Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[FartingMonk 3603]

23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It is not just embassies. World Bank pulling staff now. 

Shutting down an embassy is not as simple as closing the door and locking it behind you. 

Here is our statement. 

https://www.state.gov/operations-at-u-s-embassy-kyiv/

It's not every day that the state department let's you go office space with their embassy equipment.  Then a little bit of Enron

[Trey3216 15298]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Are Russians pretty punctual with their war promises or is that only a German thing

I guess that makes Japan the Premature Ejaculation of war promises???  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bulgaria had 9 million folks 30 years ago, and are down to 7 million.  They need some help.

A lot of the East European countries seem to be having demographic issues.  I'm surprised Russia isn't pumping out more kids.

Have you seen what some of those Russian babushkas, and dudes look like ?

[staboner 4938]

3 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Siap

This point makes sense to me. So what gives?

this post by 956 has a good point on that in it 

basically a large build up everywhere can help obfuscate what the real plan is

[staboner 4938]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

alright time to start the game thread

[MonkeyDoughnut 9944]

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

US media and intelligence have a lot on the line if this ends up being a nothing burger and all hype from our side

Nothing to lose. It's either - see we told you or luckily our American negotiating skills and sanctions have convinced Putin to stand down. Either way they get what they want.

[staboner 4938]

1 hour ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

Dated a chica from St. Pete a long time ago. She definitely tried. 
Best damn piroshki I’ve ever had. 
And I’m referring to the ones that have potatoes, ground beef, cheese or cabbage in them… you magnificent bastards. 

pics aren't coming in man. 

wait. i thought the beef ones was just ground beef and not roast beef. my god what are you talking about man!?

CSBrolert: once me and a homie were in a bar in st peter. there was a girl on a table dancing and I was like shit lets go there. music just loud as fuck. like 11pm. just got in from flight from US that night. my swarthy dark skinned friend went to order round 2 and the bartender put a machine gun on the bar, ignored my friend and kept doing shots and drinking from the bottle.

we just left and blamed it on the jetlag. >end CSB 

ive only been to russia once and I later was told the early 2000s were cray cray. i am sure from the 90s to now one can say the same 

[Brisketexan 103162]

36 minutes ago, staboner said:

alright time to start the game thread

Is this where we say General Zolotov should starts?

[atomheartbevo 88751]

1 hour ago, staboner said:

alright time to start the game thread

54 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Is this where we say General Zolotov should starts?

[atomheartbevo 88751]

This is some "WOLVERINES" looking imagery.

 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

2 hours ago, staboner said:

we just left and blamed it on the jetlag. >end CSB

If you’re ever in DC, go to Mari Vanna.

1. Go during happy hour. Everything on the menu is legit, but I usually dig on the piroshki. 
2. Drink Russian standard backed with Mors. 
3. Do that for a few hours and take in the scene. If it’s a Wednesday go up to the 3rd floor about 10:30-11… Russian karaoke. it’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

4. Profit (and thank me later).
 

There’s one in NYC, Moscow and St. Pete too. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[Telegraph_it 3350]

Seems ominous if filmed today and near Ukraine. It is 03:27 over there right now.

 

 

 

 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

4 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Seems ominous if filmed today and near Ukraine. It is 03:27 over there right now.

 

 

Username definitely checks out 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

Props to the Ukraine Defense Intelligence agency.    Music shoulda been "Ridin'" or whatever it is.

 

[Telegraph_it 3350]

2 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

Username definitely checks out 

😉

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19194]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Props to the Ukraine Defense Intelligence agency.    Music shoulda been "Ridin'" or whatever it is.

 

I hope those Javelin teams have some Stinger teams covering their 6. If not, they will get to fire about 1 missile each before the choppers get them. 

[FartingMonk 3603]

7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I hope those Javelin teams have some Stinger teams covering their 6. If not, they will get to fire about 1 missile each before the choppers get them. 

Not if they get to the choppah first

[atomheartbevo 88751]

21 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I hope those Javelin teams have some Stinger teams covering their 6. If not, they will get to fire about 1 missile each before the choppers get them. 

14 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Not if they get to the choppah first

Don't have to take out many helicopters before they start getting really skittish.  And I'd imagine that the helicopters would be even more juicy targets for Ukrainians.

 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

16 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Not if they get to the choppah first

Obligatory 

[bolverk 28890]

‘We Need to Oppose Russia’: Ukrainians Find Common Purpose
A trip along the Dnieper River explores what it means to be Ukrainian at a moment of extreme peril, as the country debates Russia’s place in its past, and its future.

Ice fishing on the Dnieper River. Ukrainians have undergone a profound shift in identity since first being invaded in 2014.

By Michael Schwirtz Photographs by Brendan Hoffman
Feb. 14, 2022
Updated 3:24 p.m. ET

ALONG THE DNIEPER RIVER, Ukraine — Fishing on a marbled expanse of frozen river, dressed head to toe in camouflage, Viktor Berkut looked very much the Soviet-born Everyman, and has the biography to match. He joined the Red Army in 1970 and spent three decades building air defense and rocket systems directed against Moscow’s ideological enemies in the West.

But the enemy has changed, and for that Mr. Berkut blames President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. With roughly 130,000 Russian troops now threatening his native Ukraine, the 71-year-old pensioner says any connection he once felt to Russia is gone: Ukraine should join NATO, he said, and put up bloody resistance should Mr. Putin order an attack.

