Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Bateshorn 9942]

13 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

If they are sandbagging, it’s coming at a terrible cost.  I know we have all read lots of Clancy novels so this feels like a trap, but it’s hard to compare their activities in Syria to Ukraine and draw any conclusions. Syria doesn’t have terrain constraints like Ukraine. Syria’s equipment and troops are dogshit compared to Ukraine.  

I do think there has been some hesitance to hammer the urban centers unlike stuff you would see Russia do in Syria, where everything was fair game. I think this is a boots on the ground hesitance, not something from the top.  I think a lot of that is due to the Slavic ties of Russian troops to Ukrainians.  I’m sure they find it way easier to shoot brown people. the other factor is just a way more chaotic battlefield because they are using similar equipment.

I think there is also an understanding of how important Ukraine is as a food source for Russia so they can’t just go ham without impacting their own country. They wanted to come in and decapitate the gov’t, replace it with stooges, then let them deal with the disgruntled population while keeping the economy going.  Those are constraints from the top that is also limiting how the Russian army is operating that weren’t factors in Syria.  

Russia still has a clear numerical and tech advantage, and if the goal was to take over the country without concern for what’s left, this would have been over in 48 hours.  The biggest surprise in all of this has been the complete and utter lack of combined arms coordination and timing.  Those are leadership issues full stop, and largely stem from no one being honest with Putin. They weren’t honest about their combined arms capability, their training and readiness, their adversary, the battlefield conditions, all of it.  This is the danger of surrounding yourself with yes men. 

This is basically my take.  Plus, the myth of the awesome Russian military is just that, a bit of a myth. The 2008 and 2014 Georgia and Crimea invasions involved pathetically weak opponents and/or Russian majority ethnic bases who supported the action. Syria was just a chaotic clusterfuck where success and failure don’t look that different when you are mostly there to fuck with the Americans. I think that there has been a massive overestimate of Russian military capabilities outside the elite special forces.  

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

This guy is watching the Russian TV so we don’t have to:

 

[Buzzrock 14944]

28 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Oh fuck, @Bama Chick nuked @Nicole44. WTF is NATO going to do now??!!

 

[TXSG8R 3362]

2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

This is escalating.

Agreed.  This is the ace in Putin’s pocket. The best way to quell a citizen uprising is to show the citizenry how utterly powerless they are.  My worry since the beginning has been Putin leveling a small city to make his point. Force on force Ukraine is punching above their weight. There’s a reason boxing has weight classes though, and Ukraine can’t handle many haymakers.  I think the big miscalculation here is waiting too long and allowing local and international anger to galvanize.

The right move would have been to cut comms, daisy cutter a medium sized town or two, then let that bleed through the population while you advance armor towards Kiev. The airborne deep strikes without armor and air cap was absurd.  That’s something you do as a liberating army, not as an invader. Someone was drinking the kool aid.

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

Putin’s demeanor plus the brief look on his advisers’ faces are worth a thousand words. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

5 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Putin’s demeanor plus the brief look on his advisers’ faces are worth a thousand words. 

Putin's Advisors:

[TXSG8R 3362]

6 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Putin’s demeanor plus the brief look on his advisers’ faces are worth a thousand words. 

Empire of lies is a great band name. 

[Constant 6755]

 

[JOSEYWALES66 1805]

6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Putin's Advisors:

[BabaYaga 15324]

22 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Agreed.  This is the ace in Putin’s pocket. The best way to quell a citizen uprising is to show the citizenry how utterly powerless they are.  My worry since the beginning has been Putin leveling a small city to make his point. Force on force Ukraine is punching above their weight. There’s a reason boxing has weight classes though, and Ukraine can’t handle many haymakers.  I think the big miscalculation here is waiting too long and allowing local and international anger to galvanize.

The right move would have been to cut comms, daisy cutter a medium sized town or two, then let that bleed through the population while you advance armor towards Kiev. The airborne deep strikes without armor and air cap was absurd.  That’s something you do as a liberating army, not as an invader. Someone was drinking the kool aid.

Putin tried to emulate shock/awe.  They just didn’t have the horses to facilitate it.  They trotted out donkeys and mules dressed as thoroughbreds.  
 

and can you imagine rolling armor through the city without robust infantry support?   Those tanks wouldn’t make it more than a few blocks.  The Ukes can replicate Stalingrad or Leningrad id they really want and turn it into the mother of all blood baths.  

