Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BachelorTrek 3,063]

 

[Nicole44 22,079]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

What is scarier than that is what Russia did to Grozny.  Russia razed Grozny to the ground. This is Grozny-- a Russian city- in 1995.  Russia has this capability, they have refrained from doing it. 

The Russians have not been following usual Russian/Soviet doctrine.  They aren't fighting in combined arms groupings, they have yet to unleash heavy air support or artillery on urban centers.  They appear to have tried something "new" because of the insane assumptions about this war and they likely also wanted to avoid civilian casualties.  If they decide to start doing that, this gets very ugly very fast. 

I know I’ve been following y’all smart posters on this topic. Russia hasn’t even begun yet. I know this. I’m praying for a miracle. I feel like in many ways that’s already happened. With the world somewhat united. 

[956 Worldwide 34,806]

Also to note about that image of Grozny.  That happened in a war the Russians were "losing."  That said-- I actually do wonder if senior Russian commanders would authorize something like this in Ukraine.  They have to start thinking of tribunals.  

[BachelorTrek 3,063]

This man has some Huge Brass Balls!

[atomheartbevo 89,846]

15 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

They walked into Donbas and took out the same guys they are fighting now with ease.  Everyone keeps saying look at Grozny.  That's a terrible comparison.  Those dudes in Grozny are Islamists raised in the brutal cold.  They would give even the toughest army in the world a good bruising.

It’s possible their quality declined.  Texas by itself had a larger GDP by over 25% at a fraction of the population.  I know GDP is not indicative of military power, but perhaps the upgrades on their Air Force and a few other things soaked up all the money, leaving them to field the conscripts.  

[956 Worldwide 34,806]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s possible their quality declined.  Texas by itself had a larger GDP by over 25% at a fraction of the population.  I know GDP is not indicative of military power, but perhaps the upgrades on their Air Force and a few other things soaked up all the money, leaving them to field the conscripts.  

They’ve been spending more on personnel and balancing conscripts with contract soldiers.  What they’ve been doing is unexpected and weird. This guy is the best follow, has been right about most. He doesn’t tweet as much but what he does is gold.

 

[BachelorTrek 3,063]

I wondered why I couldn't see live traffic info in Ukraine anymore!

Google has disabled their live traffic data in Ukraine now on Google Maps.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-alphabet-idCAKBN2KX036

[atomheartbevo 89,846]

Hey @956 Worldwide You were wondering about the delegation I think.  Also rumors Ukraine is trying to join the EU.
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,806]

It's important also to note that there is a long, undistinguished tradition of Russia and the Soviet Union having amazing HUMINT and other intelligence capabilities that are completely useless in the face of truly bizarre and unrealistic political assumptions. Truly a case of a computer that has plenty of data but a processor that's programmed to provide the wrong answer. 

[956 Worldwide 34,806]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hey @956 Worldwide You were wondering about the delegation I think.  Also rumors Ukraine is trying to join the EU.
 

 

Those are serious people.  A warning to all-- don't be surprised if this goes nowhere and you start hearing about how the Ukrainians refused to accept a ceasefire.  Ukraine doesn't need a ceasefire it needs a political settlement.  A ceasefire with no agreement allows Russia's logistics tail to catch up with its teeth. 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

23 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I'm beginning to really have my doubts on what this invasion is about.  It might be subterfuge on the stock market to get Putin and his people more rich.  We know the money they have in the surface.  But what about the rest of it.  There is no way something that was going on for this long has been bumbled fucked this hard.  

 

 

Like did they really not have a plan B?

I am feeling the same way. Last night trying to fall asleep I just kept thinking about how something just doesn't seem to add up here. As has been discussed in this thread, just in Syria alone the Russians have shown to be so much more capable than this.

No efforts to cripple communication networks. Essentially no EW usage that we know of (even though Israel complained just two weeks ago about the impact Russian EW was having on their eyes in Syria). No cutting of the internet. Sloppy formations. Old equipment. Reliance on young, green conscripts. Complete abandonment of pre-existing Russian military doctrine. And all this after years and years of essentially obsessing over this exact conflict. 
 