“I never thought like this,” Mr. Berkut said mournfully, as he plunked a Day-Glo lure through a hole in the ice of the Dnieper River near the city of Cherkasy. “I lived all right in the Soviet Union. But now I’ve begun to understand.”

“We need to oppose Russia,” he added. “We have chosen, not a Russian path, but a European one.”

His sentiments underscore a profound shift that Ukrainians have undergone in the eight years since Russia first invaded and snatched away parts of their country. A people long divided by profound disputes over what language to speak, what church to follow and what historical heroes to revere has begun to stitch together a sense of common purpose in the face of a menacing foe.

Mr. Putin has made clear that he views Ukrainians and Russians as “one people,” divided by malign Western forces — a historical injustice he says he is determined to fix. This has driven many Ukrainians to sometimes dramatic declarations of separation. People who grew up in Russian-speaking homes now choose to speak Ukrainian exclusively, and in some cases have refused to teach the language of their parents to their children.

Across the country, Lenin statues and hammer-and-sickle emblems of the Soviet past have been toppled, replaced by monuments to Ukrainians killed in a 2014 uprising that drove a Moscow-backed government from Kyiv.  After four centuries of subservience to Moscow patriarchs, Ukraine’s Orthodox Church formally split with the Russian church in 2019.

Spoiler

The Dnieper River waterfront in Kherson, Ukraine. Ukrainians, long divided by disputes over language and religion, among other things, are finding a common purpose in the face of a menacing foe.

A monument in Cherkasy. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has made clear that he views Ukrainians and Russians as “one people.” 

Russia remains a dominating political and cultural force in Ukraine: its rappers and Tik-Tokers are popular even among young people who increasingly take their cultural cues from the West. In the Eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, where Ukraine is fighting Russian-backed separatists, many Ukrainians still feel a strong kinship with the Russians living just over the border.  And across Ukraine, a raucous public reckoning over Russia’s place in the country’s past, and its future, is unresolved.

Amid warnings from the West that Russia could attack any day, the photographer Brendan Hoffman and I set off on a journey to explore what it means to be a Ukrainian at this moment of national peril. For 560 miles, we followed the Dnieper, a sickle-shaped river that stretches the length of Ukraine, physically separating the country’s western regions from the lands to the east, long considered to be more susceptible to Moscow’s gravitational pull.

Traveling along the river today, those divisions, while not gone completely, are less visible, outshone in many ways by a sense of common struggle.

Kyiv: A changing sense of identity

We began our journey in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, where the Dnieper River flows past the golden domes of an 11th-century monastery and a 200-foot steel statue of a woman holding a sword and shield built to memorialize the Soviet victory in World War II.

But Kyiv’s most revered monument is of a much newer vintage. At the top of a hill, a short distance from Independence Square, or Maidan, sits a small memorial of black steel and granite plaques engraved with the spectral faces of protesters, known as the Heavenly Hundred, who were gunned down over several days in 2014 in an uprising Ukrainians call the Revolution of Dignity.

The revolt prompted Mr. Putin — concerned that Ukraine was moving irrevocably toward the West — to order the annexation of Crimea and instigate a separatist war in eastern Ukraine.

A woman paying her respects in Kyiv at a memorial to those killed during the 2014 protests that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych.

The memorial is made up of granite plaques engraved with the faces of protesters, known as the Heavenly Hundred, who were gunned down during the 2014 protests.

It also changed the way many Ukrainians see themselves. In a poll taken in 2001, only about half the country supported Ukraine’s declaration of independence from the Soviet Union a decade earlier. A 2021 poll found that number had risen to 80 percent, with nearly half the country in support of NATO membership.

“Ukraine as a nation was born on Maidan in 2014,” said Yevhen Hlibovytsky, a professor and public opinion pollster in Kyiv. “That’s the point when the conflict became unbearable for Putin.”

For many Ukrainians, the memorial to the Heavenly Hundred has become a site of pilgrimage. Parents of the dead visit it on their children’s birthdays and politicians come for photo ops.

Similar memorials can be found in almost every city and town. But Kyiv is where they died, many within sight of the memorial that now bears their likenesses.

Cherkasy: Debate over the primacy of language
About three hours downriver from Kyiv is the city of Cherkasy, scattered with memorials to veterans of a century of war. At the regional museum, in an exhibition on the 2014 uprising, is a photograph of a local photographer named Garry Efimov, his hair wet with blood after an encounter with riot police.

The experience was so traumatic, Mr. Efimov said, that he stopped speaking his native Russian and instead now speaks only in Ukrainian.

“It is difficult actually, when you always read Russian books and literature, Bulgakov, Tolstoy, Dostoyevsky,” he said in an interview at his art nouveau studio. “But I succeeded, and now it is harder to speak in Russian than Ukrainian.”

Though most Ukrainians speak or at least understand both Russian and Ukrainian, debates over the primacy of one language are among the most contentious within Ukraine — and also between Ukraine and Russia. Last year, a new law took effect requiring anyone working in customer service, whether waiters or bank tellers, to start any interaction with Ukrainian.

There are also strict quotas on the amount of Russian-language programming permitted on Ukrainian TV and radio.

A monument to people killed during the Maidan protests and the war in the east in Cherkasy.

Aleksandr Yaryomenko and Natalia Polishchuk own a store in Cherkasy that sells traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirts called vyshyvanky.

