Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Parliament 14263]

Just now, TexasEd said:

You could find similar places in US cities but...

Why does every discussion on Surly Horns turn into a bitch session about College Station?  Let it go already.

[Nicole44 22067]

31 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Not our choice to make - German sovereignty and all that

Damnit! 

[BigDHornfan 6549]

1 hour ago, hersh95 said:

Any clue what her limit is on schnitzengruben?

 

12.  She is not from Havana.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

3 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

These sanctions are the reason Putin met with Xi.  He can finance his debt with China going forward.

The message about Ukraine being a part of Russia is the same language China uses about Taiwan being a part of China.

Russia must be in a bad way to willingly take actions to become a vassal of China.

 

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

China is NOT happy at all about this.

Help me out, @The Dog, because I really don't understand this take.

1) As TexasEd observes, Russia is essentially cutting off its economic ties with Western Europe.  The alternative markets for Russian exports--which are almost exclusively raw materials--are limited.  Presumably Russia could sell to South Korea and Japan, but I somehow don't think they'll be eager buyers.  So that leaves China.

China makes a lot of sense.  It's a nearby, yet surprisingly undeveloped, market for Russian exports.  

But if China is the only available buyer, don't expect the Chinese to give a fair deal.  They're going to buy at a deep discount.  Which is great news for China.  

So I just don't see how China wouldn't be at least quietly happy about this.

2) We can talk about the differences between Marxism-Leninism and Maoism if you want, but one thing on which I think there is no delineation is the view on international class struggle manifesting itself in war between capitalist countries.

In the years before World War II, the Soviet Union's entire foreign policy was to sit back, avoid conflict with any of the capitalist powers, try to encourage conflict between the capitalist powers where possible, and opportunistically use that conflict to expand where possible.  Sean McMeekin's most recent book goes through a history of Soviet work over twenty years to encourage a war between the capitalist powers, which Stalin envisioned would leave the Soviet Union to pick up the pieces.

Maoist doctrine isn't any different.  And for purposes here, China would view Russia as just another capitalist power.  From a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist point of view, the capitalist powers are going to engage in wars, which will disillusion their populaces and ultimately open the way for China to expand and spread Communist "democracy" in Asia.

Not only does this not make China unhappy--I'd suspect that in a few decades there will be a history written about China's unseen hand guiding at least some of this.

[Parliament 14263]

Great point about China bending Russia over the barrel.  Chinese businesses are notorious for being rough negotiators and outright thieves.  And when Russia has no choice, they'll only b worse.

[elfenix 34328]

5 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

 

Any clue on what kind of aircraft we're dealing with here? Obviously a very suspect flight path, I'm guessing military but which military?

https://www.flightradar24.com/SPRAM/2ae75151

Edit: Super high, super slow - must be a drone?

RQ-4:

 

[Nicole44 22067]

Like have y’all not read The Bear and the Dragon by Tom Clancy? Or Red Storm Rising?  I mean damn!

[The Dog 44066]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Help me out, @The Dog, because I really don't understand this take.

 

It's partially about Taiwan. Putin's fuckery makes their situation with Taiwan a lot more complicated. 

There's no grand plan here. Putin is over his skis and his little jaunt to Beijing at the start of the Olympics makes Xi look bad now. 

Now will they find a way to take advantage of the situation? Sure. But it doesn't mean they wouldn't have preferred Putin kept his dick in his pants. Just MHO.

[squeegeedegg 723]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

I had never heard the term 'struggle session' until reading a sci-fi book last night. Now it shows up again. Odd.

Three Body Problem?

[atomheartbevo 89735]

3 hours ago, MoJames said:

So what happened in the past 24 hours?

Russia moved troops // Germany said no to pipeline // USA said sanctions // Italy blew up a volcano

What else?

Here's a summary from a few pages ago:

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52530]

Putin to Ukraine pres: “we’re getting the land back together”

[Bigbend1812 12927]

6 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Like have y’all not read The Bear and the Dragon by Tom Clancy? Or Red Storm Rising?  I mean damn!

Been stuck on this for awhile. 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It's partially about Taiwan. Putin's fuckery makes their situation with Taiwan a lot more complicated. 

There's no grand plan here. Putin is over his skis and his little jaunt to Beijing at the start of the Olympics makes Xi look bad now. 