[956 Worldwide 34787]

A major development this weekend and Monday as well is the Belarus referendum.  The main outcomes of that are that Lukashenka has lifelong immunity from prosecution, extends his eligibility for time in office through 2035, that Russian troops can be stationed on Belarus soil permanently, and that Belarus has renounced its neutrality status and can accept Russian nuclear weapons.  The "referendum" was a tight-run election by Lukashenka standards-- 65 percent for, 10 percent against, and 78 percent turnout. (To be explicit-- these numbers are bullshit and were pulled from nothing).

As I have said on this thread, I think it's fair to say that Belarus is now a semi-autonomous Russian republic and not a real country in all but name.  I also want to flag the old rule when listening to Putin or Russian leaders that "every accusation is a confession." 

Accusation: "You're installing a puppet government in Ukraine, are sending troops there, and are going to point missiles and nukes at Russia from our border!"

Reality:  Makes puppet status of Lukashenka explicit, sends 150,000 Russian troops to Belarus, announces stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus against NATO. 

[BabaYaga 15324]

51 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Russia still has a clear numerical and tech advantage,

Didn’t you watch 300?   “We’ll funnel them through the hot gates where their numbers will count for nothing!”

[Aqua Buddha 14621]

I'm liking these Ukrainian women:

 

Former Miss Ukraine Anastasia Lenna picks up assault rifle to fight for her country and says, "Everyone who crosses the Ukrainian border with the intent to invade will be killed!" 

 

[F250 28823]

15 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Putin tried to emulate shock/awe.  They just didn’t have the horses to facilitate it.  They trotted out donkeys and mules dressed as thoroughbreds.  
 

The Russian "Shock and awe" campaign was more of a "here I sit broken hearted, tried to shit but only farted" campaign.

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19146]

 

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19146]

33 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Empire of lies is a great band name. 

 

 

[Parliament 14327]

1,3,2

Edited February 28, 2022 by Parliament

[Chad Fuck 17791]

1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

I’ll be dipped. Still can’t read Cyrillic so I’ll take the tweets word for it. 
 

 

I had wondered about this as we only heard the Ukrainian side.  There's a lot of fog or war going on.  Same deal with the Il-76s supposedly shot down.  Seems like we'd see wreckage as those are not small aircraft.  Lots of dust in the air right now.  I want to believe though.

[UTGrad98 2282]

There are 8 of them in that picture. Why didnt they kill him now? 

[Chad Fuck 17791]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Take with a grain of salt

 

 

 

 

Any one care to translate for those of us who don't speak Russian or Ukrainian?

 

[Message Board User 12396]

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Message Board User

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

 

[Chad Fuck 17791]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So that big Normandy beach invasion of Southern Ukraine never happened?

Ships are slow.  Maybe the Ukes can pull of some Argentine style Falkland islands surprises against them.  

[Dbeasy 15094]

Scattershooting while wondering whatever happened to Yakov Smirnoff:

Rubio's tweets could be psyops, they could be earnest concerns from the senate intelligence committee. One other thought came to mind. He's laying the foundation for the ultimate removal of Putin in power through a carefully coordinated action with Russians inside the government. That would explain how incredibly good US intelligence has been on all of this.

 

[pops 7007]

Just now, Chad Fuck said:

Any one care to translate for those of us who don't speak Russian or Ukrainian?

 

Allegedly Russian soldier texting his mom and saying they aren't really on a training mission,  they are in Ukraine and he doesn't know why and everyone is calling them fascists and he wants to come home and it sucks. 

That's basically what the translation in the replies said. 

[troph 24911]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

You don't turn this stuff around on a dime. Russia is now shelling residential Kharkiv and using Su-34 bombers--"fighting to win."

To your point about the conscripts not knowing what they are doing- remember that Russia lied about the purpose of this force until the moment it rolled in.  Even that fig leaf wouldn't have worked if they had those same conscripts uploading TikToks (as they were doing) and saying "we're getting ready to invade Ukraine."  And if they had taken away their phones, that would have tipped off a bunch of Russian parents.  Likely only high-level commanders knew and even a week or so out, maybe certain officers in the field.  Although apparently Kadyrov knew months out of the general plan.  

I really do place my money on insane and irrational political assumptions.  Again, this is not something unusual for Soviet or Russian leadership. 