Mr. Putin has described efforts to limit Russian in Ukraine as “genocide,” and has justified Russia’s annexation of Crimea in part by asserting the need to protect Russian speakers there.

While there are hard-liners in Ukraine on both sides of the debate, many more are like Natalia Polishchuk and Aleksandr Yaryomenko, who own a store in Cherkasy selling traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirts called vyshyvanky.

“In the store we speak Ukrainian, but between us we speak Russian,” said Ms. Polishchuk, who is 51. “We lived in the Soviet Union, we’re of an age, you understand.”

But that does not mean they are any less patriotic, said Mr. Yaryomenko, who is 60.

“If someone took over your kitchen and started frying cutlets there — they took Crimea and a piece of Donbas — what would you do, pat them on the head?” he said. “We need to support our homeland, our Ukraine.”

Dnipro: No more steel sales to Russia
Even far from the front lines, it is difficult to avoid reminders of war. In Dnipro, a city of one million people five hours farther downriver, an entire square has been turned into a life-size diorama. It features armored personnel carriers, a tank turret and other artifacts from a fierce battle in the east in which a handful of Ukrainian soldiers, known as the Cyborgs, held off a siege by Russian-backed separatists that ended in early 2015 after 242 days.

Nearby, at a hospital for veterans, Aleksandr Segeda, a retired sergeant, who was born in Russia, but fought against the separatists in the east, needs no reminders of the war.

“You greet someone in the morning, and by lunch you hear that he’s no longer alive and he’s 22 years old and has pregnant wife and a small child,” Mr. Segeda said, drifting through a memory. “Forgetting that is impossible. And so is forgiving.”

The Dnipropetrovsk Hospital for Veterans in Dnipro.

Interpipe Steel, which once sent wheels for railroad cars to Russia, no longer exports there.

Others are trying to look toward the future, even as the threat of a new war looms.

Economic ties between Ukraine and Russia were once so strong that when a state-of-the-art steel plant opened across the river in 2012, Valery Gergiev, the conductor of St. Petersburg’s Mariinsky Theater and close friend of Mr. Putin, gave a concert to mark the occasion.

In the two years before war broke out, Russia accounted for nearly half the factory’s sales of wheels for railroad cars and nearly a quarter of its sales of steel piping. Now the factory, Interpipe Steel, sells nothing to Russia.

Interpipe was forced to make huge investments to increase the quality of its products to meet the higher standards for export to Europe and North America, even while some of its employees left to join the fight in the east, said its spokeswoman, Svetlana Manko. Sales have not yet reached prewar levels, but they’re climbing steadily, she said.

“I think this trauma has nudged all Ukrainian businesses to find ways to develop,” she said.

Zaporizhzhya: Reviving Cossack martial arts
A short drive further south through fallow gray-brown sunflower fields took us to Zaporizhzhya, the heartland of what was once an independent settlement of Cossacks.

At a drafty gym on the city’s industrial outskirts, a group of young boys and girls dressed in baggy red Cossack pants were practicing fending off saber blows and body slamming one another, while one boy honed his technique with a whip. They were learning a Ukrainian form of martial arts called ‘spas,’ a tradition that had largely fallen out of favor during the Soviet era, their teacher, Yaroslav Pavlenko, explained. In the years since the war began, he  said, there has been a concerted effort to revive it.

Students in Zaporizhzhya training in traditional Cossack fighting skills.

The fighting form of the Cossacks has seen a revival in the last few years.

“Now that there is open aggression being committed against Ukraine, people’s minds are changing,” Mr. Yaroslav said, adding that “patriotism is now welcomed.”

Even while learning to fight, Mr. Pavlenko’s wife, Oksana, said, the children are shielded from news about the buildup of Russian troops. She avoids the news, herself, when she can.

“The last time I watched the news I had two desires,” she said. “The first was to run out to the store and buy supplies of buckwheat and sugar. And the second was to grab all my documents and leave the country.”

“Of course, logically I’m not prepared to do that,” she added.

Kherson: Independence for Ukrainian church
It was dark by the time we reached Kherson, the last large city along the Dnieper before it flows into the Black Sea. But the yellow facade of the Dormition Cathedral was brilliantly lit, and the sounds of a choir echoed from within.

Inside, a troika of priests in marigold-colored mantles intoned prayers in a deep baritone.

In 2019, the Ukrainian Orthodox church was granted independence after 400 years of subordination to the patriarch of Moscow.

The Dormition Cathedral after a church service on Sunday.

Kherson is the last large city along the Dnieper before it flows into the Black Sea.

For many Ukrainians it was another victory in the drive to separate fully from Moscow’s influence. Parishes across Ukraine rushed to change their allegiances, though not all.

The Dormition Cathedral in Kherson remains loyal to Moscow, and some of its parishioners view Russia as a more benign force than many of their compatriots.

“For all of our existence dark forces have been trying to divide us,” said Lyudmila Ivanovna, who would only give her name and patronymic.

She was sympathetic to Russia’s intervention in eastern Ukraine, which she said had historically been one of the richest regions in the Russian Empire. Why should she have to speak a new language or go to a new church, she asked, “if we were all sent here by the same God.”

As we parted after the evening service, she assured me that she had nothing against Ukrainians from the west, who might hold different views.

“My husband is from western Ukraine,” she said. “It’s true, we divorced, but never mind.”

