Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

So some early morning Monday thoughts on some of the developments in Europe as it has been a fairly astonishing weekend on that front.  Will look forward to @Shady Ray and his thought.

1.  German chancellor Scholz' announcement that Germany was going to spend 2 percent on defense starting like, NOW, is one of the more earthshattering pronouncements in European politics that I can remember.  Something else that got somewhat lost-- he also admitted that a nuclear deterrent is required to defend Europe. A SOCIAL DEMOCRAT said that.  This is something the Germans would quietly admit to us but would dance around with their public.  Do not take that to mean that Germany will build their own deterrent.  NATO is a nuclear alliance and even within the EU itself, France possesses a deterrent.  But what I would read into that is two things-- first, that we can now begin to discuss seriously a European defense policy funded mostly by Germany with France (and to a lesser extent German) firms becoming the big winners.  Second, NATO is not going anywhere for a long, long time.  It is highly unlikely that Europe would feel 'OK' with only France as their umbrella.  The other two big nuclear powers-- the Brits and us-- are not in the EU and all the other EU nations are signatories to the non-proliferation treaty.  That will not be broken.  So if this holds, what I think you will see is something that successive U.S. administrations have wanted for some time-- a Europe more capable of taking on responsibility for its defense conventionally but explicitly married to NATO and the U.S. as a strategic partner.  There will be some bumps along the way, for sure, but this is a positive development.  In the short to medium term, you will see more of the U.S. in Europe, particularly on the eastern flank, as those nations want our tech and our capabilities, which is something the EU minus Britain simply doesn't have right now.

2. I want to talk about what is happening to Putin's carefully curated network of influence and information warfare in Europe.  We are watching it get dismantled as I type this.  The EU announced that two sources of Russian state propaganda directed at the external world-- Russia Today (TV) and Sputnik (online/print)-- are now not allowed to operate within the EU.  At the state level, governments are beginning to unplug the network of daughter and cousin outlets that serve as amplifiers for those outlets-- I mentioned that the Czech Republic, for instance, killed twenty-two of them.  In Slovakia, the national authorities are announcing that spreading support for the war and Putin's propaganda will be criminalized under the same statutes that made it illegal to praise or support Nazism or the Soviet Union after 1989-- they were written to outlet the "advocation of totalitarian regimes."  On the financial and economic front, the sanctions are sweeping and unlike previous rounds, every indication is that a key difference will be in enforcement-- states will look to enforce and sanctioned entities will have to struggle to find workarounds. In previous versions, the states put them on the books but for the most part tried to apply them as liberally as possible.  The EU is closing itself to Russian airplanes.  Massive companies like BP are getting out AHEAD of sanctions by divesting in Russian holdings because they understand the headwinds of public opinion and potential legal actions against them.  Look for Russian companies to be excluded from upcoming nuclear tenders in the EU space, where believe it or not ROSATOM was a favored partner for new plants. Putin's "friends" in the EU are now on the total defensive and making their arguments quietly because they don't dare to speak up publicly. I could go on and on about this but the bottom line is that Russia has turned itself into a pariah state that for the time being has defenders kind of like Venezuela or Iran have defenders. They exist but are going to keep their heads down for a long time. 

This is important especially because as the world came out of COVID, it wasn't just the United States that had irresponsible populism gaining ground. Putin and Russia have blown their chance at influencing those movements openly and the movements themselves will have to do a huge tap dance around the "Russia" question. 

3. On the flip side, Putin did something no U.S. president since GHWB during Desert Storm has managed to do-- turn the United States into the good guys.  With almost every single warning from the U.S. proving accurate and with the U.S. speaking clearly and with sober restraint about what we can do to stop it, U.S. leadership in Europe is looking pretty damn good for the time being.  Some of the signs about this are in how the EU is acting-- all of these earthshattering moves, some of them outrunning the pace of the United States, are coming without any recent from the United States urging them to do it  It's just happening.  It is a good sign when an Alliance leader doesn't have to poke and prod recalcitrant members to do stuff.  This is a tremendous window of opportunity and we need to behave with what I would call "firm restraint." We need to decide what is core for us and not budge, we need to let Europeans get to the decisions we want them to make on their own, and we need to not push our gains to the point that we look craven and opportunistic.  It's basically all on us now. 

