Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[52-80 19230]

6 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

you almost want to admire politicians for how much they spin things

[Message Board User 12396]

Sorry Ukraine but thanks for giving up your nukes.

The inability of the U.S. to enforce its Budapest commitments will also echo in allied capitals that rely on America’s military assurances. Don’t be surprised if Japan or South Korea seek their own nuclear deterrent. If Americans want to know why they should care about Ukraine, nuclear proliferation is one reason. Betrayal has consequences, as the world seems destined to learn again the hard way.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

CR’ed

Edited February 24, 2022 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt
Where am I? How did I get here?

[KYHorn 17134]

11 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Huh? China is already blaming the US and NATO for the invasion. Why do you believe China is going to condemn Russia's actions in the Ukraine.

As far as Taiwan, they think of "touching" Taiwan every day. It's the chief military and political objective of the PRC outside of the continued existence of the Communist Party. I agree they're not going to launch an invasion. But how the west reacts to the invasion of Ukraine is going to shape their thinking regarding the West's - and specifically the US's - stomach for defending Taiwan. 

And China is not only not going to employ any sanctions. They will do their best to help Russia subvert them.

I agree on Taiwan. 

I think another aspect to all of this that actually puts China in a bind is North Korea. Ukraine denuclearized and we see the result. North Korea has undoubtedly taken note and this only reaffirms their resolute clinging to nuclear pursuits. China doesn't want this. Stability is in their interest and NK nuclearizing is destabilizing. Ukraine being essentially defenseless to invasion gets to the core of NK fears. So, China doesn't like this for the NK reason but might not mind it because of the Taiwan implications and economic/political ties to Russia. 

[52-80 19230]

12 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Pretty sobering article right here.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-is-the-u-s-still-importing-so-much-russian-oil-and-petroleum-products/

Here’s a flashing neon sign that U.S. energy policy has gone terribly, terribly wrong. Throughout 2021, the U.S. has imported 12 million to 26 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per month from Russia — that same country we keep enacting new sanctions on, in an effort to deter Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions. The most recent month from the Energy Information Agency’s figures is November 2021, at 17.8 million barrels. Last spring, imports of Russian oil hit the highest level in a decade; in August, Russia became the second-highest exporter of oil to the United States. Think that might be a reason Putin feels so confident?

EU is the real one directly dependent on this.  US dont directly need RU oil and RU dont need US imports in terms of direct trade as much as the NL, DE, PL, etc.  I think this volumetric rate is something like 2x as Colombia, and 1/5th of Canada.  The effect is just overall lift in overall market prices due to distorted dynamics

 

edit: ultimately it all roundtrips to the same result which is higher prices for everyone everywhere across the board.  its just that US is not beholden to RU as a supplier , strictly speaking

Edited February 24, 2022 by 52-80

[956 Worldwide 34747]

14 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

 

 

Ukraine has been basically trading ground for time.  And Russia has been restrained in their “precision strikes.”

Things will get ugly if and when this turns to urban warfare and attempts to capture cities begin.

I am curious if/how/what terms have been communicated to Zelenskyy.  The scary thing about saying you have to get rid of Nazis is what happened to all the Nazi leadership. 

[Newdoc 3448]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

'genius' and a 'smart move' and 'savvy'.

damn. just so dangerous.

There's a CR thread for this. Go back there.

[fuggled 576]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/24/world/russia-attacks-ukraine/eu-sanctions-russia-putin

As the E.U. weighs new sanctions on Russia, it’s considering omitting Putin for now.

BRUSSELS — European Union ambassadors in Brussels moved closer to consensus on a significant package of sanctions targeting broad sectors of the Russian economy and individuals on Thursday, but were debating whether to keep President Vladimir V. Putin off their list for now, diplomats who participated in or were briefed on the talks said.

The ambassadors met on Thursday morning, just hours after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and were due to meet again in the afternoon to prepare for negotiations that E.U. leaders will hold in Brussels on Thursday evening about an overall response to the invasion.

Diplomats said that earlier resistance by some countries over specific sectors — for example, by Italy over luxury goods and Belgium over diamonds — had evaporated in the face of the invasion and that there was now broad consensus across the 27 member states.

The E.U.’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell Fontelles, described the proposed measures on Thursday morning as the “the harshest package of sanctions we have ever implemented.”

But a new rift emerged: A handful of member states led by Germany were advocating that the package exclude Mr. Putin for now.

Asked for comment, a German diplomat did not deny that Germany wanted to keep Mr. Putin off the latest sanctions.

The rationale for omitting him is a desire to keep channels open for dialogue with the top Russian leadership. They were considering exempting Foreign Minister Sergei V. Lavrov for the same reason.

