Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34738]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

None of the NATO members are going to fight Russia regardless of genocide/slaughter of civilians. 

With that said, the EU and plenty of other nations still have a lot of major cards to play in terms of export/imports, and completely isolating Russia from the West.  I posted an article earlier mentioning it (I don't remember if it was NYT or WSJ or Business Insider), but basically even the US just by itself hasn't fully exerted its economic power - we could easily enact incredibly strict export/import controls that would shut Russian industries off from a lot of what they need.  We appear to be holding on to those cards to see how things play out.

I think @Ghost of LL mentioned it, but the Russians aren't exactly producing a lot of high-tech stuff on their own - they are beholden to the West/China for a lot of stuff.

And a lot of these countries have a lot of grievances with Russia.

And yes, China could turn around and try and meet a lot of the demand that Russia/Russian industries would then have, but that puts Russia squarely under Beijing's thumb, and they will damn sure make Russia pay for it.

Hell, China could join in with the West and completely wreck Putin/Russia.  How much does Xi like Putin?

China and Russia are in an uneasy alliance because their strategic goals align— they want a world order where the United States is weaker as well as the agreed upon rules and norms constrain their behavior both externally and internally. 
 

You can play around the edges but the fact is that they both perceive us as their biggest problem and want us to be weaker. Republican wet dreams of “maybe we can use Russia against China” are just that— absent a reset in one or the other country’s internal dynamics equal or greater to 1989-1992 in the USSSR. 

We need clarity on these strategic questions and not wishcasting.  I agree fully that in the longer term China is our biggest threat and competitor but that does not mean we can delude ourselves into Russia not being a serious and persistent threat that’s not going away either. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[BachelorTrek 3054]

28 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I think they're daring the Russkies to shoot it down.

And I have completely done a 180 on NATO's stance, I think Brisket is completely wrong about his read on the Baltics.  Putin ventures across the border there and he's got full on war.

 

Turkey (also NATO member) is waiting in the wings to fuck Russia up as well. 

 

There are a lot of countries with scores to settle with Russia if Putin gets bogged down in Ukraine.  It could get very interesting (in an ugly way) if he goes in for the quick win and gets stuck.

Finland would really fuck the ruskies' shit up if they took Karelia back while 75+% of the ruskie's conventional forces is around Ukraine, since Putin didn't plan for, nor can they sustain, a 2-front (or even more fronts!) war.

Lots of angry neighbors with old scores and new scores to settle could finally come back to bite the ruskies in the ASS.

 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

11 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The problem with this is that is pushes Russia more and more towards China.  We need them pulled further apart - easy to say, harder to facilitate, I know.

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

China will go to war with Russia if they pull the shit they pull with anyone else. The best thing we can do is push them together.

3 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Very little, but they benefit from Russia’s destabilizing effects on the US. They also don’t have too many anti-west partners that can impart the influence that Russia can. Sure, the NORKs and Iran really hate us, but in the grand scheme of things their sphere of influence is dogshit.  I don’t think Xi will stick his neck out for Putin, but I also don’t see him joining in anything that hurts Russia either. A strongly worded letter would be about the worst I would expect even for something like genocide. 

Given Putin's age, I kind of want China to have Russia under its thumb.  If Putin dropped dead tomorrow, he hasn't exactly surrounded himself with the kind of people that can really keep things together like he has, since they would be potential rivals to him while he's alive.

If only because of the nukes, I'd like to think the Russian government would stay together after Putin's death, but I don't see how a bunch of folks don't start jockeying/fighting over who ultimately ends up in charge.

 

[956 Worldwide 34738]

6 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Very little, but they benefit from Russia’s destabilizing effects on the US. They also don’t have too many anti-west partners that can impart the influence that Russia can. Sure, the NORKs and Iran really hate us, but in the grand scheme of things their sphere of influence is dogshit.  I don’t think Xi will stick his neck out for Putin, but I also don’t see him joining in anything that hurts Russia either. A strongly worded letter would be about the worst I would expect even for something like genocide. 

China is committing genocide or something close to it right now.  China believes genocide is a question of internal politics and state sovereignty and will not criticize another country for doing what it is doing. 

[BabaYaga 15302]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh for fuck's sake Brisket, regardless of our shared obsession/restraining orders concerning Sela Ward, you are way off on this.

