Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[FartingMonk 3606]

The fact that Russia is daring to operate so close to a NATO border is pretty crazy.  50 miles is not a lot of ground to cover in a jet.

[Shady Ray 1633]

5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The fact that Russia is daring to operate so close to a NATO border is pretty crazy.  50 miles is not a lot of ground to cover in a jet.

Exactly. I don't think I remember one respected analyst contemplating anything West of the Dnieper (excluding a southern track to Odessa) as being anything beyond "an extremely unlikely scenario". We are truly in unexpected territory here.

[SL Xpress 7513]

And you think NATO is going to declare war over it?

They're going to overlook it and say don't let it happen again. Or they're going to shoot Russian planes out of the sky if they cross the border and say try that again. There is no real danger of escalation until/unless Russians pursue Ukrainian forces across the Ukrainian border en masse. Or Ukrainian forces start prosecuting the war from bases on the other side of the border.

Speculating about if it occurs is fine and dandy, but it's not a realistic scenario. The West is going to respond by absolutely crippling the Russian economy. Russia will respond in various ways. Probably one of them will be to try to enlist China's cooperation in forming an alternative fiat currency, if that's even possible. I don't think it is, but Russia is about to be locked out of international commerce in brutal ways, and access to any kind of credit liquidity denominated in dollars is going to be a central aspect to it.

What's not going to happen is Russian jets going over the Ukrainian border willy nilly, firing into Romanian civilian airports or military air bases. 

And NATO countries are not going to support the prosecution of the war on any kind of grand scale from their side of the border.

Russia is going to clean Ukraine's clock militarily speaking, and we're all going to watch it happen helplessly. Then they're going to install a puppet government, with fixed elections from here on out. There will be a lot of protests brutally suppressed. There may be some guerilla warfare, but that too is going to be brutally suppressed. There will be large refugee camps in Poland, and Romania. It's going to be a massive humanitarian crisis. There will be Ukrainian spokespeople who emerge as leaders outside of the country. Russia will try to silence any of the most prominent ones by either assassinating them or trying to discredit them. It's going to be a long, tragic downfall of a promising country. I hope some day after Putin dies the Ukrainian dream can live again. 

What's not going to happen is an escalation of the war because an SU-27 lands in Romania and Russian jets follow it to take it down for good.

[Orale 1087]

Russian stock market down 39% at the moment. 

[SL Xpress 7513]

2 minutes ago, Orale said:

Russian stock market down 39% at the moment. 

I mean, that's going to be its peak for a long long time. It has a whole lot further to fall.

[FartingMonk 3606]

4 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Exactly. I don't think I remember one respected analyst contemplating anything West of the Dnieper (excluding a southern track to Odessa) as being anything beyond "an extremely unlikely scenario". We are truly in unexpected territory here.

If Putin is doing this then he's trying to draw resentment against NATO from the Ukrainians.  He's causing a huge refugee crisis and while Poland and others will embrace and feel bad for the refugees initially.  Eventually it's going to turn bad and cause internal dissent in those countries.  When the refugees had enough and decide to go home they will have a bad taste in their mouth and the host country will remember them as free loaders.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

RTS Index is down 42% right now and dropping. It has lost over 52% in the last 5 days. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[SL Xpress 7513]

8 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Exactly. I don't think I remember one respected analyst contemplating anything West of the Dnieper (excluding a southern track to Odessa) as being anything beyond "an extremely unlikely scenario". We are truly in unexpected territory here.

But that's dumb. Putin doesn't want half of Ukraine under his thumb. He wants the whole thing. It's only unexpected because of the limitations of the analysts.

Putin will not say stop until there is no standing military operating within the borders of Ukraine period. And even then there's going to be a significant occupation force for a long time. Could be until he's dead. Successful occupations often require even larger troop deployments than initial invasions, although at some point a large part of the occupying force will be drawn from Ukrainians themselves.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Ukraine has formally asked Turkey to close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to Russian ships. I can't imagine the Turks would do this given their own energy needs from Russia, and the risk that Russia has the potential to turn up the heat big-time in Syria, and allll the other risks to shit that ties their worlds together, but really interesting things all the way around for those who follow Europe closely.

 

One thing that went largely unnoticed in all the other developments yesterday was that Putin had Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Moscow two days ago to sign a cooperation pact. That was definitely heard loud and clear in Ankara that Putin can and will dabble in other areas of significant interest to Turkey, even those areas where Erdogan likes to think of himself as the Chief of the Turkic world.

 

Quote

 

The first paragraph of the document states that Russia and Azerbaijan “build their relations on the basis of allied interaction, mutual respect for independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the state borders of the two countries, as well as adherence to the principles of non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, as well as peaceful settlement of disputes and non-use of force or threat of force”.

It is emphasized that Russia and Azerbaijan, “occupying the same or close positions on topical international problems, deepen constructive cooperation, including on a bilateral basis, and also interact within the framework of the UN, OSCE, CIS, other international organizations and forums on issues of mutual interest”.

“The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan express their readiness to hold urgent consultations in the event of a situation that, in the opinion of one of the Parties, may pose a threat to peace, violate the peace or affect the security interests of one of the Parties, as well as in the event of a threat of such a situation for the purpose of its settlement”, the text of the declaration reads.

https://jam-news.net/azerbaijan-signs-declaration-on-allied-cooperation-with-russia-what-does-it-mean/

 

 

[SL Xpress 7513]

4 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

If Putin is doing this then he's trying to draw resentment against NATO from the Ukrainians.  He's causing a huge refugee crisis and while Poland and others will embrace and feel bad for the refugees initially.  Eventually it's going to turn bad and cause internal dissent in those countries.  When the refugees had enough and decide to go home they will have a bad taste in their mouth and the host country will remember them as free loaders.

I mean, sure. He's also taking over the country. The whole country. That he doesn't actually think has the right to exist outside of Russian domination. And has never felt like it has the right to exist outside of Russian domination. Ever. Before he even came to power. For Putin it's like he's the President of the United States taking back the state of Washington. Not exactly apples to apples, but close enough given contextual limitations.

