Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[FartingMonk 3608]

7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

What was the dressing down?

There is a video of it.  He was trying to get his Intel chief to agree with him.  Intel chief kinda mumbled and wasn't very articulate.  He told him in a very demeaning way to use your fucking words

[BERT 4442]

8 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

IIRC, he said it would hit 1 million deaths and the "it's just the flu" crowd laughed at the idea.

What ever it was he was flying off the handle at record speeds 

[dimyh 1874]

1 minute ago, BERT said:

What ever it was he was flying off the handle at record speeds 

Hmmm....good be an important step for getting our hypersonic missiles functional.

[BERT 4442]

Also, now it’s makes sense why my mail order Russian bride order ETA said N/A. Fucking Putin

[FartingMonk 3608]

CNN had a live video of a group of Ukranians walk out to the sidewalk and forming a circle and just drop to their knees in prayer.  Kinda tough.

[Captainant 27970]

2 minutes ago, BERT said:

What ever it was he was flying off the handle at record speeds 

Not to derail but... US COVID deaths are at 940k and counting. 

On topic:

 

I wonder if that news blurb is for us or the Russian pilots... Manpads are a thing, and we sent a shitton of them

[atomheartbevo 90041]

 

[Stunns38 3704]

Also, now it’s makes sense why my mail order Russian bride order ETA said N/A. Fucking Putin

I got an “out of stock until further notice” message myself.

[RDCanecutter 26550]

Just now, BERT said:

Also, now it’s makes sense why my mail order Russian bride order ETA said N/A. Fucking Putin

Around 2004 I had a would be Russian bride randomly contact me from Pskov. Or at least some dudes did using a photo. I tried to string "her" along to eventually meet up with my made-up friend who worked at the Pskov Police Station, the idea being to get a humorous evasive string of scam emails that I could publish on a "blog."

It fell through. The pictures were cute. Bet she's a grizzled dumptruck-looking babushka now.

[F250 28941]

27 minutes ago, mchookem said:

you are like the anti-Brisket and i appreciate it. not bc he's wrong, you just give me a tiny glimmer of hope lol.

Me when Brisket and ATB post:

"Way too pessimistic, way too optimistic."

Edited February 24, 2022 by F250

[FartingMonk 3608]

Just now, Stunns38 said:

I got an “out of stock until further notice” message myself.

Mine came.  I came. Sent it back for a refund

 

[atomheartbevo 90041]

I'm calling it a night.  These are the feeds I've been sporadically following - most in the first group have been solid, with some folks actually being on the ground there.

• https://twitter.com/markmackinnon
• https://twitter.com/michaelh992
• https://twitter.com/Liveuamap
• https://twitter.com/BNONews
• https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson
• https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM
• https://twitter.com/marcorubio/ (Senator on Intel committee has had true info a lot)
• https://twitter.com/NATOBrazeB (NATO official)
• https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand (NatSec reporter)

Not sure on this one - they seem to have a lot of good stuff.

• https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar

[staboner 5015]

[Stunns38 3704]

Mine came.  I came. Sent it back for a refund
 

I didn’t know Costco offered this service. Noted.

[atomheartbevo 90041]

And finally, this is a live feed:

 

[staboner 5015]

i wonder if their HEB is open

[RDCanecutter 26550]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Georgia would be the easiest.  4 million people.  

Kazakhstan would be more of a challenge, between 20 million people (Chechnya is much smaller), terrain issues, and that whole Islam thing.  Might drag in Muslims from neighboring areas who have grievances to settle with the Russians.

Ukraine - this wide-scale of an attack/invasion seems like it could still really bog Russia down.  

Back in the time of the Tsars, I guess taking over the Kazakhs was just something one did, like snatching land from the Apaches. But in this day and age, absorbing a sizable Islamic country would be like trying to swallow a live porcupine-- it would get worse the more you succeed.

[atomheartbevo 90041]

Another one:

https://twitter.com/RALee85

 

[atomheartbevo 90041]

Also, and I'm not posting because it could be faked, but twitter is claiming that Putin's war declaration has metadata from a few days ago, 2-3 days before the announcement.

[ztejas 43741]

3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Back in the time of the Tsars, I guess taking over the Kazakhs was just something one did, like snatching land from the Apaches. But in this day and age, absorbing a sizable Islamic country would be like trying to swallow a live porcupine-- it would get worse the more you succeed.

Kazakhstan also has a very sizable border with China. 

