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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They will eventually take Kyiv, but they are not in a position to do much else - at this point, the US/allies in '91 had dropped a shitload more ordinance on Iraq. This whole thing feels so much like the Russians are trying to skip necessary steps and just rush to Kyiv and a few other areas.   It's like they wanted to emulate our "Shock and Awe" but are skipping the "Shock" part.

I still think I'm being generous, but assuming they are running roughly 3:1 for support-to-infantry, that's around 50,000 infantry (and I'm including the marine infantry the Russians were trying to land).  They've already lost several hundred dead (if it's 1,500 that would be amazing) and they've lost plenty of transports/vehicles.  

But even if they have all 50,000 or so infantry still alive and functioning and able to move around (logistics do seem to be slowing them down), that's split up all over the country, so at most they might have 30,000 foot soldiers to deal with Kyiv, a city of 3 million people.  Even if only 50,000 Ukrainians were defending it, I don't see 30,000 Russian foot soldiers being enough to actually take and hold the city.  And if they can't clear out large parts of the city, they can't have sustained armor support (tanks or APCs) in there, when St. Javelin can be hiding in a building, waiting to bless them.

This whole thing is really bugging the shit out of me.  

I'm still leaning towards Putin trying to capture Kyiv and capture the east side of the river and trying to run the clock out and get Ukraine to a table to talk.

But I'm also really leaning towards Putin's Yes Men fucking him over and giving him all kinds of false assurances about this being a large enough force.

Read up on the 1968 Invasion of Czechoslovakia. I’m not saying that’s how they believed it would go down, but it’s very possible they thought it would be more like 1968 Czechoslovakia than what they got.  A dumbass notion but again— Russia got fucked up worse than anyone realized in Georgia, too. 

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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TwiceHorn

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5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Russians don't fly without AWACS.  There will be a lot of high tech jamming going on both sides.  It would be gnarly.  

Russia/Soviet Union was always a step behind us, but I was shocked just now to see where they are.  Maybe not surprised given their economic situation.

For example, the SU35 is just an improved SU27.  They have an estimated fewer than two dozen of their latest, the SU57.

And if it comes down to electronics, I'll bet on us.

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Doc Reeves

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Just as a comforting thought….the only thing more dangerous than Putin winning may en a cornered Putin losing. Desperate madmen do bad shit.

We may end up in this one whether we want it or not.

 

Yes, but its not just his ego he’s worried about. His perception by the Russians as an iron figure is what he’s most concerned about. A long, drawn out war would not be in his best interests. I feel he plows ahead but could capitulate to a cease-fire if this runs weeks long. 

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Just now, Hefeweizen said:

 

Last tweet for now - this is completely badass, and if true, really heartwarming to see people do what politicians are too craven to do.

 

Believe it’s true. Similar stuff in Poland, Slovakia. These people have lived Russian occupation and aggression and they are fundamentally decent. 

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Bateshorn

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8 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Assuming Russia has eyes on all our air bases all over the world, how badly would Putin shit his pants if we put all our stealth aircraft in the air. Lightnings, Raptors, B2s...just scramble everything and have refueling assets up at the same time. 

Happy Peter Sellers GIF by Turner Classic Movies
 

Let’s slow our roll on freaking out the Russian autocrat who has had 2 very bad days. 

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Doc Reeves

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2 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Have there been any widespread or sustained cyberattacks from Russian side? Seems to me that is another capability of theirs that was overestimated. 

Their operations are more delicate especially within Europe. They are more loose nit associations rather that active military teams.

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Eastwood

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Assuming Russia has eyes on all our air bases all over the world, how badly would Putin shit his pants if we put all our stealth aircraft in the air. Lightnings, Raptors, B2s...just scramble everything and have refueling assets up at the same time. 
On mobile, so I can't link it because I suck, but look up the Able Archer exercise of 1983. Almost caused WW3, depending on which Russian account you believe.
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Clintonaldo

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Just as a comforting thought….the only thing more dangerous than Putin winning may en a cornered Putin losing. Desperate madmen do bad shit.

We may end up in this one whether we want it or not.

That’s something I have been wondering myself. He is way to prideful to lose with any dignity. 

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Gravy Train

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4 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Have there been any widespread or sustained cyberattacks from Russian side? Seems to me that is another capability of theirs that was overestimated. 

We've been diligently fighting Russian cybercrime for more than a decade.  It's expensive, but orgs who invest in security have been prepared long before this conflict.  I can't speak for utilities and public infra, I'm convinced many still don't have their shit together.  Perhaps Colonial Pipeline was enough to get their acts together, and the sad part about that was their corporate systems were breached while their SCADA systems remained segmented.

