Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[The Dog 44071]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He ain't stopping at Ukraine.  He may bide his time for a while, but he's going after more.  The Baltics are 100% in jeapardy, because Putin's next bet is that NATO won't actually follow through on its commitment.....which is the big win he's going for.  Put NATO to the test, and make it fail.  That's a monumental win for Putin.

 

I know that's what he's said  (to basically restore the Warsaw Pact) but I think Belarus and Moldova are the next ones. Not sure he cares that much about the Baltics. Hell, Belarus might be better off under the Russians considering what a disaster Lukashenko has been. 

Keep in mind NATO has already buffed their presence in the Baltics and other eastern NATO states. 

What bugs me is the "best case scenario" - if it can be called that - might be Russia getting bogged down in a quagmire in Ukraine and not being able to do much else. That sucks but that's where we seem to be.

Edited February 23, 2022 by The Dog

[Leeroy Jenkins 2409]

1 hour ago, rpspeed said:

 

Happy hunting Alisa!

Alisa, 38, a media relations specialist, poses with a gun for a picture at her home near Kyiv, Ukraine, February 19, 2022. Picture taken February 19, 2022. REUTERS/Antonio Bronic

 

[52-80 19205]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I really don't think Putin wants that at all and I'm not sure this is going as he expected. He's still hell bent on invading Ukraine (at least the break away territories) but I'm not even sure he's all ready to try to conquer all of Ukraine. It's a BIG country and I don't think they have the manpower to conquer and hold much of that territory without really undermining their overall security. 

I honestly don't know what we should be doing right now. Hope those in charge have much better information that what we do and show good judgment. 

Nobody's got a read on Putin's true motive, do they?  Russia economy seems decently stable (?) so unlike WW2 this initiation isn't an act of desperation/inevitability.  Is he just carving 'back' as much of Ukraine as possible to serve his own Hubris, as a a master provocateur.  Don't imagine he truly wants all-out full-blown war.

[Brisketexan 105175]

Just now, The Dog said:

I know that's what he's said  but I think Belarus and Moldova are the next ones. Not sure he cares that much about the Baltics. Hell, Belarus might be better off under the Russians considering what a disaster Lukashenko has been. 

He doesn't have to make any moves in Belarus.  It's a full-on Russian client state -- Putin accomplished that in this current exercise without most people even noticing.  No need to invade and occupy a state that has already accepted its role as your bitch.

Moldova is a real possibility.  But I think he wants to try what he thinks is a low-risk, high-reward gambit to kill NATO.  Invade Lithuania.  If NATO responds, retreat and claim victory because you were only protecting ethnic Russians there, and now that NATO has stepped up and is presumably taking care of its obligation to protect ALL residents of Lithuania, including ethnic Russians, there is no further need for Russian protection, and we hand off our security role to the NATO forces now on the ground.  Alternatively, NATO balks, and you have killed NATO.

It's the play I expect.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

10 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I know that's what he's said  (to basically restore the Warsaw Pact) but I think Belarus and Moldova are the next ones. Not sure he cares that much about the Baltics. Hell, Belarus might be better off under the Russians considering what a disaster Lukashenko has been. 

Keep in mind NATO has already buffed their presence in the Baltics and other eastern NATO states. 

What bugs me is the "best case scenario" - if it can be called that - might be Russia getting bogged down in a quagmire in Ukraine and not being able to do much else. That sucks but that's where we seem to be.

Belarus is already doing whatever he wants. Moldova with Transnistria asking for help would be next if he wants to expand West.

 

Edit: Personally, I think controlling your average Moldovan would be harder than your average Ukrainian with the language and culture differences.

Edited February 23, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[JesusSweatDuck 17784]

2 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

 

That movie is so fucking good.  Fucked up, but good

[The Dog 44071]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Alternatively, NATO balks, and you have killed NATO.

It's the play I expect.

You're going to have to elaborate on this, because all of the actions up to now have indicated otherwise. 

[Captainant 27689]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Nobody's got a read on Putin's true motive, do they?  Russia economy seems decently stable (?) so unlike WW2 this initiation isn't an act of desperation/inevitability.  Is he just carving 'back' as much of Ukraine as possible to serve his own Hubris, as a a master provocateur.  Don't imagine he truly wants all-out full-blown war.

