Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Shady Ray 1633]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Scholz is arriving as all signs point to more escalation and not less. It’s worth remembering that the Soviets negotiated with Budapest as the tanks rolled in.  If Putin has decided to go to war, it’s not like the rupture with the West is going to be any worse just because he kept going through the motions till the last minute. 

True. I cannot imagine him starting anything with Scholz there, but after that I think any time is possible. Putin has such a large amount of quiet, whispered "understanding" here in Germany, which is exteremely valuable in the short, mid, and long-term to Russia. If he slapped Germany in the face by attacking while Whisperin' Olaf was there, it would hit Germans in that critical spot known as the massive German ego. I honestly think the day after Scholz's visit would be risky in that same light, as it indicates that he didn't even take his talk with Scholz seriously. But, I guess a lot of people say it is tomorrow, which still seems odd to me that we have an actual date on which a war is supposed to kick off, but "it is what it is" in this weird information space that we are all in. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[52-80 19149]

putin just pulled ye ole PSYCH on everyone huh

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

putin just pulled ye ole PSYCH on everyone huh

Currency markets seem to think so:

 

[52-80 19149]

5 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Currency markets seem to think so:

 

it all went in tandem.  SPX & NDX spiked, gold plunged like a neckline, and crude lost a buck.  automated trading is really something

[52-80 19149]

[Shady Ray 1633]

RT, which of course has no other redeeming value than in its capacity as official mouthpiece for the Kremlin, has the withdrawal of troops from Belarus blaring in large font on their homepage with a "watch Russia pull back weaponry after Belarus drills" call to action just underneath. So they clearly want this information distributed widely and visibly. It could be a feint, or it could be pro-active PR spin for the foreign or domestic audience indicating a draw-down, or it could be something else. But it is clearly organized and meant to be seen.

 

And notably at the top of the corresponding article:

 

Major General Igor Konashenkov, the chief spokesperson for the ministry, delivered the news in a video released by military chiefs on Tuesday.

“As the forces complete their military exercises, they will, as always, complete a multimodal march back to their permanent bases,” Konashenkov stated. “The divisions of the South and West Military Districts have finished their tasks and have already begun loading the rail and automobile transport, and today will begin moving back to their military garrisons.”

 

https://www.rt.com/russia/549402-troops-withdrawing-ukraine-border/

 

Edited to include the following which is top story on Focus:

Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Russian invasion could be averted for the time being
10.48 a.m.: According to Ukraine, a Russian invasion has been averted for the time being. "We and our allies managed to prevent Russia from escalating further," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in Kiev on Tuesday. It is already mid-February and you can see that diplomacy continues to work.

The government in Moscow had previously announced a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. Units from the military districts in the south and west of Russia would have "fulfilled their tasks" and would make their way back to their military bases, said a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense, according to Russian news agencies.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/russland-ukraine-konflikt-russland-kuendigt-teil-abzug-von-soldaten-an-scholz-verweigert-putins-pcr-test_id_52139887.html

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

And now the Duma formally requests Putin to recognize the "People's Republics". Obviously, this is all coordinated with Putin, so the question is whether he intends to act on it, thus escalating the tension. Or, alternatively, declines to accept the recommendation, thus portraying himself as a reasonable leader. This one is going to be interesting.

 

Russia Duma Votes to Ask Putin to Recognize Ukraine Separatists
Kremlin hasn’t publicly announced position on proposal
Recognition could hit peace talks, open way for more support

The lower house of Russia’s parliament voted to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognize separatist entities in eastern Ukraine, potentially raising tensions in the region.

Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said the resolution will be sent to the president “immediately.” The Kremlin so far hasn’t publicly stated its position on the proposal. The Duma rejected a draft proposed by the ruling United Russia party to send the resolution to the Foreign Ministry for consideration.

