Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

7 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Drinking? I think we’ll need drugs for this one 

Why not both !!!!?

[XYZ 2154]

It’s like some of y’all find this shit amusing.

[South Austin 52463]

47 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

They’ll take the fighting to the towns and send Russians home in body bags for a long time.

[InkaUtexas 25907]

14 minutes ago, XYZ said:

It’s like some of y’all find this shit amusing.

No, we don't. This is some serious shit, but remember you are on Surly and we make fun of everything. 

The withdraw of US and UK trainers is being announced. Add to it all diplomatic staff are moving either out or to the West of the country is also big. 

I think we need a drinking game. Every time Putin blames the west we all do a shot of Tito's (and thus support UT.) 

[Brothahorn 10087]

Sorry for the CR diversion. I’ll leave it with this: just turn on an episode of Tucker Carlson, on the country’s most watched news network, discussing this topic. I’ll let that speak for itself.

[Brothahorn 10087]

Talked to a co-worker today. He’s from the Ukraine a raised in crimea. All of his family is still in the Ukraine.

Ukraine has a plan and he said they’ll never capitulate. They’ll take the fighting to the towns and send Russians home in body bags for a long time. Guerilla style. They can’t straight up fight them.

Get ready.

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/19/1074010188/ukrainian-civilians-are-inspired-to-train-for-a-possible-war-with-russia

Can you imagine if we had to do this? I'm not sure 50% of us wouldn't just lay down

[atomheartbevo 89648]

37 minutes ago, XYZ said:

It’s like some of y’all find this shit amusing.

I'm not going to lie, and perhaps it's because of my age and having grown up during the Cold War, but given Putin's arrogance and demands for respect, I'd find it amusing if Ukraine turns into Putin's Afghanistan and becomes an absolute meat grinder for invading Russian forces.  The fact that NATO can easily keep Ukrainian resistance forces supplied with weapons makes that scenario a whole lot easier.

[Deej 76759]

5 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

1939 all over again

aggy:

[atomheartbevo 89648]

11 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/19/1074010188/ukrainian-civilians-are-inspired-to-train-for-a-possible-war-with-russia

Can you imagine if we had to do this? I'm not sure 50% of us wouldn't just lay down

Against an outside thread?  I think we would.  Yeah, the prepper types didn't handle the pandemic so well, but a flow-bee and shitty interior lighting would have taken care of their needs for Super Cuts and Chili's or Applebees. One problem we have is that as a percentage of population, those Americans who have military experience is shrinking as the Vietnam-aged folks die off.  Still, a whole shitload of people do have guns and they are well-distributed throughout the US, and we have a lot of really defensible terrain throughout the US.  You would need an invading force of millions upon millions invading all at once.

Here's the thing though:  The Ukrainians have had this in the back of their minds for almost a decade, since Crimea.  Hell, a Russian couple we know say the Ukrainians have been thinking about this since the early 90s, assuming that eventually the Russians would come knocking.  Are other European nations wishing they had done more to help arm/train Ukraine?  Probably, but there are a lot of Ukrainians who have been mentally preparing themselves for this, for many years.  As has been said, Putin is helping to forge a national Ukrainian identity among folks who maybe didn't feel it before.

[956 Worldwide 34705]

2 hours ago, Handcruser said:

Talked to a co-worker today. He’s from the Ukraine a raised in crimea. All of his family is still in the Ukraine.

Ukraine has a plan and he said they’ll never capitulate. They’ll take the fighting to the towns and send Russians home in body bags for a long time. Guerilla style. They can’t straight up fight them.

Get ready.

We shall see. The one option Ukrainians have that Afghans didn’t— they’re white Christians who can literally walk into the EU and the first world and start working somewhere. If this goes off, I’d want nothing more than to see Russia get mauled. That said, what would I do if I was a Ukrainian and a father or a husband? I’d be sorely tempted to say “fuck it, let him have it.” My grandkids will speak perfect Polish/German/Czech, drink good beer, and take holiday in the Canaries and these assholes’ grandkids will be stuck in Kharkiv. 
 

I try to be pretty detached, but I have friends and people I care about deeply in the country. Wars fucking suck. They suck more if you die. I don’t want them to die. 

[Gourmand 7774]

5 hours ago, Bevo said:

I don't watch that shit. In fact this morning for the first time in forever, I wanted to watch news to find out more on the Ukraine and it was all political garbage. And I don't even know where BBC is on Dish so that wasn't an option. Fox and CNN were both garbage - making totally political posts that mirrored each other and neither particularly covered the crisis. Fox was running some shit comparing the Canadian trucker intervention to the non-intervention when riots were happening in our cities. CNN was running some shit on racism and anti-vaxers among truckers and their ties to the Republican party. Awesome people when a major war is about to erupt. You should watch the Netflix show, "Don't Look Up". It pretty much nails the shit going on in our country.

Al Jazeera ftw

[FartingMonk 3606]

1 hour ago, Brothahorn said:

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/19/1074010188/ukrainian-civilians-are-inspired-to-train-for-a-possible-war-with-russia

Can you imagine if we had to do this? I'm not sure 50% of us wouldn't just lay down

Texas will be fine as long as HEB logistics pulls through.

[956 Worldwide 34705]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Es la verdad.

On a side note….don’t y’all think that this stands as a pretty strong capstone on the lesson of “if you have nukes, keep them, if you don’t, you better get them?”
At this point, I can’t come up with a single credible argument against any nation state deciding to obtain nukes as a deterrent.
Ukraine had them, but gave them up with an expectation that their security would be provided for. They chose…..poorly.

If I was the leader of Dickbuttistan, I’d be doing everything I could to get my hands on a nuke or three by Monday.

The lessons of both Ukraine and Iraq are to get/keep nukes if you ever think you might have a disagreement with someone. That said, Ukraine would have been worse than Pakistan as a potential proliferator for money, so it could be better for the world that they gave them up. 

[InkaUtexas 25907]

25 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We shall see. The one option Ukrainians have that Afghans didn’t— they’re white Christians who can literally walk into the EU and the first world and start working somewhere. If this goes off, I’d want nothing more than to see Russia get mauled. That said, what would I do if I was a Ukrainian and a father or a husband? I’d be sorely tempted to say “fuck it, let him have it.” My grandkids will speak perfect Polish/German/Czech, drink good beer, and take holiday in the Canaries and these assholes’ grandkids will be stuck in Kharkiv. 
 

I try to be pretty detached, but I have friends and people I care about deeply in the country. Wars fucking suck. They suck more if you die. I don’t want them to die. 