Hard disagree on Russia's economy. They export almost exclusively raw goods and have next to no industry aside from crime. Their GDP is barely bigger than Brazil. This is absolutely an act of desperation, the Russian economy will not grow without conquering. 

[Goofyboy 3293]

Hell, there's been so many generators bought in the last year that each Texan has his own personal grid.

I’m in line. Supposedly June.

[Brisketexan 105175]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

You're going to have to elaborate on this, because all of the actions up to now have indicated otherwise. 

Do I think NATO would step up?  Probably.....but there's at least a material chance that it won't.  That's what I mean by low risk, high reward play.  A Russian invasion that pulls back quickly if it meets any NATO resistance is a low-risk venture (NATO forces won't strike across the border if Russian forces quickly retreat).  On the other hand, a Russian invasion that sees NATO fail to respond?  That's a Super Bowl win right there.

[Parliament 14270]

12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Nobody's got a read on Putin's true motive, do they?  Russia economy seems decently stable (?) so unlike WW2 this initiation isn't an act of desperation/inevitability.  Is he just carving 'back' as much of Ukraine as possible to serve his own Hubris, as a a master provocateur.  Don't imagine he truly wants all-out full-blown war.

You could say their real instability is demographic.  It's been posted a few times here that Russia is literally DYING.  Low fertility and zero immigration.  This is a last gasp for them.  Viewed that way they look even more dangerous.

ETA

I agree with BT.  If Putin sees NATO being soft on him re: his Ukrainian adventures, he might test a NATO member outright.  Go after...Hungary.  Doesn't matter who.  Rattle the saber, harass them and see what NATO does.  Worst case for him he gets his hand burnt.

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Parliament

[The Dog 44071]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Do I think NATO would step up?  Probably.....but there's at least a material chance that it won't.  That's what I mean by low risk, high reward play.  A Russian invasion that pulls back quickly if it meets any NATO resistance is a low-risk venture (NATO forces won't strike across the border if Russian forces quickly retreat).  On the other hand, a Russian invasion that sees NATO fail to respond?  That's a Super Bowl win right there.

I get your sentiment but I think it's based on the fact that Russia hasn't invaded YET. 

I think everything changes once they do. Once they expose themselves as an aggressor power everyone will arm themselves to the teeth as a deterrent. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Just now, Parliament said:

You could say their real instability is demographic.  It's been posted a few times here that Russia is literally DYING.  Low fertility and zero immigration.  This is a last gasp for them.  Viewed that way they look even more dangerous.

 

M

There are 10 million Mexicans that see an opportunity to open up taquerias in Russia. They need to set up some incentive packages.

[Brisketexan 105175]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

I get your sentiment but I think it's based on the fact that Russia hasn't invaded YET. 

I think everything changes once they do. Once they expose themselves as an aggressor power everyone will arm themselves to the teeth as a deterrent. 

Or they won't.  This is what we watch and see.

In case you hadn't realized, I am quite pessimistic about the state of global affairs.  So far, all evidence seems to be unfolding to support my Eeyore-ish view.  The parallels to more than one period in history are too numerous to ignore.  And historically, this path ends in bloodshed.  A lot of it.

[DDD Dad 14344]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Do I think NATO would step up?  Probably.....but there's at least a material chance that it won't.  That's what I mean by low risk, high reward play.  A Russian invasion that pulls back quickly if it meets any NATO resistance is a low-risk venture (NATO forces won't strike across the border if Russian forces quickly retreat).  On the other hand, a Russian invasion that sees NATO fail to respond?  That's a Super Bowl win right there.

I hate that you've been right about many things over the years.  I think you're way off here, and I really hope I'm right.

[Parliament 14270]

Leaving the immigration politics aside, you could say America needs those Mexicans.  Our fertility rate is right at/below replacement. To avoid the fate of rhe rest of the developed world, we need immigration. 

[The Dog 44071]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Leaving the immigration politics aside, you could say America needs those Mexicans. 

Especially soccer players who refuse to play for El Tri.

[Brisketexan 105175]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Leaving the immigration politics aside, you could say America needs those Mexicans.  Our fertility rate is right at/below replacement. To avoid the fate of rhe rest of the developed world, we need immigration. 

