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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

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NYT

 

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As the skies above Kyiv were lit up by a huge explosion and at least one rocket crashed into a civilian building, Ukrainian officials braced for attacks.  “Horrific Russian rocket strikes on Kyiv,” the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, wrote on Twitter. The last time the capital “experienced anything like this,” he wrote, was in 1941 “when it was attacked by Nazi Germany. Ukraine defeated that evil and will defeat this one. Stop Putin

 

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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ztejas

ztejas 43414

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Posted
10 minutes ago, F250 said:

China wins in that realm. I consulted on Critical infrastructure (primarily grid) cybersecurity for a few years and it was common to find the Chinese burrowed in "air gapped" systems.

Due to the nature of an authoritarian country China can issue Top Down security controls to counter cyber attacks. The U.S. is driven by profit so cybersecurity is seen as an expense so often the bare minimum is done for budget reasons by companies. Shit, often companies will take compliance hits because it's cheaper than investing in security.

 

Yeah defensively for sure. I just always wonder what the US is capable of from an offensive standpoint that the public doesn't know about. Looooot of black budget shit out there that's been out there for years. 

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troph

troph 24781

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Doesn't seem to be progressing all that fast. Kyiv should have been in artillery range, and they should have been intent on reducing it to rubble.

On a side note, been reading some private FB groups I'm in, some other social media stuff, and this is being talked about - There are videos of captured Russian soldiers and they are obviously stunned (most are young), and some of them have said they weren't there to kill anybody, and that they thought they'd be welcomed.

Some of the former armor guys are saying that they see videos of Russian tanks/BTRs/vehicles with troops standing around and not acting like they are in danger.  They've also noted that more than a few of the destroyed Russian tanks/BTRs were not deployed into a defensive position, and their turrets were still pointed forward as if they were just driving down a road.

Anyways, they are thinking that a lot of the Russian troops were (surprise!) told that they'd be welcomed and not in much danger, and that is kind of jiving with some of the interviews with captured soldiers.

Crazy, more reason to think/hope for an upset but then down 10 in the 4th I still think the dog can pull the upset. Trying not to get hopeful here. Just want mass Russian losses even if they win.

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

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2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Yeah defensively for sure. I just always wonder what the US is capable of from an offensive standpoint that the public doesn't know about. Looooot of black budget shit out there that's been out there for years. 

There is no formal term for it.  But it's basically cyber MAD.  We both know we can.  But let's not.  Biden sort of mentioned it a few months ago.  Yeah.  There are so many zero day hacks out there and how long have we been in this pandemic now?  2 years right?  So how much more exposure have our systems have now that a ton of people are remote work. 

 

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F250

F250 28764

Posted
Posted
Just now, ztejas said:

Yeah defensively for sure. I just always wonder what the US is capable of from an offensive standpoint that the public doesn't know about. Looooot of black budget shit out there that's been out there for years. 

The U.S. definitely has powerful capabilities but it still doesn't matter if your opponent is locked down and you are not. Think Kingsbury Texas Tech Air Raid with no defense.

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JerrysJheriCurl

JerrysJheriCurl 977

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If it the RTS Index falls under 500, it wouldn’t be a shock if one of the oligarchs plucks an ambitious general and throws him a $50M bone. Or whatever amount to motivate him, along with some of the cut.

And yes, I am aware of the monetary nest egg/war chest that exists.

There is a tipping point where the economics take over and the oligarchs make a move in their best interest. Will they get there? Not sure, but it’s possible. I don’t see them going down with Putin “on principle.”
Sometimes you gotta cut a unstable drama queen off. Amirite? 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89630

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Posted (edited)

Air raid sirens in Kyiv on the livestream.  Edit: And they are done.

Also, people doing the flight radar stuff are noticing what seems to be 3-4 USAF tankers with their transponders on doing circuits along NATO borders, but no other aircraft with transponders on are near them, so refueling who knows what.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89630

Posted
Posted
Just now, Skipper said:

We'll see if CNN can resist the urge to transition to an Applebee's commercial again.

