Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[SL Xpress 7518]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Zelenskys nuclear videos last night were just that…a way to get the west involved in this mess. He spread panic. It’s why he wants to constantly close off Ukrainian air space, so we show up to the fight.


I agree with SL…this will not be occupied by Russians, ever. Not now. It’ll be a civil war. Whatever’s worth it to Ukrainians to keep fighting for, again like you said-not me to decide. But I know we’ll be sending aid, relief in the billions, probably trillions, because of this mess. By then Kyiv will probably be straight from an alien invasion movie.

And everybody important to you is dead or displaced that you’ll never see again.

Well, it won’t be trillions. 

[TwiceHorn 31587]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Are they going to be leveling the southern areas with naval guns? Because they don’t have any battleships. If they’re not using missiles or land based artillery, I don’t think they’ll be leveling much with just their ships. Especially anything not right on the coast. 

And I don’t agree on the impact of a no fly zone. It would be huge for a number of reasons. But it’s moot. It won’t happen. (I wonder if me saying this could be a drinking game - a dangerous drinking game).

Yeah, I no longer have a good feel for the capability of naval artillery.  I feel like modern warships aren't made for shore bombardment anymore.  There's no 16-inch, 12-gun salvos out there anymore.

[TXSG8R 3362]

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Nice avatar

I had it first!  

[Buzzrock 14950]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

The US offered to evacuate Zelensky and he told them no. A small Ukrainian border patrol contingent told a Russian warship to fuck off. A little old lady walked up to a Russian soldier, handed him some sunflower seeds, then told him to keep them so when he dies on Ukrainian soil sunflowers will grow from his lifeless corpse. 

We’ve seen footage of countless groups of I don’t give a fuck Ukrainians walking up to tanks and APCs to tell the Russians to go back home. 

We’ve seen multiple sports and entertainment stars from the country drop everything to return to Ukraine to fight. 

Putin’s forces aren’t numerous enough. Right now he has 3 soldiers on the ground for every 1000 Ukrainians inside the country and just outside still ready to be deployed. That’s woefully low. The javelins and stingers being supplied are outstanding anti-tank/anti air single soldier platforms. Urban warfare will be a nightmare. Russian soldiers are not motivated. They’re not being supplied well. Leadership and training is poor. Yes, they have overwhelming force at their disposal, but their ability to execute is severely lacking on multiple fronts. 

As far as the point, we’re all going to die. I can’t tell you what’s worth it to you. I can tell you if I was Ukrainian I’d be over there right now risking my life as well. I’m not and I won’t, but I certainly understand the mentality. 

Ugh, this is my big complaint about war coverage from corporate TV media and social media. It's far too easy to focus on these tiny anecdotes that tell you nothing about the bigger picture of the war. It's akin to propaganda. "Look at the little old lady with the sunflower seeds, Ukraine is going to win!" Sorry I'm not picking on you, because those anecdotes are irresistible and compelling because everyone loves an underdog and literally everyone is on the side of Ukraine (except maybe China). And the more of them you see the easier it is to convince yourself that Ukraine has a chance. But if you just turn off the TV and shut down Twitter and try to stick to the material developments (I've chosen WSJ and NPR for my updates, NPR has a great 5 minute news podcast every hour), Russia is continuing to gain ground. They've now captured their first major city and the nuclear plant. The Kyiv assault has stalled, but that doesn't mean it's over.

I hope you're right about Putin's forces. I disagree. I would LOVE to be wrong. And of course if any of us were Ukrainian it would be a different conversation, that's not even in question. The question is: would you send your children to fight and die for Ukraine right now?

[bolverk 29737]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

This whole thing is shitty. What were the guidelines putin wanted out of Ukraine before he started launching an invasion? Taking That deal seems a hell of a lot cheaper than the cost of human lives and infrastructure that’s already been lost.

No entry into NATO/Europe and the demilitarization of all former Warsaw Pact nation's in NATO.

