Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Have a military acquaintance I'm supposed to be going on vacation with next month. They told me more than likely they won't be able to make it.....

[FartingMonk 3604]

31 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Have a military acquaintance I'm supposed to be going on vacation with next month. They told me more than likely they won't be able to make it.....

Being from the submarine community my boomer friends are more or less still running whatever schedule.  The fast attack guys especially the pierwolf guys all of a sudden can't be reached.  My brother who works for an alphabet agency cannot be reached 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, FartingMonk said:

Being from the submarine community my boomer friends are more or less still running whatever schedule.  The fast attack guys especially the pierwolf guys all of a sudden can't be reached.  My brother who works for an alphabet agency cannot be reached 

iiiinterdasting...........

[FartingMonk 3604]

I don't know any of the OMFG guys anymore but I would bet they are poking holes in that area.  Last time one of those guys fired a shot in anger was when they unloaded 105 tomahawks into Libya and that was just the Florida

[Hefeweizen 5210]

So let’s wargame this a little bit.  Full scale invasion is going to overwhelm Ukrainian forces but due to the size of the country and population it’s going to take a solid month.  What does US/NATO do in that month?  Sanctions are a given but expected and won’t bite right away anyway.  
 

After a month a new government isn’t going to be stable so is there a protectorate with Russian forces stationed at Poland’s border?  I don’t see that as a stable situation…

 

And if this happens, does China say fuck it, we’re going in to Taiwan given the lack of fucks given?

 

I am not sure either China or Russia think the “Allies” have the stomach for conflict right now.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

So let’s wargame this a little bit.  Full scale invasion is going to overwhelm Ukrainian forces but due to the size of the country and population it’s going to take a solid month.  What does US/NATO do in that month?  Sanctions are a given but expected and won’t bite right away anyway.  
 

After a month a new government isn’t going to be stable so is there a protectorate with Russian forces stationed at Poland’s border?  I don’t see that as a stable situation…

 

And if this happens, does China say fuck it, we’re going in to Taiwan given the lack of fucks given?

 

I am not sure either China or Russia think the “Allies” have the stomach for conflict right now.

Is Taiwan the same as the Ukraine situation ?  Seems like we value them a shit load more than Ukraine.

[FartingMonk 3604]

3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

So let’s wargame this a little bit.  Full scale invasion is going to overwhelm Ukrainian forces but due to the size of the country and population it’s going to take a solid month.  What does US/NATO do in that month?  Sanctions are a given but expected and won’t bite right away anyway.  
 

After a month a new government isn’t going to be stable so is there a protectorate with Russian forces stationed at Poland’s border?  I don’t see that as a stable situation…

 

And if this happens, does China say fuck it, we’re going in to Taiwan given the lack of fucks given?

 

I am not sure either China or Russia think the “Allies” have the stomach for conflict right now.

Yeah.  I think that will be worst case if China decides to make a move.  If that happens then we have Asia in conflict.  Then what's stopping the Iranians from rolling through the middle east.  NATO probably just gives up Ukraine and we pretend nothing happened.

[Parliament 13984]

Why are we so sure the Ukranians will get rolled over?  They're gonna try to turn it into a guerrilla slog, and they're gonna try real hard.  Does the Russian miltary have the resources to fight a long conflict of that type?

[FartingMonk 3604]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Is Taiwan the same as the Ukraine situation ?  Seems like we value them a shit load more than Ukraine.

I'm much more versed on Taiwan than Ukraine.  Taiwan manufactures something like 60 percent of the chips that are so critical right now.  They would draw in a lot of other countries.  But I think policy makers are outright against attacking the Chinese mainland.  Hainan island is super interesting place.  It's going to be to wipe out Chinese naval assets in the first week otherwise Taiwan goes down.  The South Koreans may not be able to play a role.  The Norks will probably be able to sabotage a lot of their infrastructure.  They have a lot of sleepers there.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

8 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm much more versed on Taiwan than Ukraine.  Taiwan manufactures something like 60 percent of the chips that are so critical right now.  They would draw in a lot of other countries.  But I think policy makers are outright against attacking the Chinese mainland.  Hainan island is super interesting place.  It's going to be to wipe out Chinese naval assets in the first week otherwise Taiwan goes down.  The South Koreans may not be able to play a role.  The Norks will probably be able to sabotage a lot of their infrastructure.  They have a lot of sleepers there.