[RDCanecutter 26550]

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Kazakhstan also has a very sizable border with China. 

That'd be one thing that could make them love a Russian.

[MissingInAction 25299]

The multiple reports of Russian aircraft being shot out of the sky makes me smile.

Pretty sure it's US hardware doing it.

[956 Worldwide 34908]

This is completely fucked.  I am personally devastated.  I won’t update a lot today for my own mental health on this issue and because of professional responsibilities.  This is the worst case scenario and will be worse for a long time to come.  Also, I was wrong…they launched missiles at fucking Ivano-Frankivsk. 70 miles from the EU. 

[OU Sucks 9079]

1 minute ago, MissingInAction said:

The multiple reports of Russian aircraft being shot out of the sky makes me smile.

Pretty sure it's US hardware doing it.

Hopefully they are legit planes and not just drones.

[Leeroy Jenkins 2428]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Also, and I'm not posting because it could be faked, but twitter is claiming that Putin's war declaration has metadata from a few days ago, 2-3 days before the announcement.

He had the same tie and sat in the same exact position.  
 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Leeroy Jenkins

[atomheartbevo 90041]

Ehh, one more before checking out - Port of Odessa live:

 

[SL Xpress 7518]

I'm not sure I understand why people are so perplexed about this.

Kiev and Ukraine hold a special place in Russian cultural identification. The Kievan Rus. The Vikings who came through and settled the region. The descendants who survived the Mongol purge. The badasses who would found the Russian Empire. People keep going on and on about the USSR, but Putin harkens back to Peter, Catherine, Ivan. 

Putin doesn't think in terms of Communism versus Capitalism, although he was educated and indoctrinated in a system that did. He thinks in terms of values. He sees the West as decadent and dying. Russian literature, especially modern Russian literature, is fascinating in the way it portrays Russians versus the West. Russians are seen as stoic, suffering, but holding on to traditional values. Westerners, and Americans in particular, are seen as chaotic, decadent, with no values whatsoever. Putin constantly makes comments about men being demeaned, trans and homosexual groups being granted greater freedoms, the loss of religious values (which is interesting since Communism disavows religion explicitly, but Russian identity is bound intrinsically to the Orthodox Church). as dangerous shifts for the human race. He literally sees Russia, with himself at the head, as practically a savior for the human race in some ways.

He feels like men have very specific proscribed roles to play. To be a man is to act in very specific ways, and the same goes for women. He very much believes in what we'd call stereotyped masculine and feminine roles in society.

What does all this have to do with Ukraine? Well, as far as Putin is concerned, Ukraine is a part of Russia, even more than Crimea. He doesn't even think of them as two separate entities. As he says, the separation of the two is an artificial historical accident. 

Since the fall of the USSR, Ukraine has always been a country divided by language. Ukraine, spoken by 67% in the western two thirds, has always been the language of people who leaned towards Europe. There is also the emphasis among Russian speakers regarding the Ukrainian cooperation with Nazi Germany (in an effort to gain independence from the USSR), the atrocities the Ukrainian forces aligned with Germany perpetuated during WWII, and what they perceive as the continued Naziism among the people who lean towards Europe. As you can imagine given the bloodshed and devastation wrought by the Germans in WWII, all of this is loaded language. Hence Putin speaks about the demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine. For Putin, any support for Europe and European values is akin to proof of Naziism. It's all one and the same to him.

The Orange Revolution in 2004/5 came before Putin had secured his power base. Nonetheless, he was able to support President Yanukovych, who won the election in 2010 as a Russian speaker. I'm not going to go into everything that led up to the Maidan Revolution of 2014, other than to say Yanukovych eventually fled, in part because he wasn't willing to do what Assad did in Syria. The Maidan Revolution made Putin feel like he was losing his control over Ukraine, which is when he took over Crimea to secure that territory with its major naval base. After he had Crimea secured he sent in special forces to the Donbas region to destabilize it and created protected zones, going so far as to send in the Russian military to wipe out the Ukrainian forces who were sweeping the separation forces easily.

There has never been a time when Putin hasn't considered bringing Ukraine back under the Russian aegis as foreign policy priority #1. Georgia, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, much less Finland, just don't have anything resembling the same emotional or geopolitical importance of Ukraine. Economic, either, for that matter. The only one that comes close is Belarus, but Putin feels like he has Belarus firmly in the Russian SOI as long as Lukashenko is in charge. Which also has had its own share of protests, but Lukashenko is no Yanukovych, either in terms of control over his country, or ruthlessness. He's more on the Assad spectrum. 