[SL Xpress 7518]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

This whole thing is shitty. What were the guidelines putin wanted out of Ukraine before he started launching an invasion? Taking That deal seems a hell of a lot cheaper than the cost of human lives and infrastructure that’s already been lost.

NATO agrees to make guarantees they won’t expand. Ever. Ukraine gives up their military and installs a government friendlier to Russia. Ukraine promises to never join the EU. 

Basically Ukraine loses their sovereignty, with their every decision having to be passed through Putin for approval. 

Sure, it would have been cheaper. What’s a soul worth, anyway?

[Deej 76972]

Ukraine should just bend the knee to Putin so that a few people on this board can go about their lives feeling safe. 

"Hey, Ukraine, can you stop fighting for your continued existence please? It's making some guys on Surly uncomfortable."

[Handcruser 2805]

You tell me what’s better. Russian police state or what’s going on now and however the fuck the country will look 5-10-15-20 years from now.

obviously I don’t want escalation either but Ukraine will be rocks and debris when it’s done. So you get to fight and spend the rest of your life cleaning up this mess, because this’ll take decades

Right.

If you think the Russians invaded Texas and we’d say “well we’re going to lose so it would be better to live under Russian rule than die free” you’d be insane.

Texas would never do that. I don’t think Ukraine will either.

[NoName 16410]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm starting to think that Putin may not be the stable genius I was promised.

for most of his time in leadership going back decades he has been pretty stable and clear with what he is and isn't and what his goals are and aren't.

seeing that change, and seeing him handle something so major so poorly is weird...especially when he handled the Crimea/Donbas and South Ossetia/Abkhazia situations pretty well based on what his goals clearly were - and how well he handled the Chechnya situation (based on what "Russians" wanted/maximizing his popularity)

 

[F250 28826]

8 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

This whole thing is shitty. What were the guidelines putin wanted out of Ukraine before he started launching an invasion? Taking That deal seems a hell of a lot cheaper than the cost of human lives and infrastructure that’s already been lost.

[SL Xpress 7518]

6 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Ugh, this is my big complaint about war coverage from corporate TV media and social media. It's far too easy to focus on these tiny anecdotes that tell you nothing about the bigger picture of the war. It's akin to propaganda. "Look at the little old lady with the sunflower seeds, Ukraine is going to win!" Sorry I'm not picking on you, because those anecdotes are irresistible and compelling because everyone loves an underdog and literally everyone is on the side of Ukraine (except maybe China). And the more of them you see the easier it is to convince yourself that Ukraine has a chance. But if you just turn off the TV and shut down Twitter and try to stick to the material developments (I've chosen WSJ and NPR for my updates, NPR has a great 5 minute news podcast every hour), Russia is continuing to gain ground. They've now captured their first major city and the nuclear plant. The Kyiv assault has stalled, but that doesn't mean it's over.

I hope you're right about Putin's forces. I disagree. I would LOVE to be wrong. And of course if any of us were Ukrainian it would be a different conversation, that's not even in question. The question is: would you send your children to fight and die for Ukraine right now?

Don’t take my word for it. Listen to this 1 hour panel conversation I posted a couple of hours ago basically echoing what I’m saying here:

 

 

[Longhornlove 4899]

9 hours ago, Hermanator said:

The notion that the Biden administration would say "hey Lindsey, take your dainty bitch ass to Twitter and beg the Russians to assassinate Putin for me" is fucking laughable

True but Biden himself has called Putin a thug, tyrant, outcast and a killer on live TV.

[TXSG8R 3362]

5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Are they going to be leveling the southern areas with naval guns? Because they don’t have any battleships. If they’re not using missiles or land based artillery, I don’t think they’ll be leveling much with just their ships. Especially anything not right on the coast. 

And I don’t agree on the impact of a no fly zone. It would be huge for a number of reasons. But it’s moot. It won’t happen. (I wonder if me saying this could be a drinking game - a dangerous drinking game).