WWIII.....

[SimonBolivar 10648]

49 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why are we so sure the Ukranians will get rolled over?  They're gonna try to turn it into a guerrilla slog, and they're gonna try real hard.  Does the Russian miltary have the resources to fight a long conflict of that type?

I'm not sure either way. I can see some Ukrainians going guerrilla and I can see a lot saying "meh, our government was corrupt anyway" and moving on with their lives. They know change well.

[phdhorn 6224]

50 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah.  I think that will be worst case if China decides to make a move.  If that happens then we have Asia in conflict.  Then what's stopping the Iranians from rolling through the middle east.  NATO probably just gives up Ukraine and we pretend nothing happened.

This here is what I've been paying attention to, and reading about, this week never mind the Ukranian stuff.

From what I can gather, Beijing still wants to pursue the "frog in a pot" strategy - that is through a series of economic and non-combative military pressures, they'd prefer to piece by piece squeeze Taiwan until they simply acquiesce quietly.  However, not sure that strategy is as front-burner with the troubles in Hong Kong illustrating that strategy's problem.  Most of the intelligence indicators appear to say that despite this "golden opportunity" for Xi with the "distraction" of Russia for the West, various factors don't make this a good bet and that Beijing is in no hurry to prosecute a war.  Plus Taiwan has a much more formidable and technically-savvy military, especially a highly-trained and crack Air Force, so it would be a lot more difficult to achieve some sort of clear victory.

I have reasonable faith that it's just not a good idea and Xi/company know it.

Still, with the recent alliances between China and Russia, especially the 30-year gas deal and new Russo-Chinese pipeline, clearly bolster the ties between the two, and as long as their mutual interests don't conflict (and right now they don't), it's a worrisome alliance.

[XYZ 2154]

Why does Putin want to invade Ukraine?

[elfenix 34001]

Also seeing the Russians are doing the same with their facilities in the Ukraine. 

that seems bad

[FartingMonk 3604]

8 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

This here is what I've been paying attention to, and reading about, this week never mind the Ukranian stuff.

From what I can gather, Beijing still wants to pursue the "frog in a pot" strategy - that is through a series of economic and non-combative military pressures, they'd prefer to piece by piece squeeze Taiwan until they simply acquiesce quietly.  However, not sure that strategy is as front-burner with the troubles in Hong Kong illustrating that strategy's problem.  Most of the intelligence indicators appear to say that despite this "golden opportunity" for Xi with the "distraction" of Russia for the West, various factors don't make this a good bet and that Beijing is in no hurry to prosecute a war.  Plus Taiwan has a much more formidable and technically-savvy military, especially a highly-trained and crack Air Force, so it would be a lot more difficult to achieve some sort of clear victory.

I have reasonable faith that it's just not a good idea and Xi/company know it.

Still, with the recent alliances between China and Russia, especially the 30-year gas deal and new Russo-Chinese pipeline, clearly bolster the ties between the two, and as long as their mutual interests don't conflict (and right now they don't), it's a worrisome alliance.

I think the thing with China right now.  It's a if not now when.  We clearly don't have the stomach to do it.  Do we wait for a hawkish president again?  That's my biggest concern

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Why does Putin want to invade Ukraine?

Ukraine is a pathway to Russia for invasion, it gives him a buffer, and Ukraine has always been a target of Russian imperialism because of its agriculture. It's been considered the bread basket of the Russian empire throughout its history.

[SimonBolivar 10648]

9 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Why does Putin want to invade Ukraine?

