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Game 4: The Citadel at Texas, 7 PM, LHN

Machinator

By Machinator
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VinyVango

VinyVango 689

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Looks like Citadel has one player, a freshman, taller than 6'7".   If Sims and DO don't play aggressive and use their size advantages right off the bat, I'd like to see them heading to the bench for Hayes and Hepa.  Aggression coupled with recognition of where the advantage lies needs to be the focus.

An emphasis needs to be placed on kicking the ball inside and getting it to the screener on the roll, even if it results in the defense collapsing and a quick pass back outside.  This is a game where the teams needs to show ability to quickly recognize the defense being played against them and utilize the advantages that are available.  That won't happen if we play a sedentary 4 out offense just flipping the ball around the perimeter looking for a 3 point shot.

I suspect Citadel will run it's crazy pace offense.  More transition opportunities than usual should be available this game.  We have a pretty athletic team (aside from DO).  Anything less that a 18+ point win at home against the Citadel would be a disappointment. 

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SA-KC_Horn

SA-KC_Horn 1295

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22 minutes ago, VinyVango said:

Looks like Citadel has one player, a freshman, taller than 6'7".   If Sims and DO don't play aggressive and use their size advantages right off the bat, I'd like to see them heading to the bench.

Didnt we have the same issue with ut-arlington last year? If we don't dominate down low, then serious issue for this going forward. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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(Tim Preston) Hoops Primer: The Citadel

When the 3-0 Longhorns host the Bulldogs from The Citadel this evening at 7:00 at the Erwin Center, Texas fans aren't just looking for a victory. They're looking for signs of improvement. Signs of a growing comfort level inside of the lineups. Signs of hope that this season could reach the moderately lofty expectations many of us placed on it before the games began.

The first disclaimer is this: Texas' defense is ****ing legit. Depending on who's on the floor at a given time, we generally have anywhere between three and five high level individual defenders on the court. Having two or three makes life easy on that end. Having four or five gives Shaka a ton of options and is resulting in the type of defensive efficiency that we've seen thus far (opponent strength notwithstanding).

So, I'm not going to touch on the defensive side of the ball.

Second disclaimer: The Citadel plays a break-neck, ultra fast style of basketball. So, if you're looking for Texas to iron out any of their half-court set struggles in this game, you'll need to do away with that hope. This one's going to be a track meet.

Here are some things I'll be looking for tonight.

The offensive identity

Or lack thereof, I suppose. These first three contests have been as troubling as any of the Longhorn's other issues from an offensive identity standpoint. The feedback from many fans and prognosticators has tended to be of the "Oh, great. Here we go again." variety. Which is understandable. Shaka's time at Texas has been pockmarked by offensive inefficiency (particularly from the perimeter) and long stretches where scoring simply doesn't happen. Unfortunately that's been the case, once again, this season.

The interesting case of Jase Febres.

One of the things we touched on in the podcast this week was the lightning rod that is Jase Febres and his impact on the offensive system when he's on the floor. 

Here's a few things about Jase that need to be said right off the bat...
Unless my notes are off, 100% of Jase's minutes have come when Matt Coleman is also on the floor with him. Right now, Jase has played in 60 of the possible 125 minutes for him and every single one of them has been with Coleman as well.
Coleman, on the other hand, has played 92 of the possible 125 minutes for him, meaning that 65% of Coleman's minutes have included Jase on the floor with him.
That's key because, at this point, Jase is the most one-dimensional perimeter player on the team. He's clearly worked hard to incorporate a diverse skill-set as an offensive player. He wants to be a more complete player, he's working hard at putting the ball on the floor more (with an understanding that he'll have more time as a shooter if the defense has to play him more honestly for that ability). This is not an attack piece on Jase. It's simply pointing out that, currently, the vast majority of his value on the offensive end is as a shooter. I don't believe that's me going out on too much of a limb.
Up to this point in the season, our interior players have not shown an ability to be multi-faceted, either. So, we tend to have shooters/slashers (Osetkowski and Hepa) or Pick&Roll/weakside rebounders (Sims and Hayes).
What does that stuff matter? 

Well, anytime Jase is on the floor, his top priority (on the offensive end) is to make himself available as a shooter, be shot ready and, hopefully, knock down 37% or above from deep (he's currently at 33%).

This is great. There are high level shooters on just about every team in the country whose job it is to help with floor spacing and knock down shots. Jase has more than enough talent to not only be one of those high level shooters, but potentially to be one of the better ones in the country. Talent hasn't quite translated to consistent production, but he's working.

*This next section is more than a little big conjecture*

Hepa and Febres are three point shooters (75% of Hepa's and 88% of Febres' attempts have been from deep). Osetkowski's numbers are more balanced, but I still consider him more of a perimeter player (for a big man) than I do an interior one. 

Now, if we can assume that pretty much one of either Osetkowski or Hepa is in the ball game (so far, that has been the case for all but, about, 70 seconds) that means that whenever Jase is on the floor, at least 40% of our lineup (at that moment) is a player who will shoot a large percentage of three point shots or, at least, is not a huge threat to do damage to the defense with the ball in their hands as a penetrator/creator.