It's interesting, the Russian forces seem to be keeping daytime hours.  Goes back to comments about a lack of night-vision gear, which gets into budget/preparation issues.

I say that and there could be actual fighting holding them up down the road from Kyiv.

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pops

pops 6981

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All this shit makes me realize how easy we've had it in this country for a long fucking time. Yeah...I hid under my desk in the 80s but shit.... I've always been comfortable. I stand with those badasses in Ukraine that actually have to do shit. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6129

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, pops said:

All this shit makes me realize how easy we've had it in this country for a long fucking time. Yeah...I hid under my desk in the 80s but shit.... I've always been comfortable. I stand with those badasses in Ukraine that actually have to do shit. 

Yeah, the video of the dad telling his kids goodbye as they got on the bus that has been posted multiple times was something.  As a father of young kids I can't imagine.  This certainly makes all of our problems seem pretty petty.

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Skipper

Skipper 6129

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Also, people doing the flight radar stuff are noticing what seems to be 3-4 USAF tankers with their transponders on doing circuits along NATO borders, but no other aircraft with transponders on are near them, so refueling who knows what.

Is there any way we would be refilling Ukraine fighters that cross into NATO territory?  Or would that be considered crossing a line?

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OU Sucks

OU Sucks 8797

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Air raid sirens in Kyiv on the livestream.  Edit: And they are done.

Also, people doing the flight radar stuff are noticing what seems to be 3-4 USAF tankers with their transponders on doing circuits along NATO borders, but no other aircraft with transponders on are near them, so refueling who knows what.

I'm sure there are NATO fighters on patrol, which would need refueling.

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Hermanator

Hermanator 7032

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Given everything that we know about Putin, I have no doubt that if Americans/NATO rolled into Ukraine and started rolling up Russian forces, that Putin would use nukes on the battlefield.

He's fucking nuts and Americans/NATO kicking Russian ass on the battlefield would probably cause a seismic shift in Moscow.  Either the Russians would unite behind Putin and we get nukes (because Putin will tell his people that NATO won't stop at the Ukrainian border) or Putin faces the music and, well, gonna be nukes flying as he decides to take down everybody around him, as well as those he holds responsible (NATO/America).

It's one of those things where we will never find out but I don't believe he would use nukes. There's a reason that 80 years of nukes, shitty leadership, horrible dictators, and India/Pakistan hasn't led to a single nuke use. No matter how ruthless and power hungry a leader is he knows he can't lead and be in power if he's dead. Nukes is mutually assured destruction and even the most evil won't sacrifice themselves unless they know for sure they're being invaded and will lose or they get nukes launched on them first. 

Putin knows this. He also knows we cower to his threats of using them so he threatens often as a strategy to keep us at bay. 

But his aggression should have been quelled early on and not let it get this far where he knows he cN get away with it. Although it seems he may have bit off more than he can chew on this one and he may have to worry about his own taking him out before long 

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OU Sucks

OU Sucks 8797

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

My theory is that they aren't tankers at all.

Can't tell if you're being serious, but you can get their exact registrations...they're the same planes that provide refueling in the US and abroad.  There are plenty of other military planes that are up and aren't broadcasting.

image.thumb.png.d31b3922fc5899925951bc4208511a17.png

Edited by OU Sucks
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F250

F250 28764

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, pops said:

All this shit makes me realize how easy we've had it in this country for a long fucking time. Yeah...I hid under my desk in the 80s but shit.... I've always been comfortable. I stand with those badasses in Ukraine that actually have to do shit. 

This. I have employees in India, Chile and Romania and it seems I am having to check in on someone due to shit going down in their country once a year.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31440

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14 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Can't tell if you're being serious, but you can get their exact registrations...they're the same planes that provide refueling in the US and abroad.  There are plenty of other military planes that are up and aren't broadcasting.

image.thumb.png.d31b3922fc5899925951bc4208511a17.png

Well, the 135 has had a role in the past as an ELINT aircraft.

Might come in handy to fill a couple of "KC-135"s with the latest ELINT equipment and fly em around a war zone while telling everyone they're tankers.