 

Russia has supported the breakaway quasi-states of the so-called People’s Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk militarily and financially since their formation in 2014. Officially it denies any armed support and backs a peace plan that calls for their reintegration into Ukraine. Recognition could complicate or scuttle efforts to implement that pact and potentially pave the way for Moscow to openly supply more weapons to the republics, something the ruling party has already proposed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-duma-votes-to-ask-putin-to-recognize-ukraine-separatists-kznzqs1l

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

On the idea of NATO declaring no new members if not flat out denying Ukraine membership, the key would be what is Putin giving up? His compromise can’t be, “ I won’t invade Ukraine.”

personally I think if Putin take part or all of Ukraine, he is screwing up the long game. Sure, Europe needs his petroleum now but every euro country sees how Putin’s petroleum comes with a price of having to do whatever Russia says, to some extent. 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

So far most of the OSINT guys are mixed to leaning pessimist on the “withdrawal” taking place. NATO SecGen has said the same.

The “extreme” bill on separatist recognition is fascinating.  Remember that no bore happens without Putin’s instructions. Possibly the most divisive scenario for the Alliance is as follows:

- Russia recognizes the regions

- Separatists “request” Russian military assistance 

- Russia does so and the invasion happens without a shot being fired, soon we start hearing noises about annexation.

Many Western Allies will hail anything short of war as a victory of sorts, the Kremlin will claim war fears were overhyped, Zelenskyy is weakened, Ukraine keeps getting sliced up slowly, and Russia has a new salient to get hyperventilated about.  Germany and France will certainly argue for the lightest sanctions package possible as a reward for Putin for not killing people as he invades his neighbor. 

[Caponata 151]

17 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

US media and intelligence have a lot on the line if this ends up being a nothing burger and all hype from our side

They sold the Iraq War & praised basically intervention. The blue checks are salivating at a potential war.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Caponata

[Homercles 10205]

For some reason I’ve been convinced, despite mounting evidence, that they were not really going to mount a full scale invasion.  I figured it was to apply pressure to get some kind of concession on NATO or Europe or both.  Was just starting to think my baseless hunch was wrong…but hearing about that motion for the separatists has me back to leaning my original way.  
 

Russians don’t take a dump without a plan

[FartingMonk 3606]

10 minutes ago, Homercles said:

For some reason I’ve been convinced, despite mounting evidence, that they were not really going to mount a full scale invasion.  I figured it was to apply pressure to get some kind of concession on NATO or Europe or both.  Was just starting to think my baseless hunch was wrong…but hearing about that motion for the separatists has me back to leaning my original way.  
 

Russians don’t take a dump without a plan

It was just way over the top.  I guess in Russia everything is hammer

[956 Worldwide 34705]

I still don’t think you can write anything off yet.  For example, this clip allegedly showing demobilization has been geolocated to Southern Crimea. In other words, nowhere near a place where they’d have been part of an attack in Ukraine.

One problem with Donetsk/Luhansk recognition is that both of those entities claim territory well into the Ukrainian side of the LOC. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Interesting to see the Ukrainian FM shift his tone over the course of an hour.

 

First reaction after being asked about it was reported here in Germany at approx 11:00 AM CET: "Different statements come from Russia all the time, that's why we have the rule - not to believe when we hear it, but to believe when we see it."

 

Then, appoximately an hour later at 11:48 CET: "We and our allies managed to prevent Russia from further escalating," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in Kiev on Tuesday. "It is now mid-February and you can see that our diplomacy continues to work."

 

Something is causing him to change his tone.

[52-80 19149]

i cant believe putin promised to invade but wouldnt 😤😤😤

[Homercles 10205]

Remains to be seen if he’s Putin on the blitz

…I’ll see myself out 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

6 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Remains to be seen if he’s Putin on the blitz

…I’ll see myself out 

 

[Trey3216 15346]

9 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Remains to be seen if he’s Putin on the blitz

…I’ll see myself out 

If you're red, and you don't know where to go

Why don't you go where Donetsk sits?  Putin on the blitz.

Different types of winter camo, there's green there's white and plenty ammo.

Kiev on spits, Putin on the blitz.  

[Shady Ray 1633]

16 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Remains to be seen if he’s Putin on the blitz

…I’ll see myself out 

 

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

If you're red, and you don't know where to go

Why don't you go where Donetsk sits?  Putin on the blitz.

Different types of winter camo, there's green there's white and plenty ammo.

Kiev on spits, Putin on the blitz.  

 

[South Austin 52460]

20 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Remains to be seen if he’s Putin on the blitz

…I’ll see myself out 

 

[KYHorn 17019]

Certainly seems plausible that this "withdrawal" could be part of an attempt to strengthen the deception of what ends up being planned false-flag operation. In other words "See! We were leaving and deescalating and then they attacked us so we had to go back!"

