Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34731]

Let’s veer back into the realm of possible and explore Russia’s potential war aims.  Because how a war ends is more interesting and arguably more important than how it starts. Surprise— I don’t see any of the likely scenarios contributing to a better security environment for Russia or anyone else.  These are by nature simplified into categories with significant room for each scenario to take on different attributes. 
 

Minimal-  Putin recognizes Donbas areas in a preview to annexation and sends in Russian “peacekeepers.” Very likely, they seize the areas claimed but not controlled currently by DPR/LPR and potentially seize a corridor to connect them to Crimea by land.  Accompanied by usual cyber and propaganda warfare, no real effort is made to change the leadership in Kyiv.

Problem: This moves pieces around the board but does not result in check. Russians do not really want Donbas, unlike Crimea. Attitudes against Russia have hardened and Ukraine leans even harder into the West. After the immediate crisis passes, more Western arms and trainers flow to Ukraine. Putin can write off a friendly Kyiv in his lifetime.  Likely crippling sanctions. This is a good punt— you flip the field but you’re back on defense if you’re Russia. Putin has pretty much said he considers a pro-West Kyiv to be a core security threat. 

Moderate- All the above PLUS a decapitation strike against Ukrainian leadership and installation of a new, friendly regime. Perhaps a bigger land grab in the East that then the new government “recognizes.”  
 

Problem: Ukrainians do not want a puppet government and one cannot be installed and maintained absent extreme repressive measures.  Manipulation and tricks do not work, see Orange Revolution and 2014z Ukraine would become a true client state. Russian forces likely needed throughout the country to maintain order.  The west does have a history and terrain to support an insurgency and the West might be inclined to support it.  Strong potential of low grade warfare on the border with NATO and increasing chance of miscalculations. High likelihood of serious human rights abuses and refugee flows all around and now Russia has a new security problem- how to continue to prop up Kyiv against itself. 
 

Maximum- Russia attempts to occupy the country and incorporate Ukraine into Russia. A combined arms army in Uzhgorod looking across the border at NATO. Putin is your president now, Yevhen. 
 

Problems: Almost all of the above insurgence and pacification issues plus now Putin has what he says he doesn’t want— NATO at his doorstep.  Moldova, with its own frozen conflict, becomes the new bone of contention as the last sort of “gray area” left. NATO dramatically increases its force posture on the eastern flank. The only semi-benefit is the cold simplicity of the new “mine and yours” Iron Curtain. 
 

My own thought is Putin is most likely to go to some form of moderate ending— and I am not at all sure that Russia has the capability to achieve it without serious aftershocks that they may not be able to cope with. 

Edited February 19, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[staboner 4984]

some sensitive motherfuckers on page 39 i tell you what 

[TejanoAtUT 15]

Seems like another worrying sign that the Russian plan continues to roll on.

"Russian-appointed of head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk “People's Republic,” Denis Pushilin, announced a general mobilization in the occupied territory. Also seeing reports from Donetsk that men of military age aren’t being allowed to leave the area."

[956 Worldwide 34731]

6 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Man some of y'all are really all het up about the sanctity of Ukrainian independence...Or is it that you feel Putin is making America look weak? Are we still butthurt over the 2016 election and how he (and not Fox News) brainwashed our elders and the dumber of our old friends? Residual Cold War paranoia?

What I see is two corrupt and oligarchical nations fighting over protecting their slice of the pie. It's not like they don't share millennia of common history, or that Russia is gonna come in there and pull a Tibet / Xinjiang and attempt to erase the Ukrainians as a people. I just don't get the bloodlust. 

So serious response that I don’t think is going cloak room— the perception that Ukraine and Russia are kind of all the same except one is Team ‘Merica and the other is Team Bear— is a reflection of the type of Kremlin narrative that has crept into Western and U.S. discourse without the awareness that it is a Kremlin narrative. Because on the ground, nothing can be further from the truth. Ukraine with all its obvious and admitted problems with corruption and even extremism is not only far more humane and open than Russia right now, it is the only one even making an effort to “do better” as Gen Z says. 
 

