Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Shady Ray 1,633]

47 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

Good to know for when Russia invades Germany.

Of course that is not in his plans...and that's why both Brisket and I said "worst case scenario."

 

I don't have kids, but I imagine if I did I would at least take note that things in Europe can spin out of control as history has shown us, and what the facts are on the ground tonight are not necessarily what they are two weeks, two months, 6 months down the road. No one is saying Germany is going to be invaded, but if mobilizations of larger NATO forces occur and fighting spills out into NATO members, Berlin becomes a target and Brisket's kid lives in Berlin.

 

I don't think a father prepping his teen-aged kid living temporarily in Berlin for worst case scenarios means that he thinks an invasion of Berlin is likely. Just means he is a logical, rational father.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Brisketexan 105,170]

It makes perfect sense though.  Some of you are declaring that he will conquer NATO members even though he has yet to demonstrate he can actually conquer and hold, actually hold, Ukraine.
Because this is a college football-focused forum, and most of us at one time have taken a win in September and extrapolated out that we are going to play for a MNC in January.

For the nth time, Putin doesn’t have to conquer a Baltic state. To win, all he has to do is 1) attack, and 2) have NATO fail to respond with force. That’s it. That’s all. Low risk. High reward.

[Pods 7,586]

31 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

God I wish the old site was still up so I could drag my old thread into here and start pulling the greatest hits of naysayers when I was saying this about Crimea.

Yeah, it amazed me at the time that more couldn't see it. Virtually everyone was in the appeasement camp. That's played out exactly as it always does. 

I'm surprised and pleased to see more consensus this time.

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

6 minutes ago, Drew said:

So Moldova?

Russians already have troops there, much to the chagrin of the government of Moldova.

Moldova's not really worth it though.  Would just be more area to occupy with the potential for more anti-Russian guerrillas/insurgents.

Hell, their GDP is $36 billion.  Economically makes no sense, and would be expensive to keep resupplied.

[troph 24,891]

Tanks crossing Belarus border - video on cnn. 

[Drew 2,499]

Looks like some reports of explosions in Moldova, but now reports saying they were just hearing the explosions in nearby Odessa.

So probably just paranoia

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

11 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

https://twitter.com/natobrazeb/status/1496706076334510080?s=21

 

Latvia invoking Article 4 of NATO which reads:

 

Take it as a social media rumor, but supposedly Finland has been talking to the NATO folks - not so much that Finland is worried, but more of a "fuck you" to Russia.  Like somebody said, they are probably pre-approved, and actually the shocker would be if they weren't talking to NATO. 

[dimyh 1,874]

As much as I wish I could have a personal meeting with me, Putin, a baseball bat, and 2 minutes to channel my inner BearJew I'm trying to calm down and think objectively about  Putin's strategic objective. I somewhat understand his dinosaur view of reclaiming the former Soviet republics and the imagined slights of being a fading empire. My big question is why now? Why the rush? Why the shift from their proxy attacks to an actual physical engagement? Ukrainian leadership was floundering and the drift to democracy was no where close to being a successful demonstration of Western values. There was no big swing in dissatisfaction for the general Russian populace. His approval ratings were still fairly high and any immediate threats like Navalny appeared to have been neutered. Financially they may have had some struggles but they had succeeded in stockpiling reserves for exactly this type of dramatic full scale war. Why not wait for the NS2 to finish and get the Germans even more comfortable suckling on that Russian teat?

He's turning 70 so I don't know if he is hitting that stage in live where he is thinking about that legacy bucket list. Where he sees himself as a savior for restoring some of that Soviet glory before he figures out a final succession plan. It does not make any sense to be so bold at this point. All it does is make them a pariah and unifies the EU (and most of the world) against them.  They will be stuck with a lengthy and costly occupation for a piece of territory that does not have significant economic or strategic value. It seems that they had better chance of following their subterfuge tactics to discredit Zelensky, getting someone more pro-Russian elected and then continuing to work on splintering the EU/NATO support. For someone who has been very savvy it seems a bit irrational and some clear miscalculation of the political blowback. Just concerned what his actions will be as he continues to paint himself into this corner.

[Eastwood 4,394]

 

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1,501]

For the nth time, Putin doesn’t have to conquer a Baltic state. To win, all he has to do is 1) attack, and 2) have NATO fail to respond with force. That’s it. That’s all. Low risk. High reward.