 

[WBT 20132]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Props to the Ukraine Defense Intelligence agency.    Music shoulda been "Ridin'" or whatever it is.

 

Needs Rocky carrying logs at the end

[bolverk 28890]

US embassy relocated

 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

['stache 21493]

7 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Waiting until after Olympics.  Trying to help salvage what little ratings they have left

They need those 'roids back to get their soldiers all ragey too.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8781]

US embassy relocated
 

why are we tweeting what we’re doing and where we’re going?

[FartingMonk 3603]

10 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

why are we tweeting what we’re doing and where we’re going?

Because they want the diplomats on the ground and the US embassy is afforded protection under international law.  If they are dumb enough to attack it then they might as well get ready to get the full might of the US military.

 

Although we did "accidentally" drop a bomb and level the Russian embassy during the Serbian excursion.

[Shady Ray 1633]

In light of Scholz's meeting with Putin in Moscow today, I'm curious if he will come with some type of "hail mary" push towards some type of formalized moratorium on Ukrainian accession to NATO. Obviously, even without the current situation, they wouldn't even be considered any time soon, but there have definitely been media pieces playing this up a lot more in the past couple of days.

 

Quote

 

Scholz, Zelenskiy play down talk of NATO membership for Ukraine
German chancellor and Ukrainian president send signal to Moscow amid warnings of war.

KYIV — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sought Monday to tamp down tension with Russia by suggesting that NATO membership for Ukraine was not on their agenda.
 

At a press conference in Kyiv, Scholz and Zelenskiy played down the likelihood of Ukraine joining the military alliance in the foreseeable future. With more than 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine’s border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that any further NATO expansion to the east would be “unacceptable” and demanded “security guarantees” for Moscow.
 

“The question of [Ukrainian] membership in alliances is practically not on the agenda,” Scholz said at the press conference, which followed a two-hour meeting between the leaders.
 

“And that is why it is strange to observe that the Russian government is making something that is practically not on the agenda the subject of major political problems,” Scholz added. “That is the great challenge that we actually face: That something that is not even on the agenda is being made an issue.”
 

While Scholz stressed that each country should be able to make decisions on which alliances to join, he said it was important to “look at the reality” and seek to de-escalate tensions, just days after the U.S. warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.
 

Zelenskiy said NATO membership was a remote “dream.” Though he stressed that Ukraine was still keen to join the military alliance, Zelenskiy also acknowledged that the call was ultimately not up to Kyiv.
 

The Ukrainian president also said that “the future of the European security architecture will be decided in Ukraine,” and added that his government was ready to discuss “guarantees” that could be included in this architecture to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
 

While Scholz stressed that the West was ready to hit Russia with “very far-reaching and effective sanctions” should it launch a fresh attack on Ukraine, he said he still hoped that peace talks could lead to a solution.
 

On that note, Scholz praised Zelenskiy for assuring him that Ukraine’s government would present “the relevant draft laws that we need for the continuation of the Minsk process,” a yet-to-be-implemented agreement to establish peace in eastern Ukraine, where a military conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces has been ongoing since 2014.
 

Russia has accused Ukraine of not undertaking the necessary steps that could lead to a resolution of the conflict, such as elections in the disputed regions.
 

“This is a good process, which will help to ensure that there can be no pretexts [by Russia] in the necessary strategy for getting out of the situation that is now in a deadlock,” Scholz said. “Ukraine is making a very important contribution here, and I am very grateful for it.”
 

Scholz, who has been accused by critics at home and abroad of not doing enough to help Ukraine, also stressed that “no country has supported Ukraine more financially in the past eight years than Germany.” He added that Berlin would further support the country’s economy, which has suffered from the ongoing conflict and the threat of an invasion. This would take the form of an accelerated payout of a €150 million loan, as well as the provision of another loan of the same amount, he said.
 

Scholz will travel Tuesday to Moscow to meet Putin.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-nato-membership-not-on-the-agenda-says-scholz/

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

And late last night from one of the big German periodicals, Focus:

 

...
NATO moratorium could be a compromise solution

Meanwhile, Putin has increased the pressure to such an extent that his goal of publicly preventing Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO once and for all is suddenly within reach. While this was completely ruled out just a few weeks ago, there are now initial considerations among Western allies on how to accommodate the Russians (at least provisionally).

This compromise will certainly have been the subject of the talks between Zelensky and Scholz. Ukraine would now have to bring it into play. NATO could thus preserve its "open door policy". But how realistic is this scenario? 

In response to the corresponding question of a journalist in the press conference, the Ukrainian president only replied: "That was not on the agenda." Instead, Zelensky noticeably often mentions that he wants EU membership for Ukraine. This afternoon, the ambivalent situation in which the president finds himself becomes more than clear.

On the one hand, he knows that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO in the near future. There is no point invoking war for something that will not happen anyway - actually. On the other hand, Zelensky is under enormous domestic political pressure. He cannot afford to publicly agree to such a moratorium.

An offer to Putin

However, Zelensky and Scholz can offer the Russians something else this Monday: Ukrainian compliance with the Minsk Agreement.

Anyone who remembers the press conference of Foreign Minister Baerbock and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will also remember that Lavrov complained there: Ukraine would not comply with the Minsk Agreement. If it were now possible to get the laws promised there in Kiev, this would be a concession that the Russians could not reject.

