Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

This was posted probably 10+ pages back, but it's from November of last year and accurately predicted the Russian supply problems (and it gets into why Russians have a hard time firing lots of rockets):

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

"Russia’s truck logistic support, which would be crucial in an invasion of Eastern Europe, is limited by the number of trucks and range of operations. It is possible to calculate how far trucks can operate using simple beer math. Assuming the existing road network can support 45 mph speeds, a single truck can make three trips a day at up to a 45-mile range: One hours to load, one hour to drive to the supported unit, one hours to unload, and another hour to return to base. Repeating this cycle three times equals 12 hours total. The rest of the day is dedicated to truck maintenance, meals, refueling, weapons cleaning, and sleeping. Increase the distance to 90 miles, and the truck can make two trips daily. At 180 miles, the same truck is down to one trip a day. These assumptions won’t work in rough terrain or where there is limited/damaged infrastructure. If an army has just enough trucks to sustain itself at a 45-mile distance, then at 90 miles, the throughput will be 33 percent lower. At 180 miles, it will be down by 66 percent. The further you push from supply dumps, the fewer supplies you can replace in a single day.

The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps. To reach a 180-mile range, the Russian army would have to double truck allocation to 400 trucks for each of the material-technical support brigades. To gain familiarity with Russian logistic requirements and lift resources, a useful starting point is the Russian combined arms army. They all have different force structures, but on paper, each combined army is assigned a material-technical support brigade. Each material-technical support brigade has two truck battalions with a total of 150 general cargo trucks with 50 trailers and 260 specialized trucks per brigade. The Russian army makes heavy use of tube and rocket artillery fire, and rocket ammunition is very bulky. Although each army is different, there are usually 56 to 90 multiple launch rocket system launchers in an army. Replenishing each launcher takes up the entire bed of the truck. If the combined arms army fired a single volley, it would require 56 to 90 trucks just to replenish rocket ammunition. That is about a half of a dry cargo truck force in the material-technical support brigade just to replace one volley of rockets. There is also between six to nine tube artillery battalions, nine air defense artillery battalions, 12 mechanized and recon battalions, three to five tank battalions, mortars, anti-tank missiles, and small arms ammunition — not to mention, food, engineering, medical supplies, and so on. Those requirements are harder to estimate, but the potential resupply requirements are substantial. The Russian army force needs a lot of trucks just for ammunition and dry cargo replenishment."

--------

The whole article is worth a read, seriously.  This reinforces the idea that some are discussing, that Russian forces all over Ukraine have run into serious problems once they got a certain distance form their supply dumps, and that it's not just problems with destruction/surrender, but also the roads/terrain.  And if you have Russian truckers who are slow-rolling for one reason or another (scared, not wanting to make too many runs), it can jam up everything.

And everybody worried about that big-ass convoy - because of the near-freezing temps, every one of those trucks/vehicles are probably running their engines, even if they aren't moving, to keep the troops/etc. warm, which puts engine wear on those vehicles, and more importantly, uses up fuel.  And the reluctant drivers are probably more than happy to use up lots of fuel.

If any historian ever doubted that the Soviet Union was able to prevail in World War II solely because of Lend-Lease, the Russians are putting that doubt to bed right now.

49 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Agreed.  Here's the interesting thing:  They aren't refuting Ukraine's numbers on dead Russians/destroyed equipment.  While I think those numbers would be great if they are half of what the Ukrainians are claiming, the fact that the Russians aren't coming out and saying "actually it's only 50 Russians murdered by the Nazis" is telling, and not just because the Ukrainians could easily trot out 200 Russian corpses.

If the Russians aren't willing to acknowledge any numbers, even if only 10% of what Ukraine claims, it means that they know the population at home is not buying this war, and there would be a chance they would be refuted. They also know the population probably wouldn't buy official Russian numbers (not after Georgia, Crimea, Chechnya, etc.).  They also don't want to boast

The leaders are very self-aware about how things are going.

 

The Ukrainians are posting numbers based on their inferences from what they're doing.  Typically, that's going to be inflated--"yeah, you shot down that helicopter, but it didn't actually kill all three crewmembers (two survived)."  Or "yeah, Ilya definitely shot in the direction of ten guys, but he didn't actually hit shit (much less kill eight of them)."

