Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[FartingMonk 3606]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Counterpoint:

1. He's stressed Russian forces just as much, if not more.  Some of those units are tough to deploy and not used to this.  These aren't infantry you can throw in the back of a truck and haul up to the border and put them in tents.  A lot of that equipment is high maintenance, they are deployed away from their bases, in the winter.

2. NATO was never going to intervene.  He also does not know how much NATO will send  in terms of arms/training if he invades, but he knows it will be a lot.  NATO will not pass up the chance to fund an insurgency against Russia in its own backyard.

Additionally: He is unifying a big chunk of Ukraine.  A lot of Russians talk about how the Ukrainians are not that different from Russia, but he's providing something for a lot of Ukrainians to coalesce around.

The posture is extremely weird.  If this was a poker hand he has 3 betted all the way to the river and he's hoping his opponent folds.  People at the table is calling time on him right now as the west has just made a bet on the river and he's asking if they have aces.  He's at the pacing and taking his sunglasses off and staring.  His chip stack is low so he is going to re raise with an all in.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 Anyone up for a game of Risk? 

[Brothahorn 10087]

I think we should invade Ukraine. 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

Yes, Ukraine presents such a major security concern to Russia, what with their annexing parts of Russia and all.

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26411]

2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Hang on in this scenario is that the U.S. or Russia?

The human race. And this guy's in the top 1% because he's shitting while he accomplishes something. Most of us just roll around in it, wake up in it, go back to sleep in it.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yes, Ukraine presents such a major security concern to Russia, what with their annexing parts of Russia and all.

 

 

That guy needs his ass kicked.

[Bevo 13576]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Could we maybe make a swipe at baja while this is all going down?

Does that give California more electors? Let's take over the Caribbean, Panama and Costa Rica.

[bolverk 29668]

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by bolverk

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Moving all of that infantry to near Ukraine is interesting.  If this goes south and you get riots/protests in Russian cities, they will have to make some interesting decisions. I'm guessing they'll be calling up their reserve units. I know the civilian police agency is extremely large, but most of it is like any similar organization - much of the personnel will be on the back-end, and not the ones in the streets with riot shields and batons.

 

66% of Russia's combat capable forces massed in a small area and out in the open is a pretty juicy target.....Not saying, just saying. 

[Telegraph_it 3357]

Kind of badass. 
 

[Bigbend1812 12915]

1 hour ago, Grade of D as in David said:

[Bigbend1812 12915]

[Telegraph_it 3357]

Getting closer. 
 

[Parliament 14255]

40 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Kind of badass. 
 

 

7 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Getting closer. 
 

What am I looking at here?

[Telegraph_it 3357]

Just now, Parliament said:

 

What am I looking at here?

Nuclear capable B-52s about to get refueled midair I think. 

[staboner 4969]

[FartingMonk 3606]

23 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Nuclear capable B-52s about to get refueled midair I think. 

It's a squadron of b52s coming roan RAF base.  No nukes.  We only fly nukes to and from Minor or Barksdale.  Will never land anywhere with it.  

[Anastasis 23469]

19 minutes ago, staboner said:

Gonna be some real shit if you made it through all those no nuke fridays from 2017-2021 just to fly the plane into the mountain now, huh.  

[Trey3216 15346]

4 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

When I was detailed to the AIPAC summit ( pretty much standing around with thumb up my ass)in Hawaii.  I had a discussion about such a scenario with a bored mid level officer.  He said when the president moves everyone thinks it is secret service.  He said the behind the scenes with military assets kind of assures the host country doesn't do anything stupid.  It would be pretty fucking rad though.  Putin has Biden at some state dinner and says if you excuse me for a moment I have something to attend to and just walks out.  The panic would be at level 1 billion.

Most of the serious secret service detail are former special forces folks.   

[atomheartbevo 89652]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

66% of Russia's combat capable forces massed in a small area and out in the open is a pretty juicy target.....Not saying, just saying. 