I've been running geo blocks on my home network for a while.

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1 hour ago, BachelorTrek said:

Even worse, as I read somewhere that this is Putin's past modus operandi for occupation/subjugation/repression with a rape-&-pillage cheap mercenary army (bent on genocide?), plus ruskies in the motherland couldn't care less if Chechens (and not ruskies) get hurt by an insurgency in vassal serfdom republiks.

If these videos are legit :

 

 

They may be tough, but Boston PD knows how to take them out.

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ShaggyBevo RIP

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Is it more powerful? I know it has much shorter range, but is also a lot easier to deploy. I'd be a bit surprised if the smaller missile was actually more powerful. Certainly makes sense that they are deploying these with Civilian Defense and, I assume, keeping the Javelins for their military units. 

It can pierce the most modern armor which I don't think Javelins can do.

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FartingMonk

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7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Russia/Soviet Union was always a step behind us, but I was shocked just now to see where they are.  Maybe not surprised given their economic situation.

For example, the SU35 is just an improved SU27.  They have an estimated fewer than two dozen of their latest, the SU57.

And if it comes down to electronics, I'll bet on us.

I don't disagree and each time we have feared Russian made air defenses (Iraq, Yugoslavia, Syria) because those were regarded as top notch and we made short work of them.  But in this instance all of those are going to be intact.  Russia just has to set a command center on the other side in Belarus and his command and control would be completely intact.  We are not striking at anything inside because that's world war 3 already.  They set S400s around Kiev and they have a good chance of locking us out of Kiev unless we want a bunch of downed fighters.  We win a lot because we don't even allow our shit to get jammed because we take those out first.  They may be a generation behind but they will be lethal 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

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1 hour ago, troph said:

Wouldn’t surprise me if we did jump in within a few days. Ukraine proves worthy and shows they don’t want Russian involvement and public sentiment changes and we take the skies. Wouldn’t surprise me if “no troops” was carefully chosen this entire time. Wouldn’t surprise me if the plans were made years ago to take the skies, and the only prerequisite was evidence Ukraine could win if we did.  

Cannot we not use the merchant ships in the Black Sea as reason enough?

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No CR— I hope people from anywhere will quit burping up bullshit about how Putin made Russia strong, how he defends Christianity and values, how he’s an example of a good nationalist who loves his country.

Free Ukrainians are fighting like lions and proving that all his swagger rests on drunken, half-educated boys from the village. If it weren’t a fight across weight classifications this would be Ukraine KO in the first round. He’s shooting rockets at schools and orphanages and sending Chechen national guardsmen to murder Orthodox Christians.  He is what a pussy imagines a badass to be. 

 

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Cheeseweasel

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3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

No CR— I hope people from anywhere will quit burping up bullshit about how Putin made Russia strong, how he defends Christianity and values, how he’s an example of a good nationalist who loves his country.

Free Ukrainians are fighting like lions and proving that all his swagger rests on drunken, half-educated boys from the village. If it weren’t a fight across weight classifications this would be Ukraine KO in the first round. He’s shooting rockets at schools and orphanages and sending Chechen national guardsmen to murder Orthodox Christians.  He is what a pussy imagines a badass to be. 

 

Which morons are saying this?

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troph

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Posted
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5 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

For twitter users, this is a great list to follow.   It is all updates with videos and pictures from the Ukraine.  The people on it seem to be excellent at not posting the fake stuff that run wild during times like this.   It is pretty crazy all the footage, following this stuff in real time from the other side of the world is crazy,

Didn;t realize that link would lead to a stream of tweets like that, sorry.

 

 

 

bumping this back to the top, this list is money.  twitter folks here, follow it. shout out to @Ted Lange  note if you hit expand you'll get a long cat.

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HOOKEM4

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No cr...but shitheads move coordinates well with our cycle and the sympathizers we allow to exist. He is daring us to go and gambling we won't.  Meanwhile the sympathizer leader is praising the move and his propaganda machine is fanning the flames. We have to do something more or this will get much wilder. If nukes are launched the oligarchs are fucked. Do they support that?

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atomheartbevo

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2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

The UN proving it is, and always has been, a joke.  We should withdraw from that corrupt organization as long as Russia and China remain.

And let the Russians and Chinese take it over?  Yeah, no thanks, let's stop tucking our tails between our legs.

Look, none of us are happy about the situation, but that's just the way things happen with an organization trying to provide a forum for the entire world - if this happens a year earlier or a year later, it's another country holding that seat.

Here's the thing a lot of us here are missing:  Having the Russian UN rep in that position means that he's having to own the bullshit Putin, etc. are spewing in front of a global audience, and people are laughing at him.  He's having to sit there and listen to countries trash the shit out of him and question the legitimacy of Russia as a nation, and mock his leader.

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If you’re talking about establishing a no-fly zone (U.S. planes shooting at Russian planes), you need to read up on Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” nuclear strategy.  Basically— Russia will go first-use with tactical nuclear weapons in even a regional war in response to situations that are critical to their national security. 
 

It feels awful and helpless to not be able to do more when Ukrainians are fighting like hell. But this what we’re dealing with in Russia.

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atomheartbevo

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2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

This is why part of me thinks except for a few areas, like airports, he is using his conscripts to push fast and die. They can shoot and drive their equipment, but are not the professional core of his army.  The rear groups could be a bit tougher. I have not seen any new graphics on what Russian Units are involved except for their Naval Infantry and some airborne. This is what they did in Grozny. Did not work well that time either, but eventually they were able to get accords and place Putin's buddy in place. 

He can't hold shit with those conscripts though - they have shitty discipline and training which is really bad when they are paused, and those conscripts are dragging his logistics chain to its breaking point, and they are losing vehicles that I really don't think he can afford to lose.

I know people are saying that he's only got 30% or 40% committed to the fight, but if he's going by the old Soviet playbook, that means the rest are held in reserve to exploit any major breakthroughs, and if it's the shitty troops up front, they aren't going to get the kinds of breakthroughs he needs.  Plus that 60-70% are scattered around the eastern part of Ukraine, so how much of a force can he muster to quickly exploit a breakthrough in one area?  10,000 men?  That's a division in the US.  It's a powerful force, sure, but again, we get back to the support vs combat troops ratios in effect.

He's way out over his skis.  If he doesn't get a lot of troops into Kyiv, and take a big chunk of it, tonight, I'd start to think about putting money on Ukraine.

And Kyiv to the border is a helluva logistics chain.

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HOOKEM4

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If you’re talking about establishing a no-fly zone (U.S. planes shooting at Russian planes), you need to read up on Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” nuclear strategy.  Basically— Russia will go first-use with tactical nuclear weapons in even a regional war in response to situations that are critical to their national security. 
 

It feels awful and helpless to not be able to do more when Ukrainians are fighting like hell. But this what we’re dealing with in Russia.

So they commit more war crimes? That is our deterrence? 

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FartingMonk

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9 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

No cr...but shitheads move coordinates well with our cycle and the sympathizers we allow to exist. He is daring us to go and gambling we won't.  Meanwhile the sympathizer leader is praising the move and his propaganda machine is fanning the flames. We have to do something more or this will get much wilder. If nukes are launched the oligarchs are fucked. Do they support that?

Oh shit the fuck up.

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Parliament

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The Ukranians are a very tough people, and their Polish/Romanian/etc neighbors are doing wonderful things, literally waiting at the border to pick up refugees who aren't even there yet.  And how about this thread.  Lotsa love for everyone affected, cut there's more to it than that.  There's another reason for all the vehemence.  The reason?

Everyone in the free World REALLY hates Russia.  The eastern Europeans who have been crapped on by Russia for 400 years, the >40 year old Americans who remember the fear we had for the USSR.  To a large degree, this is catharsis for all of that...and that's awesome. 

Also, let's give the US and western Europe some credit.  This is by far the most we've ever done to protect eastern Europe.  Should we have been better prepared?  Probably.  Do we need to do more?  Definitely.  But we aren't letting an Iron Curtain descend.  At least not let. 

Some other good things:

1) Our intelligence community is playing lights out.  Getting, then broadcasting, Russian intentions in nearly real time.  There's no question in my mind that we've forced them to change time tables.

2) Protests in Russia again today.  Everyone arrested is likely headed to the Gulag or a bullet, and they don't mind.  Who would have predicted that 2 weeks ago?

3) Eastern European countries are literally delivering weapons to the Ukraine.  As I said above, they're placing themselves in Putin's crosshairs, and they don't mind.  Just like the protestors, they don't mind.  In the US, our children are gonna sleep in warm beds tonight.  Polish parents are gonna put their kids to bed and wonder if they are the next country Putin invades.

4) The World community is coalescing, for the most part.  Yeah there's fighting over carve-outs.  We haven't siezed all the Oligarchs' yachts and sugarbabies.  And Germany is making themselves pariahs.  But still, there's so much unity.  And even China might join in.  Again, 2 weeks ago did you ever think Xi would ghost Putin.

It's gonna get worse before it gets better.  But let's all take a breath and appreciate what we're doing RIGHT.

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