But other member states argued that the bloc should immediately inflict the maximum possible pain on Russia rather than hold back in hopes of renewed diplomatic dialogue.

E.U. leaders were due to convene in Brussels on Thursday evening and were expected to meet through the night. The sanctions they are expected to agree on will come into effect when the legal language is published, on Friday or Saturday, diplomats said.

Bolding is mine.
I can see the logic in omitting Putin. Punishing him and all the oligarchs equally could ramp up the "we're all in this together mindset" and lead to increased solidarity. Omitting him is a way of isolating him and stoking resentment. Plus, I doubt Putin is really motivated by his personal financial gains or losses in this situation.

[52-80 19230]

RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT SAYS IT HAS ENOUGH FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO SECURE STABILITY OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN FACE OF SANCTIONS - IFAX

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19142]

1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT SAYS IT HAS ENOUGH FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO SECURE STABILITY OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN FACE OF SANCTIONS - IFAX

Well, the Russian government also said that they weren't going to invade Ukraine and that Ukraine caused this, so excuse me if I do not believe Russia.  

[Parliament 14286]

3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT SAYS IT HAS ENOUGH FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO SECURE STABILITY OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN FACE OF SANCTIONS - IFAX

Well yeah.  When you're economy is basically cabbage trading, you can handle alot.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

5 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

There's a CR thread for this. Go back there.

Derp. Thought I was there. Will delete.

[Buzzrock 14936]

In my mind, the russian military is like Hank the Tank. A big FAT lumbering bear that isn't broadly capable, but it's hard as fuck to deal with and is pretty goddamn strong when it wants to be.
Next week is gonna be uncharted territory as we watch a western backed and modern equipped insurgency against a modern equipped army

Wait, who are the insurgents here?

[StruggleBus 3922]

4 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Wait, who are the insurgents here?

[NoName 16369]

47 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44439/russias-frightening-multi-prong-invasion-of-ukraine-has-only-just-begun
 

This is one of my follows for military stuff. I assume some/all of this stuff was probably linked while I was asleep, so I’m not digging through it all. 
 

And maybe paranoid, but you Austin guys may want to avoid the 7th and Brazos area for the foreseeable future. 

Tyler Rogoway is a good follow - here is his twitter if folks don't follow https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel

 

 

[Captainant 27727]

6 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Wait, who are the insurgents here?

I mean the Ukrainians using insurgent tactics against the Russians traditional army

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

24 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

No we can't.

Inflation has been the biggest story in the news for the last 6 months because it's been impacting everybody and is the quintessential kitchen table issue.  Almost every person I talk to (whether they be rich or poor) has at some point over the past few months mentioned how much their regular bills are skyrocketing.  

What do you think giving the peace sign to China would do to inflation and do you really think most Americans would stand for it?

This is exactly the reason the USA won't do anything meaningful to stop Putin's ambitions in eastern Europe or to stop China's ambitions in Taiwan/Hong Kong (if I mean when it happens) - we are not willing to make those sacrifices.

You are looking at the chess board as it is right now. I’m talking about how it could be when I said we need to rethink trade over the next decade. Nobody is more pro trade than I am. It makes us all richer. But, it can’t be a suicide pact. Shit that’s key to our strategic interests and necessary for our survival needs to be done by us. Full stop. There are plenty of poor countries that exist that would benefit from trade with us in sectors that are low tech that don’t threaten us in an existential manner. Those we can buy from whoever, but we should strategically invest in places that don’t wish us harm or are run by autocratic thugs. There is no particular reason we can’t make our Nike’s and T-shirt’s and shitty toys in Guatemala. Or Singapore. Or Bangladesh. Or he’ll, but them from China if you must.  But China can’t bring us to our knees by holding out on T-shirt manufacture. They can with meds. We don’t have to be beholden to Russia or the ME for our energy. That has to stop. We cannot give them a loaded gun to point at our heads. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

 

She had a short vacation

[immamac 42918]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

China taking over Taiwan means no more TSMC, which essentially means no more chips for anyone that isn't Intel. No iphones, no AMD, no smart gadgets, and no to a lot of car parts. A short term disruption there would reverberate for years. A long term disruption would be debilitating to the industry. 

Not necessarily, they are many other fabs except TSMC, but if would be a big blow to semiconductors - possibly too big for China to actually deal with if the rest of the semiconductor players were forced to exit the Chinese market. 

[troph 24905]

CNN reporter on the ground at the Kyiv airport Russians have the airport word is counter offensive organizing. Russians said they expect it. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I can’t believe this will be the case.  I really don’t. If this is the case then it’s essentially unarguable that we have zero standards or principals and we are not worthy of our position in the world. I don’t believe that. 