There's some overthinking going on. I don't know why. And I don't know why there's so much surprise. I guess you could say I'm surprised at all the surprise.

[Hook1997 5351]

Why the fuck is a country that invades another and calls it a military exercise allowed to be in the UN?  Get them the hell out now or you have 0 teeth   

Edited February 24, 2022 by Hook1997

[956 Worldwide 34704]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

This stunned me. Going into Galicia is fucking insane. In a million years I would have never thought that area would have been targeted.
 

And one thing that has been clear as can be in all of our back and forths on these various Russia threads, is that in addition to being really fucking informed, you are a good dude with a genuine emotional investment in this part of the world that is being abused by Russia. I know you have people close to you currently in Ukraine, and in addition to the Ukrainian people at large during this time, I’ll be sure to throw an extra prayer for your people specifically today.
 

And yeah yeah yeah…get a room…I know.

Thanks man.  It’s also clear that you’re not here for Russia’s bullshit and you’re thoughtful about what this means. 
 

Central Europe is in total shock now.  I will say this— if the U.S. IC and diplomacy can ever recover from the debacle of Iraq, they just did.  They told the world what Russia was doing and tried to stop a war. They failed at the latter but were correct about every warning. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

But that's dumb. Putin doesn't want half of Ukraine under his thumb. He wants the whole thing. It's only unexpected because of the limitations of the analysts.

Putin will not say stop until there is no standing military operating within the borders of Ukraine period. And even then there's going to be a significant occupation force for a long time. Could be until he's dead. Successful occupations often require even larger troop deployments than initial invasions, although at some point a large part of the occupying force will be drawn from Ukrainians themselves.

The hind sight analysis is fine and dandy but you're gonna tell me.  Yeah man, I expected Russia to come in and do this week's ago.  Even a blind person could see it.  Because if you did I would say you're full of shit.  Now that it happened it's easy to see what his objective is.  You don't decide to invade a sovereign country without provacation after having so many other opportunities to do it without reason.  It makes no damn sense.  Even if he takes out and installs a new govt in Ukraine does NATO lift the sanctions when he decides to go home?  Ukraine for bankrupting your country.  How is that a good trade off?

[SL Xpress 7513]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

Ukraine has formally asked Turkey to close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to Russian ships. I can't imagine the Turks would do this given their own energy needs from Russia, and the risk that Russia has the potential to turn up the heat big-time in Syria, and allll the other risks to shit that ties their worlds together, but really interesting things all the way around for those who follow Europe closely.

 

One thing that went largely unnoticed in all the other developments yesterday was that Putin had Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Moscow two days ago to sign a cooperation pact. That was definitely heard loud and clear in Ankara that Putin can and will dabble in other areas of significant interest to Turkey, even those areas where Erdogan likes to think of himself as the Chief of the Turkic world.

 

 

 

There's an old joke about involvement versus commitment regarding breakfast. The chicken is involved. The pig is committed. Turkey is perfectly willing to get involved on Ukraine's side. They're not about to be committed. They'll sell drones to the Ukrainians and other advanced NATO weaponry over Russia's protests. They'll visit Moscow to advocate on the Ukrainian's behalf. They're not going to close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to Russian ships. No way no how.

Also, to clarify, Erdodan considers himself the Chief of the Muslim world, not just the Turkish one. The rightful inheritor of the caliphs of old. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Thanks man.  It’s also clear that you’re not here for Russia’s bullshit and you’re thoughtful about what this means. 
 

Central Europe is in total shock now.  I will say this— if the U.S. IC and diplomacy can ever recover from the debacle of Iraq, they just did.  They told the world what Russia was doing and tried to stop a war. They failed at the latter but were correct about every warning. 

Yeah, due to my job I sometimes get so bogged down in the disconnected policy/political analysis that I find myself distracted from the real-world morality of certain things. Times like these bring that ultimate issue back into focus.


And yeah...the Central Europeans knew the score for sure. I can't imagine the helplessness that this entire situation unfolding must have felt like. 

[52-80 19147]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

 

Without a doubt. I'd add some white supremacist aspects in there, too. To be honest, that may be foremost in terms of the tribalism aspects of it. You don't have to be white necessarily, but you have to adopt "white values." If you're black, but you talk, act, and say the same things that a white supremacist would say, then you're fine. 

One of my favorite jokes along these lines was when Dave Chappelle would talk about when you encounter a gang heading down the street towards you, be extra careful of the one white dude, because you have no idea what he had to do to be a part of that gang. That's just tribalism at its heart. You don't necessarily have to look like everyone in the tribe, but if you don't, your actions better be EXTRA aligned with the values of the tribe to be considered a part of it.

There's a fantasy out there that if we just say racism is evil often enough, with enough vehemence, somehow we'll end it. We are inherently tribal. It's so encoded in our DNA we're never removing it. It's central in ways that go beyond homo sapiens, homo erectus, and every other bipedal ancestor of mankind. We see it in how we root for sports teams, in brand loyalties, politics, gender, sexual orientation, age, religion - you name it, we'll find a way to divide ourselves into tribes. Russia has been trying to align itself with others it considers part of the same tribe around the world. Russia has a long history of authoritarianism, so of course it finds itself aligned with other leaders who support that type of governance. Also, the values Putin supports requires repression to a significant degree. The more the better. 

For this country I don't see the danger as Russia invading Ukraine and therefore it's going to expand the war. I see the danger in greater polarization as a significant and strident part of the white polity strikes back at what they consider the existential refutation of their values and mores, and identify Russia and Putin specifically as the lone defender. Of course he's 70, so I don't know how much of an impact he's going to actually have, but someone is going to follow him and his script. Not just in this country, but every country with a significant white population. You see it over and over again.  