Agree. Watching how Russian doctrine hammers cities (Grozny and Sarajevo come to mind) I would not want my kids there, but I think I would stay. Get them out, prepare the best I could, and see what happens. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25907]

13 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Texas will be fine as long as HEB logistics pulls through.

Question is will they be open? 

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Question is will they be open? 

Geneva Convention article 12 section 3 calls for cessation of all hostility when HEB is open.

[FartingMonk 3606]

19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Agree. Watching how Russian doctrine hammers cities (Grozny and Sarajevo come to mind) I would not want my kids there, but I think I would stay. Get them out, prepare the best I could, and see what happens. 

 

Yeah.  They aren't going to be playing the hey guys they are shooting us from a mosque or a church we can't shoot back because it will offend someone.  They are going to bomb the shit out of it.  The building  leven looks at a Russian funny and it's getting razed.  I want no part of that shit.

[Bevo 13576]

7 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah.  They aren't going to be playing the hey guys they are shooting us from a mosque or a church we can't shoot back because it will offend someone.  They are going to bomb the shit out of it.  The building  leven looks at a Russian funny and it's getting razed.  I want no part of that shit.

Shit, we lost to fucking Viet-Nam. For every Germany vs. Luxembourg, there's an Abilene Christian waiting to rain 3s on your ass.

[phdhorn 6224]

49 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Texas will be fine as long as HEB logistics pulls through.

My wife went today and they were out of several things that they normally aren't. Additionally, in my own shopping in the last 2-3 weeks, there has been at least 2-3 that I've come back missing three or four things myself.

They are NOT pulling through and we're NOT alright!!!!!

[Brothahorn 10087]

8 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

My wife went today and they were out of several things that they normally aren't. Additionally, in my own shopping in the last 2-3 weeks, there has been at least 2-3 that I've come back missing three or four things myself.

They are NOT pulling through and we're NOT alright!!!!!

Last 3 times I have been to HEB/JoeV, they have been out of Texas toast. Fucking Russians.

[Brisketexan 105095]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The lessons of both Ukraine and Iraq are to get/keep nukes if you ever think you might have a disagreement with someone. That said, Ukraine would have been worse than Pakistan as a potential proliferator for money, so it could be better for the world that they gave them up. 

The problem is, both things are true.  Which sets up a clear recipe for 1) a shitload of countries getting nukes to cover their asses, and then 2) deciding at some point "hey, we can also make serious cash by selling some of our extras to bad actors."

If you want to set the stage for rogue nuclear bullshit, you couldn't do a much better job than the last 20 years of so have done.  Every Republic of Dickbuttistan will be trying to get nukes.   Some will succeed.  And some of them will sell their nuclear weapons/tech for hard currency.  And then, something somewhere will go big bam boom.

Putin's Russia is just lighting sticks of dynamite wherever they can.  They are going to start to go off, and right soon.

[956 Worldwide 34705]

13 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

The information side is what has me confused.  I've never seen such an overt action on information.  It's almost like Russia is telegraphing what they are doing and then the US going out and telling everyone.  Hey they just did this!  It's weird like Putin is baiting us into a fight.  The mass Graves thing may be that false flag they were warning us about.

It’s not all designed for us.  Ukraine and Russia were part of the same nation under the Tsars and Bolsheviks until 1992.  After the crackup, they maintained extremely cordial relations till at least 2007 with visa free travel, economic ties, educational connections.  Kind of a dysfunctional U.S-Canada thing going on. Millions and millions of Russians have family in Ukraine or are part Ukrainian themselves- and not just the so-called “Russian” East.  There is not a natural antipathy for Ukraine in Russia, and to the contrary Russians generally have liked Ukrainians.  
 

So how do you convince Russians that it’s OK to go and kill and loot in a country that is manifestly not threatening Russia and where maybe your second cousin is still living? You really have to fabricate something nefarious.  Just like us, the Russians like to see themselves as the heroes of the nightly news; the average Russian doesn’t relish walloping some Ukrainian pipe fitter for no good reason.

This also explains the obsessive coverage of the extremist Ukrainian elements and laser focus on fascists, real or alleged, in  Western Ukrainian.  First, the Great Patriotic War is the foundation story of modern Russian national identity. Russians are by nature even less eager to fight than Americans— but framing someone as a Nazi or Nazi sympathizer flips a switch that few Americans can understand. And this is especially important in Ukraine, because most Russians know good and well that millions of Ukrainians fought through blood and mud all the way to Berlin and that Ukraine suffered more than any other republic save Belarus. Hell, four Ukrainian cities were Hero Cities of the Soviet Union and they made up the title for Moscow to make sure the Russian Republic had enough. So you have to find some Nazis.

Second, Western Ukrainians are about as foreign as it gets in Ukraine, with a maintained culture and real history of obstreperous opposition to Russia (and yes, collaborationist history). And less of a diaspora into Russia itself— the West is the only place you hear Ukrainian and nothing else. So if you can frame this as Russia coming to the rescue of the poor benighted Ukraine, set upon by malicious Western Nazis, you have a reason for some Russians to fight. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It’s not all designed for us.  Ukraine and Russia were part of the same nation under the Tsars and Bolsheviks until 1992.  After the crackup, they maintained extremely cordial relations till at least 2007 with visa free travel, economic ties, educational connections.  Kind of a dysfunctional U.S-Canada thing going on. Millions and millions of Russians have family in Ukraine or are part Ukrainian themselves- and not just the so-called “Russian” East.  There is not a natural antipathy for Ukraine in Russia, and to the contrary Russians generally have liked Ukrainians.  
 

So how do you convince Russians that it’s OK to go and kill and loot in a country that is manifestly not threatening Russia and where maybe your second cousin is still living? You really have to fabricate something nefarious.  Just like us, the Russians like to see themselves as the heroes of the nightly news; the average Russian doesn’t relish walloping some Ukrainian pipe fitter for no good reason.

This also explains the obsessive coverage of the extremist Ukrainian elements and laser focus on fascists, real or alleged, in  Western Ukrainian.  First, the Great Patriotic War is the foundation story of modern Russian national identity. Russians are by nature even less eager to fight than Americans— but framing someone as a Nazi or Nazi sympathizer flips a switch that few Americans can understand. And this is especially important in Ukraine, because most Russians know good and well that millions of Ukrainians fought through blood and mud all the way to Berlin and that Ukraine suffered more than any other republic save Belarus. Hell, four Ukrainian cities were Hero Cities of the Soviet Union and they made up the title for Moscow to make sure the Russian Republic had enough. So you have to find some Nazis.