On the return flight to Berlin, Scholz comes to the accompanying journalists at several thousand meters altitude on so-called background. Conversations like this are strictly confidential. But it is clear: Scholz seems relaxed and even makes a few anecdotes. The chancellor gives the impression that he has achieved today what he wanted to achieve. Tomorrow it will become clear whether Putin sees it the same way.

https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/kann-er-damit-den-krieg-verhindern-scholz-verlaesst-ukraine-mit-einem-signal-an-putin_id_53610232.html

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

And a new day, a new round of tilting at windmills with Ambassador extraordinaire, Andriy Melnyk. This time "demanding" that Olaf - the world's meekest man - "bang his fist and perhaps also his shoe" on the infamous long table at the Kremlin and that Germany shut down NS2 publicly and "forever and ever." I completely understand that it is an unbearably dire situation for Ukraine, but ambassadors should be able to come across in ways beyond just "unhinged". That's kind of part of the job.

 

But I do wonder if he realizes that no one in Germany cares what he has to say anymore...it's almost like a Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany invoking its National Socialist history for months on a regular basis tends to erode ones ability to influence public opinion in times of crisis.

 

Quote

Ukrainian ambassador demands "clear ultimatum" from Scholz to Putin
The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany demands that Chancellor Olaf Scholz "not only bang his fist, but perhaps also his shoe on the infamous long table in the Kremlin."
 

Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk has demanded a tough stance from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) during his visit to Moscow this Tuesday. "Only a clear ultimatum to Mr. Putin with a deadline to recall his hordes armed to the teeth no later than Feb. 16 can still save world peace," Melnyk told the Funke Mediengruppe newspapers (Tuesday). "If the Kremlin chief ignores this very last warning, extremely painful preventive sanctions against Russia would have to be introduced gradually and step by step the very next day."
 

Chancellor Scholz will meet Russia's President Vladimir Putin for the first time this Tuesday for a long one-on-one discussion. Scholz had already stated during his visit to Kiev on Monday that he wanted to lobby Putin for a de-escalation in the crisis. He said the deployment of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers along the Ukrainian border was "incomprehensible." At the same time, he again warned Russia against an invasion of Ukraine and stressed that the EU and the U.S. had prepared responses for this eventuality.
 

Melnyk said the punitive economic measures should include a total import embargo of oil, - gas and coal products and other strategic raw materials as well as freezing Russian state assets abroad - including bank accounts - a complete ban on investment in Russia and extensive personal sanctions against Russian leaders and oligarchs. "All cards must finally be on the table. Also, the final shutdown of Nord Stream 2 should not only be publicly affirmed, but actually politically decided and legally implemented forever and ever," Melnyk said. "We expect Chancellor Olaf Scholz - in his elegant Hanseatic way - to bang not only his fist, but perhaps also his shoe - if need be - on the infamous long table in the Kremlin to bring Mr. Putin to his senses and bury his insane plans of conquest."
 

The additional 150 million euros in German loan guarantees are "a good step forward," the ambassador said. But this was not enough, he added. On Monday, Scholz had promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the accelerated disbursement of 150 million euros from a loan already granted, as well as a new loan of 150 million euros.
 

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article236909881/Ukraine-Botschafter-fordert-von-Scholz-klipp-und-klares-Ultimatum-an-Putin.html

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Zepol87 9015]

4 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

Seems ominous if filmed today and near Ukraine. It is 03:27 over there right now.

 

 

 

 

The city I lived in outside of Monterrey had no local police because they were all part of the narcos and the Mexican military took over. Humvees and other shit patrolling my neighborhood was crazy to me. Seeing this rolling through would be fucking nuts. I think I had a point when I hit reply but don't remember now 

[InkaUtexas 24826]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

Because they want the diplomats on the ground and the US embassy is afforded protection under international law.  If they are dumb enough to attack it then they might as well get ready to get the full might of the US military.

 

Although we did "accidentally" drop a bomb and level the Russian embassy during the Serbian excursion.

Chinese. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bombing_of_the_Chinese_embassy_in_Belgrade

Edited February 15, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[InkaUtexas 24826]

28 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

The city I lived in outside of Monterrey had no local police because they were all part of the narcos and the Mexican military took over. Humvees and other shit patrolling my neighborhood was crazy to me. Seeing this rolling through would be fucking nuts. I think I had a point when I hit reply but don't remember now 

Tracks destroy roads. You don't move tanks and heavy artillery (tracked) on roads unless you are doing some real shit. This is not what you would do during an exercise. 

There are unconfirmed reports of aircraft over Donbass. Add to that the positioning of helicopters and tactical bombers and no reason to move all that crap for an infantry exercise. 

So what does Putin want? Why spend all this cash? Train loads of equipment, 130+ K troops? 

[Zepol87 9015]

Flexing nuts is what I call it and it usually doesn't end well but I don't know anyone like Putin.

[956 Worldwide 33958]

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

why are we tweeting what we’re doing and where we’re going?

The first and primary mission of any embassy is the protection and assistance of U.S. citizens.  Emergency consular staff and a few unit heads are always the last to pull out.  The government has been telling Americans to gtfo for a while. The latest messaging tells Americans still in Ukraine to get themselves to Lviv if they need emergency services like a new passport, passport for a kid, consular birth record, etc. before they hightail it out. 