Now will they find a way to take advantage of the situation? Sure. But it doesn't mean they wouldn't have preferred Putin kept his dick in his pants. Just MHO.

I don't see how this complicates the Taiwan issue at all.  It's actually kind of a nice way for China to see how the West reacts to an irredentist/revanchist military incursion without having to put their own asses on the line. 

If the West doesn't react with sufficient steadfastness, then it'll be easy for Beijing to take that as a green light to invade Taiwan.  If the West does react harshly, at least China knows the cost and can accurately weigh that any any perceived benefit.

But regardless--they're going to be able to get all of Siberia's wealth without having to incur any of the costs of a hostile action against Russia to get it.  Russia's just going to have to give it to them.

[atomheartbevo 89735]

17 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Help me out, @The Dog, because I really don't understand this take.

1) As TexasEd observes, Russia is essentially cutting off its economic ties with Western Europe.  The alternative markets for Russian exports--which are almost exclusively raw materials--are limited.  Presumably Russia could sell to South Korea and Japan, but I somehow don't think they'll be eager buyers.  So that leaves China.

China makes a lot of sense.  It's a nearby, yet surprisingly undeveloped, market for Russian exports.  

But if China is the only available buyer, don't expect the Chinese to give a fair deal.  They're going to buy at a deep discount.  Which is great news for China.  

So I just don't see how China wouldn't be at least quietly happy about this.

China has things planned out for years.

China is a trading partner with Ukraine, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars - that may not seem like much, but  China is also trading partner with other countries in the region as well.

Russia is potentially disrupting trade between other countries and China.  China can't be too happy with that.

Russian banks/individuals/etc. are potentially having assets/finances frozen or shut out of being used in trade with China.   China can't be too happy with that.

Having Russia under their thumb in the long run can be good financially, sure, but again, long run.  

When Putin dies/is assassinated, what happens to Russia then?  What if it turns into North Korea on a larger scale, with a shit-ton more nukes?  What if it becomes incredibly unstable when a power play between various leaders breaks out, and the government goes even farther downhill?  Who will control the nukes?  The very things we feared about nukes in the former Soviet republics in the 90s will be in play on a larger scale at that point.

There's a lot here that can go wrong.

[FartingMonk 3608]

I think the China angle is over played.  They are going to reap the benefit of cheap Russian gas and they get to see what world response to an outright invasion of a country would lead to but China and Russia historically hate each other.  Goes all the way back to Mao and the two sides just not looking alike.  It really doesn't move the stick on Taiwan because China has essentially done what Russia is done short of invasion.  The only thing Russia is doing is playing guneia pig for China but it.isnfoolish to assume China has any power over Russia.  This is solely a Russian play

[Bevo 13579]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't see how this complicates the Taiwan issue at all.  It's actually kind of a nice way for China to see how the West reacts to an irredentist/revanchist military incursion without having to put their own asses on the line. 

If the West doesn't react with sufficient steadfastness, then it'll be easy for Beijing to take that as a green light to invade Taiwan.  If the West does react harshly, at least China knows the cost and can accurately weigh that any any perceived benefit.

But regardless--they're going to be able to get all of Siberia's wealth without having to incur any of the costs of a hostile action against Russia to get it.  Russia's just going to have to give it to them.

Watch out for Mongolia. Those guys are assholes.

[InkaUtexas 26007]

Love this! 

 

[Gatorubet 30254]

Watch out for Mongolia. Those guys are assholes.

Their beef is pretty solid.

[Royalfan5 2354]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Russia stole the Massey Ferguson combine from us too.  Aholes!

Sometime in the 1970's, we launched a new satellite capable of getting images that estimate farm crop output.  We calculated they could barely feed themselves.  Think about that.  A nation with millions of acres of rich farmland (especially their Ukrainian holdings) that struggled to produce enough.  Also this tidbit:

 The Soviet Union's agricultural output throughout the 1970s fluctuated significantly, with growth ranging between -5.3 and 16.1 percent, before narrowing in the 1980s to a range of 6.2 and -2.3 percent. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the state controlled approximately 97 percent of arable land. However, the sector's inefficiency meant that roughly a quarter of all agricultural output came from the three percent of farmland that was privately owned. Agricultural inefficiency was a persistent problem throughout the Soviet Union's history. Food shortages or famines were relatively common, despite the Soviet Union's size, the abundance of arable land, and the disproportionate amount invested by the state into this sector.

