Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34730]

30 minutes ago, slorch said:

Committee of Soldiers Mothers on Facebook?

Now that sounds foreboding.

 

It’s a pretty old and respected organization in Russia— it was started in the 1990s to track and combat human rights violations in the Russian military, mostly conscripts drafted to fight the Chechen War.  Since then it’s been slapped with the “foreign agent” designation and lots of activities restricted. 

[52-80 19191]

eastern europe's longest game of footsie.  one of you motherfuckers hurry up and invade already, damn.

[Blotto 23560]

On 2/20/2022 at 2:28 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

Reports from Belarus locals saying Russian troops are drunk, undisciplined, living in tents in the woods and selling diesel and other equipment. Lots of tensions between locals and non-Slav Russian troops (Caucasians, Tatars, etc.).

[StruggleBus 3922]

6 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I get these countries like Estonia and Poland et al feel emboldened to poke the Russian bear right now, because with a neutered Germany at their backs, that's all they have to fear, unless the Swedes get all ornery again all of a sudden.

But what about the near-future dystopian scenario of the German economy melting down over some consequence at the end of a long string of possibiliities unfolding right now that leads to the German economy melting down, bringing about the collapse of the EU and likely a global depression. After a few years of this (and with the rest of the WW2 generation dying off), Germany elects let's just say some foolishly nostalgic politicians, who sell the electorate on the idea of "Hitler was not so terrible before the war! We will pour our resources into infrastructure, and it is past time that we assume control of our own security concerns. If the world cannot any longer buy or VWs and BMWs, perhaps we should turn our attention to the rebuilding of our military. We have behaved now for 100 years. We are not your great-grandfather's Reich." And so they retool and refit the auto plants into tank, aircraft and missile facilities. The North Sea coastal ports expand their shipyards. The autobahns and rail system are upgraded. The German economy flickers back to life, and with it, the global economy to a certain extent.

Austria holds a referendum in which its people vote resoundingly in favor of a second Anschluss, conditional on their having powers in the expanded German state similar to those of Bavaria today. The Germans hold a referendum as well and it's far closer to 50-50. North Germans are still leery of putting the band back together, but that is now a very real possibility. The Austrians point out in the UN that their referendum was free and fair. 

Meanwhile this Depression has hit America hard as well. Same in France and the UK, where governments are collapsing every three or four years. All the while Germany is assuring us that they are our friends and just need to get their economy back on track and by the way danke schoen for all those years of having our backs but we are ready to kick off the training wheels now, freunden. We swear it will be different this time....

But would it?

So where would that then leave Poland, the Baltics and the Ukraine? Right back where they were in the first half of the 20th Century, caught between hell and high water.

I believe it is imperative to enforce neutrality upon Ukraine, and that goes for us as well as them. If I were world dictator, I would give Kiev something like an "Indian casino." Make it a hub for global banking by hook or by crook for oligarchs from both east and west. The hub for global banking. They've earned it.

London can reinvent itself again; plus, it wouldn't be so expensive to visit or even live there anymore. Neither Ivan nor the Jerries want to kick over the honeypot. Ukrainians enjoy an unprecedented prosperity. As the German malaise fizzles out they keep their promise after building up a military merely requisite to its position on the world stage. The Russians can get them their gas cheaper and more efficiently. And the world staggers on in peace for another ten years. 

I think we would be the ones to fuck this up somehow because the military industrial complex would find ways to prevent Congress from diverting all that money we've been sending to act as Germany's big brother to our own badly needed infrastructure upgrades.

 

[52-80 19191]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Estonia gave some Javelins to Ukraine

 

estonian javelin:

 

[Saint Austin 745]

8 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I get these countries like Estonia and Poland et al feel emboldened to poke the Russian bear right now, because with a neutered Germany at their backs, that's all they have to fear, unless the Swedes get all ornery again all of a sudden.

But what about the near-future dystopian scenario of the German economy melting down over some consequence at the end of a long string of possibiliities unfolding right now that leads to the German economy melting down, bringing about the collapse of the EU and likely a global depression. After a few years of this (and with the rest of the WW2 generation dying off), Germany elects let's just say some foolishly nostalgic politicians, who sell the electorate on the idea of "Hitler was not so terrible before the war! We will pour our resources into infrastructure, and it is past time that we assume control of our own security concerns. If the world cannot any longer buy or VWs and BMWs, perhaps we should turn our attention to the rebuilding of our military. We have behaved now for 100 years. We are not your great-grandfather's Reich." And so they retool and refit the auto plants into tank, aircraft and missile facilities. The North Sea coastal ports expand their shipyards. The autobahns and rail system are upgraded. The German economy flickers back to life, and with it, the global economy to a certain extent.