I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.

[atomheartbevo 89,846]

 

[FartingMonk 3,608]

3 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

I am feeling the same way. Last night trying to fall asleep I just kept thinking about how something just doesn't seem to add up here. As has been discussed in this thread, just in Syria alone the Russians have shown to be so much more capable than this.

No efforts to cripple communication networks. Essentially no EW usage that we know of (even though Israel complained just two weeks ago about the impact Russian EW was having on their eyes in Syria). No cutting of the internet. Sloppy formations. Old equipment. Reliance on young, green conscripts. Complete abandonment of pre-existing Russian military doctrine. And all this after years and years of essentially obsessing over this exact conflict. 
 

I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.

It's been 4 days. I haven't heard or have any evidence of a single T72 fire a shot yet.  Do those tanks even have ammo?  We are getting played.

 

[956 Worldwide 34,806]

There are videos coming out now of Su-34 attack/bomber aircraft doing strikes on Kharkiv.  This is the type of capability you'd expect to have seen earlier.  Evidence they are shifting to what we should worry about and all the more important to get those EU MiGs to Ukraine ASAP. 

[atomheartbevo 89,846]

6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.

If Putin is playing some kind of long game, killing his economy and fucking with the value of pensions and paychecks seems….like something a gambler would do.  

Then again

[BachelorTrek 3,063]

39 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hey @956 Worldwide You were wondering about the delegation I think.  Also rumors Ukraine is trying to join the EU.
 

 

You mean this?
 

 

[BachelorTrek 3,063]

27 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

It's been 4 days. I haven't heard or have any evidence of a single T72 fire a shot yet.  Do those tanks even have ammo?  We are getting played.

 

I haven't seen the T-90s do shit, neither, other than get abandoned or blown-up by Javelin/NLAW anti-tank missiles.

[Constant 6,755]

 

[Constant 6,755]

 

[Constant 6,755]

 

[Constant 6,755]

 

[Constant 6,755]

 

[Hefeweizen 5,340]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

I am feeling the same way. Last night trying to fall asleep I just kept thinking about how something just doesn't seem to add up here. As has been discussed in this thread, just in Syria alone the Russians have shown to be so much more capable than this.

No efforts to cripple communication networks. Essentially no EW usage that we know of (even though Israel complained just two weeks ago about the impact Russian EW was having on their eyes in Syria). No cutting of the internet. Sloppy formations. Old equipment. Reliance on young, green conscripts. Complete abandonment of pre-existing Russian military doctrine. And all this after years and years of essentially obsessing over this exact conflict. 
 

I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.

I have this itchy feeling in the back of my brain as well.  But we are conditioned (I am nearly 50) by our childhood memory of the USSR.  This is not the Soviet Union.  I think there are probably some elite units but what if ole Vlad is keeping them nearby as insurance against China, the Norks, Turkey, Georgia, and Kazakhstan rebels?  Russia has a really long border (duh) and it's stripped it of something like 80% of its forces.  

Wagner is some bad shit:

 

 

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,165]

Moscow stock exchange didn’t open today. The Ruble has plunged.  Russian central bank raises interest rates more than 11% to 20%.  

[Hefeweizen 5,340]

 

That is going to leave a mark!  Wonder what a 30 year jumbo in Sochi goes for now.

[USNALonghorn 5,078]

10 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I have this itchy feeling in the back of my brain as well.  But we are conditioned (I am nearly 50) by our childhood memory of the USSR.  This is not the Soviet Union.  I think there are probably some elite units but what if ole Vlad is keeping them nearby as insurance against China, the Norks, Turkey, Georgia, and Kazakhstan rebels?  Russia has a really long border (duh) and it's stripped it of something like 80% of its forces.  

Wagner is some bad shit:

 

 

 

What’s up with these Eastern European shitholes (Russia, Ukraine, etc) abs their neo Nazi movements? Never understood it.