Our version of Free Market Capitalism is flawed, no doubt.  But we produce plenty of food for ourselves.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237004/change-in-agricultural-output-in-ussr-cold-war/#:~:text=The Soviet Union's agricultural output,97 percent of arable land.

To be fair, the Massey was a Canadian design, and ripping off 50 series Massey's was enough punishment in and of itself. 

[Brisketexan 105161]

No CR -- to discuss, go to the CR.  But the immediate past president of the United States just made public remarks on Putin's invasion of Ukraine.  They are important, and worth discussion as they are absolutely influential in this situation, but again -- to discuss, go to the CR.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

China has things planned out for years.

China is a trading partner with Ukraine, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars - that may not seem like much, but  China is also trading partner with other countries in the region as well.

Russia is potentially disrupting trade between other countries and China.  China can't be too happy with that.

Russian banks/individuals/etc. are potentially having assets/finances frozen or shut out of being used in trade with China.   China can't be too happy with that.

Having Russia under their thumb in the long run can be good financially, sure, but again, long run.  

When Putin dies/is assassinated, what happens to Russia then?  What if it turns into North Korea on a larger scale, with a shit-ton more nukes?  What if it becomes incredibly unstable when a power play between various leaders breaks out, and the government goes even farther downhill?  Who will control the nukes?  The very things we feared about nukes in the former Soviet republics in the 90s will be in play on a larger scale at that point.

There's a lot here that can go wrong.

I think the "China has things planned out for years" is overplayed Western myth-making.

Sure--China makes a lot of long-term capital investments.  But those investments are based on assumptions that may or may not bear out.  China realizes this, and recognizes that some of what they're building will turn out to be white elephants.

And that's really the difference between the systems. It's not that capitalist economies don't make long-term investments.  It's just that they are less tolerant of white-elephantization.  So our investments are much less speculative (e.g., we're not building new airport terminals in Lusaka).  But we also don't have investors taking a loss when nobody wants to fly to Lusaka and the new Zambian government repudiates the debt.

[Guest Lobo]

U.S. Presidents' comments, past or present, about Russia/former USSR have nothing to do with anything.  Ban Brisket, I won't be a party to this.  Boo this man!

[irishtexan 11522]

I think we can all agree that one good thing that may come out of this is a potential re-boot of The Americans on FX. 

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I think that Annalena could benefit from a lengthy summit with Brisketexan to discuss matters of energy policy and geopolitics, so that I could help her craft a better and more forward-thinking strategy.  Perhaps we could hold it at a nice mountain cabin in the Alps.  A place with a nice fireplace and a hot tub.  I think we could accomplish a great deal.

Here's a photo of her saying "why not?  I think that's a great idea!"

I caught a fish this big.

[956 Worldwide 34728]

Zelenskyy is mobilizing reserves.  
 

Remember when Russian troops were withdrawing and that was good news? I ‘member. 
 

 

[Parliament 14263]

15 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think the China angle is over played.  They are going to reap the benefit of cheap Russian gas and they get to see what world response to an outright invasion of a country would lead to but China and Russia historically hate each other.  Goes all the way back to Mao and the two sides just not looking alike.  It really doesn't move the stick on Taiwan because China has essentially done what Russia is done short of invasion.  The only thing Russia is doing is playing guneia pig for China but it.isnfoolish to assume China has any power over Russia.  This is solely a Russian play

Seems kinda racist.

But you're right.  Soviet Communism and Chinese Communism clashed hard.  Hard enough for a border skirmish or two.  Russia kinda pooped on China in the 50's.  The Chinese seem to have long memories and you know that'll come into play.

[InkaUtexas 26007]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Zelenskyy is mobilizing reserves.  
 

Remember when Russian troops were withdrawing and that was good news? I ‘member. 
 

 

Someone needs to guard places so active troops can use all those javelins. 

[Bevo 13579]

2 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I caught a fish this big.

In the one hand I have Bob Stoop's bag, in the other whale balls.