Second, Western Ukrainians are about as foreign as it gets in Ukraine, with a maintained culture and real history of obstreperous opposition to Russia (and yes, collaborationist history). And less of a diaspora into Russia itself— the West is the only place you hear Ukrainian and nothing else. So if you can frame this as Russia coming to the rescue of the poor benighted Ukraine, set upon by malicious Western Nazis, you have a reason for some Russians to fight. 

Yeah.  My knowledge of eastern Europe is from Dale Brown books and an upper level Eastern European history at UT and that's what I had always gotten from it was Russia and Ukraine were more aligned culturally than anything else.  Hell Moscow to Kiev is like 500 miles away.  With all that said I'm just surprised that the entire Russian order of battle is not even being disguised like Putin is doing this as a feint of some sort.  Kind of like when they send bombers and fighters into our zones just to see the response.  Even the reports of the actual combat units there is kind of suspect.  They are mostly antiquated weapons systems and planes.  It just seems a bit fishy.  Maybe Russia has some sort of cyber attack that disables satellites and renders our pilots blind initially.  It just seems a bit weird to me.   

[Gourmand 7774]

SIAP but I watched this video a couple of weeks ago and found it to be quite informative

 

 

[staboner 4969]

hey homies how we rolling? looks fun out there today. you guys have a nice friday? asking for a friend that always is asking about fridays. 

im going to the beach. beautiful day out

[Enchubben 5510]

Any good real time, informed twitter follows for news on this?

[FartingMonk 3606]

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-united-states-submarine-kurile-islands/31700784.html

Russia claims they detected and forced a sub to launch counter measures

[NAVY 6740]

Frigate detecting SSN 
 

lol ok 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

6 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Frigate detecting SSN 

lol ok 

Username definitely checks out.  

[FartingMonk 3606]

19 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Frigate detecting SSN 
 

lol ok 

Yeah when they said the sub launched a counter measure to escape.  I was like wait.  That's not how the counter measures work at all.

[Parliament 14255]

So are you suggesting the Russians lied about it all?  Bold statement there.

[tequila 317]

[956 Worldwide 34705]

European press is reporting that soon civilian flights to and over Ukraine will likely get cut off soon, as insurers will not cover the carriers.  Even if this doesn’t happen, this crisis is causing significant damage to Ukraine in all kinds of ways.

[FartingMonk 3606]

17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

European press is reporting that soon civilian flights to and over Ukraine will likely get cut off soon, as insurers will not cover the carriers.  Even if this doesn’t happen, this crisis is causing significant damage to Ukraine in all kinds of ways.

I would imagine all the oil and gas people have high tailed it out of there already

[Shady Ray 1633]

I think now that we are turning from the political positioning of the various external parties into what appears to be an actual military conflict, it could be worthwhile to discuss the political situation within Ukraine itself. The entire concept of a robust, organized resistance is entirely predicated on some semblance of unity on the homefront, which is absolutely not the case at the present moment. In fact, during the past few weeks, when a rational political class should have been pushing its constituents to coalesce around its existing government and putting their differences aside in order to focus on an external threat, Ukrainian leaders have done the exact opposite. In fact, at no point since the Maidan has Ukraine been more divided amongst its own, pro-Ukraine, pro-Western movements.

 

So, in that light, here is where the domestic political situation stands, at least in my estimation, as there are a ton of shifts going on within Ukraine at the moment that cannot be separated from this conflict. I have made no secret of my lack of confidence in the Ukrainian leadership, but at the same time I empathize with Zelensky’s situation - it is truly an impossible one - and I am going to give my best attempt to provide a neutral summary so that news can be perceived with an accurate backdrop of what is going on in Ukraine domestically, particularly once the bombs start dropping.
 

1. Petro Poroshenko
 

Firstly, it is impossible to understand Zelenksy’s position without understanding a bit about his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, who also remains his most significant existing rival.

 

Poroshenko was the fifth president of Ukraine, but more importantly, he was the first (excluding the nominal caretaker) after Maidan. Poroshenko is a confectionary magnate, and is an oligarch in his own right. His power base is in the far west of Ukraine, specifically Lviv, and he understandably took a fairly hardline stance against Russia after Maidan, Crimea, Donbass War, etc. In the 2014 election, which he won with an absolute majority in a crowded field on a platform of “Army, Language, Church”, Poroshenko secured backing from a wide variety of Ukrainian oligarchs, hawks within the Ukrainian military, etc.  And by midway through his presidency his relationship with the hard right elements that have been discussed earlier in this thread to formalize to the point where his administration was dependent on continued close ties with the hard-right.

 

Here are the electoral maps from Poroshenko's win in 2014. Light grey is Poroshenko:

 

 

 

 

Poroshenko also had firm backers in the US Govt, given his willingness to take on the Russian issue very aggressively. During Poroshenko’s tenure, the continued strangulation of the Ukrainian state by oligarchs tightened and Ukraine did assume a more robust position against Russia. Early in his administration, he supported some of the more controversial of the language laws escalating Ukrainian over Russian, which wasn't well received in Eastern Ukraine. He also legitimized/rehabilitated the nazi-collaborators of the OUN, which was very divisive east of the Dnieper, and he supported the creation separate Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was also an act that was very inflammatory in the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and was a large factor in the 2018 Orthodox schism between Moscow and Constantinople. There are many other examples of Poroshenko taking on positions that would make him very unpopular with the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, and I don’t think there is a rational analyst that could say that he was not indeed a hawk wrt Russia and Russian influence. 

 

Poroshenko is also as corrupt as can be. He is - even by Ukrainian standards - a completely immoral politician who was roundly kicked out of office for his corruption, losing to current president Zelensky by a margin of approx 75% to 25% in 2019. In German and French corners, Poroshenko is absolutely despised as embodying everything that is wrong about East Slavic corruption and governmental grift. He is known as the Chocolate Oligarch to the Germans and Merkel openly despised him, going so far as to teaming up with the Russians and French to essentially impose Minsk 2 on him from the outside, as the separatists were beginning to kick the shit out of the Ukrainian army in areas surrounding the Donbas back in early 2015.

 

Pictures are worth a thousand words, and you can see the entire Minsk 2 story play out in the following short clip, where you see Merkel, and former French president Francois Hollande welcome Putin warmly, and you can see Poroshenko's facial expression at the end when he is obligated to shake Putin's hand. It is of a man beaten into doing something he doesn't want to do. And sorry to post the clip from RT, but it isn't readily found elsewhere:

 

 

 

2. Current President Vlodomyr Zelensky

 

But to their credit, the Ukrainian people were so tired of Poroshenko's grift, self-dealing and enabling of even deeper corruption, that they kicked him out of office…although the result of that was giving the presidency to Zelensky, a slapstick-style comedian and a complete political novice who played the role of “Mr. Smith goes to Washington” style Ukrainian President on a TV show, along with other notable roles like feigning playing the piano with his dick for five-minute intervals on variety shows.