[Constant 6,755]

 

[Constant 6,755]

15 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Moscow stock exchange didn’t open today. The Ruble has plunged.  Russian central bank raises interest rates more than 11% to 20%.  

 

 

[Telegraph_it 3,359]

8 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

There is some graphic videos on twitter now showing aftermath. Civilian casualties for sure. 

[Telegraph_it 3,359]

I’ll be dipped. Still can’t read Cyrillic so I’ll take the tweets word for it. 
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34,806]

53 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I’m starting to have doubts myself.  Usually Occam’s Razor is the correct answer, but they can’t be this incompetent if they are fighting to win.  I assumed early on that they were way too overconfident and thought Ukraine would surrender and greet them as liberators.  That makes sense for the beginning, but that doesn’t really explain the response after it became apparent Ukraine was going to resist.  Nor does it explain why they are using so many conscripts who apparently don’t even know they’re in real combat instead of training exercises until it’s too late.

Some other possible theories:

1. Are they soft-pedaling the bombing and sending in useless conscripts to be cannon fodder because Putin is really nuts and wanted to use this as a reason to escalate into something bigger with NATO countries (and needed to save his good troops and his city-leveling weaponry for that fighting)?   I don’t really think so - why would he need the ruse of this invasion first, and why waste so much goodwill and materials on a sideshow?  But Soviets seemed to have a pathological need to justify to themselves all the unjustifiable things they do, even if in bizarre and unnecessary ways (like the example of making the conscripts sign bogus contracts when they’re already forcing them to go regardless).  So, I don’t know, maybe he felt he needed this instead of just directly attacking NATO first. 

2. Alternatively, and what I would probably bet on at this point (although frankly every theory has a lot of logical holes because what Putin is doing isn’t rational overall), maybe Putin is continuing to half-ass the war because he’s scared shitless of provoking NATO into crushing him?  He’s a punkass bully thug, essentially a mob boss in charge of a country, and like most bullies and criminals, he’s probably a coward when he’s not picking on someone he knows he can overpower.  He misjudged how easy it would be to take Ukraine, he feels stuck and like he can’t turn back, but he also feels like he has to conduct the war in a way that won’t cause the USA or NATO to escalate into something catastrophic.  

It’s like our Vietnam strategy.  None of that made sense if we were fighting to win, but we ultimately weren’t really fighting to win.  We were stuck there, fighting a dumb war we quickly found out our troops didn’t really want any part of, and we went through the motions with one hand tied behind our back because we were trying to avoid bringing a bigger enemy into it.  

Who knows - maybe he completely lost his marbles and doesn’t care if Armageddon happens - but if there is any plausible way to explain his actions, it’s that he thinks he has to win this war in a way that doesn’t piss off the international community more than it has already.  If that means his soldiers and a bunch of Chechens and Belarusians get chewed up in the streets of Kiev because he’s making them fight without the full strength of a combined arms attack - well he probably doesn’t give a shit as long as he eventually gets to install a puppet government in Ukraine and count it as a “win”.

You don't turn this stuff around on a dime. Russia is now shelling residential Kharkiv and using Su-34 bombers--"fighting to win."

To your point about the conscripts not knowing what they are doing- remember that Russia lied about the purpose of this force until the moment it rolled in.  Even that fig leaf wouldn't have worked if they had those same conscripts uploading TikToks (as they were doing) and saying "we're getting ready to invade Ukraine."  And if they had taken away their phones, that would have tipped off a bunch of Russian parents.  Likely only high-level commanders knew and even a week or so out, maybe certain officers in the field.  Although apparently Kadyrov knew months out of the general plan.  

I really do place my money on insane and irrational political assumptions.  Again, this is not something unusual for Soviet or Russian leadership. 

[smuggs 9,353]

39 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I have this itchy feeling in the back of my brain as well.  But we are conditioned (I am nearly 50) by our childhood memory of the USSR.  This is not the Soviet Union.  I think there are probably some elite units but what if ole Vlad is keeping them nearby as insurance against China, the Norks, Turkey, Georgia, and Kazakhstan rebels?  Russia has a really long border (duh) and it's stripped it of something like 80% of its forces.  