Austria holds a referendum in which its people vote resoundingly in favor of a second Anschluss, conditional on their having powers in the expanded German state similar to those of Bavaria today. The Germans hold a referendum as well and it's far closer to 50-50. North Germans are still leery of putting the band back together, but that is now a very real possibility. The Austrians point out in the UN that their referendum was free and fair. 

Meanwhile this Depression has hit America hard as well. Same in France and the UK, where governments are collapsing every three or four years. All the while Germany is assuring us that they are our friends and just need to get their economy back on track and by the way danke schoen for all those years of having our backs but we are ready to kick off the training wheels now, freunden. We swear it will be different this time....

But would it?

So where would that then leave Poland, the Baltics and the Ukraine? Right back where they were in the first half of the 20th Century, caught between hell and high water.

I believe it is imperative to enforce neutrality upon Ukraine, and that goes for us as well as them. If I were world dictator, I would give Kiev something like an "Indian casino." Make it a hub for global banking by hook or by crook for oligarchs from both east and west. The hub for global banking. They've earned it.

London can reinvent itself again; plus, it wouldn't be so expensive to visit or even live there anymore. Neither Ivan nor the Jerries want to kick over the honeypot. Ukrainians enjoy an unprecedented prosperity. As the German malaise fizzles out they keep their promise after building up a military merely requisite to its position on the world stage. The Russians can get them their gas cheaper and more efficiently. And the world staggers on in peace for another ten years. 

I think we would be the ones to fuck this up somehow because the military industrial complex would find ways to prevent Congress from diverting all that money we've been sending to act as Germany's big brother to our own badly needed infrastructure upgrades.

 

This at least sounds better than that awful Red Dawn remake 

[Trey3216 15349]

5 hours ago, slorch said:

Committee of Soldiers Mothers on Facebook?

Now that sounds foreboding.

 

She was a Soldiers’ Mothers’ sister’s wife’s former roommate, and a friend on Facebook.   

[Parliament 14264]

10 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

estonian javelin:

 

I know they post this stuff on social media so EVERYONE knows what's up, but at the same time, it comes across a rather glib.  

[52-80 19191]

9 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I know they post this stuff on social media so EVERYONE knows what's up, but at the same time, it comes across a rather glib.  

[FartingMonk 3608]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/politics/us-letter-russia-ukraine-kill-list/index.html

@InkaUtexas those Bolivian caves are looking real nice.  Just don't have a female secretary who buzzes people in.

[Orange&White 5528]

I have a Russian coworker who I don't actually have any crossover with at all, and rarely ever see. He's been in the US for about 20 years.

I saw him this morning and asked him what was old Vlady up to?

His response: "He is protecting Russia and the Russian people".

I wonder if this is the same sentiment that the people still in Russia are feeling?

 

[texastough 1129]

NATO should just invite Russia to join. They'd never see that coming.

[FartingMonk 3608]

17 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I have a Russian coworker who I don't actually have any crossover with at all, and rarely ever see. He's been in the US for about 20 years.

I saw him this morning and asked him what was old Vlady up to?

His response: "He is protecting Russia and the Russian people".

I wonder if this is the same sentiment that the people still in Russia are feeling?

 

Isn't there some crazy stat that only 20 percent of the Russian men survived WW2.  Might be that trigger

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

21 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Isn't there some crazy stat that only 20 percent of the Russian men survived WW2.  Might be that trigger

I believe it was 27 million that died, and almost all were men. I think it was closer to 40% of their male population that perished in WW2.

Of course, these are not concise historical estimations, but they are pretty close. 

But, yeah, it pretty much decimated their male population. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[Shady Ray 1633]

33 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I have a Russian coworker who I don't actually have any crossover with at all, and rarely ever see. He's been in the US for about 20 years.

I saw him this morning and asked him what was old Vlady up to?

His response: "He is protecting Russia and the Russian people".

I wonder if this is the same sentiment that the people still in Russia are feeling?

 

I have mentioned it before way upthread, but I have three direct reports in Moscow, all of whom are between 40 and 50, well-educated, well-connected, with plenty of years working abroad, including plenty of time in the West. They are the proto-typical Muscovites who are to a large degree open to western ideas and deeper European integration, and they regularly consume English-language media. And even with all that, all of them feel the exact same way as your co-worker. 
 