NATO has been beefing up in Eastern Europe and Putin has not only been helping to unify NATO to the point where even Germany was willing to give up NS2, but he's giving people in Finland and Sweden a reason to take another look at NATO.

But more importantly:  Putin could barely take and hold the entirety of Ukraine with what he has right now, and you expect us to believe that he could start rolling up other countries when Ukraine wouldn't even be pacified?

Have you looked at a map lately? Even if the Baltic states weren't in NATO, he simply doesn't have the forces needed for such a large theater. Putting aside the fact that NATO has a larger (and far more modernized) military force, Russia doesn't have the infrastructure to support such a front - I have friends who have worked in Russia in recent years, and when you get away from the large cities, the infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.) are shit.  The Russians can't move their forces around as easily as we can.

And NATO's naval forces would take advantage of the Baltic Sea and just rain down hell on Russian forces.  

This.  And again, it's not the size, it's the quality (what she said.....)

Their army is not equipped or prepared to go toe to toe with a modern NATO force and multiple fronts just exacerbates this.  This isn't the days of Napoleon and zee' Germans trudging through Russian mud and freezing winters.  Standoff conventional weapons can decimate an already crumbling infrastructure and choke out their population centers.  Follow the money (which is the play that I think this is).  You think the rising billionaire class will sit idly by and see their empires fall to Putin's hubris?  There'd be civil war before a world war.  

[InkaUtexas 26017]

it is 5:15, US Central time. Both Russia and OU suck.

China is our long term threat. But we can mess them up in a few areas. Food and Fuel to name two. Russia can give them fuel, but I don't see any long term plans floating around to do this. I don't see Russia going into Finland, but I could see them playing the "we are here to protect our people" game in the Baltics and Moldovia. And yes, NATO would fuck them up until Vladimito loses it and perhaps launches a few ICBM's. 

Whereas China is OU, Russia=aggy. 

[Brisketexan 105180]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh for fuck's sake Brisket, regardless of our shared obsession/restraining orders concerning Sela Ward, you are way off on this.

NATO has been beefing up in Eastern Europe and Putin has not only been helping to unify NATO to the point where even Germany was willing to give up NS2, but he's giving people in Finland and Sweden a reason to take another look at NATO.

But more importantly:  Putin could barely take and hold the entirety of Ukraine with what he has right now, and you expect us to believe that he could start rolling up other countries when Ukraine wouldn't even be pacified?

Have you looked at a map lately? Even if the Baltic states weren't in NATO, he simply doesn't have the forces needed for such a large theater. Putting aside the fact that NATO has a larger (and far more modernized) military force, Russia doesn't have the infrastructure to support such a front - I have friends who have worked in Russia in recent years, and when you get away from the large cities, the infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.) are shit.  The Russians can't move their forces around as easily as we can.

And NATO's naval forces would take advantage of the Baltic Sea and just rain down hell on Russian forces.  

Again, I'd much prefer your take to be right.  But to be clear, I'm not suggesting that Putin would do his Baltic gambit today or tomorrow.  Instead, he plays out his Ukraine gambit.  Then, after the dust settles, and he's confirmed to his satisfaction that there's a good reason to believe NATO and Europe are cowards, he'll run the Baltic play.  Because, for the nth time, it's low-risk, high reward.  

He doesn't have to conquer Lithuania.  He just has to 1) violate Lithuania's sovereignty, and 2) have NATO fail to step up.  The question isn't "would Russia or NATO win" (NATO would smoke any incursion).  That's the wrong question.  It's "would NATO step up and fight, or would it shy away from war with Russia over a piddly little NATO member like Lithuania?"  I think the answer is yes.....but there's a CHANCE that it's "no."

I can absolutely see this entire gambit backfiring on him already -- if Finland asks for NATO membership, Putin will have a big L on his scorecard (as just one example).  But then....a pissed and embarrassed Vlad may be even MORE dangerous for global stability.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Brisketexan

[52-80 19205]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This.  And again, it's not the size, it's the quality (what she said.....)

Their army is not equipped or prepared to go toe to toe with a modern NATO force and multiple fronts just exacerbates this.  This isn't the days of Napoleon and zee' Germans trudging through Russian mud and freezing winters.  Standoff conventional weapons can decimate an already crumbling infrastructure and choke out their population centers.  Follow the money (which is the play that I think this is).  You think the rising billionaire class will sit idly by and see their empires fall to Putin's hubris?  There'd be civil war before a world war.  

chaos is opportunity.  the previous regime change is what minted a bunch of current crop of billionaire oligarchs now (through privatization)... why wouldnt opportunistic people champion another regime change now?