Attacking the most powerful military alliance in the world is not what I would consider a low risk endeavor. Sometimes when you repeat something over and over, like say Ukraine should irradiate themselves by blowing up Chernobyl, or that Putin will attack a NATO nation and NATO won’t respond with appropriate force, someone’s failure to agree with you doesn’t mean they don’t understand what you are saying. It could mean they think what you keep saying is silly.

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

 

[Skipper 6,157]

2 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Just concerned what his actions will be as he continues to paint himself into this corner.

I think your entire post articulated what I'm trying to understand as well.  And considering there doesn't really seem to be a rational basis for what we're witnessing from what I can tell I definitely share your concern.

[Brisketexan 105,170]

Attacking the most powerful military alliance in the world is not what I would consider a low risk endeavor. Sometimes when you repeat something over and over, like say Ukraine should irradiate themselves by blowing up Chernobyl, or that Putin will attack a NATO nation and NATO won’t respond with appropriate force, someone’s failure to agree with you doesn’t mean they don’t understand what you are saying. It could mean they think what you keep saying is silly.

Yes. Silly like a massive full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation in Europe by a reincarnated Soviet Union. Like THAT would ever happen.
Lack of imagination is our Achilles heel.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

1 minute ago, dimyh said:

He's turning 70 so I don't know if he is hitting that stage in live where he is thinking about that legacy bucket list. Where he sees himself as a savior for restoring some of that Soviet glory before he figures out a final succession plan. It does not make any sense to be so bold at this point. All it does is make them a pariah and unifies the EU (and most of the world) against them.  They will be stuck with a lengthy and costly occupation for a piece of territory that does not have significant economic or strategic value. It seems that they had better chance of following their subterfuge tactics to discredit Zelensky, getting someone more pro-Russian elected and then continuing to work on splintering the EU/NATO support. For someone who has been very savvy it seems a bit irrational and some clear miscalculation of the political blowback. Just concerned what his actions will be as he continues to paint himself into this corner.

Using logic to understand illogical behavior may be challenging. That’s why the behavior is illogical. 
He’s a small man. Literally and figuratively. 
Twenty plus years at the helm and literally no legacy.

Father time is undefeated and untied.

The world should be so lucky if he gets Mussolini’d in Moscow. 

[Brisketexan 105,170]

I think your entire post articulated what I'm trying to understand as well.  And considering there doesn't really seem to be a rational basis for what we're witnessing from what I can tell I definitely share your concern.

This. Stop trying to plug our rational thought into Putin’s head. He’s playing a different game altogether. Use your imagination to understand an opponent who thinks nothing like you. It’s the only shot you have at understanding him, and thus predicting his next move.

[Captainant 27,686]

6 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

Attacking the most powerful military alliance in the world is not what I would consider a low risk endeavor. Sometimes when you repeat something over and over, like say Ukraine should irradiate themselves by blowing up Chernobyl, or that Putin will attack a NATO nation and NATO won’t respond with appropriate force, someone’s failure to agree with you doesn’t mean they don’t understand what you are saying. It could mean they think what you keep saying is silly.

My man, it was but a few years ago when our president was actively jockeying to pull us out of NATO. If the cornerstone member of an alliance is rattling the cages about leaving, there's justifiably some question in the international community as to if NATO (read: US) may not respond in force.

 

Also as an aside, you really gotta build a fucking bridge and get over that Brisket used some hyperbole. Stop bringing it along into every fucking discussion that includes him as some lazy way to discount what he's saying that has NOTHING to do with what you're constantly bringing up.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Captainant

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

4 minutes ago, dimyh said:

It seems that they had better chance of following their subterfuge tactics to discredit Zelensky, getting someone more pro-Russian elected and then continuing to work on splintering the EU/NATO support. For someone who has been very savvy it seems a bit irrational and some clear miscalculation of the political blowback. Just concerned what his actions will be as he continues to paint himself into this corner.

Just now, Skipper said:

I think your entire post articulated what I'm trying to understand as well.  And considering there doesn't really seem to be a rational basis for what we're witnessing from what I can tell I definitely share your concern.

It's odd as shit.  It's not about warm water ports - he has what he needs.  It's not about feeding themselves.  

He's nearly 70 and I get the whole legacy thing, but this is not turning out the way he would have wanted - he's unifying NATO and the EU, Germany bailed on NS2.

