Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Bevo 13576]

19 hours ago, immamac said:

has russia invaded ukraine yet, I was told there was an invasion happening.

Yeah, I thought tomorrow was suppose to be the day.

[sidis 9825]

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

You're assuming that something won't happen to the birds between now and then.

We need more memes from Ukraine.

 

 

Ukraine should have replied with this:

[atomheartbevo 89648]

6 hours ago, Skipper said:

So given the above (if I have it right) the indirect chaos is a massive W for Putin/Russia.   Sure, it may further isolate Russia from the West but that is probably somewhat baked in no matter how this plays out. 

The problem with that scenario is that he puts himself at the mercy of China.  China's GDP - $14.7 trillion.  Russia's GDP = $1.5 trillion. Hell, Apple is worth more than twice Russia's GDP for perspective.

He has leverage with the West right now.  He doesn't have much leverage with China.

That doesn't seem like something a strongman would normally do, because China could then bend he and Russia to its will.

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

 In the recent past, when Russia's economy goes south, so do Putin's public approval levels with subsequent protests in the streets.

..........

So, given the possibility of an unpopular war (and a potentially bloody insurgency) that would absolutely devastate their economy, I think we'd see the likelihood of mass protests back in the streets. And, I think, Putin's current favorable ratings are already pretty down due to their pandemic response.

Yes, I recognize that Russia is not a free country and also that there would be a big crackdown on protestors, but I think that Putin understands the risk that his government could be toppled given his previous reactions to protests in Belarus and more recently Kazakhstan (along with Ukraine back a few years ago). It is absolutely his worst fear, and I think he recognizes that it could spiral. As a KGB agent, he witnessed first-hand how protests can be contagious and how they spread across the Warsaw Pact, causing the dominoes to fall across the eastern part of the continent until it finally reached the Motherland.

Every troop/resource that's in the street dealing with protestors is another resource that can't be used in the invasion, even if it's some REMF that's normally driving a truck or unloading trains or whatever and funneling supplies to the frontline troop and is all of the sudden pressed into riot control duties.

That could get dicey if there are large protests or if things get bogged down in Ukraine.  The priority would have to be on wiping out the protests back home (which could make the protests worse/bigger), but if that hurts them in Ukraine and they start to take heavy casualties/lose face, that could make things even worse back home, and also would just be embarrassing as hell to Putin.

[atomheartbevo 89648]

Has Putin threatened to turn off gas to Western Europe?

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Putin is always really careful to frame any gas delivery issues as a natural consequence of Ukrainian behavior or market issues or supplying domestic customers and would never say “I’ll turn off the tap.”  
 

Beyond the immediate infrastructure issues, the Kremlin dreads a decoupling with Europe on energy.  That is the whole point of NS2.  Without European reliance on Russian gas, Russia is essentially a rogue state and is left with only its military and nuclear weapons as a reason to be paid attention to.  A big Belarus with rockets, if you will. Russia has become more increasingly more isolated and energy decoupling would do it.  All of a sudden Russia looks like North Korea in terms of Western and global attitudes.  A creaky, cranky, dangerous time bomb that depends on China economically and for any global political cover.  Almost zero cost to isolate and not an attractive visit location for heads of state.

Russia vis-a-vis Europe on gas is kind of the violent alcoholic husband who has a smart, pretty wife at home.  He may moan about how he’s bringing home money and she doesn’t contribute and would be out in the cold without him. But if she actually moved to get a job and open her own bank account, he’d shut that shit down pretty quick. Russia needs it as a tool of coercion because it’s one of the few they have (there are no carrots).

[dimyh 1874]

8 hours ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, I thought tomorrow was suppose to be the day.

Any moment now

[dimyh 1874]

Goddamit late night intertrons

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

As expected, Germans starting to hit back at US pressure in the big papers. Top story in Die Welt this morning:

 

Quote

"Then you also have to talk about U.S. oil imports from Russia"

The USA expects Germany to stop the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the Americans are not mentioning the fact that they themselves import oil from Russia on a large scale. Displeasure is now being voiced about this in the Bundestag.


On the flight back from his inaugural visit to Washington on Monday evening, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) was half-jokingly asked to say "Nord Stream 2." So that he would have uttered the irritant word at least once on this trip. Scholz did. In all his public statements, he had consistently avoided calling the controversial gas pipeline by its name.

 

There was great anger about Scholz's silence in the US media. The Americans, on the other hand, did not want to talk about their own raw material supplies from Russia. The question of whether the U.S. planned to prevent the import of Russian oil into its own country in the event of a conflict went unanswered by U.S. President Joe Biden. For good reason. After all, Russia is an important energy supplier for the United States.
 

The U.S. imports by far the largest quantities of oil from Canada. But Russia is becoming increasingly important as a source of oil for Americans. In 2021, the Russians even replaced Mexico as the second most important exporter of oil and petroleum products to the U.S. in some months, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
 

The Americans, politicians as well as the media, had tried a lot to press the chancellor to make a clear statement that a shutdown of Nord Stream 2 could be part of sanctions against Russia, should Vladimir Putin give his troops the order to march towards Ukraine.

As a result, the U.S. government has no interest in addressing a halt to oil imports from Russia as a sanctions tool - while at the same time, however, pressing the German government to threaten a Nord Stream 2 blockade.

 

Scholz is silent on this. Like Biden, he is concerned with emphasizing unity among the allies, because that is precisely what Putin wants to undermine. But in Germany, the U.S. strategy is certainly being questioned.
 

"Oil exports reel billions into Putin's coffers"

"The question of whether Russia's extensive oil deliveries to the United States should not also be part of a sanctions package is legitimate," Michael Roth (SPD), the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, tells WELT. "We have agreed that in the event of Russian aggression, all options can be on the table. So if everything is on the table, nothing is beside or under the table," Roth said. But the question of what specific impact that might have on U.S. oil imports should be clarified in confidential talks.
 

In order to keep Putin as much in the dark as possible about possible sanctions, Berlin and Washington are keeping quiet about whether a U.S. blockade of Russian oil could be part of the countermeasures. SPD foreign policy expert Nils Schmid demands that it should be: "When you start talking about individual points like Nord Stream 2, you also have to talk about other individual points like U.S. oil imports from Russia," says the foreign policy spokesman for his parliamentary group. "After all, the Russians haven't earned a dime from the new pipeline yet, while oil exports are pouring billions into Putin's coffers."
 

The opposition in the Bundestag is also urging the Americans to openly acknowledge the possibility of an embargo on Russian oil. "All conceivable sanctions against Russia in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine must be borne jointly by Europe and America. In addition to the shutdown of Nord Stream 2, this also includes an import ban on Russian oil to America," said CDU member of parliament and energy policy expert Mark Helfrich.