[BachelorTrek 3054]

Also, the ruskie military is sloppy.... everyone has their smartphones, they have their smartphones on, and you can see the traffic jams on the traffic setting of google maps on the main highways from Crimea and from Bolgorod into Ukraine. 

If accurate, you might as well put up a "BOMB HERE" sign on a map for the Ukraine military to follow and acquire.

Putin messed up already, since the ground isn't frozen anymore, so ruskie heavy artillery, armor, trucks all have to use the roads.

[BabaYaga 15302]

I'm also confused on the timing of all this.  Putin is giving Ukraine way too much time to prepare?  If your goal is to seize territory, slow playing an on-gain, off-again invasion is an interesting strategy

Maybe Ruskie intel keeps feeding Putin stories about how easy this campaign will be, but it seems off?  Setting up the board for the final game, maybe?

[InkaUtexas 26017]

Any of our flyboys able to verify this? 

 

[BabaYaga 15302]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I can absolutely see this entire gambit backfiring on him already -- if Finland asks for NATO membership, Putin will have a big L on his scorecard (as just one example).  But then....a pissed and embarrassed Vlad may be even MORE dangerous for global stability.

It's also a pretext for more outward invasion/expansion

[atomheartbevo 89758]

4 minutes ago, staboner said:

a sound guerilla strategy will defeat the drunks. its the big weapons that will kill lots of people. as we know 

A sound guerrilla strategy would keep the big weapons confined to a few extremely well-guarded areas that require lots of well-trained manpower to keep safe.

For instance:  Russians will probably have to rely on helicopters a lot given the distances and terrain.  You can't have helicopters in bases that could easily be hit with a few mortars by some dudes on motorcycles.  You can't fly those helicopters in areas where some Ukrainians with MANPADS are lurking.  Both of those things requires manpower to keep large areas cleared out and secure, and it also restricts the areas that those helicopters can operate.

You could apply the same thing to their forward bases and their heavy vehicles (tanks, self-propelled arty, etc.).  You can't go driving those things all over the countryside, and especially in urban areas, without having decent infantry support.  A sound guerrilla network could easily setup IEDs, etc., as well as look at chokepoints, etc.  and could force them to operate with lots of infantry support. 

Sure, a sound guerrilla strategy/network couldn't do much to stop a large Russian presence from just shelling the shit out of an area, but they could move the civilian population (as well as their own operations) out of range, leaving the Russians to waste ammo and fuel on empty structures.

And Ukraine has a major thing going for it:  Tens of thousands of rivers, and if the guerrillas wipe out the bridges, that leaves the Russians relying on pontoon bridges, and holy fuck does that get dicey if you need a lot of them - that becomes a huge drain on manpower to keep those bridges guarded, and pontoon bridges that can support armored vehicles aren't just something that can be whipped up and shipped from Russia in a few hours.

 

[956 Worldwide 34738]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

None of the NATO members are going to fight Russia regardless of genocide/slaughter of civilians. 

With that said, the EU and plenty of other nations still have a lot of major cards to play in terms of export/imports, and completely isolating Russia from the West.  I posted an article earlier mentioning it (I don't remember if it was NYT or WSJ or Business Insider), but basically even the US just by itself hasn't fully exerted its economic power - we could easily enact incredibly strict export/import controls that would shut Russian industries off from a lot of what they need.  We appear to be holding on to those cards to see how things play out.

I think @Ghost of LL mentioned it, but the Russians aren't exactly producing a lot of high-tech stuff on their own - they are beholden to the West/China for a lot of stuff.

And a lot of these countries have a lot of grievances with Russia.

And yes, China could turn around and try and meet a lot of the demand that Russia/Russian industries would then have, but that puts Russia squarely under Beijing's thumb, and they will damn sure make Russia pay for it.

Hell, China could join in with the West and completely wreck Putin/Russia.  How much does Xi like Putin?

Also on the tech stuff- Russia isn’t as far behind as you think on a lot, maybe better in some areas.  For example, until only about three years ago China could not produce a viable fighter jet engine and relied on Russian engines (which they reverse engineered). A lot of that was due to the indigenous metallurgy capability the Soviets had that China had to build.  Russian electronic warfare is fantastic. The S-400 is the best AA system on the market. 
 