But, at the same time, the Ukrainian numbers aren't going to account for anything that is happening behind the lines from non-combat injuries/deaths.  So if a Russian helicopter crashes because of a maintenance failure, or if a Russian private gets run over by a truck because the driver was shitfaced on vodka, or if a Russian tank misidentifies a Russian BMP and destroys it--none of that is going to go into the Ukrainian figures.  And we know from our military engagements over the past 20 years that those kind of non-combat deaths happen.  Like, a lot.

So what I guess this post presupposes is . . . maybe the Russian casualty figures are understated.

[Bevo 13,577]

13 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Send address, I'll bring guns and booze and gear. My bug out supplies are ample.

I would say interjecting your every fleeting thought into a war thread is a bit annoying. And it's a bit gauche to discuss your sex life here as well. I wouldn't take it personally.

[Pig Bellmont 8,718]

17 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Send address, I'll bring guns and booze and gear. My bug out supplies are ample.

Username checks out

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

Tell Putin he can step down and China can offer him sanctuary if everyone is sanguine about it. 
 

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

My son's best army buddy just texted me wanting to know if I could help him find a kid journalist to embed in their unit of American legionnaires. I don't know any candidates off the top of my head because I am an old now, but I know there are probably ten thousand young journalists who would leap at the chance. Dilemma is what if something happens to them, and I am the guy who hooked it up?

[FartingMonk 3,606]

3 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

My son's best army buddy just texted me wanting to know if I could help him find a kid journalist to embed in their unit of American legionnaires. I don't know any candidates off the top of my head because I am an old now, but I know there are probably ten thousand young journalists who would leap at the chance. Dilemma is what if something happens to them, and I am the guy who hooked it up?

Wear a GoPro.  Go into the shit.  Broadcast on youtube

[Steel Shank 9,425]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Pantex and Dyess are both within 2 hours or so of Lubbock.  Good luck with that, since both will get hit, and the wind will eventually get you all.

OK, then Mr. Smarty Pants, Ropes then.

[Born to Run 6,569]

This tweet in particular is interesting from Rubio. It seems understood that the messaging he's been putting out is agreed upon by more people than just Rubio. So whats the point of this tweet if not to start the debate? Our intelligence has been dead nuts on, so presumably they expect a "medieval siege" to be the plan. 
We've sanctioned just about everything, so what other options are there? Assassinate Putin? Try and stage a Russian coupe? I just doubt the rest of the world will sit back and watch him murder tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. We will have to deal with this Russian fuckstick sooner or later, as he has crossed a line where his only options moving forward are to escalate. 

Intercede with humanitarian aid but no weapons???

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Maybe trying to allow our folks the chance to get out, and send theirs home?  Like the ones that are part of Russia's UN team that we just kicked out of the US for being spies?  Just some guesses.

Anyway I'm glad to see it. 

It's not that.  It's all about giving the American airlines time to figure out new routings and scheduling.

We have a lot of flights from the United States to East Asia that currently go through Russian airspace.  As soon as we close our airspace to Russian aircraft, Russia is going to do the same. 

That's kind of a big deal.  For example, AA9721 from DFW to ICN typically goes over the Russian Far East.  This is going to cause that flight to take a more southerly routing over Japan.  That will probably add an hour to the flight and increase the fuel burn (and hence the airline's cost).  And on some of these flights, it's going to mean that the flight is now going to need a refueling stop (ANC is about to get a whole lot busier).

It's not a crisis.  But it does require the airlines to do some planning.

[Macanudo 12,978]

I'm curious about something.   If the Russians targeted Pantex, what would the fallout be like throughout the Southwest and Midwest?

[FartingMonk 3,606]

Everyone wants to to talk about going.  No one is actually willing to go.  Honestly if someone nfelt that strongly about going right now.  What is stopping you.  

[Bateshorn 9,927]

41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Under 30 days.

Or more than 200.

Not much in between.  It's either over pretty quickly because shit got too real and someone takes an off-ramp, or it becomes a long slog with an insurgency.

In a sense, sorta both.  My understanding is the Ukrainians are starting to run low on heavy munitions, and other fighting supplies, and the Russians are eventually going to unfuck their supply issues.  
 

But on the OTOH, with NATO basically supplying endless amounts of weapons for an insurgent action, this thing can just grind on indefinitely in the country side. Also, I’m not sure how the Russians are going to get the Ukrainian farmers to plant in the spring.  

