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Eastwood

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Homesickhorn

Homesickhorn 2202

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

There was a dude during the Roman empire named Crassius that did this.  He had his owned fire department.  Wealthy nobles homes would be set on fire.  His fire brigade would show up.  He would force the homeowner to sell at pennies on the dollar and then put the fire out.  After it was done he would sell the house back at full price

CRASSIUS....MOVE...THAT...BUS!!!!!

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

From a European standpoint, the Polish-UK-Ukraine pact is interesting as it puts a lot of dents in the idea of a common EU foreign and security policy led by France and Germany.  The timing and messaging here is important— as things start to fray, Poland decides that France and Germany are doing too much leading from behind and promptly makes a deal with the country the French and Germans want to distance themselves from and with the country that just left the club. 
 

And Poland can’t be waved away. Yes it has major rule of law issues, yes it’s obstructionist in the EU at times, yes it’s a net recipient of funds. But it’s got 38 million people and legitimate military capabilities that it’s upgrading, it’s steadily boosting the U.S. presence in country, it’s strategically located, and it has an activist foreign policy of its own.  And now not only does Europe have to balance NATO questions, but in any attempt to form a common foreign policy, Poland had this other “thing of ours” that it’s committed to. 
 

Hard to see this as anything else as an “alternate center of gravity” forming and it will be interesting to see if others jump on board.  The Lithuanians would be a logical choice. And the U.S. is obviously a silent partner. 

I see they went with the alliance within alliance move and not the appeasement move.  Either way it doesn't end well if history proves correct

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89649

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

They also happen to the a location where advanced, American anti-ballistic missiles happen to be deployed

Missiles in Poland & Putin not a fan

Putin knows that Russia is a part of the reason they are there, but we are also heading towards a time where some loons in the Middle East will get their hands on missiles that can hit Europe.  Obviously some of the state actors can actually already do that, but it's only a matter of time until an ISIS-style group gets one, either stolen from a state, or bought from North Korea or whatever.

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JerrysJheriCurl

JerrysJheriCurl 977

Posted
Posted

Ukraine: I flopped the nut straight.

Vlad: Motherfucker! Eb tvoju mat! Motherfucker! That is it!

Lavrov: That’s it? What the fuck you talking about, that’s it? Take it back, Vlad!

Vlad: Nyet! Nyet! No more! No! Not tonight! This son of bitch all night he check check check! He trapped me!

Ukraine: Well, you feeling satisfied now, Vladi? Cuz I can go on busting you all night.

Vlad: Nyet. Nyet. He beat me. Straight up. Pay him. Pay that man his money. 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34705

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Anyone know the story to Ukraine cutting off water to Crimea and pissing off the Russia https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putinns?

Sure. Pretty easy backstory. Crimea is a pretty arid place without a lot of abundant water which explains why it was sparsely populated by people like the pastoral Tatars.  The Soviets built a big canal from the mainland across the peninsula which opened up the peninsula to collective farming as well as large-scale tourism.  Crimea was basically Miami Beach, Biarritz, and Catskill summer camp all combined for party bigwigs and their children. 
 

In 2014 of course Russia occupied Crimea and illegally annexed it. Ukraine said “fuck you” and built dams across the canal in Ukrainian controlled territory. Agriculture there has plummeted and at times Russia has been reduced to trucking in water across the bridge they’ve built. Obviously, not sustainable.  Russia accuses Kyiv of ecocide and human rights abuses, Kyiv says that Russia is responsible for the welfare of people in an occupied territory. 
 

Like almost every issue around Ukraine, this is a case of Russia creating a problem for itself and then pounding the table when the counter party won’t address it, and address it in the way Russia demands.

 

 

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted

Ukraine best get to choir practice if they want to top this. (Sergey Bondarchuk' truly epic War & Peace is now on Netflix. The Borodino battle scenes that follow this are incredible. Nothing like them ever filmed -- the Red Army basically but whole divisions at Bondarchuk's disposal.):

 

Speaking of diss tracks in warfare: 

 

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

From a European standpoint, the Polish-UK-Ukraine pact is interesting as it puts a lot of dents in the idea of a common EU foreign and security policy led by France and Germany.  The timing and messaging here is important— as things start to fray, Poland decides that France and Germany are doing too much leading from behind and promptly makes a deal with the country the French and Germans want to distance themselves from and with the country that just left the club. 
 

