Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[SL Xpress 7,516]

5 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

The people who live there didn’t even think it would happen. Look at the crowded highways leaving Ukraine towards Poland.

Yeah, I thought they were idiots, too.

"Oh, that crazy Russia. Things will be fine. He's just trying to scare us."

 

No, he's a fucking megalomaniac psychopath that heads a nuclear power and the second strongest military in the world, that's obsessed with your native country in ways I don't think you have a good grasp of. Oh, and he controls the border on 3 sides. That he's now placed 190,000 troops on. He's coming, and it's imminent.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

Watching the NATO meeting right now on BBC and NATO is basically being a bitch 

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

Footage of bodies strewn about near military hardware showing up on twitter now. Most tweets in Cyrillic so I don’t know context. 
 

edit: Russian it seems. 
 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Telegraph_it

[FartingMonk 3,608]

The UN will cease to exist after this.  NATO is going to look weak as fuck

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

16 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Back then I felt the world would be better off, and the US in particular, if people could go beyond the confines of their local newspaper or newsmagazine to read the news. Now I feel so incredibly naive. I'm very far from a radical. I consider myself very conservative in a lot of ways. But I do feel like it's important to have our views challenged by legitimate discourse and research. All of us. And to at least try to understand the other point of view of I spewhatever important topic is at hand.

I spent three years pre-career living in England with my future ex-wife living as more or less an ordinary chav in northern England. At the time I was very impressed and envious that you had a national print media that was nakedly partisan, running from the Guardian and Independent on the left through the Times and the Telegraph on the right. (I guess with Economist trying to hold the center of these two flanks.) Because I believed and still believe that "objective journalism" is more a myth than an attainable reality, I thought it would be cool if there were American versions of outlets like these. Naive doesn't even begin to describe how wrong I was.

Sorry for the derail, y'all, and SL, if you ever in the wilds of southern Brazoria County, give me a holler. 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

its really something else visually watching a war unfold in real time as reported by citizens using mobile phones, compared to waiting for news television rehashing the same footage pushed through the wire services

 

Yeah, I remember the same feeling when Russia took over Crimea and then when the Donbas separation first occurred. Watching the obvious Russian special forces kicking in doors and pointing guns at local law enforcement or administrators from footage on cell phones peaking over window ledges was both fascinating and frightening. 

The Russian Roulette series on Vice by Simon Ostrovsky is the most riveting series of journalism I've ever watched. I don't know if anyone can do anything like that ever again - or even if they should - but if someone could somehow guarantee me they'd come out safe at the other end (I know, impossible) I sure wish it could be done.

[Leeroy Jenkins 2,409]

 

[52-80 19,204]

2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

The Russian Roulette series on Vice by Simon Ostrovsky is the most riveting series of journalism I've ever watched. I don't know if anyone can do anything like that ever again - or even if they should - but if someone could somehow guarantee me they'd come out safe at the other end (I know, impossible) I sure wish it could be done.

another thing to binge watch on youtube.  thanks for the ref

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

has a V spray painted. So it didn’t come from Belarus I guess. 
 

edit: 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Telegraph_it

[SL Xpress 7,516]

2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The UN will cease to exist after this.  NATO is going to look weak as fuck

These are silly takes. The UN is not there to do anything. The veto power of the Security Council ensures this. The UN is to give the world a standard place to have some form of communication and to try to effect world opinion. The UN has always been an incredibly impotent, inept organization when it comes to keeping world peace. This will have no impact on it whatsoever.

And what do you expect NATO to do? On the one hand you worry about the war escalating. On the other you say that NATO is a bitch. Do you understand the cognitive dissonance that requires? NATO is not going to do shit. They will do everything they can to make sure this war stays within the borders of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Russia. Anyone who expected NATO to do something here other than send a pretend force to the Baltic States and Poland as cannon fodder to declare war if anything happened there, and to reassure those countries that NATO would live up to its treaty obligations, was being naive. There are going to be a hellacious amount of deaths, and we're going to watch and do nothing other than crippling economic sanctions. If you're a hardass, hope that those economic sanctions are as hard hitting as possible, and last a long long time. Because chances are that won't occur.

