Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[GabrielsHorn 2,186]

 

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

Last unrelated thought before I head off to work: watch for other countries taking advantage of this to settle local scores.  
 

Not so much China, but India/Pakistan, Turkey and the Kurds, etc.

[Dahobbs 17,626]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

I don't think the word permanent means what you think it means.

China taking over Taiwan means no more TSMC, which essentially means no more chips for anyone that isn't Intel. No iphones, no AMD, no smart gadgets, and no to a lot of car parts. A short term disruption there would reverberate for years. A long term disruption would be debilitating to the industry. 

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

Just now, GabrielsHorn said:

 

And there it is.  This is going to be a wild ride…

 

I don’t think anyone can predict where this goes now that it’s kinetic.

[Buzzrock 14,934]

Parachute and all in the photo. Not sure you can eject out of a helicopter with a parachute though.
 
 

I read that the KA-50 and 52 are one of the only helicopters with an ejection system. No idea how that works.

[Wulaw Horn 19,133]

5 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

They’re beholden to an autocrat for energy and to America for security.  They’re much worse at long term strategy than America.  Some of them are actually scared now for the first time in a long time, though, so they might be willing to wake up from lala land for a brief period. 

Oh absolutely. That’s what I posted yesterday saying being around Euros pontificating on geopolitics and shit talking American actions can make one feel like Col Jessup. It’s like listening to your small kids pontificate about how shit should go down around your house. 
Outsourcing one’s own security to the outside world is madness. 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

Things are obviously moving fast, and this is four hours old and I've only had one eye on the news and one eye on work, but if true, it is the most typical European clusterfuckery possible:

 

Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky: - ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions - ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways - ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods - BEL wants carve-out for diamonds + broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

 

 

 

 

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

China taking over Taiwan means no more TSMC, which essentially means no more chips for anyone that isn't Intel. No iphones, no AMD, no smart gadgets, and no to a lot of car parts. A short term disruption there would reverberate for years. A long term disruption would be debilitating to the industry. 

Which is part of the reason there is a big push in the US to stand up this industry.  I know New York is doing a hard press, especially upstate.  Imagine if we could actually gain ground here.  

[Dahobbs 17,626]

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

And there it is.  This is going to be a wild ride…

 

I don’t think anyone can predict where this goes now that it’s kinetic.

Yeah, Russia doing a great job of selling the importance of NATO. If they wanted the alliance to expand, this was the way to do it. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

Things are obviously moving fast, and this is four hours old and I've only had one eye on the news and one eye on work, but if true, it is the most typical European clusterfuckery possible:

 

Diplomats tell us following sanctions are tricky: - ITA, AUS, DE concerned abt broad banking-sector sanctions - ITA resistant to sanctions that include railways - ITA wants carve-out for luxury goods - BEL wants carve-out for diamonds + broad reluctance to sanction energy sector

 

 

 

 

 

This was the discussion of the 1st round, which was prior to the invasion. I imagine that things look a bit different in the light of day now that Putin has invaded.

[Dahobbs 17,626]

3 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Which is part of the reason there is a big push in the US to stand up this industry.  I know New York is doing a hard press, especially upstate.  Imagine if we could actually gain ground here.  

Eh, maybe. The push was mainly Intel wanting some government money so it can unfuck its own fab situation. But national security interests may actually result it in happening now. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Dahobbs

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Eh, maybe. The push is mainly Intel wanting some government money so it can unfuck its own fab situation. 

If there is anything the Pandemic should have taught the world is that we all should be less reliant on China for necessary goods.  Having our own production capabilities seems like a no brainer.  

 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

This was the discussion of the 1st round, which was prior to the invasion. I imagine that things look a bit different in the light of day now that Putin has invaded.

Ah, ok. Saw the timeline of her posting this five hours ago, which was after the chaos of this morning, and thought, "Jeeez...you italians are ruthless"

[Buzzrock 14,934]

Looks like the rotors and canopies release first, then the ejectors fire. Better hope that sequence doesn’t happen out of order:

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

Just now, Shady Ray said:

Ah, ok. Saw the timeline of her posting this five hours ago, which was after the chaos of this morning, and thought, "Jeeez...you italians are ruthless"

Yeah.  I think those discussions are the reasons that the top EU diplomat released some of the tweets that he did.

