Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

3 hours ago, Longhornlove said:

I do incident investigations for a living.

Great, so you check your undies after farting.  There’s a shart thread already.  
 

Stop overthinking it.  Putin’s to blame.  

[atomheartbevo 89674]

20 minutes ago, dimyh said:

So annex eastern Ukraine, decimate the western cities but leave it independent with puppet govt behind? So he fulfills the liberation of the Russian side, connects to Crimea and leaves the western side in shambles as a sign for anyone else impudent enough to ignore his next demands.

I don’t think he’ll be able to do that much.  They are spread to thin.  And I don’t think they can capture Kyiv.  I think they’ll  just destroy it.  

[atomheartbevo 89674]

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

How many people will Putin murder?

[Pods 7552]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don’t think he’ll be able to do that much.  They are spread to thin.  And I don’t think they can capture Kyiv.  I think they’ll  just destroy it.  

Agree, this is what Rubio was referring to. The only way they "take" the city by Monday is to commit wide spread, systemic war crimes and destroy it.

That happens and there is no going  back to normal for the oligarch/generals. Hope you fuckers like never leaving Russia again. Ever.

[Pods 7552]

1 minute ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

How many people will Putin murder?

As many as he thinks it takes, if no one stops him. He's Littlefinger and would burn it all down to be crowned King of the Ashes. 

[Bevo 13577]

2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

 

I know what you all are thinking but you are too late. I've already submitted the paperwork.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

1 hour ago, dimyh said:

So annex eastern Ukraine, decimate the western cities but leave it independent with puppet govt behind? So he fulfills the liberation of the Russian side, connects to Crimea and leaves the western side in shambles as a sign for anyone else impudent enough to ignore his next demands.

 

This has been my belief all along though I was surprised he even approached Kiev.

I don't believe he is going to level Kiev. He will fuck up the infrastructure something fierce and then sit there in a siege position waiting for a capitulation. Doesn't seem like it will work but there are also Ukrainian oligarchs willing to sell out Zelensky to get back to business as usual. Which is what the oligarchs in all our countries want, except for Ukraine and maybe other super-Russia-hating countries like Poland and the Baltics. 

If Putin dares pulling a full-on Grozny on Kiev in front of the entire world that would be a sign he's gone entirely mad, and we'd spiral towards a World War III I think some of y'all a) long for; and b) aren't prepared for. Or maybe that's just the Cold War Kid in me talking who spent years terrified of total thermonuclear war who now has two kids (one who could be called back into the army at their pleasure for the next six years)....Oh yeah, and I live 20 miles north of the strategic petroleum reserve. Somewhere in Siberia there's a warhead with my name on it. Also my kids. Yours too, pretty much wherever you live.

I share the glee with the reports of Ukrainian bravery and resilience but I abhor thoughts of widening this war by bringing in NATO or the USA solo because honestly I fear the consequences. All those arms flowing through and from NATO countries have already given Putin the excuse in his own mind to believe that Russia is at war with the west. This is precisely why the Germans sunk the Lusitania in World War 1 -- it carried not only passengers but also arms for the Brits.

And if he has gone nuts -- covid dementia, regular dementia, simple megalomania -- all we can do is pray that there is a lone wolf with balls of steel or a cabal in Moscow willing to take him out rather than press the button if things continue going sideways in Ukraine. 

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

LOL...Putin Making German Military Spending Great Again.

 

Scholz announces an additional 100 billion euros for the Bundeswehr

 

The Bundeswehr is to receive 100 billion euros from the federal budget via a special fund for investments and armaments projects. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) also announced in his government statement that Germany will invest more than two percent of gross domestic product in defense in the future.


Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has announced a massive increase in military spending in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine. The federal budget 2022 should be provided once with a special fund of 100 billion euros for "necessary investments and armaments projects," Scholz said in his government statement on Sunday in the Bundestag. He added: "From now on, we will invest more than two percent of gross domestic product in our defense year after year."
 