[52-80 19,204]

presented without comment:

https://www.reuters.com/world/eying-inflation-us-unlikely-block-russia-oil-sales-if-putin-invades-officials-2022-02-23/

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia's crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, administration officials told Reuters.

 

[52-80 19,204]

Lithuania declares state of emergency

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

its really something else visually watching a war unfold in real time as reported by citizens using mobile phones, compared to waiting for news television rehashing the same footage pushed through the wire services

This is going to be something else. Commanders gotta be pulling hairs out because some nerd in America geolocates every move on tik tok or constantly monitoring flight radar 24.


Plus Eastern euros don’t give a shit. Oh a downed Russian helicopter? Where’s my cellphone?

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

presented without comment:

https://www.reuters.com/world/eying-inflation-us-unlikely-block-russia-oil-sales-if-putin-invades-officials-2022-02-23/

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia's crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, administration officials told Reuters.

 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

another thing to binge watch on youtube.  thanks for the ref

I can't speak for how it's aged. I just remember watching them when they'd come out going, "What the fuck are you doing? Are you a fucking madman?" 

It was like watching storm chasers, if tornados shot missiles, artillery shells, and AK-47s. 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

 

I mean, it's what Putin is counting on. People calling the guy a madman on here because of the consequences. I mean, there's undoubtedly going to be extremely severe consequences, but how severe, and how long? It's why Europe has had such a hard time getting on the same page regarding Russia. And Putin knows how to lever those cracks. If Biden gets too far ahead of his European allies he's at risk of alienating them to the point they don't follow US leadership at all. 

The problem is, the most important priority has never been to dissuade Putin from aggression in Ukraine, or other non NATO areas. And it's not the most important priority now. People like to bluff that it is, and then Putin calls their bluff and we all see it for what it is. 

It's like dealing with a bully, threatening him you're going to punch him in the face if he steals that kid's lunch money again. Then when he does it, you didn't really want to fight him in the first place, so you convince everyone not to loan him a pen if he doesn't have one instead. 

[South Austin 52,523]

On top of all this, my kids’ schools were delayed two hours because it’s really cold outside.

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

I mean, it's what Putin is counting on. People calling the guy a madman on here because of the consequences. I mean, there's undoubtedly going to be extremely severe consequences, but how severe, and how long? It's why Europe has had such a hard time getting on the same page regarding Russia. And Putin knows how to lever those cracks. If Biden gets too far ahead of his European allies he's at risk of alienating them to the point they don't follow US leadership at all. 

The problem is, the most important priority has never been to dissuade Putin from aggression in Ukraine, or other non NATO areas. And it's not the most important priority now. People like to bluff that it is, and then Putin calls their bluff and we all see it for what it is. 

It's like dealing with a bully, threatening him you're going to punch him in the face if he steals that kid's lunch money again. Then when he does it, you didn't really want to fight him in the first place, so you convince everyone not to loan him a pen if he doesn't have one instead. 

The time stamp on that was prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.  I think the fact that Congress is calling for Russia's removal from SWIFT (both sides of the aisle shockingly) might mean that that is very much on the table.

[Trey3216 15,349]

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Chelsea should be banned from league play immediately. Dead serious. Assets of all oligarchs need to be targeted.

If I’m CP10, I’m talking to the team and trying to walk off the pitch in their next match.  

[FartingMonk 3,608]

19 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

These are silly takes. The UN is not there to do anything. The veto power of the Security Council ensures this. The UN is to give the world a standard place to have some form of communication and to try to effect world opinion. The UN has always been an incredibly impotent, inept organization when it comes to keeping world peace. This will have no impact on it whatsoever.

And what do you expect NATO to do? On the one hand you worry about the war escalating. On the other you say that NATO is a bitch. Do you understand the cognitive dissonance that requires? NATO is not going to do shit. They will do everything they can to make sure this war stays within the borders of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, and Russia. Anyone who expected NATO to do something here other than send a pretend force to the Baltic States and Poland as cannon fodder to declare war if anything happened there, and to reassure those countries that NATO would live up to its treaty obligations, was being naive. There are going to be a hellacious amount of deaths, and we're going to watch and do nothing other than crippling economic sanctions. If you're a hardass, hope that those economic sanctions are as hard hitting as possible, and last a long long time. Because chances are that won't occur.

