Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 33958]

Russia has decided to block Facebook, which is fucked up because how else will Russians get the Russian disinformation Zuckerburg won’t block? 

[TXSG8R 3325]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded is one of the biggest Ls for Putin out there.  Europe happily entwined itself with Russia, to their mutual financial benefit (and if Russia wasn't a malevolent actor, it made enough sense).  Now that Russia has revealed itself to be a malevolent actor, Europe cannot continue to do so.

Shitting away free and easy trade with a large adjacent trading partner is a dumb decision, and that's the decision that Russia made here.  There are lots of other losses for them, but this one is key.

I believe he thought he had the hook deep enough and with Covid driven inflation Europe wouldn’t be able to wriggle free. Waiting for NS2 to be flowing would have been even safer, but my guess is he thought with Covid starting to wane he wouldn’t have better economic conditions to lock Europe in. 

[We’reTexas 1467]

36 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Oh it's the type that will do that as well. And it's naive as fuck to think US firms with Moscow offices and cross-border transaction representation/active litigation can just shut all that off over night.    It's a bit more complicated than that.  Luckily my firm doesn't have a big Euro presence but for those that do it has to be a nightmare figuring out how to unwind everything (which is in process, lots of articles on it).  The firms that put out the early PR press releases "severing ties" almost certainly had much fewer ties to sever and likely not much active representation.

Yeah sucks to be Baker Botts’ managing partner right now. 

[BamaATL 15750]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia has decided to block Facebook, which is fucked up because how else will Russians get the Russian disinformation Zuckerburg won’t block? 

1st definitive Russian victory of the war

[MillerEP 30233]

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by MillerEP

[TXSG8R 3325]

2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I believe he thought he had the hook deep enough and with Covid driven inflation Europe wouldn’t be able to wriggle free. Waiting for NS2 to be flowing would have been even safer, but my guess is he thought with Covid starting to wane he wouldn’t have better economic conditions to lock Europe in. 

To expand on this thought. I doubt we will ever get an honest accounting out of Russia barring someone offing Putin, but I’m really curious if history will look back and credit the Olympics and global warming from ultimately doing Russia in. If this kicked off a month or two ago the conditions are there for Russia to roll across more terrain and probably lock Kiev down closer to their original estimates. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8781]

Russia has decided to block Facebook, which is fucked up because how else will Russians get the Russian disinformation Zuckerburg won’t block? 

[MillerEP 30233]

 

[TwiceHorn 30733]

21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded is one of the biggest Ls for Putin out there.  Europe happily entwined itself with Russia, to their mutual financial benefit (and if Russia wasn't a malevolent actor, it made enough sense).  Now that Russia has revealed itself to be a malevolent actor, Europe cannot continue to do so.

Shitting away free and easy trade with a large adjacent trading partner is a dumb decision, and that's the decision that Russia made here.  There are lots of other losses for them, but this one is key.

Yeah, it was so easy to indulge the belief that Russia really wasn't an enemy anymore, even if Putin was evil and it's government a shambles.

Putin has destroyed any ability to indulge that belief for as long as he remains in power, and probably for decades thereafter.

And, after ruminating on Putin's "proposed" motivations, I am not sure I believe that he believes in "reassembling the Rodina" or the Soviet Union.  I do believe that he's doing a "wag the dog" pre-election and for general popular support and using that as an easily swallowed pretext; that he is the strongman protector of mother Russia.  And, maybe he does believe that having a land buffer between Russia and NATO or "the west" makes it easier for him to retain power.

So, in a blinding glimpse of the obvious, "it's all about him" and the pretexts to the contrary are incredibly flimsy.

Edited March 4, 2022 by TwiceHorn

[Brisketexan 103177]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, it was so easy to indulge the belief that Russia really wasn't an enemy anymore, even if Putin was evil and it's government a shambles.

Putin has destroyed any ability to indulge that belief for as long as he remains in power, and probably for decades thereafter.

That's the part that does baffle me -- the Rubicon of "well, Russia is a rogue state and Russians can't be trusted" has been crossed.  There's no going back.  All that Russia has done to integrate into the western economy and reap those benefits -- POOF, gone.  I get the economic play they are making for Ukrainian natural gas, but you need a buyer.  And I'm thinking that Europe is going to do all they can not to put their balls in Russia's vise again.

If I'm a firm that builds LNG plants, or I'm a Texas gas producer.....I'm going to be quite aroused at this moment in history.

[BamaATL 15750]

7 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

At this point though, I'm thinking Putin just simply doesn't care what the cost financially is.  The only economic measures left are the WTO and the energy sanctions.  Both are big, but that it once escalated to those levels.  There would be essentially no other financial penalty at all.  