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Hermanator

Hermanator 7032

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41 minutes ago, pops said:

All this shit makes me realize how easy we've had it in this country for a long fucking time. Yeah...I hid under my desk in the 80s but shit.... I've always been comfortable. I stand with those badasses in Ukraine that actually have to do shit. 

Don't worry we're doing our best to destroy ourselves from within. Just takes time and patience

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, the 135 has had a role in the past as an ELINT aircraft.

Might come in handy to fill a couple of "KC-135"s with the latest ELINT equipment and fly em around a war zone while telling everyone they're tankers.

The AWACS has this big ole satellite dish on top of it.  If he was trying to hide he have to say "I'm a storm chaser". But nah.  Those are fuel tankers. AWACS will just jam your signal or turn off the transponder

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

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11 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/klitschko-brothers-former-heavyweight-boxing-champions-to-take-up-arms-for-ukraine
 

That’s pretty crazy and respectable, both millionaires and could just leave and have a comfy life anywhere but staying and fighting.  

He was on the short list to be the next president of Ukraine.  If they make it out of this in one piece he will be the president one day

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Bobby_Batronic

Bobby_Batronic 1994

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Posted
2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, the 135 has had a role in the past as an ELINT aircraft.

Might come in handy to fill a couple of "KC-135"s with the latest ELINT equipment and fly em around a war zone while telling everyone they're tankers.

There’s probably a stealthy multi-role fighter we have that’s been described as being one big sensor being used in that role right now. Maybe one that was just deployed to Lakenheath. 

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Keef

Keef 764

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Stupid question here, but it seems Putin is trying to do this with a limited force. What’s his next move if Ukraine makes this extra bloody and/or embarrassing to him? Seems like Ukraine is holding up well and it worries me how Putin could react to save face. 

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

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Lulz. Bundeswehr finally admitting what everyone in Germany has long known to be the case.


Freezin' cold and without self-defense is no way to go through life, son.
 

Quote

"Would the Bundeswehr be able to defend Germany in an emergency?" - "No"

 

Former NATO general Egon Ramms is also not very optimistic about the state of the Bundeswehr. In addition, it must be assumed that Russia wants to get "the whole of Ukraine" into its hands. But this will be "not a walk" even after a military victory.


Former NATO general Egon Ramms does not assume that the Bundeswehr could defend Germany in an emergency. "No," Ramms replied to a corresponding question in the Today Journal. "Short, clear answer: No."

This is mainly due to the reduction of the armed forces and a lack of financial investment as well as a shutdown of ammunition and spare parts. Meanwhile, the situation is being improved again. But we are not even ready for the partial forces, but especially the army, to be equipped with the organic weapons that it should actually have. Overall, the Bundeswehr is in a situation where "the NATO obligations we have can be fulfilled, but after that there is not too much".
 

Previously, the inspector of the army, Lieutenant General Alfons Mais, and former Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) had already expressed criticism of the situation of the Bundeswehr. Mais said that the Bundeswehr was "more or less bare", Kramp-Karrenbauer complained that they had "historically failed" because they are not strong enough militarily to enforce "that non-negotiation cannot be an option for the other side."
 

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Ramms said that in view of the dimensions of the Russian march, it must be assumed that President Vladimir Putin wanted to get "all of Ukraine in his hands". However, it must be kept in mind that apparently large parts of the Ukrainian population are behind their government, rejected Russian domination and would continue to defend themselves. Even after a military victory, the subsequent situation would not become a walk in which peace immediately occurs.


Meanwhile, according to a Spiegel report, the Bundeswehr plans to offer NATO additional soldiers and weapon systems to strengthen the eastern flank. In a timely manner, an infantry company - around 150 soldiers with a good dozen "boxer" wheeled tanks - could be laid, the magazine reports on Friday. The German soldiers could join a French battle association in Romania, which Paris had already announced to NATO.
 

In addition, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) wants to offer NATO the "Patriot" anti-aircraft missile system, which could provide better protection in the Baltic States, for example. In addition, Berlin wants to offer the Alliance for NATO Missions in the North and Baltic Sea a corvette and a frigate as an option. However, these warships would have to be withdrawn from other missions in the Mediterranean. In addition, there is a German fleet service boat with sensor technology, which is already on its way to the Baltic Sea.