[Shady Ray 1,633]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Yeah.  I think those discussions are the reasons that the top EU diplomat released some of the tweets that he did.

 

Looks like she just updated...

[Wulaw Horn 19,133]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Which is part of the reason there is a big push in the US to stand up this industry.  I know New York is doing a hard press, especially upstate.  Imagine if we could actually gain ground here.  

It’s not just chips (which is hugely important) but anything that’s key that we can’t/don’t source for ourselves that comes from countries hostile to our interest. Stuff like, say China, controlling 95% of the raw inputs for our medicine come to mind. 
energy from Russia and the Middle East of course. 
We need to seriously strategically rethink how we do trade and what our national interests are over the next decade. And I’m a self described globalist that had serious problems with Trump on trade throughout his presidency (beyond just the problems with his disgusting ness as a human being). We didn’t talk about this much between the fall of the USSR and recently. We need to go beyond talk and get to action on these key imports. Paying more to manufacture and source in the western world is necessary for our security. We need to be all over this the way we are all over building military shit. It’s the same thing in its protection for us worth doing. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/24/world/russia-attacks-ukraine/eu-sanctions-russia-putin

Quote

As the E.U. weighs new sanctions on Russia, it’s considering omitting Putin for now.

BRUSSELS — European Union ambassadors in Brussels moved closer to consensus on a significant package of sanctions targeting broad sectors of the Russian economy and individuals on Thursday, but were debating whether to keep President Vladimir V. Putin off their list for now, diplomats who participated in or were briefed on the talks said.

The ambassadors met on Thursday morning, just hours after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and were due to meet again in the afternoon to prepare for negotiations that E.U. leaders will hold in Brussels on Thursday evening about an overall response to the invasion.

Diplomats said that earlier resistance by some countries over specific sectors — for example, by Italy over luxury goods and Belgium over diamonds — had evaporated in the face of the invasion and that there was now broad consensus across the 27 member states.

The E.U.’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell Fontelles, described the proposed measures on Thursday morning as the “the harshest package of sanctions we have ever implemented.”

But a new rift emerged: A handful of member states led by Germany were advocating that the package exclude Mr. Putin for now.

Asked for comment, a German diplomat did not deny that Germany wanted to keep Mr. Putin off the latest sanctions.

The rationale for omitting him is a desire to keep channels open for dialogue with the top Russian leadership. They were considering exempting Foreign Minister Sergei V. Lavrov for the same reason.

But other member states argued that the bloc should immediately inflict the maximum possible pain on Russia rather than hold back in hopes of renewed diplomatic dialogue.

E.U. leaders were due to convene in Brussels on Thursday evening and were expected to meet through the night. The sanctions they are expected to agree on will come into effect when the legal language is published, on Friday or Saturday, diplomats said.

Bolding is mine.

Edited February 24, 2022 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

1 minute ago, longhornmatt said:

“Sanctions include removing Russia from SWIFT, and a full embargo on all trade with Russia … except for Fendi products.”

And Gucci.  LOL.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

3 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

 

Looks like she just updated...

Yep.  Just linked her piece in the NY Times. 

[Constant 6,748]

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

And Gucci.  LOL.

Seriously though, all these luxury houses just announced rounds of price increases and are reporting record profits.  Perhaps they need to take a slight hit to help bring an autocrat to heel.

 

[Captainant 27,685]

1 minute ago, Constant said:

 

Comments seem to agree those are Ukrainian T64's

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

I would guess that new rounds of sanctions will ultimately lead to Russia cutting off all O&G to Europe. Putin won’t accept removal from SWIFT without him upping the ante.

The US should be getting as many javelins in the hands of Ukraine as possible. Remove Russian helicopters from the battle. 

[52-80 19,204]

11 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

“Sanctions include removing Russia from SWIFT, and a full embargo on all trade with Russia … except for Fendi products.”