They definitely see Putin’s faults, and they don’t support him blindly on every issue, particularly when it comes to domestic issues. But when it comes to foreign affairs, they’ve got a real issue with NATO (and the U.S. in general), and they don’t see the Alliance as being purely defensive or innocent. 

Ultimately, we don’t have the benefit of solid public opinion barometers in Russia. Levada Center is the only one that is considered “independent” by Western standards, and Putin’s treatment of Levada by forcing it to register as a foreign agent would indicate that it truly is not under his thumb.

So, with that caveat, here’s the most recent stuff from Levada:

 

 

 

 

https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/02/18/approval-of-institutions-the-state-of-affairs-in-the-country-trust-in-politicians-2/

 

 

And a broader thought on his polling: When US analysts put on their “Putin-Understander” hats and say, “His support is collapsing at home, so he has to start a risky war abroad”, it is generally pretty flimsy political analysis, because it really isn’t true. Sure, his numbers move in ebbs and flows, but support has been over 60% for 20 years…and without anything even close to a threat (and nooooo, Navalny is not a threat), I don’t see him making decisions to go to war based on a fear of losing popular support. In fact, rushing into an unpopular war would be the biggest risk to dragging those numbers down, so the idea that this is a "Wag the Dog" driven move is a silly one. Increasing pensions in the provinces (which Russia is somewhat in a position to do economically at the moment) or conducting certain other domestic reforms are generally enough to buy him enough support to get back over that 65% number). Now, he certainly creates media spin to keep his base content…and he is certainly spinning things now to prepare them for war. But that is a very different thing than fearing that he will lose his claim on power due to sliding poll numbers.

[bangkok 89]

as an interested outsider, i've done a fair amount of reading and research on this over the last several weeks from different sides, in a meager attempt to have an informed opinion.

this shit's going down, unfortunately. the costs will be immense.

seems we have solid intel within the russian government and they're not bluffing.

i hope we've got plans in place to confront this, of course heavy sanctions are expected, but any outside the box approaches or ideas - i wonder whats on the table, behind the scenes. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

long thread transcribing some kind of bizarre public cabinet meeting. 
 

[The Dog 44066]

31 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

They definitely see Putin’s faults, and they don’t support him blindly on every issue, particularly when it comes to domestic issues. But when it comes to foreign affairs, they’ve got a real issue with NATO (and the U.S. in general), and they don’t see the Alliance as being purely defensive or innocent. 



 

The question is, how big of a concern is this really for Russia, or is it a red herring being used by Putin as a proxy for expansion?

Putin says that he wants the US/NATO to commit to never admitting Ukraine as a member of NATO. Will he also commit to relinquishing all Russian claims to Ukraine (or something similar where they agree never to invade as long as we hold up our end of the bargain)?

The US is unwilling to commit to that because it's clear we think Putin is full of shit, so it's up to him to show some level of good faith. Claiming you are withdrawing troops then sending the invade order isn't that. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Supposedly Putin is going to speak soon and recognize Donbas independence  

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

4 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Supposedly Putin is going to speak soon and recognize Donbas independence  

 

[bangkok 89]

it's such a ridiculous pretext.

[Enchubben 5510]

45 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

They definitely see Putin’s faults, and they don’t support him blindly on every issue, particularly when it comes to domestic issues. But when it comes to foreign affairs, they’ve got a real issue with NATO (and the U.S. in general), and they don’t see the Alliance as being purely defensive or innocent. 

Ultimately, we don’t have the benefit of solid public opinion barometers in Russia. Levada Center is the only one that is considered “independent” by Western standards, and Putin’s treatment of Levada by forcing it to register as a foreign agent would indicate that it truly is not under his thumb.

What is their logic behind having an issue with NATO and considering it not solely defensive/innocent?

[Auto Driller 2506]

So Putin considers NATO presence on his borders an existential threat. His solution is to forcibly annex a neutral country, thereby placing NATO on his border?

This guy just seems like an asshole. I hope the Ukrainians are ready to fight and that we are ready to support them.

[TejanoAtUT 15]

13 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

All according to Putin's plan, it seems. So now, the "independent" Donetsk and Luhansk governments will order any Ukrainian presence to leave their territory, and if not they'll be forcibly removed, with ""assistance" from Russia. Does that sound about right?

[Orange&White 5528]

11 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

What is their logic behind having an issue with NATO and considering it not solely defensive/innocent?

My coworker just explained it like this:

If Ukraine becomes part of NATO, and then Ukraine tries to take back Crimea, Russia will have to fight Ukraine to stop them from taking Russian land, and as soon as Russia fights a NATO Ukraine, NATO will come for Russia.