Edited February 15, 2022 by KYHorn

[atomheartbevo 89643]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

RT, which of course has no other redeeming value than in its capacity as official mouthpiece for the Kremlin, has the withdrawal of troops from Belarus blaring in large font on their homepage with a "watch Russia pull back weaponry after Belarus drills" call to action just underneath. So they clearly want this information distributed widely and visibly. It could be a feint, or it could be pro-active PR spin for the foreign or domestic audience indicating a draw-down, or it could be something else. But it is clearly organized and meant to be seen.

It’s interesting

https://www.rt.com/russia/549410-western-war-propaganda-failed/

Quote

In a fiery statement on Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova poured scorn on weeks of reports and claims from US and European officials that Moscow’s armed forces could be just hours away from launching a strike against its neighbor.

“15 February 2022 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed,” she wrote. According to her, the West has been “shamed and destroyed without firing a single shot.”

Quote

At the same time, Moscow’s Ministry of Defense announced that a number of Russian troops had finished their training exercises in Belarus, close to the Ukrainian border, and will begin the process of withdrawing.

Quote

On Monday, Russia’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, said that his side had been disappointed by the response from NATO and the US, but there were still hopes of reaching a diplomatic solution. Speaking shortly after Zakharova on Tuesday, he claimed that Western reports of an imminent invasion amounted to “information terrorism.”

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

At a press conference with Scholz, as Scholz argued that NATO had intervened in Yugoslavia to prevent genocide, Putin interrupted and said that what is happening in Donbas is a genocide according to their estimates.

Not super promising.

[BabaYaga 15290]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s interesting

https://www.rt.com/russia/549410-western-war-propaganda-failed/

 

The Ukraine leadership has been lambasting the West, and specifically the US for inflammatory and rhetoric that seemed more to incite conflict than deter it this whole time.  This whole talk of "invasion" was always suspect.

Put it this way.  I honestly cannot remember any smaller country that was a vassal to a larger, under the threat of imminent invasion or attack, that didn't cry for help/protection....and instead kept telling the larger country to rightly fuck off and leave them alone? 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Scholz comes as close as possible to saying that if war happens NS2 gets shut off. Says “we know what will happen and what the political reality is.”
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Putin says “Russia will act according to the plan. What is the plan? It doesn’t depend on us. No one knows how it will develop.” 

Edited February 15, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Shady Ray 1633]

Watching the live stream now of Putin and Scholz. It is remarkable the difference in Scholz's tone and demeanor with Putin today vs. with Zelensky yesterday. Scholz is clearly much warmer and comfortable today.

 

But he looks absolutely beat to fuck.

 

Avoided the NS2 topic. Encouraged economic cooperation with Russia, lol. Mercantiles gonna mercantile.

 

Won't criticise ex-chanceller/fellow SPD member Gerhard Schröder's role with NS2. Putin praises Gerhardt saying he negotiated the cheap rates that we pay here and that we should be thankful for such a "good man". Lolz.

 

They just asked about Navalny, which he basically punted on saying the Germans have addressed this.

 

Says Russia is showing good faith by removing troops. Diplomacy is far from exhausted. 

"It is our damned duty to prevent escalation in Europe"

 

"Both sides must implement the Minsk agreements"

 

Putin wants clarity from NATO on Ukrainian accession.

 

Will post more as they keep going.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10232]

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The Ukraine leadership has been lambasting the West, and specifically the US for inflammatory and rhetoric that seemed more to incite conflict than deter it this whole time.  This whole talk of "invasion" was always suspect.

Put it this way.  I honestly cannot remember any smaller country that was a vassal to a larger, under the threat of imminent invasion or attack, that didn't cry for help/protection....and instead kept telling the larger country to rightly fuck off and leave them alone? 

Yep... I mean the UK keeping their Kiev embassy open told me the "imminent" threat was not seen by all. It's a great play though, you get to pretend your diplomacy is actually working even as Russia is sticking to its original story of what it was doing and what it was asking for.  Putin will get the concessions he is wanting and will be made to look like he was strong armed into taking them.