 

Criticism of the U.S. government's actions is also coming from other opposition factions. "The U.S. is proving to be duplicitous when it refers to Europe's dependence on Russian gas while at the same time massively increasing its own oil imports from Russia," says Linke Party politician and chairman of the Bundestag Committee on Climate Protection and Energy, Klaus Ernst.
 

And AfD co-faction leader Tino Chrupalla explains, "The fact that the U.S. wants to coerce Germany into importing expensive and environmentally damaging fracked gas from America, while itself obtaining inexpensive oil from Russia, is dishonest among allies. The German government must act in Germany's interests and not accept this without contradiction."

 

CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter points out, however, that gas deliveries via Nord Stream 2 cannot be compared with U.S. oil imports from Russia: "Russia's main aim with Nord Stream 2 is to eliminate Ukraine from gas transit to Europe, and it opens up the option for Moscow to increase political and military pressure on Ukraine without jeopardizing the gas business with Western Europe. This is not so true for the U.S.," the member of the Bundestag said. "In this respect, it is understandable that the U.S. does not put Nord Stream 2 on the scale as a primarily political project with its own economic ties."
 

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article236801219/Nord-Stream-2-Dann-auch-ueber-US-Oelimporte-aus-Russland-sprechen.html

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34705]

A bit from the major Czech economic daily on European integration, federalism, and what the crisis is teaching them: 

Quote

While Macron is broadly active and spreading (bizarre) proposals, German Chancellor Olaf Sholz is comparatively quiet, even when he has been in Washington and is planning to visit Moscow and Kyiv. Germany, which under Merkel played a prime role in diplomacy with Moscow, is simply on some sort of sideways track. Scholz is beginning to look childish in his avoidance of a clear statement about Nord Stream 2.

The United States would by happy if Europe took the problem of its own defense and security more into its own hands. The question is, are the representatives of European nations competent to do so, when they always and in every circumstance choose to place their own state’s business and political interests first and only later broader European interests. 

You have to expect this German reaction but the argument about oil doesn’t fit at all. No one has proposed stopping the import of even a molecule of Russian gas to Germany. NS2 introduces no new capacity. It’s all about turning off a delivery method that Russia can use as a geopolitical tool. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A bit from the major Czech economic daily on European integration, federalism, and what the crisis is teaching them: 

You have to expect this German reaction but the argument about oil doesn’t fit at all. No one has proposed stopping the import of even a molecule of Russian gas to Germany. NS2 introduces no new capacity. It’s all about turning off a delivery method that Russia can use as a geopolitical tool. 

Yeah, I am not saying it holds water, but it will with the German public who is getting sick of the entire situation and is getting tired of being preached at by the US.

 

The Germans are slow to get rolling when it comes to breaking with the US, but the wheels are now turning. This is playing out exactly like Iraq War 2. And Scholz isn't nearly the bulldog that Schröder was, but the next chancellor is going to have a serious set of balls and is very much prepared to move toward an independent way...and the rate Chancellor Scholz is going in the polls, "Chancellor" Merz is going arrive a lot sooner than any of us thought. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

16 hours ago, Skipper said:

So I'm not going to even pretend I'm in the weeds enough to know the direct strategic cost/benefit analysis Russia is weighing (i.e., if hypothetically US and Europe were publicly neutral, what Putin would gain from a long term war/occupation weighed against the material losses they would suffer).   But the clear indirect benefits are intriguing based on this thread.

First, I think it's safe to say that if Putin attacks, strictly as it relates to the U.S., he further divides this country.  Because no matter what action or inaction the Biden administration takes, the talking heads on the right (and all political opponents) will criticize him incessantly and use it as further proof he's a terrible President.  I mean that's just what our shitty country does (both sides) absent a direct attack like 9/11.

If Putin attacks it bogs Macron's agenda down as referenced on prior page while also putting a L in his column with respect to his attempted diplomacy efforts.  So takes France down a peg.

But most of all it puts the US and Germany in a precarious position as you outlined above.  If Germany kills NS2 (particularly if combined with rolling blackouts) it fuels anti-American sentiment within Germany to new levels and further divides the US and Western Europe.  If the US indirectly kills NS2 via sanctions, it's the same result but worse (from a US perspective) as we've now arguably encroached on Germany's sovereignty with respect to its own domestic issues (as Shady outlined) and have the potential downstream fallout of a larger decoupling from the U.S.-centered financial/ business system throughout Europe.

So given the above (if I have it right) the indirect chaos is a massive W for Putin/Russia.   Sure, it may further isolate Russia from the West but that is probably somewhat baked in no matter how this plays out.  It seems like Russia could instigate a conflict (justifying with whatever they think their best play is from an available propaganda standpoint), let it play out long enough to cause all of the indirect chaos outlined above, and then negotiate peace terms that effectively unwound any impact on NS2.  (As discussed on this thread Germany has consistently been a willing business partner)

I fully appreciate that is all elementary level analysis, and unwinding any impact on NS2 might be more easier said than done, but curious what the experts on this board think.  I'm just trying to get inside Putin's head from a game theory perspective and what he has to gain and lose by an actual invasion.

 

I think you have this pretty well nailed-down. IMO, the chaos has been on balance a W for Putin…so far, at least. He has absolutely laid bare the fault lines between EU/NATO member states. He is facilitating the removal of any final vestiges of empathy that the Germans have for certain East Europeans and the stage is already being set for a new Chancellor in Germany who is at least open to the idea of removing any Merkelian velvet glove to leverage all those German euros over the East. There are already rumblings about that in the press here…it is basically, “Wait, what? We give billions to the Poles and the Ukrainians to fix their backwards infrastructures and they are going to continually bring up National Socialism and blast us in the international media because we don’t want to give the nutters running Ukraine our weapons or allow them to have continued influence over our gas supply as a transit state? Ok, we’ll see about that once this blows over.” Of course it isn’t stated this way, and this is of course going to be packaged in full-on Euro-diplo-speak and carried out by the next Chancellor, but its coming in some form or another. The view here is that the EU is hamstrung by the concept of each and every nation being able to thwart a move by the rest of the block and in order to truly carry out change/self-determination, that is going to have to be reined in, and German chauvinism is going to inevitably come back to the age old German criticism of the EU “we pay the cost to be the boss here.” Of course, @956 Worldwide’s prior post about the Czech view on federalism perfectly encapsulates the view of the other side on this.
 

And there is the completely neglected coverage of how rickety the internal Ukrainian situation is getting by the day due to the external pressure on an already dysfunctional and ruthless domestic Ukrainian political landscape. There is absolutely a strong argument to be made that the existence of the Russian pressure alone is fracturing the existing political environment. Anyone who says that Ukrainians are rallying around their leadership at the moment is straight lying or uninformed. The exact opposite is happening. The former president, Petro Poroshenko, a first rate corrupt oligarch con-man has now regained the lead in the polls over Zelensky and is exploiting every day of this tension for his own gain, along with the pro-Russian elements who are doing the same. And if Ukraine descends into intra-Ukrainian bickering and chaos, which is truly the Ukrainian way, all the more benefit for Putin.
 