But even assuming I’m wrong about that— the only person interested in having Russian soldiers and Ukrainian soldiers and civilians die is the Russian president. This would absolutely be a war of choice, there is no pressing security issue facing Putin. The only one that is floated (genocide, human rights abuse in Donbas)— is made up by Russia. So we’re back to that propaganda and disinformation war.

Here’s your analogy as I see it, even accepting your framing (I don’t accept it). There are two warring crime families that have settled into a tense semi-peace. The weaker family just wants his turf and will never make a move against the bigger one because he can’t. The leader of the bigger crew has decided to take out the smaller, and he’s the one that’s threatening to have a gun—battle in that neighborhood and spray bullets into civilians bedrooms.

They may both be assholes but one is clearly more asshole and more of a threat to the rest of us. 

 

Edited February 19, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[956 Worldwide 34731]

18 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:

Seems like another worrying sign that the Russian plan continues to roll on.

"Russian-appointed of head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk “People's Republic,” Denis Pushilin, announced a general mobilization in the occupied territory. Also seeing reports from Donetsk that men of military age aren’t being allowed to leave the area."

Here is more worrying- Russia claiming a Ukrainian shell landed in Russia. 

 

Edited February 19, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Shady Ray 1633]

So one of the things that I have seen in some videos with physicists/engineers with defense/weapons expertise analyzing that state of Russian military tech is that the Russians are seen by many in the field as having a legitmate claim to possessing the best Electronic Warfare tech in the world.


I am an idiot when it comes to this kind of shit, so my question is to what degree, if any, can this EW superiority impact close-range weaponry? For example, can their EW supremacy make a dent in the efficiency of Javelins? I know that they are SACLOS guided, but I am too dumb to understand if the fact that these are deployed in close proximity leaves them less likely to be impacted by EW.


Any of you fuckers able to learn me on this?

Edited February 19, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34731]

I mentioned this upthread and I think it went overlooked. Russia has launched its Grom (Thunder) 2022 strategic exercises that includes ballistic and hypersonic missile tests and puts Russia’s strategic arsenal on high alert.  Putin invited Lukashenka to watch at the Kremlin control room.  The signal here is clear— NATO can FAFO if they try to stop anything in Ukraine. We are into a seriously critical phase of this crisis.

 

max seddon (@maxseddon) Tweeted:
Here's Putin and Lukashenko, who he brought along for the ride, observing the nuclear drills in the Kremlin while looking at the Big Board. Table watch: medium-sized. https://t.co/AqXzGJ5tFw

Edited February 19, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[bernorange 8362]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

... and explore Russia’s potential war aims.

It was my understanding, though I admit I have not really been diving in on details, that Russia's Ukraine ambitions had something to do with pipelines and securing the European energy market.  Something about building their own pipeline or blocking a pipeline from the middle east.

 

[FartingMonk 3608]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

So one of the things that I have seen in some videos with physicists/engineers with defense/weapons expertise analyzing that state of Russian military tech is that the Russians are seen by many in the field as having a legitmate claim to possessing the best Electronic Warfare tech in the world.


I am an idiot when it comes to this kind of shit, so my question is to what degree, if any, can this EW superiority impact close-range weaponry? For example, can their EW supremacy make a dent in the efficiency of Javelins? I know that they are SACLOS guided, but I am too dumb to understand if the fact that these are deployed in close proximity leaves them less likely to be impacted by EW.


Any of you fuckers able to learn me on this?

Line of sight so pop a lot of smoke and you can't see them.  If you can't see them you can't shoot them.  You can either jam a radio signal or you can spoof it.  So it either locks onto everything or it locks onto nothing.  That's why I'm curious about this.  They've been around for long enough for both sides to know about the weakness.  Once it locks though it's gameover

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Olaf still straddling that fence at the Munich Security Conference today, complete with a potshot directed towards NATO expansion. Won't mention NS2 by name, and reaffirms position re weapons shipments. Praises NATO, but speaks about the need for the reform of the EU and NATO. Also discusses continuing cooperation with Russia and China on important issues, saying one can critique but still work together. Basically just hollow words all the way around from the lil' fella.