I’m still betting on this is not like any other Russian war. Most importantly Russia is taking on a U.S. backed, trained, supplied, resupplied, advised, partially led, intelligence fed military that for the last 8 years has actually listened and trained liked their lives depended upon it. With advisors (aka on the field leadership) and a robust resupply chain of weapons forming this is not Syria or Afghanistan. Add to that sanctions that actually have teeth this time. Real time financial woes for Russian on the war finance side of things.
 

then add all of the mess we see with yes men, Russian soldiers not knowing, lack of training, etc etc and possibly, possibly a desire not to damage infrastructure thinking about governing post surrender which goes back to unrealistic political assumptions that Ukrainian would surrender. 
 

but I come back to there is only one military on the planet that could embarrass Russia like this is a U.S. led military and for all intents and purposes I think that’s what we have here. 

[Parliament 14327]

You gotta believe they're getting intel from his inner circle.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10357]

It's really odd that the Russian oil pipelines going through Ukraine are still flowing. Russian and Ukrainian personnel required to work together to maintain its flow...

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

[statsman 5483]

27 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A major development this weekend and Monday as well is the Belarus referendum.  The main outcomes of that are that Lukashenka has lifelong immunity from prosecution, extends his eligibility for time in office through 2035, that Russian troops can be stationed on Belarus soil permanently, and that Belarus has renounced its neutrality status and can accept Russian nuclear weapons.  The "referendum" was a tight-run election by Lukashenka standards-- 65 percent for, 10 percent against, and 78 percent turnout. (To be explicit-- these numbers are bullshit and were pulled from nothing).

As I have said on this thread, I think it's fair to say that Belarus is now a semi-autonomous Russian republic and not a real country in all but name.  I also want to flag the old rule when listening to Putin or Russian leaders that "every accusation is a confession." 

Accusation: "You're installing a puppet government in Ukraine, are sending troops there, and are going to point missiles and nukes at Russia from our border!"

Reality:  Makes puppet status of Lukashenka explicit, sends 150,000 Russian troops to Belarus, announces stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus against NATO. 

Similarly, how Russia keeps calling the Ukrainians “Nazis”. Which nation is more nationalist with a state directed market economy? Russia or Ukraine?

[956 Worldwide 34787]

6 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Any one care to translate for those of us who don't speak Russian or Ukrainian?

 

Mom: Alyosha, why is it taking so long to answer, are you on trainings?

A:  Mom, I am in Crimea, not on training.

M: And where? Dad wants to know if we can send you a package.

A: What are you talking about, a package, mom.  I just want the hell out of here, its all upside down.

M: Why are you talking like that? What happened?

A: Mom, I am in Ukraine. There is a real war here.  I am scared, we've last all order.....They told us that they will greet us but they're throwing themselves under our machines, we can't go.  They call us fascists. Mom, I am in a seriously bad way . . .

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

6 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

Putin just made Switzerland break it's long-standing neutrality stance. Impressive.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

It's really odd that the Russian oil pipelines going through Ukraine are still flowing. Russian and Ukrainian personnel required to work together to maintain its flow...

That’s a good measure of how total this war is at the moment. When/if they blow that pipeline, shit will already be proper fucked.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Mom: Alyosha, why is it taking so long to answer, are you on trainings?

A:  Mom, I am in Crimea, not on training.

M: And where? Dad wants to know if we can send you a package.

A: What are you talking about, a package, mom.  I just want the hell out of here, its all upside down.

M: Why are you talking like that? What happened?

A: Mom, I am in Ukraine. There is a real war here.  I am scared, we've last all order.....They told us that they will greet us but they're throwing themselves under our machines, we can't go.  They call us fascists. Mom, I am in a seriously bad way . . .

Ugh… 

that’s not a call I fucking ever want to receive

[SimonBolivar 10960]

5 hours ago, RPM said:

Russian Central Bank just raised interest rate to 20%

More than I'm legally allowed to charge my consumer clients here in Texas (18%) lol

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1501]

Putin’s demeanor plus the brief look on his advisers’ faces are worth a thousand words. 

My free association thoughts

Long table
Hostage video
Dr Evil

[NoName 16407]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Seeing some news that the Ukraine-Russia negotiations will start within the hour near the border in Belarus.  The leader of the Russian delegation is Vladimir Medinsky-- a former culture minister.  You can read up about him here.  Shouldn't need to be said-- a former culture minister is not serious and not empowered to do anything but hand over a note.

i mean, that is the role of anyone from the RUS side in this negotiation and most very high level negotiations that Putin is involved in. delegation leaders = mouthpiece, sharing a message, stepping out to have discussions with folks back in-country, coming back to share that data, etc.

Medinsky may have been the culture minister but has been part of Unity/United Russia since day 1 basically, at pretty high levels from within. He is no rando

[tejas60 3534]

58 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Putin’s demeanor plus the brief look on his advisers’ faces are worth a thousand words. 

somebody needs to photoshop them playing shuffleboard on that table.