I do not see this turning into a wider conflict unless Putin lives for 20 more years. Ukraine will be a lot to swallow. I don't see it becoming Iraq or Afghanistan (Russian or US), or Vietnam. It won't even be a Chechnya. Ukraine lacks the religious differences which pushes people to extremes, and frankly, the cultural differences between Ukrainians and Russians aren't that large in the context of those other countries. Pro-Russian politicians have enjoyed popular support in Ukraine since the breakup of the USSR.

What it will be is entirely dysfunctional, ruled by corrupt oligarchs who are basically crime bosses with fancy titles, with the richest being the head of state (don't know if anyone has seen the palace that Yanukovych built while he was in power - expect more of the same when Putin puts a puppet leader in charge of Ukraine). 

Putin will continue to do more to destabilize any countries on its border, especially any politicians or movements that are opposed to Russian interests, whether it's Finland, the Baltic states, or Georgia. I could even see Russia basically taking over Georgia if Putin decides it's moved too far to the West. He has to be feeling his own mortality the same way every 70 year old does. Making this move regarding Ukraine is simply completing a process he felt never should have gotten away from him back in 2014 in the first place if Yanukovych had simply been a more ruthless ruler. 

What I will say is that the West's biggest mistakes have always involved giving Ukrainian's false hope that they wouldn't be left to dry if push came to shove. This started with the Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine was promised protection for its sovereignty in return for giving up its possession of nuclear weapons, all the way through the two major protests in 2005 and 2014 supported and in part financed by western interests, and in the years since then, with all the mixed messages regarding what to do about Russia's annexation of Crimea and their involvement in Donbas. The West was never going to give Ukraine advanced weaponry. They were never going to station troops to support Ukrainian forces. And they were never going to declare war on Russia in case of military action. And that's the only thing that ever had any hope of deterring what we're seeing today. This invasion of Ukraine has always been inevitable. Didn't matter who was president. 

On the other hand, for the states who have been accepted into NATO, basically until NATO truly breaks up, the members are safe from Russian direct military invasion like we're seeing right now in Ukraine. They're not safe from other destabilization techniques, but Russia/Putin isn't going to go that far. Which is why he's been so adamant about NATO promises not to expand in the first place. Of course, Trump has made noises in the past about breaking up NATO, so maybe a president in the future truly does progress along those lines. I think it would be a mistake of the highest order, but that's a different discussion.

[Pods 7594]

5 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Russia isn’t going to hold back.  Just pray they don’t escalate to chemical and nuclear weapons.

I am starting to believe the unhinged Putin theory.  He could have basically gotten away with another piecemeal annexation of certain territory like Crimea.  That would have been the move of the evil dictator who is shrewd and calculating.  

What does Russia really even stand to gain from this?  Best case is they are a pariah who had to administer a hostile territory.  Worst case is they suffer massive casualties and don’t even really succeed in taking Ukraine (unless they use weapons of mass destruction).  

What’s the point? 

It would have made sense for Putin to drum up expectations of conflict, only to walk them back, making the eastern territories official while the world breathed a sigh of relief. 

This is madness. All options have significant and unpredictable downside for him.

It entirely possible he's blatantly and casually lied so long, he believes his own bullshit. 

[Blotto 23679]

damn....people just walking around

 

[MissingInAction 25299]

I've got "This is the end of the world as we know it..." stuck in my head.

This is gonna make the pandemic look like a vacation.

[elfenix 34385]

56 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

https://64.media.tumblr.com/37511705d3cdc1b08bfbe1faf8d897bb/tumblr_om46b6NvX41sqf5tdo6_400.gifv


Goddamn it. How do you do this shit on tapa?

you don't. 

[Biff Tannen 45763]

14 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I'm not sure I understand why people are so perplexed about this.

Kiev and Ukraine hold a special place in Russian cultural identification. The Kievan Rus. The Vikings who came through and settled the region. The descendants who survived the Mongol purge. The badasses who would found the Russian Empire. People keep going on and on about the USSR, but Putin harkens back to Peter, Catherine, Ivan. 

