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3 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

Why do people give a fuck about this? I don't remember seeing this much hype and panic over Russia annexing Crimea. Or is this one of those moments where people are actually waking up from their foreign policy deep sleep?

/not concern trolling

Its the off-season

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14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

First Class I hope.

With a whole submarine crew no.  But the stewardess were generous with the free drinks.  CO gave us a 2 drink rule but it was more or less don't come off the plane trashed.  Now if you were smart and got United club points then you'd just rack up a bunch of points.  The guys who flew in later because of school or family stuff generally got bumped up to first class.  The airlines are pretty nice if you are military and travelling in orders.  

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11 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah.  That has been a huge problem with our intelligence.  Electronic eavesdropping and such hubris that we don't think HUMInt is needed anymore.  

I think we are getting plenty of human intel from various NATO members/Five Eyes/etc.

This time it's backed up by actual troop movements, which Putin can't conceal - we have lots of recon flights all over the areas, plenty of satellite imagery, and of course, fucking TikTok.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think we are getting plenty of human intel from various NATO members/Five Eyes/etc.

This time it's backed up by actual troop movements, which Putin can't conceal - we have lots of recon flights all over the areas, plenty of satellite imagery, and of course, fucking TikTok.

Yeah.  I wasn't talking about the European Intel agencies.  Those guys are still going heavy on recruiting assets.  The US ones not so much.  

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12 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

So the only way he could do that is exactly as you suggested: by brutal and deep suppression of dissent beforehand, which would mean that he truly has decided to completely abandon any attempt to remain connected economically to Europe, as that would eliminate the ability for fence-sitters in western europe to remain sidelined to any degree. But that level of violent suppression would start to resemble genocide given how many would be rounded up/killed, which would be seen as a completely different thing than just carnage in the Donbass/East. He would essentially be making a decision that Europe is completely written off as the more pacifist countries could no longer push for any type of compromise. This self-inflicted complete-and-total break with Europe would then put him completely dependent on Beijing, which Russia has never wanted, but would now be their only hope. If he tries to pull this, IMO it would truly be one of the worst geo-political plays of all time.

So much of their foreign policy over the post-Soviet breakup, and going back to the Peter the Great days, is about being a "great" European power, not just militarily, but economically.  Can't do that if you shut off European markets, unify the rest of Europe against you, and put yourself under Beijing's thumb.

Hell, a lot of the last few centuries of Russian foreign policy is about identifying more with Europe than Asia. 

This is damn near aggy going "fuck it, I can't compete in the Big 12, gonna hit up the SEC and try and get some respect" only to get constantly owned in the SEC.

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11 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think the break has been decided upon. There would probably be mass arrests but more than that an encouragement to leave the country for anyone who wasn’t willing to get on board with the new political order. And likely some form of formal Russian presence on the ground. Shades of Czechoslovakia in 1968 complete with pleas from political leadership not to resist “for the sake of peace.” And there’d be a time gap to allow for some sort of pretend democratic process to be implemented to get someone else in place. Putin would view it as fair play for what happened to Yanukovych. 

If Putin goes all-in on Ukraine as a whole, and then allows a bunch of Ukrainian's to escape, that's just setting up the future resistance/insurgency.

If he's decided to go the route of total conquest, I think he's going to try and prevent people from leaving, one way or another ("you leave, your family members are killed"), and he's going to try and secure the Ukrainian border to prevent arms flowing in from the West.

But I may have read too many Tom Clancy/Cold War/etc. novels in my younger years.

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So much of their foreign policy over the post-Soviet breakup, and going back to the Peter the Great days, is about being a "great" European power, not just militarily, but economically.  Can't do that if you shut off European markets, unify the rest of Europe against you, and put yourself under Beijing's thumb.

Hell, a lot of the last few centuries of Russian foreign policy is about identifying more with Europe than Asia. 

This is damn near aggy going "fuck it, I can't compete in the Big 12, gonna hit up the SEC and try and get some respect" only to get constantly owned in the SEC.

Russia has always had an identity crisis. They're at the cross roads of east, and west.  Peter, and Catherine drug them kicking, and screaming to the west.