 

[Constant 6,748]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Comments seem to agree those are Ukrainian T64's

I didn’t comment because I couldn’t tell if these were Russian tanks or not. I guess I’m glad I wasn’t celebratory. 

[Message Board User 12,395]

13 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

If there is anything the Pandemic should have taught the world is that we all should be less reliant on China for necessary goods.  Having our own production capabilities seems like a no brainer.  

 

There's what should happen...and then there's reality.

We like our cheap stuff and that's not going to change anytime soon.  Do you think Americans have the stomach to pay $50 for t-shirts and $120 for hoodies?  I don't.

If our leaders were to wave a magic wand and say "Ok no more imports from China" what do you think that would do to the cost of...everything?

China has us by the balls.  

[SL Xpress 7,516]

42 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

This guy is a good follow.  This is moving very fast.

He has a great article in the Foreign Policy Research Institute. 

It's not current, because it talks about the Winter Olympics starting in two weeks, but it's a great breakdown of the near term escalation regarding Ukraine, and why it's important.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

[Goofyboy 3,293]

There's what should happen...and then there's reality.
We like our cheap stuff and that's not going to change anytime soon.  Do you think Americans have the stomach to pay $50 for t-shirts and $120 for hoodies?  I don't.
If our leaders were to wave a magic wand and say "Ok no more imports from China" what do you think that would do to the cost of...everything?
China has us by the balls.  

India, Vietnam, etc all have many of the capabilities China does.

[TXSG8R 3,362]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44439/russias-frightening-multi-prong-invasion-of-ukraine-has-only-just-begun
 

This is one of my follows for military stuff. I assume some/all of this stuff was probably linked while I was asleep, so I’m not digging through it all. 
 

And maybe paranoid, but you Austin guys may want to avoid the 7th and Brazos area for the foreseeable future. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21,205]

4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

There's what should happen...and then there's reality.

We like our cheap stuff and that's not going to change anytime soon.  Do you think Americans have the stomach to pay $50 for t-shirts and $120 for hoodies?  I don't.

If our leaders were to wave a magic wand and say "Ok no more imports from China" what do you think that would do to the cost of...everything?

China has us by the balls.  

Agree w/ this.  Americans are way too selfish to sacrifice any comfort or convenience, whatsoever.   

[wildcat09 29,357]

1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Agree w/ this.  Americans are way too selfish to sacrifice any comfort or convenience, whatsoever.   

I mean, a lot of us aren’t. A majority of Americans WERE willing to sacrifice to try to stop the spread of Covid.

The problem is the 35% of Americans who will absolutely start a civil war if wraparound Oakleys get more expensive.

[Wulaw Horn 19,133]

10 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

There's what should happen...and then there's reality.

We like our cheap stuff and that's not going to change anytime soon.  Do you think Americans have the stomach to pay $50 for t-shirts and $120 for hoodies?  I don't.

If our leaders were to wave a magic wand and say "Ok no more imports from China" what do you think that would do to the cost of...everything?

China has us by the balls.  

I don’t care how many shirts and handbags and hoodies we buy from them. That’s not having us by the balls. We can do without that shit. We can’t do without oil, meds and chips. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

China will stay out of the conflict. They have too many economic problems of their own to deal with. They definitely won’t ally with Russia or think of touching Taiwan. Taiwan is still there tomorrow for China. Sit back and see how you can capitalize on a long Ukraine conflict.

I believe we will see China condemn Russia’s actions but take a wait and see on their own sanctions. The latter being a statement and not seriously considering any sanctions.

[Captainant 27,685]

7 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44439/russias-frightening-multi-prong-invasion-of-ukraine-has-only-just-begun
 

This is one of my follows for military stuff. I assume some/all of this stuff was probably linked while I was asleep, so I’m not digging through it all. 
 

And maybe paranoid, but you Austin guys may want to avoid the 7th and Brazos area for the foreseeable future. 