Previously, Scholz had once again sharply attacked Russia's President Vladimir Putin and described him as a "warmonger". His actions are "inhumane, contrary to international law, cannot be justified by anything or anyone." He wants to wipe an independent country off the world map, which is an "infamous violation of international law."
 

Purtin is isolated from the entire international community. Only with the emergency brake of his veto could Moscow - after all a permanent member of the Security Council - prevent its own conviction. What a shame," said Scholz, almost emotional for his circumstances.
 

Putin "created a new reality on Thursday through his invasion of Ukraine. This requires an answer - we gave it." And he justified the decision to supply weapons now: "There could be no other answer to Putin's aggression."

 

https://www.welt.de/eilmeldung/article237180045/Scholz-kuendigt-100-Milliarden-Euro-zusaetzlich-fuer-Bundeswehr-an.html

 

Edit to include interesting Scholz statement from the speech to the Bundestag: Germany must now work in coordination with France to develop advanced fighter jets for the Europeans. These should be built in Europe.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Shady Ray

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

8 hours ago, Nivek said:

This has aged so well.  

From the originator of Daily Wuhan Flu Updates to boot.

[Enchubben 5510]

I really do appreciate you updating us on the German mindset and politics behind their decision making. Interesting to follow along with the war develops. 

That said, I can’t help but think fuck Germany in their fucking German goat asses on the whole. They had to be drug kicking and screaming to this point and to the detriment of Ukraine and to the rest of the NATO nations. And for what, so they could control the EU narrative and give America a black eye?  Their energy situation, lack of national defense, and deep fear of neo nazis in Eastern Ukraine with weapons is/was their own doing. Fuck pretzels, accordions and BMW’s.

[Hammerin Hank 1227]

4 hours ago, OU Sucks said:

Other than him looking nothing like Joe Burrow, it was a pretty good joke.

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Hammerin Hank

[Shady Ray 1633]

I really do appreciate you updating us on the German mindset and politics behind their decision making. Interesting to follow along with the war develops. 
That said, I can’t help but think fuck Germany in their fucking German goat asses on the whole. They had to be drug kicking and screaming to this point and to the detriment of Ukraine and to the rest of the NATO nations. And for what, so they could control the EU narrative and give America a black eye?  Their energy situation, lack of national defense, and deep fear of neo nazis in Eastern Ukraine with weapons is/was their own doing. Fuck pretzels, accordions and BMW’s.

No problem. The self-laudatory tone in the Bundestag speeches today has been truly something to behold. As though they were true leaders every step of the way.


And thank you for not including tasty deutsches Bier in this statement. There are some lines that cannot be crossed, regardless of the poor behavior of the German government.

[Enchubben 5510]

 

 

[Hefeweizen 5323]

Just now, Shady Ray said:

No problem. The self-laudatory tone in the Bundestag speeches today has been truly something to behold. As though they were true leaders every step of the way.


And thank you for not including tasty deutsches Bier in this statement. There are some lines that cannot be crossed, regardless of the poor behavior of the German government.

 

Before you write Germany completely off; they have seen the light (finally) and this change isn't going to undo itself.  NS2 is dead, Germany is turning westward on energy, and I suspect there will eventually even be a reckoning on nuclear power.  Basically they misread Russia completely because they projected their mercantilism onto the Russian re: energy sales.  It was a nice fantasy while it lasted.

 

I listened to a Tagesschau interview with Merz which couldn't have been clearer on Friday evening.  This fuckup by Putin, showing everyone what he is (most of us already knew), changed everything.

[Hefeweizen 5323]

Exhibit 2:

 

 

They are doing what NATO has been begging them to for years.  This is a complete change and departure from past policy - and this is the formerly Russian leaning side of the German government!

[Hefeweizen 5323]

One more interesting tweet suggesting the conflict is intensifying:

 

 

 

This Lukashenko asshole seems like he sucks.

[Shady Ray 1633]

6 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Exhibit 2:

 

 

They are doing what NATO has been begging them to for years.  This is a complete change and departure from past policy - and this is the formerly Russian leaning side of the German government!