I could keep going but I don't want too go more longcat here in a thread that moves so rapidly.  And the situation changes hourly.  Slava Ukraini!

[Stunns38 3,460]

This video is a little long but does a good layman job of explaining the fall of the U.S.S.R. and if you read in between the lines, Putin’s motivation.

[MissingInAction 25,036]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Yeah I was going to respond to this as the Panhandle is one of the places you do NOT want to be should the shit hit the fan. I'm keeping my ass in Austin.

We're only an hour from Ft Hood, so we will be the lucky ones getting turned to dust in the first seconds.

Edited February 28, 2022 by MissingInAction

[PTINS 3,467]

9 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East 
Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East
EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East
US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME)
Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN.  
Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? 
This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?  

I think everyone will be buying gas and oil from Russia quicker than anyone thinks but eventually at lower volumes. It takes too long to build out infrastructure systems to alleviate near ten shortage and in the long run the world is investing in alternative sources.

I agree the Russian oil has to be brought to the market, but it will be complicated. Will the existing sanctions morph and oil $$$ funneled through some entity (UN, Nato, G7, ???) so the $$$ does not go back into the same existing corrupt Russian system?  Russia will owe Ukraine and others (reimburse NATO and others for support given to Ukraine) war reparations for this shit show and may end up looking like Ukraine was in the 90's, a dysfunctional, corrupt, 3rd rate power, with thousands of nukes and immense natural resources. 

What happens to Russia post Putin? Depends on how Putin "leaves"? What then? Same ol' same ol? No Way! Civil War? Power vacumn? I don't think simply replacing Putin will work for the non-billionaires.  Cannot have disarray and a free for all like Iraq with Russia's nuclear arsenal, and the fact they are the 2rd largest producer of oil & gas in the world. Blink your eyes and China will be in Western Russia before you can blink again. A strong Russia was bad, a defanged Russia may be worse.

  

[PTINS 3,467]

35 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Everyone smarter than me post on this one (everyone that doesn’t have me on ignore raise your hand): if Belarus is technically it’s own country (not sure about that) but they send in their forces can’t we or NATO technically do the same? Or is that not within the rules? I admit I don’t ducking know. Can we? I know this isn’t an option any of us would prefer. 

Not sure if I qualify; Belarus doesn't have a thousand nukes. Fuck ' em! Hit 'em with a few stealth laser guided bombs and let them figure out where they came from.

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

26 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Belarus was Byelorussia or White Russia.  It's Russia in everything but name.

We and NATO countries can do whatever we want independently.  The significance of NATO is that if a NATO country is attacked by a non-NATO country, the rest of NATO is obliged to assist in its defense.

The track of Belarus has been a fascinating one.  To sum up-- 2014 scared the fuck out of Lukashenka.  He is not a natural ally to Putin and the annexation of Crimea was followed by real progress in his ties with the West.  For instance, the U.S. Embassy there had the cap on the number of personnel raised (it had been at five total Americans) and he allowed actual public diplomacy programs.  It was still rocky and cautious and he had to balance with Putin but it seemed as though the union project with Russia was on ice and he was going to try and drift away slowly. 