That's not to diminish what's happening in Ukraine. It's awful. But I thought it was awful 8 years ago when I was watching cell phone footage of Russian special forces taking over law enforcement and civil administration centers in the Donbas region, and then when the fractious Ukraine government finally got a military force together to take the area back by force, Russia came in and wiped it out. Then the West just let the situation sit like that for 8 years with token support of Ukraine. What did everyone think was going to happen? This is the only result that could have, other than Putin dying from a heart attack. I feel horrible for the western Ukrainians. There is going to be a lot of death, and a horrible downgrade in quality of life in every way imaginable for the survivors. But when has there ever been a people in a country which falls under Russian SOI prospered? I mean ever. 

 

All of this could have been prevented if Russia had a minister of diversity and equity 

[SL Xpress 7513]

Just now, FartingMonk said:

The hind sight analysis is fine and dandy but you're gonna tell me.  Yeah man, I expected Russia to come in and do this week's ago.  Even a blind person could see it.  Because if you did I would say you're full of shit.  Now that it happened it's easy to see what his objective is.  You don't decide to invade a sovereign country without provacation after having so many other opportunities to do it without reason.  It makes no damn sense.  Even if he takes out and installs a new govt in Ukraine does NATO lift the sanctions when he decides to go home?  Ukraine for bankrupting your country.  How is that a good trade off?

 

There's no hind sight analysis going on. I posted it on various forums 8 years ago when this was first happening. You think I should have been posting on surly all about it any time since then? People would have told me to get the fuck out of here with my weird obsessions. 

I have no idea what the reason is for the exact timing. Only Putin knows that. What I do know is what we are seeing today was always inevitable after Yanukovych fled Ukraine and the leadership in Kiev over the intervening years constantly tilted towards Europe. Other than Putin's death. That would have made it less inevitable. This is akin to a Crusade for Jerusalem for Putin. That's the context for how this should be considered. 

And yeah, bankrupting his country is seen as a good tradeoff for Putin. I'm sure he believes he can withstand the sanctions. Probably thinks it can make his country stronger in a variety of ways. And eventually western countries will look to do business with Russia one way or another. Maybe even have more friendly outlooks elected in some of the European countries. Possibly even the US, if you watch what many Republicans are saying right now. I'm not saying he's calculated all the costs accurately. I don't think there's any way he could have done that. Nor do you and I actually know what those costs are going to be, or how long they'll last.

What I do know is that he wanted to do this so badly he convinced himself in some way that no matter how bad it was going to be, it was still worth it. And with no one in Russia capable of telling him anything other than what he wants to hear without severe repercussions to their standard of living, and possibly their ability to draw oxygen, this is what we get.

[FartingMonk 3606]

10 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

There's no hind sight analysis going on. I posted it on various forums 8 years ago when this was first happening. You think I should have been posting on surly all about it any time since then? People would have told me to get the fuck out of here with my weird obsessions. 

I have no idea what the reason is for the exact timing. Only Putin knows that. What I do know is what we are seeing today was always inevitable after Yanukovych fled Ukraine and the leadership in Kiev over the intervening years constantly tilted towards Europe. Other than Putin's death. That would have made it less inevitable. This is akin to a Crusade for Jerusalem for Putin. That's the context for how this should be considered. 

And yeah, bankrupting his country is seen as a good tradeoff for Putin. I'm sure he believes he can withstand the sanctions. Probably thinks it can make his country stronger in a variety of ways. And eventually western countries will look to do business with Russia one way or another. Maybe even have more friendly outlooks elected in some of the European countries. Possibly even the US, if you watch what many Republicans are saying right now. I'm not saying he's calculated all the costs accurately. I don't think there's any way he could have done that. Nor do you and I actually know what those costs are going to be, or how long they'll last.

What I do know is that he wanted to do this so badly he convinced himself in some way that no matter how bad it was going to be, it was still worth it. And with no one in Russia capable of telling him anything other than what he wants to hear without severe repercussions to their standard of living, and possibly their ability to draw oxygen, this is what we get.

That sounds like the goal of a man who knows he is dying.  

[SL Xpress 7513]

2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

There are plenty of irrational people who are prepared to accept the consequences of their actions.  They might be depressed or paranoid and think whatever they’re doing is necessary as a last resort, they might have some delusion like thinking they’re Jesus Christ reincarnated, or all kinds of other irrational underlying reasons that motivate the behavior.  But - if you were to accept their irrational bedrock assumptions - their actions that follow from those assumptions are actually logical.  Not all, or even most, mentally distressed people are barking at the moon with no rhyme or reason.

Putin’s risk/reward calculation here is highly questionable, and if we understand his motivation correctly, it borders on delusional.  Wreck your own economy, withdraw from global commerce, enter into what is likely to be a long term quagmire trying to keep Ukraine occupied, all because … it hurts your ego that Ukraine isn’t part of Russia and under your control?  Or because you think this is a last stand against the imminent threat of NATO and Western values?

I think there is a certain level of irrationality baked in when an autocratic dictator attacks other nations for purely expansionist reasons and risks starting a world war, but in this case it seems like an especially poor strategic choice.  He didn’t have a bad thing going for himself in Russia.  He just risked it all for what amounts to an attempt to satisfy his own emotional needs, if your analysis is correct (which it probably is).

He may be prepared to accept the consequences of his actions, but it seems more like the guy who is prepared to accept the consequences of killing his ex-wife in a jealous rage than the guy who has a brilliant evil plan that objectively could be worth the risk if you’re not bound by any sense of morality. 

 

More like the guy who decides to kidnap and lock his ex-wife in the bedroom with 24 hour guards supervising her, but yeah.

The key thing for me is the world truly uniting and keeping these sanctions going for years regardless of the human cost to the people of Ukraine and Russia. I'm not saying it can't be done. I am saying that it's going to be a challenge in a lot of ways. Also, Putin's mortality has to play into it on some level. He may see this as his last grand act before he shuffles off this mortal coil.