[52-80 19149]

Just now, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Yep... I mean the UK keeping their Kiev embassy open told me the "imminent" threat was not seen by all. It's a great play though, you get to pretend your diplomacy is actually working even as Russia is sticking to its original story of what it was doing and what it was asking for.  Putin will get the concessions he is wanting and will be made to look like he was strong armed into taking them.

Many other other states kept their embassy in place.  The World Bank and other bodies yanking their office/staff from Kiev and routed air traffic and everything else was a real thing, just as Russia's massive military staging was a real thing.

Only diff is how people interpret their sabre-rattling.  And none of us have a case to say one way or another.  What we can agree on is Putin can play this game of chicken better than anyone else...king larper supremo.

[Shady Ray 1633]

"NATO eastward enlargement is not likely to occur during our term in office."

 

LOL, Olaf. That might be next month at the rate you are going. 

 

They are done. 

[Bevo 13575]

In the end, I don't think the west cares that much about the Ukraine. Though it makes Putin look strong, I think the final outcome will be an increase in defenses in eastern europe. Hungary and the Czech Republic have signed the NPT but they have to protect themselves from Russia. It is pretty clear that relying on the West to help them in a conflict isn't a great strategy. They are part of NATO, however.

[956 Worldwide 34705]

It has been something to watch my Twitter and newsfeed blowup after the Russian MOD announced “withdrawals” and after any statements from Russian officials. 
 

Reminder: In 2017 the Russian MOD Tweeted computer game screenshots and said they were proof of U.S. aid to ISIS.

In 2014, Putin said that the “Little Green Men” were local Ukrainians defending themselves.

Just a reminder that every part of the Russian state will lie to the world’s face without blinking.  Also seeing more and more OSINT guys saying that if anything the buildup on the border is intensifying . . .

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Just a reminder that every part of the Russian state will lie to the world’s face without blinking.  Also seeing more and more OSINT guys saying that if anything the buildup on the border is intensifying . . .

 

[GW Hayduke 1953]

54 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The Ukraine leadership has been lambasting the West, and specifically the US for inflammatory and rhetoric that seemed more to incite conflict than deter it this whole time.  This whole talk of "invasion" was always suspect.

Put it this way.  I honestly cannot remember any smaller country that was a vassal to a larger, under the threat of imminent invasion or attack, that didn't cry for help/protection....and instead kept telling the larger country to rightly fuck off and leave them alone? 

The whole point of what you consider “inflammatory rhetoric to incite conflict”  by the US is to ensure it is properly communicated that the costs of military conflict will be high - additional future NATO military buildup, an increase in the probability that more countries will join NATO, various sanctions, and the movement of Europe away from Russian energy sources.  That “inflammatory rhetoric to incite conflict” is also as much direct communication the Putin as it is a mobilization of our allies to do their part (Germany, UK, etc.).

If the costs of using the military to achieve Putin’s political objectives is too high, then there will not be a military conflict.  

[BabaYaga 15290]

2 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

The whole point of what you consider “inflammatory rhetoric to incite conflict”  by the US is to ensure it is properly communicated that the costs of military conflict will be high - additional future NATO military buildup, an increase in the probability that more countries will join NATO, various sanctions, and the movement of Europe away from Russian energy sources.  That “inflammatory rhetoric to incite conflict” is also as much direct communication the Putin as it is a mobilization of our allies to do their part (Germany, UK, etc.).

If the costs of using the military to achieve Putin’s political objectives is too high, then there will not be a military conflict.  

And yet the actual country in the cross hairs of invasion and conflict is telling us to tone this shit down and only three of the 129 diplomatic offices have pulled out.  Telling.  

[GW Hayduke 1953]

10 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

And yet the actual country in the cross hairs of invasion and conflict is telling us to tone this shit down and only three of the 129 diplomatic offices have pulled out.  Telling.  

Does it tell you that Ukraine’s politicians do not want to promote panic within their population? Does it tell you that Ukraine’s politicians want to minimize economic impact to their country under the “no military invasion” scenario?  What is telling about that to you?

[BabaYaga 15290]

4 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

Does it tell you that Ukraine’s politicians do not want to promote panic within their population? Does it tell you that Ukraine’s politicians want to minimize economic impact to their country under the “no military invasion” scenario?  What is telling about that to you?