 

If you think I am being facetious, here is the clip of the future Ukrainian war-time president who now has the mandate to lead Ukraine into battle against the Russian Army. This was two years prior to his election. I think it goes without saying that he is not a serious person.

 

 

 

Not particularly Churchillian, either, but I digress.

 

Zelensky won, kicking the absolute shit out of Poroshenko. The people had tired of Poroshenko's corruption and Zelensky absolutely mopped the floor with him, leaving Poroshenko's sole base of power as the strongly nationalist areas in the far west of Ukraine surrounding Lviv. Here are the results of that election:

 

 

 

Zelensky ran on three primary issues against Poroshenko. 1) A peaceful and final resolution of Donbass situation, 2) elimination of oligarchs in Ukrainian politics, and 3) an end to the rampant culture of corruption in Ukraine that is an embarrassment to the rest of Europe. He has been completely unable to deliver anything with respect to 1 and 3, and he has limited his progress with respect to #2 to those oligarchs who oppose him, but not the ones who don't. The ones who support him, most notably the corrupt-as-fuck Igor Kolomoisky, who owns the TV station that used to run Zelensky’s shows, have been escalated to positions of essential de facto control of the Ukrainian state (as recently as last month Zelensky took his holiday along with Kolomoisky). Meanwhile, Zelensky has proceeded to shut down/seize over a half-dozen TV stations, which are always painted in English language media as purely “pro-Russian” stations, which many are. But many are actually pro-Western, but anti-Zelensky (2 of which were owned by the former president and anti-russian hawk Poroshenko). It is worth noting that Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, has also been investigated by the FBI for moving illicit funds in and out of the US via is ownership in Ukraine's largest bank, which directly relate to his mining empire, including much of it involving his West Virginia and Ohio mining operations. 

 

Bottom line re Zelensky, he is a complete novice who campaigned on dialing down conflict with Russia, his political "home" of being somewhere in between the hardline right and the hardline pro-Russian elements is becoming untenable. And both sides want him out and are significantly benefitting from the current tension, and each flank will continue to see political benefits if this goes hot. This is not a situation where every politician in Ukraine loses if war starts...in fact, the only one that truly loses is Zelensky. And perhaps another moderate, Dmytro Razumkov, who is Zelensky's primary competition from the moderate side, but who is essentially a non-factor at present.

 

3. Pro-Russian Politicians

 

On the other side, of course, are pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians like oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, who was placed under house arrest and has been largely sidelined. However, his pro-Russian party, OPFL, has joined with other pro-Russian gas tycoons and have now released an official position of Ukraine as a non-aligned country. These pro-Russians are not the only political movement with that tendency though. Yevhen Murayev - who the BBC reported a few weeks ago as being backed as a potential puppet installed by the Kremlin - is hated by Viktor Medvedchuk - and is trying to compete with OPFL as the “pro-Russian, yet moderate” alternative who can finally bring peace.

 

With Putin’s behavior galvanizing most of Ukraine into an anti-Russian position, it is unlikely that those pro-Russian movements will gain any additional traction, but at a local level in certain parts of Eastern Ukraine, it does put Zelensky into a tough position because his message of peace with Russia did play well there, and the erosion of faith there only contributes to the current instability with Zelensky. Each attempt to placate them with a peaceful resolution, however, is met with a corresponding counter-reaction in the nationalist areas of the West. So he truly is fucked.

 

4. Current Situation

 

As this situation has ramped up, Zelensky has tanked in the polls falling to the level of his rival Poroshenko. So there is an absolute benefit being felt by certain elements within Ukrainian politics. Recall the overwhelming support that Zelensky had coming in to his presidency in 2019...well, here is the current polling from a mixture of outlets. As you can see, support has not necessarily gone back to Poroshenko. It instead has just been scattered amongst a bunch of different movements. So at the moment, there is no clear heir apparent...and the ones which are in the running are all objectively as corrupt as can be. Poroshenko has been charged with treason, Tymoshenko has a 20 year history of absolutely unconscionable fraud and graft. But more importantly, there is no one currently on the horizon who could step in and rally the troops around a central figure. 

 

 

 

Zelensky’s department of justice then charged Poroshenko with treason in December 2021 and threatened to throw him in jail if he returned. Poroshenko returned defiantly last month, and made a complete farce of the televised proceedings, falling asleep multiple times in front of the judge and then holding a rally in front of the courthouse where he whipped up nationalist supporters, as he has a tendency to do now that his movement is essentially only supported by the various gradients of Ukrainian nationalism, ranging from legitimate patriots to the hardline far-right wingers. He also has support in Poland and elsewhere in some eastern European countries, but again, he is absolutely hated in western european capitals, but still has a lot of support in DC. Over the past few weeks, Poroshenko has been relentlessly bashing Zelensky, calling him incompetent and insufficiently pro-Ukrainian, and has spooled up his followers to have almost as much vitriol towards Zelensky that they do towards Moscow, which is saying something. At the moment, Poroshenko has cemented his return as the most powerful figure on the Ukrainian Right and he absolutely stands to benefit if Russia launches an attack.

 

It should be noted that it was somewhat of a surprise that Poroshenko wasn't thrown in jail upon his return and subsequent farcical bail hearing…he made a political spectacle of his return, and then made a joke of the hearing, but ultimately got maximum leniency. It came out later that Zelensky had been told by Justin Trudeau and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland not to arrest Poroshenko, to which the Ukrainian leadership responded by dutifully backing down, changing its mind and letting him walk. And that’s not conspiracy theory…the Globe and Mail were the ones who broke this.

 

"Canada Credited for Preventing Arrest of Former Ukrainian President": https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-credited-for-preventing-arrest-of-former-ukrainian-president/

 

So Poroshenko has good reason to believe that he still has the backing of the West, which he has had since he first took office in 2014, and his continued efforts towards internal Ukrainian destabilization from the pro-Ukrainian wing will likely continue. But most importantly to the current situation: Poroshenko and the pro-Russian sides each gain power under the current tensions. The Western media tries to portray Ukraine as united and prepared to fight Russia, but the truth is, the various political leaders are just as prepared to fight each other if the political winds allow a benefit to be derived by doing so. Now of course, that can change when the reality of an invasion sets in, but much of such a change would depend on these rivals throwing Zelensky support publicly, which is essentially an impossible expectation given these people's moral character, plus the fact that most of those on the right will blame Zelensky for allowing this to happen in the first place.

