Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Napoleon 8689]

Below this tweet from earlier on this page...

Is a "this photo contains sensitive material" image from the town in Poland about halfway along the highway between Berlin & Warsaw.

It appears to be two different parts of the same wall of murals that are displayed together.

 

[Rimbo 25975]

6 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Below this tweet from earlier on this page...

Is a "this photo contains sensitive material" image from the town in Poland about halfway along the highway between Berlin & Warsaw.

It appears to be two different parts of the same wall of murals that are displayed together.

 

I thought we'd left the Harry Potter mural talk behind us.

[Napoleon 8689]

Just now, Rimbo said:

I thought we'd left the Harry Potter mural talk behind us.

My apologies.

I missed 5 to 10 page chunks a couple of times over the last couple of days.

[Trey3216 15347]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

My apologies.

I missed 5 to 10 page chunks a couple of times over the last couple of days.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

7 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

My apologies.

I missed 5 to 10 page chunks a couple of times over the last couple of days.

 

[Nicole44 22061]

3 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

 

Ukrainians need some of that "Crazy 88's" right now.  Suit up Uma. 

[Homesickhorn 2202]

When the Bingo Card is aligned like this...I mean Putin has to be murdered by a swan or something at this point. Something just so random its absurd...

But why a spoon, cousin?

Because it’s dull you twit! It will hurt more!

[CooterBrown 18014]

Hey Putin…

Honestly, what’s the point of having fuck you money if you don’t occasionally use it to say fuck you.

[Shady Ray 1633]

7 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Panzerfaust is tankfist. The German language is so awesome- it’s like Lego language. Why make a new word when you can just press two or more words together?

[BamaATL 16593]

So I've been largely watching CNN, and it continually brings on retired brass with outdated ideas and beliefs.  I have to imagine Fox News is no different.  Basically, leave your bias at the door, we are all witnessing fossils pontificating on a world they have little understanding of.  On CNN, the old brass keeps insisting that Russia will take everything east of the Dnieper River.  I find his extremely unlikely, even if Russian forces manage to control this territory for a brief amount of time, it seems completely unlikely that they can actually hold this territory (it's half of Texas).  Also, everyone was going crazy over the 40 mile column no less than a few days ago, and now I hear virtually nothing about it.  

[956 Worldwide 34715]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Where did I say he’s not a usurper? I said that every ruler in that area is a usurper in one way or another. There’s not an effective representative government in the region, except Israel, and they do it by limiting the Arab vote. It’s certainly tough to find a Muslim in the region who doesn’t consider THEM usurpers. 

How is Saudi Arabia different than Egypt or Syria, or Iran? It’s not a great region of the world to start casting moral judgements on allies, because they’re all bad. 

And I’m not the one who brought up Saudi Arabia. It’s a pertinent subject because there’s simply no way to cut off Russian exports to the world market to any kind of significant degree without huge world disruptions, but if you can get the Saudis on board they give the best chance to minimize them. 

The only reason I keep quoting others about it is there’s this naive view present, “Ooh, Saudis bad, BOOOO Saudis BOOOOOOO!” Which, fine. Boo the Saudis. I’ll certainly join you. But while we’re booing them, just realize there’s something worse out there. 
 

 

That’s not what a usurper is in a monarchy. A usurper is someone without legal or rightful claim to the throne seizing it. To bring it back to Russia, a “False Dmitri.”

I wonder if the Poles have a fake Romanov stashed somewhere…..

[Nicole44 22061]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So I've been largely watching CNN, and it continually brings on retired brass with outdated ideas and beliefs.  I have to imagine Fox News is no different.  Basically, leave your bias at the door, we are all witnessing fossils pontificating on a world they have little understanding of.  On CNN, the old brass keeps insisting that Russia will take everything east of the Dnieper River.  I find his extremely unlikely, even if Russian forces manage to control this territory for a brief amount of time, it seems completely unlikely that they can actually hold this territory (it's half of Texas).  Also, everyone was going crazy over the 40 mile column no less than a few days ago, and now I hear virtually nothing about it.  

It's like a "car wash" of experts. Pick your poison. I like Anderson on CNN. Before Fox went fucking batshit...they had a great show called Red Eye (late nite stuff) If Fox New is your flavor Bill Hemmer live is pretty decent (at least he actually cares)...MSNBC who knows?  BBC is pretty much milktoast. HLN in the morning is what it is I do love main host. 

[956 Worldwide 34715]

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So I've been largely watching CNN, and it continually brings on retired brass with outdated ideas and beliefs.  I have to imagine Fox News is no different.  Basically, leave your bias at the door, we are all witnessing fossils pontificating on a world they have little understanding of.  On CNN, the old brass keeps insisting that Russia will take everything east of the Dnieper River.  I find his extremely unlikely, even if Russian forces manage to control this territory for a brief amount of time, it seems completely unlikely that they can actually hold this territory (it's half of Texas).  Also, everyone was going crazy over the 40 mile column no less than a few days ago, and now I hear virtually nothing about it.  

I said it upthread, but you can find a Lieutenant Colonel to say anything you want on TV.  And that’s who Americans want to see.

Military and retired military are not the first choice to analyze what a foreign leaders’ political aims are.  Some can look at the battlefield and understand what the physical aims of a campaign are and extrapolate that, but that’s not easy to do with Russia. 

Senior strategic commanders have political advisors (POLADS) assigned to them from the foreign policy community for this reason. 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

It’s the only path available. It’s important to send clear signals to Ukrainians themselves, too. Everyone now and then you see pleas regarding the horrors occurring, in a “Please stop this!” type of way. The west is not going to stop this, unfortunately. They’ll try to help Ukraine stop it, but the help is very limited. 

Honestly, the tweets regarding Ukraine has been the most lucid I’ve ever seen Rubin. I’m shocked. Not Russian military incompetence shocked, but shocked nonetheless. 

Very lucid.

Another thought, could be referencing those pushing the Mig-29 stuff stuff, and the concerns that it could lead to Russia freaking out.

But I'm leaning towards the NFZ folks and those pushing NATO not to expand in the future (Sweden/Finland?)

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Another Lt. Col./Colonel taken out.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Senior strategic commanders have political advisors (POLADS) assigned to them from the foreign policy community for this reason. 

Este. Págale al hombre su dinero. 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Another Lt. Col./Colonel taken out.

 

he looks like a huge dick, fuck him. hope his body rots into the earth and sunflowers pop up

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Trying to open something up in the West? Seems like a good way to get them killed.

 

[Nicole44 22061]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trying to open something up in the West? Seems like a good way to get them killed.

 

Maybe the release of Maverick: Top Gun (which was filmed now at least two years ago can be released???) My feeling in this, not having served, is this is a bait and switch. Odessa is where they are headed. The badguys 

[Rimbo 25975]

 

 

[FartingMonk 3608]

I wish I can get a clearer picture of the battlefield in Ukraine.  One minute it's Ukrainians partisan farmers wiping out entire columns.  Then it's Ukrainian commandos doing ninja stuff to top notch Russian killers, then it's Ukrainian regulars encircling and killing battalions.  Now it's Russian generals getting hit by 1500 meter sniper shots.  6 months ago if asked about Ukraine and you would hear it was one of the most corrupt and inept countries to exist.  But all this time they were hiding some super army.  

[Nicole44 22061]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

I wish I can get a clearer picture of the battlefield in Ukraine.  One minute it's Ukrainians partisan farmers wiping out entire columns.  Then it's Ukrainian commandos doing ninja stuff to top notch Russian killers, then it's Ukrainian regulars encircling and killing battalions.  Now it's Russian generals getting hit by 1500 meter sniper shots.  6 months ago if asked about Ukraine and you would hear it was one of the most corrupt and inept countries to exist.  But all this time they were hiding some super army.  

Me too. The reporters that people wish were on the ground are not. You just have to take the word (as I am "especially over the NY TImes which is a HOF of plagarism") that they are doing what they can to report real shit. I don't exactly know who you expect to give us best info in a legit war zone. 

[SL Xpress 7516]

14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

That’s not what a usurper is in a monarchy. A usurper is someone without legal or rightful claim to the throne seizing it. To bring it back to Russia, a “False Dmitri.”

I wonder if the Poles have a fake Romanov stashed somewhere…..

Yeah, I get what you’re saying. But the definition of the word is not limited to monarchies. And the point at which the monarchy is the “rightful” ruler of the throne is often under dispute as well. It’s not like we’re talking about hundreds of years of rule. All the people who came to power in the Middle East came to their positions after the breakup of the Ottoman Empire, which did last for centuries. The rule of the Saud family itself over modern Saudi Arabia is less than 100 years, and was achieved by militarily conquering territory. Usurping it, even  

My point is it’s a little hypocritical to cast aspersions on bin Salman for being a “usurper.” He’s a ruthless murderer waging a merciless war against a neighboring country, so I don’t want to pretend I’m on his spirit squad. But there’s not a lot to choose from in that part of the world, and as bad as he is - and he’s bad - it gets a whole lot worse. 

There’s ISIS, the Taliban, the Iranian theocracy, and Assad’s regime - not to mention Hezbollah. Wahabbism is in that same category in terms of potential alignment to the west.  And if we’re talking about sanctions against Russia, making them hurt as much as possible, last as long as possible, while minimizing their effect on the West, then it’s an important criteria to consider. Probably fundamental, even. 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

7 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I wish I can get a clearer picture of the battlefield in Ukraine.  One minute it's Ukrainians partisan farmers wiping out entire columns.  Then it's Ukrainian commandos doing ninja stuff to top notch Russian killers, then it's Ukrainian regulars encircling and killing battalions.  Now it's Russian generals getting hit by 1500 meter sniper shots.  6 months ago if asked about Ukraine and you would hear it was one of the most corrupt and inept countries to exist.  But all this time they were hiding some super army.  

 

ill guess the snipers and new ninja abilities are foreign born 

[Blotto 23559]

31 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Another Lt. Col./Colonel taken out.

 

[FartingMonk 3608]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

ill guess the snipers and new ninja abilities are foreign born 

No doubt.  It's like American Ninja 9: Kick Vlad in the Face

[956 Worldwide 34715]

26 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I wish I can get a clearer picture of the battlefield in Ukraine.  One minute it's Ukrainians partisan farmers wiping out entire columns.  Then it's Ukrainian commandos doing ninja stuff to top notch Russian killers, then it's Ukrainian regulars encircling and killing battalions.  Now it's Russian generals getting hit by 1500 meter sniper shots.  6 months ago if asked about Ukraine and you would hear it was one of the most corrupt and inept countries to exist.  But all this time they were hiding some super army.  

Your last sentence is one of those things that folks following this for some time would have told you about.  After 2014 reform of the military was one of the few things they approached with deathly seriousness.  They got billions of dollars in aid and training from the west, cleaned house, created a culture of military volunteerism, and had scores and scores of junior officers go through school with Americans and Brits. They’ve also been at war for eight years. They’ve been focused on one enemy and one type of big future war.

Most could also tell you that if anything the corruption and poor cohesiveness would hit Russia just as hard if not worse outside of their elite units.

No one should be surprised that they put one of Europe’s largest and most formidable armies in the field and that they’re giving the Russians a bad time. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Nicole44 22061]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Your last sentence is one of those things that folks following this for some time would have told you about.  After 2014 reform of the military was one of the few things they approached with deathly seriousness.  They got billions of dollars in aid and training from the west, cleaned house, created a culture of military volunteerism, and had scores and scores of junior officers go through school with Americans and Brits. They’ve also been at war for eight years. They’ve been focused on one enemy and one type of big future war.

Most could also tell you that if anything the corruption and poor cohesiveness would hit Russia just as hard if not worse outside of their elite units.

No one should be surprised that they put one of Europe’s largest and most formidable armies in the field and that they’re giving the Russians a bad time. 

But do you think Ukraine can win? Do you think they can beat them back enough for Putin to be exiled? It is pretty obvious where the most flexible woman in the world is...with their children...the only person I trust with this stuff says he's in Prague.  

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

.

Edited March 9, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl
Better as a DM

[BachelorTrek 3033]

1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

Ukrainians need some of that "Crazy 88's" right now.  Suit up Uma. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by BachelorTrek

[956 Worldwide 34715]

13 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

But do you think Ukraine can win? Do you think they can beat them back enough for Putin to be exiled? It is pretty obvious where the most flexible woman in the world is...with their children...the only person I trust with this stuff says he's in Prague.  

I don’t think that counting on a win like that where the Russian Army fractures and Putin flees or is tossed out a window is likely. I do think that they are and can continue to impose a cost beyond what Putin expected to pay to achieve his pre-war political aims and that those aims probably aren’t achievable in the medium term even if he continues to up the pressure. I think it’s more likely in the medium term that he decides he is willing to pay more than he originally planned as opposed to seriously altering his demands. Unfortunately I think there will be a war in Ukraine for a long time and that Russia will make territorial gains at great cost to themselves and Ukrainians.

[Nicole44 22061]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think that counting on a win like that where the Russian Army fractures and Putin flees or is tossed out a window is likely. I do think that they are and can continue to impose a cost beyond what Putin expected to pay to achieve his pre-war political aims and that those aims probably aren’t achievable in the medium term even if he continues to up the pressure. I think it’s more likely in the medium term that he decides he is willing to pay more than he originally planned as opposed to seriously altering his demands. Unfortunately I think there will be a war in Ukraine for a long time and that Russia will make territorial gains at great cost to themselves and Ukrainians.

I respect your opinion. and @atomheartbevo  @Eastwood  who started this thread.  China just showed their hand. IMO.

[Nicole44 22061]

Damn double post. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Nicole44

[FartingMonk 3608]

43 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Your last sentence is one of those things that folks following this for some time would have told you about.  After 2014 reform of the military was one of the few things they approached with deathly seriousness.  They got billions of dollars in aid and training from the west, cleaned house, created a culture of military volunteerism, and had scores and scores of junior officers go through school with Americans and Brits. They’ve also been at war for eight years. They’ve been focused on one enemy and one type of big future war.

Most could also tell you that if anything the corruption and poor cohesiveness would hit Russia just as hard if not worse outside of their elite units.

No one should be surprised that they put one of Europe’s largest and most formidable armies in the field and that they’re giving the Russians a bad time. 

Nah.  And that's where I'm coming from.  Even before this started I was in on this thread and I said hey the Russian top units match ours.  Even their "rangers" maybe a step behind but they are still formidable.  The rest yeah they suck donkey balls.

I figured the Ukrainians to be similar even with western advisers.  Even with billions in aid how much of that is grifted.  I figured up to 50-60 percent.  And yeah you're going to have some outstanding units.  But stuff that I'm reading like their National guard and regular army battalions rocking the shit out of Russia surprised me.  

Hell, it might be all the other failures of countries we have "trained up" to fight and they will.  One of my best friends was a military advisor for Iraq and he said those were the most useless guys in the world no matter what you taught them.  Their trained JOs that get sent to school at Benning were even worst.  He said maybe 5 out of 100 were worth a shit.  The Afghanistan guys said the same thing.  The guys getting sent to Colombia say the same thing.  Name a country and they will say the same thing.  Hell even the guys coming back from Korea say the same thing.  They say those guys are professionals but are fucking rigid.  So what makes the Ukranians so special that they can fight and be so damn good at it.  Especially when there are certain factions including you saying we have no advisors there at all.  So they are some sort of outlier?  

It just makes me wonder how the same dudes who were actually doing a good job in Donbas until the Russians came in and said sit down little brother you still can't do shit to us are all of a sudden beating the hell out of them.  And then with a 200 thousand strong army, we are getting presented with this picture of oh yeah, it's a rag tag bunch of dudes who got together to shoot these Russians up.  Where is this 200 thousand man army, did they split up into small cohesive fighting units and force multiply when need to?  Because that's Ranger stuff.  It takes more than 8 years of sending JOs to school in the US to make stuff like that happen.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

I wish I can get a clearer picture of the battlefield in Ukraine.  One minute it's Ukrainians partisan farmers wiping out entire columns.  Then it's Ukrainian commandos doing ninja stuff to top notch Russian killers, then it's Ukrainian regulars encircling and killing battalions.  Now it's Russian generals getting hit by 1500 meter sniper shots.  6 months ago if asked about Ukraine and you would hear it was one of the most corrupt and inept countries to exist.  But all this time they were hiding some super army.  

Motivation and skillsets are not dependent on governmental competence.  Sniping and SF is, of course, something learned in the military, but taking on disinterested conscripts in stalled columns doesn’t require military supermen.

[FartingMonk 3608]

46 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think that counting on a win like that where the Russian Army fractures and Putin flees or is tossed out a window is likely. I do think that they are and can continue to impose a cost beyond what Putin expected to pay to achieve his pre-war political aims and that those aims probably aren’t achievable in the medium term even if he continues to up the pressure. I think it’s more likely in the medium term that he decides he is willing to pay more than he originally planned as opposed to seriously altering his demands. Unfortunately I think there will be a war in Ukraine for a long time and that Russia will make territorial gains at great cost to themselves and Ukrainians.

And that's what perplexes me.  I respect your opinion because obviously you are the Ukraine expert but if Russia brought in 200,000 people to fight and the Ukranians have 200,000 people fighting that are actual military.  And we have estimates that Russia have lost 10-15k soldiers.  That's 7 percent of their total unit in two weeks.  That's bad really fucking bad.  So why can't Ukraine win.  Are their numbers worse?

[Fico 1787]

22 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Nah.  And that's where I'm coming from.  Even before this started I was in on this thread and I said hey the Russian top units match ours.  Even their "rangers" maybe a step behind but they are still formidable.  The rest yeah they suck donkey balls.

I figured the Ukrainians to be similar even with western advisers.  Even with billions in aid how much of that is grifted.  I figured up to 50-60 percent.  And yeah you're going to have some outstanding units.  But stuff that I'm reading like their National guard and regular army battalions rocking the shit out of Russia surprised me.  

Hell, it might be all the other failures of countries we have "trained up" to fight and they will.  One of my best friends was a military advisor for Iraq and he said those were the most useless guys in the world no matter what you taught them.  Their trained JOs that get sent to school at Benning were even worst.  He said maybe 5 out of 100 were worth a shit.  The Afghanistan guys said the same thing.  The guys getting sent to Colombia say the same thing.  Name a country and they will say the same thing.  Hell even the guys coming back from Korea say the same thing.  They say those guys are professionals but are fucking rigid.  So what makes the Ukranians so special that they can fight and be so damn good at it.  Especially when there are certain factions including you saying we have no advisors there at all.  So they are some sort of outlier?  

It just makes me wonder how the same dudes who were actually doing a good job in Donbas until the Russians came in and said sit down little brother you still can't do shit to us are all of a sudden beating the hell out of them.  And then with a 200 thousand strong army, we are getting presented with this picture of oh yeah, it's a rag tag bunch of dudes who got together to shoot these Russians up.  Where is this 200 thousand man army, did they split up into small cohesive fighting units and force multiply when need to?  Because that's Ranger stuff.  It takes more than 8 years of sending JOs to school in the US to make stuff like that happen.

I think there is something to be said for the wake up call the UAF got in 2014. Nothing makes you work harder than getting your ass handed to you and knowing you are on the clock until they come back. 

Hopefully, we don't have to find out in a few years if the Russians learned from their mistakes in this war because Putin is sitting on the defense stand in The Hague. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

2 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Motivation and skillsets are not dependent on governmental competence.  Sniping and SF is, of course, something learned in the military, but taking on disinterested conscripts in stalled columns doesn’t require military supermen.

And I totally get that.  It was like that when I was in.  When your dudes are happy your job is easier.  It doesn't take a nerd with a spreadsheet who touts KPIs and performance goals to figure that out.  But staying alive is a helluva motivation.  If they were that then we should be seeing mass desertion and POWs.  

I mean at this moment we have 200 thousand Russian troops who are very unmotivated just lollygagging in Ukraine with apparently the Ukrainian super army just sitting there saying yeah man.  Shell us and bomb us at your leisure.  It's just making me question the fog of war I guess that is there.  What are they waiting for?  Would I send my army in and confront the Russian army straight on?  Hell no.  But if they are sitting there I would shell them and demotivate the shit out of them.  

  

[956 Worldwide 34715]

8 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Nah.  And that's where I'm coming from.  Even before this started I was in on this thread and I said hey the Russian top units match ours.  Even their "rangers" maybe a step behind but they are still formidable.  The rest yeah they suck donkey balls.

I figured the Ukrainians to be similar even with western advisers.  Even with billions in aid how much of that is grifted.  I figured up to 50-60 percent.  And yeah you're going to have some outstanding units.  But stuff that I'm reading like their National guard and regular army battalions rocking the shit out of Russia surprised me.  

Hell, it might be all the other failures of countries we have "trained up" to fight and they will.  One of my best friends was a military advisor for Iraq and he said those were the most useless guys in the world no matter what you taught them.  Their trained JOs that get sent to school at Benning were even worst.  He said maybe 5 out of 100 were worth a shit.  The Afghanistan guys said the same thing.  The guys getting sent to Colombia say the same thing.  Name a country and they will say the same thing.  Hell even the guys coming back from Korea say the same thing.  They say those guys are professionals but are fucking rigid.  So what makes the Ukranians so special that they can fight and be so damn good at it.  Especially when there are certain factions including you saying we have no advisors there at all.  So they are some sort of outlier?  

It just makes me wonder how the same dudes who were actually doing a good job in Donbas until the Russians came in and said sit down little brother you still can't do shit to us are all of a sudden beating the hell out of them.  And then with a 200 thousand strong army, we are getting presented with this picture of oh yeah, it's a rag tag bunch of dudes who got together to shoot these Russians up.  Where is this 200 thousand man army, did they split up into small cohesive fighting units and force multiply when need to?  Because that's Ranger stuff.  It takes more than 8 years of sending JOs to school in the US to make stuff like that happen.

So I think a couple things about the Ukrainians is that first of all, they’re different from Iraqis and Afghans because they’re fighting for their country and their government and not something we tried to create for them.  I think what you saw there was a lot more of lack of will to fight than just “we know fuck all about what to do.” I mean, the Afghans flew their Air Force to Termez and said “peace out,” while the Ukrainians are willing to get shot down.  The Afghans didn’t “lose” so much as melt away after their own leaders bailed. So Ukrainians fighting for their own country are going to behave differently. 

I think you’re seriously overstating the amount of corruption and graft in particular to security assistance as well as underestimating the ground up rebuild that Poroshenko initiated.  As far as Ukrainian drive and flexibility— my direct work with them has been mostly in the hybrid and information realm.  And post 2015 or so, they have been teaching us and the Europeans more than we’ve been teaching them. They’ve been serious, they’ve been focused, and they’ve been effective.  And from everything I hear, that attitude and adaptability has been marched on the conventional mil side. 

Finally, on the ground, we’ve seen Russians do something unexpected and have not seen pitched battles, and we’ve seen the Ukrainians respond quickly to what they are trying to do. And they are also taking care to preserve their forces and pick their fights. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So I think a couple things about the Ukrainians is that first of all, they’re different from Iraqis and Afghans because they’re fighting for their country and their government and not something we tried to create for them.  I think what you saw there was a lot more of lack of will to fight than just “we know fuck all about what to do.” I mean, the Afghans flew their Air Force to Termez and said “peace out,” while the Ukrainians are willing to get shot down.  The Afghans didn’t “lose” so much as melt away after their own leaders bailed. So Ukrainians fighting for their own country are going to behave differently. 

I think you’re seriously overstating the amount of corruption and graft in particular to security assistance as well as underestimating the ground up rebuild that Poroshenko initiated.  As far as Ukrainian drive and flexibility— my direct work with them has been mostly in the hybrid and information realm.  And post 2015 or so, they have been teaching us and the Europeans more than we’ve been teaching them. They’ve been serious, they’ve been focused, and they’ve been effective.  And from everything I hear, that attitude and adaptability has been marched on the conventional mil side. 

Finally, on the ground, we’ve seen Russians do something unexpected and have not seen pitched battles, and we’ve seen the Ukrainians respond quickly to what they are trying to do. And they are also taking care to preserve their forces and pick their fights. 

And that's why I ask.  I'm a submarine guy.  My dudes are marine regulars.  Another is scout sniper.  A few were attached to rangers.  2 were actual rangers.  And so on and so forth.  But when I ask about the numbers they say must know the terrain so quick in and quick out but if the only thing you can drive in are roads because the other shit is around you is thick ass mud.  How are they doing that much damage while it seems like they are taking none.  

Those are the questions that they are like you know if you even had a good advance team how are they sending little groups in to surprise them.  Apparently running through mud is tiring and tough as shit.  

[Nicole44 22061]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think that counting on a win like that where the Russian Army fractures and Putin flees or is tossed out a window is likely. I do think that they are and can continue to impose a cost beyond what Putin expected to pay to achieve his pre-war political aims and that those aims probably aren’t achievable in the medium term even if he continues to up the pressure. I think it’s more likely in the medium term that he decides he is willing to pay more than he originally planned as opposed to seriously altering his demands. Unfortunately I think there will be a war in Ukraine for a long time and that Russia will make territorial gains at great cost to themselves and Ukrainians.

I think they will win. The Ukrainians. It reminds me of something without getting political. I think they are winning the ground war. And now the skies. Fire fight is happening right now!

 

[FartingMonk 3608]

And did the Ukranians hide their army under an invisibility cloak or something?  Where is their armor? And why haven't the Russians sent in heavy bombers to just destroy it.  

[Nicole44 22061]

3 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

And did the Ukranians hide their army under an invisibility cloak or something?  Where is their armor? And why haven't the Russians sent in heavy bombers to just destroy it.  

Odessa and the Black sea. Furk. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

And don't get me started on the black sea fleet.  So they let a patrol boat get close enough to get sank by a land based unit in Odessa?  Get the fuck out of here.  Those frigates can be shelling the shit out of Odessa without anyone coming close to them.  They have everything they need but they send in their little guy to get hit my MLRs.  These are the guys that harassed the shit out of our Navy not even a year ago and then now they are Barney Fife?  It's not adding up anymore.  

[Schulz2.0 28960]

11 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I think they will win. The Ukrainians. It reminds me of something without getting political. I think they are winning the ground war. And now the skies. Fire fight is happening right now!

 

Hope in one hand...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ErrantStrategry/status/1500904280034885635

[FartingMonk 3608]

6 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Odessa and the Black sea. Furk. 

If that black sea fleet isn't neutralized by outside forces.  Odessa is done.  Even if Midland Lee tries to help 

[Bevo 13579]

18 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

If that black sea fleet isn't neutralized by outside forces.  Odessa is done.  Even if Midland Lee tries to help 

 

On a hill overlooking the Black Sea, this elegant spa hotel in a classical building with modern features is 9 km from Odessa International Airport and a 15-minute walk from Arcadia Beach.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Bevo

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

35 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

And did the Ukranians hide their army under an invisibility cloak or something?  Where is their armor? And why haven't the Russians sent in heavy bombers to just destroy it.  

They’d lose most of their bombers. And they only have 300 or so operable front line aircraft. 

[956 Worldwide 34715]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

And that's why I ask.  I'm a submarine guy.  My dudes are marine regulars.  Another is scout sniper.  A few were attached to rangers.  2 were actual rangers.  And so on and so forth.  But when I ask about the numbers they say must know the terrain so quick in and quick out but if the only thing you can drive in are roads because the other shit is around you is thick ass mud.  How are they doing that much damage while it seems like they are taking none.  

Those are the questions that they are like you know if you even had a good advance team how are they sending little groups in to surprise them.  Apparently running through mud is tiring and tough as shit.  

Oh, the Ukrainians are taking damage. We know that. Understandably they aren’t publishing it as much because they want the world to keep backing the small scrappy army taking on the Russians. 
 

I think two big things, intertwined, are holding back broader counteroffensives. First, the Russians have plenty of combat power in reserve that they didn’t commit to this fight.  The Ukrainians only have the army they have.  They aren’t in a position to swing for the knockout blow if Russia decides to commit more of that power and they are killing plenty of Russians anyway. 
 

Second, we have absolutely seen a more restrained Russian offensive than what you’d expect from Russia. As discussed ad nauseam, that’s mostly a result of truly bizarre Russian political assumptions.  But Russia can turn on far more damaging and indiscriminate air/missile/artillery strikes.  They appear to have kind of stalled out around Kyiv and to have settled into a terrible but not full fledged siege of important centers in the south. Russian leaders are likely recalculating how much of a squeeze is worth the juice they might get.  I don’t think Ukrainians want to bait them into a slugfest if there’s a chance that might be avoided. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[FartingMonk 3608]

16 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

They’d lose most of their bombers. And they only have 300 or so operable front line aircraft. 

I've always heard Russians are like Americans.  They don't fly without electronics.  So the only things available to shoot down a high altitude bomber is the S400s.  As soon as they are turned on their systems get detected.  A cruise missile will take care of that.  The fact that they haven't attempted it makes me wonder.  I'm just saying.  Would you not take a chance at fucking up or just ending it outrisk being bogged down?

It's like the navy and air force has been told to sit their asses down and let the glorious Soviet Red machine handle it. And don't get me wrong that might be it.  We did some funny stuff with specOps on the submarine then all of a sudden other branches were like hey.  We want part of this fun.  But this has been a mainly army affair.