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article237135657/Ex-Nato-General-zu-Ukraine-Konflikt-Bundeswehr-nicht-in-der-Lage-Deutschland-zu-verteidigen.html

 

 

Edited by Shady Ray
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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is obviously a very simplified map showing current status that doesn't properly identify the status of the fighting in the major urban areas in the areas shaded as Russian controlled, but as a military idiot looking at this, a couple of things are starting to become a bit clearer:

 

1. Looks like that southern front that pushed out of Crimea is heading in both directions, likely intended to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, which would indeed be devastating economically and strategically. 

2. The heavy focus on Kharkiv that we are seeing is likely the early stage of an attempted cauldron (can a "cauldron" be considered a "cauldron" if its that large? only you smart dudes know) with the goal of trying to seal off the bulk of the Ukrainian forces in the East.

3. This is much more in line with what most analyst put as the likely maximal approach, with the early strikes yesterday in Galicia in the far west being targeted to air infrastructure in order to prohibit logistics support from the West

4. And if this was covered overnight and I missed it, apologies...the thread was so long that I only skimmed while catching up.

 

spacer.png

 

 

This is consistent with the initial analysis that Russia expert (and worthwhile Twitter follow) Michael Kofman put out right at the outset of hostilities:

 

spacer.png

 

Kofman's twitter:

 

 

 

Edited by Shady Ray
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Fico

Fico 1778

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

This is obviously a very simplified map showing current status that doesn't properly identify the status of the fighting in the major urban areas in the areas shaded as Russian controlled, but as a military idiot looking at this, a couple of things are starting to become a bit clearer:

 

1. Looks like that southern front that pushed out of Crimea is heading in both directions, likely intended to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, which would indeed be devastating economically and strategically. 

2. The heavy focus on Kharkiv that we are seeing is likely the early stage of an attempted cauldron (can a "cauldron" be considered a "cauldron" if its that large? only you smart dudes know) with the goal of trying to seal off the bulk of the Ukrainian forces in the East.

3. This is much more in line with what most analyst put as the likely maximal approach, with the early strikes yesterday in Galicia in the far west being targeted to air infrastructure in order to prohibit logistics support from the West

4. And if this was covered overnight and I missed it, apologies...the thread was so long that I only skimmed while catching up.

 

spacer.png

 

 

This is consistent with the initial analysis that Russia expert (and worthwhile Twitter follow) Michael Kofman put out right at the outset of hostilities:

 

spacer.png

 

Kofman's twitter:

 

 

 

Your point #2 greatly concerns me as well. A kesselschlacht could well be in the cards with the end game being full Ukrainian "demilitarization." 

I am somewhat surprised that the Russians haven't taken out the bridges on the Dnieper to force the engagement on the east side. I wish like hell the bulk of the Ukrainian Army could fallback to a western pocket where we could supply them will all the ELINT/etc. and maintainable supply lines but giving up your own homes is tough. That's  not to mention moving over that amount of open territory with enemy air superiority, civilians on the roads, and interrupted C&C. 

Edited by Fico
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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Fico said:

Your point #2 greatly concerns me as well. A kesselschlacht could well be in the cards with the end game being full Ukrainian "demilitarization." 


Muthafuckin' Surly... teaching the fluent German speaker some German. Pos rep to you, good sir.

 

Full demilitarization is what Vlad was rambling on about a couple of times in his tirades, so perhaps that truly is his real intention. Try to kesselschlacht like no kesselschlachter has ever kesselschlachted before in the East, take over the capital city, and then indeed impose demilitarization on the country. It has all the brute, bullying tendencies that one would expect from him. And Shirley he isn't under the illusion that he's gonna be able to hold this place.

Edited by Shady Ray
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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted

I've seen several interviews this morning with Ukrainian parliament leaders where they have stated that they are in their homes.  May not be the most difficult govt decapitation... we're only 31 hours in so far.

Cringy to keep hearing TV anchors telling these leaders that are on death lists at the end of the interviews to "Stay safe."

 

 

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