Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[GW Hayduke 1953]

3 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

I'm not being cryptic, you can look it up yourself. Root Cause analysis Root cause analysis (RCA) is the process of discovering the root causes of problems in order to identify appropriate solutions. RCA assumes that it is much more effective to systematically prevent and solve for underlying issues rather than just treating ad hoc symptoms and putting out fires. 

there are may different forms of "RCA"

So you think Putin’s mom should have given him more hugs and kisses?

[Mach 1 1677]

6 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

I'm not being cryptic, you can look it up yourself. Root Cause analysis Root cause analysis (RCA) is the process of discovering the root causes of problems in order to identify appropriate solutions. RCA assumes that it is much more effective to systematically prevent and solve for underlying issues rather than just treating ad hoc symptoms and putting out fires. 

there are may different forms of "RCA

6 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

I'm not being cryptic, you can look it up yourself. Root Cause analysis Root cause analysis (RCA) is the process of discovering the root causes of problems in order to identify appropriate solutions. RCA assumes that it is much more effective to systematically prevent and solve for underlying issues rather than just treating ad hoc symptoms and putting out fires. 

there are may different forms of "RCA"

RCA up your ass. People are being killed because a madman stuck in 1980s Soviet Union has the power to *try* to turn back the clock. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Mach 1

[dcar00 14375]

3 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

 

Their policy failure were their fault. No argument. Those policies were, however, most defiantly reactionary to Trumps European policy change. They made public statements many times outlining how their nation would be forced to deal with Russia. In 2017 Trump defined his administrations position very clearly in Europe and it was shocking to people there. At the time, this was fuel for the “Putin Puppet” narrative since the Germans most important ally was in essence turning their back on them. The US didn’t say “go do business with Russia” but there was little choice when the burdens of the refugees hit.

yeah Germany didn't like be called on their bullshit.

[TwiceHorn 31539]

Just now, GW Hayduke said:

So you think Putin’s mom should have given him more hugs and kisses?

AnnaLynne McCord, imo.

[troph 24911]

Worried we haven’t heard from Zelensky hopeful we haven’t heard from Putin.

[SimonBolivar 10960]

11 minutes ago, Mach 1 said:

If we’re all misunderstanding what you’re saying why don’t you spell it out for us? You investigate “incidents” I’d assume that would entail some detailed analysis other than cryptic bullshit on an internet board.

I too used to be a liabilty claims adjuster

[atomheartbevo 89810]

USAF doing a lot of flying.  These are out of Nebraska.

 

[Victor Lazlo 1777]

39 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

And, I doubt it was posted just for the heck of it.  There is probably some indication of doubt among the military leaders.

Yeah, and I don’t know shit about fuck, but have to believe that we have back channel communications with some rational players on the Russian side.

Who don’t want this to get totally out of control.

Hopefully.

 

[MillerEP 30501]

Mark Hamill is a National Treasure:

 

 

 

 

[crash_davis 23115]

 

[TwiceHorn 31539]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

USAF doing a lot of flying.  These are out of Nebraska.

 

"C-135."  RC-135 ELINT planes to be precise.  Rivet Joint.  Imagine that's where a lot of lil Marco's tweets are coming from.

And 10 missions?  I suspect at least one of those is airborne 24/7.  They can be refueled aerially by the KC-135s.

Edited February 27, 2022 by TwiceHorn

[PTINS 3485]

38 minutes ago, brakeman said:

 "... Choosing between 2 fucking bastards..."

Funny, I was asked ~ 2015 who I would vote for if it came down to Trump & Hillary, and I said it would never come to that.  

[F250 28823]

52 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

You and others misunderstand what I'm saying but that's okay. I do incident investigations for a living. There is rarely ever one singular action that results in an event. That being said, ultimately Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. That didn't just happen out of the blue, there are many other events that led to that, many other contributing factors. He didn't just wake up one morning and say, hey, let's go kill people in Ukraine. It isn't that simple, never has been, never will be.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[atomheartbevo 89810]

46 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

You and others misunderstand what I'm saying but that's okay. I do incident investigations for a living. There is rarely ever one singular action that results in an event. That being said, ultimately Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. That didn't just happen out of the blue, there are many other events that led to that, many other contributing factors. He didn't just wake up one morning and say, hey, let's go kill people in Ukraine. It isn't that simple, never has been, never will be.