And Poland can’t be waved away. Yes it has major rule of law issues, yes it’s obstructionist in the EU at times, yes it’s a net recipient of funds. But it’s got 38 million people and legitimate military capabilities that it’s upgrading, it’s steadily boosting the U.S. presence in country, it’s strategically located, and it has an activist foreign policy of its own.  And now not only does Europe have to balance NATO questions, but in any attempt to form a common foreign policy, Poland had this other “thing of ours” that it’s committed to. 
 

Hard to see this as anything else as an “alternate center of gravity” forming and it will be interesting to see if others jump on board.  The Lithuanians would be a logical choice. And the U.S. is obviously a silent partner. 

And that would be the first steps toward the formal rupture of the EU. If such an alternative happened where the US/UK and economically weaker eastern European EU member states actually got to the point where they were increasing the likelihood of open and active conflict with Russia as part of this new alliance, you will see unprecedented heavyhandedness from Brussels. And Poland will take the crown as the biggest losers in the whole undertaking when the dust settles. That's why it will never happen as a true alternate center of gravity. From an economic standpoint, it's simple calculus. Poland can choose to pursue such a hypothetical "alternative, ACTIVE militarily block", silently backed by the US, and go tits up economically. Or it can continue operating within the status quo, choosing to influence from within the current European security/economic apparatus. But Poland cannot and will not be permitted by those who subsidize its current financial development to serve as the Continental driver of a legitimate alternative which can economically harm the hands that feed everyone. This is the deal you make when you take billions upon billions upon billions from Brussels. The EU isn't a charity, and altruism doesn't exist within the Union, so Poland is subject to the physics of a transactional relationship in which they get farrrrrrr more than they give. In the EU, everyone has an equal vote. But not everyone has equal power. 
 

So the idea that the big economic powers of Europe are going to just stand aside and continue to essentially float Poland's economic viability (at least to its current standard of living), while simultaneously looking away while the Poles take measures increasing the likelihood of direct conflict with Russia on behalf of a non-EU/non-NATO country alongside non-EU members (actions which could fundamentally cripple German (and to greatly impact to the negative French and Italian economies) is much more workable in theory. As the US is well aware, NATO permits the primary paymaster a great degree influence on security policy within the EU. But the reverse is also true...the EU's primary paymasters also gain security policy influence over those who depend on their largesse. So Poland can dabble in these kind of side-projects to a certain degree, and it can raise as much hell as it wants within the confines of the existing structure...block what it wants, gripe about whatever, tweet about how resolute you are in the face of Russian aggression, trash the Germans for NS2...whatever y'all want.


But if it expands to actively undermining French-Italian-German economic interests (and thus the economic interests of the entire block, considering everyone would suffer if the three big boys tanked) by coordinating with the US and the Brits to start enforcing no fly zones over Eastern Ukraine and other such ideas, it will result in coordinated economic punishment inflicted upon Poland by the two countries who fund Poland's success. It would put the existence of the entire EU at risk, which would only serve to diminish the US influence in the big european economies, which the US is not stupid enough to trade for.  And, of course, it will increase the potential for further Russian exploitation, because then the obstacle to complete and total Russo-German (and Germany-dependent countries) alignment on energy and raw material would have absolutely zero roadblocks anymore. Basically, if the Poles want to go their own way on foreign policy, just watch how far off the reservation the Germans can go. NS2 is nothing in comparison to what would happen. NS2 is actually a restrained version of what the Germans would REALLY like to have. The geopolitical impact of that fallout is far, far greater to the US than some British-Polish-Ukrainian objectives. And to its credit, the US is way too smart to let that happen.

 

As a refresher visual:

 

spacer.png

 


1759443137_ScreenShot2022-02-18at11_51_55AM.thumb.png.6a2c34da862d55e961878d446517dc37.png


 

Edited by Shady Ray
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immamac

immamac 42839

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

And that would be the first steps toward the formal rupture of the EU. If such an alternative happened where the US/UK and economically weaker eastern European EU member states actually got to the point where they were increasing the likelihood of open and active conflict with Russia as part of this new alliance, you will see unprecedented heavyhandedness from Brussels. And Poland will take the crown as the biggest losers in the whole undertaking when the dust settles. That's why it will never happen as a true alternate center of gravity. From an economic standpoint, it's simple calculus. Poland can choose to pursue such a hypothetical "alternative, ACTIVE militarily block", silently backed by the US, and go tits up economically. Or it can continue operating within the status quo, choosing to influence from within the current European security/economic apparatus. But Poland cannot and will not be permitted by those who subsidize its current financial development to serve as the Continental driver of a legitimate alternative which can economically harm the hands that feed everyone. This is the deal you make when you take billions upon billions upon billions from Brussels. The EU isn't a charity, and altruism doesn't exist within the Union, so Poland is subject to the physics of a transactional relationship in which they get farrrrrrr more than they give. In the EU, everyone has an equal vote. But not everyone has equal power. 
 