 

So in that light, assuming Russia invades, we should not be under the illusion that Ukrainian political movements are going to coalesce to support their government. Zelensky is in an awful position and he knows that the one the US truly wants in power, Poroshenko, is waiting in the wings. Any development in which Zelensky falls due to internal pressures should be looked at very, very suspiciously. This is one of the reasons he has been so vocal in calling for everyone to settle down, along with the legitimate concern that the hysteria is crushing what is left of the Ukrainian economy.

 

So from a political perspective, the question is: Assuming Zelensky is forced into snap elections to reconfirm the country’s confidence in his leadership, which many are already discussing, could those even occur with Russian artillery raining down and Russian troops on the move? Would such an election be seen as legitimate, both within Ukraine and abroad? And if not, what is the option if a sketch comedian proves himself unable to govern a country that is being torn apart internally, as well as at its external borders? Can an effective Ukrainian resistance led by a moderate with no military acumen, or will it descend into disparate groups fighting against the Russian invaders, while also carrying out their own internal steps to gain power? The New York Times did an article a few weeks back about who exactly surrounds Zelensky, and it wasn't pretty. It is essentially all former sketch comedians.

 

Ukraine has essentially spent the last 3 years whistling past the graveyard and there is absolutely no argument to be made that they are prepared internally for this. Their economy is cratering from even its typical abysmal state and they have burned a ton of bridges with some powerful allies in the west who are now taking domestic political heat for endlessly transferring them funds. Even with strong, centralized, cohesive leadership, this would be a very difficult undertaking…without such leadership, it has the potential to really get ugly across the board.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Nice Guy Eddie 13510]

Occurred a couple of days ago, but a B-52 task force from ND deployed to the UK. Unannounced but “long planned” by the Air Force.

[wild_turkey 3159]

Seems like leaking intel about a Wednesday invasion would be a good way to catch your enemy by surprise with a Monday or Tuesday invasion. Set them up thinking they have 1-2 more days than they actually do.

[Parliament 14255]

I'm gonna white knight again.  Perhaps we DO have good intelligence?  We've broke news on their plans a few times now.  Maybe we keep thwarting the invasion by releasing this stuff?

[MonkeyDoughnut 10232]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm gonna white knight again.  Perhaps we DO have good intelligence?  We've broke news on their plans a few times now.  Maybe we keep thwarting the invasion by releasing this stuff?

I'd go more with Russia purposefully letting out info. I'm thinking more likely what is occurring now is exactly what Putin was looking to achieve. Play the long game, be the one who turned out to actually have "no plans to invade" and let Ukraine slowly deteriorate on its own with interference from the west until internally support for Russian grows into a bigger movement.

[immamac 42839]

Buncha pussies. Russia ain't gonna do shit they are just trying to get more tiktok subs. 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Quote

So from a political perspective, the question is: Assuming Zelensky is forced into snap elections to reconfirm the country’s confidence in his leadership, which many are already discussing, could those even occur with Russian artillery raining down and Russian troops on the move? Would such an election be seen as legitimate, both withinUkraine and abroad? And if not, what is the option if a sketch comedian proves himself unable to govern a country that is being torn apart internally, as well as at its external borders? Can an effective Ukrainian resistance led by a moderate with no military acumen, or will it descend into disparate groups fighting against the Russian invaders, while also carrying out their own internal steps to gain power? The New York Times did an article a few weeks back about who exactly surrounds Zelensky, and it wasn't pretty. It is essentially all former sketch comedians.

@Shady Ray, I am pretty sure that the president is simply the president for his five year term, so any snap elections would be a secondary referendum on Zelenskyy via parliament. A snap poll also has to have higher than 50 percent turnout in Ukraine, and I can’t imagine that happening in the event of a major conflict.  
 

If the conflict is a big one, you’re talking things like a government in exile.  A big war knocks all the pieces off the board and you just start over with politics.  Where this does become interesting is if Russia recognizes LPR/DPR or annexes more chunks of Ukraine into Russia. 

[Captainant 27654]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

I think now that we are turning from the political positioning of the various external parties into what appears to be an actual military conflict, it could be worthwhile to discuss the political situation within Ukraine itself. The entire concept of a robust, organized resistance is entirely predicated on some semblance of unity on the homefront, which is absolutely not the case at the present moment. In fact, during the past few weeks, when a rational political class should have been pushing its constituents to coalesce around its existing government and putting their differences aside in order to focus on an external threat, Ukrainian leaders have done the exact opposite. In fact, at no point since the Maidan has Ukraine been more divided amongst its own, pro-Ukraine, pro-Western movements.

 

So, in that light, here is where the domestic political situation stands, at least in my estimation, as there are a ton of shifts going on within Ukraine at the moment that cannot be separated from this conflict. I have made no secret of my lack of confidence in the Ukrainian leadership, but at the same time I empathize with Zelensky’s situation - it is truly an impossible one - and I am going to give my best attempt to provide a neutral summary so that news can be perceived with an accurate backdrop of what is going on in Ukraine domestically, particularly once the bombs start dropping.
 

1. Petro Poroshenko
 

Firstly, it is impossible to understand Zelenksy’s position without understanding a bit about his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, who also remains his most significant existing rival.

 

Poroshenko was the fifth president of Ukraine, but more importantly, he was the first (excluding the nominal caretaker) after Maidan. Poroshenko is a confectionary magnate, and is an oligarch in his own right. His power base is in the far west of Ukraine, specifically Lviv, and he understandably took a fairly hardline stance against Russia after Maidan, Crimea, Donbass War, etc. In the 2014 election, which he won with an absolute majority in a crowded field on a platform of “Army, Language, Church”, Poroshenko secured backing from a wide variety of Ukrainian oligarchs, hawks within the Ukrainian military, etc.  And by midway through his presidency his relationship with the hard right elements that have been discussed earlier in this thread to formalize to the point where his administration was dependent on continued close ties with the hard-right.

 

Here are the electoral maps from Poroshenko's win in 2014. Light grey is Poroshenko:

 

 

 

 

Poroshenko also had firm backers in the US Govt, given his willingness to take on the Russian issue very aggressively. During Poroshenko’s tenure, the continued strangulation of the Ukrainian state by oligarchs tightened and Ukraine did assume a more robust position against Russia. Early in his administration, he supported some of the more controversial of the language laws escalating Ukrainian over Russian, which wasn't well received in Eastern Ukraine. He also legitimized/rehabilitated the nazi-collaborators of the OUN, which was very divisive east of the Dnieper, and he supported the creation separate Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was also an act that was very inflammatory in the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and was a large factor in the 2018 Orthodox schism between Moscow and Constantinople. There are many other examples of Poroshenko taking on positions that would make him very unpopular with the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, and I don’t think there is a rational analyst that could say that he was not indeed a hawk wrt Russia and Russian influence. 