The 2020-2021 elections and mass protests totally undid every bit of that.  He firmly believed it was a U.S./Western attempt to rerun Maidan and came to the conclusion that only Putin could keep him from having to run out of Minsk like Yanukovych from Kyiv.  And if you look at how Putin has exploited that need, it is more along the lines of the "Putin as master strategist" that we began to believe in.  He pressed every advantage and basically annexed Belarus in all but name. That said, neither Belarusian or even Lukashenka can be said to be "happy" about this and if something happened to Putin something would very rapidly happen in Belarus.  Lukashenka would be either toppled or he'd run as fast as he could to put space between himself and Russia while cracking down internally. 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So some early morning Monday thoughts on some of the developments in Europe as it has been a fairly astonishing weekend on that front.  Will look forward to @Shady Ray and his thought.

1.  German chancellor Scholz' announcement that Germany was going to spend 2 percent on defense starting like, NOW, is one of the more earthshattering pronouncements in European politics that I can remember.  Something else that got somewhat lost-- he also admitted that a nuclear deterrent is required to defend Europe. A SOCIAL DEMOCRAT said that.  This is something the Germans would quietly admit to us but would dance around with their public.  Do not take that to mean that Germany will build their own deterrent.  NATO is a nuclear alliance and even within the EU itself, France possesses a deterrent.  But what I would read into that is two things-- first, that we can now begin to discuss seriously a European defense policy funded mostly by Germany with France (and to a lesser extent German) firms becoming the big winners.  Second, NATO is not going anywhere for a long, long time.  It is highly unlikely that Europe would feel 'OK' with only France as their umbrella.  The other two big nuclear powers-- the Brits and us-- are not in the EU and all the other EU nations are signatories to the non-proliferation treaty.  That will not be broken.  So if this holds, what I think you will see is something that successive U.S. administrations have wanted for some time-- a Europe more capable of taking on responsibility for its defense conventionally but explicitly married to NATO and the U.S. as a strategic partner.  There will be some bumps along the way, for sure, but this is a positive development.  In the short to medium term, you will see more of the U.S. in Europe, particularly on the eastern flank, as those nations want our tech and our capabilities, which is something the EU minus Britain simply doesn't have right now.

2. I want to talk about what is happening to Putin's carefully curated network of influence and information warfare in Europe.  We are watching it get dismantled as I type this.  The EU announced that two sources of Russian state propaganda directed at the external world-- Russia Today (TV) and Sputnik (online/print)-- are now not allowed to operate within the EU.  At the state level, governments are beginning to unplug the network of daughter and cousin outlets that serve as amplifiers for those outlets-- I mentioned that the Czech Republic, for instance, killed twenty-two of them.  In Slovakia, the national authorities are announcing that spreading support for the war and Putin's propaganda will be criminalized under the same statutes that made it illegal to praise or support Nazism or the Soviet Union after 1989-- they were written to outlet the "advocation of totalitarian regimes."  On the financial and economic front, the sanctions are sweeping and unlike previous rounds, every indication is that a key difference will be in enforcement-- states will look to enforce and sanctioned entities will have to struggle to find workarounds. In previous versions, the states put them on the books but for the most part tried to apply them as liberally as possible.  The EU is closing itself to Russian airplanes.  Massive companies like BP are getting out AHEAD of sanctions by divesting in Russian holdings because they understand the headwinds of public opinion and potential legal actions against them.  Look for Russian companies to be excluded from upcoming nuclear tenders in the EU space, where believe it or not ROSATOM was a favored partner for new plants. Putin's "friends" in the EU are now on the total defensive and making their arguments quietly because they don't dare to speak up publicly. I could go on and on about this but the bottom line is that Russia has turned itself into a pariah state that for the time being has defenders kind of like Venezuela or Iran have defenders. They exist but are going to keep their heads down for a long time. 

This is important especially because as the world came out of COVID, it wasn't just the United States that had irresponsible populism gaining ground. Putin and Russia have blown their chance at influencing those movements openly and the movements themselves will have to do a huge tap dance around the "Russia" question. 