I've seen some talk about the declining population and that Russia will be seriously hurting within 10 years, but this doesn't seem like a good way to solve that problem.

You could tie the declining population into the Russian obsession with being a great European power, but they have nukes which makes them a power, and now they are isolated themselves from Europe and making themselves rely on Asia, which runs counter to that.

Fucking weird.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I think your entire post articulated what I'm trying to understand as well.  And considering there doesn't really seem to be a rational basis for what we're witnessing from what I can tell I definitely share your concern.

Yeah.  I've wondered about this.  I have finally figured it out.  He found out that he has terminal cancer.  His KGB buddy loaned him his Tim McGraw cassette tape.  And there was a lost in translation and he thought Tim McGraw said invade Ukraine.  If I'm correct then his next move is to ride a bull named Fu Man Chu

[GabrielsHorn 2,186]

 

[ztejas 43,520]

8 minutes ago, dimyh said:

As much as I wish I could have a personal meeting with me, Putin, a baseball bat, and 2 minutes to channel my inner BearJew I'm trying to calm down and think objectively about  Putin's strategic objective. I somewhat understand his dinosaur view of reclaiming the former Soviet republics and the imagined slights of being a fading empire. My big question is why now? Why the rush? Why the shift from their proxy attacks to an actual physical engagement? Ukrainian leadership was floundering and the drift to democracy was no where close to being a successful demonstration of Western values. There was no big swing in dissatisfaction for the general Russian populace. His approval ratings were still fairly high and any immediate threats like Navalny appeared to have been neutered. Financially they may have had some struggles but they had succeeded in stockpiling reserves for exactly this type of dramatic full scale war. Why not wait for the NS2 to finish and get the Germans even more comfortable suckling on that Russian teat?

He's turning 70 so I don't know if he is hitting that stage in live where he is thinking about that legacy bucket list. Where he sees himself as a savior for restoring some of that Soviet glory before he figures out a final succession plan. It does not make any sense to be so bold at this point. All it does is make them a pariah and unifies the EU (and most of the world) against them.  They will be stuck with a lengthy and costly occupation for a piece of territory that does not have significant economic or strategic value. It seems that they had better chance of following their subterfuge tactics to discredit Zelensky, getting someone more pro-Russian elected and then continuing to work on splintering the EU/NATO support. For someone who has been very savvy it seems a bit irrational and some clear miscalculation of the political blowback. Just concerned what his actions will be as he continues to paint himself into this corner.

I still think it's mostly posturing to maintain or increase political power domestically. The legacy angle may hold some weight too. We'll see how far he goes with this - I don't think he's some crazy madman - he's always struck me as very calculated and deft politically. That said - this is starting to resemble playing underneath the beehive. Testing the UN and one non-NATO state at a time is one thing. Actively trying to piece the USSR back together through military action is going to get risky really quickly if that's where this is headed.

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes. Silly like a massive full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation in Europe by a reincarnated Soviet Union. Like THAT would ever happen.
Lack of imagination is our Achilles heel.

It's not even close to a reincarnated Soviet Union.  FFS their GDP is a fucking joke - Russia's GDP is well below Italy and barely above Spain.  Take their nukes away and they are a mid-tier European country.

And you are ignoring that they had already invaded Ukraine over Crimea and were still occupying a part of Ukraine, and that Ukraine is not a member of the world's most powerful military allowance.

And lack of imagination?  There's probably 20-30 military fiction novels written over the last 5 years concerning Russia invading Ukraine, and I'm being conservative.  I have no doubt that NATO has gamed all kinds of scenarios just like this, since, you know, there are military personnel whose sole job is to game this stuff out.  People were thinking about this shit prior to Crimea, but they began to really think about it after Crimea.

And none of the US/UK/French leadership is out there saying "well let's let Putin have another chance, maybe he doesn't mean it!"

Edited February 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Patricio Swayze 17,058]

 

https://64.media.tumblr.com/37511705d3cdc1b08bfbe1faf8d897bb/tumblr_om46b6NvX41sqf5tdo6_400.gifv


Goddamn it. How do you do this shit on tapa?