And here's the issue. For instance, when Jase played in the first half against ULM, he only played nine minutes. He was 2/5 from the field, 1/4 from three (he even finished an and-one at the rim and completed the free throw, something he'd never done while at Texas). It wasn't some kind of terrible half of basketball.

And, yet, two big statistical problems emerged in that half of basketball for UT.
Texas attempted 16 three point shots in that half (they made five of them)
Texas attempted 16 two point shots in that half (they made six of them)
The second half flipped that script on its head.
Texas attempted 9 three point shots in that half (they made one of them)
Texas attempted 21 two point shots in that half (they made 14 of them)
Almost all of the rest of the numbers are, essentially, the same: 7 assists in the first, 5 in the second; 5 turnovers in the first, four in the second; 3/6 from the line in the first, 4/5 in the second; 5 offensive rebounds in the first, 4 in the second; 13 defensive rebounds in the first, 14 in the second; 3 steals in the first, 5 in the second...

Jase played 9 minutes in the first (putting up five shots), he played 3 in the second (putting up no shots).

****, Timmy, Get to the Point

This feels like a hit piece. I'm not trying to write a hit piece. It's not Jase's fault that Roach, Coleman and Long combined to shoot 4/15 in the first half. Just as it's not his fault that he was recruited as a shooter and Smart is starting him. 

I'd start him, too. And I have argued, and will continue to argue, that this team's best version almost assuredly includes an efficient shooting Febres as a focal point. 

But when Febres is on the bench, Texas immediately becomes a backcourt that features players who can do all of penetrate/facilitate/shoot.

This was in effect right off the rip in the second half (and especially when Texas went on their big, 16 point run) as the Longhorns forced ULM's defense to shift and rotate every single time down the floor.

Those shifts and rotation just don't happen as often when Jase is on the floor because his role is to be a spot up shooter who Texas can rely on as a safety valve off of kickouts or penetration.

So, I'll be keeping an eye on Jase, in particular, but also how the rest of the team functions when he's in the game.

How does Shaka attempt to create more dribble penetration when Jase is on the floor? How much higher can Jase's three point percentage go? How can we force the defense to rotate and shift more when Jase is on the floor?

I'm not sure how evident those things will be against The Citadel, but the answers (be them satisfactory or otherwise) to those questions will, in no small way, determine Texas' season.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14677

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40 minutes ago, Machinator said:

(Tim Preston) Hoops Primer: The Citadel

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

When the 3-0 Longhorns host the Bulldogs from The Citadel this evening at 7:00 at the Erwin Center, Texas fans aren't just looking for a victory. They're looking for signs of improvement. Signs of a growing comfort level inside of the lineups. Signs of hope that this season could reach the moderately lofty expectations many of us placed on it before the games began.

The first disclaimer is this: Texas' defense is ****ing legit. Depending on who's on the floor at a given time, we generally have anywhere between three and five high level individual defenders on the court. Having two or three makes life easy on that end. Having four or five gives Shaka a ton of options and is resulting in the type of defensive efficiency that we've seen thus far (opponent strength notwithstanding).

So, I'm not going to touch on the defensive side of the ball.

Second disclaimer: The Citadel plays a break-neck, ultra fast style of basketball. So, if you're looking for Texas to iron out any of their half-court set struggles in this game, you'll need to do away with that hope. This one's going to be a track meet.

Here are some things I'll be looking for tonight.

The offensive identity

Or lack thereof, I suppose. These first three contests have been as troubling as any of the Longhorn's other issues from an offensive identity standpoint. The feedback from many fans and prognosticators has tended to be of the "Oh, great. Here we go again." variety. Which is understandable. Shaka's time at Texas has been pockmarked by offensive inefficiency (particularly from the perimeter) and long stretches where scoring simply doesn't happen. Unfortunately that's been the case, once again, this season.

The interesting case of Jase Febres.

One of the things we touched on in the podcast this week was the lightning rod that is Jase Febres and his impact on the offensive system when he's on the floor. 

Here's a few things about Jase that need to be said right off the bat...
Unless my notes are off, 100% of Jase's minutes have come when Matt Coleman is also on the floor with him. Right now, Jase has played in 60 of the possible 125 minutes for him and every single one of them has been with Coleman as well.
Coleman, on the other hand, has played 92 of the possible 125 minutes for him, meaning that 65% of Coleman's minutes have included Jase on the floor with him.
That's key because, at this point, Jase is the most one-dimensional perimeter player on the team. He's clearly worked hard to incorporate a diverse skill-set as an offensive player. He wants to be a more complete player, he's working hard at putting the ball on the floor more (with an understanding that he'll have more time as a shooter if the defense has to play him more honestly for that ability). This is not an attack piece on Jase. It's simply pointing out that, currently, the vast majority of his value on the offensive end is as a shooter. I don't believe that's me going out on too much of a limb.
Up to this point in the season, our interior players have not shown an ability to be multi-faceted, either. So, we tend to have shooters/slashers (Osetkowski and Hepa) or Pick&Roll/weakside rebounders (Sims and Hayes).
What does that stuff matter? 

Well, anytime Jase is on the floor, his top priority (on the offensive end) is to make himself available as a shooter, be shot ready and, hopefully, knock down 37% or above from deep (he's currently at 33%).

This is great. There are high level shooters on just about every team in the country whose job it is to help with floor spacing and knock down shots. Jase has more than enough talent to not only be one of those high level shooters, but potentially to be one of the better ones in the country. Talent hasn't quite translated to consistent production, but he's working.

*This next section is more than a little big conjecture*

Hepa and Febres are three point shooters (75% of Hepa's and 88% of Febres' attempts have been from deep). Osetkowski's numbers are more balanced, but I still consider him more of a perimeter player (for a big man) than I do an interior one. 

Now, if we can assume that pretty much one of either Osetkowski or Hepa is in the ball game (so far, that has been the case for all but, about, 70 seconds) that means that whenever Jase is on the floor, at least 40% of our lineup (at that moment) is a player who will shoot a large percentage of three point shots or, at least, is not a huge threat to do damage to the defense with the ball in their hands as a penetrator/creator.

And here's the issue. For instance, when Jase played in the first half against ULM, he only played nine minutes. He was 2/5 from the field, 1/4 from three (he even finished an and-one at the rim and completed the free throw, something he'd never done while at Texas). It wasn't some kind of terrible half of basketball.

And, yet, two big statistical problems emerged in that half of basketball for UT.
Texas attempted 16 three point shots in that half (they made five of them)
Texas attempted 16 two point shots in that half (they made six of them)
The second half flipped that script on its head.
Texas attempted 9 three point shots in that half (they made one of them)
Texas attempted 21 two point shots in that half (they made 14 of them)
Almost all of the rest of the numbers are, essentially, the same: 7 assists in the first, 5 in the second; 5 turnovers in the first, four in the second; 3/6 from the line in the first, 4/5 in the second; 5 offensive rebounds in the first, 4 in the second; 13 defensive rebounds in the first, 14 in the second; 3 steals in the first, 5 in the second...

Jase played 9 minutes in the first (putting up five shots), he played 3 in the second (putting up no shots).

****, Timmy, Get to the Point

This feels like a hit piece. I'm not trying to write a hit piece. It's not Jase's fault that Roach, Coleman and Long combined to shoot 4/15 in the first half. Just as it's not his fault that he was recruited as a shooter and Smart is starting him. 

I'd start him, too. And I have argued, and will continue to argue, that this team's best version almost assuredly includes an efficient shooting Febres as a focal point. 

But when Febres is on the bench, Texas immediately becomes a backcourt that features players who can do all of penetrate/facilitate/shoot.

This was in effect right off the rip in the second half (and especially when Texas went on their big, 16 point run) as the Longhorns forced ULM's defense to shift and rotate every single time down the floor.

Those shifts and rotation just don't happen as often when Jase is on the floor because his role is to be a spot up shooter who Texas can rely on as a safety valve off of kickouts or penetration.

So, I'll be keeping an eye on Jase, in particular, but also how the rest of the team functions when he's in the game.

How does Shaka attempt to create more dribble penetration when Jase is on the floor? How much higher can Jase's three point percentage go? How can we force the defense to rotate and shift more when Jase is on the floor?

I'm not sure how evident those things will be against The Citadel, but the answers (be them satisfactory or otherwise) to those questions will, in no small way, determine Texas' season.

 

Interesting. Texas needs to be a 7 second or less offense. Playing in the half court negates one of the few advantages they have, a deep pool of athletic players that can run the floor.

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1645

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Just now, Machinator said:

That stretch from the under-12 to the under-8 was legitimately fun basketball. Shaka has to rethink the starting lineup, because we can't afford to take a 30-50% of the first half to get going against better teams.

Yeah i think it was a 10-0 run at one point.  16-16 to 26-16.  I sure would like to think that Shaka is experimenting with bodies and combinations at this point to solidify a solid rotation.

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dcar00

dcar00 14181

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5 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

We have zero outside shooting game. We will lose more games than not in the Big 12 if that doesn't change. 

rinse repeat year 4. its pretty demoralizing knowing it will never change as long as Shaka is coach.  we might be able to athelete ourselves to a sweet 16 one day but that's it.

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4668

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4 minutes ago, Texas25 said:

Um what? Thank god Citadel doesn't have a player taller than 6'7

EDIT: If that was sarcasm then forget what I said.

It was a good half defensively. This team dropped 80 on a top 25 team on the road. Outside of missed jumpers it was a good half. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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SDG

SDG 3319

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5 minutes ago, chemHORN said:

I did see it.  See that he is shooting 25 percent including that dunk?  He and Roach are a combined 1 of 10 from 3.  

Sorry, I thought you were being one of us “typical Texas fans” who shit on the present in hopes of the future.  I mean DO is the top performer so far.  

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