3. On the flip side, Putin did something no U.S. president since GHWB during Desert Storm has managed to do-- turn the United States into the good guys.  With almost every single warning from the U.S. proving accurate and with the U.S. speaking clearly and with sober restraint about what we can do to stop it, U.S. leadership in Europe is looking pretty damn good for the time being.  Some of the signs about this are in how the EU is acting-- all of these earthshattering moves, some of them outrunning the pace of the United States, are coming without any recent from the United States urging them to do it  It's just happening.  It is a good sign when an Alliance leader doesn't have to poke and prod recalcitrant members to do stuff.  This is a tremendous window of opportunity and we need to behave with what I would call "firm restraint." We need to decide what is core for us and not budge, we need to let Europeans get to the decisions we want them to make on their own, and we need to not push our gains to the point that we look craven and opportunistic.  It's basically all on us now. 

I could keep going but I don't want too go more longcat here in a thread that moves so rapidly.  And the situation changes hourly.  Slava Ukraini!

And even though NATO is an alliance with nuclear weapons.  They treat their nuclear arsenals and deployments completely separate.  Sort of a dis trust even within the alliance.  It has caused issues before.  It wasn't but a few years ago a Brit and a French ssbn ran into each other because neither had any idea the other was in the area.  They didn't know until it was an after action report months later.

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think if a NATO country came in, Russia might FAFO, but it could be a non-NATO country like Israel that could come in fighting on the side of Ukraine and once the balance is drastically tipped, Putin gonna Putin and escalate to deescalate.

Israel is gonna Israel.  They are not, repeat, NOT going to do something like that and blow up relations with a nuclear-armed country that has deep ties with their intelligence services and that is currently hyper-active in Syria.  No way, no how.  There's a reason Israel has been floated as a possible site for peace talks, they are gonna walk a tightrope. Precisely because they are not NATO, they can't take sides. 

[Nicole44 22,059]

Fuck the UN. I mean fuck them for allowing the platform of Russia to spew their bullshit.

Leo Getz : The United Nations fuck you at the worst time okay? They fuck you at every turn! They know you're gonna be miles away before you find out you got fucked! They know you're not gonna turn around and go back, they don't care. So who gets fucked? The countries holding up the fucking planet! Okay, sure! I don't give a fuck! I'm not eating their bullshit, okay?

Roger Murtaugh , Martin Riggs : Shut up!

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

9 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

And even though NATO is an alliance with nuclear weapons.  They treat their nuclear arsenals and deployments completely separate.  Sort of a dis trust even within the alliance.  It has caused issues before.  It wasn't but a few years ago a Brit and a French ssbn ran into each other because neither had any idea the other was in the area.  They didn't know until it was an after action report months later.

The Brits also only have their seaborne force-- one leg of the trident.  The French maintain nuclear capable strike fighters as well.  For both those countries, nuclear weapons are the crown jewels even more than us and its fair to wonder if they would ever be used for anything other than homeland defense-- which is why the U.S. umbrella in NATO remains indispensable. 

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Israel is gonna Israel.  They are not, repeat, NOT going to do something like that and blow up relations with a nuclear-armed country that has deep ties with their intelligence services and that is currently hyper-active in Syria.  No way, no how.  There's a reason Israel has been floated as a possible site for peace talks, they are gonna walk a tightrope. Precisely because they are not NATO, they can't take sides. 

I'm just saying that if a third party came in to help and Ukraine really started pushing Russia's shit in, that Putin would escalate.

[Nicole44 22,059]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Israel is gonna Israel.  They are not, repeat, NOT going to do something like that and blow up relations with a nuclear-armed country that has deep ties with their intelligence services and that is currently hyper-active in Syria.  No way, no how.  There's a reason Israel has been floated as a possible site for peace talks, they are gonna walk a tightrope. Precisely because they are not NATO, they can't take sides. 

I am still looking for the fucking link but they have sent in specialists. Part of the issue of hunting down a Twitter feed that is on steroids is a lot is not in English and I do follow some Israeli stuff being part Jewish but they absolutely have sent in Sayeret Matkal. Just like those ten NATO British and US guys that joined the foreign fighters deal that Zelenskyy as asking to have happen. 

