Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BabaYaga 15301]

Just now, The Dog said:

This is the "NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence" - not NATO itself.

NATO "light".....;)

[South Austin 52521]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

OK, this is fucking glorious and I want one!

 

Tank go boom!  That's badass.

[Foosters 17858]

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean I know we cheerlead this stuff and all on this thread but there is nothing more annoying than self-important/"look at me" law students/young lawyers. Especially the Ivy League type. (Old Man Lawyer Rant)

I get that, but this isn't a roll-your-eyes stunt over the firm's insistence on using on non-Fair Trade Coffee in the break room. 

[Foosters 17858]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wait until he finds out what (non-surly) lawyers really do...

actually work?

[TwiceHorn 31507]

49 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Estonia has a lot of planes?

Almost none. I assume that is a reference to NATO.

[dcar00 14289]

8 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

It’s not going to be a “peace making body.” It’s a dialogue body. It’s simply a mechanism to keep lines of communication open. Peace making requires an enforcement mechanism. There isn’t a powerful sovereign nation on earth who is going to give up their ability to make decisions as a country to a third party organization. Which is the reason for the security council. It’s not designed to have agreement. It’s designed to make sure the most powerful countries on the planet all have a veto power in terms of being told what to do. 

It’s actually a remarkable organization in the sense that it exists at all. It’s very limited in what it can functionally accomplish. But having a place where nations can go and feel like they have some kind of voice is actually a very powerful tool for world stability. 

It's corrupt to the core and has contributed very little for "world peace".  It's not very remarkable at all.  

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wait until he finds out what (non-surly) lawyers really do...

Get revenge on mesothelioma?

[956 Worldwide 34727]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Humans are so silly. The premise of whether Putin goes nuclear is based on technicalities of written documents? If US or NATO enforce a "no fly zone" or send troops, he'll use nukes. But as long as they're just giving them tanks, planes, weapons, ammo, etc., he'll hold back. I think the second Putin thinks he might lose he'll go nuclear regardless of whether western help is direct or "indirect." I'm still not sure how supplying equipment is indirect, but again, humans are silly.

Red lines and boundaries are important where nukes are involved. Russia, as the weaker conventional power who also is also the “instigator” can be expected to resist clarifying what those lines are.  They know once that happens, we will walk right up to them.

So what we are doing is helping set the red lines for him and thereby reducing the risk of miscalculation. In effect- “if we were you, we’d consider troops on the ground or imposition of no-fly to be unacceptably hostile and deserving of full-scale war with us.” 
 

Unsaid— so long as we’re not doing that and are below that threshold, we don’t think you should get an itchy trigger finger.  So chill the fuck out and don’t try to bluff us into believing you’re ready to suicide bomb.

If you won’t set out the “rules” then we will do it for you.

Deterrence theory is a bitch when it’s no longer just in a book from 1985. 

[South Austin 52521]

25 minutes ago, Foosters said:

SIAP. Harvard Law 2L quits his summer associate position over firm's refusal to sever financial ties with Russia:

https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2022/03/02/harvard-law-2l-walks-away-from-summer-associate-position-to-protest-law-firms-work-in-russia-389-158019/?slreturn=20220204114714

Not exactly a bold move given that a Harvard law student has a lot more choices in the job market than students of most other law schools.  But you go lead the charge, Poindexter.

[StruggleBus 3922]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Not exactly a bold move given that a Harvard law student has a lot more choices in the job market than students of most other law schools.  But you go lead the charge, Poindexter.

Yeah, but he's still a lawyer. Which means everyone hates him. Because lawyers are the worst. 

[dcar00 14289]

14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let's talk about whether Putin really was acting as a strategist and master chess player back when he took Crimea in 2014 or invaded parts of Georgia in 2008-- because I do not believe he was.  Instead, he set himself on a path than almost inexorably led to where we are today and blew up bridges behind him.  I am tired of the "offramp" talk, but to push the analogy-- he has driven into a cul-de-sac and the only way out is to turn around or destroy a house and hope you can plow through to another street.  

It's important to see what the 2008 "Bucharest Pledge" really was-- it was a no-time frame "promise" that Georgia and Ukraine would get into NATO.  Now, NATO can do expansion pretty damn fast when it wants to, which Putin had seen a couple times since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  He also, as the head of a formidable foreign intelligence apparatus, was clearly aware that multiple NATO states had to be prodded and poked into making a toothless promise and would have been happy to continue kicking the can down the road as long as there was a viable reason.  And buddy, Ukraine could ALWAYS be counted on to give you reasons to doubt its competence or readiness to enter the Alliance. 