[Parliament 14263]

In practical terms, will Ukrainian soldiers be able to get close enough to Russian tanks to use those Javelins?  I honestly don't know.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Parliament

[NeverMarryAStripper 21909]

If they just stand there the Russian tanks will come to them

[InkaUtexas 26007]

Just now, Parliament said:

In practical terms, will Ukrainian soldiers be able to get close enough to Russian tanks to use them?  I honestly don't know.

I think that depends on how much they get hammered by artillery. That could force them to remain in their trenches. 

[Parliament 14263]

How good is Russian night vision technology?  Do all the soldiers have NVD's and such?

[FartingMonk 3608]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

How good is Russian night vision technology?  Do all the soldiers have NVD's and such?

I'm gonna say their special forces all have really good NVGs.  A lot of it is stolen from us that we left behind or our allies left behind.  Regular units probably have some sort of capacity in each unit.  

[FartingMonk 3608]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think that depends on how much they get hammered by artillery. That could force them to remain in their trenches. 

Yep.  That artillery fire is going to be key.  MLRS, cruise missiles, air strikes, artillery.  You want to demoralize the shit out of the Ukrainians and I hear nothing is scarier than hearing incoming artillery.  The last thing you want is Ukraine taking out a column of armor and emboldening the rest of the country.  You want to crush their spirit and make them think living under Vlad is better than being shelled.

[Brisketexan 105161]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think that depends on how much they get hammered by artillery. That could force them to remain in their trenches. 

Isn't the only viable Ukrainian strategy one that eschews "front lines" and trenches?  In other words, put up SOME frontal fight.....but otherwise, you're deploying guys on motorcycles and shit to fly around and wreak havoc on the much less nimble Russian armor and vehicles?  Pop over a hill or through the woods on your dirt bike, blow up a tank, be driving away before the javelin even hits.

And of course, in urban environments.....take out armor from every possible hiding space.  Russians bring tanks into a city, start popping out of every corner, rooftop, and manhole and blowing up tanks.

[Royalfan5 2354]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Isn't the only viable Ukrainian strategy one that eschews "front lines" and trenches?  In other words, put up SOME frontal fight.....but otherwise, you're deploying guys on motorcycles and shit to fly around and wreak havoc on the much less nimble Russian armor and vehicles?  Pop over a hill or through the woods on your dirt bike, blow up a tank, be driving away before the javelin even hits.

And of course, in urban environments.....take out armor from every possible hiding space.  Russians bring tanks into a city, start popping out of every corner, rooftop, and manhole and blowing up tanks.

Maybe they'll even drunk drive the tanks into town single file like they did to help the Chechen's shooting out. 

[InkaUtexas 26007]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Isn't the only viable Ukrainian strategy one that eschews "front lines" and trenches?  In other words, put up SOME frontal fight.....but otherwise, you're deploying guys on motorcycles and shit to fly around and wreak havoc on the much less nimble Russian armor and vehicles?  Pop over a hill or through the woods on your dirt bike, blow up a tank, be driving away before the javelin even hits.

And of course, in urban environments.....take out armor from every possible hiding space.  Russians bring tanks into a city, start popping out of every corner, rooftop, and manhole and blowing up tanks.

I think he circles cities vs. going in. He knows what happened to the Russians in Grozny. They were slaughtered and ended up just leveling the city. Serbs never tried to take Sarajevo. It amazes me how touch the civilians in Sarajevo were. Hammered day and night and went on with their life as normal as they could.

[Captainant 27682]

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

In practical terms, will Ukrainian soldiers be able to get close enough to Russian tanks to use those Javelins?  I honestly don't know.

wikipedia says their range is 2500m, so nominally one mile. They're definitely outranged by artillery, but the idea is to use urban warfare tactics with javelins in this situation I'd think. Hunker down and try to not get artillery barraged to death, and then stick it to em once the shelling stops.

But yeesh, the russians know to how to BIG BOI artillery. It's gonna be hell.

[InkaUtexas 26007]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

wikipedia says their range is 2500m, so nominally one mile. They're definitely outranged by artillery, but the idea is to use urban warfare tactics with javelins in this situation I'd think. Hunker down and try to not get artillery barraged to death, and then stick it to em once the shelling stops.

But yeesh, the russians know to how to BIG BOI artillery. It's gonna be hell.

And they have a ton of these. 

The Main Battle Tank and Light Anti-tank Weapon (MBT LAW), also known as the NLAW, is a joint British and Swedish short-range fire-and-forget anti-tank missile system. Designed for use by infantry, the MBT LAW is shoulder fired and disposable, firing once before being disposed of.

