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NCAA Week 14 (Conference Title Games)

VolenteHawk

By VolenteHawk
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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Boise -2.5 Just don't see them losing on the blue stuff at home

Wash -4 Playing good football now, Gaskin running hard, Browning as well.  Utah has just had too many injuries.  Got some gifts on Saturday night or else they lose to BYU

OSU -13.5 Wreaks of that '14 title game when OSU disemboweled Wisco 59-0 and marched into the Final Four

Hate this chalk but really like these 3.

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Texas?  Ehlinger's clearly not healthy.   He missed on more throws Friday than he had in the previous 10 games.   Just seems like he may need the offseason to heal completely.  Until then our offense just isn't going to completely click, even more so if Herman (tries to) tell Ehlinger to stay away from the run.  Good luck w/ that. 

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11756

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7 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Texas?  Ehlinger's clearly not healthy.   He missed on more throws Friday than he had in the previous 10 games.   Just seems like he may need the offseason to heal completely.  Until then our offense just isn't going to completely click, even more so if Herman (tries to) tell Ehlinger to stay away from the run.  Good luck w/ that. 

I agree about Sam not being healthy, but since its now end of year, and conf champ game, I can see Herman giving Sam a full green light to go.     Shane is obviously much more prepared to be the backup than he was against Baylor, and if Sam gets hurt- well, he's got 3 weeks to heal.

I guess my homer might kick in and I take the ML for 2 units for my end of year hurrah

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pops

pops 6980

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10 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Vegas is absolutely begging for UT money. Hanging the 0.5 on OU.  I was gung ho on betting UT but doing a double take now.  Maybe I’ll wager less and just hit the money line Texas.  

Stinky as OP mentioned above.  

Yep... The hook makes this one look just flat weird. I thought they would set it on the other side and beg for ou money. 

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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21 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Vegas is absolutely begging for UT money. Hanging the 0.5 on OU.  I was gung ho on betting UT but doing a double take now.  Maybe I’ll wager less and just hit the money line Texas. 

Pretty much where I’m at. I’d have been more comfortable grabbing 6.5 than betting into a position the books are taking. There is already OU money out there, so I’ll probably hang around and grab a little bit of Texas ML at some point. Not gonna mess with the spread.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32845

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Objectively speaking I don't have an issue with Oklahoma being favored by over a touchdown. A simple power rating system would have it higher than that (mine has it a little over 10). The issue is that Texas seems to play everyone close and Oklahoma's defense keeps most teams close. It's a strange game to handicap to be honest.

Edited by Huckleberry
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NowThis

NowThis 931

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in the first meeting, UT should have won comfortably as we all noted that they took their foot off the gas. 

WV really should have won last week, one unfortunate OOB call, and 2 fumbles returned for TDs make for a 3 TD swing.

My only issue is injuries to Sam shoulder and the status of Brandon Jones. I don't want Locke out there for too long as Murray will kill him.  We also need to spy Murray with 2 players for hi s running. 

IMO take Texas +7.5 but make it small.  I think UT can make some defensive plays that WV cannot. 

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Fud

Fud 9551

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18 minutes ago, Xcalibur said:

Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind staying away from "stinky" spreads?  Is the concern that Vegas knows something about the game that the public doesn't?  What about the other angle--that Vegas is just undervaluing one team?

Funny spreads are ones that beg the average sports Joe to bet on the game because the spread looks so obviously wrong and is such an obviously easy bet. It's the game that most sticks out to people, so the general public bets heavy on one side (typically, the pros or "sharps" take the other side). How the public perceives the matchup doesn't meet the reality. 

If you're able to get trustworthy betting numbers, specifically the number of bets on each side and the amount of money on each side, and are able to track how the spread moves, you can figure out which side the public is heavily on, and fade the public, and have a better chance than usual to win. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21139

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9 hours ago, Xcalibur said:

Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind staying away from "stinky" spreads?  Is the concern that Vegas knows something about the game that the public doesn't?  What about the other angle--that Vegas is just undervaluing one team?