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

Ukrainian Defense Ministry saying that Russia's advance on Kyiv has been slowed down.

I can believe that, since we didn't see evidence of them shelling the city with conventional artillery (the Russians should have plenty of arty in those units moving there).

Also saying there's 5,300 dead Russians, 29 planes, 29 helicopters, 151 tanks.

I can believe half those numbers.  Would like to be proven wrong.  Russians lost 9,500 in combat in Afghanistan, but as many have pointed out, they are way undermanned here, and the fighting is on a much bigger (and more prolonged) scale than in Afghanistan, and the Ukrainians are much better armed from the get-go.

 

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

The sanctions on the Russian economy are going to be like nothing we have seen.  We're looking at a complete financial collapse for even ordinary Russians that makes 1998 look like just a bump in the road.  Say "1998" to a Russian and watch them shiver.  Imagine waking up one day and seeing that your savings have been cut by at least half, then imagine that your "savings" are those of a Russian civil servant. 

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

The Russian finance ministry is forcing companies to sell 80 percent of their foreign currency holdings as they try to stop the ruble from crashing, trade on the Moscow board won't open till 1500 in Moscow (we will see if that happens).

Seriously, 1998.  Lots of Russians point to 1998 as the date that Russia was "really" founded after the collapse of the USSR. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

So who plays the role of Long Term Capital Management this go round?

[FartingMonk 3,606]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm just saying that if a third party came in to help and Ukraine really started pushing Russia's shit in, that Putin would escalate.

I would divide that number by half and then divide it by another half.  The Ukranians have been pretty good at.propaganda so far. They would definitely hype up that in pictures and video.  If they downed 29 helicopters we would see video of 29 downed helos.  If there was 5900 killed we would see it.  It would be broadcasted.  These are folk hero numbers.  

 

3rd party intervention is impossible.  They would need permission to cross.  No one is going to give permission to fly into Ukraine with combat troops.  That means you have joined the war.  No chance.  

 

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukrainian Defense Ministry saying that Russia's advance on Kyiv has been slowed down.

I can believe that, since we didn't see evidence of them shelling the city with conventional artillery (the Russians should have plenty of arty in those units moving there).

Also saying there's 5,300 dead Russians, 29 planes, 29 helicopters, 151 tanks.

I can believe half those numbers.  Would like to be proven wrong.  Russians lost 9,500 in combat in Afghanistan, but as many have pointed out, they are way undermanned here, and the fighting is on a much bigger (and more prolonged) scale than in Afghanistan, and the Ukrainians are much better armed from the get-go.

 

 

[elfenix 34,230]

finally caught up and now time for bed and there'll be 10 more pages by the time i wake up

[Nicole44 22,059]

From what I gather from Rubio’s texts aimed at galvanizing the few people in Putin’s inner circle to act: if he’s way off the reservation mentally is it Syphilis or brain tumor or dementia or what? Assuming it’s true and not propaganda. I’m guessing because so many people who’ve studied him have said he’s acting completely out of character even for a classic narcissistic bully so…

[FartingMonk 3,606]

Now I do think the allowance of foreign fighters is a smart move.  It might be cover for the guys in the background to come in.  Mercenaries with ties to the govt, the spook agencies, and other elements.  If they are captured or killed you can disavow any time to them.  They were contractors.  

[Nicole44 22,059]

7 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Now I do think the allowance of foreign fighters is a smart move.  It might be cover for the guys in the background to come in.  Mercenaries with ties to the govt, the spook agencies, and other elements.  If they are captured or killed you can disavow any time to them.  They were contractors.  

Ukraine is so on point with their messaging etc..even asking for the foreign fighter coalition that I have to believe help is happening on all fronts. 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

Ukraine is so on point with their messaging etc..even asking for the foreign fighter coalition that I have to believe help is happening on all fronts. 