So the idea that the big economic powers of Europe are going to just stand aside and continue to essentially float Poland's economic viability (at least to its current standard of living), while simultaneously looking away while the Poles take measures increasing the likelihood of direct conflict with Russia on behalf of a non-EU/non-NATO country alongside non-EU members (actions which could fundamentally cripple the French, German and Italian economies) is much more workable in theory. As the US is well aware, NATO permits the primary paymaster a great degree influence on security policy within the EU. But the reverse is also true...the EU's primary paymasters also gain security policy influence over those who depend on their largesse. So Poland can dabble in these kind of side-projects to a certain degree, and it can raise as much hell as it wants within the confines of the existing structure...block what it wants, gripe about whatever, tweet about how resolute you are in the face of Russian aggression, trash the Germans for NS2...whatever y'all want.


But if it expands to actively undermining French-Italian-German economic interests (and thus the economic interests of the entire block, considering everyone would suffer if the three big boys tanked) by coordinating with the US and the Brits to start enforcing no fly zones over Eastern Ukraine and other such ideas, it will result in coordinated economic punishment inflicted upon Poland by the two countries who fund Poland's success. It would put the existence of the entire EU at risk, which would only serve to diminish the US influence in the big european economies, which the US is not stupid enough to trade for.  And, of course, it will increase the potential for further Russian exploitation, because then the obstacle to complete and total Russo-German (and Germany-dependent countries) alignment on energy and raw material would have absolutely zero roadblocks anymore. Basically, if the Poles want to go their own way on foreign policy, just watch how far off the reservation the Germans can go. NS2 is nothing in comparison to what would happen. NS2 is actually a restrained version of what the Germans would REALLY like to have. The geopolitical impact of that fallout is far, far greater to the US than some British-Polish-Ukrainian objectives. And to its credit, the US is way too smart to let that happen.

 

As a refresher visual:

 

spacer.png

 


1759443137_ScreenShot2022-02-18at11_51_55AM.thumb.png.6a2c34da862d55e961878d446517dc37.png


 

I mean it already sounds like the EU failed to me. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15290

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin knows that Russia is a part of the reason they are there, but we are also heading towards a time where some loons in the Middle East will get their hands on missiles that can hit Europe.  Obviously some of the state actors can actually already do that, but it's only a matter of time until an ISIS-style group gets one, either stolen from a state, or bought from North Korea or whatever.

We could move them to Turkey if we really wanted, or much closer to the western borders of Poland.  They're a giant middle finger to Putin and it pisses him off and have him extremely worried.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) only works when both sides are vulnerable to one another.  I can hurt you.  You can hurt me.  So let's not do this.

Modern systems, either on land or in space, that can provide an effective method to mitigate attacks changes everything.  Missiles such as these could be classified as such.  When one side is no longer as vulnerable, this can and will cause the other side to make more desperate moves.  

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34705

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LonghornJones said:

Dumb question: what is the Russian area called between Poland and Lithuania...other than Russia? Is there a nickname or regional name, like the Crimean Peninsula?

Kaliningrad, former Koenigsberg. Renamed after the second war.  The city is Kaliningrad proper and the rest is Kaliningrad Oblast. 
 

Throwback: East Prussia. 

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JerrysJheriCurl

JerrysJheriCurl 977

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist areas announced an evacuation into Russia. Lines of cars at gas stations and busses to take people across the border. Shit is fixing to blow up. 

I think this is the tell I’ve been looking/waiting for.

This is the indicator, IMHO, where Russia justifies its invasion into Ukrainian territory. 

As you said hermano, shit is fixing to get real. 

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JerrysJheriCurl

JerrysJheriCurl 977

Posted
Posted (edited)

And TASS has LPR and DPR reporting they received the most intense shelling by Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Peskov said that the Kremlin was keeping an eye on the situation and it is, “very, very dangerous,” due to Ukrainian provocation.