He literally put out a fucking manifesto in July of 2021 outlining how he thought Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia belonged together and making up some bullshit to justify it all, and claimed that Ukraine shouldn't have Donbas.

When autocratic world leaders who have a lot of resources at their disposal tell you what they want to do or what they believe, you should listen to them.

Kremlin.ru is down for some strange reason, but here's an archive

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224021836/http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Quote

Apparently, and I am becoming more and more convinced of this: Kiev simply does not need Donbas.

Quote

I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. 

And if that stops working, plenty of websites have discussed Putin's dreams/plans/goals arising from that July 2021 article:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-ukraine-invasion-rationale-july-2021

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-putin-wrote-his-own-history-of-ukraine/a-58288225

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/russia-ukraine-conflict-war-news-update-1917690-2022-02-25

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/2/22/22945816/ukrainian-americans-national-identity-russia-putin-invasion-threat-the-conversation-op-ed

 

 

[MillerEP 30501]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kremlin.ru is down for some strange reason, but here's an archive

Anonymous is constantly attacking Russia and Chechnya:

 

[crash_davis 23115]

just tweeting this. given how many of the captured Russian troops didn't know what the fuck they were doing in Ukraine, highly doubt Russian military is handing out gas masks.  

 

[atomheartbevo 89810]

54 minutes ago, texastough said:

This seems to imply we can listen to Putin's orders to his commanders? Is that to fuck with his head because if we really can intercept those comms, why would we admit that? 

Either they got word of some bad orders (using the thermobaric stuff, leveling cities, etc.) and this is a nudge in the direction of "we've laid a lot of heavy shit on you, push it farther and we'll crater your economy/put you on trial for warcrimes if you step foot out of Russia or Belarus".

Or they are trying to make Putin paranoid or drive a wedge between him and his generals.

And where they are getting this info could be in the Kremlin (hello Cardinal of the Kremlin!) or comms intercepted between the Kremlin and the border areas (the generals) or between the border/staging areas (generals) down to the regiment/battalion commanders (colonels).

 

[Gatorubet 30321]

If we’re all misunderstanding what you’re saying why don’t you spell it out for us? You investigate “incidents” I’d assume that would entail some detailed analysis other than cryptic bullshit on an internet board.

He’s a GEICO Claims Adjuster.

[atomheartbevo 89810]

1 minute ago, crash_davis said:

just tweeting this. given how many of the captured Russian troops didn't know what the fuck they were doing in Ukraine, highly doubt Russian military is handing out gas masks.  

Lest we forget, they've been playing with all kinds of chemical agents over the years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_hostage_crisis_chemical_agent

 

[troph 24911]

can we stop engaging him please?  and twitter videos are not coming in as fast as before, wonder what's going on out there?  and still no zelensky or putin.  really kind of odd.

[tx 3 putt 77462]

44 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

 

 

you put together groups of hunters, and you hunt them down. take them out by any means 

[F250 28823]

3 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

just tweeting this. given how many of the captured Russian troops didn't know what the fuck they were doing in Ukraine, highly doubt Russian military is handing out gas masks.  

 

Damn. Calling out the Russian playbook before they take a snap is gangster.

"You don't want to do that son lest you get a cap in your ass."

 

[Scheiss Meister 8413]

13 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

 

Lots of automatic weapons fire, as expected, but that burst from the rotary weapon surprised me.  Lots of rounds in a quick burst, and it looked like they carried quite a punch at the other end.  More than I would think that 7.62 rounds would carry.  Interesting.

[PTINS 3485]

29 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

We share more of our American culture with Germany and have more in common with Germans than the English since English manners are mostly derived from the Germanic Courts as their Royal line is in fact German. Somewhat ironic since today their directness is in contrast to the masterful English passive aggression. 

Germans were also the Royal leaders of Mexico and influenced a great deal of their culture as well.

Im not trying to tell you to like Germans, rather just pointing out that lots of people in the world view Americans the way we view Germans.

Stephen F. Austin "recruited" Germans to colonize Texas. Gave them a section of land if they came with a baby-making spouse.  They were hard working and resourseful. My belief is they made peace w/ the Comanche's because of those traits, and they knew how to brew beer.  Been to Kerrville, Fredricksburg, New Braunfels, Castroville, etc.?

[troph 24911]

conflicting reports...

Edited February 27, 2022 by troph

[MillerEP 30501]

😆

[Longhornlove 4896]

[conVINCEd 21469]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

 

you put together groups of hunters, and you hunt them down. take them out by any means 

I imagine we could do it in under an hour if we decided to.  I realize we are playing chicken here, but I’m in favor of not having that thing unleashed on a highly populated urban area.

[crash_davis 23115]

 

[OU Sucks 8916]

6 minutes ago, F250 said:

Damn. Calling out the Russian playbook before they take a snap is gangster.

"You don't want to do that son lest you get a cap in your ass."

Putin must love that every command he makes is being posted all over Twitter before it goes into effect.

Edited February 27, 2022 by OU Sucks

[tx 3 putt 77462]

1 minute ago, conVINCEd said:

I imagine we could do it in under an hour if we decided to.  I realize we are playing chicken here, but I’m in favor of not having that thing unleashed on a highly populated urban area.

 

[brakeman 28436]

[Nivek 16987]

1 hour ago, Longhornlove said:

You and others misunderstand what I'm saying but that's okay. I do incident investigations for a living. There is rarely ever one singular action that results in an event. That being said, ultimately Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. That didn't just happen out of the blue, there are many other events that led to that, many other contributing factors. He didn't just wake up one morning and say, hey, let's go kill people in Ukraine. It isn't that simple, never has been, never will be.

When dumb people say obvious shit because it was profound to them Exhibit 2.

[crash_davis 23115]

 

[Nivek 16987]

5 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

 

bottom right looks rude (1:37) 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Nivek

[TXSG8R 3362]

Been thinking about this today. Doesn’t Ukraine have a stockpile or manufacturing capability for RPGs?  They are extremely effective in urban areas. Even if you can’t punch through tank armor you can kill or suppress the hell out of the infantry, which are needed to actually secure buildings and such. Get a brave guy in one building chucking Molotovs to draw the infantry in, then bring the boom from buildings with overlapping fire on the approach. 

[MillerEP 30501]

5 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

 

Better quality:

 

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Lest we forget, they've been playing with all kinds of chemical agents over the years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_hostage_crisis_chemical_agent

 

If you are willing to place the vacuum bombs into the field, it's not a stretch to think you would deploy biologic or chemical weapons in the field either.  As tough as the Ukrainians have been, and with the amazing amount of respect earned by the Ukrainians, against this kind of stuff they stand no chance.   The level of human slaughter is going to be awful if any of these weapon systems are actually deployed.  At this point, if we have direct knowledge that any of this type of stuff is going to be deployed I hope NATO will order airstrikes preemptively.  Should NATO fail do so with direct evidence of orders, I hope we will take executive action and strike.  Putin is either playing the ultimate game of Geneva brinksmanship or he gives a fuck at the Geneva Convention and he intends to thumb his nose at it.  I highly suspect its the ladder. 

Playing NATO legal pussyfoot may well be over to be honest. For years we have played it safe, and yet here we are.  It may well be time to shock and awe on NATO terms.  The Russian calculus has never once considered that they would push us to the point of being shockingly aggressive.  Maybe its time.   

[atomheartbevo 89810]

8 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

So Ukraine elects a TV star and gets a hero.

He's a pretty well-rounded dude.  Parents were engineers (his dad in cybernetics) and he got a law degree, but decided not to practice (hits home for many on Surly amirite).

Has a great family

 

[tx 3 putt 77462]

3 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Been thinking about this today. Doesn’t Ukraine have a stockpile or manufacturing capability for RPGs?  They are extremely effective in urban areas. Even if you can’t punch through tank armor you can kill or suppress the hell out of the infantry, which are needed to actually secure buildings and such. Get a brave guy in one building chucking Molotovs to draw the infantry in, then bring the boom from buildings with overlapping fire on the approach. 

 

you get a group with rpg's and some rifle support, they can do some damage 

[atomheartbevo 89810]

4 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Been thinking about this today. Doesn’t Ukraine have a stockpile or manufacturing capability for RPGs?  They are extremely effective in urban areas. Even if you can’t punch through tank armor you can kill or suppress the hell out of the infantry, which are needed to actually secure buildings and such. Get a brave guy in one building chucking Molotovs to draw the infantry in, then bring the boom from buildings with overlapping fire on the approach. 

I got to fire an AT4, but it was the training version (reloadable), and I don't think it could do much against armor (but it was almost 30 years ago for me), but could do wonders against unarmored vehicles.