By fundamentally misreading Maidan in 2014-- accepting it as a foreign-backed coup designed to install a hostile regime-- Putin closed off the entirely more sensible opportunity of letting the anger burn off, letting Ukrainians fight amongst themselves and steal from each other, and most likely swinging back to Russia after one or two more cycles just like what happened after the 2004 Orange Revolution.  He could taken plenty of over and covert steps to encourage this process along and could have easily cast himself as the more sensible, richer, stable party and given Berlin and Paris all the reason in the world to keep integrating with Moscow, slowrolling Ukraine into NATO, and generally letting Ukraine be Ukraine-- divided, unreliable, and neither here nor there.  And by almost any predictive measure, that's what would have happened.

Instead he annexed Crimea and gained almost nothing but national pride.  He started a war in the east and risked his credibility and prestige for some extraordinarily unreliable local friends that he never wanted anyway.  He pushed friendly NATO states into the unpleasant position of having, at least reluctantly, to routinely denounce Russian aggression and foreign policy as a matter of course.  He picked a battle of wills with the United States that was always unwinnable ("promise you won't ever try to be Ukraine's BFF!). And he ensured that generations of Ukrainians, no matter how corrupt or chaotic, would always be corrupt, chaotic, and relentlessly hostile to Russia. 

Maybe most importantly-- his only real move was to continue to ramp up tensions or aggressions, or to lose openly and publicly.  He decided for himself what "winning" should look like, told the world and the Russian people, and put himself in the position of going for the W or taking the L.  No more playing for the tie.  And it looks like he is taking the L. 

Good post.  begs some questions

What would the world consider an L?

What would Putin consider a W?

[SL Xpress 7516]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

It's corrupt to the core and has contributed very little for "world peace".  It's not very remarkable at all.  

It is corrupt. I find most bureaucracies are in one shape or another. I don’t agree that it’s unremarkable or that it doesn’t contribute to world peace. 

To me the problem lies in excessive expectations for what it can accomplish. Which is very little. But as an avenue for dialogue I think of it as extremely important. There are plenty of circumstances where personnel can be on the ground under the UN aegis and be way more effective than if they were operating under the flag of a sovereign nation. 

[South Austin 52521]

2 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Yeah, but he's still a lawyer. Which means everyone hates him. Because lawyers are the worst. 

I strenuously object!

[SL Xpress 7516]

Just now, dcar00 said:

Good post.  begs some questions

What would the world consider an L?

What would Putin consider a W?

1) nukes, an easy Putin victory

2) regime change in Ukraine with a ruling government aligned with Russia in the way Belarus is right now. 

[TexasEd 8067]

18 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Let's talk about whether Putin really was acting as a strategist and master chess player back when he took Crimea in 2014 or invaded parts of Georgia in 2008-- because I do not believe he was.  Instead, he set himself on a path than almost inexorably led to where we are today and blew up bridges behind him.  I am tired of the "offramp" talk, but to push the analogy-- he has driven into a cul-de-sac and the only way out is to turn around or destroy a house and hope you can plow through to another street.  

It's important to see what the 2008 "Bucharest Pledge" really was-- it was a no-time frame "promise" that Georgia and Ukraine would get into NATO.  Now, NATO can do expansion pretty damn fast when it wants to, which Putin had seen a couple times since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  He also, as the head of a formidable foreign intelligence apparatus, was clearly aware that multiple NATO states had to be prodded and poked into making a toothless promise and would have been happy to continue kicking the can down the road as long as there was a viable reason.  And buddy, Ukraine could ALWAYS be counted on to give you reasons to doubt its competence or readiness to enter the Alliance. 

By fundamentally misreading Maidan in 2014-- accepting it as a foreign-backed coup designed to install a hostile regime-- Putin closed off the entirely more sensible opportunity of letting the anger burn off, letting Ukrainians fight amongst themselves and steal from each other, and most likely swinging back to Russia after one or two more cycles just like what happened after the 2004 Orange Revolution.  He could taken plenty of over and covert steps to encourage this process along and could have easily cast himself as the more sensible, richer, stable party and given Berlin and Paris all the reason in the world to keep integrating with Moscow, slowrolling Ukraine into NATO, and generally letting Ukraine be Ukraine-- divided, unreliable, and neither here nor there.  And by almost any predictive measure, that's what would have happened.