 

Poroshenko is also as corrupt as can be. He is - even by Ukrainian standards - a completely immoral politician who was roundly kicked out of office for his corruption, losing to current president Zelensky by a margin of approx 75% to 25% in 2019. In German and French corners, Poroshenko is absolutely despised as embodying everything that is wrong about East Slavic corruption and governmental grift. He is known as the Chocolate Oligarch to the Germans and Merkel openly despised him, going so far as to teaming up with the Russians and French to essentially impose Minsk 2 on him from the outside, as the separatists were beginning to kick the shit out of the Ukrainian army in areas surrounding the Donbas back in early 2015.

 

Pictures are worth a thousand words, and you can see the entire Minsk 2 story play out in the following short clip, where you see Merkel, and former French president Francois Hollande welcome Putin warmly, and you can see Poroshenko's facial expression at the end when he is obligated to shake Putin's hand. It is of a man beaten into doing something he doesn't want to do. And sorry to post the clip from RT, but it isn't readily found elsewhere:

 

 

 

2. Current President Vlodomyr Zelensky

 

But to their credit, the Ukrainian people were so tired of Poroshenko's grift, self-dealing and enabling of even deeper corruption, that they kicked him out of office…although the result of that was giving the presidency to Zelensky, a slapstick-style comedian and a complete political novice who played the role of “Mr. Smith goes to Washington” style Ukrainian President on a TV show, along with other notable roles like feigning playing the piano with his dick for five-minute intervals on variety shows.

 

If you think I am being facetious, here is the clip of the future Ukrainian war-time president who now has the mandate to lead Ukraine into battle against the Russian Army. This was two years prior to his election. I think it goes without saying that he is not a serious person.

 

 

 

Not particularly Churchillian, either, but I digress.

 

Zelensky won, kicking the absolute shit out of Poroshenko. The people had tired of Poroshenko's corruption and Zelensky absolutely mopped the floor with him, leaving Poroshenko's sole base of power as the strongly nationalist areas in the far west of Ukraine surrounding Lviv. Here are the results of that election:

 

 

 

Zelensky ran on three primary issues against Poroshenko. 1) A peaceful and final resolution of Donbass situation, 2) elimination of oligarchs in Ukrainian politics, and 3) an end to the rampant culture of corruption in Ukraine that is an embarrassment to the rest of Europe. He has been completely unable to deliver anything with respect to 1 and 3, and he has limited his progress with respect to #2 to those oligarchs who oppose him, but not the ones who don't. The ones who support him, most notably the corrupt-as-fuck Igor Kolomoisky, who owns the TV station that used to run Zelensky’s shows, have been escalated to positions of essential de facto control of the Ukrainian state (as recently as last month Zelensky took his holiday along with Kolomoisky). Meanwhile, Zelensky has proceeded to shut down/seize over a half-dozen TV stations, which are always painted in English language media as purely “pro-Russian” stations, which many are. But many are actually pro-Western, but anti-Zelensky (2 of which were owned by the former president and anti-russian hawk Poroshenko). It is worth noting that Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, has also been investigated by the FBI for moving illicit funds in and out of the US via is ownership in Ukraine's largest bank, which directly relate to his mining empire, including much of it involving his West Virginia and Ohio mining operations. 

 

Bottom line re Zelensky, he is a complete novice who campaigned on dialing down conflict with Russia, his political "home" of being somewhere in between the hardline right and the hardline pro-Russian elements is becoming untenable. And both sides want him out and are significantly benefitting from the current tension, and each flank will continue to see political benefits if this goes hot. This is not a situation where every politician in Ukraine loses if war starts...in fact, the only one that truly loses is Zelensky. And perhaps another moderate, Dmytro Razumkov, who is Zelensky's primary competition from the moderate side, but who is essentially a non-factor at present.

 

3. Pro-Russian Politicians

 

On the other side, of course, are pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians like oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, who was placed under house arrest and has been largely sidelined. However, his pro-Russian party, OPFL, has joined with other pro-Russian gas tycoons and have now released an official position of Ukraine as a non-aligned country. These pro-Russians are not the only political movement with that tendency though. Yevhen Murayev - who the BBC reported a few weeks ago as being backed as a potential puppet installed by the Kremlin - is hated by Viktor Medvedchuk - and is trying to compete with OPFL as the “pro-Russian, yet moderate” alternative who can finally bring peace.

 

With Putin’s behavior galvanizing most of Ukraine into an anti-Russian position, it is unlikely that those pro-Russian movements will gain any additional traction, but at a local level in certain parts of Eastern Ukraine, it does put Zelensky into a tough position because his message of peace with Russia did play well there, and the erosion of faith there only contributes to the current instability with Zelensky. Each attempt to placate them with a peaceful resolution, however, is met with a corresponding counter-reaction in the nationalist areas of the West. So he truly is fucked.

 

4. Current Situation

 

As this situation has ramped up, Zelensky has tanked in the polls falling to the level of his rival Poroshenko. So there is an absolute benefit being felt by certain elements within Ukrainian politics. Recall the overwhelming support that Zelensky had coming in to his presidency in 2019...well, here is the current polling from a mixture of outlets. As you can see, support has not necessarily gone back to Poroshenko. It instead has just been scattered amongst a bunch of different movements. So at the moment, there is no clear heir apparent...and the ones which are in the running are all objectively as corrupt as can be. Poroshenko has been charged with treason, Tymoshenko has a 20 year history of absolutely unconscionable fraud and graft. But more importantly, there is no one currently on the horizon who could step in and rally the troops around a central figure. 

 

 

 

Zelensky’s department of justice then charged Poroshenko with treason in December 2021 and threatened to throw him in jail if he returned. Poroshenko returned defiantly last month, and made a complete farce of the televised proceedings, falling asleep multiple times in front of the judge and then holding a rally in front of the courthouse where he whipped up nationalist supporters, as he has a tendency to do now that his movement is essentially only supported by the various gradients of Ukrainian nationalism, ranging from legitimate patriots to the hardline far-right wingers. He also has support in Poland and elsewhere in some eastern European countries, but again, he is absolutely hated in western european capitals, but still has a lot of support in DC. Over the past few weeks, Poroshenko has been relentlessly bashing Zelensky, calling him incompetent and insufficiently pro-Ukrainian, and has spooled up his followers to have almost as much vitriol towards Zelensky that they do towards Moscow, which is saying something. At the moment, Poroshenko has cemented his return as the most powerful figure on the Ukrainian Right and he absolutely stands to benefit if Russia launches an attack.