The UN is there for a form of communication but why the fuck would you join an organization that has no teeth when it's a big country vs a little country.  That's some league of nations bullshit.  That's what it was designed to stop.  If you just talk then there is nothing good if there is no consequences

NATO is being a bitch because they sat there with absolute no response.  They asked about Turkey and a blockade.  They said oh no.  We won't discuss that.  That's Turkeys call.  

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

The time stamp on that was prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.  I think the fact that Congress is calling for Russia's removal from SWIFT (both sides of the aisle shockingly) might mean that that is very much on the table.

Not sure SWIFT is the end all be all sanction. Russia can still use telex. 
 

Now not allowing USD as intermediary for forex would be something. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

27 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

presented without comment:

https://www.reuters.com/world/eying-inflation-us-unlikely-block-russia-oil-sales-if-putin-invades-officials-2022-02-23/

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia's crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, administration officials told Reuters.

 

Requires a cynical "French shrug" emoji we don't have

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

Are there any Russians on the ISS right now? That has to be awkward. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

1 minute ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Requires a cynical "French shrug" emoji we don't have

I would like to also point out that since that article came out right before 5:00 PM EST yesterday, the UK and some other Euro countries are clearly saying that they are going to cut off oil.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/u-k-allies-to-agree-to-massive-package-of-russian-sanctions?sref=knoriXqz

 

[52-80 19,204]

More than half of Russia's GDP is export of energy.  Top 3 of 5 importers are EU states.  In terms of Russia's output, not much goes to US, but from US' perspective they are is 2nd largest exporter (after Canada). 

The US + EU has already had sanction on certain hydrocarbon technology transfer vs Russia (i deal with it at work), which has mostly been superficial.   If they want to impose REAL sanction, they better do it here, but it's obviously difficult.

Oil and gas had already been in a tightttt spot for the preceding months (crude touched 100 today).... this fucker did really time it perfectly.

 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

6 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

It's still early here, so coverage is just now catching up, but I will give you a sneak preview of the German reaction:

 

Just a quick take on this, as I will be on calls the rest of the afternoon, but the Germans govt is clearly absolutely stunned. The government has definitely fallen into line with complete support of any sanctions to be taken against Russia, and I think any "Russia-versteher" sentiment has probably been evaporated forever as of today.

 

 But...as typical German thinking goes, the government has already shifted the public focus on the soon-to-be-influx of Ukrainian refugees and while everything from the Govenment podiums will be "we will take everyone in this time of crisis", there are already rumbles of "oh great....here we go again." And the Greens have been the ones essentially leading the PR push today, and, well, let's just say they haven't necessarily been confidence-inspiring. Timid...talking about how all can come as the costs to house them is "is just money and we will borrow what we don't have", which is not really the way to do this with Germans. Rather clunky performance so far.

 

The number of up to 5 million potential refugees has been thrown around and that, without a doubt, will quickly cause social issues. I cannot stress how wobbly the coalition has become even before today, and the only thing that will save it is that the opposition CDU wants no part of ruliing during this crisis, as even someone as reassuring to the German people as Mama Merkel would be unable to handle what is coming.

 

So, in short, my take is that the Germans are going to publicly be very much in the corner of the alliance, but there are some definite concerns behind the curtains that this is going to be too much for the government to manage coherently if the refugee flows don't stay largely in Poland. Which they inevitably won't.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

4 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Not sure SWIFT is the end all be all sanction. Russia can still use telex. 
 

Now not allowing USD as intermediary for forex would be something. 

I believe that was part of the plan.  Cut them off from USD, Euro, and Yen.  Might be what comes out of the G7.

 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

7 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

The time stamp on that was prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.  I think the fact that Congress is calling for Russia's removal from SWIFT (both sides of the aisle shockingly) might mean that that is very much on the table.

To me that's the most important thing. 

But Europe is going to be scared as to how they get their oil and natural gas requirements supplied. As far as I'm concerned, removal from SWIFT needs to happen as soon as possible. To be fair, I don't understand all of the consequences to the West of doing so. I'm sure there's not some magic switch to pull and suddenly Russia is disconnected. I do, however, feel strongly that if we're not going to do anything to help those people on the ground in Ukraine - which we're not - we should all be willing to suffer the economic discomforts that placing the strongest restrictions on the Russian economy will entail. And again, I should emphasize, I don't actually have a good idea for what all of those consequences might be, so there's a lot of tough guy talking out of my ass going on here, as well.

[52-80 19,204]

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I would like to also point out that since that article came out right before 5:00 PM EST yesterday, the UK and some other Euro countries are clearly saying that they are going to cut off oil.  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/u-k-allies-to-agree-to-massive-package-of-russian-sanctions?sref=knoriXqz

this winter has been painful to europe.  nat gas has 5x in price.  norway, uk, finland (off the top of my head),  and a handful of other states has already had to add NEW subsidies for electricity for residents.  cutting off russia energy is tough

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

Seems like Saudi might have a role to play in this conflict.  I have gotten the impression through following OPEC that they aren't Russia's biggest fan.  So the rest of the world cutting off Russia's oil and gas industry might be a good thing for them.  And they might get the rest of the Mideast players in OPEC (except for IRAN) to play ball for a bit to help offset the impact of Russia.  

But in any case, the US, the UK, and Europe should absolutely push an oil and gas embargo. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,817]

On top of all this, my kids’ schools were delayed two hours because it’s really cold outside.

[SL Xpress 7,516]

8 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Just a quick take on this, as I will be on calls the rest of the afternoon, but the Germans govt is clearly absolutely stunned. The government has definitely fallen into line with complete support of any sanctions to be taken against Russia, and I think any "Russia-versteher" sentiment has probably been evaporated forever as of today.

 

 But...as typical German thinking goes, the government has already shifted the public focus on the soon-to-be-influx of Ukrainian refugees and while everything from the Govenment podiums will be "we will take everyone in this time of crisis", there are already rumbles of "oh great....here we go again." And the Greens have been the ones essentially leading the PR push today, and, well, let's just say they haven't necessarily been confidence-inspiring. Timid...talking about how all can come as the costs to house them is "is just money and we will borrow what we don't have", which is not really the way to do this with Germans. Rather clunky performance so far.

 

The number of up to 5 million potential refugees has been thrown around and that, without a doubt, will quickly cause social issues. I cannot stress how wobbly the coalition has become even before today, and the only thing that will save it is that the opposition CDU wants no part of ruliing during this crisis, as even someone as reassuring to the German people as Mama Merkel would be unable to handle what is coming.

 

So, in short, my take is that the Germans are going to publicly be very much in the corner of the alliance, but there are some definite concerns behind the curtains that this is going to be too much for the government to manage coherently if the refugee flows don't stay largely in Poland. Which they inevitably won't.

What's the distinction between the east and west on this? Not just the impending refugee crisis, but Russian aggression overall. They both have different cultural identifications with Russia, but obviously the east's is a little more complicated. Also, I know there's still some economic distinctions between the population in former east germany versus the west, even if some of that has been alleviated. Leipzig in particular has done great over the last decade.

Do you see any regional differences in how they're viewing Russian aggression?

[nineliveslost 2,789]

4 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

Why the fuck is a country that invades another and calls it a military exercise allowed to be in the UN?  Get them the hell out now or you have 0 teeth   

Fuck yea, We are the only ones that can do that !!!😀

[SL Xpress 7,516]

10 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

They will have to include oil and gas in the sanctions.  Western voters aren’t yet that stupid and uninformed to not realize how toothless the sanctions would be without that.  People may bitch later on and decide they just want gas prices to go down, but the immediate response to this won’t be to lie down for Putin. 

I don’t think everyone shares the confidence that this is somehow unique to Ukraine.   We are going to cut Ukraine lose, because we can without totally unraveling the world order since they aren’t technically in NATO.  But a complete appeasement strategy because we don’t want oil prices to go up might as well be an open invitation for Russia and China to press their luck in places that will either dissolve alliances or cause world war 3.  There has to be some showing of resistance here.

I've already seen the Taiwan government call for special meetings because of this. That's the first place I thought of in connection to all of this.

[Wulaw Horn 19,133]

51 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

presented without comment:

https://www.reuters.com/world/eying-inflation-us-unlikely-block-russia-oil-sales-if-putin-invades-officials-2022-02-23/

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia's crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, administration officials told Reuters.