Putin doesn't think in terms of Communism versus Capitalism, although he was educated and indoctrinated in a system that did. He thinks in terms of values. He sees the West as decadent and dying. Russian literature, especially modern Russian literature, is fascinating in the way it portrays Russians versus the West. Russians are seen as stoic, suffering, but holding on to traditional values. Westerners, and Americans in particular, are seen as chaotic, decadent, with no values whatsoever. Putin constantly makes comments about men being demeaned, trans and homosexual groups being granted greater freedoms, the loss of religious values (which is interesting since Communism disavows religion explicitly, but Russian identity is bound intrinsically to the Orthodox Church). as dangerous shifts for the human race. He literally sees Russia, with himself at the head, as practically a savior for the human race in some ways.

He feels like men have very specific proscribed roles to play. To be a man is to act in very specific ways, and the same goes for women. He very much believes in what we'd call stereotyped masculine and feminine roles in society.

What does all this have to do with Ukraine? Well, as far as Putin is concerned, Ukraine is a part of Russia, even more than Crimea. He doesn't even think of them as two separate entities. As he says, the separation of the two is an artificial historical accident. 

Since the fall of the USSR, Ukraine has always been a country divided by language. Ukraine, spoken by 67% in the western two thirds, has always been the language of people who leaned towards Europe. There is also the emphasis among Russian speakers regarding the Ukrainian cooperation with Nazi Germany (in an effort to gain independence from the USSR), the atrocities the Ukrainian forces aligned with Germany perpetuated during WWII, and what they perceive as the continued Naziism among the people who lean towards Europe. As you can imagine given the bloodshed and devastation wrought by the Germans in WWII, all of this is loaded language. Hence Putin speaks about the demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine. For Putin, any support for Europe and European values is akin to proof of Naziism. It's all one and the same to him.

The Orange Revolution in 2004/5 came before Putin had secured his power base. Nonetheless, he was able to support President Yanukovych, who won the election in 2010 as a Russian speaker. I'm not going to go into everything that led up to the Maidan Revolution of 2014, other than to say Yanukovych eventually fled, in part because he wasn't willing to do what Assad did in Syria. The Maidan Revolution made Putin feel like he was losing his control over Ukraine, which is when he took over Crimea to secure that territory with its major naval base. After he had Crimea secured he sent in special forces to the Donbas region to destabilize it and created protected zones, going so far as to send in the Russian military to wipe out the Ukrainian forces who were sweeping the separation forces easily.

There has never been a time when Putin hasn't considered bringing Ukraine back under the Russian aegis as foreign policy priority #1. Georgia, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, much less Finland, just don't have anything resembling the same emotional or geopolitical importance of Ukraine. Economic, either, for that matter. The only one that comes close is Belarus, but Putin feels like he has Belarus firmly in the Russian SOI as long as Lukashenko is in charge. Which also has had its own share of protests, but Lukashenko is no Yanukovych, either in terms of control over his country, or ruthlessness. He's more on the Assad spectrum. 

I do not see this turning into a wider conflict unless Putin lives for 20 more years. Ukraine will be a lot to swallow. I don't see it becoming Iraq or Afghanistan (Russian or US), or Vietnam. It won't even be a Chechnya. Ukraine lacks the religious differences which pushes people to extremes, and frankly, the cultural differences between Ukrainians and Russians aren't that large in the context of those other countries. Pro-Russian politicians have enjoyed popular support in Ukraine since the breakup of the USSR.

What it will be is entirely dysfunctional, ruled by corrupt oligarchs who are basically crime bosses with fancy titles, with the richest being the head of state (don't know if anyone has seen the palace that Yanukovych built while he was in power - expect more of the same when Putin puts a puppet leader in charge of Ukraine). 

Putin will continue to do more to destabilize any countries on its border, especially any politicians or movements that are opposed to Russian interests, whether it's Finland, the Baltic states, or Georgia. I could even see Russia basically taking over Georgia if Putin decides it's moved too far to the West. He has to be feeling his own mortality the same way every 70 year old does. Making this move regarding Ukraine is simply completing a process he felt never should have gotten away from him back in 2014 in the first place if Yanukovych had simply been a more ruthless ruler. 

What I will say is that the West's biggest mistakes have always involved giving Ukrainian's false hope that they wouldn't be left to dry if push came to shove. This started with the Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine was promised protection for its sovereignty in return for giving up its possession of nuclear weapons, all the way through the two major protests in 2005 and 2014 supported and in part financed by western interests, and in the years since then, with all the mixed messages regarding what to do about Russia's annexation of Crimea and their involvement in Donbas. The West was never going to give Ukraine advanced weaponry. They were never going to station troops to support Ukrainian forces. And they were never going to declare war on Russia in case of military action. And that's the only thing that ever had any hope of deterring what we're seeing today. This invasion of Ukraine has always been inevitable. Didn't matter who was president. 