 

Quote

 

Düsseldorf, Berlin -- The cautious signals of détente that Olaf Scholz had brought back from Moscow at the beginning of the week were no longer in evidence in Munich: "A new war is looming in Europe. The risk is anything but averted," said the Chancellor at the Munich Security Conference (MSC). There can only be peace in Europe if all countries accept the existing borders, Scholz said, addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
 

All diplomatic doors for a peaceful solution would be kept open, the chancellor promised. "We want as much diplomacy as possible," he said, pinning his hopes on the Minsk Agreement, which envisages peaceful coexistence between Russia and Ukraine with the help of autonomy rights for the breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine's Donbass.
 

"However, quick successes are not to be expected," Scholz stressed. He reiterated Ukraine's non-negotiable right to a free choice of alliance, but also made clear that this issue would not be on the agenda in the foreseeable future. The Chancellor assured the Eastern European NATO members that Germany was fully committed to its alliance obligation under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
 

It was the SPD politician's first speech as Chancellor at the Security Conference and he took the opportunity to outline his ideas for a new security architecture in Europe. Today, he said, security means more than military security. The risks of climate change, pandemics and cyberattacks must also be given greater consideration. Germany must make its contribution to solving these problems. But this should not lead to a "global NATO," Scholz said.
 

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/ukraine-krise-bundeskanzler-olaf-scholz-die-risiken-eines-krieges-sind-alles-andere-als-gebannt/28085090.html

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

Scholz addresses NATO and EU reforms
The major crisis overshadows Scholz's call for reform of the EU and NATO. His predecessor, Angela Merkel, has often been criticized for coming up with too few ideas on these issues and leaving the stage to France. Scholz outlines his ideas in broad strokes: The EU and NATO would have to "adapt to new risks" - including climate change, the misuse of cyberspace and health risks. The capabilities needed to do so would have to be provided.

"That also applies to Germany," Scholz says, and somehow to him that seems amusing: The chancellor smirks slightly. He stresses European sovereignty, but that does not diminish the importance of the U.S. as a "center of gravity." "Power among powers," he says, Europe must be. The nuclear negotiations with Iran are a good example of what Europe could achieve, he said. And with other major powers such as China and Russia, one could cooperate on important issues such as climate change without having to become uncritical.

https://www.rnd.de/politik/olaf-scholz-auf-muenchner-sicherheitskonferenz-bemuehen-um-profil-CTVLUD2TVRD4NFP6JUDPKAZ2PI.html

 

 

 

 

[Capt. Squints 176]

11 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

I know that man, I was just pointing out that either way this shit goes aggressively thousands of people are going to die. I hate that if it escalates exponentially , 1000s of thousands of people will die and it might drag a global war into the fray. Then fucking millions of people will die. might be the worst case. BUT fuck my 401k is going to take a hit 

"I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops!"

[Fudge Nuggets 19208]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Here is more worrying- Russia claiming a Ukrainian shell landed in Russia. 

 

Russia sounds like a bunch of snowflakes.

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

[Gatorubet 30263]

Dumb question: what is the Russian area called between Poland and Lithuania...other than Russia? Is there a nickname or regional name, like the Crimean Peninsula?

Its piss…..

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, Capt. Squints said:

"I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops!"

That's good advice.....

[Gatorubet 30263]

Man some of y'all are really all het up about the sanctity of Ukrainian independence...Or is it that you feel Putin is making America look weak? Are we still butthurt over the 2016 election and how he (and not Fox News) brainwashed our elders and the dumber of our old friends? Residual Cold War paranoia?
What I see is two corrupt and oligarchical nations fighting over protecting their slice of the pie. It's not like they don't share millennia of common history, or that Russia is gonna come in there and pull a Tibet / Xinjiang and attempt to erase the Ukrainians as a people. I just don't get the bloodlust. 