Yep. And the heavyhandedness of an extensive, Ukraine-wide attack is what did it. Had he kept it to the Donbass, the Germans would have been very unlikely to go this far. But this was just too much and way too visible in social media for them to take half-steps.

 

And, given his statements re European defense production that I mentioned above, it is going to be really interesting to watch German defense industry. With this announcement, Germany will now have the largest military budget in Europe and they are going to expect to spend as much as possible of that here.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Hefeweizen 5323]

Spass muss sein, sprach Wallenstein, und schoss damit die Eier hinein!

 

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17682]

So those IL-76 claimed kills? Did they happen or was that just wishful thinking?

[DigglerontheHoof 21200]

CNN just mentioned that Chelsea's owner, Abramovich, is giving stewardship of the team to its "charitable foundation" (whatever that means).  Why can't the league just tell him to get fucked and take the team from him and sell it to someone else?

[Hefeweizen 5323]

1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

CNN just mentioned that Chelsea's owner, Abramovich, is giving stewardship of the team to its "charitable foundation" (whatever that means).  Why can't the league just tell him to get fucked and take the team from him and sell it to someone else?

That's why he moved its ownership.  So it won't be seized.  Because that is coming for the oligarchs now.  Until they grease the right palms (if they can get to them with their armies of lobbyists).

[Shady Ray 1633]

Perhaps it is just me, but good, informative up-to-date maps in this thing have been more difficult to find than I would have imagined.

 

Here is a good one to serve as reference as y'all start y'alls days.

 

Curious what the status within Kherson proper is...looks like they are now to Mykolayiv, and there have been reports of operations in and oround Odesa. I think cutting off the UA in a kessel in the East looks to be far too ambitious, so I would imagine his immediate plans are to try to salvage this fiasco to some degree by taking the entirety of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. But you military dudes know more about how feasible that is than I do.

 

 

 

[Hefeweizen 5323]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

Perhaps it is just me, but good, informative up-to-date maps in this thing have been more difficult to find than I would have imagined.

 

Here is a good one to serve as reference as y'all start y'alls days.

 

Curious what the status within Kherson proper is...looks like they are now to Mykolayiv, and there have been reports of operations in and oround Odesa. I think cutting off the UA in a kessel in the East looks to be far too ambitious, so I would imagine his immediate plans are to try to salvage this fiasco to some degree by taking the entirety of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast. But you military dudes know more about how feasible that is than I do.

 

 

 

The immediate tactical objective is Mariupol to secure the land bridge.  The next objective is to hold Kherson and Mykolaiv to ensure a permanent hold across the Dniepr.  My guess is if he secures the land bridge he'll take the L in the north and agree to peace talks.

Frankly I can't figure out if that is something Ukraine can or will live with.  It creates yet another endless friction point which will be in perpetual war status, and emboldens Putin once again to think he can bite off smaller chunks at a time.

Strategically this whole war plan appears to have been to split Ukraine down the Dniepr but it's looking pretty unlikely to happen.

 

Great map - it shows extents of advances but not necessarily control.

[Parliament 14260]

28 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Spass muss sein, sprach Wallenstein, und schoss damit die Eier hinein!

 

 

 

Took them long enough, but it's good to see Germany finally side with the winners.  They stand a good chance improve thier world War record to 1-2.

[SL Xpress 7515]

So help me out here. Let’s hypothetically remove economics and the infrastructure to support the war from the equation. That’s not fair, and we all know it, but hear me out. 
 

Why would Russia settle for any part of Ukraine to remain independent? I realize all of us, including me, perceive the Russian military as a lot more incompetent than we thought going into this thing, but it’s still only 4 days into the invasion. If he allows Ukraine independence, there’s going to be an outpouring of support in terms of military financial aid, and the tilt towards the West is going to be irreversible. Which is Putin’s worst nightmare both strategically, and emotionally. He will consider it a defeat, and a huge blow to his legacy. 
 