I’m ignorant on squid warfare, especially on the Russian side. I thought I had read reports of them shooting land based targets with their boats. 

[KYHorn 17206]

Based on my cursory reading of this article below and no prior knowledge, it seems feasible to give the Ukrainians some Patriot Missile Defense Systems. We don't even have to enact a no-fly zone. It's just giving defensive equipment to Ukraine. Perhaps the main issue (I'm fully open to the possibility of many other issues here- just throwing this out there) is the technology being captured?

https://science.howstuffworks.com/patriot-missile.htm

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

7 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

What’s a soul worth, anyway?

 

[SimonBolivar 10961]

Daaaamn

[TwiceHorn 31587]

1 minute ago, KYHorn said:

Based on my cursory reading of this article below and no prior knowledge, it seems feasible to give the Ukrainians some Patriot Missile Defense Systems. We don't even have to enact a no-fly zone. It's just giving defensive equipment to Ukraine. Perhaps the main issue (I'm fully open to the possibility of many other issues here- just throwing this out there) is the technology being captured?

https://science.howstuffworks.com/patriot-missile.htm

Patriots have never been specifically mentioned, but AA weapons have been sent to Ukraine since ~2018.  I'm fairly sure that means something beyond 40mm cannon.

[Trey3216 15378]

 

 

[Nicole44 22079]

Hopefully the stingers and drones and javelins keep pouring in. Incredible how many people on Twitter are tweeting at Zelenskyy to resign and surrender to Putin. Fuck that. I’ve said this numerous times before I started dropping acid and doing opium and antibiotics and box pounding: by choosing to stay and fight and lead Zelenskyy is making this incredibly difficult for the world to look away. His resolve has only increased the World response. That and the fact that Putin is a danger to us all. That’s not rhetoric it’s facts. I’m not going to attack the positions I don’t agree with. I will just leave it to those who don’t agree with me to continue what some of y’all always do about my posts. Same shit different day. Slava Ukraini. Praying for a miracle. NATO did say that no NATO nation should supply planes or close the sky so that leaves some open territory if the Taliban or others want to step up.

[Buzzrock 14950]

21 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Besides, it's not your, mine, or even Biden's call. Continuing to fight is the decision of the Ukrainians and theirs alone.

Fuck. I realized I had done that as I was hitting enter.

[BabaYaga 15331]

16 hours ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Except of course they actually had boots on the ground in Vietnam, and possibly pilots on the air

Which we all "knew", but had trouble proving.  It's a game of cat & mouse, but overt NATO pilots, etc sends a clear message of escalation that nobody wants right now.  

We very well might have "advisors" smuggled in as "volunteers" for the Legion.  That would not surprise me in the least, especially agency ground branch guys.  As for pilots, if you had NATO pilots, the carry the Vietnam analogy, they'd be in MIGs posing as Uke pilots, not in Western planes. 

Vietnam was have escalated instantly had modern Russian planes with Russian Air force markings, with Russian pilots entered the sky's to create a "no fly" zone over Hanoi....which is what many here are advocating for.  

Edited March 4, 2022 by BabaYaga

[TwiceHorn 31587]

Just now, SimonBolivar said:

Daaaamn

I saw elsewhere that Micorosoft was also providing extensive "cyberdefense" support to western governments, starting several days ago.

[NoName 16410]

3 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Based on my cursory reading of this article below and no prior knowledge, it seems feasible to give the Ukrainians some Patriot Missile Defense Systems. We don't even have to enact a no-fly zone. It's just giving defensive equipment to Ukraine. Perhaps the main issue (I'm fully open to the possibility of many other issues here- just throwing this out there) is the technology being captured?

https://science.howstuffworks.com/patriot-missile.htm

dude. the Russians freaked the fuck out about the missile defense base in Poland: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/world/europe/poland-missile-base-russia-ukraine.html

"giving" the Ukrainians a missile defense system of any kind is tantamount to entering a world-wide war from the Russian's perspective.

the odds of that happening are less than the odds of NATO enforcing a no fly zone across the entire Ukraine.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Incredible how many people on Twitter are tweeting at Zelenskyy to resign and surrender to Putin. Fuck that.