It's almost like it is too perfect....

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

Seeing some news that the Ukraine-Russia negotiations will start within the hour near the border in Belarus.  The leader of the Russian delegation is Vladimir Medinsky-- a former culture minister.  You can read up about him here.  Shouldn't need to be said-- a former culture minister is not serious and not empowered to do anything but hand over a note.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Medinsky

Also, some clarity over the use of conscripts is leaking out in Russian opposition media.  The kids were sent on training exercises to Belarus or the border.  Shortly before they are deployed, they are presented with a "contract" that is filled out for them and told to sign. If they object, they are warned that they will have to be investigated for disloyalty to the Russian state. A lot of paper shuffling to get around the law that says you can't deploy conscripts abroad.  And a good place to start in understanding the morale and resilience of the forces on the ground. 

This might sound like a lot of bother for a state that abuses whomever it wants,  but if you know anything about Soviet history this is exactly in keeping.  There needed to be some form of legal document for every bullet that went into the back of a head under Stalin.  The Soviet and now Russian state loves what it calls the "rule of law".  It is almost the inverse of how we in the West understand the rule of law.  The law is not an impartial arbiter, or something that everyone is equally subject to.  Rather, the law is weaponized and turned into a tool of "rule." 

Edited February 28, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[RPM 26,318]

Russian Central Bank just raised interest rate to 20%

[Nicole44 22,059]

Forgive me the site but I’m flipping between 4 channels. 
CNN, BBC, MSNBC, Fox New and will be HLN when they show up to the party.

 

[Nicole44 22,059]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Seeing some news that the Ukraine-Russia negotiations will start within the hour near the border in Belarus.  The leader of the Russian delegation is Vladimir Medinsky-- a former culture minister.  You can read up about him here.  Shouldn't need to be said-- a former culture minister is not serious and not empowered to do anything but hand over a note.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Medinsky

Also, some clarity over the use of conscripts is leaking out in Russian opposition media.  The kids were sent on training exercises to Belarus or the border.  Shortly before they are deployed, they are presented with a "contract" that is filled out for them and told to sign. If they object, they are warned that they will have to be investigated for disloyalty to the Russian state. A lot of paper shuffling to get around the law that says you can't deploy conscripts abroad.  And a good place to start in understanding the morale and resilience of the forces on the ground. 

This might sound like a lot of bother for a state that abuses whomever it wants,  but if you know anything about Soviet history this is exactly in keeping.  There needed to be some form of legal document for every bullet that went into the back of a head under Stalin.  The Soviet and now Russian state loves what it calls the "rule of law".  It is almost the inverse of how we in the West understand the rule of law.  The law is not an impartial arbiter, or something that everyone is equally subject to.  Rather, the law is weaponized and turned into a tool of "rule." 

Do you think Zelenskyy will go? This is so bad on too many levels. 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Seeing some news that the Ukraine-Russia negotiations will start within the hour near the border in Belarus.  The leader of the Russian delegation is Vladimir Medinsky-- a former culture minister.  You can read up about him here.  Shouldn't need to be said-- a former culture minister is not serious and not empowered to do anything but hand over a note.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Medinsky

Also, some clarity over the use of conscripts is leaking out in Russian opposition media.  The kids were sent on training exercises to Belarus or the border.  Shortly before they are deployed, they are presented with a "contract" that is filled out for them and told to sign. If they object, they are warned that they will have to be investigated for disloyalty to the Russian state. A lot of paper shuffling to get around the law that says you can't deploy conscripts abroad. 

This might sound like a lot of bother for a state that abuses whomever it wants,  but if you know anything about Soviet history this is exactly in keeping.  There needed to be some form of legal document for every bullet that went into the back of a head under Stalin.  The Soviet and now Russian state loves what it calls the "rule of law".  It is almost the inverse of how we in the West understand the rule of law.  The law is not an impartial arbiter, or something that everyone is equally subject to.  Rather, the law is weaponized and turned into a tool of "rule." 