If this were a Tom Clancy novel, the Ukrainians would have figured out how to take them all out, maybe some kind of kamikaze thing, maybe a few leftover nukes nobody knew about, whatever.

And then shit would get really interesting.

[ChiTownDoc 21152]

5 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Hang on in this scenario is that the U.S. or Russia?

I don’t know but the guy in the black jacket who lost the will to live represents all of us.  

[FartingMonk 3606]

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Most of the serious secret service detail are former special forces folks.   

That is what I thought but it isnt true.  The alpha guys who like to shoot stuff go onto other places or go private.  Secret service is quite the opposite of what they want to do.  If a secret service agent ever fires a shot in anger they have already failed their job.

[BrickHorn 18219]

1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

Nuclear capable B-52s about to get refueled midair I think. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If this were a Tom Clancy novel, the Ukrainians would have figured out how to take them all out, maybe some kind of kamikaze thing, maybe a few leftover nukes nobody knew about, whatever.

And then shit would get really interesting.

Red Storm Rising, I think. Millions of small autonomous smart bombs took out all of China’s armor in one fell swoop. 

Edit: Bear and the Dragon, not Red storm Rising

Edited February 14, 2022 by Pescado_Rojo
Wrong book

[FartingMonk 3606]

2 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Red Storm Rising, I think. Millions of small autonomous smart bombs took out all of China’s armor in one fell swoop. 

Dale Brown but instead of Ukraine it was Lithuania.  

[atomheartbevo 89652]

13 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Red Storm Rising, I think. Millions of small autonomous smart bombs took out all of China’s armor in one fell swoop. 

It was back in the late 20th century when I last read it and I don't remember the bit about China, but do remember about the Soviet Union being crippled economically and having oil supply issues.

 

[Upgrayedd 5810]

50 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Red Storm Rising, I think. Millions of small autonomous smart bombs took out all of China’s armor in one fell swoop. 

Nothing about this is accurate 

[immamac 42841]

Bomb them. We are supposed to be in the fuck around and find out phase of this already

[0xdeadbeef 1648]

3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

66% of Russia's combat capable forces massed in a small area and out in the open is a pretty juicy target.....Not saying, just saying. 

Even if you removed 100% of Russia's combat capable forces, they can still destroy all life on earth. It's the fucking nukes that scare the shit out of me. Same with China; there is no 'winning' a large scale conventional war against either of them.

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Will be interesting to see how the below would play out, both within Ukraine and with Russia. I can't imagine that the Poroshenko wing would go for this at all, and I think any journey down this road would be short lived in Kiev. But interesting nevertheless.

 

If this was somehow sufficient to de-escalate, the Germans would open up the fuckin' Bundesbank wide to make it worth Ukraine's while, in exchange for formal recognition that the NATO membership track was formally over. Ukrainian oligarchs would feast on tasty German-issued euros for years.

 

Quote

Ukraine could drop Nato ambitions to avoid war, ambassador says
Ukraine would consider ‘serious concessions’ including removing the goal of joining the Nato alliance from its constitution.

Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has said the country could consider dropping its ambition to join Nato to avoid war with Russia
 

Vadym Prystaiko told BBC Radio 5 that the country would, due to threats and blackmail, consider “serious concessions” including removing the goal of joining the Nato alliance from the Ukrainian constitution.
 

It comes as armed forces minister James Heappey warned against extending Nato’s “collective security” to a non-member and Boris Johnson is due to join last-ditch diplomatic efforts in Europe.

Mr Heappey said the deterrence of Russia needed to go beyond economic sanctions, but that Nato’s “defensive” operations were “very different” from offering its collective security to a non-member “especially with the very real possibility that the alliance fractures as a result”.

Writing in The Times, Mr Heappey said: “Nato has always been a defensive alliance that sovereign nations have chosen to join for their collective security. Nato does not attack others.
 

“Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Nato has deployed beyond its borders to Afghanistan in response to an attack on the United States; played a role in counterinsurgency and counterpiracy missions in sub- Saharan Africa, Iraq and the Indian Ocean; and played an important part in stabilising the Balkans after the break-up of the former Yugoslavia.
 

“I would argue, however, that these are all very different from offering the collective security of the alliance to a non-member especially with the very real possibility that the alliance fractures as a result. It would also be exactly the pretext Putin needs to claim that he’s responding to western aggression on his borders.”
 

As Ukraine is not a Nato member and allies in the defence alliance have said they would not join fighting in Ukraine but have bolstered forces in neighbouring nations and are threatening widespread sanctions.
 

Downing Street conceded Moscow could be planning to invade “at any moment” but the Prime Minister will hold talks with world leaders before a trip to Europe during this week’s “window of opportunity” for de-escalation.
 

The UK and other Nato allies have urged their citizens to flee Ukraine and some airlines have cancelled flights to Kyiv amid growing concerns that the estimated 130,000 Russian troops amassed on the border could be poised to attack.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ukraine-nato-russia-prime-minister-boris-johnson-b2014457.html

 

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34705]

It require a 2/3 vote in parliament to amend, and it would be interesting to see where they'd get that.  I am also not at all sure Russia would be satisfied, because a future government could change its mind.  And NATO would still be unlikely to say "we accept this decision once and forever," the same way the door is always open to Finns or Swedes. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

It require a 2/3 vote in parliament to amend, and it would be interesting to see where they'd get that.  I am also not at all sure Russia would be satisfied, because a future government could change its mind.  And NATO would still be unlikely to say "we accept this decision once and forever," the same way the door is always open to Finns or Swedes. 

Yeah, assuming it did pass, which I don't think it would, it would have to be something far more substantive than just removing it from the constitution. It would have to be some type of first step towards formalized Finlandization, and I just don't see that happening.

 

Plus, the Twitters are saying Zelensky is saying this is absolutely not on the table and that the UK Ambassador spoke out of school.

 

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

And once again a fresh demand from Ukrainian Ambassador to Berlin this morning for 12,000 anti-tank missiles from Germany. I really don't understand this approach. The Germans have not budged one, single, solitary inch and they clearly aren't going to. The entire world is already aware of Germany's refusal to supply arms and repeatedly coming on German TV "demanding" arms (and he is demanding) is not shedding any new light on their continued refusal. But by doing this every other fucking day, they are just pissing the German people off even more. The German people are the ones refusing this...not just the German Government. The public support for not giving them weapons is rock solid...this is coming across almost like a personal obsession at this point. The German psyche gets off on demonstrating stubborness in these situations. Melnyk needs to just let it go at this point, as he is doing more harm than good.

 

Also, Scholz in Kiev today, and in Moscow to meet with Putin mañana. 

 

Ukrainian ambassador demands 12,000 anti-tank missiles from Germany
Monday, 02/14, 7:16 a.m.: Before Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Kiev, the Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin renewed the demand for heavy weapons from Germany. On Bild2-TV, Andrij Melnyk demanded the immediate delivery of 12,000 anti-tank missiles on Sunday in order to be able to fend off a possible Russian ground offensive against Ukraine. "The situation is already dramatic," he said. What we have to be prepared for today is the worst scenario.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-bundeskanzler-scholz-reist-nach-kiew_id_52139887.html

[FartingMonk 3606]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Yeah, assuming it did pass, which I don't think it would, it would have to be something far more substantive than just removing it from the constitution. It would have to be some type of first step towards formalized Finlandization, and I just don't see that happening.

 

Plus, the Twitters are saying Zelensky is saying this is absolutely not on the table and that the UK Ambassador spoke out of school.

 

 

I think we have read this story before.  Chamberlain 2: Electric Bugaloo

[Shady Ray 1633]

Head of the governing SPD's Parliamentary Group going hard in the paint vs the US this morning on the German version of Good Morning America:

 

It must be publicly acknowledged "that Russia also has legitimate security interests," says SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich. The country is unsettled. The USA's "major mistakes," such as the war in Iraq, also played a role. 

Ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Kiev, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich also attributed Russian security concerns to "major mistakes" made by the U.S. government under then-President George W. Bush. In addition to the "invasion of Iraq," he named "distortions here in Europe" and the "departure from arms control."
 

"All of these are things that also unsettle Russia," Mützenich told ARD's "Morgenmagazin." "I don't share certain concerns, but I certainly understand them."
 

He added that it must be publicly acknowledged "that Russia also has legitimate security interests." "This has nothing to do with Ukraine," but "with the U.S. and its elimination of arms agreements."
 

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article236887795/Ukraine-Muetzenich-Grosser-Fehler-der-USA.html

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Head of the governing SPD's Parliamentary Group going hard in the paint vs the US this morning on the German version of Good Morning America:

 

It must be publicly acknowledged "that Russia also has legitimate security interests," says SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich. The country is unsettled. The USA's "major mistakes," such as the war in Iraq, also played a role. 

Ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to Kiev, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich also attributed Russian security concerns to "major mistakes" made by the U.S. government under then-President George W. Bush. In addition to the "invasion of Iraq," he named "distortions here in Europe" and the "departure from arms control."
 

"All of these are things that also unsettle Russia," Mützenich told ARD's "Morgenmagazin." "I don't share certain concerns, but I certainly understand them."
 

He added that it must be publicly acknowledged "that Russia also has legitimate security interests." "This has nothing to do with Ukraine," but "with the U.S. and its elimination of arms agreements."
 

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article236887795/Ukraine-Muetzenich-Grosser-Fehler-der-USA.html

 

How big of a role do you think the shadow group that Putin runs  the Wagner group is playing in this entire thing?  I keep hearing rumors about this guy's like the ate some sort of bogeyman but that's all.

[52-80 19150]

5 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Even if you removed 100% of Russia's combat capable forces, they can still destroy all life on earth. It's the fucking nukes that scare the shit out of me. Same with China; there is no 'winning' a large scale conventional war against either of them.

 

Only one person can save us now

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

7 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

Nothing about this is accurate 

Okay obviously I'm remembering the wrong book. Damnit, now I've got to figure out what book this is from. Back before Netflix allowed downloads to a tablet I used to read a shitload of these type books on work trips. It's probably in a box in my closet somewhere... 

[utee94 15812]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Only one person can save us now

 

I was thinking more like:

 

[pacman 7355]

Maybe the Ukrainian 007 slips into Rissian camps and places millions of nano-bombs into the pots of horse meat stew the Russian soldiers are being fed. Once Russia makes a move of aggression, all 100k Russian soldiers are detonated from the inside.

[Trey3216 15346]

9 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

That is what I thought but it isnt true.  The alpha guys who like to shoot stuff go onto other places or go private.  Secret service is quite the opposite of what they want to do.  If a secret service agent ever fires a shot in anger they have already failed their job.

I personally know about 6 or 7 Secret Service agents that have been or are on Presidential/VP detail.  All but 1 of them were special forces and the other one was in the Army as well.   

[956 Worldwide 34705]

A Duma committee has pushed two drafts resolutions through— both urging Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.  One bill (Communists) calls for immediate recognition and the second (United Russia) calls for Putin to first consult with his Foreign and Defense Ministry. The whole Duma will meet tomorrow to consider both. 
 

My guess- regardless of which passes- is that this will be the spark for a “provocation”, allegedly from Ukraine, that triggers the war plans. 

[Parliament 14255]

How quickly will that all make it through to the endgame.

[atomheartbevo 89652]

3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

How big of a role do you think the shadow group that Putin runs  the Wagner group is playing in this entire thing?  I keep hearing rumors about this guy's like the ate some sort of bogeyman but that's all.