Wagner is some bad shit:

 

 

 

Lol, I beat this guy’s fucking ass in only my second attempt on Mike Tyson’s Punchout in ‘86.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by smuggs

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,823]

 

Oof… looks like it’ll be the bloodiest civilian catastrophe of this campaign to date.

Shit

[BabaYaga 15,331]

ooopsies….

 

[BabaYaga 15,331]

Dp 

Edited February 28, 2022 by BabaYaga

[BabaYaga 15,331]

Chelsea saves the world?

 

[UpperWestside 6,190]

I believe that things can be overthought in regards to Putin invading Ukraine. He is turning 70 this year. His window to restore Russia’s glory in his own view is growing closer to being shut for good in whatever years he has left. All you need to do is study the mind to realize why he is doing this. Whatever the fallout will be for him is worth the risk because he’s all in on making Russia have a higher standing in the world pecking order while he is still around to see it. 
 

He also massively underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and his gambit has made Russia a laughingstock on the world stage. What do mentally unstable people do in this situation now? They lash out like he did by putting the people in control of the nuclear arsenal on high alert. “Stable genius” he is not.

He reminds me of a kid that’s a bully to everyone until someone fights back. He has a very simplistic brain and I have long felt he is given way too much credit for being some kind of maniacal genius. He is a two-bit dictator with some big mental shortcomings. I would be interested to know more details about his childhood if any are available because that usually will tell the tale of how someone winds up the way they do later in life. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,175]

1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

I’m starting to have doubts myself.  Usually Occam’s Razor is the correct answer, but they can’t be this incompetent if they are fighting to win.  I assumed early on that they were way too overconfident and thought Ukraine would surrender and greet them as liberators.  That makes sense for the beginning, but that doesn’t really explain the response after it became apparent Ukraine was going to resist.  Nor does it explain why they are using so many conscripts who apparently don’t even know they’re in real combat instead of training exercises until it’s too late.

Some other possible theories:

1. Are they soft-pedaling the bombing and sending in useless conscripts to be cannon fodder because Putin is really nuts and wanted to use this as a reason to escalate into something bigger with NATO countries (and needed to save his good troops and his city-leveling weaponry for that fighting)?   I don’t really think so - why would he need the ruse of this invasion first, and why waste so much goodwill and materials on a sideshow?  But Soviets seemed to have a pathological need to justify to themselves all the unjustifiable things they do, even if in bizarre and unnecessary ways (like the example of making the conscripts sign bogus contracts when they’re already forcing them to go regardless).  So, I don’t know, maybe he felt he needed this instead of just directly attacking NATO first. 

2. Alternatively, and what I would probably bet on at this point (although frankly every theory has a lot of logical holes because what Putin is doing isn’t rational overall), maybe Putin is continuing to half-ass the war because he’s scared shitless of provoking NATO into crushing him?  He’s a punkass bully thug, essentially a mob boss in charge of a country, and like most bullies and criminals, he’s probably a coward when he’s not picking on someone he knows he can overpower.  He misjudged how easy it would be to take Ukraine, he feels stuck and like he can’t turn back, but he also feels like he has to conduct the war in a way that won’t cause the USA or NATO to escalate into something catastrophic.  

It’s like our Vietnam strategy.  None of that made sense if we were fighting to win, but we ultimately weren’t really fighting to win.  We were stuck there, fighting a dumb war we quickly found out our troops didn’t really want any part of, and we went through the motions with one hand tied behind our back because we were trying to avoid bringing a bigger enemy into it.  

Who knows - maybe he completely lost his marbles and doesn’t care if Armageddon happens - but if there is any plausible way to explain his actions, it’s that he thinks he has to win this war in a way that doesn’t piss off the international community more than it has already.  If that means his soldiers and a bunch of Chechens and Belarusians get chewed up in the streets of Kiev because he’s making them fight without the full strength of a combined arms attack - well he probably doesn’t give a shit as long as he eventually gets to install a puppet government in Ukraine and count it as a “win”.

