recently had a story about the changing careers.  They interviewed a divorced couple that had both worked in an auto factory up north while they were married.  When they both lost their jobs, she took the company up on an offer to be retrained for another profession for free.  Today she's a nurse.  He held onto being an auto worker and started commuting an hour further each day until that factory was ultimately shut down as well.  Today he mows lawns at a golf course.   I think the wife was smarter.

 

The change isn't going to just be career types, it's also going to be our values. Its really a good thing, because people we be freed to pursue creative pastimes as jobs when the menial shit is handled.by robots. 

[pyrohornIII 4,824]

10 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

The change isn't going to just be career types, it's also going to be our values. Its really a good thing, because people we be freed to pursue creative pastimes as jobs when the menial shit is handled.by robots. 

I have read articles where the younger generations are not as caught up in the consumerism the older ones are.   They are saving more and this whole movement towards minimalism like tiny houses is showing a shift away from the value system of material accumulation and keeping up with the Jones'.  

[Celery Man 21,021]

38 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I have read articles where the younger generations are not as caught up in the consumerism the older ones are.   They are saving more and this whole movement towards minimalism like tiny houses is showing a shift away from the value system of material accumulation and keeping up with the Jones'.  

having $50-100k+ in debt right when you enter the working world (maybe to a job that isn't paying particularly well and even that was difficult to get, as many people who graduated in 08-09 did) instead of just gradually sinking into overwhelming debt is more shocking to the system.  I think the younger millennials and gen y or whatever is next are maybe a little more aware.

We went through a big automation push with our IT ops group a few years back.  Things are way better now, each person is far more productive.  Everyone is still always completely loaded with work and the only people who lost their jobs were the people who couldn't be convinced to adapt from pushing buttons to writing scripts.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,821]

I’d be interested in figuring out how it will affect the financial industry, particularly Wall Street.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I’d be interested in figuring out how it will affect the financial industry, particularly Wall Street.

The financial industry has already been affected. BFSI's were adopting automation when most of us had no idea what it was, 5, 6, 7 years ago. Your JPMorgan Chase, Citigroups, BOFA's, Goldman's are all very mature in their automation practices already. I lived it and saw it, when I was in NJ on the b-team desk for a firm, for a bit of time.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Celery Man said:

having $50-100k+ in debt right when you enter the working world (maybe to a job that isn't paying particularly well and even that was difficult to get, as many people who graduated in 08-09 did) instead of just gradually sinking into overwhelming debt is more shocking to the system.  I think the younger millennials and gen y or whatever is next are maybe a little more aware.

We went through a big automation push with our IT ops group a few years back.  Things are way better now, each person is far more productive.  Everyone is still always completely loaded with work and the only people who lost their jobs were the people who couldn't be convinced to adapt from pushing buttons to writing scripts.

McKinsey (I know, I know, gross! strategy consulting) talks about the idea of "failure demand" which is an interesting concept, which basically speaks to how when people make errors (in compliance or just human errors) the work created to fix the missteps is added somewhere and on to some human's existing workload (and a lot of times exponentially in a bullwhip effect) and that is what is known as failure demand. That, along with the idea that with the digital transformation and evolution every G2000 has had to engage in, the same amount of people are tasked with doing an ever increasing workload that is essentially the 21st equivalent of pushing paper (but data). The idea is to automate that stuff (and maybe not backfill some of the lowest of the low skill positions), at least from my vantage point.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Guest

[tantric superman 4,668]

8 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

To keep this topic alive without threadshitting on others. 

It is where we are headed, not just in our job force, but also in our military.  This is what our government should be addressing, along with environment and other long range issues.  Since they won't educate us, then we need to do that for ourselves, and our kids/grandkids. 

Three issues.

Automation and its effect on workers

Global climate change

Nuclear weapons

 

 

[tantric superman 4,668]

9 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Addressing how?

Universal basic income.

[tantric superman 4,668]

9 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Addressing how?

Universal basic income

Lower birth rate

[F250 28,881]

Regarding UBI.

I believe UBI will be necessary at some point in the near future and its important for everyone to start discussing the concept. It's a fairly complex topic, particularly within the discussion of Automation. Personally, I think the transition to greater automation will be painful for society and will create a situation that will defy the capitalism vs. socialism paradigm. The need for a UBI will not be about social justice but simply social stabilization.

Anyways, we do need to start having a national discussion on UBI but in an intellectually honest way. Will it be a guaranteed minimum income with graduated rates, will it be truly universal, does it replace existing welfare programs? It's a discussion we should already be having right now but will probably kick the can down the road.