[XYZ 2154]

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Ukraine is a pathway to Russia for invasion, it gives him a buffer, and Ukraine has always been a target of Russian imperialism because of its agriculture. It's been considered the bread basket of the Russian empire throughout its history.

Thanks. With the amount of territory that Russia has, I didn’t think they would need more for agricultural purposes. Maybe a lot of Russian land is barren and useless.

[Bigbend1812 12864]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

Being from the submarine community my boomer friends are more or less still running whatever schedule.  The fast attack guys especially the pierwolf guys all of a sudden can't be reached.  My brother who works for an alphabet agency cannot be reached 

[FartingMonk 3604]

Just now, XYZ said:

Thanks. With the amount of territory that Russia has, I didn’t think they would need more for agricultural purposes. Maybe a lot of Russian land is barren and useless.

That.  Warm water ports and NATO.  If Ukraine joins NATO and says hey we want the Crimea back.  It puts everyone in a very awkward position

[utee94 15673]

Real question because I don't know and haven't ever followed it closely-- how likely is it that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO?

[Captainant 26869]

DailyMail: Putin 'has decided to invade Ukraine on WEDNESDAY'

According to German newspaper Der Spiegel, the US Secret Service, CIA and the Pentagon are said to have received intel of an 'exceptionally detailed' invasion plan, scheduled for February 16. 

...

They are said to contain specific routes that might be taken by individual Russian units and detail what roles they might play in the conflict. Der Speigel suggests the US is mulling whether to make the plans public in a bid to undermine them. 

[nineliveslost 2677]

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Real question because I don't know and haven't ever followed it closely-- how likely is it that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO?

in my opinion

0%

[Hefeweizen 5210]

Just now, nineliveslost said:

in my opinion

0%

Agree.  No upside for NATO at all.  And Ukraine is way too corrupt still.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Real question because I don't know and haven't ever followed it closely-- how likely is it that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO?

The NATO charter states potential members can't be added if there is an ongoing conflict within its borders. Russia can keep tensions running high with all kinds off little border incursions to keep that from happening.

I'd imagine a lot of Euros don't want Ukraine as much as the US would like it probably.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

This all seems to be playing out like a Tom Clancy novel.

[nineliveslost 2677]

It sure seems history is repeating itself. Expansion in Europe with Asia conflict simmering. 1939 all over again

 

[WhatTheBuck 28574]

18 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Real question because I don't know and haven't ever followed it closely-- how likely is it that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO?

Not anytime soon. But I’ve heard speculation that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might convince Sweden and Finland to join. I’m not qualified to judge how reliable that speculation is. And at best it’s just speculation. But it seems like that would be counter to Putin’s aims, expansion of NATO being something he’s been outspoken against. I’m not sure if Russian belligerence is the smartest tack since that’s the whole raison d'être for NATO in the first place. But he’s been emboldened in recent years. 

[UTGrad98 2186]

Other intel coming through as well.

 

[Bevo 13419]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Meanwhile, an entire side of the political aisle in this country SUPPORTS this sort of shit and gleefully broadcasts pro-Putin/Russia propaganda.

Your political bait should have been posted in the cloak room rather than here:

 

 

Madeleine Albright, who served as President Bill Clinton's secretary of state and supported President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, apologized to Romney, then Obama's Republican opponent and now Utah's junior senator, for her repeated criticism of his claim that Russia was the country's "number one geopolitical foe," as he said during the campaign.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/years-mitt-romney-finally-credit-warnings-russia/story?id=61330530

 

[Brisketexan 103193]

Your political bait should have been posted in the cloak room rather than here:

 

 
Madeleine Albright, who served as President Bill Clinton's secretary of state and supported President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, apologized to Romney, then Obama's Republican opponent and now Utah's junior senator, for her repeated criticism of his claim that Russia was the country's "number one geopolitical foe," as he said during the campaign.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/years-mitt-romney-finally-credit-warnings-russia/story?id=61330530
 

Sorry for the CR diversion. I’ll leave it with this: just turn on an episode of Tucker Carlson, on the country’s most watched news network, discussing this topic. I’ll let that speak for itself.