Nice share, thanks! Scrolling through, it looks like the units marked "V" came from Belarus, "Z" was the initial wave from russia, and "O" is auxiliary units

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,126]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China will stay out of the conflict. They have too many economic problems of their own to deal with. They definitely won’t ally with Russia or think of touching Taiwan. Taiwan is still there tomorrow for China. Sit back and see how you can capitalize on a long Ukraine conflict.

I believe we will see China condemn Russia’s actions but take a wait and see on their own sanctions. The latter being a statement and not seriously considering any sanctions.

Well, so far, they aren't really condemning anything.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/china-refuses-to-condemn-russian-attack-deflects-blame-to-u-s?srnd=premium&sref=knoriXqz

Quote

China refused to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine, instead urging restraint by “all parties” and repeating criticism that the U.S. was to blame for “hyping” the prospect of war in Eastern Europe in recent days. 

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying repeatedly sidestepped questions during a tense news briefing Thursday about whether Beijing considered Moscow’s military incursion into Ukrainian territory an invasion. Hua said that China “didn’t wish to see what happened in Ukraine,” adding that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be protected. 

“The parties directly concerned should exercise restraint and prevent the situation from getting out of control,” Hua said. 

At the same time, she reiterated the need to address President Vladimir Putin’s “legitimate security concerns,” citing American arms sales to Kyiv. Hua highlighted Moscow’s assurances that cities wouldn’t be targeted, while saying that Russia was independent and could set strategy based on its own interests.

“We have stated many times that the U.S. recently has been escalating tension and hyping up war,” Hua said.

During a phone call with Russia’s Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China “understands Russia’s reasonable concerns on security issues,” according to a government statement. Wang also called for a “balanced, effective, and sustainable European security mechanism” to be formed through dialogue and negotiation.

Putin’s attack has left Chinese President Xi Jinping with a difficult balancing act: Maintaining a united front with Moscow against the U.S. while avoiding a direct association with Putin’s destabilizing actions. Earlier this month, the Chinese leader backed Russia’s demand for binding security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO in the standoff -- providing vital support for Putin.

A resolution being drafted in the United Nations condemning Russia may force China to again take a formal position in coming days. The country’s UN ambassador, Zhang Jun, was the only speaker at an emergency Security Council meeting late Wednesday who didn’t criticize Russia’s actions.

“The door to a peaceful solution to the Ukraine issue is not fully shut,” Zhang said, even as Russian forces began their assault. 

China and Russia have an increasingly strong economic and trade relationship, supported by China’s growing demand for energy, food and other goods. Energy accounted for two-thirds of Chinese imports from Russia last year and that was set to keep growing after the signing of gas and oil supply deals when Xi and Putin met in Beijing.

 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China will stay out of the conflict. They have too many economic problems of their own to deal with. They definitely won’t ally with Russia or think of touching Taiwan. Taiwan is still there tomorrow for China. Sit back and see how you can capitalize on a long Ukraine conflict.

I believe we will see China condemn Russia’s actions but take a wait and see on their own sanctions. The latter being a statement and not seriously considering any sanctions.

Huh? China is already blaming the US and NATO for the invasion. Why do you believe China is going to condemn Russia's actions in the Ukraine.

As far as Taiwan, they think of "touching" Taiwan every day. It's the chief military and political objective of the PRC outside of the continued existence of the Communist Party. I agree they're not going to launch an invasion. But how the west reacts to the invasion of Ukraine is going to shape their thinking regarding the West's - and specifically the US's - stomach for defending Taiwan. 

And China is not only not going to employ any sanctions. They will do their best to help Russia subvert them.

[The Ace of Aces 5,192]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China will stay out of the conflict. They have too many economic problems of their own to deal with. They definitely won’t ally with Russia or think of touching Taiwan. Taiwan is still there tomorrow for China. Sit back and see how you can capitalize on a long Ukraine conflict.

I believe we will see China condemn Russia’s actions but take a wait and see on their own sanctions. The latter being a statement and not seriously considering any sanctions.

China will absolutely provide Russia and its businesses capital now when no one else can/will. 

