Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[smuggs 9353]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I hope some of y'all don't hurt yourselves jerking off to this shit all day today. 

Thanks. I followed a fairly strict hydrating regimen last night followed by a calorie-rich breakfast this morning. A quick round of Bikram yoga coming up at 9 CST and then it's off to the races.

[DigglerontheHoof 21257]

Just now, mdmost said:

No, dickhead, it won't but it will hurt Russia financially. That's all the world has left to do. No one wants to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The only way to stop him is to destroy him economically. 

Dickhead?  We've met and had beers and you get all pissy like that?  Go fuck yourself, dude.

[Goredho 17423]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

The UN will cease to exist after this.  NATO is going to look weak as fuck

Yeah, the rest of the world is not in a good position to react.  Every country is still dealing with a pandemic.  The western democracies are dealing with severe internal political turmoil and their people can't agree on the color of a cloudless sky.  Financial markets have been teetering for some time.  This is the worst possible time for anyone to make a stand against Russia.

I just wonder if Putin just sensed an opportunity to act unopposed.  Maybe it proves unwise for him to have done so in the long run, but certainly this act of war would have been far more dangerous for him a decade ago.

[Buzzrock 14949]

24 minutes ago, troph said:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Ukraine 

not a proper analogy. Why? US troops are stationed in Taiwan and not in Ukraine. US foreign policy may be inconsistent in many ways but not with respect to our troops where they may be.  
 

the proper China : Taiwan analogy is probably this:

China : Taiwan :: Russia : Poland 

China : Hong Kong ?

[Captainant 27835]

Jesus fuck they're just attacking civilians now. Video of a fighter shooting rockets into a village in spoiler

Spoiler

 

 

 

[Parliament 14342]

Things are getting kinda spicy here, and that's understandable. But the acrimony gets in the way of free exchange.  Let's all take a breath and say the Serenity Prayer.  And maybe watch some of this video:

 

[Buzzrock 14949]

15 minutes ago, troph said:

Lotta dumb on this thread now, really wish folks would shut up and let the knowledgeable posters and those with credible twitter links have the floor. This was a fantastic thread to lurk on for months. I post a ton but this was not the thread to jump head first into now it’s filled with shit. 

That’s not how any of this works. 

[sidis 9832]

3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Dickhead?  We've met and had beers and you get all pissy like that?  Go fuck yourself, dude.

“Look, mdmost is sorry. It’s just this war and that lying sonofabitch Putin…”

[troph 24914]

Just now, SL Xpress said:

 

There are 39 US troops in Taiwan. There are at least 5000 NATO troops in Poland. 

If we're talking about an invasion of South Korea, or Japan, you'd have a point. The amount of troops in Taiwan is most definitely the US straddling the fence between telling the Taiwan government "you're important" and, "but not that important."

It's not an apples to apples comparison in about 50 ways. The only way it is a comparison is that China has Taiwan as it's most important foreign policy objective, and has ever since the return of Macau and Hong Kong. It's also a comparison in that the US has not guaranteed Taiwan's sovereignty. The treaties with Taiwan use vague language purposefully to give US leaders the maximum amount of flexibility in dealing with Chinese aggression. Which could very well end up be sanctions. It's not the same as treaties with Japan, South Korea, or Australia. It used to be. But that was abrogated in the 70s. 

But today I'm not concerned about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I do think the possibility becomes increasingly likely the more China modernizes their military. But I'm also of the opinion China is always going to lag behind in military effectiveness because at the end of the day the military is primarily a political arm for the Communist Party. As such, loyalty to the party is more important than loyalty to the state, with political appointees to leadership, and political officers embedded within units. But I'm going so far off topic at this stage I'm going to have to make an attempt to reel it in.

Dude - I like you - but argue with someone else, as someone else stated we have a carrier group that parks there often.  Taiwan is not China’s Ukraine from an invasion standpoint. And the US will increase its presence if required. This shit isn’t going to extend to locations where US troops are stationed. No fucking way.  Absent nukes, Russia and China will get their shit shoved in by the US if the deliberately attack US troops.  That’s a bedrock of US foreign policy. Might be the only consistency in US foreign policy. 

[troph 24914]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

China : Hong Kong ?

There was a political agreement to hand it back. That was GB making a deal not an invasion. 

[Knoxtnhorn 6066]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Things are getting kinda spicy here, and that's understandable. But the acrimony gets in the way of free exchange.  Let's all take a breath and say the Serenity Prayer.  And maybe watch some of this video:

 

What if we hate cats?