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12 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

The z is probably an IFF designation.  Pretty low tech but useful.

 

10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

As some of the OSINT geeks I follow have pointed out, the “Z” markers are kind of haphazard and look like what you’d get if you told soldiers “paint a Z” without more context.  Could be as simple as “this vehicle has been prepped and inspected and is ready to go/operational.”

Also images of tanks with slat armor (not fitted for drills- fitted if you expect to be fired on) and units breaking down into smaller groups under forest cover, closer to the border. 

 

Rob Lee Twitter

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Bellingcat reporter Aric Toler, says his group has been monitoring Russian military symbols for the last eight years, but they have “no idea what they [the Zs] are” and haven’t seen them before. “So, assume the worst, I guess/fear,” he wrote on Twitter.

I hear ya, Aric. Weaponized zombies enter the chat in 3,2,.......

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Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

He follows the dollars/rubles/gold/power. I don't think he cares which way he goes (based on his current aggression).

I do think he thinks he's a Bond villain.

He's 69.  That's a helluva legacy to be creating at this point - I can't imagine too many Russians would be happy relying almost fully on Beijing.

Which circles back to what's been said about there having to be some kind of internal pressure the West isn't being.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He's 69.  That's a helluva legacy to be creating at this point - I can't imagine too many Russians would be happy relying almost fully on Beijing.

Which circles back to what's been said about there having to be some kind of internal pressure the West isn't being.

Yeah could be.  I've always thought he had a pretty firm grip on his power.

I saw something a couple years ago about Putin, pretty critical piece which stated the day he leaves power, he's a marked man, so he can't leave office.  That is pretty typical for most despots.

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40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So much of their foreign policy over the post-Soviet breakup, and going back to the Peter the Great days, is about being a "great" European power, not just militarily, but economically.  Can't do that if you shut off European markets, unify the rest of Europe against you, and put yourself under Beijing's thumb.

Hell, a lot of the last few centuries of Russian foreign policy is about identifying more with Europe than Asia. 

This is damn near aggy going "fuck it, I can't compete in the Big 12, gonna hit up the SEC and try and get some respect" only to get constantly owned in the SEC.

So, is this the part where aggy buys the #1 recruiting class in history, outfall be damned?

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3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

It was a kicking the can moment.  Russia went in did its thing pretty quietly and surgically.  Then when the rest of the world said something.  Russia said well, we keep this parcel and won't do anything else.  Everyone said I guess that's ok.  We are now at the biggest drawup of troops in Europe since WW2.  Russia is posturing like there is no tomorrow.  With all the resources involved it is looking to make a move or just tank billions of dollars being mean.  

Economically, it seems like they are trying to basically beat the US dollar to shit.  They have more or less sold off all US Treasury bonds and go straight into gold and other foreign currency.  They also don't want to deal with US dollars for their oil anymore.  It's a huge move that says they aren't fucking around.  Ukraine itself is just the excuse

Believe me, I remember. I started the Crimea thread on TOS and was comparing it to the annexation of the Sudetenland and was an advocate for any kind of response with real teeth. The push back was "do we really want to go to war with Russia over Crimea" and my retort then, as it is now, is that we wouldn't be going to war over a chunk of land, but showing strength to deter Putin from continuing such actions in the future. Putin openly desires the reformation of the Soviet Union. We should take him seriously. We wouldn't back him down over Crimea, so he is emboldened to take all of Ukraine. We will ask ourselves "do we really want to go to war over Ukraine?" The next line of questions would be about Latvia, Estonia, Albania, Romania, or Poland.

If Putin starts pushing West, the answer should always be to push back. The world cannot afford an emboldened Vladimir Putin, as Putin in his current form is beholden only to a collective of Oligarchs. As long has he keeps the right people within Russia happy, he has carte blanche with the rest of the world.