On the other hand, for the states who have been accepted into NATO, basically until NATO truly breaks up, the members are safe from Russian direct military invasion like we're seeing right now in Ukraine. They're not safe from other destabilization techniques, but Russia/Putin isn't going to go that far. Which is why he's been so adamant about NATO promises not to expand in the first place. Of course, Trump has made noises in the past about breaking up NATO, so maybe a president in the future truly does progress along those lines. I think it would be a mistake of the highest order, but that's a different discussion.

Yeah, not sure how we all missed all that. 

[AeroHorn 781]

7 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Putin doesn't think in terms of Communism versus Capitalism, although he was educated and indoctrinated in a system that did. He thinks in terms of values. He sees the West as decadent and dying. Russian literature, especially modern Russian literature, is fascinating in the way it portrays Russians versus the West. Russians are seen as stoic, suffering, but holding on to traditional values. Westerners, and Americans in particular, are seen as chaotic, decadent, with no values whatsoever. Putin constantly makes comments about men being demeaned, trans and homosexual groups being granted greater freedoms, the loss of religious values (which is interesting since Communism disavows religion explicitly, but Russian identity is bound intrinsically to the Orthodox Church). as dangerous shifts for the human race. He literally sees Russia, with himself at the head, as practically a savior for the human race in some ways.

 

Exactly, and this is the reason for support in the US. Trump is just a clown act to a real feeling among many, from Buchanan to Bannon, that the Christian/Western civilization is ending with the rise of progressives/atheism/globalism, and any option is fair game to maintain traditional Christian way of life. (Don't think too deeply as to what being a Christian actually means, but only in terms of traditional values.)

[Shady Ray 1633]

28 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is completely fucked.  I am personally devastated.  I won’t update a lot today for my own mental health on this issue and because of professional responsibilities.  This is the worst case scenario and will be worse for a long time to come.  Also, I was wrong…they launched missiles at fucking Ivano-Frankivsk. 70 miles from the EU. 

This stunned me. Going into Galicia is fucking insane. In a million years I would have never thought that area would have been targeted.
 

And one thing that has been clear as can be in all of our back and forths on these various Russia threads, is that in addition to being really fucking informed, you are a good dude with a genuine emotional investment in this part of the world that is being abused by Russia. I know you have people close to you currently in Ukraine, and in addition to the Ukrainian people at large during this time, I’ll be sure to throw an extra prayer for your people specifically today.
 

And yeah yeah yeah…get a room…I know.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Shady Ray

[OU Sucks 9079]

6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

This stunned me. Going into Galicia is fucking insane. In a million years I would have never thought that area would have been targeted.
 

And one thing that has been clear as can be in all of our back and forths on these various Russin threads, is that in addition to being really fucking informed, you are a good dude with a genuine emotional investment in this part of the world that is being abused by Russia. I know you have people close to you currently in Ukraine and in addition to the Ukrainian people at large during this time, I’ll be sure to throw an extra prayer for your people specifically today.
 

And yeah yeah yeah…get a room…I know.

Hopefully, all these planes weren't lined up like this when the missiles struck.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Not sure if this has already been posted, as I skipped some to get caught up this morning, so apologies if it has, but Russia's BMPT-72 units had been spotted on the way to Ukraine, which would indicate that are preparing for some pretty grizzly urban fighting.

 

I am not a military dude, but from what I have read, this was created out of the difficulties that they had fighting in Grozny. That is a really, really bad sign. 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

8 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Hopefully, all these planes weren't lined up like this when the missiles struck.

From what I am reading, the Ochakiv seaport between Odessa and Kherson at the mouth of the Dnieper estuary has been destroyed by Russian strikes and is currently burning. That port had been the focus of a lot of US investment to beef up Ukrainian defenses. If true, there is a lot of psychological messaging there, for sure. I don't think anyone was preparing for that to be hit in the first wave of attacks.

[SL Xpress 7518]

5 minutes ago, AeroHorn said:

Exactly, and this is the reason for support in the US. Trump is just a clown act to a real feeling among many, from Buchanan to Bannon, that the Christian/Western civilization is ending with the rise of progressives/atheism/globalism, and any option is fair game to maintain traditional Christian way of life. (Don't think too deeply as to what being a Christian actually means, but only in terms of traditional values.)