[InkaUtexas 24826]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The first and primary mission of any embassy is the protection and assistance of U.S. citizens.  Emergency consular staff and a few unit heads are always the last to pull out.  The government has been telling Americans to gtfo for a while. The latest messaging tells Americans still in Ukraine to get themselves to Lviv if they need emergency services like a new passport, passport for a kid, consular birth record, etc. before they hightail it out. 

Well and these guys. 

Serious, appreciate your insight. It is all not about cocktail parties and misinformation. 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

why are we tweeting what we’re doing and where we’re going?

We could not move our embassy and keep it a secret from the Russians, or really anybody for that matter these days, thanks to smart phones and social media.  

[InkaUtexas 24826]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We could not move our embassy and keep it a secret from the Russians, or really anybody for that matter these days, thanks to smart phones and social media.  

And if we did the Russians would know right away. They watch us like we watch them everywhere. Sure they have a few Vlad Jr's in the Ukraine. 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

46 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Tracks destroy roads. You don't move tanks and heavy artillery (tracked) on roads unless you are doing some real shit. This is not what you would do during an exercise. 

Yep.  I don’t know the weight of an Abrams, but I know our Paladins we’re over 60,000 pounds and when they had them out for exercises, etc., shit was carefully planned as far as where they would go, and how many miles were put on them, etc., but that was peacetime.  

But damn does the Army have commercials that make it look like you can take tracked vehicles all over the place at high speeds.   I did have a buddy who was in tanks and was stationed in Germany (this was in the early 90s) and he said they had a few time and a few places where they could “cut loose”, but it was rare because the Fulda Gap lost its importance. 

46 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So what does Putin want? Why spend all this cash? Train loads of equipment, 130+ K troops? 

Million dollar question.  I still don’t see how those small territories are worth the risk.  

I know he believes Ukraine and Russia are basically one and the same! but if he does this, he justifies (and strengthens) NATO’s existence, and could create a smaller Ukraine that formally washes its hands of the territory Russia wants and joins NATO.  If he carves out those territories for Russia that they are angling for, the remaining part of Ukraine is going to be extremely anti-Russia and itching to join NATO ASAP.

I’m now leaning towards it not happening and he’s going to get concessions from Ukraine on NATO.

But he’s sure acting like it, and if he wants to, he’s got to soon, because lots of wheeled supply and fuel vehicles in the mud will be a clusterfuck.

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Good stuff in this thread from the dude that Inka recommended. Will be interesting to see whether these are re-routed or sent back to permanent bases. I would say this movement is one of the better predictors we have at this exact moment.

 

 

[Trey3216 15298]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep.  I don’t know the weight of an Abrams, but I know our Paladins we’re over 60,000 pounds and when they had them out for exercises, etc., shit was carefully planned as far as where they would go, and how many miles were put on them, etc., but that was peacetime.  

But damn does the Army have commercials that make it look like you can take tracked vehicles all over the place at high speeds.   I did have a buddy who was in tanks and was stationed in Germany (this was in the early 90s) and he said they had a few time and a few places where they could “cut loose”, but it was rare because the Fulda Gap lost its importance. 

Million dollar question.  I still don’t see how those small territories are worth the risk.  

I know he believes Ukraine and Russia are basically one and the same! but if he does this, he justifies (and strengthens) NATO’s existence, and could create a smaller Ukraine that formally washes its hands of the territory Russia wants and joins NATO.  If he carves out those territories for Russia that they are angling for, the remaining part of Ukraine is going to be extremely anti-Russia and itching to join NATO ASAP.

I’m now leaning towards it not happening and he’s going to get concessions from Ukraine on NATO.

But he’s sure acting like it, and if he wants to, he’s got to soon, because lots of wheeled supply and fuel vehicles in the mud will be a clusterfuck.

 

I hope he FaFO’s and local Ukrainian farmers light that shit on fire 

[InkaUtexas 24826]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep.  I don’t know the weight of an Abrams, but I know our Paladins we’re over 60,000 pounds and when they had them out for exercises, etc., shit was carefully planned as far as where they would go, and how many miles were put on them, etc., but that was peacetime.  

But damn does the Army have commercials that make it look like you can take tracked vehicles all over the place at high speeds.   I did have a buddy who was in tanks and was stationed in Germany (this was in the early 90s) and he said they had a few time and a few places where they could “cut loose”, but it was rare because the Fulda Gap lost its importance. 

Million dollar question.  I still don’t see how those small territories are worth the risk.  

I know he believes Ukraine and Russia are basically one and the same! but if he does this, he justifies (and strengthens) NATO’s existence, and could create a smaller Ukraine that formally washes its hands of the territory Russia wants and joins NATO.  If he carves out those territories for Russia that they are angling for, the remaining part of Ukraine is going to be extremely anti-Russia and itching to join NATO ASAP.

I’m now leaning towards it not happening and he’s going to get concessions from Ukraine on NATO.

But he’s sure acting like it, and if he wants to, he’s got to soon, because lots of wheeled supply and fuel vehicles in the mud will be a clusterfuck.

 

hahaha, one of the best pictures I took was in 1996 in Bosnia at a bridge crossing. Like we have deer crossing signs here there it was Tank crossing. I have seen what M-1's and Leopards can do to roads. It is not nice. There is a reason we pay for twice the gas and carry them on trucks. 