Just kidding.

[TwiceHorn 31573]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

No we can't.

Inflation has been the biggest story in the news for the last 6 months because it's been impacting everybody and is the quintessential kitchen table issue.  Almost every person I talk to (whether they be rich or poor) has at some point over the past few months mentioned how much their regular bills are skyrocketing.  

What do you think giving the peace sign to China would do to inflation and do you really think most Americans would stand for it?

This is exactly the reason the USA won't do anything meaningful to stop Putin's ambitions in eastern Europe or to stop China's ambitions in Taiwan/Hong Kong (if I mean when it happens) - we are not willing to make those sacrifices.

Well, inflation has been a bigger issue than it should be because of partisan political forces acting against Biden./no CR

This aint the 70s and early 80s.

[troph 24914]

Nm.

Edited February 24, 2022 by troph

[mdmost 43056]

3 minutes ago, sidis said:

“Look, mdmost is sorry. It’s just this war and that lying sonofabitch Putin…”

Oh, I'll buy that dickhead a beer the next time we see each other. 

[phdhorn 6224]

6 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I just wonder if Putin just sensed an opportunity to act unopposed.  Maybe it proves unwise for him to have done so in the long run, but certainly this act of war would have been far more dangerous for him a decade ago.

I think this is partially true for sure, but Putin's been prepping for this really ever since he got electe... er, usurped the Russian presidency.  Part of his prep has been amassing a shitload of capital for himself, and very little of that in rubles.  Since 2014, he has dramatically upgraded the military and re-engineered it for exactly this moment.

I agree with you that this was the opportunity he was waiting for, but he knew for sure, especially since 2014, that he would work up to it and that it would happen.

[Celery Man 21004]

 

from our trip to Moscow in 2017. Such a surprisingly pretty place. So sad for this place to be the seat of such evil.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Celery Man

[Telegraph_it 3359]

I mean WTF. 

 

 

[crash_davis 23115]

Russia's economy is basically a giant gas station. I haven't read up on it but will the US and EU sanctions impact Russian oil? Cause oil is over $100/barrel. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

I participated in it too, but perhaps someone should start a China-Taiwan thread for anyone that wants to discuss.

[Macanudo 13018]

25 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Actually, that's a pretty big deal. UEFA Champions League Final is the biggest game in the world. Watched by billions. It's akin to taking the Olympics or World Cup away from a country. 

Bullshit.    Taking away a sporting event doesn't do fucking anything.

[Gatorubet 30324]

Well, my apologies for offending anyone. I can understand why that's a turnoff. But I am legitimately surprised by the reactions on this thread.

Ooohhh….say it again

[Dahobbs 17700]

53 minutes ago, immamac said:

Not necessarily, they are many other fabs except TSMC, but if would be a big blow to semiconductors - possibly too big for China to actually deal with if the rest of the semiconductor players were forced to exit the Chinese market. 

I guess you can say there are many other fabs. But there are only three players at the bleeding edge space, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. And those entities account for essentially all chip production.  I think the rest of the industry accounts for less than 10%. 

43 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Taiwan is something like 60% of worldwide chip fab capacity. Shit, when it floods in Taiwan, global supplies are impaired for years. I'm not sure that any rational actor is willing to mess with the golden goose.

 

But the world hasnt been real big on rationality lately

This. Small clarification though, TSMC has ~55% of the foundry market. That doesn't include Intel's in-house stuff. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Dahobbs

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

In my mind, the russian military is like Hank the Tank. A big FAT lumbering bear that isn't broadly capable, but it's hard as fuck to deal with and is pretty goddamn strong when it wants to be.

Next week is gonna be uncharted territory as we watch a western backed and modern equipped insurgency against a modern equipped army

 

Can I get some kind of clarification of why you think so? 

It was for a long time. The inept invasion of Georgia and the terrible initial showing in Chechnya, plus the study of US use of special forces changed the overall investment, and the training objectives and makeup of the Russian Army. The strong emphasis on uptempo operations saw its greatest use in the swift and decisive takeover in Crimea.

I don't actually know how they'll fare against Ukrainian troops. When they faced one another in 2014 the Russian military wiped the floor with them. Part of the impetus for the invasion is the increasing effectiveness of the weapons the Ukraines have been purchasing, and a perceived uptick in the Ukrainian military competence.

Some reports have estimated Russia has over 60% of its combined arms forces stationed at the border prior to invasion, including a significant amount of manpower from Siberia.