[Steel Shank 9,425]

33 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Unless they hate balloons and want to fuck up our strategic Helium reserve in Amarillo or just feel that making speed up old 87 is close to heaven.

Or miss Norad by a few clicks.

Big Bend is probably safest excepting available water and supplies.

I can see the Dixie Dog in Wolfforth.

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Don't stop an enemy when they are making a big blunder and Putin made one. Russia is fucked for a long time even if sanctions are lifted.

[Bateshorn 9,927]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's not that.  It's all about giving the American airlines time to figure out new routings and scheduling.

We have a lot of flights from the United States to East Asia that currently go through Russian airspace.  As soon as we close our airspace to Russian aircraft, Russia is going to do the same. 

That's kind of a big deal.  For example, AA9721 from DFW to ICN typically goes over the Russian Far East.  This is going to cause that flight to take a more southerly routing over Japan.  That will probably add an hour to the flight and increase the fuel burn (and hence the airline's cost).  And on some of these flights, it's going to mean that the flight is now going to need a refueling stop (ANC is about to get a whole lot busier).

It's not a crisis.  But it does require the airlines to do some planning.

The amount of people that don’t realize you fly over the North Pole to get to Asia, not across the Pacific is both an indictment of our Geography teaching AND the Mercator projection. 

[George 492]

1 minute ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Don't stop an enemy when they are making a big blunder and Putin made one. Russia is fucked for a long time even if sanctions are lifted.

-Ronald McDonald

Edited March 2, 2022 by George

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

Everyone wants to to talk about going.  No one is actually willing to go.  Honestly if someone nfelt that strongly about going right now.  What is stopping you.  

No, the kid is going. I ain't. I am too old and fat. 30 years ago I would have. But he is asking me to help him find someone who is willing to go, and I would be kind of thrust into the position of recruiter in that I would feel responsible for him while he is embedded over there. And there could be a day when I have grieving parents and siblings and girlfriends coming at me for hooking this kid up with this gig. 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

3 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I'm curious about something.   If the Russians targeted Pantex, what would the fallout be like throughout the Southwest and Midwest?

I mean it wouldn't be good.  The initial high airborne would be crazy  but the exclusion zone would probably be limited to the perimeter of the base when it came to long term.  And it's only from the Russian nuke.  Those bunkers are hardened enough to withstand a strike

[TexPx 2,323]

The Navy's Most Vital And Secretive Submarine Base Is In... Idaho?!?

By Tyler Rogoway  

The US Navy's submarine bases are some of the most high-security installations in the world, but one of their most important and shadowy submarine outposts is not located along the ocean, but rather in a lake in landlocked Idaho.
The Navy's Acoustic Research Detachment (ARD) at Bayview, Idaho, which is some 375 miles from the ocean, is where new submarine and surface ship shapes and subsystems are tested in a sub-scale environment that closely mimics the ocean. In other words, ARD Bayview is the Navy's lower-key subsurface Area 51, and massive Lake Pend Oreille is a water based, smaller, and more outsider friendly Nellis Range Complex.
The lake's depth (it's deeper than Loch Ness at about 1150 feet), large size, clear water and quiet conditions provided by steep tree-lined shores and a flat muddy bottom, along with a constant chilly temperature under 100 feet, are all key factors that have made it such an attractive testing location for the US Navy since WWII. Also, the lake stays remarkably calm for its size, allowing for fantastic testing conditions.

I’ve been sailing on that lake. Beautiful area.

[The Dog 44,051]

7 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I'm curious about something.   If the Russians targeted Pantex, what would the fallout be like throughout the Southwest and Midwest?

It would go straight to Oklahoma because OU sucks.

[pops 6,985]

1 hour ago, TexPx said:

Pend Orreille?

Base is in Bayview. And the lake is pronounced pon der ay up here. 

[Snake Diggity 4,624]

The Red Cross needs to be preparing to bring humanitarian aid to these surrounded cities and if the Russians don’t let them that’s the type of heinous shit that should cause the entire world to be ok with escalating.  If the motherfuckers are gonna starve hundreds of thousands of people then what threshold remains?

[Grande Mart 514]

2 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Well my family’s place has been offered (no joke if that goes down.) doesn’t matter if you don’t like me. It’s there if that goes down. It’s about 12 miles from Claude, Texas. 