The real deals are disposable, which has some major advantages (you can book it out of an area without working about the launcher), and it was easy as hell to shoot.

Edited February 27, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[SL Xpress 7518]

25 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

 

The bullshit absolutely went both ways. While the arrangement needed to be adjusted, i think Trump was a bit heavy handed. That let to lots more bullshit on the table with ‘fuck yous’ going both ways. 

At the time the disintegration of our alliance with Germany was a huge knock against trump, but now it seems Putin has reminded everyone how fucking awful he is and lots of our world leaders and getting a wake up slap in the face. 

This is actually a very positive thing for us all

Well, to keep on target with your post, not EVERYONE seems to think he's awful.

[atomheartbevo 89810]

11 minutes ago, troph said:

conflicting reports...

I would guess that somebody told Belarus that they'll get the same economic sanctions that Russia just got hammered with, including SWIFT.

[atomheartbevo 89810]

12 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

😆

A Babylon Bee that's actually timely and funny.

[The Ace of Aces 5194]

11 minutes ago, troph said:

conflicting reports...

Lukashenko owes his entire life and career to Putin. Without him he’s a dead man. Belarus is never turning against him - they are going  down with the ship. And all I can say to them is fuck off. 

[Scheiss Meister 8413]

5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Been thinking about this today. Doesn’t Ukraine have a stockpile or manufacturing capability for RPGs?  They are extremely effective in urban areas. Even if you can’t punch through tank armor you can kill or suppress the hell out of the infantry, which are needed to actually secure buildings and such. Get a brave guy in one building chucking Molotovs to draw the infantry in, then bring the boom from buildings with overlapping fire on the approach. 

I would imagine that the Ukrainian Army has quite a store of RPG 7s.  Everyone else in the world seems to.  And if not, I bet the Russians have left some on some of those trucks they've lost, if they weren't torched.

[statsman 5484]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If you are willing to place the vacuum bombs into the field, it's not a stretch to think you would deploy biologic or chemical weapons in the field either.  As tough as the Ukrainians have been, and with the amazing amount of respect earned by the Ukrainians, against this kind of stuff they stand no chance.   The level of human slaughter is going to be awful if any of these weapon systems are actually deployed.  At this point, if we have direct knowledge that any of this type of stuff is going to be deployed I hope NATO will order airstrikes preemptively.  Should NATO fail do so with direct evidence of orders, I hope we will take executive action and strike.  Putin is either playing the ultimate game of Geneva brinksmanship or he gives a fuck at the Geneva Convention and he intends to thumb his nose at it.  I highly suspect its the ladder. 

Playing NATO legal pussyfoot may well be over to be honest. For years we have played it safe, and yet here we are.  It may well be time to shock and awe on NATO terms.  The Russian calculus has never once considered that they would push us to the point of being shockingly aggressive.  Maybe its time.   

I don’t know. JFK catches crap for Cold War foreign policy, but he did some great stuff when Khrushchev was pushing it with Berlin. My dad was posted in Germany in ‘63 (when I was born there) because he was trained on the Davy Crockett weapon system (mortar launched tactical nuke). He said that Khrushchev put out an order that no body could cross the border without a full vehicle inspection (the west routinely drive to Berlin). JFK ordered a caravan of military vehicles and troops to mass on the border, and then gave the order to drive to Berlin without stopping. Dad says that for that weekend, a US soldier couldn’t buy a drink or meal- they were all comped by the locals. 
The point of that Cold War flashback is that sometimes you just have to let your nuts hang. 

[dcar00 14375]

5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Well, to keep on target with your post, not EVERYONE seems to think he's awful.

yes everyone thinks he's awful...

[atomheartbevo 89810]

1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Where we sit tonight in terms of Russian controlled area. 
 

 

Just in terms of logistics, that's a clusterfuck from hell.  Lots of red inside of Ukraine that is not linked up in Ukraine and requires either extra support personnel and supplies for each pocket, or they have to pop in and out of Russia/Belarus to stay secure as they move between units.

That also looks like a lot of their combat troops/infantry would be spread way the hell out.

If they had 50,000 infantry, they probably have 10,000 or so in reserve, and 15,000 in the north, 15,000 in the south, and then another 5,000 in each of the eastern pockets.

That shit would be hard to take and hold cities/land and would be hell for air superiority.