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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76963

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

As the Russians start shelling civilians indiscriminately, there will be less and less resistance to the US using air strikes and I’m increasingly fine with that.

We could end this by Wednesday.

We should be sending drones asap. Take out every rocket launcher, tank and artillery 

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10237

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

This is my only source. I tried following news media for 10 minutes but it's so far behind Surly, it's sad and pathetic.

Lot of the media and things posted are heavily in positive favor of Ukraine as well. I still can't wrap my head around that what we are hearing/seeing is actually what is going on there. Even if Russia is acting completely idiotic, their sheer number of personnel and equipment available would have to provide many more "wins" than I think we are hearing about.  Based only on what western media is presenting there could be no justification for Putin/Chechnya/Belarus continuing to send sheep to the slaughter so to speak.

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Skipper

Skipper 6135

Posted
Posted
Just now, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Lot of the media and things posted are heavily in positive favor of Ukraine as well. I still can't wrap my head around that what we are hearing/seeing is actually what is going on there. Even if Russia is acting completely idiotic, their sheer number of personnel and equipment available would have to provide many more "wins" than I think we are hearing about.  Based only on what western media is presenting there could be no justification for Putin/Chechnya/Belarus continuing to send sheep to the slaughter so to speak.

I agree we are almost certainly only seeing one side of this conflict.  While I think Vegas would have set odds of Kiev being under Russian control by now pretty high when this all kicked off, and hard to argue Ukraine is not exceeding expectations in the big picture, I have no doubt Russia has plenty of smaller victories.  Particularly in the South and East where it's been acknowledged (but somewhat glossed over) that they have made progress.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So some early morning Monday thoughts on some of the developments in Europe as it has been a fairly astonishing weekend on that front.  Will look forward to @Shady Ray and his thought.

1.  German chancellor Scholz' announcement that Germany was going to spend 2 percent on defense starting like, NOW, is one of the more earthshattering pronouncements in European politics that I can remember.  Something else that got somewhat lost-- he also admitted that a nuclear deterrent is required to defend Europe. A SOCIAL DEMOCRAT said that.  This is something the Germans would quietly admit to us but would dance around with their public.  Do not take that to mean that Germany will build their own deterrent.  NATO is a nuclear alliance and even within the EU itself, France possesses a deterrent.  But what I would read into that is two things-- first, that we can now begin to discuss seriously a European defense policy funded mostly by Germany with France (and to a lesser extent German) firms becoming the big winners.  Second, NATO is not going anywhere for a long, long time.  It is highly unlikely that Europe would feel 'OK' with only France as their umbrella.  The other two big nuclear powers-- the Brits and us-- are not in the EU and all the other EU nations are signatories to the non-proliferation treaty.  That will not be broken.  So if this holds, what I think you will see is something that successive U.S. administrations have wanted for some time-- a Europe more capable of taking on responsibility for its defense conventionally but explicitly married to NATO and the U.S. as a strategic partner.  There will be some bumps along the way, for sure, but this is a positive development.  In the short to medium term, you will see more of the U.S. in Europe, particularly on the eastern flank, as those nations want our tech and our capabilities, which is something the EU minus Britain simply doesn't have right now.

2. I want to talk about what is happening to Putin's carefully curated network of influence and information warfare in Europe.  We are watching it get dismantled as I type this.  The EU announced that two sources of Russian state propaganda directed at the external world-- Russia Today (TV) and Sputnik (online/print)-- are now not allowed to operate within the EU.  At the state level, governments are beginning to unplug the network of daughter and cousin outlets that serve as amplifiers for those outlets-- I mentioned that the Czech Republic, for instance, killed twenty-two of them.  In Slovakia, the national authorities are announcing that spreading support for the war and Putin's propaganda will be criminalized under the same statutes that made it illegal to praise or support Nazism or the Soviet Union after 1989-- they were written to outlet the "advocation of totalitarian regimes."  On the financial and economic front, the sanctions are sweeping and unlike previous rounds, every indication is that a key difference will be in enforcement-- states will look to enforce and sanctioned entities will have to struggle to find workarounds. In previous versions, the states put them on the books but for the most part tried to apply them as liberally as possible.  The EU is closing itself to Russian airplanes.  Massive companies like BP are getting out AHEAD of sanctions by divesting in Russian holdings because they understand the headwinds of public opinion and potential legal actions against them.  Look for Russian companies to be excluded from upcoming nuclear tenders in the EU space, where believe it or not ROSATOM was a favored partner for new plants. Putin's "friends" in the EU are now on the total defensive and making their arguments quietly because they don't dare to speak up publicly. I could go on and on about this but the bottom line is that Russia has turned itself into a pariah state that for the time being has defenders kind of like Venezuela or Iran have defenders. They exist but are going to keep their heads down for a long time. 

