Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[StruggleBus 3922]

3 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

while  I’m not making excuses for anybody or their mistakes

That’s exactly what you’re doing. Germany’s energy policy failures are theirs and theirs alone, and have nothing to do with any former US administration. 

[TwiceHorn 31440]

2 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

yeah, Trump alienated the Germans (no CR speaking from the Germans perspective) also the refugee situation has caused huge pressures internally politically and as Merkel has finally retired many of the people who were vying for her place afterwards felt they could not count on the US like they had in the past. Indeed, they made a deal with the devil.

while  I’m not making excuses for anybody or their mistakes, I feel like this unfortunate mess will repolarize our allies with us and could lead to some real positives for the world. Ukrainians are literally fighting for all of us right now

Yeah, it was getting easy to view Russia as fairly benign, if corrupt as hell.  That's out the window until there's a regime change.

And, I think US leadership on this has been solid.  And I am virtually certain that our intel and surveillance of the rooskies is playing a huge part in keeping the Ukrainians in the fight.  That's the one thing we could do pretty unilaterally.

[atomheartbevo 89629]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

  I do think that shortly, either deliberately or accidentally, the Russians will do something that triggers Article 5.  The question at that point is will we do something retaliatory on a commiserate level or we will in turn up the ante (i.e. say they hit a convoy, we we return in kind or will we up the ante to include air support).  If NATO begins air support operations Russian will be done in Ukraine in hours.  Does Vlad then up the ante?  

They aren't going to start a war with NATO, when they can't even handle Ukrainian civilians.

While they fucked around in the Black Sea with some of the shipping they hit, it was not on the way to finding out.

[Longhornlove 4809]

40 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Ha.  If you think Ukraine had to be talked out of it then you've got it all wrong.  Ukraine didn't want the nukes.  Russia didn't want the nukes.  Maintaining a nuclear weapon is incredibly expensive and Ukraine didn't have the money to maintain it.  Provide security for it.  The retrofit of it would have been insanely expensive.  It would have been in a very bad shape so when the US said they would buy it and gave an assurance for security they happily agreed.  Now were they hoodwinked because they thought assurance and guarantee meant the same thing?  Probably.  

 

That's part of my point, we gave them assurances that we would protect them. We didn't,  but guess what, politicians lie.

[dcar00 14155]

3 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Seems like an uneventful night. I guess that’s good?

we'll see.  if the goal is to surround Kiev with overwhelming numbers and request surrender/capitulation they still need south and east to get there.

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Seems like an uneventful night. I guess that’s good?

Seems like 4:30 local Kiev time has been when the heavy shelling has occurred there the past few nights.  Since that has past perhaps?????

[Nivek 16923]

20 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Anti-Javelin tank cages are 90% off too! 

you misread that, it's the T-72s that are 90% off.

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They aren't going to start a war with NATO, when they can't even handle Ukrainian civilians.

While they fucked around in the Black Sea with some of the shipping they hit, it was not on the way to finding out.

Oh, I actually don't think they will do it deliberately.  I think the townie/hick group of soldiers they have will fuck up on accident.  

[Nivek 16923]

52 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

betty boop, nice gams...

sorry, been running out of rep every day to give. 

[TwiceHorn 31440]

1 minute ago, Longhornlove said:

That's part of my point, we gave them assurances that we would protect them. We didn't,  but guess what, politicians lie.

Except we didn't.

Quote

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

— Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons^[10]

 

[Longhornlove 4809]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

There's only one person to blame for this, the asshole who ordered the attack.

That is bullshit.

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1501]

Part of why I like Tom Clancy books so much is the extensive research he does on stuff.  A lot of his stuff is scary accurate.  I remember some of his books scared the DOD so much that they thought he was leaked.classified info that they asked him to show him the book before it got published.  The amount of access he got to the military was insane.

Sum of All Fears had a disclaimer that his detailed explanations of the inner workings of a nuclear weapon were intentionally wrong for obvious reasons. I’m sure the government was involved in that one. I think it was probably a give and take relationship for him and the govt/ military. They gave him access and insight, he let them edit things that were too sensitive, and the military got books that people loved and made them look like badasses. Good propaganda.

[FartingMonk 3606]

3 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

That's part of my point, we gave them assurances that we would protect them. We didn't,  but guess what, politicians lie.

But this administration didn't decide that.  The UN decided that in 2014 with Crimea. They said assurances aren't guarantees.  Blame the UN.  I fucking hate the UN.  

 

[TwiceHorn 31440]

1 minute ago, Longhornlove said:

That is bullshit.

Wut?

[ChiTownDoc 21144]

6 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

If Putin can’t win quickly using air superiority and his attack copters and jets to neutralize Ukraine’s armor (here I’m thinking about images of the ‘Highway of Death’ and Kuwait after we owned the skies) then Ukraine has a puncher’s chance of hanging on and bleeding the Bear until the Oligarchs and Russian people shut it down or remove Putin.