And the divisions between Western Europe and the US right now are glaring and to a large degree are being papered over as simple “neighborly disputes” in the media. From Putin’s standpoint, the mere threat of military conflict in Ukraine has been enough to generate public degree of divergence within the western block. If anyone thinks that there is going to be a “rally ‘round Ukraine” effect here in Germany if Putin goes actually in, well, I have a shiny new German-engineered bridge to sell. At most, there would be a short moment of collective condemnation until the impact actually hit Germany, and then there would be complete outrage throughout the electorate. And that outrage would be directed everywhere…Russia, the current German Govt, Ukraine, the US, and perhaps even NATO itself, as Stoltenberg is seen here is far, far too belligerent and inflammatory for his specific role. No one can accurately say who would bear the brunt outside of the current coalition government, but there would be enough displeasure to go around.
 

But from a strategic perspective, why invade? What could Putin possibly gain that isn’t currently unfolding due to the mere escalation of pressure? Both in the EU and within Ukraine? He doesn’t want to invade and occupy Ukraine…why would he? The only piece of Ukrainian land that contains strategic value for Russia is Crimea, which is already a fait accompli. They don’t need the space, and they don’t need the resources, and I just don’t buy that he would do such a ridiculous thing for some idea of East Slav romanticism. He would inherit nothing but problems. He is not stupid enough to believe that he is going to be able to install some pro-Russian stooge to run the place after invading and withdrawing…the country is far too galvanized against Russia and there are far too many weapons lying around to secure a pro-Russian Govt’s monopoly on violence. Any such puppet-regime would be completely fucked the second Russian troops withdrew. They just wouldn’t have the numbers for that. So in that light, I just don’t see why he would invade. Attack, yes...sustained invasion, I just can't see it. But he has diplomatic concessions yet to secure, which to a large degree justifies his continuing to go "all in". But hell, I admit I could be wrong.

 

Additional ramblings spoilered for length below...

Spoiler

And I know that I am biased because my life is deeply rooted here, but I have objectively tried to determine which country has the most to potentially lose in this situation and which has the least. And outside of the obvious answer being Ukraine itself, Germany would be the top “loser” when it comes to those not directly involved with hostilities. And the US would be the least impacted. There is no upside for Germany if this thing goes hot. None. There is actually some upside geopolitically for the US if it does (looking at this purely transactionally and excluding ideas of right/wrong, democracies/authoritarianism etc). And to be clear, I am in no way saying that the US wants something to go sideways here. Not at all. But I am saying that the US has much, much more room to play within the confines of this conflict than Germany does. If it goes hot, the value of a NATO which is increasingly seen as erratic and adventurous in certain powerful corners of Europe is reinforced in much of Europe. The age-old US IR nightmare of increased Berlin-Moscow coziness is halted. The US arms industry gets tons of additional revenue to substitute for decreasing need in Afghanistan/ME. Germany becomes much more disposed out of necessity to opening up port terminals to accept US LNG, which we currently do not have in any significant way and have traditionally been opposed to investing in. Again, that is in no way to say that the US wants this to happen…not at all. But it is to say that even in the worst case scenario, the US doesn’t get purely downside here. Germany does.
 

And in some ways, the German public is still playing catch up on this topic as to how bad this could really get beyond the worst case scenario. They discuss blackouts and they discuss status quo, but there is a looooootttt of “in between” that is also going to be seen as intolerable. Last night on one of the evening political chat shows there was a debate on Baerbock’s commitment of more funds to Ukraine without it first being debated in the Bundestag, as well as her statement that "Germans are prepared to suffer economically on this issue" to which well over half the country basically said, "oh are we? That's news to us". Anyway, there was a typical post-war generation center-right CDU talking head on and he was railing against this move repeatedly saying, “And why?! Why when we have our own pensioners worried about their current heating costs do we all of a sudden have hundreds of millions of extra euros to send to Ukraine...on top of the millions upon millons that we already send?! Why does this government view Ukraine as something that we must continuously support with German tax dollars without first consulting the Bundestag to see if the German people are ok with this?!” (It is worth noting that Germans absolutely do not tolerate frivolous government spending…there is a thing called “Die Schwarze Null”…”the black zero” which is a very tightly adhered-to balanced budget policy at the federal level that is essentially a German religious tenet of faith. A potential candidate for Federal Finance Minister simply will not get the spot if they say they will not follow “die Schwarze Null”). But what struck me about this exchange was not so much the words, but rather HOW it was stated…it is hard to describe in writing, but the way “Ukraine” was said was the way someone would refer to if asked to transfer money to another planet. It screamed the idea that this far away place - this potential belligerent that we are apparently staking our own economic future on to a large degree- has no more to do with us than a mountaintop village in Nepal has to do with Dalhart. And just to add to the context, this was on while I was at my in-laws for dinner and immediately after this question was asked on the TV, both of them - rational, reasonable, successful, centrist, typical post-war Germans - said, “stimmt, stimmt”…”exactly, exactly”.
 

I say all this to set up the point that in the above we are simply talking about random numbers on a federal govt ledger. Sure, they violate the red-hot, undying German passion for balanced federal budgets, but that is abstract. What will a reserved “stimmt, stimmt” become when the actual, tangible impact is felt at the individual level? I assure you something much, much more vulgar. It is clear that people would completely flip their shit if the power goes out, but what about less traumatic developments? We already pay extremely high fuel costs…what happens when that doubles because we have to buy US LNG? What happens when the increased costs are passed down to consumers in an economy where we tend to buy a ton of domestically produced goods? What happens when the impact to German Industry results in negative employment trends? Germany builds a metric fuck ton of its own shit and is one of the largest export economies in the world. What happens when major fuel increases reduce German competitiveness in the global market? No one in Germany is going to look at the global situation and say, “Well, my fuel cost has doubled and our goods are a lot more expensive, and our exports are getting butt fucked…but hey, at least Ukraine is still an independent, corrupt, failing state and not a Russian-controlled, corrupt, failing state." That simply is not going to fly. 
 