China has closed that gap and surpassed it in a lot of areas.  Budget constraints have meant the Russians have to focus their fire. IMO, the true test of this new “friendship” will be new Chinese tech transfer back to Russia— which has for decades gone the other way. The difference is that China doesn’t need the money like Russia did. 

[BabaYaga 15302]

4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

chaos is opportunity.  the previous regime change is what minted a bunch of current crop of billionaire oligarchs now (through privatization)... why wouldnt opportunistic people champion another regime change now?

The underlings would.  The bosses would not, and they have a significant amount of internal influence 

[dieucla98 2942]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Any of our flyboys able to verify this? 

 

Not that this confirms that but it shows a definite aversion to flying anywhere near the area.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

21 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Back to war watch: Zelenskyy is speaking Russian on TV and telling the people of Russia that Ukraine didn’t attack Donetsk, that Putin refuses to take a call, and that Ukraine doesn’t want war.

So yeah, that’s where we are at on this now. 

How is his Russian (for some reason I think you speak Russian)? Perfect with a Ukrainian accent or does he throw in some Ukrainian words for spite?

[InkaUtexas 26017]

2 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

Not that this confirms that but it shows a definite aversion to flying anywhere near the area.

Been that way for a few days, but wondering if this NOTAM is for real. 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

14 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

You think the rising billionaire class will sit idly by and see their empires fall to Putin's hubris?  There'd be civil war before a world war.  

This is what I'm curious about - if we bring out the really big guns and shut down a lot more of their imports and/or shut off a lot more Russian access to their finances outside of Russia, at what point does it become too much to bear for them?

BMDs act like they'll take one for the team they love, but they all have a line they won't cross.

[956 Worldwide 34738]

2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

How is his Russian (for some reason I think you speak Russian)? Perfect with a Ukrainian accent or does he throw in some Ukrainian words for spite?

Zelenskyy is Jewish from Central Ukraine, with his early school years in the Soviet system. Russian is his first and native language and he speaks it better than Ukrainian. 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

China is our long term threat. But we can mess them up in a few areas.

We have some major weapons to use against them. With the exception of the rare earth elements, China would be in a lot of trouble if the US and a few other nations decided their companies need to move their production to other Asian countries, including India, or even places like Brazil.

[BabaYaga 15302]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is what I'm curious about - if we bring out the really big guns and shut down a lot more of their imports and/or shut off a lot more Russian access to their finances outside of Russia, at what point does it become too much to bear for them?

BMDs act like they'll take one for the team they love, but they all have a line they won't cross.

Again, follow the money.  This is the play.  

[BayouBill 835]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

a pissed and embarrassed Vlad may be even MORE dangerous for global stability.

This is my worry. Someone posted in an article awhile back how Putin's only got another 10 or so years left in power and he think it's his manifest destiny to conquer the former Soviet territories and maybe even more than that. A man who thinks like that can be extremely dangerous when he thinks destiny is in play.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

Russia going after the Baltic states?

Man save me that strain. Some of y’all are high as hell.

Its puff, puff PASS! Not puff, puff, puff. Y’all some stingy mofos.

Let’s keep this to the realm of the possibilities.
Not Russia is going after Venezuela next because he secretly likes arepas and cachapas. Or Russia is going after Senegal next because he wants a shot of going to the quarters in the Copa. 
Chingao

Edited February 23, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[InkaUtexas 26017]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We have some major weapons to use against them. With the exception of the rare earth elements, China would be in a lot of trouble if the US and a few other nations decided their companies need to move their production to other Asian countries, including India, or even places like Brazil.

Agree. And we need to go after those REM's. If anyone is in that business let me know. I will go explore upper Kenya for ya. 

I say turn Central America into our manufacturing center and get out of China. But back to Russia/Ukraine. Kyiv is locking down. Gonna be a long night for their military. An interesting note is the TikTok's coming out of Russia about movements of forces has really slowed down. 

[BabaYaga 15302]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is what I'm curious about - if we bring out the really big guns and shut down a lot more of their imports and/or shut off a lot more Russian access to their finances outside of Russia, at what point does it become too much to bear for them?

BMDs act like they'll take one for the team they love, but they all have a line they won't cross.