That said, if he does start peace talks where he agrees to a halt of the advance to Dneiper or anywhere east of there, part of the calculation will be economic. He simply doesn’t have the infrastructure to prosecute the war effectively over anything resembling a long term. That, or it’s politically untenable in some other way, or there’s a combination of factors. 
 

If that’s the case, other than creating an immediate end to the bloodshed, what would be Ukraine’s incentive to capitulate? All the people who have fought so bravely for a united Ukraine in the east - where Zelensky is from and drew a huge amount of his 73% support in his presidential election victory - will feel abandoned by Ukraine’s leadership. 
 

The best case scenario for Putin would be a withdrawal to Crimea and having an “independent” Donbas run by stooges. But I think that’s the most Ukraine would agree to. 

And that’s assuming Putin would agree to do anything. 

My guess is he’s going to yolo this thing until he’s stripped of power. All or nothing. And I don’t foresee Ukraine having any appetite for giving away a significant part of their country in return for peace. That doesn’t seem to me to be how these guys roll. I feel like speculation of this sort is viewing this as a board game, without understanding the dynamics driving the conflict. JMO. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

The removal of some Russian banks from SWIFT seems off to me. Western govts were under pressure so they agreed to act but doesn’t this just create some temporary obstacles that can be bypassed within a couple of days?

russian odds of near term victory increase with every sanction gap.

 

[Auto Driller 2505]

16 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

So help me out here. Let’s hypothetically remove economics and the infrastructure to support the war from the equation. That’s not fair, and we all know it, but hear me out. 
 

Why would Russia settle for any part of Ukraine to remain independent? I realize all of us, including me, perceive the Russian military as a lot more incompetent than we thought going into this thing, but it’s still only 4 days into the invasion. If he allows Ukraine independence, there’s going to be an outpouring of support in terms of military financial aid, and the tilt towards the West is going to be irreversible. Which is Putin’s worst nightmare both strategically, and emotionally. He will consider it a defeat, and a huge blow to his legacy. 
 

That said, if he does start peace talks where he agrees to a halt of the advance to Dneiper or anywhere east of there, part of the calculation will be economic. He simply doesn’t have the infrastructure to prosecute the war effectively over anything resembling a long term. That, or it’s politically untenable in some other way, or there’s a combination of factors. 
 

If that’s the case, other than creating an immediate end to the bloodshed, what would be Ukraine’s incentive to capitulate? All the people who have fought so bravely for a united Ukraine in the east - where Zelensky is from and drew a huge amount of his 73% support in his presidential election victory - will feel abandoned by Ukraine’s leadership. 
 

The best case scenario for Putin would be a withdrawal to Crimea and having an “independent” Donbas run by stooges. But I think that’s the most Ukraine would agree to. 

And that’s assuming Putin would agree to do anything. 

My guess is he’s going to yolo this thing until he’s stripped of power. All or nothing. And I don’t foresee Ukraine having any appetite for giving away a significant part of their country in return for peace. That doesn’t seem to me to be how these guys roll. I feel like speculation of this sort is viewing this as a board game, without understanding the dynamics driving the conflict. JMO. 

The outpouring of support and western tilt have already happened. There’s no going back there. I think that Putin and his generals are going to find a way to “declare victory” by taking a small slice of southern/eastern Ukraine and claiming that was the objective all along. But the world knows they wanted the whole pie so it will be widely viewed as a humiliating defeat.

One thing that’s important is that the impact of sanctions are going to make it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for them to replace all of this smoldering military equipment we see posted on twitter. Already they are sending 1980s-era tanks from eastern-based units. At a certain point they can’t continue to prosecute this war without materially weakening their actual self-defense needs. A javelin costs less and is much easier to replace than a tank/APC/helicopter. We’re pretty much following the Soviet/Afghan war plan and they’re no better prepared to handle it than they were last time.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

I’m struck by how little credence you can place on ANY info right now…”unconfirmed reports out of…”

I’d wager less than 10% of everything being passed around as truth has any merit to it.