[Orange&White 5528]

DP

Edited February 21, 2022 by Orange&White

[GringoSalado 1651]

This is why I don't like talking about politics, because that ^ sounds regarded.

 

 

edit: nvm, but the whole "we had to leave the BigXII because Texas was going to leave and stop playing us so we're leaving and won't play them" actually makes more sense

Edited February 21, 2022 by GringoSalado

[Pescado_Rojo 19426]

1 minute ago, Orange&White said:

My coworker just explained it like this:

If Ukraine becomes part of NATO, and then Ukraine tries to take back Crimea, Russia will have to fight Ukraine to stop them from taking Russian land, and as soon as Russia fights a NATO Ukraine, NATO will come for Russia.

Seems like a problem that could have been avoided by not taking Crimea in the first place

[bangkok 89]

very delicate situation.

i'd like to see a unified response beyond sanctions.

well, fuck, no, i wouldn't really like to see it - i just think a strong response here, in unison, is justified. 

putin is treading on thin ice as it stands.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Putin speaking now and is just slouching in his chair. Giving 0 fucks.

[Enchubben 5510]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Seems like a problem that could have been avoided by not taking Crimea in the first place

My thought exactly.  It's like an older kid at school stealing your Nintendo Switch, then getting mad that you would make friends with an even bigger bully because he wont be able to steal anymore and may one day decide you want your Nintendo back. 

[Gap03 3308]

5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Putin speaking now and is just slouching in his chair. Giving 0 fucks.

Where are you watching?  The CNN translator is terrible.  Better than Fox News, I suppose, which is just carrying it Russian.  

[Captainant 27682]

3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

My thought exactly.  It's like an older kid at school stealing your Nintendo Switch, then getting mad that you would make friends with an even bigger bully because he wont be able to steal anymore and may one day decide you want your Nintendo back. 

Putin is a kleptocrat. All of his wealth is stolen from other oligarchs and he weilds his power to protect his power above all else. People like that HATE the mere suggestion of oversight or some force that would call them on it.

Ukraine being led by anyone but a corrupt despotic president is a threat to Putin. There's a reason why he took Crimea after the 2014 revolution

[Bevo 13582]

8 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

My thought exactly.  It's like an older kid at school stealing your Nintendo Switch, then getting mad that you would make friends with an even bigger bully because he wont be able to steal anymore and may one day decide you want your Nintendo back. 

Sorry for your loss?

Edited February 21, 2022 by Bevo

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

 

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

Putin’s rhetoric, and interpretation of history, is honestly one of the more horrific things I’ve seen. He seems to want to rebuild the Soviet Union. 

[Enchubben 5510]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Putin is a kleptocrat. All of his wealth is stolen from other oligarchs and he weilds his power to protect his power above all else. People like that HATE the mere suggestion of oversight or some force that would call them on it.

Ukraine being led by anyone but a corrupt despotic president is a threat to Putin. There's a reason why he took Crimea after the 2014 revolution

That i understand for sure. It's the mental gymnastics of others that believe NATO is the issue/aggressor that perplexes me. Unless you are attacking civilians with chemical weapons, planning for global domination, or harboring international terrorists, seems like your neighbor being a NATO nation would be a non-factor. 

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Sorry for your loss?

and fuck you eddie. If I ever see you again, I'm taking my Gameboy back bitch. 

[Wally Fairway 5569]

Ahhhh - so if I recognize breakaway regions of  Luhansk and Donetsk, then it isn't an invasion. It is only reinforcing the Russian partners.

So Crimea was there first bite into Ukraine, these are next. 2026 will be the third course in the reintegration of USSR celebratory dinner.

Amirite?

[Hefeweizen 5328]

So COVID broke Putin’s brain too apparently.  Because he is launching this in a way guaranteed to get all his neighbors to want to join nato.  Besides having no one to talk sense into him, does he really think this play works long term?  It seems insane.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

I have mentioned it before way upthread, but I have three direct reports in Moscow, all of whom are between 40 and 50, well-educated, well-connected, with plenty of years working abroad, including plenty of time in the West. They are the proto-typical Muscovites who are to a large degree open to western ideas and deeper European integration, and they regularly consume English-language media. And even with all that, all of them feel the exact same way as your co-worker. 
 

They definitely see Putin’s faults, and they don’t support him blindly on every issue, particularly when it comes to domestic issues. But when it comes to foreign affairs, they’ve got a real issue with NATO (and the U.S. in general), and they don’t see the Alliance as being purely defensive or innocent. 