Russia feeding its people more rationalization to go into Ukrainian borders.

Cue Michael Buffer. 

Edited by JerrysJheriCurl
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'stache

'stache 21802

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

And that would be the first steps toward the formal rupture of the EU. If such an alternative happened where the US/UK and economically weaker eastern European EU member states actually got to the point where they were increasing the likelihood of open and active conflict with Russia as part of this new alliance, you will see unprecedented heavyhandedness from Brussels. And Poland will take the crown as the biggest losers in the whole undertaking when the dust settles. That's why it will never happen as a true alternate center of gravity. From an economic standpoint, it's simple calculus. Poland can choose to pursue such a hypothetical "alternative, ACTIVE militarily block", silently backed by the US, and go tits up economically. Or it can continue operating within the status quo, choosing to influence from within the current European security/economic apparatus. But Poland cannot and will not be permitted by those who subsidize its current financial development to serve as the Continental driver of a legitimate alternative which can economically harm the hands that feed everyone. This is the deal you make when you take billions upon billions upon billions from Brussels. The EU isn't a charity, and altruism doesn't exist within the Union, so Poland is subject to the physics of a transactional relationship in which they get farrrrrrr more than they give. In the EU, everyone has an equal vote. But not everyone has equal power. 
 

So the idea that the big economic powers of Europe are going to just stand aside and continue to essentially float Poland's economic viability (at least to its current standard of living), while simultaneously looking away while the Poles take measures increasing the likelihood of direct conflict with Russia on behalf of a non-EU/non-NATO country alongside non-EU members (actions which could fundamentally cripple German (and to greatly impact to the negative French and Italian economies) is much more workable in theory. As the US is well aware, NATO permits the primary paymaster a great degree influence on security policy within the EU. But the reverse is also true...the EU's primary paymasters also gain security policy influence over those who depend on their largesse. So Poland can dabble in these kind of side-projects to a certain degree, and it can raise as much hell as it wants within the confines of the existing structure...block what it wants, gripe about whatever, tweet about how resolute you are in the face of Russian aggression, trash the Germans for NS2...whatever y'all want.


But if it expands to actively undermining French-Italian-German economic interests (and thus the economic interests of the entire block, considering everyone would suffer if the three big boys tanked) by coordinating with the US and the Brits to start enforcing no fly zones over Eastern Ukraine and other such ideas, it will result in coordinated economic punishment inflicted upon Poland by the two countries who fund Poland's success. It would put the existence of the entire EU at risk, which would only serve to diminish the US influence in the big european economies, which the US is not stupid enough to trade for.  And, of course, it will increase the potential for further Russian exploitation, because then the obstacle to complete and total Russo-German (and Germany-dependent countries) alignment on energy and raw material would have absolutely zero roadblocks anymore. Basically, if the Poles want to go their own way on foreign policy, just watch how far off the reservation the Germans can go. NS2 is nothing in comparison to what would happen. NS2 is actually a restrained version of what the Germans would REALLY like to have. The geopolitical impact of that fallout is far, far greater to the US than some British-Polish-Ukrainian objectives. And to its credit, the US is way too smart to let that happen.

 

As a refresher visual:

 

spacer.png

 


1759443137_ScreenShot2022-02-18at11_51_55AM.thumb.png.6a2c34da862d55e961878d446517dc37.png


 

Poland: The Alabama of Europe.

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Poland: The Alabama of Europe.

Great people. Great food. Great-looking women. Absolutely admirable determination and doggedness. Tough as nails.

 

Many, however, have a completely insane view of their own status though. Polls in one of their big newspapers showed over 40% want a second referendum on EU membership, and "PolExit" is really a thing that they talk about. I can't imagine it is actually that high, and I doubt they would be so dumb as to follow through with a "Leave" vote, but the fact that even a measurable amount of them even think about shows a serious disconnection from reality.

 

So...lemme get this straight...you net 12 billion dollars annually of someone else's straight cash (homie) to pay for your roads, bridges, railways, and agriculture development, but over 40% of you want a re-vote on EU membership because Poland can do it better on their own, because the gheys suck (they implemented "LGBTQ-Free Zones" all throughout SE Poland before the EU withheld just a little bit of their EU funds, after which those same municipal leaders became suddenly not quite so Catholic and reversed course), and because you want to go your own way on Ukraine? Okayyyy.

 

The idea of PolExit makes Brexit seem absolutely rational.

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