[Bevo 13577]

22 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

So help me out here. Let’s hypothetically remove economics and the infrastructure to support the war from the equation. That’s not fair, and we all know it, but hear me out. 
 

Why would Russia settle for any part of Ukraine to remain independent? I realize all of us, including me, perceive the Russian military as a lot more incompetent than we thought going into this thing, but it’s still only 4 days into the invasion. If he allows Ukraine independence, there’s going to be an outpouring of support in terms of military financial aid, and the tilt towards the West is going to be irreversible. Which is Putin’s worst nightmare both strategically, and emotionally. He will consider it a defeat, and a huge blow to his legacy. 
 

That said, if he does start peace talks where he agrees to a halt of the advance to Dneiper or anywhere east of there, part of the calculation will be economic. He simply doesn’t have the infrastructure to prosecute the war effectively over anything resembling a long term. That, or it’s politically untenable in some other way, or there’s a combination of factors. 
 

If that’s the case, other than creating an immediate end to the bloodshed, what would be Ukraine’s incentive to capitulate? All the people who have fought so bravely for a united Ukraine in the east - where Zelensky is from and drew a huge amount of his 73% support in his presidential election victory - will feel abandoned by Ukraine’s leadership. 
 

The best case scenario for Putin would be a withdrawal to Crimea and having an “independent” Donbas run by stooges. But I think that’s the most Ukraine would agree to. 

And that’s assuming Putin would agree to do anything. 

My guess is he’s going to yolo this thing until he’s stripped of power. All or nothing. And I don’t foresee Ukraine having any appetite for giving away a significant part of their country in return for peace. That doesn’t seem to me to be how these guys roll. I feel like speculation of this sort is viewing this as a board game, without understanding the dynamics driving the conflict. JMO. 

If the Ukraine can get a cease fire, Russia is in for a world of hurt. I assume there are an incredible amount of weapons sitting at the border in Slovakia and Poland. That pause will allow those weapons to flow quickly into the Ukraine so it can refortify.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4740]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Spass muss sein, sprach Wallenstein, und schoss damit die Eier hinein!

 

 

 

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The removal of some Russian banks from SWIFT seems off to me. Western govts were under pressure so they agreed to act but doesn’t this just create some temporary obstacles that can be bypassed within a couple of days?

russian odds of near term victory increase with every sanction gap.

 

Yeah. It's a significant gap. That was the deal for German approval (but also quietly for the US, which needs it to pay for a bunch of oil that from what I understand it will still import from Russia). Germany said it wouldn't do SWIFT removal if they couldn't still directly pay for Russian gas, so they carved out the banks that were required to that end. 

 

Or in the words of Baerbock today, 12:08 p.m. "The exclusion of Russia on SWIFT has been designed to hit putin and not fall back on us like a boomerang."

Edited February 27, 2022 by Shady Ray

[TXSG8R 3362]

7 hours ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

I don’t understand the thermobaric weapon freak out. Which news station is pushing this? We use thermobaric weapons too. The TOS-1 is just a suped up MLRS designed to bunker bust and clear trenches more effectively. As it defeats otherwise hardened targets by oxygen depletion. Russia tested one that was damn near nuke powerful but that isn’t a TOS-1. I don’t get it. It isn’t any more scary than many Russian weapons. 

I think some news agencies are taking the flamethrower name to its hyper conclusion.  It’s a devastating weapon, but so is a regular MLRS, and Russians have been throwing those at the Ukrainians since day one. 

[Goofyboy 3293]

From what I’ve been reading the Central Bank stuff hits him harder. He doesn’t / won’t have access to the $650 billion or so he has there. Is that still accurate?

[Parliament 14260]

I believe that's accurate.  He can't access that money.

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

 

[Bevo 13577]

1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

8 hours ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

I don’t understand the thermobaric weapon freak out. Which news station is pushing this? We use thermobaric weapons too. The TOS-1 is just a suped up MLRS designed to bunker bust and clear trenches more effectively. As it defeats otherwise hardened targets by oxygen depletion. Russia tested one that was damn near nuke powerful but that isn’t a TOS-1. I don’t get it. It isn’t any more scary than many Russian weapons. 