The BBC had a good article on it yesterday. Pretty much said the conscripts are only.supposed.to.be there for 2-3 months then all of a sudden their entire unit gets their phones and comms confiscated up to their COs and some outside unit comes in a gives them marching orders.  Then they are seemingly just abandoned and told to keep going forward.  It looks like Russia was trying the overwhelming numbers approach and was expecting not to ever fire a real shot.  If that is who they are fighting right now where is the real Russian army.  

[Nicole44 22,059]

6 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

It's almost like it is too perfect....

Putin is a fly in the ointment of God so to speak so ya..

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Do you think Zelenskyy will go? This is so bad on too many levels. 

Of course not.  Even in normal times just from a protocol level that would never happen.  I'll be curious to see who does pop up there. 

[Nicole44 22,059]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

Of course not.  Even in normal times just from a protocol level that would never happen.  I'll be curious to see who does pop up there. 

He absolutely cannot go. But whoever goes needs to do this: Happy Trails and all that! 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

7 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The BBC had a good article on it yesterday. Pretty much said the conscripts are only.supposed.to.be there for 2-3 months then all of a sudden their entire unit gets their phones and comms confiscated up to their COs and some outside unit comes in a gives them marching orders.  Then they are seemingly just abandoned and told to keep going forward.  It looks like Russia was trying the overwhelming numbers approach and was expecting not to ever fire a real shot.  If that is who they are fighting right now where is the real Russian army.  

The conscripts are mixed in with the kontraktniki.  Even in Spetznatz units, although they get a more "choice" conscript.  You've been in the military-- think about what it would do to discipline and effectiveness if up to a quarter of your unit was 18 year old kids with basic training who didn't want to be there and who had been forced to stay. And now you're under fire. 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Of course not.  Even in normal times just from a protocol level that would never happen.  I'll be curious to see who does pop up there. 

Putin is not going to leave his bunker.  As dangerous as it is for Zelensky to go.  It is just as dangerous for Putin to leave. 

Putin views Zelensky as a maggot who isn't worth talking to a pimple on his ass.  He does not show up.  Zelensky knows this and if he goes it makes him look weak.  You're the head of a sovereign nation and the best they can do is former culture minister.  Nah.  Not today not ever.

[TexasEd 8,066]

8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Do you think Zelenskyy will go? This is so bad on too many levels. 

no.  He will stay hidden and will have proxies go.  I'm surprised he has tweeted and sent out as many videos as he has because of being tracked.

[RPM 26,318]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

You've been in the military-- think about what it would do to discipline and effectiveness if up to a quarter of your unit was 18 year old kids with basic training who didn't want to be there and who had been forced to stay. And now you're under fire. 

You just described Vietnam.

[FartingMonk 3,606]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The conscripts are mixed in with the kontraktniki.  Even in Spetznatz units, although they get a more "choice" conscript.  You've been in the military-- think about what it would do to discipline and effectiveness if up to a quarter of your unit was 18 year old kids with basic training who didn't want to be there and who had been forced to stay. And now you're under fire. 

If you were hardcore you'd shoot the first one who bitched and hoped the rest comply and don't jump your ass.  If you weren't so sure about the war you'd slow march it and have shit break down and just be like oh damn my luck.  I was hoping to get to Kiev by night fall but it looks like this damned fuel line has ruptured for the 3rd time.

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

14 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Forgive me the site but I’m flipping between 4 channels. 
CNN, BBC, MSNBC, Fox New and will be HLN when they show up to the party.

 

You forgot online..... Sky News (UK), DW (Germany), France24, all have live/free coverage channels on YT -- coverage, analysis of latest developments, and stories, not just a cam of a church in Kyiv.