Instead he annexed Crimea and gained almost nothing but national pride.  He started a war in the east and risked his credibility and prestige for some extraordinarily unreliable local friends that he never wanted anyway.  He pushed friendly NATO states into the unpleasant position of having, at least reluctantly, to routinely denounce Russian aggression and foreign policy as a matter of course.  He picked a battle of wills with the United States that was always unwinnable ("promise you won't ever try to be Ukraine's BFF!). And he ensured that generations of Ukrainians, no matter how corrupt or chaotic, would always be corrupt, chaotic, and relentlessly hostile to Russia. 

Maybe most importantly-- his only real move was to continue to ramp up tensions or aggressions, or to lose openly and publicly.  He decided for himself what "winning" should look like, told the world and the Russian people, and put himself in the position of going for the W or taking the L.  No more playing for the tie.  And it looks like he is taking the L. 

I agree that 2014 was the no going back step that led to this.  He should have taken the whole country then or even back in 2008 at the same time or before he invaded Georgia.

But the better choice was to let the Russian backlash die off and to paint the Western leaning leaders as no different or worse than the Russian leaning ones. 

[dcar00 14289]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

It is corrupt. I find most bureaucracies are in one shape or another. I don’t agree that it’s unremarkable or that it doesn’t contribute to world peace. 

To me the problem lies in excessive expectations for what it can accomplish. Which is very little. But as an avenue for dialogue I think of it as extremely important. There are plenty of circumstances where personnel can be on the ground under the UN aegis and be way more effective than if they were operating under the flag of a sovereign nation. 

Yes corrupt. I said very little contribution.  as an org it is bloated and what it does can be done in a smaller forum to limit the corruption.  It's pretty much worthless and inefficient as it exists today.  I understand that you think differently.

[OU Sucks 8883]

51 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Why are we burning these FSB assets? I get that it may cause some issues internally for Russia, but I feel like some discretion in the reporting is appropriate here. 

Fuck Chip Brown

[dcar00 14289]

2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

1) nukes, an easy Putin victory

2) regime change in Ukraine with a ruling government aligned with Russia in the way Belarus is right now. 

My first question is what would the world consider an L for Putin.

[TwiceHorn 31507]

16 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

OK, this is fucking glorious and I want one!

 

Damn, those things are effective.  Historically, a frontal shot on a tank was not a real good idea.

And, is that clearly a tank, or a turreted fighting vehicle?

[TexasEd 8067]

7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Yeah, but he's still a lawyer. Which means everyone hates him. Because lawyers are the worst. 

Layers named the derel are the worst.

[TexasHooch 5122]

22 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Interdasting - what's a contributing participant?  NATO padawan?

 

[956 Worldwide 34727]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Good post.  begs some questions

What would the world consider an L?

What would Putin consider a W?

The issue is that he keeps upping the threshold himself. 

Before 2014: Win is a Russia friendly government and slow-rolled or moribund NATO accession. Loss is real democratic governance, real progress to NATO.

After 2014: Win is acceptance of Crimea as Russian, revocation of Bucharest pledge, and Ukraine accepting the DPR and LPR as federal poison pills. Loss is giving back Crimea, abandoning the East, and the West holding firm.

Now: Win is the above plus recognition of the DPR and LPR plus his own handpicked government in Ukraine plus NATO back to 1997 borders in terms of military presence. And he’s said a loss is anything BUT that. 
 

So at each step— he’s made the win less achievable, the losses more painful, and the cost to Russia for either higher. 

[Skipper 6136]

4 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I get that, but this isn't a roll-your-eyes stunt over the firm's insistence on using on non-Fair Trade Coffee in the break room. 

Oh it's the type that will do that as well. And it's naive as fuck to think US firms with Moscow offices and cross-border transaction representation/active litigation can just shut all that off over night.    It's a bit more complicated than that.  Luckily my firm doesn't have a big Euro presence but for those that do it has to be a nightmare figuring out how to unwind everything (which is in process, lots of articles on it).  The firms that put out the early PR press releases "severing ties" almost certainly had much fewer ties to sever and likely not much active representation.

[Nivek 16946]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

I didn't really appreciate turbocharging at the time and thought it was an effort to make a 3.8L V6 into a 5L V8, basically.  Hell, I really haven't been a turbo convert untll the last couple of years.  And hp numbers at the time were unreliable.  But yeah, the V8s in the Olds and Chevys were pretty anemic and even an NA 3.8V6 was probably a better engine if you dyno'd it.  And turbocharge it, fuhgeddaboutit.  I think I have seen that the GN turbos and TTA were putting out substantially over 200hp and most 5LV8s were maybe good for 180, tops.