 

It should be noted that it was somewhat of a surprise that Poroshenko wasn't thrown in jail upon his return and subsequent farcical bail hearing…he made a political spectacle of his return, and then made a joke of the hearing, but ultimately got maximum leniency. It came out later that Zelensky had been told by Justin Trudeau and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland not to arrest Poroshenko, to which the Ukrainian leadership responded by dutifully backing down, changing its mind and letting him walk. And that’s not conspiracy theory…the Globe and Mail were the ones who broke this.

 

"Canada Credited for Preventing Arrest of Former Ukrainian President": https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-credited-for-preventing-arrest-of-former-ukrainian-president/

 

So Poroshenko has good reason to believe that he still has the backing of the West, which he has had since he first took office in 2014, and his continued efforts towards internal Ukrainian destabilization from the pro-Ukrainian wing will likely continue. But most importantly to the current situation: Poroshenko and the pro-Russian sides each gain power under the current tensions. The Western media tries to portray Ukraine as united and prepared to fight Russia, but the truth is, the various political leaders are just as prepared to fight each other if the political winds allow a benefit to be derived by doing so. Now of course, that can change when the reality of an invasion sets in, but much of such a change would depend on these rivals throwing Zelensky support publicly, which is essentially an impossible expectation given these people's moral character, plus the fact that most of those on the right will blame Zelensky for allowing this to happen in the first place.

 

So in that light, assuming Russia invades, we should not be under the illusion that Ukrainian political movements are going to coalesce to support their government. Zelensky is in an awful position and he knows that the one the US truly wants in power, Poroshenko, is waiting in the wings. Any development in which Zelensky falls due to internal pressures should be looked at very, very suspiciously. This is one of the reasons he has been so vocal in calling for everyone to settle down, along with the legitimate concern that the hysteria is crushing what is left of the Ukrainian economy.

 

So from a political perspective, the question is: Assuming Zelensky is forced into snap elections to reconfirm the country’s confidence in his leadership, which many are already discussing, could those even occur with Russian artillery raining down and Russian troops on the move? Would such an election be seen as legitimate, both within Ukraine and abroad? And if not, what is the option if a sketch comedian proves himself unable to govern a country that is being torn apart internally, as well as at its external borders? Can an effective Ukrainian resistance led by a moderate with no military acumen, or will it descend into disparate groups fighting against the Russian invaders, while also carrying out their own internal steps to gain power? The New York Times did an article a few weeks back about who exactly surrounds Zelensky, and it wasn't pretty. It is essentially all former sketch comedians.

 

Ukraine has essentially spent the last 3 years whistling past the graveyard and there is absolutely no argument to be made that they are prepared internally for this. Their economy is cratering from even its typical abysmal state and they have burned a ton of bridges with some powerful allies in the west who are now taking domestic political heat for endlessly transferring them funds. Even with strong, centralized, cohesive leadership, this would be a very difficult undertaking…without such leadership, it has the potential to really get ugly across the board.

It's interesting that Paul Manafort was one of the most influential political operatives in getting Poroshenko into office and getting the grift mill really kicked into high gear - especially considering the attempts to undercut Zelensky in 2020 by the US. It's gonna take a complete overhaul of their government to purge the deeply inset oligarchy and corruption

[956 Worldwide 34705]

10 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I'd go more with Russia purposefully letting out info. I'm thinking more likely what is occurring now is exactly what Putin was looking to achieve. Play the long game, be the one who turned out to actually have "no plans to invade" and let Ukraine slowly deteriorate on its own with interference from the west until internally support for Russian grows into a bigger movement.

I don’t think I’m there. Putin has simply set the table. The fact is that he cannot launch a lightning surprise strike from probably the most reconnoitered patch of geography outside the Taiwan strait. There’s no need to be sneaky, this is just going to be a fight.  So what has this done:

1. He’s pulled Ukrainian defenses into maximum readiness.  Russian planners know exactly what they are up against and they’re keeping Ukrainian personnel exhausted and stressed.

2. He has played the Alliance into tipping its cards.  He now knows that NATO won’t intervene. He’s gotten a sense how how much arms and reinforcements can get to Ukraine.  There is no doubt that his intelligence services are scrambling to find out the details of where each Ally is on response and what sanctions are going to bite him, and feeding that back. 
 

Like I said, he’s set the table.  He knows what the fight will look like, he knows the consequences, he can decide if the juice is worth it for him.  

[Shady Ray 1633]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If the conflict is a big one, you’re talking things like a government in exile.  A big war knocks all the pieces off the board and you just start over with politics.  Where this does become interesting is if Russia recognizes LPR/DPR or annexes more chunks of Ukraine into Russia. 

Yeah, that's gonna be really interesting. They are supposed to take it up in subcommittee in the Duma on Tuesday, I think. But United Russia has not signed onto the resolution or given a "tell" which way they are going to go. Definitely something to watch.

[phdhorn 6224]

Re: Ray's post

tl;didread:  Ukraine is a shitshow.  No film at 11 because it's obvious.

Ray knows his stuff, no doubt, but this is pretty much what I've always said after 2014 when I got interested in this and started reading about it.  Ukraine has adopted more poorly to post-1989 freedom than any of the major former SSR's (or pseudo-SSR's) that I've read.  I'd like to find out more about why they have so badly screwed themselves - perhaps it's the oligarchical culture as Ray defines, perhaps it's such a mixed bag of identities that there is no real self-identity, or perhaps they just don't know how to do democratic elections, the "Russian system" being burned into their culture, I don't know.  But it seems that the Poroshenko's and the Zelensky's (Kuchma was a crook in the 90's, and of course the Yushchenko affair, followed by the Yanukovych presidency, which mysteriously flip-flopped more to the Russian side of things, which of course was right after Tymoshenko's Prime Ministership (and subsequent conviction of fraud and corruption, with a 7-year jail sentence, 3 years served).  I mean, this government history makes Xi Jiping and the Chicom Boys look like amateurs in comparison!). 

The Ukraine situation existed long before Manafort or 2014; it had been bad (though not as much so) through the 1990's and into the 2000's.  They just either suck, are corrupt, or can't get out of their own way.

Ray or 956, do you think Germany is hedging so much not only because of the gas issues, but because Ukraine is such a stinking mess, and has been?

Edited February 13, 2022 by phdhorn

[phdhorn 6224]

Oh, and today I read that now 20 naval war vessels, not just 6, are in the Black Sea.  Probably just drag racing each other for fun.  Yeah, that's it.