[Js1 85587]

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Similarly, how Russia keeps calling the Ukrainians “Nazis”. Which nation is more nationalist with a state directed market economy? Russia or Ukraine?

Words mean whatever you want them to mean. 

[Nivek 16987]

7 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

8 hours ago, PTINS said:

Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East 
Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East
EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East
US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME)
Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN.  
Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? 
This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?  

I think everyone will be buying gas and oil from Russia quicker than anyone thinks but eventually at lower volumes. It takes too long to build out infrastructure systems to alleviate near ten shortage and in the long run the world is investing in alternative sources.

No, commodities traders will be buying russian oil and selling it on ships originating from landlocked nations.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

I imagine many Russians know they’re being lied to but also know there is little they can do. Of course im sure there are some that believe Putin 100%.

 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

10 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

More than I'm legally allowed to charge my consumer clients here in Texas (18%) lol

Sounds like you need to invade Oklahoma and push them up!

[TXSG8R 3362]

30 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Putin tried to emulate shock/awe.  They just didn’t have the horses to facilitate it.  They trotted out donkeys and mules dressed as thoroughbreds.  
 

and can you imagine rolling armor through the city without robust infantry support?   Those tanks wouldn’t make it more than a few blocks.  The Ukes can replicate Stalingrad or Leningrad id they really want and turn it into the mother of all blood baths.  

I think Putin fundamentally misunderstood shock & awe then.  The goals are not to put on a parade display for the media and/or general public. It’s designed to be a coordinated and overwhelming crush on military capability that paralyzes military and gov’t leadership. You take so many pieces off the board all at once that you destroy every level of response that their defense can muster.  In Iraq we put a missile in every AA system, comms unit, ammo dump, emplaced armor, and plane on the ground, almost simultaneously. You saturate their leadership in information and force paralysis through analysis so they are incapable of responding in any coordinated way. We didn’t roll armor into Baghdad in 2 days, but they arrived largely intact because there was no coordinated capability to stop them or reduce their fighting capability. To summarize in gif form:

 

[Goredho 17421]

5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I think Putin fundamentally misunderstood shock & awe then.  The goals are not to put on a parade display for the media and/or general public. It’s designed to be a coordinated and overwhelming crush on military capability that paralyzes military and gov’t leadership. You take so many pieces off the board all at once that you destroy every level of response that their defense can muster.  In Iraq we put a missile in every AA system, comms unit, ammo dump, emplaced armor, and plane on the ground, almost simultaneously. You saturate their leadership in information and force paralysis through analysis so they are incapable of responding in any coordinated way. We didn’t roll armor into Baghdad in 2 days, but they arrived largely intact because there was no coordinated capability to stop them or reduce their fighting capability. To summarize in gif form:

 

If the goal of shock and awe is “to be a coordinated and overwhelming crush on military capability that paralyzes military and gov’t leadership” Putin has achieved that, albeit against his own country.  Let’s call it “shock-and-aww-shucks.”

Edited February 28, 2022 by Goredho

[Bateshorn 9942]

27 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Scattershooting while wondering whatever happened to Yakov Smirnoff:

Rubio's tweets could be psyops, they could be earnest concerns from the senate intelligence committee. One other thought came to mind. He's laying the foundation for the ultimate removal of Putin in power through a carefully coordinated action with Russians inside the government. That would explain how incredibly good US intelligence has been on all of this.

 

I don’t want to overstate this, but as somebody who lives and works in and about the US government and Congress: think Veep, not West Wing.

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don’t want to overstate this, but as somebody who lives and works in and about the US government and Congress: think Veep, not West Wing.

His tweets have tracked a lot of career analysts, to the point that early on I thought he was just rehashing Vindman’s tweets.  Not suggesting its tracking the psyops/removal stuff from OP, but the intel has been on point.  

[atomheartbevo 89810]

38 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

 

That's a really long table - Putin as of late seems to prefer long tables where nobody is sitting near him.

Reminds me a little bit of something

 

[Nivek 16987]

3 hours ago, Constant said:

 

Wagner/PMC is the group that with 500 men, armor and other vehicles, they couldn't manage a surprise attack against 21 US Special Forces and they (Wagner) were absolutely destroyed.   So embarrassed they changed/modified their name.   Seems to me they would lose an easter egg hunt to a bunch of 4 yr olds.

[atomheartbevo 89810]

Every time I see Russian officials with Putin now, it's like