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7 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Believe me, I remember. I started the Crimea thread on TOS and was comparing it to the annexation of the Sudetenland and was an advocate for any kind of response with real teeth. The push back was "do we really want to go to war with Russia over Crimea" and my retort then, as it is now, is that we wouldn't be going to war over a chunk of land, but showing strength to deter Putin from continuing such actions in the future. Putin openly desires the reformation of the Soviet Union. We should take him seriously. We wouldn't back him down over Crimea, so he is emboldened to take all of Ukraine. We will ask ourselves "do we really want to go to war over Ukraine?" The next line of questions would be about Latvia, Estonia, Albania, Romania, or Poland.

If Putin starts pushing West, the answer should always be to push back. The world cannot afford an emboldened Vladimir Putin, as Putin in his current form is beholden only to a collective of Oligarchs. As long has he keeps the right people within Russia happy, he has carte blanche with the rest of the world.

I think covid pissed Putin off.  Russia economy is like 95 percent oil and gas so they took a huge lump.  Then on the world stage Russia was basically ignored.  They are a veto holding member of the UN and no one gives a flying fuck what they have to say.  A man of his pride and being shed off as basically a 3rd world sheikdom has to bruise his ego.  

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9 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think covid pissed Putin off.  Russia economy is like 95 percent oil and gas so they took a huge lump.  Then on the world stage Russia was basically ignored.  They are a veto holding member of the UN and no one gives a flying fuck what they have to say.  A man of his pride and being shed off as basically a 3rd world sheikdom has to bruise his ego.  

in soviet russia small pond fishes big

and that is all they have been for some time. their only time of being a superpower is when both sides of them collapsed because of an american ass kicking. they've been backpedaling ever since. 

i think the entire american handling here is making this small dicked putin feel bigly. i think the way this is going down is great honestly. big deal in troubled country of Ukraine. whoopdy fucking doo. just keep those nukes down and let vlad jerk off to his missile porn for the next few days. if he still invades its a bloody mess and you just let him marinate in all its glory.  

put cameras everywhere. make it horrifying. 

something something something China doesn't want to invade Taiwan any longer

profit.

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17 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think covid pissed Putin off.  Russia economy is like 95 percent oil and gas so they took a huge lump.  Then on the world stage Russia was basically ignored.  They are a veto holding member of the UN and no one gives a flying fuck what they have to say.  A man of his pride and being shed off as basically a 3rd world sheikdom has to bruise his ego.  

Wouldn't this thing start in an hour or so? The Olympics is over so he has the go-ahead from China. The military is tank based so probably day fighting is best. It is about 4:00 in Moscow. 30 minutes to get moving so 5:30 sounds about right to start fighting.

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5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Wouldn't this thing start in an hour or so? The Olympics is over so he has the go-ahead from China. The military is tank based so probably day fighting is best. It is about 4:00 in Moscow. 30 minutes to get moving so 5:30 sounds about right to start fighting.

The tanks are just there for show in my opinion.  When the missiles go flying that's the show

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1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I do think he thinks he's a Bond villain.

Would that he were. That way, right when his intricate plan seemed to be succeeding, he'd be compelled to pause, gloat, and explain how it all worked, giving Bond the necessary seconds to activate self-destruct on the Borscht Refinery.

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6 minutes ago, staboner said:

in soviet russia small pond fishes big

and that is all they have been for some time. their only time of being a superpower is when both sides of them collapsed because of an american ass kicking. they've been backpedaling ever since. 

i think the entire american handling here is making this small dicked putin feel bigly. i think the way this is going down is great honestly. big deal in troubled country of Ukraine. whoopdy fucking doo. just keep those nukes down and let vlad jerk off to his missile porn for the next few days. if he still invades its a bloody mess and you just let him marinate in all its glory.  

put cameras everywhere. make it horrifying. 

something something something China doesn't want to invade Taiwan any longer

profit.

Does Ukraine have the cajones' to just pull all their military back a bit from defensive positions, and dare the Russians to come across the border ?  Don't give em any way to say they were attacked. Of course they won't, but it would sure as hell mess with Putins little replay of 1939, and Poland.

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17 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 


- Reports from Belarus locals saying Russian troops are drunk, undisciplined, living in tents in the woods and selling diesel and other equipment. Lots of tensions between locals and non-Slav Russian troops (Caucasians, Tatars, etc.).  