Russia needs it even more.  But nobody wants to move to Russia.  So Russia will move Russia to them.

The politics of demographics is getting dicey worldwide right now.  Lots of danger and potential collapse/flashpoints.

[TejanoAtUT 15]

I'm not part of the Surly Flight Tracking team, but the Global Hawk that's been monitoring Ukraine seems to REALLY be pacing back and forth along Eastern Ukraine tonight.

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

What is the possibility that we or others throw some missiles at bridges/infrastructure in Ukraine to slow Russia advancement? 

[52-80 19205]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

You could say their real instability is demographic.  It's been posted a few times here that Russia is literally DYING.  Low fertility and zero immigration.  This is a last gasp for them.  Viewed that way they look even more dangerous.

Per World Bank, their current fertility rate, and the trend of the rate, mirrors that of the region. 

GDP per capital is meh, but GDP adjusted for purchasing power is good. 

These could be reasons for doing wild shit, but I don't see them as anomalous enough to be THE motivation

 

[Brothahorn 10087]

[MillerEP 30492]

I'm completely hawkish on this one. I don't like bullies. Fuck Russia, I hope this backfires on Putin. Semper Fi.

Edited February 23, 2022 by MillerEP

[TXSG8R 3362]

1 hour ago, texastough said:

That sounds crazy to me. Why not?

[atomheartbevo 89755]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think I mentioned, but Putin not using the patronymic “Sergei Yevgenyevich” in favor of just “Sergei” is a pretty big show of disrespect, especially as even earlier in the clip you hear Naryshkin using the polite form.  The context is important. If this was unfilmed, dead of night in the sit room with empty coffee cups, then saying “What do you think, Sergei” is a totally different thing and would express familiarity and a desire for unvarnished thoughts. This is…not that. 
 

This thing was filmed well in advance. Easy enough for Putin to say “Gotdammit Sergei you’re flubbing your lines and look like a scared kid. Let’s do this take again.” 

It was filmed way in advance - thanks to the joys of modern videography, people were clearly able to see the times on their wristwatches.

[clapclapclap 9000]

On 2/21/2022 at 3:18 PM, Brothahorn said:

 

Ha, yeah while the mini-giraffe is king, I had never before noticed the actual dogs playing actual poker.

An all-time top 10 commercial.  It's genius.

[BabaYaga 15302]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

You could say their real instability is demographic.  It's been posted a few times here that Russia is literally DYING.  Low fertility and zero immigration.  This is a last gasp for them.  Viewed that way they look even more dangerous.

 

Nor is their army in any way capable of going toe to toe with NATO.  

Not sure about the source, but I have heard this more than once that VERY young (18yr old, etc).  That Covid has been spreading through the units.  Lack of equipment, lots of moderately trained people, etc.  Everyone talks about numbers of the soldiers.  It's their quality that I find suspect and doubt that they are in any way ready to take on NATO with any direct action.  

We shall see, but I hope not. 

[BabaYaga 15302]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It was filmed way in advance - thanks to the joys of modern videography, people were clearly able to see the times on their wristwatches.

The internet is still second only to one thing in being undefeated.  

[F250 28798]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

I also decided after that trip if a company needs to send me somewhere that requires force protection I'm just not gonna go.  

This. I used work for an Israeli security company that would often do business in some funky ass places. My rule was I am good with Europe and North America and that is about it.

I would occasionally get a call "Hey would you be willing to go to some African country you didn't know existed for a month?"

My response every time.

 

[BabaYaga 15302]

5 minutes ago, F250 said:

This. I used work for an Israeli security company that would often do business in some funky ass places. My rule was I am good with Europe and North America and that is about it.

I would occasionally get a call "Hey would you be willing to go to some African country you didn't know existed for a month?"

My response every time.

 

I hear Mexico City is nice this time of year

[JesusSweatDuck 17784]

45 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:

I'm not part of the Surly Flight Tracking team, but the Global Hawk that's been monitoring Ukraine seems to REALLY be pacing back and forth along Eastern Ukraine tonight.

Surprised they're still running in transponder on mode

[Hefeweizen 5328]

6 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Surprised they're still running in transponder on mode

I think they're daring the Russkies to shoot it down.