Good thing Twitter blocks all those bad actors, right?

[wildcat09 29432]

I think the size of the invasion pretty clearly proves that Russia never had any intention of reaching any sort of diplomatic deal with Ukraine. The idea that Ukraine could’ve negotiated to just give up the breakaway oblasts or for something similar is absurd. The only “deal” Russia was going to agree to was the surrender of the Ukrainian state.

[BabaYaga 15331]

1 minute ago, NoName said:

dude. the Russians freaked the fuck out about the missile defense base in Poland: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/world/europe/poland-missile-base-russia-ukraine.html

"giving" the Ukrainians a missile defense system of any kind is tantamount to entering a world-wide war from the Russian's perspective.

the odds of that happening are less than the odds of NATO enforcing a no fly zone across the entire Ukraine.

Yep.  I posted that article many pages back.  MAD only "works" when both sides are at a comparatively similar disadvantage.  I can kill you.  You can kill me.  Let's not.

But when that symmetry shifts (think Hunt for Red October) and one side has a clear advantage, mitigating MAD, that is where often conflict enters.  Putin, I think, views those missiles as just such a thing, as we did in Cuba.  

[Buzzrock 14950]

23 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Oh, complete surrender to Putin's demands. Great. No more NATO. Also, whenever Putin demands something else, I guess we got to give in because it'll be cheaper. Whatever you say comrade. 

Shitpost

[SL Xpress 7518]

Just now, TXSG8R said:

I’m ignorant on squid warfare, especially on the Russian side. I thought I had read reports of them shooting land based targets with their boats. 

The Russian side is better than the US. We’ve basically given up on naval based artillery. And for good reason. Under what scenario would we use it any more? My ship had a little 5” pop gun, but it was old as the hills. 

Per ship the Russians still have way more guns than the US, but even then, their Navy is not good, and they don’t have the firepower of their land based artillery or their missiles. And if you get out of sight, they don’t have the range or fire control to be effective.

I will say I do not consider myself an expert on this stuff, but I feel comfortable in saying that. 

[Nicole44 22079]

 

[TwiceHorn 31587]

6 minutes ago, NoName said:

dude. the Russians freaked the fuck out about the missile defense base in Poland: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/world/europe/poland-missile-base-russia-ukraine.html

"giving" the Ukrainians a missile defense system of any kind is tantamount to entering a world-wide war from the Russian's perspective.

the odds of that happening are less than the odds of NATO enforcing a no fly zone across the entire Ukraine.

The other thing is, I'm not sure we want Patriots where enemies can easily get hold of them.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

I don't understand anyone going with the Clayton Williams' attitude that Russia will ultimately win so Ukrainians should just accept it. There are times in life that you have to take a stand even if the chance of winning is low in the short term. And sometimes you have to be willing to take a defeat for the right cause.

And Ukraine will eventually win. Occupiers (almost) never win in the long run.

[Buzzrock 14950]

19 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

NATO agrees to make guarantees they won’t expand. Ever. Ukraine gives up their military and installs a government friendlier to Russia. Ukraine promises to never join the EU. 

Basically Ukraine loses their sovereignty, with their every decision having to be passed through Putin for approval. 

Sure, it would have been cheaper. What’s a soul worth, anyway?

If you assume I'm right about Ukraine's military chances, #2 and #3 are going to happen anyway. The only question is what will the human cost be. As for #1, I haven't seen that demand (NATO can never expand anywhere ever), got a link? I've only seen that Ukraine can never join NATO. Which, again, is also going to happen anyway if Russia wins the war.