I don't know. For me measuring someone willing to start a war as automatically irrational means we're measuring it in terms of everyday people. To have worked oneself into the position where you have that much power in the first place takes a certain mindset. He has shown ruthlessness, charisma, and a thirst for being seen in the context of greatness, throughout his life. Many of his actions would be considered irrational. I understand the costs of many of those actions don't have the costs that starting an expansionist war includes, but none of them have the same reward, either. If Russia manages to hold onto Ukraine for the rest of its existence (which I don't believe will happen and certainly hope it won't) then as long as that continues Putin is going to be seen as a Russian hero with a special significance for finally uniting Ukraine and Russia together inseparably just as divine destiny would call for. What price is that worth? That's not a logical process to you and me, but within the context of being a megalomaniac, an obvious psychopath, and an absolute ruler who is obsessed with his place in history, is it?

So yeah, I guess in a limited context it's irrational, but to me someone who is in that position in the first place probably acts within a substrate of irrationality as far as I'm concerned, to be there at all.

[956 Worldwide 34704]

One more thing: In Putin’s deranged announcement of war, he told Russia that Russian forces are going in to de-Nazify Ukraine.  I can’t explain the gravity and and anger Russians feel over the Second War and Putin chose this lie carefully.  It is the only one that Russians will accept to justify attacking and killing Ukrainians.  And it makes Putin’s invocation all the more disgusting. 

I have also tried to explain that Russians have even less access to real information than we think they do, and that even if they do, the system is such that it’s of no use to them anyway. 
 

This isn’t to apologize for Russia or absolve Russians of their responsibility.  I think my Russia hawk stance here is impeccable. But as this unfolds it’s important not to cave to the mass hatred of a group of people, the sort that Putin deployed as a defense of his crimes.  This responsibility lies with Putin and his enablers— even as the sanctions and other measure we deploy will be entirely just and will inevitably bite ordinary Russians.

Slava Ukraini! 

[SL Xpress 7513]

4 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

That sounds like the goal of a man who knows he is dying.  

Well, we're all dying. It's just that certain circumstances remind us of it more than others. Those circumstances come up a lot more when you're 70 than when you're younger than that.

But yeah, if it came out that Putin dies of liver cancer 6 months from now, we'll for sure have our answer. I don't think it even takes that. Maybe his back hurts him every day all of a sudden. Maybe the viagra can't even get him hard any more. Maybe he takes 40 pills every day just trying to keep his health up wondering if it's really worth it. Who knows? I can guarantee you other 70 year olds on this board can tell you they feel their mortality a lot more now than they did when they were younger even if they don't have a chronic condition.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

24 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

There's no hind sight analysis going on. I posted it on various forums 8 years ago when this was first happening. You think I should have been posting on surly all about it any time since then? People would have told me to get the fuck out of here with my weird obsessions. 

I think what my man @FartingMonk, if I may, is trying to convey is that that there are folk on here that have been discussing this and gaming it out for weeks, if not longer. 
Some work professionally in the space tangentially, some directly. 
There are folks that nailed some moves and almost everyone had something wrong guessed.

It is intriguing to me how there are new posters into this thread, as it’s always a positive for citizens to know what’s going on geopolitically.

Just spitballing here, but your posts may come across as I told y’all so and borderline arrogant. A mi, no importa. 
I never understand people’s obsession with “I was right,” mentality. Maybe some folk want that on their tombstone.

Whether people saw all this coming or didn’t, doesn’t make a rat’s ass.

We all lost on this one. And so did humanity. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[52-80 19147]

53 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

RTS Index is down 42% right now and dropping. It has lost over 52% in the last 5 days. 

What is the Putin calculus for the n'th phase of this thing?  They'll get some petro revenue from a limited number of importers and what?  His country is going to be crippled.  The people are going to turn

[SL Xpress 7513]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

One more thing: In Putin’s deranged announcement of war, he told Russia that Russian forces are going in to de-Nazify Ukraine.  I can’t explain the gravity and and anger Russians feel over the Second War and Putin chose this lie carefully.  It is the only one that Russians will accept to justify attacking and killing Ukrainians.  And it makes Putin’s invocation all the more disgusting. 

I have also tried to explain that Russians have even less access to real information than we think they do, and that even if they do, the system is such that it’s of no use to them anyway. 
 

This isn’t to apologize for Russia or absolve Russians of their responsibility.  I think my Russia hawk stance here is impeccable. But as this unfolds it’s important not to cave to the mass hatred of a group of people, the sort that Putin deployed as a defense of his crimes.  This responsibility lies with Putin and his enablers— even as the sanctions and other measure we deploy will be entirely just and will inevitably bite ordinary Russians.

Slava Ukraini! 

It's not the first time the term has been used. I have a long post where I mention it.

It's not just World War II or the German invasion and the devastation it wrought. Just like with the Serbs in Yugoslavia, there are specific stories told about the OUN, and especially Stepan Bandera, who was recognized as a Hero of Ukraine by Yushchenko in 2010, only to have it annulled the next year when the Russian speaking Yanukovych took power. The Europe leaning Ukrainian leaders have always been associated with Naziism in Russian propaganda. Always. This is a message that is repeated over and over again. Like you are saying, this is powerful, loaded language in general, but it has very specific historically significant context when used with Ukraine. And it's very effective. 

As far as responsibility, there's plenty to go around. Just like with the ill fated Weimar Republic, the Boris Yeltsin presidency was practically doomed from the beginning. I don't know if massive support for Russia would have done any good, but if I'd been in charge of the world in the 90s, I would have been putting together a Marshall Plan to try to lift Russia into some kind of sustainable economic success founded on rule of law. I remember hosting judges from Russia as part of an exchange group as they attempted to learn culturally what it meant to have an independent judiciary. I remember talking to business people trying to convince me of the economic opportunities in Russia. I told them all the same thing. Culturally Russia has always been most comfortable with a supreme ruler who projected Russian strength. Much like Germany, and particularly Prussia. There was inevitably going to be a move to an autocratic government, just like there was with Hitler, and that leader would likely be expansionist, because that's how these things work. 