If you’ve gambled a long time...You see where Vegas puts that hook to get some lopsided action. They win way more of those then they lose.  I consider way more 65% or so.  

Its a common misconception that Vegas is hell bent on getting equal money on both sides.  They’ll often let a lopsided game stay that way to kickoff.  

Reverse line movement is where they have more money on one team but continue to move the line the other way.  Proceed w caution.  

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bluto

bluto 4912

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6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

If you’ve gambled a long time...You see where Vegas puts that hook to get some lopsided action. They win way more of those then they lose.  I consider way more 65% or so.  

Its a common misconception that Vegas is hell bent on getting equal money on both sides.  They’ll often let a lopsided game stay that way to kickoff.  

Reverse line movement is where they have more money on one team but continue to move the line the other way.  Proceed w caution.  

Agree with middle paragraph and drives me nuts when that's ("even money") parroted as gospel 

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SDG

SDG 3319

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Fuck it. 

Ohio State -14.5 (-115)(321) Northwestern Wildcats @ (322) Ohio ST Buckeyes 1U

Boise State -3 (+105)(317) Fresno State Bulldogs @ (318) Boise State Broncos 1U

Akron +30 (-110)(331) Akron Zips @ (332) South Carolina Gamecocks 1U

Texas (#19) +8 (-115)(311) Texas Longhorns @ (312) Oklahoma Sooners 1U

Under 78 (-115)(311) Texas Longhorns @ (312) Oklahoma Sooners 1U

Utah +5.5 (-110)(305) Utah Utes @ (306) Washington Huskies 1U

 

Might add Stan Cal but not sure how I feel about it.  

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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Alabama -13  I can't get over the fact that Alabama is better this season and Georgia is worse than last year.   They're not a bad team, by any stretch.   But Alabama has Tagovailoa this years and a slew of great WRs and a three really good RBs that are fresh, all of which have carried between 80 and 120 times this season.   Defensively, that depth in the 2H makes an opposing team look like it is playing in slow motion 

Feels like a 45-20 type game. 

 

 

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pops

pops 6980

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I put 10 bucks on Utah to win the PAC 12 pre season @ +1200. So, not really enough to hedge therefore I'm saying fuck it and pushing more in on Utah +165. 

I think these are the two best defenses in the PAC and it will probably come down to which one forces the most turnovers. 

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5261

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1 hour ago, NowThis said:

Bama game feels funny as the Tide haven't dominated in the last 2 weeks. I'd go for a Live Play mid Q2 on this game.  They are a twisted Tua ankle away from losing. 

Hurts is pretty much healthy now.  He led them to the national title game last season - he's not Tua but Bama would be fine if something happened..

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pops

pops 6980

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28 minutes ago, achooloco said:

woah big spender!...jk! everyone here seems professional or betting units but this is my level, i dig it. fuck it, it's my birthday, ou sucks. hook'em.

Nah. I've done the big spender thing... If I really like a game I might put a hundred on it now, but I'm usually 50 or 25 per play. Sweating thousands over 18-22 year olds got pretty stressful. 

And you pick your unit. When I'm betting baseball, a unit is 10 bucks just because there are so many games. Unit is only relative to you. 

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SDG

SDG 3319

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Same; I'm playing for pure entertainment.  I put the $500 ($750 with bonus) I normally use for fantasy football in my account to start the season.  I had hopes it would last me all season before running out.  I'm at break even for the year so I'm gonna roll it into March Madness.   

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achooloco

achooloco 1067

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9 minutes ago, pops said:

Nah. I've done the big spender thing... If I really like a game I might put a hundred on it now, but I'm usually 50 or 25 per play. Sweating thousands over 18-22 year olds got pretty stressful. 

And you pick your unit. When I'm betting baseball, a unit is 10 bucks just because there are so many games. Unit is only relative to you. 

yeah, figured as much. all good. just joshin'. 

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