And I have completely done a 180 on NATO's stance, I think Brisket is completely wrong about his read on the Baltics.  Putin ventures across the border there and he's got full on war.

 

Turkey (also NATO member) is waiting in the wings to fuck Russia up as well. 

 

There are a lot of countries with scores to settle with Russia if Putin gets bogged down in Ukraine.  It could get very interesting (in an ugly way) if he goes in for the quick win and gets stuck.

[TXSG8R 3362]

4 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Surprised they're still running in transponder on mode

If they were running dark Russia could shoot it down and claim they were being attacked by an unknown plane. They are also letting Russia know that their shit is on blast.  
 

It also provides great cover for something that is running dark. 

[atomheartbevo 89755]

4 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

If they were running dark Russia could shoot it down and claim they were being attacked by an unknown plane. They are also letting Russia know that their shit is on blast.  
 

It also provides great cover for something that is running dark. 

These things.  This is completely by design.

[956 Worldwide 34736]

59 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:

I'm not part of the Surly Flight Tracking team, but the Global Hawk that's been monitoring Ukraine seems to REALLY be pacing back and forth along Eastern Ukraine tonight.

Nick Saban is all but signed as HC of Shakhtar Donetsk and Terry is just scoping real estate. 

[InkaUtexas 26017]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

How does that work like a pay for play thing?  We used tigerSwan.  They got us in and out of Venezuela safe but I thought it was a bit over the top but I'm not in the protection business.  I also decided after that trip if a company needs to send me somewhere that requires force protection I'm just not gonna go.  

TigerSwan is a good outfit from what I have seen. This group works with insurance companies and also go straight cash. Owner made a mint (think LSU 1%) in Afghanistan so is also cool with sometimes just helping. 

But I understand what you mean. I am supposed to go to Somalia in and out this summer and not real happy with the security company that was selected. But fuck it, still going to go. We should drink beer.

[InkaUtexas 26017]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

The life of a drone operator has got to all kinds of weird.  You get bussed two hours to a facility outside of Vegas.  Fly your drone for the day.  Get bussed back to Vegas.  So essentially you could do a hellfire strike and kill a terrorist half a world away and be able to go to the dice table at the Bellagio before rush hour traffic.

This scared the shit out of me and my group in Southern Afghanistan. Hung over drone pilot sees some civilian vehicles parked in Helmand. Fuck it, lets hell fire them. I used to put a burnt orange UT flag on my car figuring only an aggy would shoot at me. No one did, so I have that going for me. 

[956 Worldwide 34736]

1 hour ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

What is the possibility that we or others throw some missiles at bridges/infrastructure in Ukraine to slow Russia advancement? 

Zero and zero. Look, POTUS has been super clear about this.  There is no way that  the U.S. is getting into a shooting war with Russian regular forces. We spent the entire Cold War making sure that never happened. 

[BabaYaga 15302]

8 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I think they're daring the Russkies to shoot it down.

And I have completely done a 180 on NATO's stance, I think Brisket is completely wrong about his read on the Baltics.  Putin ventures across the border there and he's got full on war.

 

Turkey (also NATO member) is waiting in the wings to fuck Russia up as well. 

 

There are a lot of countries with scores to settle with Russia if Putin gets bogged down in Ukraine.  It could get very interesting (in an ugly way) if he goes in for the quick win and gets stuck.

That is the gamble.  If Putin overextends, he's got his hands full on multiple fronts that he cannot support

[BabaYaga 15302]

Interdasting

 

[atomheartbevo 89755]

1 hour ago, texastough said:

So, I can understand why we and other NATO countries said they would not send troops/weapons to Ukraine. But, what happens if the Russians do start killing lots of civilians? I would assume other countries would get involved then (for instance, UK/Poland at a minimum).

None of the NATO members are going to fight Russia regardless of genocide/slaughter of civilians. 

With that said, the EU and plenty of other nations still have a lot of major cards to play in terms of export/imports, and completely isolating Russia from the West.  I posted an article earlier mentioning it (I don't remember if it was NYT or WSJ or Business Insider), but basically even the US just by itself hasn't fully exerted its economic power - we could easily enact incredibly strict export/import controls that would shut Russian industries off from a lot of what they need.  We appear to be holding on to those cards to see how things play out.