 

Might want to mention that Claude is about 20 miles downwind of Pantex when that North wind kicks in.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Grande Mart

[Prepuce of Doom 21,073]

4 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

No, the kid is going. I ain't. I am too old and fat. 30 years ago I would have. But he is asking me to help him find someone who is willing to go, and I would be kind of thrust into the position of recruiter in that I would feel responsible for him while he is embedded over there. And there could be a day when I have grieving parents and siblings and girlfriends coming at me for hooking this kid up with this gig. 

Nothing good can come from being the one to affirmatively facilitate a kid wandering around a war zone with a camera. 

[MillerEP 30,455]

Looks like the reality of what's going on there is making its way around the Russian Propaganda. 

[FartingMonk 3,606]

4 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

No, the kid is going. I ain't. I am too old and fat. 30 years ago I would have. But he is asking me to help him find someone who is willing to go, and I would be kind of thrust into the position of recruiter in that I would feel responsible for him while he is embedded over there. And there could be a day when I have grieving parents and siblings and girlfriends coming at me for hooking this kid up with this gig. 

Oh I wasn't talking about you.  It was a general talk.  So many people non social media saying I would go fight.  Well there's an open invitation.  Do it.  As for your kids friends put on a GoPro.  You're a journalist.

[Nivek 16,930]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

So, y'all know the countless posts here reminding y'all to take reports with a grain of salt?

Take this one with one of those ridiculous himalayan salt lamps of salt:

I'd love it to be true.  But that is at the top of the "too good to be true" list, so slow your roll.

I have two of those.  Well, rather my wife has 2 of those.  sigh..... 

[Hefeweizen 5,321]

Heartbreaking and horrifying.  There are also cancer patients that couldn’t be evacuated that are going to turn into casualties.  Brutal fucking reading the “unforeseen side effects” of this invasion.

[Macanudo 12,978]

1 minute ago, Grande Mart said:

My want to mention that Claude is about 20 miles downwind of Pantex when that North wind kicks in.

Which means it smells like money when the wind blows in from the SW out of Hereford.

[Viper 12,109]

31 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

How realistic is this?  They've having trouble now.  

I'm assuming the Ukrainians are out in the field with anti-tank missiles.  Start picking through the siege. 

Also, I think if there are millions of people dying, we'll get involved with air power.

Could something like the Berlin Airlift be done?

[InkaUtexas 25,940]

19 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

My son's best army buddy just texted me wanting to know if I could help him find a kid journalist to embed in their unit of American legionnaires. I don't know any candidates off the top of my head because I am an old now, but I know there are probably ten thousand young journalists who would leap at the chance. Dilemma is what if something happens to them, and I am the guy who hooked it up?

Suck it up and outsource it to a Ukrainian. They actually are damn good in the field. Once you take one of these assignments you know the risk. FAFO. 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

I’m thinking the off-ramp they will try to get Russia to take and save face will be a UN peace keeping force?

[BamaATL 16,593]

Reading elsewhere that the Slovenian consulate was hit in Kyiv.  Not quite a article 5 trigger, but close if true.

[UpperWestside 6,163]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

That seems like alot.

Well it’s not 801, but it’ll do. 
 

On a serious note I am in awe of what they are doing. An entire country that is mobilized for war and doing it so they can remain free. We better be giving those men and women whatever they request in the way of weapons.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

 

[DaysOff 7,951]

It's not that.  It's all about giving the American airlines time to figure out new routings and scheduling.
We have a lot of flights from the United States to East Asia that currently go through Russian airspace.  As soon as we close our airspace to Russian aircraft, Russia is going to do the same. 
That's kind of a big deal.  For example, AA9721 from DFW to ICN typically goes over the Russian Far East.  This is going to cause that flight to take a more southerly routing over Japan.  That will probably add an hour to the flight and increase the fuel burn (and hence the airline's cost).  And on some of these flights, it's going to mean that the flight is now going to need a refueling stop (ANC is about to get a whole lot busier).
It's not a crisis.  But it does require the airlines to do some planning.

We're canceling SFO-DEL AND EWR-BOM for now. Just doesn't work without clipping commie airspace.

[FartingMonk 3,606]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Reading elsewhere that the Slovenian consulate was hit in Kyiv.  Not quite a article 5 trigger, but close if true.

You trigger article 5 when NATO wants to trigger article 5.  The Slovenian embassy hopefully has been fully evacuated.  The embassy abandoned.  At that point.  It becomes building in Kiev.