Looks like we are not the only ones sniffing around this angle

Follow the money

Quote

Browder urged that Putin be hit “where it hurts most” with personal sanctions against his “oligarch trustees” who manage more than $200 billion in funds that Putin’s kleptocracy has amassed.

The U.S. has used the Magnitsky Act 500 times, freezing assets and banning travel for perpetrators from Russia, China, Iran and Myanmar. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34738]

Thread with big chunks of Zelenskyy’s appeal.  He has come under justified fire but this was a mature, powerful appeal for peace. Compare and contrast with Putin’s snarling rant about how Ukraine doesn’t deserve to be a country.

 

[hobbes2702 13049]

8 minutes ago, BayouBill said:

This is my worry. Someone posted in an article awhile back how Putin's only got another 10 or so years left in power and he think it's his manifest destiny to conquer the former Soviet territories and maybe even more than that. A man who thinks like that can be extremely dangerous when he thinks destiny is in play.

I get the sentiment but Russia doesn’t have anything close to the military capability to reclaim former Soviet states. They would get their ass handed to them trying to fight on multiple fronts and it would likely result in Putin being removed from power.

[TXSG8R 3362]

5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Agree. And we need to go after those REM's. If anyone is in that business let me know. I will go explore upper Kenya for ya. 

I say turn Central America into our manufacturing center and get out of China. But back to Russia/Ukraine. Kyiv is locking down. Gonna be a long night for their military. An interesting note is the TikTok's coming out of Russia about movements of forces has really slowed down. 

We have a bunch of rare earths here in the states. The problem is refining. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19209]

1 hour ago, F250 said:

This. I used work for an Israeli security company that would often do business in some funky ass places. My rule was I am good with Europe and North America and that is about it.

I would occasionally get a call "Hey would you be willing to go to some African country you didn't know existed for a month?"

My response every time.

 

I went to and lived in some real shitholes during my career.  When the international pool coordinator asked me if there was anywhere I wouldn't go I replied "No place that ends in 'stan'", other than that I was pretty much good to go.  Some of the best times in my career were in west Africa where anything goes.  Made getting certain things done a lot easier where there's no regulations stopping you.

[956 Worldwide 34738]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I went to and lived in some real shitholes during my career.  When the international pool coordinator asked me if there was anywhere I wouldn't go I replied "No place that ends in 'stan'", other than that I was pretty much good to go.  Some of the best times in my career were in west Africa where anything goes.  Made getting certain things done a lot easier where there's no regulations stopping you.

I’m a ‘Stan fan. Oddly enough you couldn’t pay me enough for most of West Africa. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

29 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

it is 5:15, US Central time. Both Russia and OU suck.

China is our long term threat. But we can mess them up in a areas. Food and Fuel to name two. Russia can give them fuel, but I don't see any long term plans floating around to do this. I don't see Russia going into Finland, but I could see them playing the "we are here to protect our people" game in the Baltics and Moldovia. And yes, NATO would fuck them up until Vladimito loses it and perhap launches a few ICBM's. 

Whereas China is OU, Russia=aggy. 

Yep.  Our doctrine has been China for a while.  Deny them ports.  I think we have this weird mindset that it is easy as fuck to send 100,000 troops somewhere because we did it to the middle east.  That 100 miles to Taiwan is a long way when you have stuff actively hunting you

[InkaUtexas 26017]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’m a ‘Stan fan. Oddly enough you couldn’t pay me enough for most of West Africa. 

Yeah, I agree. Give me all the rice with pomegranate  

But give me Latin America. Hot women, good rum and great weather. Plus they have baseball. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

We have a bunch of rare earths here in the states. The problem is refining. 

DOD is moving towards getting more processing plants in the US. Know they partnered with MP Materials to build/reconfigure the mine they have at the California/Nevada border. 

the overall sentiment is correct though - we need to build our capabilities of both extracting and processing rare earths in the US. There’s actually a bunch of fun research going into this, including leaching coal ash to collect rare earths within those deposits. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34738]

Just now, FartingMonk said:

Yep.  Our doctrine has been China for a while.  Deny them ports.  I think we have this weird mindset that it is easy as fuck to send 100,000 troops somewhere because we did it to the middle east.  That 100 miles to Taiwan is a long way when you have stuff actively hunting you

The English channel is a lot shorter, the Nazis had a bunch more coastline to defend, and the Nazis didn’t have nerds on Twitter blasting out a message each time a Tommy took a dump in Newhaven. We still didn’t try that shit without complete air superiority and almost all of the German Army a continent away. 