CR is that way —>

[956 Worldwide 34731]

Hey, who said anything about Russian troops leaving Belarus after an exercise. Seems you were hearing what you wanted to hear:

 

[South Austin 52521]

18 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

BUT fuck my 401k is going to take a hit 

This really is the worst part of all this.

[Brisketexan 105161]

17 minutes ago, South Austin said:

This really is the worst part of all this.

Well, that, and the fact that I didn't load up on defense stocks 6 months ago.

[South Austin 52521]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, that, and the fact that I didn't load up on defense stocks 6 months ago.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

 

Have no fear little buddy, they'll whip up anther little military soiree' somewhere.

[gernblansten 3197]

20 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

I know that man, I was just pointing out that either way this shit goes aggressively thousands of people are going to die. I hate that if it escalates exponentially , 1000s of thousands of people will die and it might drag a global war into the fray. Then fucking millions of people will die. might be the worst case. BUT fuck my 401k is going to take a hit 

Thousands of thousands dead? I was under the impression it was nine lives lost.

[nineliveslost 2788]

17 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

Thousands of thousands dead? I was under the impression it was nine lives lost.

I meant to type 10's of thousands, but you know, alcohol. 

and I am hanging on to the 9th life even though I almost shit that one way also... "8 lives lost with the 9th one getting right" is a little long of username 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

43 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

Thousands of thousands dead? I was under the impression it was nine lives lost.

Kidding right ?

[bernorange 8362]

6 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Kidding right ?

Look up to see it.

[nineliveslost 2788]

this shit shouldn't be so hard 

[Capt. Squints 176]

7 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That's good advice.....

I'm pre-med.

[utee94 15835]

Is this the real life?

 

 

[WhatTheBuck 28791]

7 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

this shit shouldn't be so hard 

Try eating more fiber. 

[nineliveslost 2788]

17 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Try eating more fiber. 

twice a day...shit goes through me like the Russians are about to go through the Ukranian defenses 

[WhatTheBuck 28791]

20 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Is this the real life?

 

 

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

25 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Is this the real life?

 

 

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

[Leeroy Jenkins 2409]

1 minute ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

Set up for the false flag operation.  

[staboner 4984]

10 hours ago, Capt. Squints said:

"I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, but I do say no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops!"

[staboner 4984]

dP

Edited February 20, 2022 by staboner

[CooterBrown 18015]

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

The west buys more Chinese shit than Russia. Simple economics.

[staboner 4984]

its a three way bitches!

alright i'm out

[FartingMonk 3608]

28 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

You guys are reading it wrong.  His statement is more of an underhanded slap to the US than anti Russian.  Him invoking the Minsk agreement pretty much says it all.  There is an old proverb in Chinese and that is what a lot of rhetoric the Chinese use when it comes to internal policy.  Basically it's my problems at home are my problems.  Your problems are your problems so let's stay out of it.  It's more of a rebuke to NATO and the US saying that expansion east should be stopped.  That's how I read his remarks.  

 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Is this the real life?

 

 

Look--If I were an expansionist dictator who had a country on its northern border that was lightly populated and still full of the resources that my country needed to maintain it manufacturing economy, I just think I might take notice when 70% of its military made its way half way to the other side of the world.

[Baconboy 135]

57 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

First thought on the “twist” is when the Chinese government references “territorial integrity” they’re reiterating they believe Taiwan is and should be part of China. 

[utee94 15835]

27 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You guys are reading it wrong.  His statement is more of an underhanded slap to the US than anti Russian.  Him invoking the Minsk agreement pretty much says it all.  There is an old proverb in Chinese and that is what a lot of rhetoric the Chinese use when it comes to internal policy.  Basically it's my problems at home are my problems.  Your problems are your problems so let's stay out of it.  It's more of a rebuke to NATO and the US saying that expansion east should be stopped.  That's how I read his remarks.  