Yes, people talk about nukes but Russia has 10000 options between what we see now and a nuke.  This is not even the D team.  Something is up. 

[Goredho 17,426]

5 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

This is dumb, retrograde, and misogynistic.

I know this site is 98% old horny dudes but post after post about your sex life in a thread about war is gross.

So here’s the attention you so desperately need.

Oh fuck, @Bama Chick nuked @Nicole44. WTF is NATO going to do now??!!

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,823]

Yes, people talk about nukes but Russia has 10000 options between what we see now and a nuke.  This is not even the D team.  Something is up. 

Take with a grain of salt

[Parliament 14,344]

So that big Normandy beach invasion of Southern Ukraine never happened?

[ChiTownDoc 21,175]

18 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Chelsea saves the world?

 

And it’s not Clinton.  What a world!

/noCR!

[TXSG8R 3,362]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

I am feeling the same way. Last night trying to fall asleep I just kept thinking about how something just doesn't seem to add up here. As has been discussed in this thread, just in Syria alone the Russians have shown to be so much more capable than this.

No efforts to cripple communication networks. Essentially no EW usage that we know of (even though Israel complained just two weeks ago about the impact Russian EW was having on their eyes in Syria). No cutting of the internet. Sloppy formations. Old equipment. Reliance on young, green conscripts. Complete abandonment of pre-existing Russian military doctrine. And all this after years and years of essentially obsessing over this exact conflict. 
 

I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.

If they are sandbagging, it’s coming at a terrible cost.  I know we have all read lots of Clancy novels so this feels like a trap, but it’s hard to compare their activities in Syria to Ukraine and draw any conclusions. Syria doesn’t have terrain constraints like Ukraine. Syria’s equipment and troops are dogshit compared to Ukraine.  

I do think there has been some hesitance to hammer the urban centers unlike stuff you would see Russia do in Syria, where everything was fair game. I think this is a boots on the ground hesitance, not something from the top.  I think a lot of that is due to the Slavic ties of Russian troops to Ukrainians.  I’m sure they find it way easier to shoot brown people. the other factor is just a way more chaotic battlefield because they are using similar equipment.

I think there is also an understanding of how important Ukraine is as a food source for Russia so they can’t just go ham without impacting their own country. They wanted to come in and decapitate the gov’t, replace it with stooges, then let them deal with the disgruntled population while keeping the economy going.  Those are constraints from the top that is also limiting how the Russian army is operating that weren’t factors in Syria.  

Russia still has a clear numerical and tech advantage, and if the goal was to take over the country without concern for what’s left, this would have been over in 48 hours.  The biggest surprise in all of this has been the complete and utter lack of combined arms coordination and timing.  Those are leadership issues full stop, and largely stem from no one being honest with Putin. They weren’t honest about their combined arms capability, their training and readiness, their adversary, the battlefield conditions, all of it.  This is the danger of surrounding yourself with yes men. 

[TXSG8R 3,362]

Obligatory big if true. 

[Parliament 14,344]

Sounds like Ukraine has the pilots to use them?

 

[Hefeweizen 5,340]

This is escalating.

[MontereyMX 869]

5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Obligatory big if true. 

HUGE!!

[TXSG8R 3,362]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Sounds like Ukraine has the pilots to use them?

 

I don’t think Ukraine lost many birds in the air.  A lot of them were lost while on the ground, so yes, I think they do. 

[GabrielsHorn 2,186]

The amount of propaganda coming from the Russians is crazy. They might have it in the east, but that definitely isn’t the case around Kyiv or western Ukraine. 
 

Also, Tom Malinowski (D) on CNN is discussing the worry is shelling about civilians and not nuclear war between Russia and the US. 

[mdmost 43,059]

33 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Chelsea saves the world?

 

Well they saved football a year ago so maybe?