So I'd partially blame the West's inability to make Russia a massive project in bringing them to the West when the opportunity arose. Probably it doesn't work out. If you want to hear a funny story about how Russia operated under Yeltsin I highly recommend Bert Kreischer's The Machine. But in the proper context, it's depressing as hell, too.

[Hook1997 5351]

29 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I have also tried to explain that Russians have even less access to real information than we think they do, and that even if they do, the system is such that it’s of no use to them anyway. 

I mean come on, plenty of Russian’s have internet without restrictions, are on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, the old periscope, tic tok, anything on the internet ect.  Plenty of Russians are on them and still idolize American culture and follow it and our celbs.  You make it sound like it’s North Korea.  It’s not.  Russian’s in bfe without internet maybe but come on with that bs.  There’s a reason Russian brides are a huge thing, they know and want to get out. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Hook1997

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

11 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

What is the Putin calculus for the n'th phase of this thing?  They'll get some petro revenue from a limited number of importers and what?  His country is going to be crippled.  The people are going to turn

Your guess is as good as mine, my good sir. Predicting the maneuvers of a sociopath is not my strength.
Switzerland has already agreed not to be a work around.

If and/or when Russia gets locked out of SWIFT, that could lead to some internal unrest, as their economy will be severely crippled for years. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[SL Xpress 7513]

18 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

I think what my man @FartingMonk, if I may, is trying to convey is that that there are folk on here that have been discussing this and gaming it out for weeks, if not longer. 
Some work professionally in the space tangentially, some directly. 
There are folks that nailed some moves and almost everyone had something wrong guessed.

It is intriguing to me how there are new posters into this thread, as it’s always a positive for citizens to know what’s going on geopolitically.

Just spitballing here, but your posts may come across as I told y’all so and borderline arrogant. A mi, no importa. 
I never understand people’s obsession with “I was right,” mentality. Maybe some folk want that on their tombstone.

Whether people saw all this coming or didn’t, doesn’t make a rat’s ass.

We all lost on this one. And so did humanity. 

 

All of that is fair. I didn't see any purpose in posting about it on surly until the invasion actually kicked off. 

But when people talk about the war expanding because Russia is going to attack grounded jets landing in Romania, to me it's because they consider all of this complete madness, and all they can consider are worst case scenarios. Which is fine.

But within a certain context, it all makes sense. I might be able to find posts on different boards discussing foreign policy where I went into detail about all of it, but no one wants to read that shit. The funniest ones were on boards populated by the Russian disinformation wing. 

Within the context of Putin always wanting Ukraine to be in Russia's sphere of influence, and seething at the core of his being at every move towards Europe (truly seeing it as the manifestation of Ukrainian cooperation with Nazi Germany), and the corruption of good Russian stock with the demonic influences of the progressive west, some of the things that seem to be provoking, "Holy shit! What a madman!" to me make a lot of sense.

I don't care all that much about being right. I mean, I do when I post about sports takes, but on this one, or politics in general, I have no desire to be right, to be honest. It's going to be a horrible horrible human catastrophe. But fear based speculation on what is going to occur next with fanciful narratives regarding what NATO or Russia might do to provoke an escalation don't make sense to me. NATO is going to hang Ukraine out to dry, and Russia is going to be devastating and ruthless in their extermination of anything they perceive as a threat to Ukraine being firmly under their thumb, both in the initial military action, and the following occupation. And that's how it's going to go down, and we're all going to post on a meaningless forum while in our homes half way across the globe and watch helplessly. And it's going to suck.

[FartingMonk 3606]

29 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

I think what my man @FartingMonk, if I may, is trying to convey is that that there are folk on here that have been discussing this and gaming it out for weeks, if not longer. 
Some work professionally in the space tangentially, some directly. 
There are folks that nailed some moves and almost everyone had something wrong guessed.

It is intriguing to me how there are new posters into this thread, as it’s always a positive for citizens to know what’s going on geopolitically.

Just spitballing here, but your posts may come across as I told y’all so and borderline arrogant. A mi, no importa. 
I never understand people’s obsession with “I was right,” mentality. Maybe some folk want that on their tombstone.

Whether people saw all this coming or didn’t, doesn’t make a rat’s ass.

We all lost on this one. And so did humanity. 

Thanks for explaining it.  Less than an hour after the attack he jumps in and all of a sudden is like yo man.  A blind pig could have saw this coming.  I'm so shocked that none of y'all saw it.  I saw it from a mile away.  I'm just shocked that y'all didn't see it coming 

[956 Worldwide 34704]

15 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

I mean come on, plenty of Russian’s have internet without restrictions, are on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, the old periscope, tic tok, anything on the internet ect.  Plenty of Russians are on them and still idolize American cloture and follow it.  You make it sound like it’s North Korea.  It’s not.  Russian’s in bfe without internet maybe but come on with that bs 

Man, I have the only semi-opposition online Russian TV channels (Dozhd, which is anti-war) playing in the background and it began, like every broadcast, with a mandatory warning that it is a product of foreign agents.

The point here is not that the access doesn’t exist and can’t be sought out, it’s that the environment is manipulated in a way that most people cannot fully appreciate.  If 2020-2022 taught us anything it’s that vast numbers of people are not cognitively equipped to navigate even an open information environment, let alone one that is heavily manipulated.  Periscope and TikTok ain’t for shit for some retired accountant in her flat in Yaroslavl who hears about imaginary Ukrainian Nazis on Channel 1 every night. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[SL Xpress 7513]

11 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

I mean come on, plenty of Russian’s have internet without restrictions, are on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, the old periscope, tic tok, anything on the internet ect.  Plenty of Russians are on them and still idolize American culture and follow it and our celbs.  You make it sound like it’s North Korea.  It’s not.  Russian’s in bfe without internet maybe but come on with that bs.  There’s a reason Russian brides are a huge thing, they know and want to get out. 