[troph 24,886]

Biden considering more troops in the eastern flank. US will war with Russia if that line is crossed.  Anyone here saying otherwise is acting dumb. 

[Murfdogg21 4,413]

16 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

India, Vietnam, etc all have many of the capabilities China does.

…and Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and our woefully underdeveloped neighbors in Central America…

[troph 24,886]

35 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

“Sanctions include removing Russia from SWIFT, and a full embargo on all trade with Russia … except for Fendi products.”

Get to your luxury grocer and grab the caviar while you can!!

[NoName 16,364]

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,426]

1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

China will absolutely provide Russia and its businesses capital now when no one else can/will. 

And at interest rates that would make pay day loan places blush. 

[Message Board User 12,395]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t care how many shirts and handbags and hoodies we buy from them. That’s not having us by the balls. We can do without that shit.

No we can't.

Inflation has been the biggest story in the news for the last 6 months because it's been impacting everybody and is the quintessential kitchen table issue.  Almost every person I talk to (whether they be rich or poor) has at some point over the past few months mentioned how much their regular bills are skyrocketing.  

What do you think giving the peace sign to China would do to inflation and do you really think most Americans would stand for it?

This is exactly the reason the USA won't do anything meaningful to stop Putin's ambitions in eastern Europe or to stop China's ambitions in Taiwan/Hong Kong (if I mean when it happens) - we are not willing to make those sacrifices.

[956 Worldwide 34,736]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

The UN is there for a form of communication but why the fuck would you join an organization that has no teeth when it's a big country vs a little country.  That's some league of nations bullshit.  That's what it was designed to stop.  If you just talk then there is nothing good if there is no consequences

NATO is being a bitch because they sat there with absolute no response.  They asked about Turkey and a blockade.  They said oh no.  We won't discuss that.  That's Turkeys call.  

Just to say that I disagree with NATO being a bitch.  We’re dealing with a man who has shown his cards and lost almost all restraint. He is in possession of the worlds largest nuclear arsenal. 

Russia is a Black Sea nation. A blockade is a hostile act that would very possibly trigger belligerence between a NATO state and Russia. We need to unload every bullet we have except for that. 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

1 minute ago, troph said:

Biden considering more troops in the eastern flank. US will war with Russia if that line is crossed.  Anyone here saying otherwise is acting dumb. 

It's moot either way. Russia will keep their operations contained within the Ukraine. Doesn't mean it's the wrong gesture, because I agree with it. But talking about red lines regarding Poland, Slovania, Hungary, or Romania is silly. 

Frankly, the Baltic States are always the weak link. But they're not on the eastern flank of Ukraine.

And let's not flippantly talk about war between two nuclear powers, please. There's a reason both the US and Russia/USSR have taken pains over the past 65 years to at least pretend US troops and Russian military aren't firing at one another, even when we both know that's not always true.

[52-80 19,204]

21 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

India, Vietnam, etc all have many of the capabilities China does.

many industries have already spread manufacturing across south east asia, beyond just china, because they found the cost advantage is no longer there.  and this process was further accelerated due to covid, so the logistical advantage is not that great either.  apple going to india is a big example.

[Message Board User 12,395]

Pretty sobering article right here.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-is-the-u-s-still-importing-so-much-russian-oil-and-petroleum-products/

Here’s a flashing neon sign that U.S. energy policy has gone terribly, terribly wrong. Throughout 2021, the U.S. has imported 12 million to 26 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per month from Russia — that same country we keep enacting new sanctions on, in an effort to deter Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions. The most recent month from the Energy Information Agency’s figures is November 2021, at 17.8 million barrels. Last spring, imports of Russian oil hit the highest level in a decade; in August, Russia became the second-highest exporter of oil to the United States. Think that might be a reason Putin feels so confident?

[Captainant 27,685]

3 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

 

 

In my mind, the russian military is like Hank the Tank. A big FAT lumbering bear that isn't broadly capable, but it's hard as fuck to deal with and is pretty goddamn strong when it wants to be.

Next week is gonna be uncharted territory as we watch a western backed and modern equipped insurgency against a modern equipped army