[Captainant 27654]

4 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

The Ukraine situation existed long before Manafort or 2014; it had been bad (though not as much so) through the 1990's and into the 2000's.  They just either suck, are corrupt, or can't get out of their own way.

FWIW, Manafort had been operating in Ukraine since 2004 and working exclusively with oligarchs that bought up all the privatized shares of the formerly nationalized industries. None of what he was doing was all that dogmatic or principled - just helping oligarchs become powerful and then skimming tens of millions of dollars off of them, as well as trading on their influence.

Check out the Behind the Bastards episodes on Manafort if you're into that sort of thing

[Shady Ray 1633]

11 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Ray or 956, do you think Germany is hedging so much not only because of the gas issues, but because Ukraine is such a stinking mess, and has been?

Yes. Absolutely.

5 out of the 6 political parties in the Bundestag (Social Democrats, Christian Democrats/Social Union, Free Democrats, The Left, Alternative fur Deutschland) would end any type of support for Ukraine this afternoon if it didn't mean getting sideways with Washington. Only the Greens wouldn't.

 

Reading the true German sentiment in polls or media is tough because Germans want to come across as enlightened/pro-democratic, etc., but truth be told the level of which Ukraine is disliked by Germans is completely unlike any other country. And some of that is just good old-fashioned German xenophobia towards Slavs, but a lot of that is because the PR strategy of Ukraine has not been particularly wise vis a vis Germany.

 

At some point, Germans get tired of being referred to as Nazis because the country they pump billions into doesn't get weapons. Ukraine is seen by Germans as an unserious country that can't get its shit together. I was sitting at dinner with a German colleague a few weeks ago and we were discussing this...his statement was "Anti-Ukraine sentiment is the only xenophobia that we are still allowed to get by with in polite company." And he is right.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34705]

23 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Re: Ray's post

tl;didread:  Ukraine is a shitshow.  No film at 11 because it's obvious.

Ray knows his stuff, no doubt, but this is pretty much what I've always said after 2014 when I got interested in this and started reading about it.  Ukraine has adopted more poorly to post-1989 freedom than any of the major former SSR's (or pseudo-SSR's) that I've read.  I'd like to find out more about why they have so badly screwed themselves - perhaps it's the oligarchical culture as Ray defines, perhaps it's such a mixed bag of identities that there is no real self-identity, or perhaps they just don't know how to do democratic elections, the "Russian system" being burned into their culture, I don't know.  But it seems that the Poroshenko's and the Zelensky's (Kuchma was a crook in the 90's, and of course the Yushchenko affair, followed by the Yanukovych presidency, which mysteriously flip-flopped more to the Russian side of things, which of course was right after Tymoshenko's Prime Ministership (and subsequent conviction of fraud and corruption, with a 7-year jail sentence, 3 years served).  I mean, this government history makes Xi Jiping and the Chicom Boys look like amateurs in comparison!). 

The Ukraine situation existed long before Manafort or 2014; it had been bad (though not as much so) through the 1990's and into the 2000's.  They just either suck, are corrupt, or can't get out of their own way.

Ray or 956, do you think Germany is hedging so much not only because of the gas issues, but because Ukraine is such a stinking mess, and has been?

Germany’s reticence with Ukraine is absolutely partly to do with Ukrainian ineptness and corruption.  There’s no doubt about that, and for U.S. official policy in Ukraine, “rule of law” has ranked right behind “Russia invades” as the biggest problem.

However, lots of nations are corrupt, so why is it so particularly toxic in Ukraine? The answer is that Russia uses corruption as a strategic weapon, first.  Second, in sort of grim irony, corruption damages Ukraine more because Ukraine actually does make fits and starts towards rule of law and because it is a real but flawed democracy. 
 

Speaking as someone with lots of experience inside former Soviet and eastern bloc states, Ukrainian corruption is not qualitatively worse than in nearly any of the non-EU/NATO states.  The difference is that in places like Belarus, Russia, the Stans, or Azerbaijan, corruption is both entrenched and predictable, and more or less regulated by authorities.  When anti-corruption initiatives are undertaken, you can be confident that they are actually tools of political coercion against entities that have fallen out of favor with the regime.  This also makes for a more stable investment climate— one generally knows the ground rules of how much one will pay in bribes and to whom, and more importantly— that the person one bribes today will still be around as your “roof” tomorrow.

Ukraine has equally pernicious corruption, but it also has genuine political competition.  At one point or another, virtually every political competitor is exposed. That means that even a genuine anticorruption effort (there have actually been some) is bound to be exploited and perceived as a simple political attack on rivals (often they are political). And what’s more, there is no predictability in the system, because political leadership can change and now all of a sudden the politicians who were your clients are on the outside and you’re a target yourself. 
 

This is a state of affairs that Russia exploits and encourages. It is official Russian state policy to tunnel into as many politicians as possible in Ukraine (and other countries) because corruption is a strategic win for them.  And Ukraine was a satellite for most of its history.  We tend to forget that even in 2004 the Russia backed candidate very nearly stole an election and also poisoned his rival (almost certainly with Russian help).  Any nation that is in Russia’s sphere of influence will have corruption issues. Balts managed to break out of this cycle by fleeing into the NATO and EU shadow and then deciding to just start breaking some eggs. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Shady Ray 1633]

I think 956 makes some good points there...particularly the points about why Ukraine is targeted while others aren't. And from a German perspective, much of it is because of money. Azerbaijan doesn't get (nor do they vocally demand) large amounts of German money. Nor does Belarus, of course. But Ukraine's position to Germany from an optical perspective is "Fuck you. Pay us." We will siphon gas meant for you, we will blatantly steal your infrastructure investments and direct them into the pockets of our worst oligarchs, and then we will complain in public standing right next to your ministers about how you don't care to support us and will disparage you to American presidents about how much you suck. But nevertheless, pay us.
 

And not to get back into this, because to some degree it is like disparaging the soon-to-be-dead, but from a PR perspective, the refusal of certain elements in Ukrainian politics/military to shut down Nazi marches honoring the SS Galicia, or continue to display the Wolfsangel at every fucking turn, or venerate Stepan Bandera, is a huge PR problem here. As we have discussed, that is by no means a significant percentage Ukrainians and the Russians massively overstate this as part of their propaganda, but they are very vocal and it is a serious issue within Germany and it is very visible. And the Germans just don’t want to go back down that road and some Ukrainians for some reason can’t see how much harm this does them in Germany, so they continue to do it. It is a real problem here.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Shady Ray