Once Putin is dead then all this stuff is back on the table. He's 69. He probably won't last 10 more years, likely much less, and possibly much much less if someone on the inside gets to him.

[Buzzrock 14950]

19 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Don’t take my word for it. Listen to this 1 hour panel conversation I posted a couple of hours ago basically echoing what I’m saying here:

 

 

Will do after work. For now I'll fuck off to the unpopular opinions thread. Thank you to everyone who is contributing to the discussion and offering good sources of info. Everyone else can lick my unshowered taint.

[SL Xpress 7518]

1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

If you assume I'm right about Ukraine's military chances, #2 and #3 are going to happen anyway. The only question is what will the human cost be. As for #1, I haven't seen that demand (NATO can never expand anywhere ever), got a link? I've only seen that Ukraine can never join NATO. Which, again, is also going to happen anyway if Russia wins the war.

Once Putin is dead then all this stuff is back on the table. He's 69. He probably won't last 10 more years, likely much less, and possibly much much less if someone on the inside gets to him.

But you’re not right.

I don’t have a link. 

[wildcat09 29432]

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

The other thing is, I'm not sure we want Patriots where enemies can easily get hold of them.  

Fair, though Russia doesn’t seem to be accomplishing much at the moment, and none of it easily.

I’m still stunned by the fact that they just let the tires on a ton of their vehicles basically rot. Russia must thank god every day that they’ve got the best home field advantage, because they really suck at road games.

[Trey3216 15378]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't understand anyone going with the Clayton Williams' attitude that Russia will ultimately win so Ukrainians should just accept it. There are times in life that you have to take a stand even if the chance of winning is low in the short term. And sometimes you have to be willing to take a defeat for the right cause.

And Ukraine will eventually win. Occupiers (almost) never win in the long run.

It's baffling...the lack of perspective some of the posts on here.  

[Parliament 14344]

15 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Daaaamn

Can they pull licenses and tokens and passwords and such?  Brick some servers?

[Nicole44 22079]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't understand anyone going with the Clayton Williams' attitude that Russia will ultimately win so Ukrainians should just accept it. There are times in life that you have to take a stand even if the chance of winning is low in the short term. And sometimes you have to be willing to take a defeat for the right cause.

And Ukraine will eventually win. Occupiers (almost) never win in the long run.

as long as Ukrainians believe they can win…that’s all that matters

[MNLonghornFUKM 8823]

 
 

No biggie. As long as they don’t bend the knee

[SL Xpress 7518]

17 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

I would just about sell my soul to be able to go back and have him replace Mack Brown. 

[TwiceHorn 31587]

17 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

The Russian side is better than the US. We’ve basically given up on naval based artillery. And for good reason. Under what scenario would we use it any more? My ship had a little 5” pop gun, but it was old as the hills. 

Per ship the Russians still have way more guns than the US, but even then, their Navy is not good, and they don’t have the firepower of their land based artillery or their missiles. And if you get out of sight, they don’t have the range or fire control to be effective.

I will say I do not consider myself an expert on this stuff, but I feel comfortable in saying that. 

It's funny, in the scheme of naval artillery, a 5" gun is regarded as a "pop gun."  But that's a 127mm cannon, which is about as big as most land forces use, and with arguably better fire control than terrestrial artillery.

Destroyers with 5/38 armament were extensively used for shore bombardment in the PTO and supporting the D-Day invasion.  I don't think the recipients of those shells thought of them as pop guns.

Turns out, the Russian Kirov class "battlecruisers," at 28000 tons are their biggest warships, and have exactly one 5-inch gun.

The Atlant class of CGs has a single twin 5-inch mount.

The destroyers look to have 2 twin 5-inch mounts.

So, while a 5-inch gun is probably a pretty formidable shore-bombardment option, it doesn't look like the rooskies have enough tubes to put down a lot of fire.

Edited March 4, 2022 by TwiceHorn

[Snake Diggity 4628]

Possible end game if Putin is sane:

Russia gets:

Ukraine officially recognizes Crimea as Russian.

UN installs monitors in Donbas.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2035.

West lifts some sanctions with a path to lift remaining sanctions once reparations and nuke reductions are complete.

 

Ukraine/West gets:

Russia pulls out completely from Ukraine (including Donbas) immediately.

Russia pays full reparations to completely rebuild everything they destroyed plus pain and suffering.

Russia agrees to eliminate 3/4 of its nuclear arsenal (and agrees to UN verification of that).

Russia agrees to increased UN oversight in their elections.

 

[NoName 16410]

3 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Incredible how many people on Twitter are tweeting at Zelenskyy to resign and surrender to Putin.

i'm sure that they are 100% real people using their name and 4 digits of numbers and not at all trolls and bots

just did a 2 second search and in english at least, the only folks i see tweeting at him to resign are some PMC wannabe dude, a handful of accounts with less than 20 followers, some lady whose entire personality seems to be wrapped up in brexit

this is a good tool btw: War in Ukraine – Alliance For Securing Democracy (gmfus.org)

Hamilton 2.0 Dashboard – Alliance For Securing Democracy (gmfus.org)

[texastough 1129]

7 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

 

I’ve seen casualty stats but at this point have the Ukrainians out out numbers of Russians who have surrendered or were captured?

[Nicole44 22079]

 

[The Ace of Aces 5194]

26 minutes ago, NoName said:

for most of his time in leadership going back decades he has been pretty stable and clear with what he is and isn't and what his goals are and aren't.

seeing that change, and seeing him handle something so major so poorly is weird...especially when he handled the Crimea/Donbas and South Ossetia/Abkhazia situations pretty well based on what his goals clearly were - and how well he handled the Chechnya situation (based on what "Russians" wanted/maximizing his popularity)

 

Strong disagree. I posted a long rant a few days about but basically Putin has never had any strategy. He acts without thinking and then cleans up the mess it creates - his KGB training taught this and he never has strayed from it. I know several who have dealt with him directly and .. he's not that bright. He's incredibly skillful as a politician and mob boss, but a genius he ain't. 

This has been coming for a decade. Why 2014 was more of a half-ass try will always boggle my mind. 

Edit: I misread this my bad - I somehow read you were saying he was smart. He hasn't been that stable but by Russian standards he's fairly straight. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by The Ace of Aces

[Dahobbs 17703]

19 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Shitpost

How is that a shitpost? Putin asked for stopping NATO expansion and demilitarizing existing parts of NATO. If the United States or the bulk of NATO supported that, NATO would blow up. And then Putin would invade anyway. And the Ukrainians would fight anyway. They would just be a lot less effective and die a lot quicker. It would have been win, win, win for Putin. And I'll guarantee you he wouldn't have stopped there. But if it is easier for you, I guess we should do it.  Your opinion is shit. Deal with it. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Dahobbs

[Eastwood 4394]

I don't understand anyone going with the Clayton Williams' attitude that Russia will ultimately win so Ukrainians should just accept it. There are times in life that you have to take a stand even if the chance of winning is low in the short term. And sometimes you have to be willing to take a defeat for the right cause.
And Ukraine will eventually win. Occupiers (almost) never win in the long run.

There's a good number of posters here that you wouldn't want to share a foxhole with. Football board out front should have told you.

[Nicole44 22079]

Law of averages…geez. 
 

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

37 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm starting to think that Putin may not be the stable genius I was promised.

What sucks about most people that end up in power. What is good for the average citizen is the last thing on the list of what they actually care about. Never know what one of these power hungry monsters will do when backed into a corner. 

Even if Putin flattens 50% of Ukraine and takes out most of their military I think it will be hard to say Russia won. Their economy is in ruins and pockets of insurgents will still pop up for years around Ukraine and take out Russian assets. Think we would need to look 30 or more years into the future and Putin is dead before it might look like a Russia win.