There are no Russians who have internet without restrictions. I'm not saying there aren't ways of getting around those restrictions, but they're universal.

Also, one of the trends the internet has solidified is the general desire for the population in the aggregate to seek out information that confirms our world view. I'm not saying it's universal, because it absolutely isn't. But if you're someone being fed information that confirms your preconceived vision of the world, the desire to seek out alternative sources of information approaches zero.

[Hook1997 5351]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Man, I have one of the only semi-opposition online Russian TV channels (Dozhd, which is anti-war) playing in the background and it began, like every broadcast, with a mandatory warning that it is a product of foreign agents.

The point here is not that the access doesn’t exist and can’t be sought out, it’s that the environment is manipulated in a way that most people cannot fully appreciate.  If 2020-2022 taught us anything it’s that vast numbers of people are not cognitively equipped to navigate even an open information environment, let alone one that is heavily manipulated.  Periscope and TikTok ain’t for shit for some retired accountant in her flat in Yaroslavl who hears about imaginary Ukrainian Nazis on Channel 1 every night. 

I mean I get government run media but a lot of the people there under 50 know the deal and have had foreign exposure and don’t buy all that bs I would say. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

All of that is fair. I didn't see any purpose in posting about it on surly until the invasion actually kicked off. 

But when people talk about the war expanding because Russia is going to attack grounded jets landing in Romania, to me it's because they consider all of this complete madness, and all they can consider are worst case scenarios. Which is fine.

But within a certain context, it all makes sense. I might be able to find posts on different boards discussing foreign policy where I went into detail about all of it, but no one wants to read that shit. The funniest ones were on boards populated by the Russian disinformation wing. 

Within the context of Putin always wanting Ukraine to be in Russia's sphere of influence, and seething at the core of his being at every move towards Europe (truly seeing it as the manifestation of Ukrainian cooperation with Nazi Germany), and the corruption of good Russian stock with the demonic influences of the progressive west, some of the things that seem to be provoking, "Holy shit! What a madman!" to me make a lot of sense.

I don't care all that much about being right. I mean, I do when I post about sports takes, but on this one, or politics in general, I have no desire to be right, to be honest. It's going to be a horrible horrible human catastrophe. But fear based speculation on what is going to occur next with fanciful narratives regarding what NATO or Russia might do to provoke an escalation don't make sense to me. NATO is going to hang Ukraine out to dry, and Russia is going to be devastating and ruthless in their extermination of anything they perceive as a threat to Ukraine being firmly under their thumb, both in the initial military action, and the following occupation. And that's how it's going to go down, and we're all going to post on a meaningless forum while in our homes half way across the globe and watch helplessly. And it's going to suck.

No one said it was going to cause NATO to jump in.  We were saying that's how you get NATO to edge closer.  One incident yeah, not gonna happen.  Two incidents and civilians die.  You get a little closer.  And so on and so forth.  It's the surprise that Russia is so willing to engage so close to the border on a sort of meaningless target.  

[pacman 7355]

This twitter has a lot of material

 

[Hook1997 5351]

13 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

There are no Russians who have internet without restrictions. I'm not saying there aren't ways of getting around those restrictions, but they're universal.

Also, one of the trends the internet has solidified is the general desire for the population in the aggregate to seek out information that confirms our world view. I'm not saying it's universal, because it absolutely isn't. But if you're someone being fed information that confirms your preconceived vision of the world, the desire to seek out alternative sources of information approaches zero.

So Russian brides trying to leave are approved by the government?  The people on periscope back in the day were silenced, Twitter ppl posting the troop movements a few days ago were shut down, chat rooms, Facebook, ect.  Ok maybe I’m wrong but what was shut down before war time things getting wiped right now?  I just think the internet control has been less than you think. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Hook1997

[SL Xpress 7513]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Man, I have one of the only semi-opposition online Russian TV channels (Dozhd, which is anti-war) playing in the background and it began, like every broadcast, with a mandatory warning that it is a product of foreign agents.

The point here is not that the access doesn’t exist and can’t be sought out, it’s that the environment is manipulated in a way that most people cannot fully appreciate.  If 2020-2022 taught us anything it’s that vast numbers of people are not cognitively equipped to navigate even an open information environment, let alone one that is heavily manipulated.  Periscope and TikTok ain’t for shit for some retired accountant in her flat in Yaroslavl who hears about imaginary Ukrainian Nazis on Channel 1 every night. 

I just think the internet has allowed us to lean in to our desire to form tribes. Then once we find our tribes we create litmus tests that automatically include or exclude you from the tribe. And with the internet, it doesn't matter how out of the norm your particular identity might be, it's highly likely you can find a community that represents your particular niche. Which then helps to normalize that identity, regardless. 

We used to think not having curators would help us being able to seek out and discern the truth more readily. What has been done instead is that we've lost the societal ability to determine truth from fiction, so we just go with what fits our preconceived narrative. Bad actors have jumped on this to pump out false information, while constantly decrying fake news, so we rely more and more on our fellow tribe members to help us determine what's true or false. Which just perpetuates everything.

[staboner 4969]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

All of this could have been prevented if Russia had a minister of diversity and equity 

you misspelled equality HR

[staboner 4969]

some wordy mofos in these parts. the 'i told you so' to knowledge ratio has certainly been altered the last hour or so

[SL Xpress 7513]

9 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

So Russian brides trying to leave are approved by the government?  The people on periscope back in the day were silenced, Twitter ppl posting the troop movements a few days ago were shut down, chat rooms, Facebook, ect.  Ok maybe I’m wrong but what was shut down before war time things getting wiped right now?  I just think the internet control has been less than you think. 

Or it's more than you think.

When I say there are restrictions, I'm not saying they've shut everything down that's not approved. I'm saying they've shut everything down that's not approved that's within their manpower and budget to do so. Or else they're putting out information to discredit sources deemed critical to the state. 