 

 

Sounds like Austin....Maye we've found a solution here. Round them up from the woods and underpasses and herd them on to C-130s and give them to Putin as conscripts. Seems like they know a thing or two about how to thrive as a Russian grunt. 

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Any idea if these are top-end models with kickass fire control and Chobham armor?  The Abrams's we sold (gave) to Iraq were outfitted so we could easily kill them in war if (when) we hafta.  Or so I've read on the internet.

The Pentagon is offering to sell NATO ally Poland 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks -- considered the most advanced battle tank in the world -- as the alliance girds for a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Friday.

 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/02/18/us-will-sell-poland-tanks-bolster-nato-against-putin.html

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8 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Sounds like Austin....Maye we've found a solution here. Round them up from the woods and underpasses and herd them on to C-130s and give them to Putin as conscripts. Seems like they know a thing or two about how to thrive as a Russian grunt. 

Maybe we can trade military conscripts for Russian womenz. Seems like a fair win-winning trade.

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6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Any idea if these are top-end models with kickass fire control and Chobham armor?  The Abrams's we sold (gave) to Iraq were outfitted so we could easily kill them in war if (when) we hafta.  Or so I've read on the internet.

The Pentagon is offering to sell NATO ally Poland 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks -- considered the most advanced battle tank in the world -- as the alliance girds for a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Friday.

 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/02/18/us-will-sell-poland-tanks-bolster-nato-against-putin.html

They are always a generation or 2 behind when it goes to another country

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60454818

Quote

US President Joe Biden has agreed "in principle" to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the crisis over Ukraine.

The summit proposed by France will only take place if Russia does not invade its neighbour, the White House said. 

The talks could offer a possible diplomatic solution to one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades.

US officials say intelligence suggests Russia is ready to launch a military operation, which Moscow denies.

The proposal was announced by the French presidency after two phone calls between President Emmanuel Macron and Mr Putin, which went on for almost three hours in total.

The second exchange happened in the early hours of Monday Moscow time, and followed a 15-minute conversation Mr Macron had with Mr Biden.

Details of the possible summit will be discussed during a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, on Thursday, Mr Macron's office said.

"after two phone calls between President Emmanuel Macron and Mr Putin, which went on for almost three hours in total."

When I hear stuff like this, I don't like it, because conversations with Putin should be short.  If he's talking that long, he's trying to manipulate whoever he is talking to.

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Mongo only pawn in the geopolitical game of life… but here is my semi-informed on the impetus of the events.

Ever since Crimea and the sanctions that followed, Putin’s favorability amongst Russians has fallen significantly… as their economy has suffered. Sanctions such as The Magnitsky Act put a hurtin’ on his oligarchical cronies as well. 

This is nothing more than a land grab and a ploy to increase his popularity.
Putin has been in power 20+ years and has not expanded its territorial blueprint, save a few relatively small areas. These are crumbs, in comparison, when the USSR was in its prime. Nice legacy Vlad.

In twenty years plus he has turned the country into a dictatorship (and shares spoils with the oligarchs) and the current populace doesn’t have the Soviet nostalgia. They do not connect with the current regime. Russia has been stuck in neutral the last few years thanks to Vlad for the most part.
He needs his popularity back. Otherwise, he can’t keep his dictatorship for much longer. 
Mobilize a disproportionate amount of your military? Bold strategy Cotton. I think he overplayed his hand. 
Now, what he does next? I don’t think anyone knows, including himself. He’s not the brilliant strategist some folk tout him to be. 
He’s an opportunistic thug. Nothing more, nothing less. 
 

Edited by JerrysJheriCurl
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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60454818

"after two phone calls between President Emmanuel Macron and Mr Putin, which went on for almost three hours in total."

When I hear stuff like this, I don't like it, because conversations with Putin should be short.  If he's talking that long, he's trying to manipulate whoever he is talking to.

Why am I afraid Putin is gonna chew him into little pieces?

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8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60454818

"after two phone calls between President Emmanuel Macron and Mr Putin, which went on for almost three hours in total."