[DDD Dad 14346]

27 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Zelenskyy is Jewish from Central Ukraine, 

I’ve got that in common with him (at least by heritage from one side of my family)

[Serak The Preparer 3431]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

GDP per capital is meh

Wouldn't that just be their GDP or are the Ruskies even trickier than I thought, hiding a New Moskow or something?

[Ghost of LL 15539]

6 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Interesting reviews on that book.  Not much middle ground between, "It's great!" and "It's utter shite!"  

McMeekin has definite opinions on Russia's role in world affairs in the 20th Century (bottom line: it's underappreciated and completely nefarious).  Both this book and his book on the outbreak of WWI are very interesting and worth considering within a larger context.  Which is to say that I wouldn't make his book the only book you read on those subjects.  But as one book among others, McMeekin brings a very interesting perspective.

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If this happens as expected it’s going to be horrific. To be clear, it’s nightfall in Eastern Europe. Young Ukrainian children are going to be murdered with rockets and bombs in their homes where they feel safe.

 

I am not a pacifist and understand well the need for and grave costs of war. This war is not needed. Also for the record, it makes me feel all the more shame about how I responded during the lead up to Iraq as a younger man. 

Yeah.

In fairness to us, we were young.  Young men are stupid and flippant and superficial.  They make bad decisions; it's their brand.

But in further fairness to us, we demonstrated a complete lack of judgment and empathy (which we shared with the vast majority of our countrymen) for which we should be ashamed. 

I know I am.

And yeah--I'm not blind to the possibility (likelihood? damned-near certainty?) that my lack of empathy arose from the fact that the country being invaded is in the Middle East and not Europe; that it is populated by people who are brown and not people who are white.

You know--I think I might have been a dick in my younger years.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Again, I'd much prefer your take to be right.  But to be clear, I'm not suggesting that Putin would do his Baltic gambit today or tomorrow.  Instead, he plays out his Ukraine gambit.  Then, after the dust settles

The dust won't really settle though.  If he goes all-in on Ukraine, it's going to be an occupation far larger/tougher than our occupation of Iraq (a country of 25 million), and even with 250,000 personnel invading, we couldn't truly conquer/pacify all of Iraq. And like the Saudis and Iranians did in Iraq with their proxy war, the West will keep Ukrainian guerrillas active for years to come, and like it was for the Saudis/Iranians, it's extremely easy to keep Ukrainians supplied.

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He doesn't have to conquer Lithuania.  He just has to 1) violate Lithuania's sovereignty, and 2) have NATO fail to step up......

I can absolutely see this entire gambit backfiring on him already -- if Finland asks for NATO membership, Putin will have a big L on his scorecard (as just one example).  But then....a pissed and embarrassed Vlad may be even MORE dangerous for global stability.

There is no chance that it's "no".  He may not even have the forces necessary to try and pacify Ukraine, and you are jumping the gun and talking about invading countries and spreading out his military forces even thinner than they will already be, and he will be calling up the poorly-equipped/trained reservists and conscripts.

And things are already backfiring - see NS2, see Finland's comments about NATO.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

By the way--the Turkish Air Force is flying an A400M into Ukraine (destination unknown, but probably Kyiv) as we speak.  Presumably delivering some drones?

[DDD Dad 14346]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

McMeekin has definite opinions on Russia's role in world affairs in the 20th Century (bottom line: it's underappreciated and completely nefarious).  Both this book and his book on the outbreak of WWI are very interesting and worth considering within a larger context.  Which is to say that I wouldn't make his book the only book you read on those subjects.  But as one book among others, McMeekin brings a very interesting perspective.

Yeah.

In fairness to us, we were young.  Young men are stupid and flippant and superficial.  They make bad decisions; it's their brand.

But in further fairness to us, we demonstrated a complete lack of judgment and empathy (which we shared with the vast majority of our countrymen) for which we should be ashamed. 

I know I am.

And yeah--I'm not blind to the possibility (likelihood? damned-near certainty?) that my lack of empathy arose from the fact that the country being invaded is in the Middle East and not Europe; that it is populated by people who are brown and not people who are white.

You know--I think I might have been a dick in my younger years.

Might have?