[Brisketexan 105,478]

Regarding UBI.
I believe UBI will be necessary at some point in the near future and its important for everyone to start discussing the concept. It's a fairly complex topic, particularly within the discussion of Automation. Personally, I think the transition to greater automation will be painful for society and will create a situation that will defy the capitalism vs. socialism paradigm. The need for a UBI will not be about social justice but simply social stabilization.
Anyways, we do need to start having a national discussion on UBI but in an intellectually honest way. Will it be a guaranteed minimum income with graduated rates, will it be truly universal, does it replace existing welfare programs? It's a discussion we should already be having right now but will probably kick the can down the road.

You’re 100% correct.

You’re also adorable.

No way that conversation ever happens.

[Guest]

Maybe because I'm not very smart, but I can't wrap my mind around a UBI.

Are we basically stating that we are going to have a ton of people we should feel sorry for because we've created a world where they can't do anything to add value, so we should just pay a bare minimum to feed and clothe and house them so they don't revolt and the world devolves into hypothetical chaos?

Sounds like the root cause then is overpopulation?

[pyrohornIII 4,824]

You would think we would have enough work for people to do considering the shape our infrastructure is in.  Do like CCC and WPA and rework our national and state parks.  Build greenways in urban areas so people can grow their own vegetables, or someone else's.  Put together an army of health care workers that could take care of our elderly who won't have places or funds to stay in nursing homes, or hospice. 

Invest in alternative energy, that is a huge field about to really explode worldwide.  Pay them to tutor kids, or run more programs like Headstart.  Our volunteer base for small community firefighters and EMS is woefully short.  Pay some of those guys. 

They can add  value.  The problem is that all the money goes up into the corporations, and they run the politicians that make it work for them.  

We used to have a staff of volunteer EMTs, most of them retired from other occupations.  The regulations for EMTs has been rewritten over time to make it nearly impossible for any volunteer group to do that anymore.  All those changes were driven by hospitals who provide ambulance services, or private pay services.  They basically kept re -writing regulations to do away with competition.   Now our fire department has to hire medics and it's backbreaking financially.  There are tons of rural areas in the same boat. 

There is a lot that can be done to make things better for all, if we want.  The problem is not overpopulation, the problem is income disparity.   But no, we keep cutting funds to our schools and colleges.   Defund PBS, the arts...what about Peace Corps?   We have universities like Grambling trying to keep their doors open and our President and his band of thieves are concentrating on overseas trademarks and dumb selfish shit like that. 

There are those that take advantage of benefits like disability, food stamps, or other subsidy programs, but its not just the poor that do it.  Our corporations do it as well, but no one points that out.  

Go read up on tax abatements and other incentive programs to entice big box retailers and others into a community.   Then look at the figures as to who gets those breaks and who pays for them.   Many small towns bent over backwards to get their own Walmart...and it was the very businesses who Walmart competed with that made up the tax revenue Walmart was let off the hook for, and most of those businesses went under.  

I know it's the business model, that bigger and better replaces older and smaller.  I get that, but at some point we have to consider maybe that model is flawed.  

Or i guess we could just start letting the poor die to exposure or hunger.   That would solve your overpopulation, right cookie?  

No.  There are a lot of things our country could do to improve itself and at the same time make the transition.   We just have to elect people who want to do it, are smart enough to do it in a way that the majority of the country sees the short and long term benefits. 

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by pyrohornIII

[TKthunder2 5,010]

11 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I know that someday automation will replace every Bubba, Buford and Cletus on a drilling rig.  But until that day comes I will have a job because no algorithm can predict the stupid shit that Bubba, Buford and Cletus will pull on a daily basis.  We're talking 8 deviations of dumbassedry on a regular basis.

God bless you Bubba, Buford and Cletus.

I only spent 6 months in the industry but I know that they won’t replace human labor completely in that line of work anytime soon.  Absolutely there will be way automation can improve the most labor intensive processes but doing things like fixing Kelly drive isn’t going to be one of them anytime in the near future.  The cost will far outweigh the benefits.  The drilling crews overall head count could be reduced (and already has been over the last 30 years despite increased safety regulations and standards that required additional workers) but the process will not be anywhere close to being fully automated until we make the next great leap in technology.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,238]

3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I only spent 6 months in the industry but I know that they won’t replace human labor completely in that line of work anytime soon.  Absolutely there will be way automation can improve the most labor intensive processes but doing things like fixing Kelly drive isn’t going to be one of them anytime in the near future.  The cost will far outweigh the benefits.  The drilling crews overall head count could be reduced (and already has been over the last 30 years despite increased safety regulations and standards that required additional workers) but the process will not be anywhere close to being fully automated until we make the next great leap in technology.

The drilling crew size is smaller today than years ago, but the number of people on location is much higher than before.  When every little piece of equipment or gadget needs a babysitter you get higher headcounts.  I remember working on small inland barges where total POB (people on board) was around 30.  Now POB can be double that easily.

As someone posted earlier, be the person that maintains this shit and you'll be set for a long time.