This is important especially because as the world came out of COVID, it wasn't just the United States that had irresponsible populism gaining ground. Putin and Russia have blown their chance at influencing those movements openly and the movements themselves will have to do a huge tap dance around the "Russia" question. 

3. On the flip side, Putin did something no U.S. president since GHWB during Desert Storm has managed to do-- turn the United States into the good guys.  With almost every single warning from the U.S. proving accurate and with the U.S. speaking clearly and with sober restraint about what we can do to stop it, U.S. leadership in Europe is looking pretty damn good for the time being.  Some of the signs about this are in how the EU is acting-- all of these earthshattering moves, some of them outrunning the pace of the United States, are coming without any recent from the United States urging them to do it  It's just happening.  It is a good sign when an Alliance leader doesn't have to poke and prod recalcitrant members to do stuff.  This is a tremendous window of opportunity and we need to behave with what I would call "firm restraint." We need to decide what is core for us and not budge, we need to let Europeans get to the decisions we want them to make on their own, and we need to not push our gains to the point that we look craven and opportunistic.  It's basically all on us now. 

I could keep going but I don't want too go more longcat here in a thread that moves so rapidly.  And the situation changes hourly.  Slava Ukraini!

I'm not fully caught up on the thread (how could one possibly be?), so forgive me if I'm restating anything.  But a few thoughts:

1) Germany had a major intelligence failure.  It happens.  It's not unlike the Israeli failure to predict the Arab invasion in 1973 or the Soviet invasion in 1941.  The BND is a good intelligence agency, but so were Mossad and the NKVD.

It's kind of a creature of confirmation bias.  People have a real hard time foreseeing radical shifts in the status quo, particularly when the status quo is comfortable.  A Russian invasion of Ukraine would greatly upset a very comfortable German economy, which is reliant on cheap Russian energy.  Given a predisposal to believe that the status quo would continue, it's really hard for intelligence analysts to see that it wouldn't (even when the evidence is staring you in the face).

In complete fairness to Germany, it is now apparent that its pre-war behavior was the result of an intelligence failure, and not some deeper-held support for Russia or tolerance for Russian aggression.  I think that has come as a bit of a shock to Moscow (which is suffering its own intelligence failures).

2) Your point on the Russian propaganda network is well-made, and I think it undermines the thinking that Russia has some great scheme or is somehow playing possum.  Shit that they've spent 20 years building is just being destroyed in less than a week.

3) Right now, it's really hard to find any fault in how Biden has played this.  And as the nuclear rhetoric ramps up, this gives me some comfort.

I do have to observe that it's interesting to compare how we're playing the Russian nuclear threat today with how the Germans were playing the threat of invasion a few weeks ago.

If you think a nuclear attack is unlikely, then you're right not to match the Russian increase in alert status with your own increase.  Just play it chill; don't do anything that could be escalatory.  We've got a lot of weapons.  Everyone knows that.  And the last thing we need to do is make a move that Russia could use to justify further escalation.

And that's exactly what Germany was doing three weeks ago.  Germany legitimately didn't think that Russia would invade Ukraine, based on its (flawed) intelligence.  So the smart thing to do, based on Russian intent as they evaluated it, was to play it chill and avoid any escalation.

I just hope our intel is better than what the Germans' was.