[RDCanecutter 25777]

Y'all still callin it "Russia?"

All the cool kids are callin it "Big Flat Broke Albania."

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

2 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Yeah that's why NATO most likely isn't entering Ukraine. Where this gets murky is even thoughout the Vietnam War the US was never just laying complete waste to entire populations of civilians. There were civilian casualties and war crimes committed by US soldiers but it was never a policy to just destroy every aspect of the country the way Putin is starting to do here. Does that lead NATO to draw a line in the dirt and confront Putin? I don't know. 

There has to be a like somewhere. NATO made it clear that line wasn't Ukraine when it refused to work with Ukraine to station troops and equipment on the Russian border as Putin amassed his troops there. 

So where is the line? If he invades Moldova as well is that not a line? Is the line only at NATO borders and any and all atrocities committed by Putin outside of that not to be responded to militarily? 

That's the tough question right now. What I do know is under no circumstances should the US go unilaterally here, especially since this is in Europe's back yard. Biden should support and give advice in the NATO discussions and hold to what we've been doing already. 

Just now saw NATO said this morning they won't do a no fly as that would lead to direct confrontation with Russia and all out war with Russia and the west. 

When he starts carpet bombing with B-52s or napalming forests let me know. 

[MillerEP 30233]

Yeah, I'm not sure where he expects to go. Let's say that Ukraine capitulates today, and he takes over, installs a puppet regime and demilitarizes it. What then? The rest of the world will just say "Oh well, lets go back to normal relations!" Like is that what Putin thinks will happen?

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

12 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Russian emigre friends say this is a big mistake -- how else are they going to get info outside of the state monopoly?

[Bevo 13418]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Yeah, I'm not sure where he expects to go. Let's say that Ukraine capitulates today, and he takes over, installs a puppet regime and demilitarizes it. What then? The rest of the world will just say "Oh well, lets go back to normal relations!" Like is that what Putin thinks will happen?

This would happen. How long do you think companies would stay out of Russia? How long do you think the EU will keep sanctions in place? Next winter those sanctions are gone regardless of what happens with Ukraine.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Bevo

[MillerEP 30233]

 

[RDCanecutter 25777]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Yeah, I'm not sure where he expects to go. Let's say that Ukraine capitulates today, and he takes over, installs a puppet regime and demilitarizes it. What then? The rest of the world will just say "Oh well, lets go back to normal relations!" Like is that what Putin thinks will happen?

Well if Putin wins, I plan to go to the zoo and ride one of the lions shirtless. Many like-minded manly mens will be doing same.

[Longhornlove 4721]

43 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 

Halliburton?

Halliburton is an oilfield services company. They used to own KBR, that is a construction company.

[MillerEP 30233]

1 minute ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Russian emigre friends say this is a big mistake -- how else are they going to get info outside of the state monopoly?

https://psiphon.ca/

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

https://psiphon.ca/

I would share that but Facebook banned me yesterday for saying "Russians are weird."

[BamaATL 15750]

2 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Russian emigre friends say this is a big mistake -- how else are they going to get info outside of the state monopoly?

At this point does it fucking matter?  They haven't done shit about it for 20 plus years, being cut off sends a better signal in my mind.  Maybe suddenly not having shit will be enough to convert protesting to uprising.

[GopherRock 1759]

Not being familiar with conditions in the former Soviet Union, do people still have shortwave radios? It's good that the Beeb and RFE is back on there, but can anyone hear what they're pumping out?

[MillerEP 30233]

1 minute ago, GopherRock said:

Not being familiar with conditions in the former Soviet Union, do people still have shortwave radios? It's good that the Beeb and RFE is back on there, but can anyone hear what they're pumping out?

https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/4/22961286/bbc-news-blocked-in-russia-ukraine-invasion-shortwave-radio

 

[RPM 26077]

4 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Russian emigre friends say this is a big mistake -- how else are they going to get info outside of the state monopoly?

Elon

[PTINS 3412]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

This would happen. How long do you think companies would stay out of Russia? How long do you think the EU will keep sanctions in place? Next winter those sanctions are gone regardless of what happens with Ukraine.

Russia is going to be on the hook to repair the Ulraine infrastructure. I don't see "normalized relations" with Russia for the forseeable future.

[Foosters 17627]

5 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I would share that but Facebook banned me yesterday for saying "Russians are weird."

Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, you're free at last

[Brisketexan 103177]

8 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Russian emigre friends say this is a big mistake -- how else are they going to get info outside of the state monopoly?

A reasonable thought.  It is important to keep info flowing in, on whatever channels we can get.

[Blotto 23229]

3 minutes ago, RPM said:

Elon

How exactly does that work without Elon selling Starlink Receivers in Russia? 

[Bevo 13418]

2 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Russia is going to be on the hook to repair the Ulraine infrastructure. I don't see "normalized relations" with Russia for the forseeable future.

Don't they usually just displace the natives and give the properties to Russians and let them rebuild it.

[ABSR 5267]

56 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

A pledge. Ukrainians will have to perform zany college pranks.

Every Halloween the trees will be filled with underwear. Every spring, the toilets will explode.

[Constant 6524]

How many millions of dollars of equipment have they just abandoned?

[bolverk 28892]

[MillerEP 30233]

 

 

[InkaUtexas 24830]

 

[bolverk 28892]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13276]

13 minutes ago, Constant said:

How many millions of dollars of equipment have they just abandoned?

A scared tank crew could see this as a quick exit for them. 

 

[gsoda3 3187]

the white house is considering a ban on russian oil imports.

[Longhornlove 4721]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

the white house is considering a ban on russian oil imports.

Better late than never I suppose.

[Hook1997 5232]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

the white house is considering a ban on russian oil imports.

How this isn’t happening already is crazy. No CR, no matter who is in our government this should be a no brainer.  

[Parliament 13982]

3 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

How this isn’t happening already is crazy. No CR, no matter who is in our government this should be a no brainer.  

I thought we imported WAY more than that.  Yeah.  No brainer.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/how-much-oil-does-the-us-import-from-russia

Edited March 4, 2022 by Parliament

[BabaYaga 15116]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

A scared tank crew could see this as a quick exit for them. 

 

Or a drunk one...

[BabaYaga 15116]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

A scared tank crew could see this as a quick exit for them. 

 

All kidding aside, good friend from HS joined the 24th mech after college and was an Abrams driver.  On dry ground, they perform fairly well.  When it's icy/muddy/slippery, they slide all over the GD place.  They are so heavy when they get going in one direction, making a sudden turn on muddy terrain.....sit back and enjoy the show, as you're going for a ride.  Said they'd slam into and take out small trees all the time.  Almost like driving a boat.  

[Parliament 13982]

Does the Army carry collision insurance or just liability?

[Bevo 13418]

25 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

I had a great grandfather who lived in the Ukraine near Odessa.

[InkaUtexas 24830]

[BabaYaga 15116]

Just now, Parliament said:

Does the Army carry collision insurance or just liability?

Can we all agree that our mechanized forces are the best in the world?  Right?  

The crazy shit he told me that went on @ Hood and later when he was stationed in Alabama/Kentucky.  It's wild.....so I can only imagine what a gaggle of fuktards these Russian crews must be by comparison.  

[Goredho 17154]

I can't keep up with this thread and keep my job, so I can't look back to see if someone already posited this, but I've been trying to think why would Putin attack a nuclear power plant.  How can it either help his cause or hurt the Ukraine's?  I am starting to think it's just a terror tactic.  Get the word "nuclear" into the reporting about the conflict, which inspires a level of angst in all of us children of the Cold War.  It inspires fear and dread without actually introducing nuclear arms into the conflict.  That fear of nukes is about all Putin has to keep the rest of the world in check, so keeping it at the forefront of everyone's thinking is probably to his advantage.  I could obviously be wrong, but if that's what this is, I wonder if it is a tell that Putin really does not want this to escalate further.

[Nivek 16643]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I thought we imported WAY more than that.  Yeah.  No brainer.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/how-much-oil-does-the-us-import-from-russia

So now I just need to buy the oil from Russia, sell it to Burundi and then import the oil from Burundi.  

Cool.

[Parliament 13982]

2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I can't keep up with this thread and keep my job, so I can't look back to see if someone already posited this, but I've been trying to think why would Putin attack a nuclear power plant.  How can it either help his cause or hurt the Ukraine's?  I am starting to think it's just a terror tactic.  Get the word "nuclear" into the reporting about the conflict, which inspires a level of angst in all of us children of the Cold War.  It inspires fear and dread without actually introducing nuclear arms into the conflict.  That fear of nukes is about all Putin has to keep the rest of the world in check, so keeping it at the forefront of everyone's thinking is probably to his advantage.  I could obviously be wrong, but if that's what this is, I wonder if it is a tell that Putin really does not want this to escalate further.

Many people believe he's goading NATO into the war.  That and he has a death wish.  Also he's an asshole.