 

Oh yeah, that's the way I saw it too.  I was just amused by the hilarious irony...

[FartingMonk 3608]

30 minutes ago, Baconboy said:

First thought on the “twist” is when the Chinese government references “territorial integrity” they’re reiterating they believe Taiwan is and should be part of China. 

That's where he was going with it

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

Well, Zelensky made Munich and Russia hasn't attacked, yet. See if he makes it back. 

[SquishMitten 10420]

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

Knowing very little about the finer points of all this, I’m almost certain China is not “standing up against Russia” with that comment. It’s most likely an indirect analogy to something else, and/or posturing for their/Russia’s next moves. I’m sure our leaders - as well as those of our allies - know exactly what he meant with that comment.

[WhatTheBuck 28791]

4 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

You trust China? See Hong Kong. 

[Keef 771]

7 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm confused here. This seems like China is standing up against Russia... Is there some twist that I'm not getting.

I mean, if there is literally one thing China cares about, it’s territorial integrity. 

Catching up on this thread now. All of this is obviously staged, but it won’t matter. Putin pretty clearly helped stage a bunch of apartment bombings (against Russian citizens) like 20 years ago  that was even more ham handed and most Russians still bought it. They caught FSB agents in the act and everything.  

[956 Worldwide 34731]

Let’s catch up on where things stand:

-  Lots of LPR/DPR residents herded into tent cities. Russian state media reporting Ukrainian assaults on LPR/DPR forces and alleged terror attacks on LOR/DPR buildings.

- Disinformation spiking on Ukraine across the Kremlin information ecosystem, nearly all about Ukrainian aggression 

- Unnamed sources claim that Biden was so confident because of intercepted communications to proceed with an attack. Note- in 2014 Putin used motorcycle couriers to avoid exactly this

- More movements of military equipment into battle order, lots of units popping up with a “Z” marker. Z is not a letter in Russian. Task force marker? 

- Reports from Belarus locals saying Russian troops are drunk, undisciplined, living in tents in the woods and selling diesel and other equipment. Lots of tensions between locals and non-Slav Russian troops (Caucasians, Tatars, etc.).  A reminder that Russia has maybe 25k superbly trained and disciplined Spetznatz and the rest is questionable as seen in Georgian war. Harder to keep them in the field than you think. Russian heavy equipment is also fucking up Belarus roads and other transport infrastructure. 

- Grom strategic exercises underway and yesterday was hypersonic and ICBM testing.

- More ceasefire violations along the LOC than in years, mostly Russian. Clearly provocations. 
 

 

[TejanoAtUT 15]

21 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let’s catch up on where things stand:

-  Lots of LPR/DPR residents herded into tent cities. Russian state media reporting Ukrainian assaults on LPR/DPR forces and alleged terror attacks on LOR/DPR buildings.

- Disinformation spiking on Ukraine across the Kremlin information ecosystem, nearly all about Ukrainian aggression 

- Unnamed sources claim that Biden was so confident because of intercepted communications to proceed with an attack. Note- in 2014 Putin used motorcycle couriers to avoid exactly this

- More movements of military equipment into battle order, lots of units popping up with a “Z” marker. Z is not a letter in Russian. Task force marker? 

- Reports from Belarus locals saying Russian troops are drunk, undisciplined, living in tents in the woods and selling diesel and other equipment. Lots of tensions between locals and non-Slav Russian troops (Caucasians, Tatars, etc.).  A reminder that Russia has maybe 25k superbly trained and disciplined Spetznatz and the rest is questionable as seen in Georgian war. Harder to keep them in the field than you think. Russian heavy equipment is also fucking up Belarus roads and other transport infrastructure. 

- Grom strategic exercises underway and yesterday was hypersonic and ICBM testing.

- More ceasefire violations along the LOC than in years, mostly Russian. Clearly provocations. 
 

 

 Once again, thanks for all the great info and insight you, Shady Ray, and several others have shared on this thread.