They'll have pretty much complete air superiority.

I fully expect something akin to what we saw in Iraq when the US invaded. Both times. 

Right now we're already seeing reports that mobile Russian troops have secured various airports in Ukraine, including one 15 miles from Kiev. 

I don't think this is the lumbering bear you're thinking it to be. The best equipped parts of the Russian army are highly mechanized, trained, supplied, mobile forces meant to operate at a high tempo. Again, how they do in actual combat against an enemy remains to be seen, but a reporter thinking that what Russia has done so far seems underwhelming is not an accurate first impression, IMO. No telling what their objectives have been, or how well they've achieved them.

[troph 24914]

@SL Xpress

Quote

Part of the impetus for the invasion is the increasing effectiveness of the weapons the Ukraines have been purchasing, and a perceived uptick in the Ukrainian military competence.

this makes a lot of sense for folks saying, "why now?" we already know he thinks it's a must have and he probably thinks (and he's right that) it will only get harder to take if he waits.

[SimonBolivar 10961]

14 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I mean WTF. 

 

 

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

Like a government in exile way out?

[Dahobbs 17700]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

Yeah, just a couple of days ago he was saying this was no big deal, Russia is always a threat. I get that he had to say something to prevent any panic. But it doesn't seem like he did himself or Ukraine any favors. 

[DaggerHorns 3102]

33 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Dickhead?  We've met and had beers and you get all pissy like that?  Go fuck yourself, dude.

With this declaration of war, I’d sanction him at the next bar meetup.

[Dahobbs 17700]

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

 

Can I get some kind of clarification of why you think so? 

It was for a long time. The inept invasion of Georgia and the terrible initial showing in Chechnya, plus the study of US use of special forces changed the overall investment, and the training objectives and makeup of the Russian Army. The strong emphasis on uptempo operations saw its greatest use in the swift and decisive takeover in Crimea.

I don't actually know how they'll fare against Ukrainian troops. When they faced one another in 2014 the Russian military wiped the floor with them. Part of the impetus for the invasion is the increasing effectiveness of the weapons the Ukraines have been purchasing, and a perceived uptick in the Ukrainian military competence.

Some reports have estimated Russia has over 60% of its combined arms forces stationed at the border prior to invasion, including a significant amount of manpower from Siberia.

They'll have pretty much complete air superiority.

I fully expect something akin to what we saw in Iraq when the US invaded. Both times. 

Right now we're already seeing reports that mobile Russian troops have secured various airports in Ukraine, including one 15 miles from Kiev. 

I don't think this is the lumbering bear you're thinking it to be. The best equipped parts of the Russian army are highly mechanized, trained, supplied, mobile forces meant to operate at a high tempo. Again, how they do in actual combat against an enemy remains to be seen, but a reporter thinking that what Russia has done so far seems underwhelming is not an accurate first impression, IMO. No telling what their objectives have been, or how well they've achieved them.

I don't think he is entirely off. It's a lot easier for Russia to flex military its might with a neighboring country and no supply line issues. I don't think it has a ton of capacity to project force very far from its borders (not including nukes).  But, where it can operate, it can operate very effectively. 

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Like a government in exile way out?

They sure as shit wouldn't want to base their government-in-exile in the United States.  35% of our adults are hoping Russia crushes them.  

But you raise an interesting point, it may get to a point (sooner than I thought) where their top level government officials remove themselves back to Central Europe to direct the military and logistics.  Kiev appears untenable far sooner than I thought.  Doesn't help Russia's opening move was "torch the nuclear waste storage...let the water be poisoned."  I would have thought Putin of all people would understand how the flow of water works.  

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

26 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, inflation has been a bigger issue than it should be because of partisan political forces acting against Biden./no CR

This aint the 70s and early 80s.

You’re right, it isn’t the 70s and early 80s. Our debt/gdp is 4x what it was then. There’s no room to really raise rates to squash inflation a la Volcker. It’s the same story throughout the world.
 

So we have to be more careful how we approach sanctions that can further fuel inflation for us and our allies. 

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[52-80 19270]

On 2/22/2022 at 2:13 PM, 52-80 said:

dutch nat gas futures perked up a cute 9% today.  is it gonna touch 100 this week?

 

18 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Russia's economy is basically a giant gas station. I haven't read up on it but will the US and EU sanctions impact Russian oil? Cause oil is over $100/barrel. 

yes.

and gas is up a cute 50% today (+20% yesterday), now to 135

[Braff Zacklin 13666]

32 minutes ago, mdmost said:

No one wants to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The only way to stop him is to destroy him economically. 