When I hear stuff like this, I don't like it, because conversations with Putin should be short.  If he's talking that long, he's trying to manipulate whoever he is talking to.

i don't know man. if history tells us anything its that these calls can certainly carry on a bit

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1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Why am I afraid Putin is gonna chew him into little pieces?

Because you haven't been paying attention?  NATO is not going to pull non-local hardware out of its member states, and they aren't going to close the door on Ukraine, even if Ukraine is currently ineligible as long as Russia keeps things stirred up. There's not going to be anything new in the call, and there will be no decisions made based on the call - at this point in time, that stuff has already been communicated one way or another, either directly or with a go-between country.  

And there's nothing on the call that Putin can say to fake anybody out and catch anybody off guard - we have the holy trinity of aerial, satellite, and TikTok reconnaissance that will let the world know the moment Russian tanks cross over.

Well, there's one fake out - he can pull all of his forces back.  But then that's fucking stupid of him, because all he's done is make Europe/US/Ukraine look powerful, spent a shit-ton of money/resources to move his people around (resources that Russia doesn't exactly have a lot of),  help unify a bunch of Ukrainians, boost the military spending of some NATO members, and make the Swedes and Finns take another look at NATO.

I don't see how Putin backs down at this point.  Everybody assumes he will invade, and NATO still isn't backing down on his demands to remove hardware or close the membership door.  He backs down and looks weak, he's deadman walking.

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I get these countries like Estonia and Poland et al feel emboldened to poke the Russian bear right now, because with a neutered Germany at their backs, that's all they have to fear, unless the Swedes get all ornery again all of a sudden.

But what about the near-future dystopian scenario of the German economy melting down over some consequence at the end of a long string of possibiliities unfolding right now that leads to the German economy melting down, bringing about the collapse of the EU and likely a global depression. After a few years of this (and with the rest of the WW2 generation dying off), Germany elects let's just say some foolishly nostalgic politicians, who sell the electorate on the idea of "Hitler was not so terrible before the war! We will pour our resources into infrastructure, and it is past time that we assume control of our own security concerns. If the world cannot any longer buy or VWs and BMWs, perhaps we should turn our attention to the rebuilding of our military. We have behaved now for 100 years. We are not your great-grandfather's Reich." And so they retool and refit the auto plants into tank, aircraft and missile facilities. The North Sea coastal ports expand their shipyards. The autobahns and rail system are upgraded. The German economy flickers back to life, and with it, the global economy to a certain extent.

Austria holds a referendum in which its people vote resoundingly in favor of a second Anschluss, conditional on their having powers in the expanded German state similar to those of Bavaria today. The Germans hold a referendum as well and it's far closer to 50-50. North Germans are still leery of putting the band back together, but that is now a very real possibility. The Austrians point out in the UN that their referendum was free and fair. 

Meanwhile this Depression has hit America hard as well. Same in France and the UK, where governments are collapsing every three or four years. All the while Germany is assuring us that they are our friends and just need to get their economy back on track and by the way danke schoen for all those years of having our backs but we are ready to kick off the training wheels now, freunden. We swear it will be different this time....

But would it?

So where would that then leave Poland, the Baltics and the Ukraine? Right back where they were in the first half of the 20th Century, caught between hell and high water.

I believe it is imperative to enforce neutrality upon Ukraine, and that goes for us as well as them. If I were world dictator, I would give Kiev something like an "Indian casino." Make it a hub for global banking by hook or by crook for oligarchs from both east and west. The hub for global banking. They've earned it.

London can reinvent itself again; plus, it wouldn't be so expensive to visit or even live there anymore. Neither Ivan nor the Jerries want to kick over the honeypot. Ukrainians enjoy an unprecedented prosperity. As the German malaise fizzles out they keep their promise after building up a military merely requisite to its position on the world stage. The Russians can get them their gas cheaper and more efficiently. And the world staggers on in peace for another ten years. 

I think we would be the ones to fuck this up somehow because the military industrial complex would find ways to prevent Congress from diverting all that money we've been sending to act as Germany's big brother to our own badly needed infrastructure upgrades.

 

Edited by MaybeACoordinator
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Deutschland absolutely wildin'.