[TaxMaster 6]

15 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I'm curious about something.   If the Russians targeted Pantex, what would the fallout be like throughout the Southwest and Midwest?

I don’t think you have to worry about Pantex getting hit. If it comes to the point where Russia launches nukes at America, it’s mutually assured destruction. You don’t need to target a nuclear assembly/disassembly plant if no one is alive after the opening salvos. 

[Brisketexan 105,139]

Breaking News:  Onlyfans has changed their colors to yellow and blue in support

I’m waiting for the news that “content creators” are using special yellow and blue dildos in solidarity with Ukraine or some shit like that. And there’s a 100% chance of that happening.

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You trigger article 5 when NATO wants to trigger article 5.  The Slovenian embassy hopefully has been fully evacuated.  The embassy abandoned.  At that point.  It becomes building in Kiev.

I would presume that it was empty, and have seen nothing that confirms or denies this.  I'm to the point of pics or it didn't happen sort of thinking.  So everything with a big grain of salt at this point.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

And coming from Erdogan of all people, just fucking weird.  It's Putin with a smaller dick, if that's possible.  Just fucking weird, I guess his upshot would be protection of some sort against an uprising?

When you find out the dude you've been flirting with is a paper tiger and seek the better protection.

Edited March 2, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Trey3216 15,346]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

I wonder how the street fighting is going to look in the day time with the city they just took.

I mean, what can a poor boy do?  When the Red Army is standing at the door, and wants to paint it black with death, either gimme shelter or tumble the dice and Let it Bleed.  I mean, you can’t always get what you want out of situations like this.   When time is not on your side, you gotta scrape that shit right off your shoe.   

[Born to Run 6,569]

I don't wear condoms, fixed the gliche, happy with one kid. What's the point here, what's your point?

[Born to Run 6,569]

I can see the Dixie Dog in Wolfforth.

Ah, well, play on player. Can't deny a man good eats out on the llano.

[Hermanator 7,050]

35 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I'm curious about something.   If the Russians targeted Pantex, what would the fallout be like throughout the Southwest and Midwest?

They would also target Los Alamos amongst other locations in the region so we'd all be fucked. No use worrying about it because if it happens life is over for us all

[Bevo 13,577]

2 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

44 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't wear condoms, fixed the gliche, happy with one kid. What's the point here, what's your point?

I was looking for a condom gif because "Nicole" alone in the mountains and this is the first one that came up - I couldn't google the subject well, though, because patients and staff.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Russia lost what 7-8 million soldiers in WW2? I think people are overhyping the 5,000 killed so far. 

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

This tweet in particular is interesting from Rubio. It seems understood that the messaging he's been putting out is agreed upon by more people than just Rubio. So whats the point of this tweet if not to start the debate? Our intelligence has been dead nuts on, so presumably they expect a "medieval siege" to be the plan. 

We've sanctioned just about everything, so what other options are there? Assassinate Putin? Try and stage a Russian coupe? I just doubt the rest of the world will sit back and watch him murder tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. We will have to deal with this Russian fuckstick sooner or later, as he has crossed a line where his only options moving forward are to escalate. 

We would completely lock them out of everything. All carve outs gone. No oil and gas, nada.

 

Then he might drop a tactical or more than likely cyber attack against Europe and the US, and so then the CIA might step in

Edited March 2, 2022 by Grade of D as in David

[Born to Run 6,569]

Which means it smells like money when the wind blows in from the SW out of Hereford.

I grew up in construction in SE Texas. Smells like money equals asphalt. Smells like wasted money Smells like horse shit.

Shoveled both.

[Aqua Buddha 14,596]

37 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

In a sense, sorta both.  My understanding is the Ukrainians are starting to run low on heavy munitions, and other fighting supplies, and the Russians are eventually going to unfuck their supply issues.  
 

But on the OTOH, with NATO basically supplying endless amounts of weapons for an insurgent action, this thing can just grind on indefinitely in the country side. Also, I’m not sure how the Russians are going to get the Ukrainian farmers to plant in the spring.  

Why we just get involved and kicked some Russian ass?

Errbody by like "We can't make Putin mad."  So what if we did?  Not one single person besides him wants this to happen right now.  This isn't the old Soviet Union.  Kick his bitch ass in the Ukraine and didn't let him intimidate people just because he has nukes.  He ain't gonna use them.

We could destroy that caravan tonight and it would billions of dollars and thousands of lives.