It is also worth pointing out that it was the German government who came to Putin with the idea for the OG Nord Stream, NOT the other way around. This was completely thought up and pursued by the Germans. And then it was the Germans who doubled down on it ten years later with the idea for NS2: Baltic Boogaloo. The Germans are sick and tired of Ukrainian clusterfuckery as a transit state, and they want reliable, cheap gas that isn’t dependent on Ukraine somehow finally getting its shit together when it comes to pipeline maintenance and their state-sponsored, systematic siphoning of gas bound for Germany. The Germans have literally paid hundreds of millions of euros to Ukraine which were specifically earmarked for pipeline modernization and fuck all has happened. The pipeline infrastructure remains decrepit. As tends to be the case with Ukraine, those government funds vanish like a fart in the wind into the pockets of corrupt officials. Which has been a grievance for going on 20 years on the German side. So the Germans finally just said, fuck it...these people are completely unreliable, so we will go direct. So, bottom line, this is a German project and it is seen by the German people as such.
 

The purchase of Russian gas is familiar, easy, and reliable for German Industry and consumers…and most importantly, it is CHEAP. So this isn’t the Germans being unable to get away from Russian gas…it is that they don’t WANT to get away from Russian gas. And as far as knock-on effects go, the Germans regularly laugh about the ivory tower condemnation coming from Poland and others about German dependency on cheap gas, when those countries are completely dependent on the profits derived in Germany as a direct result of that cheap fuel. If those largely German-funded structural funds stopped or decreased, or if the German Industry that provides supply chain jobs for a lot of the East tanked, you would hear the wailing and moaning from Warsaw all the way to Lisbon. So the pearl-clutching from the east is largely dismissed as shallow yapping. 

But back to the realpolitik, if you are Olaf Scholz, and you know that this German pipeline is doomed due to US sanctions, what do you do? Do you take one for the "transatlantic team" and kill it at the German level, saving the US the PR hit of blatant interference and shifting the entirety of the blame on the SPD, Greens and FDP, thus dooming left-wing politics for the next decade at least? Or do you give a one-finger salute to the US and force them to kill it themselves? Scholz may be weak, but his support in the form of SPD party chair Kevin Kühnert and the SPD base is extremely unlikely to allow that. They are “the next candidates” and they will not sacrifice their political careers solely so that the US can avoid the appearance of being heavy handed interventionists.
 

And to bring this local to Surl-inians...you all know who the poster boy for unilateral action by the US vis a vis NS2 in German is already, right? It’s Fat Wolverine. Cruz is probably the only US Senator besides Mitch McConnell that Germans know by name…and it is because of the coverage he gets here trying to block NS2. When Americans say, “Oh, Germans are just being lead astray by propaganda when they say the US actively seeks to kill NS2” it is like they simply can’t critically think about how US actions COULD REASONABLY be perceived by a foreign, German audience which is not wise in the minutia of American politics. In a German’s eyes, this blocking of this pipeline is apparently so important to the US that the US Senate refused to confirm ambassadors around the world for the first year of the Biden administration because of Biden’s removal of sanctions on the pipeline. And this block began at least six months before the Russian buildup in late 2021. In fact, the US ambassador to Germany back 2019 was literally sending letters to heads of German companies threatening them if they support NS2. Now we all know this is just American politics - and that it is somewhat to be expected under the prior administration - but Germans don't know that, so the US viewpoint simply can't be transposed onto Hans D. Kraut with the expectation that he acts similarly. Politics don't work like that here. And so this is not ancient history…this is recent, widely-reported activity that must be seen through German eyes. But back to Cancun Cruz, there literally were important global capitals that were essentially diplomatical black holes because those in the US Senate saw NS2 as so important, that their voice to foreign leaders was a secondary issue.

 

And this makes perfect sense to a German optically…Fat Wolverine reps Texas, Texas is the center of O&G in the US, US Senators are allowed to be literally bought-and-paid-for via a fucked up system of legalized bribery known as "campaign finance", so therefore in typical hyper-capitalist fashion they are playing the pure mercantile hand here. Germans get mercantilism…they live and die by it…so this is an easy sell to the population. 
 

Germans don’t see this as solely Cruz…they see this as the US Senate, which was confirmed by the fact that they BARELY passed measures overturning this madness last month. The US Senate’s recent grandstanding re sanctions has truly reinforced the Russian claim that while the US may not want this conflict to happen, they certainly aren’t completely opposed to a minimum level of conflict so that NS2 can be killed. And so Scholz's refusal to commit here re NS2 should be seen through that lens. He is simply not going to set himself up for the Americans, Poles and Baltics to start screaming "honor your cancellation promise" if Russia conducts limited attacks on Ukrainian positions around the Donbass. I honestly think he might kill it if it was a full scale invasion, as that really could be sold domestically as a Russian unilateral, aggressive, and disproportionate act, but I would be really surprised if he did it if attacks are seen as continuations of the long simmering Donbass conflict.

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

The whole Ukraine ordeal is a symptom of kicking the can policy.  It is just what we do.  That's why there is always some global conflict every 60-70 years or so.  It is human nature to want more.  Appeasement works if you are not able to bring anything to the table to negotiate.  When one country finally feels it is strong enough to be listened to they will make a move.  At some point that line in the sand will get challenged.

[Shady Ray 1633]

 

 

Jesus Christ, the UK is such a fucking disaster.

 

How can you send a Foreign Minister to meet with Sergei Lavrov who doesn't genuinely care enough about the issue to know that Rostov Oblast - the fucking massive oblast that borders the literal focal point of tensions in Southeast Ukraine - is part of Russia.

 

I mean seriously, Rostov-on-Don is the HQ of the Russian Southern Military District...it is literally in the name. It is in the first sentence of the Wikipedia entry for "Russian Southern Military District".

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

Just listened to the conversation between Lavrov and Truss.

Truss is brutal to listen to… between she and Johnson… not a good look UK. She should have some basic understanding of the situation and geopolitical landscape.

Narrator: She doesn’t. 

I own that my Russian is not as strong as it used to be, but I’m pretty sure Lavrov said having a conversation with her is like talking to a deaf/mute. My man’s shade game is pretty strong.

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

46 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

Just listened to the conversation between Lavrov and Truss.

Truss is brutal to listen to… between she and Johnson… not a good look UK. She should have some basic understanding of the situation and geopolitical landscape.

Narrator: She doesn’t. 

I own that my Russian is not as strong as it used to be, but I’m pretty sure Lavrov said having a conversation with her is like talking to a deaf/mute. My man’s shade game is pretty strong.

 

He did. I think he said, "Talking with her is like a deaf man trying to talk to a blind man." And then he walked off the stage leaving her alone on the podium. Lavrov has a particularly heightened level of disprespect for the UK. He has been firm but respectful to all other FMs, but got damn was he brutal today.

 

But Truss represents the peak "social media-ification" of what should be serious positions. Completely unserious climber who up until a few weeks ago actually was being tossed around as a possibe replacement of Boris, although I think that will go to Rishi Sunak.

 

What kind of adult - much less an actual, high-level cabinet member of the United Kingdom - runs around obviously attempting to re-create photo moments of Margaret Thatcher. Today's clear attempt to invoke Thatcher infront of the Kremlin was peak cringe. It was apparently 40 degrees in Moscow today and there she was decked out like she was in the Siberian winter just so she could act like Maggie.