['stache 21496]

Seems pretty sloppy for a dictator to have his invasion plans intercepted by opposition intelligence. Also strange to release it through western media. Could it have been leaked on purpose to just sow instability? A test to see how the political media in the US responds to gauge how well their interference campaigns have taken hold (quite well from what I can tell). Ultimately there’s no way an invasion happens exactly as stated in a plan that the opposition has found and released to the public, right? It’ll need to be on a different timeline and different locations and tactics I would imagine. I think I’ve read that for d-day the Allies leaked a plan for a different location as a trick and it worked. Feels similar.

[Bevo 13419]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Sorry for the CR diversion. I’ll leave it with this: just turn on an episode of Tucker Carlson, on the country’s most watched news network, discussing this topic. I’ll let that speak for itself.

I don't watch that shit. In fact this morning for the first time in forever, I wanted to watch news to find out more on the Ukraine and it was all political garbage. And I don't even know where BBC is on Dish so that wasn't an option. Fox and CNN were both garbage - making totally political posts that mirrored each other and neither particularly covered the crisis. Fox was running some shit comparing the Canadian trucker intervention to the non-intervention when riots were happening in our cities. CNN was running some shit on racism and anti-vaxers among truckers and their ties to the Republican party. Awesome people when a major war is about to erupt. You should watch the Netflix show, "Don't Look Up". It pretty much nails the shit going on in our country.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

[Brisketexan 103193]

I don't watch that shit. In fact this morning for the first time in forever, I wanted to watch news to find out more on the Ukraine and it was all political garbage. And I don't even know where BBC is on Dish so that wasn't an option. Fox and CNN were both garbage - making totally political posts that mirrored each other and neither particularly covered the crisis. Fox was running some shit comparing the Canadian trucker intervention to the non-intervention when riots were happening in our cities. CNN was running some shit on racism and anti-vaxers among truckers and their ties to the Republican party. Awesome people when a major war is about to erupt. You should watch the Netflix show, "Don't Look Up". It pretty much nails the shit going on in our country.

Of that I am well aware.

We - and much of the West, it seems - won’t grasp reality until it makes us suffer and bleed directly. And by then, of course, it is far too late.

We’re headed for some unspeakable pain, and it’s unstoppable.

[utee94 15673]

Gloom Merchant in full effect, yo.

[Homercles 10164]

Maybe those plans discovered were dropped there by Mike Leach

[Brisketexan 103193]

Gloom Merchant in full effect, yo.

Es la verdad.

On a side note….don’t y’all think that this stands as a pretty strong capstone on the lesson of “if you have nukes, keep them, if you don’t, you better get them?”
At this point, I can’t come up with a single credible argument against any nation state deciding to obtain nukes as a deterrent.
Ukraine had them, but gave them up with an expectation that their security would be provided for. They chose…..poorly.

If I was the leader of Dickbuttistan, I’d be doing everything I could to get my hands on a nuke or three by Monday.

[FartingMonk 3604]

Damn.  When was the last time all embassies from all countries just leave

[52-80 18969]

57 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Your political bait should have been posted in the cloak room rather than here:

 

Child: mom, can we get some political adversaries?

Mom: we can make political adversaries at home

[Anastasis 23191]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Your political bait should have been posted in the cloak room rather than here:

 

 

Madeleine Albright, who served as President Bill Clinton's secretary of state and supported President Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, apologized to Romney, then Obama's Republican opponent and now Utah's junior senator, for her repeated criticism of his claim that Russia was the country's "number one geopolitical foe," as he said during the campaign.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/years-mitt-romney-finally-credit-warnings-russia/story?id=61330530

 

But you see, Tucker Carlson. Checkmate. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 hours ago, utee94 said:

Real question because I don't know and haven't ever followed it closely-- how likely is it that Ukraine would be admitted to NATO?