To have restrictions doesn't mean it's all encompassing. Having restrictions means not having the same kind of access you or I do. Which is absolutely universal.

[SL Xpress 7513]

24 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Thanks for explaining it.  Less than an hour after the attack he jumps in and all of a sudden is like yo man.  A blind pig could have saw this coming.  I'm so shocked that none of y'all saw it.  I saw it from a mile away.  I'm just shocked that y'all didn't see it coming 

Well, my apologies for offending anyone. I can understand why that's a turnoff. But I am legitimately surprised by the reactions on this thread. Or the reactions of anyone else who seems shocked at what's going down. Particularly anything regarding Russia's aggression in prosecuting the war. The only limit they're going to have is the border of Ukraine with Poland, Slovania, Hungary, and Romania. I think we all know Russia's views towards civilian casualties. 

Also, get ready for the whataboutisms when the eventual death tolls do come in. It's like the sun rising in the east. Lots of comparisons to the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

[52-80 19147]

IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER AMIRABDOLLAHIAN SAYS UKRAINE CRISIS CAUSED BY NATO PROVOCATIONS

 

clowns everywhere

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

24 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Or it's more than you think.

When I say there are restrictions, I'm not saying they've shut everything down that's not approved. I'm saying they've shut everything down that's not approved that's within their manpower and budget to do so. Or else they're putting out information to discredit sources deemed critical to the state. 

To have restrictions doesn't mean it's all encompassing. Having restrictions means not having the same kind of access you or I do. Which is absolutely universal.

I've worked in print media for decades and I sometimes read RT as a philosopher and not a fan. Their propaganda skills are very, very strong. You'd be surprised at how much criticism of the government is condoned on there, but it is always thoroughly discredited (to their minds) elsewhere, as with purposefully stupid liberals Fox trots out to get their clocks cleaned on their opinion shows. RT really does allow a wide range of opinions but it's more in the goal of throwing shit against the wall and splintering people into easily controlled subgroups. The goal with this buckshot approach is to kill objective truth in a sea of babble of every persuasion to a degree you don't see here. Or I guess it's more accurate to say that in our mainstream press, the spectrum of printed opinion pieces is fairly narrow -- I'd characterize it as running from moderate left to a slightly more conservative voice on the right. In covering America Russians love to run both extremes. So long as you are radically opposed to what is happening here, they don't care if you think Sanders is a DINO or Trump should be tougher on border issues -- you can get a gig at RT. 

I've also sampled North Korean propaganda from the source and it's not even in the same universe. It still lives up to an extreme example of the stereotype I think most of us who grew up in the Cold War think media is like under an authoritarian regime. 

Sample headlines from today;

Foreign Personages Pay Congratulatory Visits to DPRK Missions

Rodong Sinmun on Revolutionary Features Peculiar to Korean People

Anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong Il's Visit to Potato-processing Factory Marked

With an occasional classic like this:

His Love Touches Heartstrings of All People: 

Spoiler

Selfless, Devoted Efforts for the People

One day in April Juche 101(2012), the respected General Secretary Kim Jong Un met with some officials. He taught them that they had to give priority to the people’s demands and interests in doing everything while regarding them as Heaven and respecting them, true to the noble intentions of President Kim Il Sung and Chairman Kim Jong Il, who had regarded it as their motto to believe in the people as in Heaven.

He told them that Party organizations should value and love the people with motherly affection and protect their political lives to the end.

His words implied that our Party had to be turned into a motherly one that takes warm care of the people’s destiny and future.

Looking around the officials lost in thought, the respected General Secretary continued that officials must devote their all to the people and that officials exist for the people, not vice versa. He stressed that officials must share weal and woe with the people and make selfless, devoted efforts for them.

Looking up to the respected General Secretary, officials made up their minds to dedicate everything to the people.

For 750 Years and Even 7 500 Years.

I wasn't able to dig up one of their ornery rants against us, Japan, or South Korea today but they are out there and are wildly entertaining, especially if you imagine them coming from College Station instead of Pyongyang. 

Anyway, what Putin has condoned is like a bizarro version of a free press that winds up being as effective at stifling dissent as in the old days of Pravda and TASS. Within Russia, you have great latitude in criticizing the government's actions, but the third rail is any kind of serious investigative reporting into the finances of the oligarchs close to Putin or the man himself. That's where you need to start building up your immunity to polonium or cease going anywhere higher than the second floor of buildings. 

[Leeroy Jenkins 2402]

1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

I mean come on, plenty of Russian’s have internet without restrictions, are on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, the old periscope, tic tok, anything on the internet ect.  Plenty of Russians are on them and still idolize American culture and follow it and our celbs.  You make it sound like it’s North Korea.  It’s not.  Russian’s in bfe without internet maybe but come on with that bs.  There’s a reason Russian brides are a huge thing, they know and want to get out. 

Have you paid attention to what propaganda is doing in our own country?

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

RTS Index is down 42% right now and dropping. It has lost over 52% in the last 5 days. 

How bad ass would it be if one of putins cronies takes one for the team and puts a bullet in vlads head because this is all so senseless

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How bad ass would it be if one of putins cronies takes one for the team and puts a bullet in vlads head because this is all so senseless

I would buy him a beer

[52-80 19147]

7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How bad ass would it be if one of putins cronies takes one for the team and puts a bullet in vlads head because this is all so senseless

while they have tons of their money divested and offshore, they still have business interests domiciled in russia... they cant be too happy about all this

[Telegraph_it 3357]

I am waiting for some footage where we see these helicopters getting picked off. 
 

edit: more helicopters and captured Russian soldiers? 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Telegraph_it

[SL Xpress 7513]

4 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I've worked in print media for decades and I sometimes read RT as a philosopher and not a fan. Their propaganda skills are very, very strong. You'd be surprised at how much criticism of the government is condoned on there, but it is always thoroughly discredited (to their minds) elsewhere, as with purposefully stupid liberals Fox trots out to get their clocks cleaned on their opinion shows. RT really does allow a wide range of opinions but it's more in the goal of throwing shit against the wall and splintering people into easily controlled subgroups. The goal with this buckshot approach is to kill objective truth in a sea of babble of every persuasion to a degree you don't see here. Or I guess it's more accurate to say that in our mainstream press, the spectrum of printed opinion pieces is fairly narrow -- I'd characterize it as running from moderate left to a slightly more conservative voice on the right. In covering America Russians love to run both extremes. So long as you are radically opposed to what is happening here, they don't care if you think Sanders is a DINO or Trump should be tougher on border issues -- you can get a gig at RT. 