I think @Ghost of LL mentioned it, but the Russians aren't exactly producing a lot of high-tech stuff on their own - they are beholden to the West/China for a lot of stuff.

And a lot of these countries have a lot of grievances with Russia.

And yes, China could turn around and try and meet a lot of the demand that Russia/Russian industries would then have, but that puts Russia squarely under Beijing's thumb, and they will damn sure make Russia pay for it.

Hell, China could join in with the West and completely wreck Putin/Russia.  How much does Xi like Putin?

[BabaYaga 15302]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

None of the NATO members are going to fight Russia regardless of genocide/slaughter of civilians. 

With that said, the EU and plenty of other nations still have a lot of major cards to play in terms of export/imports, and completely isolating Russia from the West.  I posted an article earlier mentioning it (I don't remember if it was NYT or WSJ or Business Insider), but basically even the US just by itself hasn't fully exerted its economic power - we could easily enact incredibly strict export/import controls that would shut Russian industries off from a lot of what they need.  We appear to be holding on to those cards to see how things play out.

I think @Ghost of LL mentioned it, but the Russians aren't exactly producing a lot of high-tech stuff on their own - they are beholden to the West/China for a lot of stuff.

And a lot of these countries have a lot of grievances with Russia.

And yes, China could turn around and try and meet a lot of the demand that Russia/Russian industries would then have, but that puts Russia squarely under Beijing's thumb, and they will damn sure make Russia pay for it.

Hell, China could join in with the West and completely wreck Putin/Russia.  How much does Xi like Putin?

The problem with this is that is pushes Russia more and more towards China.  We need them pulled further apart - easy to say, harder to facilitate, I know.

So how is this done?  The two parties are not ideologically aligned, but in a mutual advancement in hurting the West, they agree to be bedfellows it seems?

[Brisketexan 105175]

15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I think they're daring the Russkies to shoot it down.

And I have completely done a 180 on NATO's stance, I think Brisket is completely wrong about his read on the Baltics.  Putin ventures across the border there and he's got full on war.

 

Turkey (also NATO member) is waiting in the wings to fuck Russia up as well. 

 

There are a lot of countries with scores to settle with Russia if Putin gets bogged down in Ukraine.  It could get very interesting (in an ugly way) if he goes in for the quick win and gets stuck.

I would very much prefer your take to be correct over mine.  And to be fair, I think that the odds are good that NATO WOULD respond to a Russian incursion into the Baltics.  But there is a chance they wouldn't, and it's a low-risk move for Putin.  Here's his play:

1 -- make up fake stories about ethnic Russians in eastern Lithuania being harmed by some bullshit or another.

2 -- demand that Lithuania and NATO protect them.   While NATO and Lithuania wonder "WTF are you even talking about?", claim that they are failing to protect ethnic Russians, and mother Russia will not abandon them.

3 -- send in the armor to the ethnic Russian areas as a "peacekeeping force." and tell NATO it best not respond, this is a protection detail.

4 -- if NATO responds with force, bug out and say that it's because NATO is doing what you demanded in item 2, we are glad that NATO stepped up.  If NATO does not respond, then you just defanged NATO at a very low cost.

Low risk.  High reward.

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

That is the gamble.  If Putin overextends, he's got his hands full on multiple fronts that he cannot support

It is the gamble.  I hope he loses.  I really do.  I would cackle with glee if Turkish-supplied kamikaze drones start blowing the shit out of Russian vehicles.

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Interdasting

 

This is exactly the kind of backfire that can hurt Putin.  I hope there is more of it.  He needs to be pushed into a retreat by an overwhelming set of circumstances.

[956 Worldwide 34736]

As we are on war watch, I want to also flag that we went ahead and lifted the national security waiver on Nord Stream 2 AG and sanctioned the German parent company of the pipeline.  We waited till after Germany spiked it with bureaucracy. 
 

I did a long explainer one how CAATSA sanctions work up thread but the long and short is that the pipeline is dead and now buried. 

[immamac 42877]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The problem with this is that is pushes Russia more and more towards China.  We need them pulled further apart - easy to say, harder to facilitate, I know.

So how is this done?  The two parties are not ideologically aligned, but in a mutual advancement in hurting the West, they agree to be bedfellows it seems?