 

I can’t believe this will be the case.  I really don’t. If this is the case then it’s essentially unarguable that we have zero standards or principals and we are not worthy of our position in the world. I don’t believe that. 

[Telegraph_it 3,358]

Parachute and all in the photo. Not sure you can eject out of a helicopter with a parachute though. 🤔
 

 

[Dahobbs 17,626]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can’t believe this will be the case.  I really don’t. If this is the case then it’s essentially unarguable that we have zero standards or principals and we are not worthy of our position in the world. I don’t believe that. 

The problem is that it really isn't an us choice. We can't do it if our allies aren't down. And they have some very real reasons to not be down. Hopefully we can find a way around that for them. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

18 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

this winter has been painful to europe.  nat gas has 5x in price.  norway, uk, finland (off the top of my head),  and a handful of other states has already had to add NEW subsidies for electricity for residents.  cutting off russia energy is tough

 

It is tough, and I am well aware of what has been going on with energy prices.  However, some of that increased pricing is because of the uncertainty of supply from Russia, so is already somewhat baked in.  Further, we are on the downward slope of winter, so that helps as well.

Edited February 24, 2022 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[FartingMonk 3,608]

If I was Taiwan or any other country that has a neighbor that poses a threat to me right now I'd be on the phone with Syria, Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan and ask how much it would cost to buy a couple of nukes or some chemical weapons from them right now.

[Dahobbs 17,626]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I've already seen the Taiwan government call for special meetings because of this. That's the first place I thought of in connection to all of this.

Yeah, this is clearly China's next play. I'd be very worried if I were them. Also, the chip shortage issue would be pretty much permanent if that happened.

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

This guy is a good follow.  This is moving very fast.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The problem is that it really isn't an us choice. We can't do it if our allies aren't down. And they have some very real reasons to not be down. Hopefully we can find a way around that for them. 

And it sounds like the UK and some of Europe is on board.  

 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

3 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Parachute and all in the photo. Not sure you can eject out of a helicopter with a parachute though. 🤔
 

 

Usually pilots are taught to try to survive through auto rotation. That is a good example of autorotation not landing the helicopter safely.

But a copilot could evacuate. And if it has a bay for passengers, they could have evacuated. Ejection would not be a good option, though.

[Wulaw Horn 19,133]

What is it that (was it Churchill?) said about us?  The great thing about America is you know they will do the right thing once they have exhausted all other options?  
I’m hopeful that’s what we see here. 
If this isn’t a screaming klaxon saying we must produce as much energy as we can because it’s vital to our national interests and place in the world I don’t know what is. That goes for everyone across the pond too, of course. 
the fact that they’ve allowed themselves to be so beholden to an autocrat bc it was easier in the short term shows it’s not just the US that struggles with long term strategery. 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

What's the distinction between the east and west on this? Not just the impending refugee crisis, but Russian aggression overall. They both have different cultural identifications with Russia, but obviously the east's is a little more complicated. Also, I know there's still some economic distinctions between the population in former east germany versus the west, even if some of that has been alleviated. Leipzig in particular has done great over the last decade.

Do you see any regional differences in how they're viewing Russian aggression?

Definitely a difference. The East is much, much more open to the extreme left and right wing parties, respectively, and both Die Linke and the Alternative für Deutschland are openly pro-Russian outfits and have had big success, relatively speaking, over there.

 

This is a couple of years old, but generally the former East Germany is much, much more anti-American and Pro-Russian. What this will do to that is unknown, of course.
 

 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, this is clearly China's next play. I'd be very worried if I were them. Also, the chip shortage issue would be pretty much permanent if that happened.

 

I don't think the word permanent means what you think it means.

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

Please please don’t CR this thread.  There is one in CR for all of that.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,125]

I think that if we really want to impose sanctions, everyone is going to have to be willing to give up something.  Personally, I think this is a no brainer.  Take the pain now to make Russia completely irrelevant.  Seems like the right strategy. 

[Captainant 27,685]

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

Please please don’t CR this thread.  There is one in CR for all of that.

Genuinely not trying to CR, and I used language as such. I don't think it's unreasonable for the international community to not 100% trust the US because of the aforementioned behavior