7 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

I am feeling the same way. Last night trying to fall asleep I just kept thinking about how something just doesn't seem to add up here. As has been discussed in this thread, just in Syria alone the Russians have shown to be so much more capable than this.


No efforts to cripple communication networks. Essentially no EW usage that we know of (even though Israel complained just two weeks ago about the impact Russian EW was having on their eyes in Syria). No cutting of the internet. Sloppy formations. Old equipment. Reliance on young, green conscripts. Complete abandonment of pre-existing Russian military doctrine. And all this after years and years of essentially obsessing over this exact conflict. 
 

I am no military man…but something just feels off here. I hope and pray that it truly is that they have just botched this thing.

So I think there are a few issues that explain what's going on:

1) Russia is in the midst of its own massive intelligence failure.  They legitimately believed the whole "we are one people" bullshit that the Kremlin has been spewing and expected that they would at least not be strongly opposed (and may even be welcomed in large sections of the country).  And if that's your expectation, then not only do you not need to go in with overwhelming force, you probably don't want to.  You'd probably prefer to use as little force as possible so as to (1) preserve infrastructure) and (2) not incite a rebellion with unnecessary civilian casualties.

2) I do think it's important to remember just how paranoid Russia is.  They purportedly have something like 70% of their BTGs in or near the Ukrainian theater, but that leaves something like 30% elsewhere.  And it wouldn't surprise me if that other 30% were the best trained and equipped, and were in defensive positioning in anticipation of a NATO strike from Poland, the Baltics, or even the Caucuses.  And that would really make a lot of sense if you thought you could roll into Ukraine with the B Team and face light opposition.

3) I think Russian forces may be facing a severe shortage of munitions.

I remember that's something that really surprised us in the Iraq invasion--the speed with which we used munitions.  And at one point we started to face a real issue with small-arms ammunition, in particular.  

Russia hasn't been in a real war in a long time, and it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't adequately prepare the logistics needed for a modern invasion.  That would certainly explain why we have seen such a severe reduction in the tempo of air-to-ground sorties over the past couple days.

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22060

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Kyiv is getting fucking hammered now. Results of peace talks, they are cranking up the pain to try and get something tomorrow. 
 

Slava Ukraini! 

God Speed! I hope they are getting the necessary supplies now that were promised by world leaders and ammunition and such. Hope their emergency application to thenEU is approved. If we made them part of NATO could we take out the Russians then? I realize precisely what that would mean but Putin has started a fucking war and he is unhinged and needs to be assasinated and hopefully by his own people so the invasion will stop. The War Crimes we are witnessing right before our eyes right now is just heartbreakingly awful. 

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Auto Driller

Auto Driller 2506

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, the truth is they will have a european capital in a week.  that's blitzkreigian.  it's why i don't give much credence to the 'putin is melting down' / 'here comes the coup' wish casting we do.

The entire EU and NATO are going to ensure this is not the case. Relentlessly shelling civilians in a capital city and “having” that city are very different things.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21856

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

What’s to talk about:

Hey Russia, GTFO.  End of discussion.

The only thing I can think of is if Russia demands the two "breakaway" areas of eastern Ukraine be given up permanently.  Might be the only way he saves face and can extract himself from this.

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

Posted
Posted
Just now, Laxtonto said:

Did the rumored massive paratrooper drop ever end up happening last night/this morning?

 

What is happening is everything that they think is going to happen ends up happening 2 days later. The US Intel is really fucking with them.  They are lined up to go and the US says hey I see you guys are about to drop in eh?  They sent it so they don't do it and then two days later they do it and tell the US see we didn't two days ago like you said we would.

 

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30455

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Did the rumored massive paratrooper drop ever end up happening last night/this morning?

 

No, it's supposed to be 5am today, but I read a report that the US isn't seeing any significant movement towards staging or loading planes, so they're not sure anymore.

Edited by MillerEP
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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

The only thing I can think of is if Russia demands the two "breakaway" areas of eastern Ukraine be given up permanently.  Might be the only way he saves face and can extract himself from this.

yeah, i think there can be some face saving there.  you can even have them stay part of ukraine.  russia could announce Ukraine agreed to allow 500 troops to remain in those provinces to ensure continued protection of the russians living there for x number of years.  hooray, look at the great things we did for our people.