I've also sampled North Korean propaganda from the source and it's not even in the same universe. It still lives up to an extreme example of the stereotype I think most of us who grew up in the Cold War think media is like under an authoritarian regime. 

Sample headlines from today;

Foreign Personages Pay Congratulatory Visits to DPRK Missions

Rodong Sinmun on Revolutionary Features Peculiar to Korean People

Anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong Il's Visit to Potato-processing Factory Marked

With an occasional classic like this:

His Love Touches Heartstrings of All People: 

  Reveal hidden contents

Selfless, Devoted Efforts for the People

One day in April Juche 101(2012), the respected General Secretary Kim Jong Un met with some officials. He taught them that they had to give priority to the people’s demands and interests in doing everything while regarding them as Heaven and respecting them, true to the noble intentions of President Kim Il Sung and Chairman Kim Jong Il, who had regarded it as their motto to believe in the people as in Heaven.

He told them that Party organizations should value and love the people with motherly affection and protect their political lives to the end.

His words implied that our Party had to be turned into a motherly one that takes warm care of the people’s destiny and future.

Looking around the officials lost in thought, the respected General Secretary continued that officials must devote their all to the people and that officials exist for the people, not vice versa. He stressed that officials must share weal and woe with the people and make selfless, devoted efforts for them.

Looking up to the respected General Secretary, officials made up their minds to dedicate everything to the people.

For 750 Years and Even 7 500 Years.

I wasn't able to dig up one of their ornery rants against us, Japan, or South Korea today but they are out there and are wildly entertaining, especially if you imagine them coming from College Station instead of Pyongyang. 

Anyway, what Putin has condoned is like a bizarro version of a free press that winds up being as effective at stifling dissent as in the old days of Pravda and TASS. Within Russia, you have great latitude in criticizing the government's actions, but the third rail is any kind of serious investigative reporting into the finances of the oligarchs close to Putin or the man himself. That's where you need to start building up your immunity to polonium or cease going anywhere higher than the second floor of buildings. 

Putin was brilliant employing the same strategy in politics. It's not that there wasn't an opposition party. It's that the opposition party allowed to exist was lead by a buffoon. Anything legitimate was destroyed by a variety of means, including assassination as a last resort.

Nixon's great evil was fixing the 1972 election. Did he stuff the ballot boxes the way LBJ did? No. He carefully orchestrated a discredit campaign for contenders for the Democratic nomination he felt were the most electable threats, starting with Ed Muskie, until he ended up facing George McGovern.

Same type of thing for Putin. 

I remember in the days before the internet, in the 70s and 80s. Every week I'd read the Big 3 newsweeklies - Time, Newsweek, US News & World Report, plus a handful of Sunday papers. I was incredulous at how much jingoism was contained in all of them, and how US-centric they all were. It's like someone sent out a memo about the hot topics of the week and the stances to take, so everyone could get on the same page. It was such a breath of fresh air when I found The Economist - not because it was so incredibly radical in tone, but that I didn't feel like I was reading such Ptolemaic view of world politics, with the US at its center. 

Back then I felt the world would be better off, and the US in particular, if people could go beyond the confines of their local newspaper or newsmagazine to read the news. Now I feel so incredibly naive. I'm very far from a radical. I consider myself very conservative in a lot of ways. But I do feel like it's important to have our views challenged by legitimate discourse and research. All of us. And to at least try to understand the other point of view of whatever important topic is at hand.

In any case, your insights about RT are fascinating. I don't think I've watched any news program consistently for 15+ years. I used to watch the MacNeil/Lehrer Report back in the day, and the Sunday talk shows were must viewing. But ever since Fox News showed you could maximize your profits by catering to a specific demographic, it's all gone to crap. Hell, I hated the mainstream network news at the time because they never went in depth on issues.

I'd love to share a beer with you some time and listen to you talk about your career. Journalism is such a dirty word nowadays, and that makes me sad. The Fourth Estate has been a huge pillar of our country since its founding, for good and not so good. I wish it had a higher esteem in the public eye than it does. But then I regularly scream at kids to get the hell off my lawn, too, so what do I know. 

Don't know if you ever read David Halberstam's The Powers That Be. My favorite book I've ever read on print media.

Thank you for the response.

[Buzzrock 14903]

Well, my apologies for offending anyone. I can understand why that's a turnoff. But I am legitimately surprised by the reactions on this thread. Or the reactions of anyone else who seems shocked at what's going down. Particularly anything regarding Russia's aggression in prosecuting the war. The only limit they're going to have is the border of Ukraine with Poland, Slovania, Hungary, and Romania. I think we all know Russia's views towards civilian casualties. 
Also, get ready for the whataboutisms when the eventual death tolls do come in. It's like the sun rising in the east. Lots of comparisons to the US in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

The people who live there didn’t even think it would happen. Look at the crowded highways leaving Ukraine towards Poland.

[52-80 19147]

its really something else visually watching a war unfold in real time as reported by citizens using mobile phones, compared to waiting for news television rehashing the same footage pushed through the wire services

[Buzzrock 14903]

Just now, 52-80 said:

its really something else visually watching a war unfold in real time as reported by citizens using mobile phones, compared to waiting for news television rehashing the same footage pushed through the wire services

I loathe having to watch this coverage on 24 hour news. So far Twitter has been pretty good.