Panic?  Because countries on the potential receiving end of invasion always tell their protectors to back off and go away.  

[GW Hayduke 1953]

7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Panic?  Because countries on the potential receiving end of invasion always tell their protectors to back off and go away.  

Ukrainian politicians haven’t told the US to go away. I don’t know why anyone outside of Russian misinformation bubbles would have that understanding. 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Several Ukrainian banks as well as Defense/Armed Forces sites are down.  You can try to access the Ukraine Ministry of Defense site yourselves.

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1493623129180196872?s=21

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

German news radio saying Putin has said that he will not accept the recommendation from the Duma regarding recognition of the "People's Republics", but instead will insist on the resolution occurring through the parameters of Minsk 2. Which, of course, can change...but at least for now, that's his position.

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Shady Ray

[BabaYaga 15290]

5 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

Ukrainian politicians haven’t told the US to go away. I don’t know why anyone outside of Russian misinformation bubbles would have that understanding. 

They stringently told them to back off the rhetoric - expressly saying they are making this entire thing worse and to take a giant step back and let them handle this.  That the steps the US have been taking are the ones creating panic.  That their own on the ground information was very much at odds with this opaque "intelligence" that the state department keeps citing but won't share.

They have also of course expressly condemned the largely symbolic US/UK/Can embassy moves when 126 other embassies have done nothing.  

Putin doesn't want a war anymore than we do.  If his express interest is rebuffing NATO on it's borders, invading a neighboring country is a pretty stupid way to achieve it, as the subsequent buildups would more than likely equal or surpass prior Cold War levels.  

Putin wants a more pro-Russia Ukraine that will not accept acceptance into NATO.  It's about spheres of influence.  

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Something else odd.  Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is in Syria today, a weird place for him to be as well over half of Russia’s combat capacity is near Ukraine and allegedly going to start drawing down. I won’t try to say what this means, just that it’s truly bizarre. 

[Borachio 416]

So I should hold off for a bit with my trip to tour Chernobyl or naw?  The pandemic already canceled this trip for me once back in April 2020.  Now it's the Russians.  FML

[Shady Ray 1633]

Yeah, he met with Assad today and is supposed oversee naval drills. Russia told the Israeli's to cool it with their actions in Syria last week, so this could be related to that. Russia has been fucking with Israeli GPS systems over the last few weeks and I think the general feeling was that they were sending the message that Syria could be a theater in which they apply pressure, so get on the horn with your allies in the US and encourage them to come to the table. Russian and Syrian air force also carried out joint patrols along the Israeli border last month, including just up to the Golan Heights, which was a first.

 

So I assume all of this Syria stuff is still linked to Ukraine indirectly. GOLL and I were talking about this a few weeks back as being a place they could apply additional pressure, and I bet this is intended to send that message. Ukraine dies down, Israel will have a much freeer hand again in Syria.

[MoJames 8244]

3 minutes ago, Borachio said:

So I should hold off for a bit with my trip to tour Chernobyl or naw?  The pandemic already canceled this trip for me once back in April 2020.  Now it's the Russians.  FML

[GW Hayduke 1953]

12 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

They stringently told them to back off the rhetoric - expressly saying they are making this entire thing worse and to take a giant step back and let them handle this.  That the steps the US have been taking are the ones creating panic.  That their own on the ground information was very much at odds with this opaque "intelligence" that the state department keeps citing but won't share.

That is all a heavily editorialized and slanted understanding of what Danilov actually said.  Which is fine I suppose, but most importantly, he did not tell the US to go away. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

So I should hold off for a bit with my trip to tour Chernobyl or naw?  The pandemic already canceled this trip for me once back in April 2020.  Now it's the Russians.  FML

Ukraine is still a stage 4 RED DO NOT TRAVEL LIST

due to Covid 19




https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/ukraine-travel-advisory.html

[Captainant 27646]

3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ukraine is still a stage 4 RED DO NOT TRAVEL LIST

due to Covid 19




https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/ukraine-travel-advisory.html

cmon man, at least try harder in your trolling.

[Jersey Man10 3528]

So what’s the current situation?

[52-80 19149]

1 minute ago, Jersey Man10 said:

So what’s the current situation?

its fluid and/or piss