 

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

The problem is that it really isn't an us choice. We can't do it if our allies aren't down. And they have some very real reasons to not be down. Hopefully we can find a way around that for them. 

Money printing and resulting inflation are inherently destabilizing forces. 

[Message Board User 12396]

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Well yeah.  When you're economy is basically cabbage trading, you can handle alot.

That's always going to be the advantage that Putin (and Xi and Rocket Man for that matter) enjoys over his Western counterparts - he doesn't give too shits about the peasants in Vladivostock and how they are affected by his global ambitions as he is going to be "re-elected" with approximately 99% of the vote no matter what he does.  

Western leaders actually at least pretend to care their citizens and are somewhat accountable.

[Buzzrock 14936]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

I mean the Ukrainians using insurgent tactics against the Russians traditional army

I’m not picking on you, I’ve heard similar comments elsewhere. It’s important to keep in mind that this is a free people fighting to keep their freedom. I hope they find the strength to resist. History is full of situations where outmatched forces fighting on their homeland have fared pretty well. 
 

There was a guy on TV earlier embedded in Moscow, and he said the vibe amongst the Russian people is that this is an unpopular move. Hopefully that vibe extends to the military. 

[troph 24905]

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Ukraine 

not a proper analogy. Why? US troops are stationed in Taiwan and not in Ukraine. US foreign policy may be inconsistent in many ways but not with respect to our troops where they may be.  
 

the proper China : Taiwan analogy is probably this:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Poland 

[Guest Lobo]

3 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Money printing and resulting inflation are inherently destabilizing forces. 

As is selling a record number of treasuries to our own Central Bank alongside a good economy.  

[Message Board User 12396]

Not sure why but this tweet and image made me tear up more than anything from last night.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Message Board User

[956 Worldwide 34747]

Pausing the thread and inflation talk for a moment.

The first reports of at least one dead child in Cherkasy Oblast due to Russian artillery. 

Fuck this and fuck the man in the Kremlin. May he not die in his sleep. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

1 minute ago, troph said:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Ukraine 

not a proper analogy. Why? US troops are stationed in Taiwan and not in Ukraine. US foreign policy may be inconsistent in many ways but not with respect to our troops where they may be.  
 

the proper China : Taiwan analogy is probably this:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Poland 

Yeah this is fundamentally different as you point out by our troops being there. It’s like Korea. We don’t have enough there to stop them, but we have enough there that it would be untenable for us to ignore aggression and write off those deaths to cost of the game. China I think knows and understands this. Whenever we park a carrier group there, which happens all the timeC that pretty much shuts things down for all non lunatics. 

[Parliament 14286]

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

She'll be dead soon.

[TwiceHorn 31529]

1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

They’re beholden to an autocrat for energy and to America for security.  They’re much worse at long term strategy than America.  Some of them are actually scared now for the first time in a long time, though, so they might be willing to wake up from lala land for a brief period. 

Yep, thanks mostly to us, Europe hasn't had to seriously consider defense, especially Germany.

I suspect this is going to wind up changing that.

[troph 24905]

37 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It's moot either way. Russia will keep their operations contained within the Ukraine. Doesn't mean it's the wrong gesture, because I agree with it. But talking about red lines regarding Poland, Slovania, Hungary, or Romania is silly. 

Frankly, the Baltic States are always the weak link. But they're not on the eastern flank of Ukraine.

And let's not flippantly talk about war between two nuclear powers, please. There's a reason both the US and Russia/USSR have taken pains over the past 65 years to at least pretend US troops and Russian military aren't firing at one another, even when we both know that's not always true.

I was just reporting what I heard dude. I’m not  pontificating here, I consider myself a smartie but not on Eastern European politics. Also US has troops in the baltics and has increased them. I’m simply reporting what I hear.  Argue with someone else.

[Message Board User 12396]

Well, we'll see if the Russian economy can take Putin's length.

 

[phdhorn 6224]

43 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

China will absolutely provide Russia and its businesses capital now when no one else can/will. 

And the NS2 pipeline is really nothing at this point... certification wasn't expected until summer anyway, and Russia will just take that gas and sell it to China - at a better price.  They just signed a megadeal about 2 weeks ago, ensuring Russian gas for 20 years - paid in Euros - by China.  

Although the Russo-Chinese alliance at this point is watery and more show than real deep, this alliance has the potential to be the worst thing that ever happened to the world humanity wise.  But I don't think it'll get that far - at least while I'm alive.

[Captainant 27727]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Not necessarily, they are many other fabs except TSMC, but if would be a big blow to semiconductors - possibly too big for China to actually deal with if the rest of the semiconductor players were forced to exit the Chinese market. 

Taiwan is something like 60% of worldwide chip fab capacity. Shit, when it floods in Taiwan, global supplies are impaired for years. I'm not sure that any rational actor is willing to mess with the golden goose.