Effective firing range: 20 to 600 m (66 to 1,969 ft)

Maximum firing range: 1,000 m (3,300 ft)

Muzzle velocity: 40 m/s (130 ft/s) to subsonic

[BabaYaga 15302]

17 minutes ago, Parliament said:

In practical terms, will Ukrainian soldiers be able to get close enough to Russian tanks to use those Javelins?  I honestly don't know.

Javelin's without any kind of support is problematic.  If the Russians role in with tanks as possible targets but have air cover in the way of close support helicopters, etc., the first few Javelins might hit their mark, but the helicopters will turn anyone else into hamburger put a quick end to that line of thinking. 

Plus what's the flight time of the missile?  10-15 seconds?  That's an eternity with close support overhead.  They're not the silver bullet make them out to be.  

[Bevo 13579]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

wikipedia says their range is 2500m, so nominally one mile. They're definitely outranged by artillery, but the idea is to use urban warfare tactics with javelins in this situation I'd think. Hunker down and try to not get artillery barraged to death, and then stick it to em once the shelling stops.

But yeesh, the russians know to how to BIG BOI artillery. It's gonna be hell.

Yeah, but the people are pretty tough. A friend of mine was doing an internship in Kiev in 1990 when they still had bread lines. He waited in line and bought his stuff and told the lady to keep the change, she instead went up and down the line trying to get him change and wouldn't let him leave until she was able to pay him back.

[BabaYaga 15302]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And they have a ton of these. 

The Main Battle Tank and Light Anti-tank Weapon (MBT LAW), also known as the NLAW, is a joint British and Swedish short-range fire-and-forget anti-tank missile system. Designed for use by infantry, the MBT LAW is shoulder fired and disposable, firing once before being disposed of.

Effective firing range: 20 to 600 m (66 to 1,969 ft)

Maximum firing range: 1,000 m (3,300 ft)

Muzzle velocity: 40 m/s (130 ft/s) to subsonic

Those will be much more effective in urban fighting that the Javelin.  Just hope they know how to use effectively.  

[InkaUtexas 26007]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Javelin's without any kind of support is problematic.  If the Russians role in with tanks as possible targets but have air cover in the way of close support helicopters, etc., the first few Javelins might hit their mark, but the helicopters will turn anyone else into hamburger put a quick end to that line of thinking. 

Plus what's the flight time of the missile?  10-15 seconds?  That's an eternity with close support overhead.  They're not the silver bullet make them out to be.  

Fire teams augmented by Stingers would provide some cover. But then they are exposed to the artillery. As said, Russians love their heavy shit. 

[elfenix 34328]

so first you javelin the choppers then you javelin the tanks then you get back on your motorbike and ride as fast as you can through the forest. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by elfenix

[FartingMonk 3608]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Javelin's without any kind of support is problematic.  If the Russians role in with tanks as possible targets but have air cover in the way of close support helicopters, etc., the first few Javelins might hit their mark, but the helicopters will turn anyone else into hamburger put a quick end to that line of thinking. 

Plus what's the flight time of the missile?  10-15 seconds?  That's an eternity with close support overhead.  They're not the silver bullet make them out to be.  

If you want dead Russian helicopter pilots that's how you get them.  There are probably just as much portable AA as there are javelins in Ukraine right now.  

[Gap03 3308]

35 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

I think we can all agree that one good thing that may come out of this is a potential re-boot of The Americans on FX. 

Only if Keri Russell comes back ...

[InkaUtexas 26007]

I still think Putin goes to the Dnieper River. He then creates a buffer for the incorporated areas. Line the river with the Javelins if need be, but don's lose them to the Russians. 

[elfenix 34328]

also i wonder if ukraine can drone the russians like the azerbaijanis did to the armenians?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19120]

The New York Times has a good live feed on everything going on right now.  I am not sure if it is behind the paywall (I have a subscription), so if you want to see something, let me know and I can post it.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/22/world/russia-ukraine-biden-putin

[956 Worldwide 34728]

Just now, elfenix said:

also i wonder if ukraine can drone the russians like the azerbaijanis did to the armenians?

Ukraine has been on a max-out the cards spree for those same Turkish drones.