Ultimately, we don’t have the benefit of solid public opinion barometers in Russia. Levada Center is the only one that is considered “independent” by Western standards, and Putin’s treatment of Levada by forcing it to register as a foreign agent would indicate that it truly is not under his thumb.

So, with that caveat, here’s the most recent stuff from Levada:

 

 

 

 

https://www.levada.ru/en/2022/02/18/approval-of-institutions-the-state-of-affairs-in-the-country-trust-in-politicians-2/

 

 

And a broader thought on his polling: When US analysts put on their “Putin-Understander” hats and say, “His support is collapsing at home, so he has to start a risky war abroad”, it is generally pretty flimsy political analysis, because it really isn’t true. Sure, his numbers move in ebbs and flows, but support has been over 60% for 20 years…and without anything even close to a threat (and nooooo, Navalny is not a threat), I don’t see him making decisions to go to war based on a fear of losing popular support. In fact, rushing into an unpopular war would be the biggest risk to dragging those numbers down, so the idea that this is a "Wag the Dog" driven move is a silly one. Increasing pensions in the provinces (which Russia is somewhat in a position to do economically at the moment) or conducting certain other domestic reforms are generally enough to buy him enough support to get back over that 65% number). Now, he certainly creates media spin to keep his base content…and he is certainly spinning things now to prepare them for war. But that is a very different thing than fearing that he will lose his claim on power due to sliding poll numbers.

Levada also released in October 2021, that only 53% of Russians trusted Putin. 
Putin “starting a risky war abroad” to get more support. Not likely.

Putin gearing up and going for a land grab a la Crimea? Very likely. He didn’t get much, if any, push back before. Might as well test the waters again. 
Recognize DPR and LPR and call them part of Russia. If Ukraine does anything about it, the messaging he’s doing what is best for/protecting Russians living in Ukraine. Furthermore, stating Ukraine doesn’t even really exist. It’s just Russia and has always been historically. 
I’m protecting Russia and Russians! 
Get your nationalism on.

And the bump in his support at home is the cherry on top.

Edited February 21, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[Hefeweizen 5328]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

Ahhhh - so if I recognize breakaway regions of  Luhansk and Donetsk, then it isn't an invasion. It is only reinforcing the Russian partners.

So Crimea was there first bite into Ukraine, these are next. 2026 will be the third course in the reintegration of USSR celebratory dinner.

Amirite?

Pretty much their argument.  It is so stupid it’s laughable.

[Bevo 13582]

2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

and fuck you eddie. If I ever see you again, I'm taking my Gameboy back bitch. 

Whatev, beav.

[Zonahorn 8079]

The Baltic states joining NATO was the smartest thing they have ever done.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Putin's simplistic plan

Step 1: Recognize those areas as independent

Step 2: Help those areas when their "leaders" request assistance

Step 3: Annex areas

 

[InkaUtexas 26007]

2 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The Baltic states joining NATO was the smartest thing they have ever done.

Now lets get the Finns to sign up. 

[bolverk 29694]

4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Ahhhh - so if I recognize breakaway regions of  Luhansk and Donetsk, then it isn't an invasion. It is only reinforcing the Russian partners.

So Crimea was there first bite into Ukraine, these are next. 2026 will be the third course in the reintegration of USSR celebratory dinner.

Amirite?

 

2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Pretty much their argument.  It is so stupid it’s laughable.

Friendly reminder too that the Kremlin has been handing out Russian passports to people living in Donbas since last spring. This has been the play all along.

[InkaUtexas 26007]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Putin's simplistic plan

Step 1: Recognize those areas as independent

Step 2: Help those areas when their "leaders" request assistance

Step 3: Annex areas

 

Step 2.A, some odd massacre/provocation to justify. 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

 

Friendly reminder too that the Kremlin has been handing out Russian passports to people living in Donbas since last spring. This has been the play all along.

He’s been handing them out like candy. 

[bolverk 29694]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Step 2.A, some odd massacre/provocation to justify. 

Part of that, I think, is going to be the issue on the de facto or de jure borders of these newly "independent" entities with the separatists not controlling all of those two oblasts. Of course, we all know what Putin will claim therefore he can claim that Ukraine is occupying their territories and giving at least one justification for intervention.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Step 2.A, some odd massacre/provocation to justify. 

Absolutely.

Honesty, it doesn't seem like Kiev had full control of these areas for quite some time. Years? They can take much of the blame for not exercising control of their own country. I realize this is easier said than done with Russia helping the separatists but you got to take care of your own problems.