I think he goes in, limited, and thus forces concessions. Creates his land bridge to the Crimea. Perhaps tries to landlocked the Ukraine, but won't storm Kiev (have we agreed on the spelling?? Creates a smaller adversary, gains points at home for uniting the Russian People, and shows the people that the military does listen, is powerful and loyal to him.

 Agree this strengthens NATO, but does Vlad give a fuck? I read somewhere he sees Russia like Catherine did. His fiefdom to grow and expand. The issue is if he pulls this off he goes for the Baltic States and they are NATO. 

[InkaUtexas 24826]

2 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Good stuff in this thread from the dude that Inka recommended. Will be interesting to see whether these are re-routed or sent back to permanent bases. I would say this movement is one of the better predictors we have at this exact moment.

 

 

Shit can be moved as tactics change. The big one for me is the movement of helicopters and light bombers into the southern region and Crimea. That takes forward placement of fuel, supplies and support personnel. I know we got some pilots on her so they can chime in better than me, but maintenance on a MI-8 requires people.

Also, these are not areas within the exercise AOR so makes no sense. 

[956 Worldwide 33958]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Shit can be moved as tactics change. The big one for me is the movement of helicopters and light bombers into the southern region and Crimea. That takes forward placement of fuel, supplies and support personnel. I know we got some pilots on her so they can chime in better than me, but maintenance on a MI-8 requires people.

Also, these are not areas within the exercise AOR so makes no sense. 

Also more field hospitals arriving to Belgorod. Whitewashed camo appearing on the units getting moved closer to Ukraine. Lots of units getting moved to staging areas closer to the order and placed into battle order. 

 

Scholz is arriving as all signs point to more escalation and not less. It’s worth remembering that the Soviets negotiated with Budapest as the tanks rolled in.  If Putin has decided to go to war, it’s not like the rupture with the West is going to be any worse just because he kept going through the motions till the last minute. 

[956 Worldwide 33958]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

hahaha, one of the best pictures I took was in 1996 in Bosnia at a bridge crossing. Like we have deer crossing signs here there it was Tank crossing. I have seen what M-1's and Leopards can do to roads. It is not nice. There is a reason we pay for twice the gas and carry them on trucks. 

I think he goes in, limited, and thus forces concessions. Creates his land bridge to the Crimea. Perhaps tries to landlocked the Ukraine, but won't storm Kiev (have we agreed on the spelling?? Creates a smaller adversary, gains points at home for uniting the Russian People, and shows the people that the military does listen, is powerful and loyal to him.

 Agree this strengthens NATO, but does Vlad give a fuck? I read somewhere he sees Russia like Catherine did. His fiefdom to grow and expand. The issue is if he pulls this off he goes for the Baltic States and they are NATO. 

Kyiv, Kyiv, Kyiv! Don’t bring that Russian spelling in here, Ivan! 

[InkaUtexas 24826]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Also more field hospitals arriving to Belgorod. Whitewashed camo appearing on the units getting moved closer to Ukraine. Lots of units getting moved to staging areas closer to the order and placed into battle order. 

 

Scholz is arriving as all signs point to more escalation and not less. It’s worth remembering that the Soviets negotiated with Budapest as the tanks rolled in.  If Putin has decided to go to war, it’s not like the rupture with the West is going to be any worse just because he kept going through the motions till the last minute. 

Did not see that about the hospitals. White wash is interesting. Equipment is moving towards the border and it is off the trains. That and aviation assets are the things I am watching. 

Agree he has little to lose and the Germans have shown their hand. Should we deploy the aggy Corps? I mean, they should be able to stand shoulder to shoulder with 79 year old grannies. 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Perhaps tries to landlocked the Ukraine, but won't storm Kiev (have we agreed on the spelling?? Creates a smaller adversary, gains points at home for uniting the Russian People, and shows the people that the military does listen, is powerful and loyal to him.

If he grabs territory, he’s going to be careful and try to minimize any insurgency.  Landlocking Ukraine puts a lot of his troops at constant risk of insurgents.  

17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 Agree this strengthens NATO, but does Vlad give a fuck? I read somewhere he sees Russia like Catherine did. His fiefdom to grow and expand. The issue is if he pulls this off he goes for the Baltic States and they are NATO. 

He won’t touch NATO countries at all.  Hell, he’s trying to keep Ukraine out of NATO partly because the though terrifies him.  If Ukraine were to cede the contested areas to Russia today, and redraw their borders to where they are in full control of their territory, unless he invades and destabilizes them again, they could join NATO.  

[InkaUtexas 24826]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he grabs territory, he’s going to be careful and try to minimize any insurgency.  Landlocking Ukraine puts a lot of his troops at constant risk of insurgents.  

He won’t touch NATO countries at all.  Hell, he’s trying to keep Ukraine out of NATO partly because the though terrifies him.  If Ukraine were to cede the contested areas to Russia today, and redraw their borders to where they are in full control of their territory, unless he invades and destabilizes them again, they could join NATO.  

If our allies are scared, due to their internal politics and needs of their people, he might gamble. Won't be soon, but why would he not try? Would we go to war for Estonia? 

I think he goes limited and then balks at bigger goals. But who the hell knows about this crazy Ivan! 

[52-80 18965]

3 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

why are we tweeting what we’re doing and where we’re going?

russia said what they're gonna do so we're just returning the courtesy

[Shady Ray 1633]

50 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think he goes in, limited, and thus forces concessions. Creates his land bridge to the Crimea. Perhaps tries to landlocked the Ukraine, but won't storm Kiev (have we agreed on the spelling?? Creates a smaller adversary, gains points at home for uniting the Russian People, and shows the people that the military does listen, is powerful and loyal to him.

Yeah, I think if he goes in, it is an incremental approach. Start off with a massive cyber attack, along with tactical air strikes on Ukrainian bases, logistics/transport centers, airfields, Azov Battalion positions, to disable the already weak Ukrainian air potential. And perhaps demonstrate Russian capabilities with respect to Electronic Warfare, which from what I understand is actually very high. They have been displaying some of this informally in Syria lately, and the Israelis have been complaining about it. Shoigu has had a hard-on for EW over the last decade and there are definitely schools of thought out there that believe that they have been saving a lot of these advancements for this precise conflict. EW in conjunction with targeted, precision hits on legitimate military targets  - if successful - could demonstrate to the Ukrainian’s that even the limited avenues for defense that they thought they had (Bayraktar drones, those dated guided systems from western allies, etc) are worthless. They would then pause, demand concessions alongside buy-in from western allies for real, genuine enforcement of any arrangements with Kiev (and I am going with K-I-E-V as I am crotchety and reluctant towards change) Kyiv. 
 

This - if limited to areas east of the Dnieper - would also leave the door open for the Germans and French to make the domestic argument that this was not an invasion in the sense that self-harming economic sanctions must be levied…but rather that it was a logical extension of the ongoing Donbass situation and that a “temporary” pause to things like NS2 is the maximum that is warranted. As an aside, I have noticed in the past three days that opposition leaders criticizing Scholz have moved away from “NS2 must die with an invasion” to “NS2 must be temporarily halted with an invasion.” Weaselly politicians, the lot of them. But if you asked the average German voter if they would trade the destruction of legitimate military targets, even with the unfortunate collateral damage that would come with that,  for this issue to go away for good, they’d jump at the idea in the privacy of their own minds. Of course, all the while this scenario is happening, you’d have god-knows-what going on with the People’s Republic militias and the Little Green Men. This is where the PR war would be very difficult for Russia, as whatever happens in Donetsk and Luhansk is going to be ugly.
 

Anyway, if that doesn’t produce a forced resolution, then they could move towards isolation of urban areas with significant pro-Russian contingents like Mariupol and Kharkiv, as well as the full on destruction of the Ukrainian airforce on the ground. It is one thing to destroy their air infrastructure, but another to start actually destroying their remaining Migs. That is a psychological escalation that would resonate with the populations. They could then use their Navy to block off the Black Sea coast, deepening Ukraine’s economic isolation. And then again, pause and demand concessions in exchange for cessation of hostilities.
 

This could proceed for another two steps or so, with strategic pauses between each, if limited to the east before even getting to the point where tanks needed to roll. As you said, there are plenty of Vlad Jrs. in Ukraine and with the Russian recon capabilities so focused on the East of Ukraine, they will be able to target all kinds of destruction on front line units from the sky, specifically around Donbass. And honestly, that is part of their goal anyway…those front-line units like Azov are in the crosshairs and even if opening strikes are limited for PR reasons, they will do everything they can to annihilate those elements of the Ukrainian forces and my guess is that they know very well where those particular units are and will deliberately destroy them. That would actually play really well at home, given Azov's reputation and history.
 

At this point, any of the above would not be seen as unreasonable in quiet, influential corners of Western European capitals; and it would certainly not be enough for a domestic politician to spite his own economy (and political future) by slapping iron-clad, permanent sanctions on Russia.
 

Once we moved beyond this, I still think that if tank column incursions were limited to southeastern Ukraine in the areas around the Donbass, stretching down the Black Sea to Kherson, there would still be an element of Western European society which sees this as “rationally related” to the existing conflict, particularly as most people here really don't even see the Crimean annexation as unreasonable. It's kind of an attitude of "well, if Crimea is part of Russia, there is historical reasoning for it...and if it's part of Ukraine, there's also reasoning for it. Let us not waste our time or thougts caring about it or the immediate areas around it." But if things moved beyond that to a full-on shelling of urban centers like they did in Syria or Chechnya, then you’d be much more likely to permanent wide-spread buy-in for hard, permanent sanctions. But there is a long way between the first situation above and Kiev as Aleppo or Grozny.

 

But I have no military experience and am not nearly as well-versed on actual military shit like you guys are, so I could just be talking out of my ass. It has been known to happen before.

 

Edited to change to Kyiv, as 956 set me straight.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He won’t touch NATO countries at all.  Hell, he’s trying to keep Ukraine out of NATO partly because the though terrifies him.  If Ukraine were to cede the contested areas to Russia today, and redraw their borders to where they are in full control of their territory, unless he invades and destabilizes them again, they could join NATO.  

Totally agree with this. I don't think there would be near the hesitancy to support collective NATO action against Russia if he touched NATO countries in places that have, to date, been reluctant to get involved, mainly Germany. 

It isn't like the Germans would enjoy it, but there is enough rationality here for the argument of "Putin wants to reassemble the USSR" (which is basically dismissed here as over-simplistic hype) to all of a sudden become very real if the Baltics were touched. He would lose the valuable leverage that he has within the EU, specifically a sympathetic and indifferent Germany and France, by doing something so expansive as that.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray