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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted (edited)

From today's Welt:

 

"Expensive Energy"


European Gas Price in Euro per Megawat-Hour  /  Electricity Price in Euro per Megawatt-Hour

spacer.png

===============

Agricultural Prices

Wheat Price in USD per Bushel  /  Potash Fertilizer in Euros per Ton

spacer.png

 

====================

 

Price Explosion of Materials of the Earth in 2022 in Percent

European Gas
Wheat
Brent Crude
Palladium
Soybeans
Aluminum
Nickel
Corn
Pork
Lumber
Tin
Platinum

 

spacer.png

Edited by Shady Ray
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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5321

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

From today's Welt:

 

"Expensive Energy"


European Gas Price in Euro per Megawat-Hour  /  Electricity Price in Euro per Megawatt-Hour

spacer.png

===============

Agricultural Prices

Wheat Price in USD per Bushel  /  Potash Fertilizer in Euros per Ton

spacer.png

 

====================

 

Price Explosion of Materials of the Earth in 2022 in Percent

European Gas
Wheat
Brent Crude
Palladium
Soybeans
Aluminum
Nickel
Corn
Pork
Lumber
Tin
Platinum

 

spacer.png

Good.  Need to have a dose of reality about dependence on Russia.  I know the pain is going to increase, too, because right now this is risk pricing rather than physical shortages.
 

The real question is do any of the governments have the stomach for this if it lasts six months or a year or will they cave?

 

And I saw the UK is neither taking in refugees (50 total so far) nor addressing Londongrad so there is your first likely fold.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Sophisticated Western SAM systems like Patriot not only would require training we can’t give them, but they are Western military jewels that you cannot allow to fall into Russian hands. We canceled the F-35 program for Turkey after they bought S-400s in large part because we could not risk S-400s and F-35s integrating, offering the Russians a treasure trove of how to use their systems to shoot down our jets.

Putting a Patriot system in the field in Ukraine and the Russians getting it would be a fucking nightmare. 

Yeah, if we were going to give the Ukraine SAMs, it would be older s-300 we could get from some neutral economic partners. 

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TXSG8R

TXSG8R 3362

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know very much about biologic weapons, are the generally contained to the areas in which they are deployed, or is it worse than that?  I know of things like VX, but not much else.

It depends, the good CBRN attacks are fast but non-persistent. You want to use it to clean an area and then disperse so your troops can move in. Chemical attacks are much more reliable in that regard.  Most have an immediate effect, but have a predictable fall off as they disperse. Bio attacks aren’t as predictable, usually harder to manufacture, stores and deliver, and have much longer ramp up to impact. VX is a chemical attack. Anthrax is a bio attack. 

If you want to kill all the troops in a fighting position so you can roll through, you use a chemical weapon. If you want to inflict longer term mass suffering, crater morale, and reduce fighting effectiveness for something like the siege of an entrenched city/population, bio is the better choice. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

It depends, the good CBRN attacks are fast but non-persistent. You want to use it to clean an area and then disperse so your troops can move in. Chemical attacks are much more reliable in that regard.  Most have an immediate effect, but have a predictable fall off as they disperse. Bio attacks aren’t as predictable, usually harder to manufacture, stores and deliver, and have much longer ramp up to impact. VX is a chemical attack. Anthrax is a bio attack. 

If you want to kill all the troops in a fighting position so you can roll through, you use a chemical weapon. If you want to inflict longer term mass suffering, crater morale, and reduce fighting effectiveness for something like the siege of an entrenched city/population, bio is the better choice. 

If you can effectively cut off the water supply in a seige, you are going to induce a bio attack via waterborne illness automatically. 

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TXSG8R

TXSG8R 3362

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

If you can effectively cut off the water supply in a seige, you are going to induce a bio attack via waterborne illness automatically. 

I should have read more of the thread, others already covered the meat of my post.

To add for clarity, the US does not deal with lethal chemical or bio weapons as policy. We maintain facilities to research defensive and detection methods, but we don’t manufacture or weaponize any of it.  We have one response to CBRN, and that’s nuclear.  That’s why the NORKs are never coming across the dmz. Their entire plan is to flood the run to Seoul with chemical attacks, which means we are making a lot of NK into a parking lot.

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 21199

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I should have read more of the thread, others already covered the meat of my post.

To add for clarity, the US does not deal with lethal chemical or bio weapons as policy. We maintain facilities to research defensive and detection methods, but we don’t manufacture or weaponize any of it.  We have one response to CBRN, and that’s nuclear.  That’s why the NORKs are never coming across the dmz. Their entire plan is to flood the run to Seoul with chemical attacks, which means we are making a lot of NK into a parking lot.

Probably be an upgrade.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

It is likely wishful thinking, but I keep getting this vibe that one day Putin is going to surprise us all, turn back forces, and just tell the Russians that he defeated nazism and stopped the genocide.

It's obvious this isn't going well and there's no real way to make it go well for Russia. His only options seem to range from least bad to worst. I think putting out propaganda about successfully completing the military intervention is his least bad option. Think GWB and "Mission Accomplished"

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14203

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

It is likely wishful thinking, but I keep getting this vibe that one day Putin is going to surprise us all, turn back forces, and just tell the Russians that he defeated nazism and stopped the genocide.

It's obvious this isn't going well and there's no real way to make it go well for Russia. His only options seem to range from least bad to worst. I think putting out propaganda about successfully completing the military intervention is his least bad option. Think GWB and "Mission Accomplished"

I think he's gonna do this.... but not after he inflicts as much damage as possible (non nuke). He's a small child who just got bitchslapped by the whole world. He's gonna throw his tantrum before he goes to his room. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15297

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

To be honest, I think a bigger issue is that the US fully assumes Ukraine is going to lose this war, and is in the midst of planning how to support an insurgency. 

This is a fair and pragmatic assessment and one that I have shared for some time.  They are going to "lose" the strategic, larger scale, head to head battles as we did in Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan, but the occupation and counter insurgency actions of the UA will be significant.  Russia can "take" Ukraine, but they can't effectively "hold" it.  

This is why the supplied arms to be sent in need to be small.  Infantry weapons.  Light and portable.  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15297

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

It is likely wishful thinking, but I keep getting this vibe that one day Putin is going to surprise us all, turn back forces, and just tell the Russians that he defeated nazism and stopped the genocide.

 

Like we did in Vietnam a decade later?

As the Russians did after a decade in Afghanistan?

As we did after two decades in Afghanistan?

A decade in the Balkans?

I hope this happens, but history seems to be on the side of long, extended conflicts that impart the maximum amount of pain on the civilians.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

awwww shit. I know this looks great, but allows Russian artillery to move forward and set up. Move civilians out so ya don't have to feed them once you take the city. 

Odds on it remaining in place? Is Russia that overextended? I don't think they give zeros fucks about the civilians. 

 

We have a friend who runs a disability center in Kharkiv, who (as if things aren't bad enough) is in the States currently because her father died.  She called over and the people there say that if you step outside, you'll be fired at/shot.  They're okay in the house, but are running short of supplies.  The Russians have allowed one bakery down the street to open and give families one loaf - one - per day.  Plus this lady has disabled men (not sure if vets or what) to care for.  Tragedy doesn't even cover it.

Yeah, I think this "humanitarian" gesture is just an excuse to take target practice to an extent.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34715

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Yeah, if we were going to give the Ukraine SAMs, it would be older s-300 we could get from some neutral economic partners. 

Yeah, it’s hard to identify them, too. And they’d most likely need a backfill as people using S-300s are more likely to need their air defenses.

The West/NATO has a completely different concept of air defense and integration and we can’t just give our hardware without the rest of the package. That’s why the MiGs are so attractive, you use them out of the box. And for that matter, our integrated air defense, especially short and medium range, is a known liability and now is not the time to lose capabilities. 

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Chopper

Chopper 17235

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Posted
4 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Anyway, an important bit from his column today that is running counter to what much of the Twitteratti echo chamber in the US is rambling on about: ...

Ol' Wang knows the score...this entire ordeal is going to end up being a bonanza for China. And that means that this pressure to end this thing quickly is going to fade...I think we are definitely settling in for a protracted conflict. China has so much to gain from this that they are going to make sure that Russia doesn't collapse while they collect a ton of goodies.

C'mon Ray. I don't think you have both feet firmly on the ground, so to speak. Just like what you posted yesterday about the potential of a resumption of JCPOA somehow being a backward step. To help you better understand, know this: Russia and China aren't natural allies. China laughs at Russia and their backwards economy, and their undisciplined national personality.

With the developments of the last 2 weeks, Russia is now seen in even more of a position of weakness in China because the world has seen that their military is not quite the precision machine they've attempted to project. Even Russia's propaganda is seen as a joke - sure it may be working internally but not for ROTW. Russia has precious little resources that interest China and with Putin in a position of extreme witness, you'd have to believe that Putin would be interested in being a small satellite in the orbit of China in order to think those 2 nations are going to be fearsome allies. Seems unlikely.

You keep challenging the "twitterati echo chamber" though...whatever the fuck you think that is.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15297

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Russia and China aren't natural allies. China laughs at Russia and their backwards economy, and their undisciplined national personality.

This doesn't have to matter in the long term, but bedfellows of convenience are quite common.  If Chine perceives a benefit in backing Russia, they will.  

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

When the Soviet Union collapsed, did the USA give Russia any assurances that NATO would not expand to the east?

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/28/candace-owens/fact-checking-claims-nato-us-broke-agreement-again/

A few comments were made during the negotiations of reuniting Germany, but only in the context of reuniting Germany, specifically about not placing NATO forces one inch east IN Germany. No assurances were ever given about anything other than Germany, and no agreements were every made.  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15297

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1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/28/candace-owens/fact-checking-claims-nato-us-broke-agreement-again/

A few comments were made during the negotiations of reuniting Germany, but only in the context of reuniting Germany, specifically about not placing NATO forces one inch east IN Germany. No assurances were ever given about anything other than Germany, and no agreements were every made.  

This is about perception.  We say we didn't.  They said we did.  Wars have started over less.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105139

Posted
Posted

We have a friend who's a producer at DW (one of the bigger German media outlets).  He has been working 6:00 a.m. to midnight every day, with no signs of it letting up.  In one of his messages to us, he said "I never thought my career would include this" [covering a major European war].  There's a real shock to the European system with this one.  This isn't just a local bassackwards ethnic group skirmish or even bigger fight (like in the former Yugoslavia in the 90s).  This is a full-on land war involving one of the world's major powers.

Europe thought it was past that threat when the Cold War ended and the USSR collapsed.  They've just had their worldview turned upside down, and that's going to have repercussions for decades to come.

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/feb/28/candace-owens/fact-checking-claims-nato-us-broke-agreement-again/

A few comments were made during the negotiations of reuniting Germany, but only in the context of reuniting Germany, specifically about not placing NATO forces one inch east IN Germany. No assurances were ever given about anything other than Germany, and no agreements were every made.  

There was little reason to give any concessions. The Soviet Union was falling apart. We didn't need to make deals other than for protecting nuclear weapons.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Like we did in Vietnam a decade later?

As the Russians did after a decade in Afghanistan?

As we did after two decades in Afghanistan?

A decade in the Balkans?

I hope this happens, but history seems to be on the side of long, extended conflicts that impart the maximum amount of pain on the civilians.  

You think someone would learn, wouldn't you? 

War. Huh. What is it good for?

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Parliament

Parliament 14260

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Posted

There is a very regimented process for EU entry.  Things like monetary policy and good governance.  For the longest time, the Ukrainian government was a corrupt, inept mess.  They gotta show progress before they get in.  

That said, EU membership won't change things right now.  It won't help them win the war.

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ABSR

ABSR 5312

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

It isn't about perception.  It is about an actual written agreement (https://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/2plusfour8994e.htm) and about the lies told about that agreement.  

Candace Owens, Vladimir Putin, and others are pushing the lies about the agreement.  We shouldn't give quarter to liars.  

Unlike the actual Budapest Memorandums on Security Assurances from 1994 signed by Russia “guaranteeing” Ukraine’s sovereignty.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, immamac said:

Not true. They have to play with us whether they want to or not. We are far beyond being convenient to china. 

When you owe the bank $10,000 and can't pay, you have a problem.

When you owe the bank $10,000,000 and can't pay, the bank has a problem. 

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