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Texas overachieving?

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Marfa Low Crown

Marfa Low Crown 2544

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7 minutes ago, UTDD said:

Herman has made it clear recently more than once now that he considers the team to be overachieving a bit.  I am curious if people generally agree with this statement and/or why he would be saying it.

Preemptively lowering expectations before the CCG? I don't know... whole thing sounds like some pussy shit Mack would have said. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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7 minutes ago, UTDD said:

Herman has made it clear recently more than once now that he considers the team to be overachieving a bit.  I am curious if people generally agree with this statement and/or why he would be saying it.

If you look at the issues in the trenches coming into the season on both sides of the ball it's hard to argue that this team isn't overachieving.  The OL in particular is playing far better than I expected in August. 

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txhorns

txhorns 2408

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I feel like we are about where we should be.  Lots of close games that have gone both for and against us.  I thought we were an 8-4 or 9-3 team going into the year.  I thought we would contend for the conference title and either just miss the title game or lose in it.  Winning the Big 12 is probably over achieving this year though.

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chase25

chase25 2048

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Just now, Marfa Low Crown said:

Preemptively lowering expectations before the CCG? I don't know... whole thing sounds like some pussy shit Mack would have said. 

He has also said multiple times that we can beat anyone in the country if we play our best (which is also a lie). Coaches say a lot of shit to the media knowing their players are listening. We are pretty much a 1 deep football team that has a chance to play for a conference title, I'd say that is overachieving even if only slightly. The only position we aren't 1 deep in is WR and RB (both Watson and Ingram are solid).

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rickyspub

rickyspub 801

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Preseason I expected us to be about where we are now. The losses outside of Maryland, wouldn't have been a surprise based on preseason expectations. I figured the 3 losses would likely have include USC for us to be in contention for the CCG.

Now after the Maryland and Tulsa game, I just hoped we wouldn't do any worse than last year.

Let's beat KU and let the rest sort itself out. But I'll now expect us to make the CCG next season.

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UTDD

UTDD 362

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1 minute ago, txhorns said:

I feel like we are about where we should be.  Lots of close games that have gone both for and against us.  I thought we were an 8-4 or 9-3 team going into the year.  I thought we would contend for the conference title and either just miss the title game or lose in it.  Winning the Big 12 is probably over achieving this year though.

Yeah, I am kind of with you on this, maybe a slight overachieving considering where the OL was last year.  I hoped we would go about 8-4 or 9-3 with 4ish swing games that could go either way from a 7-5 to 10-2 type season.  I kind of think this is what has happened.  If we beat WVU/OU in the title game, I would consider that an impressive achievement because I believe pound for pound right now OU/WVU have better talent to win right now although with ceilings and our freshman group in particular, that could change later.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29789

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We have a running game with two RBs that weren't on the roster last year and an OL that was tissue paper a year ago.

We have terrific QB. 

We have a reliable passing game due to the above and the emergence of a number of receivers.

We're thin on defense which I think is part of why they fade in the fourth quarter. But they did slow down OU and a few other offenses enough to be win or be in every game. As team, the D has performed below expectation but shows talent and potential in many individual players.

The team is meeting the most optimistic expectations of the summer. For just about everybody in football, doing so means you're overachieving.

 

 

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ousux

ousux 5587

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It's really hard to argue against that sentiment, at least for anyone who saw the turtle game.

If we win this week we'll have matched my pre season best case scenario, anything more is above and beyond anything I could imagine..even before dropping a deuce in the skins stadium.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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One also has to consider just how NASTY the 2018 offenses in this conference turned out to be.  If anyone had told me OU would score 45 in the Cotton Bowl and Texas would still win back in August, I'd have though they were smoking something.  Defense was the calling card in 2017.  This season the offense and defense have taken turns as the leading unit.  When both have been on at the same time, Texas has looked dominant as they did against ISU, TCU and USC.

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TheRRKid

TheRRKid 227

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21 minutes ago, txhorns said:

I feel like we are about where we should be.  Lots of close games that have gone both for and against us.  I thought we were an 8-4 or 9-3 team going into the year.  I thought we would contend for the conference title and either just miss the title game or lose in it.  Winning the Big 12 is probably over achieving this year though.

They beat OU and lost by one to WV...why would winning the conference title be overachieving?

Herman's more relevant quote in this discussion would be the 'their best is good enough to win.'

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idigTexas

idigTexas 2266

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11 minutes ago, Texas25 said:

He has also said multiple times that we can beat anyone in the country if we play our best (which is also a lie). Coaches say a lot of shit to the media knowing their players are listening. We are pretty much a 1 deep football team that has a chance to play for a conference title, I'd say that is overachieving even if only slightly. The only position we aren't 1 deep in is WR and RB (both Watson and Ingram are solid).

Are you saying that Herman doesn't really believe that, or that he is wrong?  Sure, if Texas is playing Alabama, and the Tide also play their best, we will likely get beat, but what if they have a bad game?  Are you saying that the Horns couldn't possibly beat 'Bama even if we play our best and they play poorly? 

As for whether Texas has overachieved, ask me after the Kansas game. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32701

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25 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

If you look at the issues in the trenches coming into the season on both sides of the ball it's hard to argue that this team isn't overachieving.  The OL in particular is playing far better than I expected in August. 

The reason it's correct to say we're overachieving is because the OL actually hasn't played well. We are 77th in the nation in total rushing per attempt and #45 in adjusted sack rate. Ehlinger and our wide receivers have allowed us to succeed despite mediocre (at best) offensive line play. Yes we are way ahead of the absolutely atrocious OL play from recent years, but it's good news when you realize that the OL still has a lot of room for improvement.

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Thermos H. Christ

Thermos H. Christ 478

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After Maryland and Tulsa I thought 3-9 or 4-8 were within the realm of possibility, and I thought it was unlikely we'd do better than 6-6. We've definitely overachieved from that perspective. But I think the reason Tom is stressing it is to avoid encouraging any cockiness. Don't give the players any ideas that they're going to win on talent or otherwise cruise to victory as the obviously superior team, keep telling them they can win but only if they stay laser focused and work hard and trust the process. 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

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We're playing much better than I expected in the pre-season and certainly after the first game.  Hats off to Herm - he has proven doubters like me wrong. 

OL and QB have improved tremendously and (unlike last year) we've decided the best strategy is to get the ball to our best players no matter what.  

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gecko

gecko 1104

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Before the season began I thought we'd lose to Maryland, OSU, and WVA....and get a real scare out of Baylor due to an Ehlinger injury  I was pretty sure it would come down to us having to beat KU and await the winner of OU v WVA to see who we would play in CCG.  So this has pretty much gone the way I saw it preseason.

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Xcalibur

Xcalibur 546

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Yes, we are overachieving relative to what we were expecting going into this season.  The key difference has been the emergence of Ehlinger as the best Texas quarterback since Colt.  Try to picture for a moment what our record would be this season if we still had Heard/Swoopes playing qb.

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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12639

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1 minute ago, gecko said:

Before the season began I thought we'd lose to Maryland, OSU, and WVA....and get a real scare out of Baylor due to an Ehlinger injury  I was pretty sure it would come down to us having to beat KU and await the winner of OU v WVA to see who we would play in CCG.  So this has pretty much gone the way I saw it preseason.

giphy.webp

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Thermos H. Christ

Thermos H. Christ 478

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10 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

Are you saying that Herman doesn't really believe that, or that he is wrong?  Sure, if Texas is playing Alabama, and the Tide also play their best, we will likely get beat, but what if they have a bad game?  Are you saying that the Horns couldn't possibly beat 'Bama even if we play our best and they play poorly? 

Yeah, with the possible exception of Bama, we could and probably would beat anyone in the country if we played our best game of the year and they played their worst. Clemson has looked crazy dominant on their best days this year, but they barely escaped aggy and Syracuse. If Texas played to the absolute peak of our potential for four quarters and Clemson had a game worse than the aggy and cuse ones, we'd win. Likewise with ND (close calls against the likes of Pitt and Ball State), and on down the list.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The reason it's correct to say we're overachieving is because the OL actually hasn't played well. We are 77th in the nation in total rushing per attempt and #45 in adjusted sack rate. Ehlinger and our wide receivers have allowed us to succeed despite mediocre (at best) offensive line play. Yes we are way ahead of the absolutely atrocious OL play from recent years, but it's good news when you realize that the OL still has a lot of room for improvement.

That's fair.  I expected below average OL play and hoped for merely average.  On those measures the Texas OL looks a bit above average.  I'm not sure sack rate reflects just how much time our QBs are getting in the pocket when opponents do not blitz.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25783

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43 minutes ago, UTDD said:

Yeah, I am kind of with you on this, maybe a slight overachieving considering where the OL was last year.

Oh, this is nonsense. Our OL lacked two things last year -- injury luck and coaching.

46 minutes ago, Texas25 said:

We are pretty much a 1 deep football team

This is mostly correct. We're good if our starters are healthy, and not able to reload if the good players go down -- not yet, anyway. You already mentioned the exceptions where we're 2-deep. I'd add that at DL and LB, I'm not sure we're even 1-deep; there are holes.

But I don't think we're unable to beat anyone in the country. We would need a lot of lucky breaks to beat Bama -- basically we'd have to get all of them and them getting none -- but it could happen, if we could get some turnovers on their offense (maybe) and scheme around their amazing DL (possible).

The only thing that's really surprised me this year is our offense. Never thought I'd see a Tim Beck offense put more than 30 points on anyone.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25783

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9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That's fair.  I expected below average OL play and hoped for merely average.  On those measures the Texas OL looks a bit above average.  I'm not sure sack rate reflects just how much time our QBs are getting in the pocket when opponents do not blitz.

Below average play was underrating them. Our first team is largely good-enough upperclassmen and Hand is a damned good coach. We should've expected average. We got above average. 

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20179

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32 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

The OL is average, the defense is beat the shit up. I don't think Texas has played many downs with their projected starting defensive personnel all season.

Exactly what I've thought all year. We started the Maryland game with Wheeler out for a half, and then Gary Johnson got the boot for targeting. We have had players out with injuries in pretty much every single game. I wonder how many snaps our ideal starting defensive lineup has actually been on the field together.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32701

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23 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That's fair.  I expected below average OL play and hoped for merely average.  On those measures the Texas OL looks a bit above average.  I'm not sure sack rate reflects just how much time our QBs are getting in the pocket when opponents do not blitz.

Agree that our pass blocking is above average. Our run blocking, though, is well below average. I didn't know what the hell I was looking at when Watson burst through ISU's line untouched on Saturday.

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Sejjr

Sejjr 3246

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5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

SIAP..... 

How many 1st & 2nd Team All Conference players does Texas end up with for this Season and who are they??

LJH??    Cosmi??  Omenihu??  B.Jones??

 

 

Sam is absolutely playing at All-Conference level. But he will never pass Grier or Ewok unforunately. Kris Boyd will get votes I imagine. Omenihu is 1st team for sure. 

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Newy25

Newy25 7638

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43 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The reason it's correct to say we're overachieving is because the OL actually hasn't played well. We are 77th in the nation in total rushing per attempt and #45 in adjusted sack rate. Ehlinger and our wide receivers have allowed us to succeed despite mediocre (at best) offensive line play. Yes we are way ahead of the absolutely atrocious OL play from recent years, but it's good news when you realize that the OL still has a lot of room for improvement.

The line is one of the best in pass protection in the league. Unless the Big 12 is significantly down in pass rushers our line has done as well as any line in the conference keeping a clean pocket for Sam. The meat on the bone is getting better running lanes and better movement up front from the interior of our line. The question is, can Okafor and company do a better job? That’s what I hope to see next year. 

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Machinator

Machinator 32097

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9 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

SIAP..... 

How many 1st & 2nd Team All Conference players does Texas end up with for this Season and who are they??

LJH??    Cosmi??  Omenihu??  B.Jones??

 

 

WR is absolutely stacked in this conference. LJH is playing at a first-team All-Conference level but might get bumped down.

Cosmi is a stud but I don't know enough about OL play on the other teams to say whether he's a first-teamer. I imagine OU has someone who will get the nod.

Omenihu should be a first-teamer.

Jones' injury will probably keep him out of consideration.

Johnson, Boyd, and Nelson could all get votes.

Andrew Beck doesn't have the stats to get the all-conference nod but he might be honorable mention. Ehlinger should definitely get honorable mention.

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Bill Lumbergh

Bill Lumbergh 7170

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48 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

OL and QB have improved tremendously and (unlike last year) we've decided the best strategy is to get the ball to our best players no matter what.  

This is one of the most surprising things in the turnaround this year.

Last year, I'm not saying we had a player like LJH, but if we had I feel like he would've been on the sideline for >50% of snaps. 

I don't know what clicked this year and made us decide to let our best players play on most downs, but it has been a nice turnaround on an infuriating trend. 

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chase25

chase25 2048

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1 hour ago, idigTexas said:

Are you saying that Herman doesn't really believe that, or that he is wrong?  Sure, if Texas is playing Alabama, and the Tide also play their best, we will likely get beat, but what if they have a bad game?  Are you saying that the Horns couldn't possibly beat 'Bama even if we play our best and they play poorly? 

As for whether Texas has overachieved, ask me after the Kansas game. 

Is there a reason you are ignoring the obvious assumption in my post? If Tua was injured, Alabama turned the ball over 4 times, and our entire team played the game of their life, then we could win. I'm operating under the assumption that Alabama wouldn't absolutely implode if they played us. Don't play stupid, you know what I mean't. When someone says their best is good enough to beat anyone, 99.9% of the time, they are saying that with the intent that their best is good regardless of what the opponent does. Not "Our best is good enough, as long as the Alabama team plane crashes".

Stating the obvious, no shit if we lose to Kansas the season is a serious underachievement, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we beat the not even one dimensional Jayhawks.

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Magus Ossis

Magus Ossis 2784

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“Overachieving” in football, to me, is tantamount to “well-coached.” We have been well-described in this thread as 1-deep. With one full recruiting class in his box of “toys,” (his word, not mine), Herman has made a huge difference. The book on Sam was lots of heart but not reliable in danger situations. He is now the B12 record holder for most consecutive attempts without an INT. Our OL had no one exciting in development and no proven blue chip talent expected for ‘18. We are RSing promising guys and getting average play from the line of misfit temps’n’toys. Our only stud RB prospect was hurt. Now we have a Fr and a transfer playing solid ball. We struggle to be even one deep on D, but looked pretty good last week with a couple of notable true Fr named Foster and Sterns starting. 24 games removed from the mathematically least-successful regime in our entire history, we are one win over the conference doormat away from ending a 9-year title game drought. We may lose the CCG, or even Friday, and we will certainly have other setbacks. But this is what a strong hand on the tiller looks like.

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25783

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59 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

http://www.adjustedstats.com/boxes/2018gm0681.txt

Shawn Watson is Pitt's offensive coordinator.

Well, well. Blind squirrels and nuts and all that.

You know, honestly, I think the team is underachieving. Not in the sense of meeting or beating expectations, but in the sense that they play to their potential against good opponents and in big games, but they play down to the weaker opponents. I think if they played to a standard, we'd have fewer close games and a better record.

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Sir Mikie Maik

Sir Mikie Maik 6

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1 hour ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

This is one of the most surprising things in the turnaround this year.

Last year, I'm not saying we had a player like LJH, but if we had I feel like he would've been on the sideline for >50% of snaps. 

I don't know what clicked this year and made us decide to let our best players play on most downs, but it has been a nice turnaround on an infuriating trend. 

IMHO Sam Ellinger maturity and better decision making in 2018 vs 2017 is the biggest difference …

2018 version would have given us the edge in losses against USC, OK St and TTech

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