The Wagner Group does not do well against US Marines and US Army Special Forces.  And the US Air Force.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Wagner Group does not do well against US Marines and US Army Special Forces.  And the US Air Force.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

Hell... of course not.  Look at the name.. The Waaaaaaagner group.   Not veeeeeery mencaing....

[956 Worldwide 34705]

So Putin had meetings with DefMin Shoigu and ForMin Lavrov today.  Shoigu told him that some drills had ended and more were to end soon.  Lavrov told him that he "still sees a chance" to reach consensus with the west and "urged" a continued diplomatic path.  There is some reason to be optimistic that Putin is going to decide to climb down.  

There is another reading-- and it's linked with the Donbas/Luhansk question above.  Putin can now claim to have wanted to take the path of reason and dialogue with the West but-- then those perfidious Ukrainians might overreact, leaving him no choice.  I think the OSCE meeting, if Russia takes it, will be telling. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

How big of a role do you think the shadow group that Putin runs  the Wagner group is playing in this entire thing?  I keep hearing rumors about this guy's like the ate some sort of bogeyman but that's all.

I honestly don't know a ton about them, beyond what @atomheartbevo linked above and that they are all over the place in Mali at the moment and that Africa in general has a ton of them. But I have read that the Donbass People's Republics are crawling with them at the moment and that they had a ton to do with current organization of the existing LDPR structure. I think it is pretty much assured they are going to be very involved with any direct action between the Ukrainian military and the separatists. 

[Bevo 13576]

41 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Wagner Group does not do well against US Marines and US Army Special Forces.  And the US Air Force.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

Can you paste the article?

[Shady Ray 1633]

Zelensky clearly irritated in his presser with Scholz, as Scholz (nor anyone else, apparently) won't answer him about what sanctions are on the table. And Germany making sure to point it out in front of the cameras how much money is coming from Berlin.

 

Translation from the live ticker in Germany's Focus magazine:

 

Zelenskyi on Russia sanctions: "Not only the chancellor did not answer the question"
 
3:26 p.m.: Keyword arms delivery to Ukraine. "You know German legislation on arms exports," says Scholz. Requests are constantly being re-examined and are also currently being examined. However, I would like to emphasize once again: The Federal Republic is the largest donor financially.
3:21 p.m.: Scholz again speaks of "far-reaching sanctions" without specifying them.
3:20 p.m.: A catalogue of sanctions is being prepared, says Scholz. But you are able to act at any time. We are able to make the necessary decisions every day. [...] No one should doubt the determination and preparedness of the EU and NATO."
3:17 p.m.: "I don't know what sanctions are being used," says Zelenskyj. It was not only the Chancellor who did not answer the question. I have asked the question to heads of government several times and I have not received an answer - unfortunately, says Zelenskyj.
3:03 p.m.: Now Chancellor Scholz speaks. "One message is very important to me: Germany is very close to your side," he begins. No country has supported Ukraine more financially in recent years than the Federal Republic. More than two billion euros have already been given. Furthermore, the country receives 150 million euros as a new untied financial loan, and 150 million are available from an existing loan that has not yet flown out.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-bundeskanzler-scholz-reist-nach-kiew_id_52139887.html

[956 Worldwide 34705]

53 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Wagner Group does not do well against US Marines and US Army Special Forces.  And the US Air Force.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

I don't believe the Wagner Group exists, as an actual private military corporation with paid mercenaries.  Think about Putin--- does anyone believe he would allow a highly trained private military force to be created and exist on the territory of the Russian Federation?  I think the Wagner Group is simply an arm of the Ministry of Defense, which is fully answerable to state structures.  Prigozhin is likely getting some sort of a cut for serving as the "contractor" for them, but he has no operational control.  The existence of the group allows for deniability and distance, as well as for the group to engage in things that even the Russia military would not do publicly.  They are only mercenaries in the sense that the Kremlin doesn't admit funding them, but the funding, training, orders, and equipment all come from Russian state coffers.