Question from someone who has only followed this topic casually:

How vulnerable are Putin's allies, i.e., his fellow Russian oligarchs?

I'm sure Putin has shielded his wealth in such a way that sanctions couldn't hurt him, but if his cronies haven't, then maybe they could be convinced to seek new management if they saw their revenue streams suddenly at risk.

(I imagine the US and EU have already tried this, but hope springs eternal.)

[956 Worldwide 34796]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

They sure as shit wouldn't want to base their government-in-exile in the United States.  35% of our adults are hoping Russia crushes them.  

But you raise an interesting point, it may get to a point (sooner than I thought) where their top level government officials remove themselves back to Central Europe to direct the military and logistics.  Kiev appears untenable far sooner than I thought.  Doesn't help Russia's opening move was "torch the nuclear waste storage...let the water be poisoned."  I would have thought Putin of all people would understand how the flow of water works.  

And again— Putin has said he wants to “de-nazify.” They understand the implicit threat. We all know the fate of Nazi leadership.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10361]

19 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I mean WTF. 

 

 

I'm assuming this was a Belarus condition for using their country as stagin area - get to NPP site as quick as possible and secure it so it can't be used as threat/risk against us.

Russia would in no way want to further radiative spread from this site either.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

The more this goes on the more I think Clancy had it right. The only deterrent is probably killing/assassination of the head of state who kicks something like this off. 

[crash_davis 23115]

1 minute ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Question from someone who has only followed this topic casually:

How vulnerable are Putin's allies, i.e., his fellow Russian oligarchs?

I'm sure Putin has shielded his wealth in such a way that sanctions couldn't hurt him, but if his cronies haven't, then maybe they could be convinced to seek new management if they saw their revenue streams suddenly at risk.

(I imagine the US and EU have already tried this, but hope springs eternal.)

Didn't this exact playbook happen the last time he invaded Ukraine and took Crimea? All of our sanctions and pressure on his oligarch buddies sure did teach Putin a lesson. That lesson apparently is the do it again and take more Ukraine land.

[Captainant 27835]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

And again— Putin has said he wants to “de-nazify.” They understand the implicit threat. We all know the fate of Nazi leadership.

Which is fucking WILD because Zelensky is Jewish and has direct ancestors that were killed in the holocaust.

Just an absolutely amazingly big lie from Putin.

[956 Worldwide 34796]

Dear Gerhard, we already knew what you thought and today was not the day to tell us. Kindly attach a plastic bag to your head and and stick in a hose leading directly to NS1. 
 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Don Johnson 4757]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

35% of our adults are hoping Russia crushes them.  

Fucking absurd statement.

[SL Xpress 7518]

21 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

 

from our trip to Moscow in 2017. Such a surprisingly pretty place. So sad for this place to be the seat of such evil.

 

 

Those are fun pics. I'm glad you got a chance to visit. St. Petersburg is one of the most amazing places I've ever been. I'd highly recommend it to anyone...well, I guess not really. Some day in the far future, maybe.

There are so many things to love about Russia. It's culture. It's history. Some of the greatest composers. Some of the greatest writers. The greatest movie directors. Ballet. Chess. First object to orbit the earth. First man in space. Just a huge mark on human history in so many ways, both good and bad.

I find the place fascinating. And the Russian people are so iconic. 

But there are a lot of black marks. A lot. This is only the latest. Not that every country doesn't have its share. Certainly the US does. I really wish this hadn't happened, though.

[hersh95 92]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Not sure why but this tweet and image made me tear up more than anything from last night.

Damn you and your onion cutting.   

[Telegraph_it 3359]

12 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Sadly and expectedly it looks like Zelensky is panicking. I really hope we have a way out for these guys.

 

 

[Message Board User 12396]

Would?

 

[956 Worldwide 34796]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Which is fucking WILD because Zelensky is Jewish and has direct ancestors that were killed in the holocaust.

Just an absolutely amazingly big lie from Putin.

The Prime Minister is Jewish too. “Nazi” Ukraine is the only nation aside from Israel where that is true.

[52-80 19270]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The more this goes on the more I think Clancy had it right. The only deterrent is probably killing/assassination of the head of state who kicks something like this off. 

just need to send in a prozzie to cough in his face and give him the covid.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[Message Board User 12396]

The answer to this question lies in the equation -

Deterrence = Capability x Will.