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11765

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, the truth is they will have a european capital in a week.  that's blitzkreigian.  it's why i don't give much credence to the 'putin is melting down' / 'here comes the coup' wish casting we do.

Its a capital whose center city is 152 ROAD km from their main point of attack. about 94 fucking miles.   and the current intel says Russia's main forces are still 15-20KM from the city center of Kiev.  

and that is literally ONE road under their control.  

When Warsaw fell, it took 26 days, 525Km away from the closest main German City-  and 300Km from Koenigsburg.

 

Not really the same thing considering that Germany was still mostly mounted horse transporting.    Yeah the tanks could move fast, but they needed the gas and the infantry to keep up.

Germany took Warsaw in 26 days WITH HORSES as their main method of transport.    Russia has tanks and BMPs that can travel 150Km in 3 fucking hours.  and 5 days later they are only 120Km in

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GW Hayduke

GW Hayduke 1953

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I do have to observe that it's interesting to compare how we're playing the Russian nuclear threat today with how the Germans were playing the threat of invasion a few weeks ago.

If you think a nuclear attack is unlikely, then you're right not to match the Russian increase in alert status with your own increase.  Just play it chill; don't do anything that could be escalatory.  We've got a lot of weapons.  Everyone knows that.  And the last thing we need to do is make a move that Russia could use to justify further escalation.

And that's exactly what Germany was doing three weeks ago.  Germany legitimately didn't think that Russia would invade Ukraine, based on its (flawed) intelligence.  So the smart thing to do, based on Russian intent as they evaluated it, was to play it chill and avoid any escalation.

If the US chose to escalate on the nuclear front, it could take away from what is currently happening on the economic front, ukraine/russia conventional front, and with the current hardening between western allies. It seems like pushing nukes into the political discourse wouldn't help us. 

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1651

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, i think there can be some face saving there.  you can even have them stay part of ukraine.  russia could announce Ukraine agreed to allow 500 troops to remain in those provinces to ensure continued protection of the russians living there for x number of years.  hooray, look at the great things we did for our people.

That possibility is no longer an option. The world has unified against Russia. 

There is no end-game I see where Russian keeps any part of Ukraine. Either they overthrow Putin sooner and pull out willingly, or their economy crashes and they have a full-on revolution within 6 months.  I just hope they keeps their nukes bottled up.  

 

 

Edited by 0xdeadbeef
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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12080

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

No, it's supposed to be 5am today, but I read a report that the US isn't seeing any significant movement towards staging or loading planes, so they're not sure anymore.

Well…. Paratroop drops are suicide if they know you are coming. How many mobile anti air sites and handhelds would they really need to decimate them before they ever got out of the plane.

Many of the old WW2 paratroopers I have met over the years always talked about the fear of the entire plane getting hit… 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

If the US chose to escalate on the nuclear front, it could take away from what is currently happening on the economic front, ukraine/russia conventional front, and with the current hardening between western allies. It seems like pushing nukes into the political discourse wouldn't help us. 

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
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Posted
20 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, the truth is they will have a european capital in a week.  that's blitzkreigian.  it's why i don't give much credence to the 'putin is melting down' / 'here comes the coup' wish casting we do.

It's not wishcasting at all.  For the first time, pretty much ever, the Swiss are freezing Russian assets.  My sister in law lives in Geneva - there's Russians with massive sums of money that are frozen.  They never thought that could happen and they are 100% panicking.  I don't give a shit who you are.  If you have dozens of billionaires losing 100's of millions of dollars each because of you, and only you...then yes, absolutely your life is in very real danger.  These are all facts.  Is it possible nothing happens to Putin?  Of course, but it's not wishcasting to assume he's in very real danger.  Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.  

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Syrian advice on how to fight the Russians.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/28/syrian-rebels-have-advice-for-ukrainian-fighters-on-fighting-russians/

 

 

I'm of the mind Stingers took out way more planes opening night than is known. RU isn't even flying sorties for appearances.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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