 

But the world hasnt been real big on rationality lately

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[Telegraph_it 3359]

Who had this on the bingo card from earlier?

 

[mdmost 43031]

Just now, Telegraph_it said:

Who had this on the bingo card from earlier?

 

This is how Ukranian Godzilla gets created. 

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[troph 24905]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Taiwan is something like 60% of worldwide chip fab capacity. Shit, when it floods in Taiwan, global supplies are impaired for years. I'm not sure that any rational actor is willing to mess with the golden goose.

 

But the world hasnt been real big on rationality lately

Lotta dumb on this thread now, really wish folks would shut up and let the knowledgeable posters and those with credible twitter links have the floor. This was a fantastic thread to lurk on for months. I post a ton but this was not the thread to jump head first into now it’s filled with shit. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21214]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

 

that'll show 'em

[Parliament 14286]

3 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Who had this on the bingo card from earlier?

 

For fuck's sake.

[mdmost 43031]

3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

that'll show 'em

Actually, that's a pretty big deal. UEFA Champions League Final is the biggest game in the world. Watched by billions. It's akin to taking the Olympics or World Cup away from a country. 

[Guest Lobo]

Nukranian Zilla?  Super job Putin.  I'm sure you'll find  a way to accidentally release some of that shit into the water table.  Real nice opening salvo.  Murdering children and leaking nuclear waste from the worst accident in human history.  

This seems like a lot of bad mojo just to protect his Western Border. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Lobo

[DigglerontheHoof 21214]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Actually, that's a pretty big deal. UEFA Champions League Final is the biggest game in the world. Watched by billions. It's akin to taking the Olympics or World Cup away from a country. 

Yes, this should turn back the tanks. 

[Telegraph_it 3359]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Nukranian Zilla?  Super job Putin.  I'm sure you'll find  a way to accidentally release some of that shit into the water table.  Real nice opening salvo.  Murdering children and leaking nuclear waste from the worst accident in human history.  

This seems like a lot of bad mojo just to protect his Western Border. 

Exactly....

 

 

[mdmost 43031]

47 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Yes, this should turn back the tanks. 

No, dickhead, it won't but it will hurt Russia financially. That's all the world has left to do. No one wants to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The only way to stop him is to destroy him economically. 

Okay, maybe dickhead was harsh. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by mdmost

[Captainant 27727]

1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

Exactly....

 

 

Not great, not terrible.

 

Edit: the tragic thing is that we JUST finished building new containment and renovating the Chernobyl reactor site. It's beyond frustrating that all of that effort to protect the world from the soviets failure is being endangered. For no reason but the wounded sense of legacy from a despotic kleptocrat

Edited February 24, 2022 by Captainant

[NoName 16369]

4 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Yes, this should turn back the tanks. 

i mean, what do you want the Union of European Football Associations to do here? raise an army?

this is theoption that is on the table, and one of the only things UEFA they literally CAN do. which they pretty immediately did.

Edited February 24, 2022 by NoName

[SL Xpress 7518]

10 minutes ago, troph said:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Ukraine 

not a proper analogy. Why? US troops are stationed in Taiwan and not in Ukraine. US foreign policy may be inconsistent in many ways but not with respect to our troops where they may be.  
 

the proper China : Taiwan analogy is probably this:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Poland 

 

There are 39 US troops in Taiwan. There are at least 5000 NATO troops in Poland. 

If we're talking about an invasion of South Korea, or Japan, you'd have a point. The amount of troops in Taiwan is most definitely the US straddling the fence between telling the Taiwan government "you're important" and, "but not that important."

It's not an apples to apples comparison in about 50 ways. The only way it is a comparison is that China has Taiwan as it's most important foreign policy objective, and has ever since the return of Macau and Hong Kong. It's also a comparison in that the US has not guaranteed Taiwan's sovereignty. The treaties with Taiwan use vague language purposefully to give US leaders the maximum amount of flexibility in dealing with Chinese aggression. Which could very well end up be sanctions. It's not the same as treaties with Japan, South Korea, or Australia. It used to be. But that was abrogated in the 70s. 

But today I'm not concerned about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I do think the possibility becomes increasingly likely the more China modernizes their military. But I'm also of the opinion China is always going to lag behind in military effectiveness because at the end of the day the military is primarily a political arm for the Communist Party. As such, loyalty to the party is more important than loyalty to the state, with political appointees to leadership, and political officers embedded within units. But I'm going so far off topic at this stage I'm going to have to make an attempt to reel it in.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

They may need to call me out to lend my Chernobyl expertise as I have read the book and watched the show 3 times. I know how to deal with Soviet miners.