 

 

She is a completely vapid idiot.

 

Also, Lavrov having to tell her to settle down and let the translators finish translating was even worse.

 

 

 

 

 

[Brisketexan 105095]

1 -- pretty sure I drank some cheap Rostov Oblast at the beach back in high school.  I was puking up air before the day was out.

2 -- Jesus, the crisis of competence in the West is near-total.  Maybe the approach of "let's put populists in power who pander to the lowest common denominator" and "for sure, let's purge all the technocrats who actually know things" wasn't the best path for us.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

1 -- pretty sure I drank some cheap Rostov Oblast at the beach back in high school.  I was puking up air before the day was out.

2 -- Jesus, the crisis of competence in the West is near-total.  Maybe the approach of "let's put populists in power who pander to the lowest common denominator" and "for sure, let's purge all the technocrats who actually know things" wasn't the best path for us.

But you should actually appreciate this...it makes your girl up in Berlin look absolutely Thatcheresque by comparison.

[Brisketexan 105095]

Just now, Shady Ray said:

But you should actually appreciate this...it makes your girl up in Berlin look absolutely Thatcheresque by comparison.

I mean...maybe.  If the slogan is "Left-wing populists....at least we're attractive and slightly less clueless," that one may require a bit more workshopping before it's global-domination ready.

[Shady Ray 1633]

And of course, fucking TASS is all over it pumping out propaganda for all the dim bulbs, claiming that the UK is now refusing to recognize Rostov and Voronezh. The Guardian is saying that she continued to insist on "never" recognizing the oblasts multiple times until the UK Ambassador to Russia finally stepped in and corrected her. Jeeeeeeesus. 

 

Top British diplomat refused to recognize Voronezh and Rostov as part of Russia — source

After Truss’ statements urging Moscow to move its forces, located on Russia’s soil, away from the border with Ukraine, Sergey Lavrov asked his British counterpart if she recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions.

MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss refused to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions at talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday, a source close to the negotiations told TASS.

After Truss’ statements urging Moscow to move its forces, located on Russia’s soil, away from the border with Ukraine, Lavrov asked his British counterpart if she recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions.

According to the source, Truss insisted that the UK would never recognize Russia’s sovereignty over these regions.

Concerns over Moscow’s alleged preparations for an ‘invasion of Ukraine’ have been increasingly echoed throughout the West and in Kiev recently. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov castigated these statements as an ‘empty and groundless’ escalation of tension, emphasizing that Russia posed no threat to anyone. At the same time, the Kremlin press secretary did not exclude some possible provocations to justify such claims and warned that any attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict by force would carry extremely serious consequences.

https://tass.com/world/1401173

 

Can the Brits just sit this one out? Maybe have a few drinks at No. 10? Or maybe go to Beijing to open the pork markets?

 

 

[gernblansten 3196]

If she was going to double down, she should've gone with:

"You're suspect! Yeah, you! I don't know what your reputation is in this town, but after the shit you tried to pull today you can bet I'll be looking into you. Now the business we have, heretofore, you can speak with my aforementioned attorney. Good day, gentlemen; and until that day comes, keep your ear to the grindstone."

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

11 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

If she was going to double down, she should've gone with:

"You're suspect! Yeah, you! I don't know what your reputation is in this town, but after the shit you tried to pull today you can bet I'll be looking into you. Now the business we have, heretofore, you can speak with my aforementioned attorney. Good day, gentlemen; and until that day comes, keep your ear to the grindstone."

Well done sir. Well done

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

37 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Also, Lavrov having to tell her to settle down and let the translators finish translating was even worse.

Yeah when he said that I was like daaaaayyyyuuuuuum. 
The delivery was like very Pretty Tony-esque. Fo sho told her to STFU, grown ass folk is talking. Go sit at the kiddie table and we will tell you when you’re tapioca pudding is ready. 

 

[Parliament 14255]

Days like this make me glad America is separated from this shitshow by two giant oceans and Canada.

[Hefeweizen 5311]

5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Days like this make me glad America is separated from this shitshow by two giant oceans and Canada.

That’s our hat!  And no doubt, fucking dysfunctional shitshow over there.  The UK should just bail right now and pretend their phone lines aren’t working.

[InkaUtexas 25907]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

And of course, fucking TASS is all over it pumping out propaganda for all the dim bulbs, claiming that the UK is now refusing to recognize Rostov and Voronezh. The Guardian is saying that she continued to insist on "never" recognizing the oblasts multiple times until the UK Ambassador to Russia finally stepped in and corrected her. Jeeeeeeesus. 

 

Top British diplomat refused to recognize Voronezh and Rostov as part of Russia — source

After Truss’ statements urging Moscow to move its forces, located on Russia’s soil, away from the border with Ukraine, Sergey Lavrov asked his British counterpart if she recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions.

MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss refused to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions at talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday, a source close to the negotiations told TASS.

After Truss’ statements urging Moscow to move its forces, located on Russia’s soil, away from the border with Ukraine, Lavrov asked his British counterpart if she recognized Russia’s sovereignty over the Voronezh and Rostov Regions.

According to the source, Truss insisted that the UK would never recognize Russia’s sovereignty over these regions.

Concerns over Moscow’s alleged preparations for an ‘invasion of Ukraine’ have been increasingly echoed throughout the West and in Kiev recently. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov castigated these statements as an ‘empty and groundless’ escalation of tension, emphasizing that Russia posed no threat to anyone. At the same time, the Kremlin press secretary did not exclude some possible provocations to justify such claims and warned that any attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict by force would carry extremely serious consequences.

https://tass.com/world/1401173

 

Can the Brits just sit this one out? Maybe have a few drinks at No. 10? Or maybe go to Beijing to open the pork markets?

 

 

They could start some shit over the Malvinas. 

[nineliveslost 2753]

10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

They could start some shit over the Malvinas. 

*Falkland Islands

[bolverk 29660]

13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

They could start some shit over the Malvinas. 

 

2 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

*Falkland Islands

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

This is some funny detail behind the Putin/Macron meeting. What kind of spy craft are they worried about regarding Macron’s DNA?

 

[Brisketexan 105095]

23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

They could start some shit over the Malvinas. 

CSB:

When my parents lived in Buenos Aires, their apartment overlooked the Plaza San Martin park, which contained the Malvinas memorial.  Very solemn and dignified.

But the important part was that on any remotely sunny day, the lawn of the plaza was covered in sunbathing argentines.  As a courtesy to guests, my dad kept a couple of extra pairs of binoculars in the wet bar next to the balcony.

[phdhorn 6224]

1 minute ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

This is some funny detail behind the Putin/Macron meeting. What kind of spy craft are they worried about regarding Macron’s DNA?