 

Without a doubt. I'd add some white supremacist aspects in there, too. To be honest, that may be foremost in terms of the tribalism aspects of it. You don't have to be white necessarily, but you have to adopt "white values." If you're black, but you talk, act, and say the same things that a white supremacist would say, then you're fine. 

One of my favorite jokes along these lines was when Dave Chappelle would talk about when you encounter a gang heading down the street towards you, be extra careful of the one white dude, because you have no idea what he had to do to be a part of that gang. That's just tribalism at its heart. You don't necessarily have to look like everyone in the tribe, but if you don't, your actions better be EXTRA aligned with the values of the tribe to be considered a part of it.

There's a fantasy out there that if we just say racism is evil often enough, with enough vehemence, somehow we'll end it. We are inherently tribal. It's so encoded in our DNA we're never removing it. It's central in ways that go beyond homo sapiens, homo erectus, and every other bipedal ancestor of mankind. We see it in how we root for sports teams, in brand loyalties, politics, gender, sexual orientation, age, religion - you name it, we'll find a way to divide ourselves into tribes. Russia has been trying to align itself with others it considers part of the same tribe around the world. Russia has a long history of authoritarianism, so of course it finds itself aligned with other leaders who support that type of governance. Also, the values Putin supports requires repression to a significant degree. The more the better. 

For this country I don't see the danger as Russia invading Ukraine and therefore it's going to expand the war. I see the danger in greater polarization as a significant and strident part of the white polity strikes back at what they consider the existential refutation of their values and mores, and identify Russia and Putin specifically as the lone defender. Of course he's 70, so I don't know how much of an impact he's going to actually have, but someone is going to follow him and his script. Not just in this country, but every country with a significant white population. You see it over and over again.  

That's not to diminish what's happening in Ukraine. It's awful. But I thought it was awful 8 years ago when I was watching cell phone footage of Russian special forces taking over law enforcement and civil administration centers in the Donbas region, and then when the fractious Ukraine government finally got a military force together to take the area back by force, Russia came in and wiped it out. Then the West just let the situation sit like that for 8 years with token support of Ukraine. What did everyone think was going to happen? This is the only result that could have, other than Putin dying from a heart attack. I feel horrible for the western Ukrainians. There is going to be a lot of death, and a horrible downgrade in quality of life in every way imaginable for the survivors. But when has there ever been a people in a country which falls under Russian SOI prospered? I mean ever. 

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Romanian Ministry of Defense saying a Ukrainian SU-27 has made an emergency landing at its facility in Bacau. If Russian jets pursue in a situation like that, that's where shit gets real fuckin' dicey.

 

https://www.mapn.ro/cpresa/17283_avion-militar-ucrainean,-interceptat-si-aterizat-la-bacau

[SL Xpress 7518]

27 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

“Vladimir Putin is essentially a religious zealot with peculiar obsessions about Ukraine rooted in his own self-serving historical mythology and self-image as a messianic figure” may be accurate and lend credence to the idea that this was all foreseeable, but it’s not exactly a rebuttal of the idea that Putin isn’t a rational actor.

 

What would be a rational actor in your mind? If he's fully prepared to pay the consequences for his invasion of Ukraine, and he ends up successfully achieving the goal of installing a pro Russia puppet government in Ukraine, how was this act irrational?

I'm not trying to be a contrarian. I have a great deal of respect for you and how your mind works. I sincerely want to hear what your view of Putin is.

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

Romanian Ministry of Defense saying a Ukrainian SU-27 has made an emergency landing at its facility in Bacau. If Russian jets pursue in a situation like that, that's where shit gets real fuckin' dicey.

 

https://www.mapn.ro/cpresa/17283_avion-militar-ucrainean,-interceptat-si-aterizat-la-bacau

 

Would they have to? What will be the support for Ukrainian forces utilizing bases across the border in NATO states with the purpose of prosecuting the war in Ukraine? I foresee it being zero.

[FartingMonk 3608]

6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

From what I am reading, the Ochakiv seaport between Odessa and Kherson at the mouth of the Dnieper estuary has been destroyed by Russian strikes and is currently burning. That port had been the focus of a lot of US investment to beef up Ukrainian defenses. If true, there is a lot of psychological messaging there, for sure. I don't think anyone was preparing for that to be hit in the first wave of attacks.