I think some news agencies are taking the flamethrower name to its hyper conclusion.  It’s a devastating weapon, but so is a regular MLRS, and Russians have been throwing those at the Ukrainians since day one. 

The only use for it in this war is in the cities. The first time it is targeted on civilians and caught on tape will be the first time in the mind of many that Russia has crossed a line in the sand, that it has gone a bridge too far. What happens from there is anyone's guess.

[SL Xpress 7515]

4 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

The outpouring of support and western tilt have already happened. There’s no going back there. I think that Putin and his generals are going to find a way to “declare victory” by taking a small slice of southern/eastern Ukraine and claiming that was the objective all along. But the world knows they wanted the whole pie so it will be widely viewed as a humiliating defeat.

One thing that’s important is that the impact of sanctions are going to make it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for them to replace all of this smoldering military equipment we see posted on twitter. Already they are sending 1980s-era tanks from eastern-based units. At a certain point they can’t continue to prosecute this war without materially weakening their actual self-defense needs. A javelin costs less and is much easier to replace than a tank/APC/helicopter. We’re pretty much following the Soviet/Afghan war plan and they’re no better prepared to handle it than they were last time.

That’s a hopeful view I just don’t share. I do not believe he’ll stop this until he’s given no choice, possibly of the 6 feet under variety. 

There’s been a continuous miscalculation of how important this is to him, and I believe your post is another manifestation of it. He’s going to continue to try to topple the government and create his own. As far as “no going back there” if there’s anything history has taught Putin, including recent history regarding places like Ukraine during Euromaidan, Syria during Arab Spring, Belarus over the past couple of years, and even his own country, (but certainly not limited to these!) is that the answer to an outpouring of opposition is violent suppression. And to paraphrase the old joke about the repairman with only one tool, if that doesn’t work, you just violently suppress harder.   

And that’s not even taking into account the Ukrainian side. How small of a sliver of southern/eastern Ukraine are you talking about? Because to me it’s quite clear the Ukrainian leadership isn’t ready to give up anything. I’m not even sure they’d be willing to accept Russia in Crimea if Putin wanted peace right now, simply because it would show how weak he is. 

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

 

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

That Russia couldn’t take Kharkiv is still stunning after watching vehicle after vehicle and tank after tank move through Belgorad. 

[Constant 6732]

 

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

 

[Constant 6732]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

What a stupid fuck. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Take Kyiv, tell his people he has Kyiv, try to get Ukraine to the table to negotiate, and bullshit his people into thinking that he can make the sanctions go away, just give him some time?

That's the thing, even if he does overwhelm Ukraine and installs his puppet government; the sanctions ain't going away.  Hell, they may get even tougher if that's possible.

Russia could wind up like North Korea at some point.

[Nicole44 22060]

I just woke up and had some sex! Phenomenal sex! What has happened in the last few hours? My mind is mush like always and would appreciate a quick update from y’all. I consider most of you my peeps. 

[Bookman 4639]

24 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

At a certain point they can’t continue to prosecute this war without materially weakening their actual self-defense needs. A javelin costs less and is much easier to replace than a tank/APC/helicopter. We’re pretty much following the Soviet/Afghan war plan and they’re no better prepared to handle it than they were last time.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10554269/Ukraine-DESTROYS-Russian-convoy-Zelenskys-troops-derail-Kremlin-push-Kyiv.html

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

7 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Relatively quiet night? Or just no news? It's 8 am in Kyiv 

I'm interested in how long adherence to turning phones off lasts.

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

Lots more chatter from the Ukrainian side about peace talks 

[SL Xpress 7515]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

Now this is a crock of shit. There is no way he’s firing off nukes on western countries for sanctions. It’s posturing. I could see him doing it on some level if Western countries crossed the border into Ukraine. 
 

It’s also a sign of things going very wrong for him in this conflict. 

[Chad Fuck 17682]

 

These Ukrainians are just kick ass all the way around. No fucks given.