[ztejas 43,520]

4 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

[FartingMonk 3,608]

2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I still think it's mostly posturing to maintain or increase political power domestically. The legacy angle may hold some weight too. We'll see how far he goes with this - I don't think he's some crazy madman - he's always struck me as very calculated and deft politically. That said - this is starting to resemble playing underneath the beehive. Testing the UN and one non-NATO state at a time is one thing. Actively trying to piece the USSR back together through military action is going to get risky really quickly if that's where this is headed.

I thought the political power angle until I saw him dress down his intelligence chief.  That was absolute fear from a very powerful man. I'm beginning to go with madman angle because everything he is doing is very not Putin.  

 

[mchookem 16,338]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

11 countries have joined NATO since Putin came to power, including the three former Baltic SSR's, and he didn't do anything to try and prevent that, because he was waiting for 18 years until it was 2022 and he was pushing 70 in order to try and claw those countries back.  And you believe that the 30 countries in NATO will turn their backs on him trying to pick them off one by one.

 

 

you are like the anti-Brisket and i appreciate it. not bc he's wrong, you just give me a tiny glimmer of hope lol.

[Skipper 6,157]

I'm calling it a night soon.  But look forward to reading Shady Ray's analysis from the ground in Germany and whether waking up to this shit show may sway the opinions of the German populace from what has been articulated over the past month or so.

[Scheiss Meister 8,408]

8 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

I hope that it was full of paratroopers.

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

I thought the political power angle until I saw him dress down his intelligence chief.  That was absolute fear from a very powerful man. I'm beginning to go with madman angle because everything he is doing is very not Putin.  

Yeah, that was the oddest thing out of everything going on with Putin.

The fact that they lied about when it was filmed, and could have easily edited that part out, and instead not only went with it, but made sure the world saw the dressing down of his intelligence chief.

Sane leaders don't mock their underlings they rely upon and then release the video to the world.

That was some theatrics.

[dimyh 1,874]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's odd as shit.  It's not about warm water ports - he has what he needs.  It's not about feeding themselves.  

He's nearly 70 and I get the whole legacy thing, but this is not turning out the way he would have wanted - he's unifying NATO and the EU, Germany bailed on NS2.

I've seen some talk about the declining population and that Russia will be seriously hurting within 10 years, but this doesn't seem like a good way to solve that problem.

You could tie the declining population into the Russian obsession with being a great European power, but they have nukes which makes them a power, and now they are isolated themselves from Europe and making themselves rely on Asia, which runs counter to that.

Fucking weird.

Exactly. I know he's an excellent manipulator that has been able to pick easy battles. While this one should be "easy" (it sickens me to say that) but appears to be strategically suicidal. Just worried that the combination of age and years of absolute power is clouding his judgement.

[ztejas 43,520]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

I thought the political power angle until I saw him dress down his intelligence chief.  That was absolute fear from a very powerful man. I'm beginning to go with madman angle because everything he is doing is very not Putin.  

 

Well I think that's where the him getting older/trying to solidfy his legacy aspect comes in. It isn't very Putin of a decade ago - but at his age and after being in charge for so long he may be saying "fuck it - let's see what I can actually get away with". 

I'm nowhere near convinced he's actually willing to have this escalate into a full on multinational conflict. Not sure Russia would really be down with that anyway. He could easily be deposed before things get totally out of hand.

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

For the Surly economic types, getting the G7 going against Russia seems kinda big, although individually and with the EU/NATO, it was already happening.

And somebody said they will be cracking down hard on exports to Russia.

 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm calling it a night soon.  But look forward to reading Shady Ray's analysis from the ground in Germany and whether waking up to this shit show may sway the opinions of the German populace from what has been articulated over the past month or so.

It's still early here, so coverage is just now catching up, but I will give you a sneak preview of the German reaction:

 

[Chad Fuck 17,698]

Yeah, that was the oddest thing out of everything going on with Putin.
The fact that they lied about when it was filmed, and could have easily edited that part out, and instead not only went with it, but made sure the world saw the dressing down of his intelligence chief.
Sane leaders don't mock their underlings they rely upon and then release the video to the world.
That was some theatrics.

And completely unnecessary theatrics at that. It was standout odd in a very odd series of events.

[BERT 4,380]

59 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You have no idea how far he is willing to go. All of it is on the table. All of it. Yes, all of it. Imagine the worst outcome. Then make it worse. That’s on the table.
Failing to consider the horrific is a recipe for making it come true.