[Nicole44 22,059]

Makes me think of JFK for some reason but a good read. And yes he is the right man at the right moment. Born for this as @Brisketexansaid. But he’s a legendary figure now. Churches even talking about this David v Goliath battle. Respect!!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

Reading that ruble dropped 40% against the dollar, and everyone is scrambling to get dollars even at that lower value.

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Reading that ruble dropped 40% against the dollar, and everyone is scrambling to get dollars even at that lower value.

Or to spend them on high-end electronics/etc. immediately.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

6 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Or to spend them on high-end electronics/etc. immediately.

Or horde the dollars If you’re afraid that Putin will push the West to raise the sanctions.

[Bevo 13,576]

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The conscripts are mixed in with the kontraktniki.  Even in Spetznatz units, although they get a more "choice" conscript.  You've been in the military-- think about what it would do to discipline and effectiveness if up to a quarter of your unit was 18 year old kids with basic training who didn't want to be there and who had been forced to stay. And now you're under fire. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

21 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

.  If that is who they are fighting right now where is the real Russian army.  

Look at their GDP.  Look at a lot of their equipment.  Look at Chechnya and how poorly they did there at times against a population almost a third of Kyiv’s   A lack of night vision gear and simple things like optics on rifles and the rumors that a lot of Russian military spending ends up in the pockets of Putin and his friends   

I think we are seeing the real Russian Army.  .  

[FartingMonk 3,606]

I would buy the ruble right now.  It's going to go back up.  We aren't going to see w military occupation of Russia.  We will pull the sanctions as quickly as possible once.Putin is gone.  Russian infrastructure isn't going to get touched.  

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

I would buy the ruble right now.  It's going to go back up.  We aren't going to see w military occupation of Russia.  We will pull the sanctions as quickly as possible once.Putin is gone.  Russian infrastructure isn't going to get touched.  

#Arbitrage

[Nicole44 22,059]

Translation: Was this human thing a Comedian in Ukraine? It's not funny to make it political, but he made it real by destroying any opponent.

 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Look at their GDP.  Look at a lot of their equipment.  Look at Chechnya and how poorly they did there at times against a population almost a third of Kyiv’s   A lack of night vision gear and simple things like optics on rifles and the rumors that a lot of Russian military spending ends up in the pockets of Putin and his friends   

I think we are seeing the real Russian Army.  .  

They walked into Donbas and took out the same guys they are fighting now with ease.  Everyone keeps saying look at Grozny.  That's a terrible comparison.  Those dudes in Grozny are Islamists raised in the brutal cold.  They would give even the toughest army in the world a good bruising.

 

[Nicole44 22,059]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Look at their GDP.  Look at a lot of their equipment.  Look at Chechnya and how poorly they did there at times against a population almost a third of Kyiv’s   A lack of night vision gear and simple things like optics on rifles and the rumors that a lot of Russian military spending ends up in the pockets of Putin and his friends   

I think we are seeing the real Russian Army.  .  

Exposed. What is scary are the Chechnya sweeper types they will send in or have already the murder types. The horrific type stuff.

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

6 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Exposed. What is scary are the Chechnya sweeper types they will send in or have already the murder types. The horrific type stuff.

What is scarier than that is what Russia did to Grozny.  Russia razed Grozny to the ground. This is Grozny-- a Russian city- in 1995.  Russia has this capability, they have refrained from doing it. 

The Russians have not been following usual Russian/Soviet doctrine.  They aren't fighting in combined arms groupings, they have yet to unleash heavy air support or artillery on urban centers.  They appear to have tried something "new" because of the insane assumptions about this war and they likely also wanted to avoid civilian casualties.  If they decide to start doing that, this gets very ugly very fast. 

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

I'm beginning to really have my doubts on what this invasion is about.  It might be subterfuge on the stock market to get Putin and his people more rich.  We know the money they have in the surface.  But what about the rest of it.  There is no way something that was going on for this long has been bumbled fucked this hard.  

 

 

Like did they really not have a plan B?

Edited February 28, 2022 by FartingMonk