I think the V6 was just a better engine under the late 70s, early 80s conditions (high rear ends, emission controlled without "compensation," etc.).

/it wouldn't be surly without a completely irrelevant threadjack

I think the GN was successful mostly because they started deviating from the norm with it, getting rid of the distributor, putting the computer in more in charge, and of course fuel injection.   They really limited the performance of the vehicle with the factory 12 lbs of boost, which could be opened up to 16 lbs on pump gas,  and manipulating the timing via a chip swap changed the cars responsiveness dramatically.  The engineers that worked it did a really nice job on the engine, and then were hampered with the exhaust system a little beyond the catalytic convertor so traditional moves like swapping out headers really didn't help and often slowed the car down.  Fuel system was adequate into the 12s with only a slight fuel pressure regulator change.   The fun of this car was how well it transferred weight, kept traction, was a torque monster once the boost kicked in.   It wasn't as much as a high end horsepower like most assumed when associating turbo cars.   If I recall correctly the official numbers were 230hp/330 lb*ft of torque.   A simple chip and air filter change could bring it up to 300hp/400tq and drop it into the mid 13s. and low 13s with a cat-back exhaust.  

(Ah well, car talk is less depressing)

[BabaYaga 15301]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I strenuously object!

Well, there's another thing you and your mom do not have in common

[Wade 464]

11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Red lines and boundaries are important where nukes are involved. Russia, as the weaker conventional power who also is also the “instigator” can be expected to resist clarifying what those lines are.  They know once that happens, we will walk right up to them.

So what we are doing is helping set the red lines for him and thereby reducing the risk of miscalculation. In effect- “if we were you, we’d consider troops on the ground or imposition of no-fly to be unacceptably hostile and deserving of full-scale war with us.” 
 

Unsaid— so long as we’re not doing that and are below that threshold, we don’t think you should get an itchy trigger finger.  So chill the fuck out and don’t try to bluff us into believing you’re ready to suicide bomb.

If you won’t set out the “rules” then we will do it for you.

Deterrence theory is a bitch when it’s no longer just in a book from 1985. 

Excellent post.  I grew up during some of the coldest years of the cold war.  Great care was taken in signaling intent of moves that would in any way impact the Soviets so that nothing would be misconstrued and caused escalation of tensions.  As cold as all those years were, I don't remember any time as dangerous as this particular time and situation.

[956 Worldwide 34727]

1980s Buick talk not going away.

[SL Xpress 7516]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

My first question is what would the world consider an L for Putin.

I can’t speak for the world, but I feel like it’s alreafy an L. I don’t believe he’ll recover from this. He’ll either die in office or be killed, but he’ll never enjoy the stature he once did on the world stage, and his position as the leader of Russia will never be as secure as it was the day before the invasion. 

This will be his legacy. 

[South Austin 52521]

4 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Ukraine:  "A crummy Contributing Participant?  That son of a bitch!"

Edited March 4, 2022 by South Austin

[Shady Ray 1633]

China pulls Premier League TV coverage over shows of solidarity with Ukraine
League plans gestures of support this weekend
IQIYI Sports informs league it will not broadcast games

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/mar/04/china-pulls-premier-league-tv-coverage-over-shows-of-solidarity-with-ukraine

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

I can’t speak for the world, but I feel like it’s alreafy an L. I don’t believe he’ll recover from this. He’ll either die in office or be killed, but he’ll never enjoy the stature he once did on the world stage, and his position as the leader of Russia will never be as secure as it was the day before the invasion. 

This will be his legacy. 

Yep. Even if he took and held Ukraine, sanctions aren't going anywhere. And Europe has learned that they need to be as independent from Russia as quick as possible.

I also guarantee that 100% of the oligarchs are furious with this situation, and personal their sanctions are going nowhere. 

Perhaps Putin fully survives this but he's damaged goods in many ways.

[CooterBrown 18015]

Russia just passed a "fake news" law that makes spreading "fake news" about the military punishable with up to 15 years in prison.

So, that’s how they’re getting Putin out of office.

[Foggy Notion 1202]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

China pulls Premier League TV coverage over shows of solidarity with Ukraine
League plans gestures of support this weekend
IQIYI Sports informs league it will not broadcast games

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/mar/04/china-pulls-premier-league-tv-coverage-over-shows-of-solidarity-with-ukraine

One dictatorship has to be worried about anything supporting the fall of another dictatorship even if the connection is a bit of a stretch. Not to mention it might just be that whoever is in charge of that decision doesn't want Xi to see the EPL message.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

1 minute ago, Foggy Notion said:

 

You know that some international construction firms are rubbing their hands together at the prospect of international aid to rebuild Ukraine in the near future.

[tx 3 putt 77115]

When you’ve lost china …..

[Bevo 13579]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Oh it's the type that will do that as well. And it's naive as fuck to think US firms with Moscow offices and cross-border transaction representation/active litigation can just shut all that off over night.    It's a bit more complicated than that.  Luckily my firm doesn't have a big Euro presence but for those that do it has to be a nightmare figuring out how to unwind everything (which is in process, lots of articles on it).  The firms that put out the early PR press releases "severing ties" almost certainly had much fewer ties to sever and likely not much active representation.

I don't think it is much different as Apple, etc. cutting off ties. They have ongoing processes and active contracts as well. Apple may have deeper pockets to absorb losses but fundamentally, I don't think the difference is huge. Perhaps, the biggest impediment is that the law firm is kind of a middle man. They represent others and if the party being represented wants to continue business, the law firm is probably obligated to continue. With that said, the law firm could easily put out a press release saying it will unwind Russian business.

[StruggleBus 3922]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

When you’ve lost china …..

I think you may have misread that

[Napoleon 8690]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You know that some international construction firms are rubbing their hands together at the prospect of international aid to rebuild Ukraine in the near future.

 

Halliburton?

[RDCanecutter 26454]

41 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Interdasting - what's a contributing participant?  NATO padawan?

 

A pledge. Ukrainians will have to perform zany college pranks.

[tx 3 putt 77115]

3 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 

Halliburton?

Load up on Halliburton stock

Edited March 4, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[pops 7005]

18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I can’t speak for the world, but I feel like it’s alreafy an L. I don’t believe he’ll recover from this. He’ll either die in office or be killed, but he’ll never enjoy the stature he once did on the world stage, and his position as the leader of Russia will never be as secure as it was the day before the invasion. 

This will be his legacy. 

Yep. He's undone 30 years of domestic and economic progress with the west in a week. 

He's living in kgb ussr fantasy land if he thinks he can hide this from the populace like they used to.  You don't go from being a relatively free society back to breadlines in a week without some people wondering what is up.

He's already lost. We will just have to see how many Ukrainians and Russians die until he takes it. Like a pussy. 

[Brisketexan 105161]

18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep. Even if he took and held Ukraine, sanctions aren't going anywhere. And Europe has learned that they need to be as independent from Russia as quick as possible.

I also guarantee that 100% of the oligarchs are furious with this situation, and personal their sanctions are going nowhere. 

Perhaps Putin fully survives this but he's damaged goods in many ways.

The bolded is one of the biggest Ls for Putin out there.  Europe happily entwined itself with Russia, to their mutual financial benefit (and if Russia wasn't a malevolent actor, it made enough sense).  Now that Russia has revealed itself to be a malevolent actor, Europe cannot continue to do so.

Shitting away free and easy trade with a large adjacent trading partner is a dumb decision, and that's the decision that Russia made here.  There are lots of other losses for them, but this one is key.

[Bateshorn 9928]

Yeah: best case scenario is he manages to install a puppet regime and annexes Donbus, but he’ll have to commit Russian troops to keep the puppet upright and they are going to be the subject of a never ending and well  armed insurgency.

[Bateshorn 9928]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded is one of the biggest Ls for Putin out there.  Europe happily entwined itself with Russia, to their mutual financial benefit (and if Russia wasn't a malevolent actor, it made enough sense).  Now that Russia has revealed itself to be a malevolent actor, Europe cannot continue to do so.

Shitting away free and easy trade with a large adjacent trading partner is a dumb decision, and that's the decision that Russia made here.  There are lots of other losses for them, but this one is key.

Good for American gas producers tho.  And the Europeans are going to want to get serious about stabilizing Libya for oil production.

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[dcar00 14289]

22 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:

 

so now nutria are transitioning also?

[TXSG8R 3362]

2 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

as long as Ukrainians believe they can win…that’s all that matters

It’s week 2, and the Russians haven’t even gotten serious about civilian casualties yet. 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

Good thread with some good articles