China will go to war with Russia if they pull the shit they pull with anyone else. The best thing we can do is push them together.

I don't understand all this WW3 or larger than Ukraine or NATO vs Russia talk. If Russia fucks with NATO they die a swift death - no one is on their side and this wouldn't be a world war. China would stay the fuck out of it and they definitely wouldn't be like "oh this is the time to go into Taiwan" because that is stupid as fuck.

This is very sad and I hope that Ukraine fights hard and successfully defends their country through the first wave or invasion - if they do that the world will take care of the rest over time. If they get steamrolled then Russia gets to pretty much just delay it's inevitable self destruction another decade or so.

[956 Worldwide 34736]

Back to war watch: Zelenskyy is speaking Russian on TV and telling the people of Russia that Ukraine didn’t attack Donetsk, that Putin refuses to take a call, and that Ukraine doesn’t want war.

So yeah, that’s where we are at on this now. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

TigerSwan is a good outfit from what I have seen. This group works with insurance companies and also go straight cash. Owner made a mint (think LSU 1%) in Afghanistan so is also cool with sometimes just helping. 

But I understand what you mean. I am supposed to go to Somalia in and out this summer and not real happy with the security company that was selected. But fuck it, still going to go. We should drink beer.

Yeah.  It was weird because Venezuela doesn't allow security companies to be armed.  They didn't show any weapons overtly but I'm sure they had something.  And then some big ass dudes walking around with a 5 foot 10 180 lb Chinese dude and a 300 lb white dude from Georgia had to have raised a few eye brows.  They had these cool little beacon things they gave us.  It was a press in case of emergency.  It honed your position and started recording. Never had to use it though.

[atomheartbevo 89755]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

He ain't stopping at Ukraine.  He may bide his time for a while, but he's going after more.  The Baltics are 100% in jeapardy, because Putin's next bet is that NATO won't actually follow through on its commitment.....which is the big win he's going for.  Put NATO to the test, and make it fail.  That's a monumental win for Putin.

Oh for fuck's sake Brisket, regardless of our shared obsession/restraining orders concerning Sela Ward, you are way off on this.

NATO has been beefing up in Eastern Europe and Putin has not only been helping to unify NATO to the point where even Germany was willing to give up NS2, but he's giving people in Finland and Sweden a reason to take another look at NATO.

But more importantly:  Putin could barely take and hold the entirety of Ukraine with what he has right now, and you expect us to believe that he could start rolling up other countries when Ukraine wouldn't even be pacified?

Have you looked at a map lately? Even if the Baltic states weren't in NATO, he simply doesn't have the forces needed for such a large theater. Putting aside the fact that NATO has a larger (and far more modernized) military force, Russia doesn't have the infrastructure to support such a front - I have friends who have worked in Russia in recent years, and when you get away from the large cities, the infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.) are shit.  The Russians can't move their forces around as easily as we can.

And NATO's naval forces would take advantage of the Baltic Sea and just rain down hell on Russian forces.  

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hell, China could join in with the West and completely wreck Putin/Russia.  How much does Xi like Putin?

Very little, but they benefit from Russia’s destabilizing effects on the US. They also don’t have too many anti-west partners that can impart the influence that Russia can. Sure, the NORKs and Iran really hate us, but in the grand scheme of things their sphere of influence is dogshit.  I don’t think Xi will stick his neck out for Putin, but I also don’t see him joining in anything that hurts Russia either. A strongly worded letter would be about the worst I would expect even for something like genocide. 

[staboner 4984]

51 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Nor is their army in any way capable of going toe to toe with NATO.  

Not sure about the source, but I have heard this more than once that VERY young (18yr old, etc).  That Covid has been spreading through the units.  Lack of equipment, lots of moderately trained people, etc.  Everyone talks about numbers of the soldiers.  It's their quality that I find suspect and doubt that they are in any way ready to take on NATO with any direct action.  

We shall see, but I hope not. 

yeah man. i think the fear is death from the big guns and then rape and pillage from the drunk kids that come a following. i can't even imagine the fucking anxiety of having the drunk and disorderly russian army bearing down on me. 

a sound guerilla strategy will defeat the drunks. its the big weapons that will kill lots of people. as we know