 

Makes perfect sense. Russia is about to invade Ukraine, and Putin didn't want to catch Macron's "French surrender at all costs" germ.

[Enchubben 5510]

31 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Makes perfect sense. Russia is about to invade Ukraine, and Putin didn't want to catch Macron's "French surrender at all costs" germ.

i think you missed a great opportunity there to be subtle.  I would have gone with - I'm surprised that cheese eating Macron didn't surrender over the test results. 

[Gatorubet 30210]

They could start some shit over the Malvinas. 

They could threaten Putin to import British cuisine to Russia.

It would scare the shit out of me….

[Nice Guy Eddie 13510]

The UK negotiator might be dumb but lame attempt for the Russian to name some obscure areas of Russia. I doubt many Russians could name all of their oblasts and regions.  And the main reason no one out side of Russia isaware of them, is because no one cares.

[dcbc 14471]

4 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

This is some funny detail behind the Putin/Macron meeting. What kind of spy craft are they worried about regarding Macron’s DNA?

 

It's not like they have a history of poisoning people they don't like.  I think I'm in the camp of "I'm a world leader.  Putin isn't ordering anyting stuck up my nose."

[Chet Steadman 940]

I feel like George W. in the SNL skit when @Shady Ray and @956 Worldwide are discussing German-Russian-Ukrainian relations in this thread.

https://youtu.be/zDgRRVpemLo?t=302

[Chet Steadman 940]

dp

Edited February 11, 2022 by Chet Steadman

[atomheartbevo 89648]

Putin's $100 million yacht left Hamburg

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-yacht-graceful-left-germany-amid-sanction-threats-report-2022-2

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Oh this is Lavrov at peak Lavrov. You have to know what you’re walking into with him. Or any Russian, diplomacy is a contact sport.  And for our British friends, a good reminder that the Russians compete with us— they LOATHE the British from even the Great Game era and before.  They really love to humiliate them.

This is a good example of what it’s like to sit down with Russians, which is why almost everyone tries to avoid it unless completely necessary.  They consider taking a high level meeting with the sole purpose of humiliating their interlocutor to be a diplomatic win.  They also are never sitting down to find a win win, it’s always “if we win you lose.”  The vast majority of normal countries don’t try to bait ministerial level interlocutors into gotcha moments no matter how bad shit has gotten. 

And Truss was just overmatched. Remember that Lavrov has been foreign minister of Russia for sixteen damn years.  As in many Western countries, Truss is not a foreign policy expert. Lavrov knows infinitely more on whatever he is taking about. He’s done this more than her. He’s on his turf. If he decides he wants to maul you, he does. They knew very well that Truss’ trip was to show alliance solidarity and secondarily to show strength at home.  He decided to it would be fun to throw a wrench in that. 
 

And you’re walking into the Bear’s den.  Nerve-wracking enough alone, but the Russians amp it up. Every step along the way is designed to intimidate and throw you off and I wouldn’t be surprised a bit if this involved things like crazy last minute schedule shifts and delays, to even interpretation format shifts. This happens at the working level, too. You’ll go in with something to talk about, after four hours you will walk out exhausted after being brow beaten for a misstep you made on something that wasn’t even on the agenda. 

All stuff that a seasoned Russia hand will expect and take in stride (mostly) but overwhelming to the amateur.  No one in the world wants to walk into Moscow and deliver a “fuck you” to that man, it’s a pants-shitting experience. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The UK negotiator might be dumb but lame attempt for the Russian to name some obscure areas of Russia. I doubt many Russians could name all of their oblasts and regions.  And the main reason no one out side of Russia isaware of them, is because no one cares.

I don't think this was some type of "gotcha" game though. Per Kommersant and the Financial Times, Truss repeatedly told Lavrov that Russia needed to "withdraw its forces from the Ukrainian border" and Lavrov essentially asked the question, "Why? This is our territory...do you not recognize our sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh?" To which Truss responded, "No, Great Britain will never recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions"

 

Here is a screen grab from the Kommersant article...

 

 

 

I mean, it a reasonable expectation that if you, as the Foreign Secretary of a NATO power, nuclear-armed member of the UN Security Council, in the midst of the closest thing we have had to major war in Europe in decades, sit down across from the Foreign Minister of Russia and make the position that the RF should withdraw its troops, you should at least know what fucking geographic region contain the troops you are referring to. It's not like Lavrov threw out some random oblast in the east and said, "Tell me about Magadan Oblast."

 

Due to deference to US leadership in global affairs over the past 60 years, much of the rest of the West has allowed its chief diplomatic posts to become filled by completely incompetent morons who only care about their next political gig. So when they run up against hardened, top-tier diplomats like Sergei Lavrov or Wang Yi, there is always the chance that they are going to have their pants pulled down and spanked like the naive foreign policy neophytes that they are.

 

Bottom line is that there are at least a half dozen people on this thread of degenerates alone who could off the top of their heads identify that Rostov was a Russian Oblast on the Ukrainian border where one of the five administrative divisions of the Russian Military is headquartered (which also happens to be the literal focal point of the Russian buildup), who would then go over and click "Hook 'Em" on a set of perky tits on the Sugar Daddy thread or comment on one the fine cuisines prepared by one of Vic Mackey's lovely ladies. So, it is reasonable to expect Truss to be able to read a fucking brief on the flight while heading over for her photo op, or, at least ask for clarification instead of just running head-long into "Never. We'll never recognize it."

 

And while we can all dismiss this as just a stupid foreign policy kerfuffle, which it certainly is, there are people across Europe who look at this type of juvenile behavior coming from the UK (and lets not even get started on Boris Johnson) and it just serves as one more notch in favor of sitting this one out if this is the leadership we should expect from a NATO power and UN Security Council member.  And hell, the complete disaster of her visit isn't just Russian spin ...her twitter feed re this from Brits is absolutely brutal (albeit hilarious) in a way that only the jaded, cynical Brits can do. 

[TexasEd 8066]

Yes, she got caught giving the answer to the question about the Donbas when he said Rostov. Rookie mistake.  Kids at the Model UN would have done better.

[Shady Ray 1633]

And this was a complete own-goal. Does anyone think that Truss set out to accomplish anything beyond elevating her own image with an eye on replacing Boris with this trip? Was her input truly needed in this tense situation? No. It wasn't. No one in Foggy Bottom or in Quai d'Orsay is saying, 'let's see what that whip-smart gal Liz Truss can get done one-on-one in Moscow with Sergey Fucking Lavrov."