@InkaUtexas was questioning why naval assets were in the black sea.  It didn't make sense because we thought the scope would be limited.  Now it makes total sense.  It hasn't been confirmed but I am willing to bet that Russian naval fleet was there to carry off that leg of the operation.  Pretty smart move by Putin when it comes to inter military relations.  You don't want a branch of your military to be left out when you go full balls invasion.  It tends to draw up resentment.  

[Shady Ray 1633]

3 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

@InkaUtexas was questioning why naval assets were in the black sea.  It didn't make sense because we thought the scope would be limited.  Now it makes total sense.  It hasn't been confirmed but I am willing to bet that Russian naval fleet was there to carry off that leg of the operation.  Pretty smart move by Putin when it comes to inter military relations.  You don't want a branch of your military to be left out when you go full balls invasion.  It tends to draw up resentment.  

Exactly. And that port was specifically mentioned by Putin as one "that the US was using to establish capabilities for a NATO assault on Russia" a few days ago.  

 

At least two of the four he singled out have now been attacked:

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

 

 

[FartingMonk 3608]

11 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

Would they have to? What will be the support for Ukrainian forces utilizing bases across the border in NATO states with the purpose of prosecuting the war in Ukraine? I foresee it being zero.

The rules of warfare allow the pilot to declare an emergency and get a neutral country to grant permission for him to land.  Now if said jet was fixed somehow and carried an offensive mission from Romania that can be considered an act of war.  

The Russian jets if they pursued and got shot down by NATO AA would be completely legal.  How Russia responds to it would be solely on Russia but the moment your fighter jet crossed the border you have declared war.  

 

Belarus has effectively done that whether they have troops across the Russian border or not.  So right now it's Ukraine fighting Belarus and Russia.

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by FartingMonk

[SL Xpress 7518]

Just now, FartingMonk said:

The rules of warfare allow the pilot to declare an emergency and get a neutral country to grant permission for him to land.  Now if said jet was fixed somehow and carried an offensive mission from Romania that can be considered an act of war.  

The Russian jets if they pursued and got shot down by NATO AA would be completely legal.  How Russia responds to it would be solely on Russia but the moment your fighter jet crossed the border you have declared war.  

 

That's what I'm saying. Until jets start taking off from Bacau to cross the border and attack Russian targets, it's not going to matter if they land in Bacau or not. 

I guess there's a chance that might happen in a Dumb and Dumber way, but it's inconceivable to me. Hopefully not in a The Princess Bride sort of way.

[FartingMonk 3608]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

That's what I'm saying. Until jets start taking off from Bacau to cross the border and attack Russian targets, it's not going to matter if they land in Bacau or not. 

I guess there's a chance that might happen in a Dumb and Dumber way, but it's inconceivable to me. Hopefully not in a The Princess Bride sort of way.

It's the question of the pursuit though.  If the Russian jets were dumb enough or didn't have the awareness that they were going to cross the Romanian border and crossed it and got shot down.  Then it's Russias fault.  Hell even if those Russian jets were in pursuit and for some reason locked onto Romanian AA.  That is considered an offensive act.

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

It's the question of the pursuit though.  If the Russian jets were dumb enough or didn't have the awareness that they were going to cross the Romanian border and crossed it and got shot down.  Then it's Russias fault.  Hell even if those Russian jets were in pursuit and for some reason locked onto Romanian AA.  That is considered an offensive act.

Did that happen?

[FartingMonk 3608]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Did that happen?

No not yet and that's what @Shady Ray was alluding to.  When he said situations may be get dicey if they pursue a damaged jet.  Those guys are going balls to the wall trying to chase it down.  It's pretty easy to over pursue.  Those scenarios can draw in NATO.  If the Russian jet decided to shoot a missile and it chased the Ukrainian into Romanian airspace that is still an act of war.

[Shady Ray 1633]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

No not yet and that's what @Shady Ray was alluding to.  When he said situations may be get dicey if they pursue a damaged jet.  Those guys are going balls to the wall trying to chase it down.  It's pretty easy to over pursue.  Those scenarios can draw in NATO.  If the Russian jet decided to shoot a missile and it chased the Ukrainian into Romanian airspace that is still an act of war.

Exactly. No one said it happened, just that this type of scenario that you accurately described (stupidity, lack of awareness, etc) is how conflicts can expand.

 

Also, from that great follow that @InkaUtexas recommended: