Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[troph 24905]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Correct. This has a big chance of getting horrifically ugly. Which is also how Russia can really lose this.



They will face global opposition, but they may also face….



Indiscriminate attacks on European population centers may actually prompt that response. And it may not be just NATO. It may be a joint NATO EU action.



I mean….at this point….I’m listening.

I was saying the sentiment was shifting yesterday early for air support/no-fly zone and was pretty much dismissed.  if you really want to follow this start looking a few days and weeks out and project the trend lines.  I see no way the world including the US let's him flatten Ukrainian cities.  I just don't see it.

[FartingMonk 3608]

8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

This is a bit outside the confines of this thread, so I apologize in advance, but I wonder if this invasion of Ukraine will do for members of the far right in the US and other countries and their faux worship of Putin as the emblem of their beliefs, the same kinds of things tanks rolling through Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 50s and 60s did to the far left in the US and other countries that saw the USSR as their hero. 

Of course we're seeing an outpouring of support, just as there were always parts of the public in the US who felt like the USSR were the good guys. But they became more isolated and fringe-y rather than becoming more popular as the USSR committed atrocities.

We'll never be 100% on this as a country, and I don't actually want us to be. 100% support requires a level of suppression that I'm not going to advocate. But I would like for people in this country who feel some kind of sympathetic connection to Putin to feel like they're disconnected from the mainstream in the same way the communists in the US felt in the 50s and 60s. 

Anyway, this tweet from Liz Cheney, who in very specific ways is my Republican hero, just tweeted this out a couple of hours ago:

 

Shut the fuck up donny

[troph 24905]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

I think there's an outside of chance of a Russian withdraw if Putin begins to sense that he is becoming more and more vulnerable, thus affecting his power and chances of staying in power.

I think this is the hope of sanctions, weapons support and Ukrainian grit.  But we have to be prepared for the worst.

[troph 24905]

SOMEBODY SMART:  What the FUCK is this, I've asked nicely now don't ignore me!!

 

[Parliament 14286]

9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

This is a bit outside the confines of this thread, so I apologize in advance, but I wonder if this invasion of Ukraine will do for members of the far right in the US and other countries and their faux worship of Putin as the emblem of their beliefs, the same kinds of things tanks rolling through Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the 50s and 60s did to the far left in the US and other countries that saw the USSR as their hero. 

Of course we're seeing an outpouring of support, just as there were always parts of the public in the US who felt like the USSR were the good guys. But they became more isolated and fringe-y rather than becoming more popular as the USSR committed atrocities.

We'll never be 100% on this as a country, and I don't actually want us to be. 100% support requires a level of suppression that I'm not going to advocate. But I would like for people in this country who feel some kind of sympathetic connection to Putin to feel like they're disconnected from the mainstream in the same way the communists in the US felt in the 50s and 60s. 

Anyway, this tweet from Liz Cheney, who in very specific ways is my Republican hero, just tweeted this out a couple of hours ago:

 

So don't post it here.  There's an entire Cloak Room for stuff like this.

[SL Xpress 7518]

10 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It makes me think of the pre-WW2 pageantry of Mussolini's 8 Million Bayonets, vs the Italian Army's actual performance in the attack. 

There is always unforeseen friction once things start up. I imagine there's more friction cropping up in Russian plans than most.

That's a great analogy.

Frankly, the performance of the USSR in Afghanistan is another one. 

I really imagined this battle to be something like the US military efforts in Iraq or Afghanistan, or the Israelis in the 6 day war or the initial days of their invasion of Lebanon in 1982. I knew about the limitations of the Russian military in terms of their reliance on conscription, but I didn't fathom how poorly trained and equipped they actually are, or how it would manifest itself on the battle field. They had a lot of the same issues in Georgia when they invaded there, which is when Putin ordered a major overhaul which allegedly improved the overall fighting force. It obviously hasn't. There are systemic issues there, that start with how they build their force, the infrastructure supporting it, and how their command and control operates.

I don't know if it's a good thing to have our fears reduced regarding the Russian military. They're still formidable, and obviously willing to use it. Maybe a larger than life fear is a good thing in some ways? In any case, this has certainly dispelled a lot of illusions I held about how competent Russia would be in conducting a full scale military attack. It's also given me an even greater appreciation for how formidable the US military is. Not that I didn't know it before, but all of this certainly cements it (not talking about how they perform as an occupation force, mind you - simply from the perspective of going against another standing army).

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

20 minutes ago, TurkeyChew said:

This more than anything would prompt Mad Vlad to use nukes. Messing with a man’s money is like messing with his emotions, as Big Worm once said.

I mean- if it happens it happens. I’d rather he use nukes than live in a world where I’m subject to the whims of a madman just because he has nukes. Fuck it- he can roll the dice with world survival if he wants to. We have nukes too. I suspect it wouldn’t go there and there are sane people over there who would step in and stop it, but if the trade off for not using them is him indiscriminately bombing civilian population centers than I suppose he has to do what he has to do and we will have to do what we have to do. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[JesusSweatDuck 17809]

1 minute ago, troph said:

SOMEBODY SMART:  What the FUCK is this, I've asked nicely now don't ignore me!!

 

Could it be those weapons we promised?

[Neonmoon 38130]

This is awesome 

 

[SL Xpress 7518]

10 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

there's a thread in CR for this. 

I can't seem to post in CR. Anyway, my apologies. It wasn't my intent to sidetrack things, but I knew the risk.

[troph 24905]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- if it happens it happens. I’d rather he use nukes than live in a world where I’m subject to the whims of a madman just because he has nukes. Fuck it- he can roll the dice with world survival if he wants to. We have nukes too. I suspect it wouldn’t go there and there are sane people are puns who would step in and stop it, but if the trade off for not using them is him indiscriminately binning civilian population centers than I suppose he has to do what he has to do and we will have to do what we have to do. 

I think the world calculus is fast approaching this view point.  what's the alternative let him flatten cities with conventional weaponry?  yeah fuck that. 

I can't imagine those around him will follow orders to send ICBMS to DC, I just don't see it.  I suspect the worst case is a war created chernobyl which is awful awful awful but that's not extinction level shit.

 

[Constant 6754]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

This is awesome 

 

How the world should work. 

[troph 24905]

2 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Could it be those weapons we promised?

special ops COMMAND?? on the border? 

 

edit probably weapons delivery yeah.

 

the plane is special ops but it's not special ops setting up at the border, that was my first thought holy fuck are we delivering special ops troops to the border??

Edited February 26, 2022 by troph

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

The move would be considered the nuclear option when it comes to responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Uh, I can think of something else in a war with Russia that would be considered the nuclear option. 

[Parliament 14286]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

I can't seem to post in CR. Anyway, my apologies. It wasn't my intent to sidetrack things, but I knew the risk.

Consider yourself lucky.  It's a shithole over there.  And no apology necessary.

[SL Xpress 7518]

Just now, Parliament said:

Consider yourself lucky.  It's a shithole over there.  And no apology necessary.

Well, I pissed off several people with the post, so consider that an apology to all of you. No need to clutter up things with multiple apologies.

[Bateshorn 9929]

24 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It makes me think of the pre-WW2 pageantry of Mussolini's 8 Million Bayonets, vs the Italian Army's actual performance in the attack. 

There is always unforeseen friction once things start up. I imagine there's more friction cropping up in Russian plans than most.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. -Mike Tyson. 

[troph 24905]

grain of salt?

Edited February 26, 2022 by troph

[Neonmoon 38130]

Already posted 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Neonmoon

[cactusflinthead 27601]

5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I can't seem to post in CR. Anyway, my apologies. It wasn't my intent to sidetrack things, but I knew the risk.

Ask immamac. 

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

26 minutes ago, troph said:

smart people please explain: @FartingMonk @atomheartbevo @956 Worldwide

 

 

Used for insertion of SpecOps personnel. Could also be used for Command and Control. May be putting into place /closer to border for something bigger coming up.

[troph 24905]

 

[Deej 76897]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. -Buster Douglas. 

Fixed

 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

54 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think that's why so many people are confused about this.  I honestly believe he has some sort of terminal cancer.  But this is not Vlad who is cold and calculated.  

The Russian military force that we thought was so mighty was and is part of our conditioning growing up.  But we really have not seen his whole army actually fight a good war.  His wins are by his top tier units who are scary good.  So I would say his 1 percent is fucking terrifying.  The other 99 are scrubs

Yeah, but Putin has also been a gambler in the past, and gamblers can't always control their impulses, and they don't assess risks, they guess.  He's even bragged about it.

[Parliament 14286]

If he feels bad enough, maybe he'll change sides?

[Doc Sam Beckett 5797]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Well, I pissed off several people with the post, so consider that an apology to all of you. No need to clutter up things with multiple apologies.

The only reason it pissed off several people is we can't take another JerryJehri'sCurl post about keeping it in the CR. 

[troph 24905]

Just now, BillyGoatHill said:

Used for insertion of SpecOps personnel. Could also be used for Command and Control. May be putting into place /closer to border for something bigger coming up.

that's what I was wondering.  baby steps. inching closer to joining the fight? we have a long history of special forces not really counting in the promise of "no troops on the ground".

[Braff Zacklin 13650]

A minor (and amusing) joy from this whole situation is how the Seinfeld meme from 27 years ago is accurate: Ukraine is not weak.

[956 Worldwide 34747]

Just now, BillyGoatHill said:

Used for insertion of SpecOps personnel. Could also be used for Command and Control. May be putting into place /closer to border for something bigger coming up.

Could also be used to refuel rotary aircraft. We are running Allied reassurance patrols all up and down the border and very possibly we want to keep helicopters in the air. 
 

That aircraft is not running guns to Rzeszow. 

[TurkeyChew 383]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, but Putin has also been a gambler in the past, and gamblers can't always control their impulses, and they don't assess risks, they guess.  He's even bragged about it.

You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em; know when to fold ‘em. When to walk away and when to run.

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

6 minutes ago, troph said:

I think the world calculus is fast approaching this view point.  what's the alternative let him flatten cities with conventional weaponry?  yeah fuck that. 

I can't imagine those around him will follow orders to send ICBMS to DC, I just don't see it.  I suspect the worst case is a war created chernobyl which is awful awful awful but that's not extinction level shit.

 

I mean, if I can say with a straight face that his job is to stay there and die in a conflict to become a martyr for the betterment of mankind in a really high odds of him dying kind of way then morally, don’t I have to be willing to risk my and my families lives to nuclear destruction under the same line of thought. 
I say yes. 
life isn’t valuable enough to live it without freedom, autonomy, or a coherent and moral governing (internal to me I mean) philosophy. 

[crash_davis 23114]

 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

53 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Just to be clear, they will not be flying over Ukrainian airspace. They’re equipped with long range cruise missiles with a 1,000 + nautical mile range. They will launch from Russian airspace. 

I wonder how many they actually have, given that they are apparently deficient in the short/medium ranges.

And if they are going through the trouble of getting bombers airborne to launch long range cruise missiles, it tells you that A) Russia knows they don't have air superiority (otherwise SU-25s SU-35s etc. would be working the place over) and B) They are out of the cheaper short/medium range missiles.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Deej said:

Fixed

 

[Bateshorn 9929]

34 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

China in a surprising move yesterday voted to abstain.  China wants no part of this.  They are happy to be a spectator.  They are OU scouting the Aggy-Texas game

 

Their just biding their time, waiting for an angle to appear that they can exploit.  

[Jiggy-Z 3435]

5 minutes ago, troph said:

 

That should buff right out.

[Brisketexan 105275]

If he feels bad enough, maybe he'll change sides?

Desert or change sides. Those are your choices. Because the other one is “participate in war crimes and be killed for it.” Think on it, boys. But not for too long.

[TurkeyChew 383]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, if I can say with a straight face that his job is to stay there and die in a conflict to become a martyr for the betterment of mankind in a really high odds of him dying kind of way then morally, don’t I have to be willing to risk my and my families lives to nuclear destruction under the same line of thought. 
I say yes. 
life isn’t valuable enough to live it without freedom, autonomy, or a coherent and moral governing (internal to me I mean) philosophy. 

Agree.

[Neonmoon 38130]

 

[RDCanecutter 26466]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, but Putin has also been a gambler in the past, and gamblers can't always control their impulses, and they don't assess risks, they guess.  He's even bragged about it.

"Every gambler ends up getting buried in the potter's field." -- some dude in a bar down the street, 10 years ago.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ask immamac. 

PM Derka. 

[Anastasis 23481]

10 minutes ago, troph said:

I think the world calculus is fast approaching this view point.  what's the alternative let him flatten cities with conventional weaponry?  yeah fuck that. 

I can't imagine those around him will follow orders to send ICBMS to DC, I just don't see it.  I suspect the worst case is a war created chernobyl which is awful awful awful but that's not extinction level shit.

Doesn't have to be ICBMs. Russia got a shit load of tactical nukes they could deploy if they wanted to try to thread a very dangerous needle. 

[crash_davis 23114]

supposedly Macron was on the phone an hour with Lukashenko. he's about to find out.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

8 minutes ago, troph said:

grain of salt?

Huge grain. But psych ops is big in a war where you are asking your troops to fight their “cousins”. 

[troph 24905]

anyone fighting off 1980's thermonuclear war nightmares?  one of my reoccurring nightmares as a kid of the 80's was nuclear war and right as the missiles were to hit I'd wake up in a sweat.

Edited February 26, 2022 by troph

[MillerEP 30494]

40 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Agreed but doesn't China's veto make it a moot point?

They didn't veto, they abstained. They probably would veto this move though over fear they'll be next.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

"Every gambler ends up getting buried in the potter's field." -- some dude in a bar down the street, 10 years ago.

Kenny Rogers? 

[troph 24905]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I wonder how many they actually have, given that they are apparently deficient in the short/medium ranges.

And if they are going through the trouble of getting bombers airborne to launch long range cruise missiles, it tells you that A) Russia knows they don't have air superiority (otherwise SU-25s SU-35s etc. would be working the place over) and B) They are out of the cheaper short/medium range missiles.

US DOD says they've launched 250+ missiles so far.