 

The Brits are a complete non-entity in this conflict, and increasingly so in international relations as a whole. The US matters. The Europeans matter. The Russians matter. The Ukrainians matter. But who in a position of influence in this conflict gives a single fuck what the UK says or does independently? Sure, they can and should signal unity with the allies. But they can do that from abroad like the rest of those not directly involved in negotiations. But is a high profile time-suck from a two-bit player. The US is involved because, well, its the US and the most powerful country in the world and the guarantor of security on the European continent. The Germans and French are involved due to their role as guarantors of the Minsk Agreement, and informally due to their status within the EU. The Ukrainian involvement is obvious.

 

But outside of some unilateral arms shipments and some token troop movements, the Brits have absolutely zero influence here. In fact, the higher profile their involvement, the higher the obstacle to unity becomes. And as @956 Worldwide said, the Brits know good and well that Russia reserves a particularly heightened level of disdain for them and is always gunning to humliate them. Plus, there are huge, huge swathes of French and Germans who will quite literally recoil from anything that the Brits are involved with, particularly after the completely embarrassing shit show they wallered around in throughout Brexit. And the relationship between the French and the Brits - even by those historically sorry standards - is at a particularly terrible point at the moment. 

 

Moscow knows that they are just going to do what the US says. Brussels knows this. DC knows this. Berlin knows this. Paris knows this. Mons knows this. Hell, the entire world knows this. So only within the self-inflated ego of a long-dead empire with a recent pattern of self-inflicted gunshot wounds to its own global influence would one think that a high-profile visit from a vapid idiot like Truss would be a good idea.

 

But there is some good news in that the she may not be stuck on foreign policy matters much longer. The bad news is that the odds makers in the UK have her in the top two potential PM replacements for Boris.
 

 

 

 

I would say that there is no way the UK would be so dumb as to elevate her into No. 10, but they do seem hell-bent on reaching peak dysfunctional irrelevancy, so let's not count her out just yet.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34705]

I would quibble somewhat with @Shady Ray calling the UK a two bit player, as NATOs second most capable military, perhaps most capable intelligence operator, a bigger economy that Russia, and with the real teeth to sanctions that effect the ability do do business in the City of London— the UK can bring a lot to bear.  Bottom line is that you can’t ignore a UNSC permanent member that is nuclear armed, in the G7, and that has force projection similar to your own if they are interested— even if you think they don’t have a right to be. 
 

But that’s only if you have a real chance of opening daylight with Washington and that isn’t happening.  It’s hard for me to overstate how angry they are over Skripal and Brexit vote meddling.  In some ways, they even outrun the United States.

This episode does show (in a bad way) where Russia is on resolving this diplomatically. Ordinarily a good faith partner doesn’t release embarrassing missteps, “gotcha” or not, if there is interest in productive conversations now or ever in the future.  It serves no real purpose aside from humiliating your interlocutor.
 

The cameras in the room for the “translator” mishap are….interesting. These things are seriously stage managed. The usual format is photo at the top, wave to press, enter room and maybe a photo at the beginning, close doors before a word is said.  I’d be interested to know if the Brits agreed to video during talks or if that was sprung on them.  Either way— any discussion carried out on camera is not one where you want to have a real talk. Getting shit like that on camera and out is just designed to belittle and piss off your counterpart, and the fact is that it happens all the time. Some very good diplomats are in fact notorious for over talking their interpreter and it’s never more than an inside eye roll or joke. 
 

Bottom line, this was a belligerent performance in every sense of the word and that’s not good news for Europe. 
 

Related— Russian SVR announced that nearly all “combat capable” Ukrainian units are near the Line of Contact in Donbas and hinted that THEY might be preparing an offensive. It’s all over the Slavic language press.  And I know @immamac thinks it’s far fetched but this is exactly the type of groundwork you lay if you want to invent a justification for your own intervention. 

 

Edited February 11, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Shady Ray 1633]

As far as influence is derived from the ability to set one's own agenda and autonomously influence certain goings on, they have very little remaining. They will do what they are told by Washington, perhaps running ahead so long as Washington allows them such room. But their front running is done at the permission of Washington and if it ever became problematic to DC, it would stop and they would do as they are told. So IMO they have no true independent agency in this matter. Their military might is completely and entirely at the discretion of the US approval. There is no possiblity that they would ever use that threat without Washington's approval and coordinaton, so in that sense, they are simply an extended US military operation based in the North Sea. They have dutifully lapdogged every stupid policy detour we have been involved with and they have never so much as once exercised any form of independent autonomy with respect tothe US. So it is in that sense that they are an afterthought. They have no power within the EU whatsoever and they cannot influence the situation economically. So in that sense, they are even less significant than an Italy or a Poland, as at least those two can influence within the EU.

 

And while I agree with you that in theory they could make meaningful steps with sanctions, the Tories are completely exposed if anything beyond nominal hand-slaps are doled out as sanctions. Londongrad is absolutely swimming in Russian illicit cash and the existing Tory Govt is too implicated, too weak, and too gutless to do anything significant there. The powers that be in the City of London have no interest in opening up this up.

 

Mrs. Shady is an attorney who worked in the City of London for a few years in the mid Twenty-Teens and she swears it was the most blatant organized money laundering environment she had ever seen. It was absolutely everywhere in certain quarters and it was completely open and obvious. Oh, they'll make a show about slapping an oligarch or ten in Belgravia or Chelsea, but there are way too many British political careers at stake with anything meaningful and the UK economic outlook is certainly not conducive to gutting a major part of their financial service industry, which is essentially all they have left.

 

And while I totally agree that it was a dirty move, at some point Truss needs to know how to handle herself in what is clearly going to be hostile territory. 

 

I mean hell, she took an absolute dressing down not even a week ago by the Russian Foreign Ministry for not knowing the difference between the Baltic and Black Seas. 

 

Quote

"The episode follows a previous taunt by Russia last week when the foreign secretary was taken to task over her comment that “we are supplying and offering extra support to our Baltic allies across the Black Sea”. The Baltic Sea and the Black Sea – where Ukraine sits on the coast – are on opposite sides of Europe. The remark led Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, to observe: “Ms Truss, your knowledge of history is nothing compared to your knowledge of geography. If anyone needs saving from anything, it’s the world, from the stupidity and ignorance of British politicians.” The Foreign Office said that Truss’s remarks had been misinterpreted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/10/russia-must-respect-ukraine-sovereignty-liz-truss-talks-open

 

This was more than enough notice that her ass was in the crosshairs. And this is pure Idiocracy type shit in a Foreign Secretary. She should show at least a modicum of a clue on the subject matter, or she should stay home leaving it to those who do. 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

I have mentioned this on another thread, but Tagesschau is THE nightly news program in Germany. It comes on the main German state broadcaster, ARD, at 8:00 PM and approximately 20 million of the 80 million Germans tune in for it nightly. The opening "gong" rings, and everyone sits down and watches this show.