This is the entire game.  Just land body blows and stay up.  Each day they don't get subdued, their chances improve.  Love these people. So much resolve.  Wife's family is looking how to help.  Her parents still in Slovakia and it's quickly going to become a crisis.  She plans to head there in a month or so.  I'm not sure how we can help, but we will. 

I'd like to think we'd have the same type of fight but this country feels broken under the weight of too many regards. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[rpspeed 1363]

 

[Longhornlove 4809]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

But this administration didn't decide that.  The UN decided that in 2014 with Crimea. They said assurances aren't guarantees.  Blame the UN.  I fucking hate the UN.  

 

I don't like the UN either, been worthless money pit for the US for a long time.

[texastough 1129]

2 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

That is bullshit.

Have you been drinking tonight? You might want to read for a while and stay away from the keyboard. I'm referring to every one of your posts i've read today

[Brisketexan 105075]

Prior to this thing starting up, we were also having to walk a fine line between being stern with our warnings and not pissing off our Euro allies, Germany in particular. The whole of Europe was like acting like it was no big deal and America was being dramatic or something.

That’s something to come out of this: American intel was revealed to be solid 24k gold again. Others, such as Germany….was most certainly not.

SnipeX looks fun to me.

I hope it gets quite the workout.

Stacks of russian body bags are an essential element in ending this.

[Eastwood 4394]

 

I wanna party with that guy, but now I know for sure I couldn't hang.

[Dahobbs 17526]

4 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

That is bullshit.

Just stop man. Go to bed. 

[PTINS 3465]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

It is strange.  they haven't moved hard on Odessa yet from the maps(but maybe there is and not seeing it).  Maybe they are just in holding position on Kiev until the south and east get there.

I throught one of the bridges UA took out was down there.  A little help?

[TwiceHorn 31440]

3 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

 

I take that as solid gold information that confirms what we believed.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Good idea, and I just did.  Would you mind doing the same?  Let's put RT on blast.

Already did.  

[The Ace of Aces 5175]

5 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

That is bullshit.

:stares at my 2 degrees on my office wall about Russian history and my 3+ years spent there:

Not everything is about American diplomacy. This was unavoidable. And it’s going incredibly poorly for Putin - his gambit to retake what he believes is Russian territory is actually what will do him in. It’s standard Russian history, really. 

[Longhornlove 4809]

2 minutes ago, texastough said:

Have you been drinking tonight? You might want to read for a while and stay away from the keyboard. I'm referring to every one of your posts i've read today

No I haven't been drinking. Are you stalking me or something. I threw some jokes in there too.

[Longhornlove 4809]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Just stop man. Go to bed. 

Nope

[Dahobbs 17526]

1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

:stares at my 2 degrees on my office wall about Russian history and my 3+ years spent there:

Not everything is about American diplomacy. This was unavoidable. And it’s going incredibly poorly for Putin - his gambit to retake what he believes is Russian territory is actually what will do him in. It’s standard Russian history, really. 

Eta. 

[Longhornlove 4809]

1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

:stares at my 2 degrees on my office wall about Russian history and my 3+ years spent there:

Not everything is about American diplomacy. This was unavoidable. And it’s going incredibly poorly for Putin - his gambit to retake what he believes is Russian territory is actually what will do him in. It’s standard Russian history, really. 

Be proud of your degrees, you earned them. I disagree about this being unavoidable, just an opinion. Your last sentence is spot on.

[atomheartbevo 89629]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

This whole day makes absolutely no sense at all.  Putin did absolutely nothing today.   Unless he is inserting covert units in this makes no sense.  Either Putin is dead or Zelensky is dead.

5 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Seems like an uneventful night. I guess that’s good?

I wonder if the bombers were just to try and intimidate Ukraine, because they should have launched their missiles well before now - it's going to be dawn there soon.  There's speculation that they launched the missiles at other targets, but we should have seen that already.

Obviously the Russians can't fight well at night, and they damn sure couldn't fight in Kyiv when they don't have night vision gear and don't know the city at all.

There is fighting going on elsewhere, but the pause with Kyiv is really fucking weird, because every hour that they don't capture the city, is another opportunity for more Stingers, NLAWS, Javelins, etc. to come into the city and just get out to the Ukrainian defenses in general, and the city would be the perfect place for St. Javelin to bestow her blessings on those tanks.

Rubio posted this a little while ago:

 

[texastough 1129]

3 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

No I haven't been drinking. Are you stalking me or something. I threw some jokes in there too.

I've been catching up on this thread for the last couple hours and every time I found myself shaking my head at the dumb, it was one of your posts

[atomheartbevo 89629]

13 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

That is bullshit.

12 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Wut?

Let me guess, somebody would like to risk playing a little game.

[Bevo Num1 1011]

:stares at my 2 degrees on my office wall about Russian history and my 3+ years spent there:
Not everything is about American diplomacy. This was unavoidable. And it’s going incredibly poorly for Putin - his gambit to retake what he believes is Russian territory is actually what will do him in. It’s standard Russian history, really. 

I read this in a whisper voice.

[rpspeed 1363]

Wonder what those orders are?

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

Zelensky usually pops up around this time.......

[phdhorn 6224]

32 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Recall, too, that Ukraine wasn’t exactly a model world citizen. They had to overthrow their government as recently as 2014

It’s a bit too simpleminded to just look at today and suggest they should have been left with nukes

This is one of the better posts in the last half day. I followed this stuff really closely in 2014 and Ukraine was a total cesspool. It was possibly more corrupt than Russia and I had no sympathy for the Ukrainians back then. The last thing in the world I would have wanted is for these people to have access to the button at the time it was the right thing to do. But somehow, some way, they managed to stabilize after basically 20 years of awful, awful governance and the last two or three years have been stellar.

It hasn't been long at all, since Ukraine has emerged as a real worthy recipient of the West's blessings. If you were to ask most people about Zelenskyy even a week ago they may have rolled their eyes, especially at his seemingly casual dismissal of the invasion, and his chastising the US for hyping up the possibility. We now know that he was certainly playing all this like an ace gambler and knew exactly what he was doing. This guy looks to be a once in a half-century quality leader

As for getting the allies together, I think it also has to be said that there was still a lot of dissension in the ranks is little as two days ago (witness Germany, italy, the Czechs, and Hungary), but only when Europe began to see what a farce Russia was as recently as Thursday with the start of the invasion, they completely changed their tune and began to pour in assistance and defiance against Russia very quickly. I'm not sure that would've happened had Russia been more formidable.

Edited February 27, 2022 by phdhorn

[FartingMonk 3606]

Just now, rpspeed said:

Wonder what those orders are?

 

Wow. That is fucking ominous

[atomheartbevo 89629]

Some of you mentioned that the intelligence community was keeping an eye on social media, OSINT, etc.  We all knew they were doing that, you'd be an idiot not to.

 

[NAVY 6740]

I expect we’ll see some kind of Ukraine “Doolittle” raid in the next 48  

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

Guessing the orders are related to thermobaric at civilian targets. 

[atomheartbevo 89629]

2 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

Wonder what those orders are?

Could be tied to using these against cities - these are war crimes on tracks.

 

[TwiceHorn 31440]

2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Wow. That is fucking ominous

And, I doubt it was posted just for the heck of it.  There is probably some indication of doubt among the military leaders.

[Nightfly 61]

45 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The hardest part on developing a nuclear weapon is getting the enriched plutonium.  There's an old saying if you got the plutonium you're 90 percent there on a nuclear weapon.  The rest of that 10 percent is a few calculations that a dude could do and spec the delivery system.

 

Also quite difficult is the explosive lensing to compress the sub-critical plutonium in a perfect sphere pattern to detonate. A lot of the Manhattan project work was around this and the Trinity test was to see if this worked (Fat man bomb type). The highly enriched uranium 235 (Little Boy) was far more crude and never tested. They knew it would work. 

[Longhornlove 4809]

1 minute ago, texastough said:

I've been catching up on this thread for the last couple hours and every time I found myself shaking my head at the dumb, it was one of your posts

You and others misunderstand what I'm saying but that's okay. I do incident investigations for a living. There is rarely ever one singular action that results in an event. That being said, ultimately Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. That didn't just happen out of the blue, there are many other events that led to that, many other contributing factors. He didn't just wake up one morning and say, hey, let's go kill people in Ukraine. It isn't that simple, never has been, never will be.

[brakeman 28357]

 

[dimyh 1874]

So while all eyes are on Ukraine is there any type of move on Belarus? Earlier Macron was talking about the Russians deploying nukes on their territory. Is that a violation of any type of agreement? Lukashenko hates Putin but becoming the staging ground for an invasion and nukes is making them a straightup vassal. With Tsikhanouskaya still trying to make claims as the legitimate president any thoughts of a coupe? Which may or may not be assisted by NATO assets (allegedly...got to keep the plausible deniability). If staged as public supported uprising then it might give Putin a taste of his own underhanded medicine. That would throw another wrench in the Russian's logistics.

Fun to think about but I'm guessing that Putin would take that as a direct attack and put us directly at war. Which I'm still hesitant to pursue when you have someone desperately backed into a corner with that red button threat.

 

[texastough 1129]

1 minute ago, rpspeed said:

Wonder what those orders are?

 

This seems to imply we can listen to Putin's orders to his commanders? Is that to fuck with his head because if we really can intercept those comms, why would we admit that? 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Parliament 14246]

31 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Part of why I like Tom Clancy books so much is the extensive research he does on stuff.  A lot of his stuff is scary accurate.  I remember some of his books scared the DOD so much that they thought he was leaked.classified info that they asked him to show him the book before it got published.  The amount of access he got to the military was insane.

Something about how our subs navigated in the Hunt for Red October.