 

And Italy starting to move into open alignment with Germany now. Rome has always silently backed the German approach to this issue, but now they are starting to step out more openly.


 

Quote

Germany prevents military training mission for Ukraine
Status: 07:20 a.m. | 
By Christoph B. Schiltz

 

The rejection of arms deliveries to Ukraine has brought Germany sharp criticism from allies. According to WELT information, the federal government continues to slow down. Therefore, the EU will reject another central request from the government in Kiev on Monday.


According to Welt information, the European Union rejects Ukraine's demand for an independent military training mission (EUTM). Instead, at the end of last week, the competent EU bodies agreed on an advisory mission under the European Peace Facility (EPF), which will initially last only one year and then be reassessed. The EU foreign ministers will officially approve and announce the measure at their meeting this Monday in Brussels.
 

In concrete terms, the decision means that in the future - contrary to what Ukraine and numerous Eastern European and Baltic states have been demanding for months - EU soldiers will not train Ukrainian officers on site in theory and practice; instead, there will only be general civil-military advice on reforming the armed forces, for example with a view to improving curricula.
 

At the end of July, the Ukrainian foreign and defense ministers had already asked for a military training mission in a confidential letter to EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell.


Since then, Kiev had repeated the demand several times, internally and publicly. The reason for the demand at the time was that Russia had already temporarily contracted up to 300,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine in the spring. However, Germany was skeptical from the beginning. Internally, Berlin argued that an independent training mission would provoke Moscow too much. With this argument, the traffic light coalition also justifies its refusal to send defensive weapons to Ukraine for self-defense.
 

Diplomats reported at the weekend that Germany and Italy in particular were against an autonomous training mission in the final negotiations. In the ranks of the Baltic and Eastern European states, the disappointment is therefore great. Only recently, Lithuania's Deputy Minister of Defense Margiris Abukevicius WELT had said: "It would be a very strong political signal of solidarity with Ukraine if the foreign ministers decided to send an autonomous military training mission to Ukraine."


According to information from WELT, against the background of increasing tensions with Russia, EU foreign ministers will also participate in a large-scale cyber exercise at the end of their meeting on Monday afternoon. Borrell writes in his invitation letter to the EU foreign ministers: "The main goal is to increase attention to the potential effects and seriousness of cyber attacks. At the same time, cooperation between operational and political levels in a large-scale cyber attack on the EU and its Member States is to be tested and solidarity in this context strengthened." According to Borrell, Europe must adapt more to new threats such as hybrid attacks. "Europe is in danger," Borrell said at the Munich Security Conference with regard to states such as Russia and China, which are reverting to the thinking of powers in the 19th century. 


Meanwhile, the group leader of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) in the EU Parliament, Manfred Weber (CSU), has called on the Western states to agree on the handling of Moscow. "I have no understanding of an appeasement policy. What ensures peace is strength, unity and unity of the West," he said.
 

After the aggression against Ukraine, Russia's President Vladimir Putin will continue. He wants to weaken the EU and the Western international community and would only be motivated by success in Ukraine. Europeans would have to think "in larger dimensions," Weber said, stressing: "In view of developments in Eastern Europe, we cannot remain in our comfort zone. We sit back too much because the US and NATO shield secures us."


https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article237029733/Deutschland-verhindert-militaerische-Ausbildungsmission-fuer-Ukraine.html

 

 

Edited by Shady Ray
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7 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

They are always a generation or 2 behind when it goes to another country

Maybe on armor.

Son participated in Operation Atlantic Resolve and we sold/ gave/ trained Poland and Nato troops on our route clearance equipment ranging from Huskys and Buffalos to robotics.  They got the same shit we use.

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Has Putin trolled Macron? Earlier the French President announced a Biden-Putin summit “in principle.”  Today a Kremlin spokesperson said its “possible but premature to discuss” and added that there was a lot of concern about tensions in Donbas. Blinken-Lavrov set to meet this week on Wednesday but only if there isn’t an invasion. 
 

On the ground— deploying 150,000 men is hard. Also notable, apparently there are both contract soldiers and conscripts in advance positions.

 

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