 

Last night they started off with this as the top story. Full article is quoted, but the highlight:

 

In the Labour Party, the government's unwillingness to take action against money launderers is seen as a problem of the Conservative Party. The Tories are said to have received around six million euros from supporters from Russia over the past ten years. Foreign Minister Truss wants to act quickly. She announced new sanction rules and promised in the House of Commons that those with ties to the Kremlin will have no place to hide - which caused laughter among MPs, because the martial announcement contradicts reality.

Many company shares disguised 

Merely finding out who owns what is quite difficult in the UK. Company shares or real estate are registered to companies overseas. It is almost impossible to trace them. In addition, although the commercial register is transparent for everyone to see, "the authority that keeps the commercial register has no way of checking all the information. In some cases, there's transparent garbage being put together," Keatinge says. "That means there are companies registered in the name of Mickey Mouse, or in the name of a two-year-old girl. Experts are calling for an authority that can track entries in the commercial register, a registry for overseas companies and a strengthening of the National Crime Agency, the investigative body. The proposals have long been on the table, says Keatinge. They just need to finally be introduced in Parliament. Liz Truss has promised that this should happen by the end of 2022. This is probably too late for sanctions to be enforced more effectively.

 

The video is in German, but they post it online with a written accompaniment:
 

Quote

"Londongrad" as a loophole?
02/10/2022 03:32 am

In Great Britain, many Russians launder their money. Effective sanctions against Russia are therefore hardly possible, according to the USA. But the Conservative Party apparently has little interest in taking action against corruption.
By Christoph Prössl, ARD Studio London

The British government likes to be relentless when it comes to Russia and preventing an invasion of Ukraine. When Foreign Minister Liz Truss visited the British force in Estonia at the end of last year, she had herself photographed in a moving tank, just as the then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, called the Iron Lady, years before her.

 

Despite the deployment of troops to strengthen NATO's eastern flank and despite the supply of weapons to Ukraine: Great Britain is also under criticism. It's about black money, money laundering and Russian oligarchs in London. From Washington, there were warnings towards Downing Street 10: Ukraine sanctions would remain ineffective because Putin's money had long since arrived in the best districts of London.

 

Serious accusations from the Labour Party

 

London is the destination of choice for all kleptocrats, says Labour foreign policy spokesman David Lammy. Here there are companies that help corrupt elites hide their unlawfully acquired assets.

 

Labour calls for stricter laws, transparency rules to strengthen investigative authorities. The demand is not new. As early as 2018, a final report by a parliamentary committee of inquiry said: The government must end the inflow of dirty money into the United Kingdom.So far, hardly any efforts by the governmentBut nothing happened: "Due to Brexit and a lack of interest in the government, there was no energy to tackle the issue," says Tom Keatinge, director at the Center for Economic Crime at the Royal United Services Institute. In his opinion, there is a large majority of members of all political groups who support corresponding laws.

 

In the Labour Party, the government's unwillingness to take action against money launderers is seen as a problem of the Conservative Party. The Tories are said to have received around six million euros from supporters from Russia over the past ten years. Foreign Minister Truss wants to act quickly. She announced new sanction rules and promised in the House of Commons that those with ties to the Kremlin will have no place to hide - which caused laughter among MPs, because the martial announcement contradicts reality.

 

Many company shares disguised

 

Merely finding out who owns what is quite difficult in the UK. Company shares or real estate are registered to companies overseas. It is almost impossible to trace them. In addition, although the commercial register is transparent for everyone to see, "the authority that keeps the commercial register has no way of checking all the information. In some cases, there's transparent garbage being put together," Keatinge says. "That means there are companies registered in the name of Mickey Mouse, or in the name of a two-year-old girl. Experts are calling for an authority that can track entries in the commercial register, a registry for overseas companies and a strengthening of the National Crime Agency, the investigative body. The proposals have long been on the table, says Keatinge. They just need to finally be introduced in Parliament. Liz Truss has promised that this should happen by the end of 2022. This is probably too late for sanctions to be enforced more effectively.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/grossbritannien-russland-sanktionen-101.html

 

 

 

 

 

This goes hand-in-hand with the sudden stories about US hypocrisy re Russian oil imports. Point being, regardless of whether they are analogous to NS2, Germany is prepping the ground for a situation where if Berlin has to take a hit, London will as well. And if London isn't ready to make that commitment, Berlin isn't going to either.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Captainant 27653]

I don't have much to contribute to the tea leaf reading and foreign policy insight, but one of the blogs I still follow does OSINT analysis of the naval forces buildup. They're up to three cruiser battlegroups in the Mediterranean and black sea, and at least two KILO class subs - and everything can chuck cruise missiles and SAMs.

Seems like things are just a twitchy finger away from going hot, just from the sheer number of missile tubes they've got in the vicinity

Edited February 11, 2022 by Captainant

[Shady Ray 1633]

47 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I don't have much to contribute to the tea leaf reading and foreign policy insight, but one of the blogs I still follow does OSINT analysis of the naval forces buildup. They're up to three cruiser battlegroups in the Mediterranean and black sea, and at least two KILO class subs - and everything can chuck cruise missiles and SAMs.

Seems like things are just a twitchy finger away from going hot, just from the sheer number of missile tubes they've got in the vicinity

Yep. It is getting closer. Lots of activity going on pointing in that direction today.

[TXSG8R 3362]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I don't have much to contribute to the tea leaf reading and foreign policy insight, but one of the blogs I still follow does OSINT analysis of the naval forces buildup. They're up to three cruiser battlegroups in the Mediterranean and black sea, and at least two KILO class subs - and everything can chuck cruise missiles and SAMs.

Seems like things are just a twitchy finger away from going hot, just from the sheer number of missile tubes they've got in the vicinity

They aren’t remotely hiding this stuff

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44226/russia-looks-like-it-wants-to-all-but-wall-off-ukraines-coastlines-next-week

The NOTAMs run right up to the end of the Olympics. Makes sense that Putin won’t step on Xi’s toes, and everything will be in place to pop off right after. 

[Hefeweizen 5311]

So the 20th is the big day now?

 

I like the fact that the Germans are prepping everyone to have to suffer with them.  In a perverse way it means they are preparing for pain.  
 

I have a cousin who is at NATO from the Bundeswehr as an intelligence analyst but I am not about to ask him his opinion in an email.  I can tell you they are about as pro American a group as you’ll find.
 

I would love to pick his brain on this one though.

[956 Worldwide 34705]

There’s almost no reason for optimism. Every signal is that Russia wants a fight. Normandy talks yesterday ended with a stalemate as the Kremlin announced it was all Ukraine’s fault and they couldn’t agree on an implementation interpretation.  Thr SVR has started cranking out warnings that Ukraine is about to be the aggressor itself. Putin can’t leave these units there forever.  POTUS does not tell people to “leave now” on national TV as part of an info operation.