As y'all have mentioned a few times up-thread, as if on queue, Russian military activity & propaganda seems to be ramping up just as the Winter Olympics are winding down. A few weeks ago it felt like there might be a chance Putin might  be bluffing with the threat of military action to force some sort of concession or diplomatic agreement from Ukraine and Western governments. But now, I can't help but feel like Putin and Russia are more akin to a hurricane churning in the Gulf on a path to landfall, rather than an entity that can be reasoned with through diplomacy.

Personal feelings aside, what diplomatic options are realistically left on the table? It seems like everyone's positions are well staked out and no one is going to budge now.

Edited February 20, 2022 by TejanoAtUT

[956 Worldwide 34731]

13 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:

 Once again, thanks for all the great info and insight you, Shady Ray, and several others have shared on this thread.

As y'all have mentioned a few times up-thread, as if on queue, Russian military activity & propaganda seems to be ramping up just as the Winter Olympics are winding down. A few weeks ago it felt like there might be a chance Putin might  be bluffing with the threat of military action to force some sort of concession or diplomatic agreement from Ukraine and Western governments. But now, I can't help but feel like Putin and Russia are more akin to a hurricane churning in the Gulf on a path to landfall, rather than an entity that can be reasoned with through diplomacy.

Personal feelings aside, what diplomatic options are realistically left on the table? It seems like everyone's positions are well staked out and no one is going to budge now.

I’m just a message board asshole but my read is that Putin has staked out some maximalist demands publicly and is facing the choice of not getting his demands met and backing down, or not getting them met and putting a hurt on Ukraine a la Kramer.  I also think that Putin has determined that a Western leaning, non-vassal Kyiv is a core security threat.  To completely avoid any more Russian invasion, including the minimalist “peacekeepers to Donbas” scenario, I think Putin wants:

- Immediate implementation of Minsk as Russia/LPR/DPR interprets Minsk.

- A halt to all meaningful western support to Kyiv including removing Western arms that have been donated and a halt to any financial support.

These two would mean the fall of Zelenskyy and installation of a puppet in short order. Russia would demand the West stay out as broad suppression of dissent is carried out. Basically- not the Finlandization of Ukraine but the Belarusization. 

In addition to that, I think he really wants his maximalist demands met:

- Signed, sealed, delivered “NATO will never expand”

- Timetable to withdraw any non-local NATO infrastructure in the post 1997 states

Those are the big ones.  They are non-starters.  By making these demands public Putin upped the diplomatic ante and has made it hard to climb back down. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let’s catch up on where things stand:

-  Lots of LPR/DPR residents herded into tent cities. Russian state media reporting Ukrainian assaults on LPR/DPR forces and alleged terror attacks on LOR/DPR buildings.

- Disinformation spiking on Ukraine across the Kremlin information ecosystem, nearly all about Ukrainian aggression 

- Unnamed sources claim that Biden was so confident because of intercepted communications to proceed with an attack. Note- in 2014 Putin used motorcycle couriers to avoid exactly this

- More movements of military equipment into battle order, lots of units popping up with a “Z” marker. Z is not a letter in Russian. Task force marker? 

- Reports from Belarus locals saying Russian troops are drunk, undisciplined, living in tents in the woods and selling diesel and other equipment. Lots of tensions between locals and non-Slav Russian troops (Caucasians, Tatars, etc.).  A reminder that Russia has maybe 25k superbly trained and disciplined Spetznatz and the rest is questionable as seen in Georgian war. Harder to keep them in the field than you think. Russian heavy equipment is also fucking up Belarus roads and other transport infrastructure. 

- Grom strategic exercises underway and yesterday was hypersonic and ICBM testing.

- More ceasefire violations along the LOC than in years, mostly Russian. Clearly provocations. 
 

 

Probably going to have some sort of total blackout soon.

The z is probably an IFF designation.  Pretty low tech but useful.

Yeah.  That has been a huge problem with our intelligence.  Electronic eavesdropping and such hubris that we don't think HUMInt is needed anymore.