 

Essentially zero. There is an "unofficial' connection between NATO membership and an implicit EU membership track. The Germans have never been supportive of the idea of Ukraine joining NATO and the 2008 statement by NATO that Ukraine and Georgia woud "someday" join was made over German (and French) protestations. But after the obvious deterioration in the relationship between Germany and Ukraine (which was occurring well before this whole ordeal began), the past year has essentially cemented the German disdain for Ukraine. And Berlin will block any attempt for them to join for the forseeable future. I would say at least 25 years, and that is being generous to Ukraine.

 

That is not to say that they want it invaded or carved up or anything, but the German view that Ukraine admission to either entity will bring absoluely no benefits, but rather endless headaches and will undermine Continental security, has been confirmed in the eyes of the Germans. Germany is absolutely done bringing in eastern countries to the EU, and anything that provides momentum to a potential EU candidacy of Ukraine, which NATO membership would be, will be suffocated immediately in the womb by Berlin. Long gone are the days when some former Warsaw Pact countries were diamonds in the rough that a little TLC and direct investment could elevate to being great EU member states...looking at you, Czechs.

 

For perspective, for all the talk about how pathetic and dysfunctional the Russian GDP per capita is, the Ukrainian GDP per capita is about a third of that. It's a fucking trainwreck of a corrupt country and no amount of German taxpayer euros would be able to overcome the systemic corruption, governmental incompetence and structural/demographic decay that prevents it from functioning in any way resembling self-determination and self-sufficiency. The Ukrainian state has for years been unable to fund itself and it now depends to a very large degree on direct German and EU aid. Admitting them to the EU would make it even worse, as a massive country with somewhere around 45 million people (no one knows Ukraine's actual population because they haven't been able to carry out a census in over 20 years now), would be such a drain, and would create such a destabilizing effect on the EU, that it would cause ripple effects throughout the block. This isn't like potentially dragging in little Bosnia up to standards...this is a huge country with huge problems.

 

And outside of the above, there are at least another half-dozen member states that would kill their accession for their own reasons. France, Italy, Hungary come to mind. But there are others. Russia is simply too important in a lot of local economies for the block to ever get the required unanimity on Ukraine.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Shady Ray

[InkaUtexas 24834]

Putin has to do something and do it fast. Seeing on twitter a ton of equipment heading towards Ukraine. Major artillery and helicopters are part of that. No reason to move them for a local exercise. 

My guess is he goes in this week. 

[52-80 18969]

22 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

lol, some brave fucking Finns out there

They only need one

 

[CHIEF 5035]

Get your Ukrainian bride today, 70% off. A true "fire" sale. Gonna offer my guest room for asylum, no babushkas please.

CHIEF

Edited February 12, 2022 by CHIEF

[InkaUtexas 24834]

[phdhorn 6224]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Putin has to do something and do it fast. Seeing on twitter a ton of equipment heading towards Ukraine. Major artillery and helicopters are part of that. No reason to move them for a local exercise. 

My guess is he goes in this week. 

Maybe Ukraine's strategy is that Russia comes in so fast from the south, east, and north that they overrun and wipe out each other and Ukraine emerges victorious.

The only other thing I know is that I have a boat and bike trip scheduled through a few Danube countries this summer and if Russia makes that difficult for me I'll personally go over to Moscow and kick Putin's ass. Book it.

Edited February 12, 2022 by phdhorn

[Handcruser 2799]

Talked to a co-worker today. He’s from the Ukraine a raised in crimea. All of his family is still in the Ukraine.

Ukraine has a plan and he said they’ll never capitulate. They’ll take the fighting to the towns and send Russians home in body bags for a long time. Guerilla style. They can’t straight up fight them.

Get ready.

[Parliament 13984]

So are we gonna run some kinda bingo or drinking game for this war?

[NAVY 6612]

Drinking? I think we’ll need drugs for this one