[FartingMonk 3608]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

McMeekin has definite opinions on Russia's role in world affairs in the 20th Century (bottom line: it's underappreciated and completely nefarious).  Both this book and his book on the outbreak of WWI are very interesting and worth considering within a larger context.  Which is to say that I wouldn't make his book the only book you read on those subjects.  But as one book among others, McMeekin brings a very interesting perspective.

Yeah.

In fairness to us, we were young.  Young men are stupid and flippant and superficial.  They make bad decisions; it's their brand.

But in further fairness to us, we demonstrated a complete lack of judgment and empathy (which we shared with the vast majority of our countrymen) for which we should be ashamed. 

I know I am.

And yeah--I'm not blind to the possibility (likelihood? damned-near certainty?) that my lack of empathy arose from the fact that the country being invaded is in the Middle East and not Europe; that it is populated by people who are brown and not people who are white.

You know--I think I might have been a dick in my younger years.

I was a freshmen at UT when 9/11 happened.  Not even 3 weeks living in Jester.  The mindset back then is I had an inherent trust in our government.  They were there to protect us.  20 years later it is the opposite.  

[atomheartbevo 89758]

49 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Also on the tech stuff- Russia isn’t as far behind as you think on a lot, maybe better in some areas.  For example, until only about three years ago China could not produce a viable fighter jet engine and relied on Russian engines (which they reverse engineered). A lot of that was due to the indigenous metallurgy capability the Soviets had that China had to build.  Russian electronic warfare is fantastic. The S-400 is the best AA system on the market. 

China has closed that gap and surpassed it in a lot of areas.  Budget constraints have meant the Russians have to focus their fire. IMO, the true test of this new “friendship” will be new Chinese tech transfer back to Russia— which has for decades gone the other way. The difference is that China doesn’t need the money like Russia did. 

Russians have some amazing stuff, but how much of that is reliant on the bits and pieces of tech being imported from the West/China?  Because I doubt they are building their EW and AA stuff completely from the ground up with only Russian parts (all of the base electronic components, etc.).

[InkaUtexas 26017]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

By the way--the Turkish Air Force is flying an A400M into Ukraine (destination unknown, but probably Kyiv) as we speak.  Presumably delivering some drones?

Drones or some anti-tank shit. Turks are not happy about this, but have remained a bit quiet. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

By the way--the Turkish Air Force is flying an A400M into Ukraine (destination unknown, but probably Kyiv) as we speak.  Presumably delivering some drones?

Neighbors friends buddies dogs uncles sister who knows a guy at FedEx says the manifest says it's rubber dog shit from Hong Kong

[FartingMonk 3608]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russians have some amazing stuff, but how much of that is reliant on the bits and pieces of tech being imported from the West/China?  Because I doubt they are building their EW and AA stuff completely from the ground up with only Russian parts (all of the base electronic components, etc.).

Whatever the Russians have is still more than enough to wipe out the Ukrainians.  Their top tier guys are going to do all the heavy lifting. The rest is just there to watch and be moral support.  There isn't going to be open tank battles or any of that stuff.  It's shelling and intimidation.  We will probably see a lot of leadership get taken out on the Ukrainian side 

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

Blinkens response would seem to indicate that tonight is the night Russia advances. 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Drones or some anti-tank shit. Turks are not happy about this, but have remained a bit quiet. 

Anything to help bog down Russia in Ukraine and get more troops out of Syria. Turks would love a freer hand there. 

edit: Although I don't know how they could do it with Ukraine, I'm sure the Turks would love to get a lot more Soviet AA stuff out of Syria.

Edited February 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[InkaUtexas 26017]

Zelensky also issued a warning to Russians: "If they attack, if they try to take our county - our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children - we will be defending ourselves.

"As you attack, it will be our faces you see, not our backs," the Ukrainian president added.

This speech was Zelensky's last-ditch plea, urging the Russian people to stop their president from launching a devastating war on Ukraine, tweeted the BBC's Eastern European correspondent Sarah Rainsford.

"He was clear. It will mean death. Blood. 10s of 1000s of lives. Russians must know the truth: that you need to stop before it's too late," our correspondent wrote.

"The idea that this war is even possible is something no Ukrainian wanted to believe. But I can't think many are sleeping tonight," she added.

[FartingMonk 3608]

I have this weird feeling that Putin has something terminal with his health.  This isn't his playbook at all.  If he really wanted Donbas he would have said yoink Donbas is mine.  Do something about it. This is way over the top for him