But don’t you do this on all subjects?? Pretty sure I remember you saying COVID was gonna wipe out most of the world. Or something like that

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1,501]

My man, it was but a few years ago when our president was actively jockeying to pull us out of NATO. If the cornerstone member of an alliance is rattling the cages about leaving, there's justifiably some question in the international community as to if NATO (read: US) may not respond in force.
 
Also as an aside, you really gotta build a fucking bridge and get over that Brisket used some hyperbole. Stop bringing it along into every fucking discussion that includes him as some lazy way to discount what he's saying that has NOTHING to do with what you're constantly bringing up.

Brisket doesn’t think it is hyperbole. I mentioned it twice. He spent a week seriously advocating for it over and over again over a dozen posts or more. He is absolutely serious about this silly idea.

I’m no great expert on Eastern European geopolitics. But it isn’t hard for me to figure out that someone who was fixated on this is not a serious person to listen to about this matter.

This is clearly a very serious situation. I feel very badly for the Ukrainians. Innocent people…women, children are going to die. Vlad deserves to burn for this. I hate him.

But I also believe we should be pragmatic.

We can argue about this, but I don’t know what alternative options Brisket, you, or anyone else spouting unrealistic doom and gloom propose that we do. So, outside of whatever sanctions we can come up with, what is it that we should do stop Putin?

If you are think we should go to war in Ukraine against Russia, I find that equally silly.

So help the Ukrainians as we can, supply them, do every sanction we can come up with to hurt Russia and Putin’s cronies, and defend our NATO allies. This is what we are doing and what I think we should b doing. I don’t know what else you think is appropriate.

[Eastwood 4,394]

1 minute ago, BERT said:

But don’t you do this on all subjects?? Pretty sure I remember you saying COVID was gonna wipe out most of the world. Or something like that

IIRC, he said it would hit 1 million deaths and the "it's just the flu" crowd laughed at the idea.

[hobbes2702 13,049]

10 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I thought the political power angle until I saw him dress down his intelligence chief.  That was absolute fear from a very powerful man. I'm beginning to go with madman angle because everything he is doing is very not Putin.  

 

What was the dressing down?

[Patricio Swayze 17,058]

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

2 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Exactly. I know he's an excellent manipulator that has been able to pick easy battles. While this one should be "easy" (it sickens me to say that) but appears to be strategically suicidal. Just worried that the combination of age and years of absolute power is clouding his judgement.

Georgia would be the easiest.  4 million people.  

Kazakhstan would be more of a challenge, between 20 million people (Chechnya is much smaller), terrain issues, and that whole Islam thing.  Might drag in Muslims from neighboring areas who have grievances to settle with the Russians.

Ukraine - this wide-scale of an attack/invasion seems like it could still really bog Russia down.  

[RDCanecutter 26,457]

Ten years from now, Kaliningrad will be known as East Prussia again because Russia sold it to get new rims for the Lada.

The Poles will not care because they'll be strutting around in their new Formerly West Belarus But Always Rightfully Poland Frontier Zone.

Other details remain fuzzy to my Second Sight.

[Steel Shank 9,429]

Who's the craziest mofo right now - Putin or Mickleson?

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

What was the dressing down?

 

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

4 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

It's still early here, so coverage is just now catching up, but I will give you a sneak preview of the German reaction:

 

I think we are all that way. Glad to see the Germans joining fully.

[Eastwood 4,394]

 

[hobbes2702 13,049]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Well that’s not great

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

7 minutes ago, BERT said:

But don’t you do this on all subjects?? 

To be fair, he was right when he said Tom Herman was going to try and kill UT football.

It's just that Brisket said Herman would do it by locking the doors and flooding the practice facility with cyanide gas.  It was a bit over the top.

[52-80 19,205]

Somebody murk this asshole tho

[Leeroy Jenkins 2,409]

Yeah it is time for someone to take out Putin.  

[atomheartbevo 89,752]

3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Well that’s not great

Yeah, and a couple of things stood out to everybody - the time that claimed that this meeting occurred didn't match up with any of the wrist watches of those present.

And more importantly, based on the time on the watches, there was plenty of time to edit out that exchange or even film a new exchange and stick it in there.

Instead Putin had it released as is.  I think one of our two experts mentioned that it was Putin making sure that everybody knew he was fully in charge and that everybody in the room was in this together.

Edited February 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo