Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Shady Ray 1633]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Oh, the Ukrainians are taking damage. We know that. Understandably they aren’t publishing it as much because they want the world to keep backing the small scrappy army taking on the Russians. 
 

I think two big things, intertwined, are holding back broader counteroffensives. First, the Russians have plenty of combat power in reserve that they didn’t commit to this fight.  The Ukrainians only have the army they have.  They aren’t in a position to swing for the knockout blow if Russia decides to commit more of that power and they are killing plenty of Russians anyway. 
 

Second, we have absolutely seen a more restrained Russian offensive than what you’d expect from Russia. As discussed ad nauseam, that’s mostly a result of truly bizarre Russian political assumptions.  But Russia can turn on far more damaging and indiscriminate air/missile/artillery strikes.  They appear to have kind of stalled out around Kyiv and to have settled into a terrible but not full fledged siege of important centers in the south. Russian leaders are likely recalculating how much of a squeeze is worth the juice they might get.  I don’t think Ukrainians want to bait them into a slugfest if there’s a chance that might be avoided. 

Good stuff, 956. Thanks.

 

Another question for you (sorry if this has already been posted, but this thing moves so fast): Have we seen any significant information re the UA forces in the East around Donbass? I know that at the outset of the war, the majority of their forces were stationed along the LOC around the Donbass, but most of the media coverage has been focused on Kiev, Kharkov and to some degree Mariupol, as of late. But the situation around Donbass seems rather static through this whole thing and I haven't seen much movement or coverage on this. Seems like it should be a bigger deal for the Russians, since maximum damage could be inflicted there, but focus on Twitter and in the media of all languages seems to be quieter re the East. Just wondering what's up over there...

[956 Worldwide 34702]

8 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I've always heard Russians are like Americans.  They don't fly without electronics.  So the only things available to shoot down a high altitude bomber is the S400s.  As soon as they are turned on their systems get detected.  A cruise missile will take care of that.  The fact that they haven't attempted it makes me wonder.  I'm just saying.  Would you not take a chance at fucking up or just ending it outrisk being bogged down?

It's like the navy and air force has been told to sit their asses down and let the glorious Soviet Red machine handle it. And don't get me wrong that might be it.  We did some funny stuff with specOps on the submarine then all of a sudden other branches were like hey.  We want part of this fun.  But this has been a mainly army affair.  

I think the simplest explanation is that Russia has fewer/worse sea and air precision weapons than they want the world to believe and they didn’t expect or want to use them in Ukraine.  And now there’s some calculation going on. Some of their Iskander strikes on Ukraine airports appear to have done some damage but they weren’t targeted well enough to knock them out. 

What’s been seen on the Air Force side has been a lot like what they did in Georgia and they lost plenty of aircraft there, too. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Oh, the Ukrainians are taking damage. We know that. Understandably they aren’t publishing it as much because they want the world to keep backing the small scrappy army taking on the Russians. 
 

I think two big things, intertwined, are holding back broader counteroffensives. First, the Russians have plenty of combat power in reserve that they didn’t commit to this fight.  The Ukrainians only have the army they have.  They aren’t in a position to swing for the knockout blow if Russia decides to commit more of that power and they are killing plenty of Russians anyway. 
 

Second, we have absolutely seen a more restrained Russian offensive than what you’d expect from Russia. As discussed as nauseam, that’s mostly a result of truly bizarre Russian political assumptions.  But Russia can turn on far more damaging and indiscriminate air/missile/artillery strikes.  They appear to have kind of stalled out around Kyiv and to have settled into a terrible but not full fledged siege of important centers in the south. Russian leaders are likely recalculating how much of a squeeze is worth the juice they might get.  I don’t think Ukrainians want to bait them into a slugfest if there’s a chance that might be avoided. 

Yep and under standble.  And initially I thought that stalled convoy was to draw the Ukrainians out.  And hoping they would engage them in open battle.  

But even if it was one for one casualties that was happening.  Why isn't the Russian Pr campaign laying it in thick.  Hey here is 1000 Nazis we just cleanse from Kharkov.  The media got us out of Vietnam by showing dead US soldiers and how shitty war was.  Russian disinformation is second to none.  We have dealt with it for 8 years.  Now all of a sudden we don't see it.  Everything I've seen and though would happen has gone exactly opposite.  

Politically yeah we expect to talk tough but even the sanctions stuff.  Is it really hurting the war effort?  Military wise just makes me laugh.  Why would Putin prolong the fight.  If you have the hand to slap the shit out of the dude. Why not do it now and make him sue for peace.  Prolonging this only puts him in a weaker position.

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think the simplest explanation is that Russia has fewer/worse sea and air precision weapons than they want the world to believe and they didn’t expect or want to use them in Ukraine.  And now there’s some calculation going on. Some of their Iskander strikes on Ukraine airports appear to have done some damage but they weren’t targeted well enough to knock them out. 

What’s been seen on the Air Force side has been a lot like what they did in Georgia and they lost plenty of aircraft there, too. 

You know.  You are right.  Just on this conversation I think about it.  It doesn't need to be complex on the explanation why.  But we always go back to Syria.  We go back to Donbas.  We go back to Crimea.  Those places he used the shit out of his navy and air force.  

It's like playing poker.  He represented two strong ass hands and bluffed his way through it against a weaker opponent.  This time around he bluffed again and his opponent has called each way.  He lost the first hand and he's stalling and thinking before he makes a move where he is absolutely pot committed.  His army means nothing.  He knows when he pulls out his last 1000 he's for real.  

[Fico 1778]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

And don't get me started on the black sea fleet.  So they let a patrol boat get close enough to get sank by a land based unit in Odessa?  Get the fuck out of here.  Those frigates can be shelling the shit out of Odessa without anyone coming close to them.  They have everything they need but they send in their little guy to get hit my MLRs.  These are the guys that harassed the shit out of our Navy not even a year ago and then now they are Barney Fife?  It's not adding up anymore.  

I know the video showed the MLRS hitting it but I'm dubious of that claim. I think the Russians got curious at night, came in for a closer look and hit a mine. 

[Fico 1778]

33 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I've always heard Russians are like Americans.  They don't fly without electronics.  So the only things available to shoot down a high altitude bomber is the S400s.  As soon as they are turned on their systems get detected.  A cruise missile will take care of that.  The fact that they haven't attempted it makes me wonder.  I'm just saying.  Would you not take a chance at fucking up or just ending it outrisk being bogged down?

It's like the navy and air force has been told to sit their asses down and let the glorious Soviet Red machine handle it. And don't get me wrong that might be it.  We did some funny stuff with specOps on the submarine then all of a sudden other branches were like hey.  We want part of this fun.  But this has been a mainly army affair.  

152mm arty shell is a hell of a lot cheaper than a bomber sortie, cruise missile or SRBM. 

[Napoleon 8661]

Yahoo has an article portraying the F-16s for MiGs swap as Poland’s idea. (Their use of quotation marks Maybe says that they’re just printing the official story.)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poland-transfers-mig-fighters-u-192255421.html

[Fico 1778]

40 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Oh, the Ukrainians are taking damage. We know that. Understandably they aren’t publishing it as much because they want the world to keep backing the small scrappy army taking on the Russians. 
 

I think two big things, intertwined, are holding back broader counteroffensives. First, the Russians have plenty of combat power in reserve that they didn’t commit to this fight.  The Ukrainians only have the army they have.  They aren’t in a position to swing for the knockout blow if Russia decides to commit more of that power and they are killing plenty of Russians anyway. 
 

Second, we have absolutely seen a more restrained Russian offensive than what you’d expect from Russia. As discussed ad nauseam, that’s mostly a result of truly bizarre Russian political assumptions.  But Russia can turn on far more damaging and indiscriminate air/missile/artillery strikes.  They appear to have kind of stalled out around Kyiv and to have settled into a terrible but not full fledged siege of important centers in the south. Russian leaders are likely recalculating how much of a squeeze is worth the juice they might get.  I don’t think Ukrainians want to bait them into a slugfest if there’s a chance that might be avoided. 

Posted this many pages ago by now, but apparently the FSB conducted a survey last month to guage Ukrainian morale/mindset. Gives a pretty good idea, if true, why they made the assumptions they did.

They should have prepared for the worst case regardless, but confirmation bias is an evil bitch. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, Fico said:

I know the video showed the MLRS hitting it but I'm dubious of that claim. I think the Russians got curious at night, came in for a closer look and hit a mine. 

Exactly.  I've always been I'm a as my eyes see it from a neutral perspective.  Then I say what about his eyes.  Then the other guys eyes.  So you get 3 different looks and 3 different opinions and you realize the other two is bullshit.

No way a Russian boat moves that close.  Unless it was spoofed by AWACS and we have P8s out there but also you must have a golden pellet to hit something.  MLRs aren't accurate.  Boats turn and run fast.  If it was a top hit.  That thing would sit on top and burn for a few hours.  I didn't think about the mine theory but it makes sense

[Buzzrock 14902]

6 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

I am in Atlanta...all my shit is in Texas. "All my shit is in Texas..." Somewhere on here I have a picture of him on the battle ship. Farthest left row seventh from the front. 

We should hang out 

[FartingMonk 3606]

1 minute ago, Fico said:

Posted this many pages ago by now, but apparently the FSB conducted a survey last month to guage Ukrainian morale/mindset. Gives a pretty good idea, if true, why they made the assumptions they did.

They should have prepared for the worst case regardless, but confirmation bias is an evil bitch. 

And way over 100 pages ago we talked about this.  The yes man theory.  Uncle Vlad shot the guy who said it wouldn't work until the guy said it would

[956 Worldwide 34702]

39 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yep and under standble.  And initially I thought that stalled convoy was to draw the Ukrainians out.  And hoping they would engage them in open battle.  

But even if it was one for one casualties that was happening.  Why isn't the Russian Pr campaign laying it in thick.  Hey here is 1000 Nazis we just cleanse from Kharkov.  The media got us out of Vietnam by showing dead US soldiers and how shitty war was.  Russian disinformation is second to none.  We have dealt with it for 8 years.  Now all of a sudden we don't see it.  Everything I've seen and though would happen has gone exactly opposite.  

Politically yeah we expect to talk tough but even the sanctions stuff.  Is it really hurting the war effort?  Military wise just makes me laugh.  Why would Putin prolong the fight.  If you have the hand to slap the shit out of the dude. Why not do it now and make him sue for peace.  Prolonging this only puts him in a weaker position.

 

Remember that Russia is telling everyone there isn’t a war in Ukraine and the Ukrainians aren’t really fighting. So…..yeah. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Remember that Russia is telling everyone there isn’t a war in Ukraine and the Ukrainians aren’t really fighting. So…..yeah. 

But if Russia said we just wiped out 1000 Nazis and the Ukranians are cheering us.  They want us to save their children in Kiev which is filled with more Nazis so we need your help.  These Nazis are tenacious.

[FartingMonk 3606]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Remember that Russia is telling everyone there isn’t a war in Ukraine and the Ukrainians aren’t really fighting. So…..yeah. 

There is no war in Ba Sing Sa

[SL Xpress 7513]

18 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You know.  You are right.  Just on this conversation I think about it.  It doesn't need to be complex on the explanation why.  But we always go back to Syria.  We go back to Donbas.  We go back to Crimea.  Those places he used the shit out of his navy and air force.  

It's like playing poker.  He represented two strong ass hands and bluffed his way through it against a weaker opponent.  This time around he bluffed again and his opponent has called each way.  He lost the first hand and he's stalling and thinking before he makes a move where he is absolutely pot committed.  His army means nothing.  He knows when he pulls out his last 1000 he's for real.  

Wait. He didn’t use the shit out of his Air Force and Navy in either Crimea or Donbas. Honestly, both of those places were basically done without a shot being fired. It’s only after positions were established that the Ukrainians sent anyone to Donbas. And they’ve never tried to attack Russian forces in Crimea. 

There were two ships, an anti submarine and a command ship at Sevastopol that basically surrendered without firing a shot. There was also a submarine surrendered after it was surrounded in the Black Sea. It was devastating for the tiny Ukrainian fleet. Russia had operational control over Crimea basically in 24 hours  

It’s important to realize the Ukrainian military had always been weak since independence in 1993, and then Yanukuvych gutted it even more. His budget was spent on his security services. So you have a gutted military, with a confused chain of command both military and civilian after Yanukuvych fled the country. And Russia took advantage of that. They took control of administrative and law enforcement centers in the Donbas, and that was that. It took a few months for the military to put together a group to take it back. These were poorly trained troops, many of them nationalist volunteers from the far west. Still, they were making progress against what amounted to planted operatives before the Russian military came in and wiped them out. But the dynamics were very different from what we’re seeing today. 

It’s an absolute testament to the commitment Ukraine has had - and the assistance the West has been willing to provide - that the Ukrainian military is as formidable a force as it is. It’s certainly not the same organization they were in 2014 or before. 

I’d also point out that the Donbas region was a manufacturing hub where many of the armored vehicles used to be produced for both domestic and export. So that was another loss. 

[956 Worldwide 34702]

9 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

But if Russia said we just wiped out 1000 Nazis and the Ukranians are cheering us.  They want us to save their children in Kiev which is filled with more Nazis so we need your help.  These Nazis are tenacious.

Russians are not flexible and adaptable. They had a plan that Putin signed off on and micromanaged that was stupid and based on bad assumptions.  Now we should imagine the delicate dance of Putin’s advisors explaining that everything is not working without blaming him or blaming themselves. And all up and down the line people will continue to use the narratives and tactics that they were told to use because they are more afraid of their own command structure than Ukrainians. Which is why it seems like things have stalled out. 
 

This is how Soviets behaved and so it’s how they will behave. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

26 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

We should hang out 

[SL Xpress 7513]

Hey, @956 Worldwide, how much credit does Peroshenko deserve for what’s going on, and do you think things would be different (or how would they be different) if he’d won the election instead of Zelensky?

[956 Worldwide 34702]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Hey, @956 Worldwide, how much credit does Peroshenko deserve for what’s going on, and do you think things would be different (or how would they be different) if he’d won the election instead of Zelensky?

Poroshenko absolutely deserves a lot of the credit for being serious about military reform and for really setting the tone in that sphere. And I think Zelenskyy as sort of a unity candidate who doesn’t have as much conflict of interest and dirt on him is better placed to provide the type of national unity they need now.

It can’t be overstated how this Jewish dude with Russian as a first language from a hard scrabble town, with a real “Soviet person” background is providing the cohesion and narrative that Ukraine needs— and that Poroshenko could not. 

[956 Worldwide 34702]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

Good stuff, 956. Thanks.

 

Another question for you (sorry if this has already been posted, but this thing moves so fast): Have we seen any significant information re the UA forces in the East around Donbass? I know that at the outset of the war, the majority of their forces were stationed along the LOC around the Donbass, but most of the media coverage has been focused on Kiev, Kharkov and to some degree Mariupol, as of late. But the situation around Donbass seems rather static through this whole thing and I haven't seen much movement or coverage on this. Seems like it should be a bigger deal for the Russians, since maximum damage could be inflicted there, but focus on Twitter and in the media of all languages seems to be quieter re the East. Just wondering what's up over there...

I’ve honestly lost track of Donbas. You can look at the siege of Mariupol as part of that front. I am quite sure the local rebels won’t take initiative. The Ukrainians are likely not wanting to go heavy there and fulfill the Russian narrative of “Ukraine planning a huge offensive against poor beleaguered Luhansk.” 

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russians are not flexible and adaptable. They had a plan that Putin signed off on and micromanaged that was stupid and based on bad assumptions.  Now we should imagine the delicate dance of Putin’s advisors explaining that everything is not working without blaming him or blaming themselves. And all up and down the line people will continue to use the narratives and tactics that they were told to use because they are more afraid of their own command structure than Ukrainians. Which is why it seems like things have stalled out. 
 

This is how Soviets behaved and so it’s how they will behave. 

And that's why I was saying only in the American military is someone allowed to change that.  I ran through some stupid shit and I was only a lowly e6.  My CO who later ended up being a 2 Star asked me because he ended up running into me out in town.  He said hey why is shit fucking up right now.  I said sir if you want to know. Then I'm going to captains mast for telling the truth.

He said nah man, no one knows what you are going to tell me.  I said ok.  So sir.  You are an O6.  You have 7 other guys on the OMFG you're competing with.  When y'all are in this meeting and PAcSub asks if we can do this in 20 days.  You say no and the other 6 guys says no.  But 1 guy says yes.  Then fuck all of a sudden.  It can be done.  So the next time PAcSub asks.  Someone says it can be done in 15.  Then all of a sudden it can be done in 10.  Then stuff starts fucking up then you guys say I have no idea.  

He looked at me and said oh fuck.  Oh fuck.  

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

I've always heard Russians are like Americans.  They don't fly without electronics.  So the only things available to shoot down a high altitude bomber is the S400s.  As soon as they are turned on their systems get detected.  A cruise missile will take care of that.  The fact that they haven't attempted it makes me wonder.  I'm just saying.  Would you not take a chance at fucking up or just ending it outrisk being bogged down?

It's like the navy and air force has been told to sit their asses down and let the glorious Soviet Red machine handle it. And don't get me wrong that might be it.  We did some funny stuff with specOps on the submarine then all of a sudden other branches were like hey.  We want part of this fun.  But this has been a mainly army affair.  

Russia has something like 10,000 tanks, and plenty of conscripts. They don’t have a lot of front line aircraft, certainly not a lot of true bombers, and they probably aren’t just flush with cruise missiles anymore either. 
 

So they use up the Irish. The dead cost nothing.  

[FartingMonk 3606]

1 minute ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Russia has something like 10,000 tanks, and plenty of conscripts. They don’t have a lot of front line aircraft, certainly not a lot of true bombers, and they probably aren’t just flush with cruise missiles anymore either. 
 

So they use up the Irish. The dead cost nothing.  

That's wrong though.  A bomber can't make some one in the ground shut the fuck up.  It doesn't matter how useless they are they can still control the people on the ground.  

Me with an AK can make at least 10 people shut the fuck up and dig a hole for me.

[FartingMonk 3606]

Like I said.  My overall perspective is still.  Putin needs to die and he needs to die fast.

Everything else for me changes from information I get from people I know.  My Alphabet soup brother is gone.  My active military guys are gone.  So the changing dynamics form and reform my opinions on what it going on.  The best thing is to ask why.  And then the other thing is to ask why they aren't doing it.  I'm still in the opinion that Zelensky needs to bug the fuck out and go to Poland.  Anyone asking about MIGs or no fly zones is just stupid.  As far as nuclear reactor talks.  The reactor are safe.  

[NorthLoop 14181]

6 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Below this tweet from earlier on this page...

 

 

 

Bob Odenkirk has seen better days.

[Hefeweizen 5310]

 

This guy has outstanding maps and analysis.  Unfortunately, I think he is spot on that Russia is grinding this thing down and will continue to  do so.  

Air superiority appears to be impossible for Russia to achieve though.

Sanctions are crushing Russia but don't affect the battlefield.  Ukraine holding out for another 4 to 6 weeks would probably be a win for them.  At that point it switches to an insurgency.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Hefeweizen

[South Austin 52450]

35 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

So they use up the Irish. The dead cost nothing.  

[J.R. 150]

Could you sum up the last couple pages by saying: never underestimate a small, unconstrained force with excellent leadership (and I mean both internally and from foreign “advisors” in this case) against a large, inept bureaucracy. None of this is very surprising in that context, except perhaps the extent of the ineptitude. 

[TXSG8R 3362]

1 minute ago, J.R. said:

Could you sum up the last couple pages by saying: never underestimate a small, unconstrained force with excellent leadership (and I mean both internally and from foreign “advisors” in this case) against an large, inept bureaucracy autocracy. None of this is very surprising in that context, except perhaps the extent of the ineptitude. 

FIFY. A lot of the issue here is Putin gets what Putin wants regardless of reality. Putin says he wants Kiev in 2 days. You either say yes, we will take it in two days, or you fall off a building and the next guy says yes, we will take it in two days. 

[Orange&White 5522]

Are the Russians slowing this thing down to wait for the mud to dry up?

When does the weather in Ukraine clear up and provide dry ground for the convoys to move easier?

[SL Xpress 7513]

34 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

 

This guy has outstanding maps and analysis.  Unfortunately, I think he is spot on that Russia is grinding this thing down and will continue to  do so.  

Air superiority appears to be impossible for Russia to achieve though.

Sanctions are crushing Russia but don't affect the battlefield.  Ukraine holding out for another 4 to 6 weeks would probably be a win for them.  At that point it switches to an insurgency.

That was an amazing read. He does a great job of conveying a sense of urgency for both sides. I didn’t realize the importance of Sumy. I thought I had read in the early going that Russia had captured it, and then Ukrainians took it back. Who knows the truth of it. Just made me think it wasn’t that strategically important if it changed hands so quickly. 

Thank you so much for posting that. Really did a great job of trying to explain the theater of war. 

Also, I hadn’t seen anything elsewhere about Chinese reporters being embedded in Donbas units. That was interesting. 

[TXSG8R 3362]

6 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Are the Russians slowing this thing down to wait for the mud to dry up?

When does the weather in Ukraine clear up and provide dry ground for the convoys to move easier?

Doubt that’s the move, that area stays pretty moist. 
 

Spoiler

Like yer mom

It’s the world’s bread basket for a reason.  Soft dirt, steady precipitation. Xi holding Putin up for the Olympics really fucked him. 

[SL Xpress 7513]

2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Doubt that’s the move, that area stays pretty moist. 
 

  Reveal hidden contents

Like yer mom

It’s the world’s bread basket for a reason.  Soft dirt, steady precipitation. Xi holding Putin up for the Olympics really fucked him. 

IOC decision makers gloating, “Man, I took those massive bribes from China for a good cause!”

[Buzzrock 14902]

ABC reporting this morning that the Russian invading force is still 95% intact. 

[TXSG8R 3362]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

IOC decision makers gloating, “Man, I took those massive bribes from China for a good cause!”

Yea, I opined earlier in the thread that history may give Xi and global warming credit for dragging this war and Putin down. Ukraine can probably fund most of their rebuilding efforts selling little jars of official Ukrainian mud with sunflower seeds.

[Shady Ray 1633]

57 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

 

This guy has outstanding maps and analysis.  Unfortunately, I think he is spot on that Russia is grinding this thing down and will continue to  do so.  

Air superiority appears to be impossible for Russia to achieve though.

Sanctions are crushing Russia but don't affect the battlefield.  Ukraine holding out for another 4 to 6 weeks would probably be a win for them.  At that point it switches to an insurgency.

Great recommendation. Thanks a lot for sharing. 

[Nicole44 22057]

16 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

ABC reporting this morning that the Russian invading force is still 95% intact. 

That’s 95% of what they committed. I think. Is this like the whole “Austin has a 95% chance of rain” which I will never understand when it’s 100% raining on your ass. @phdhorn want to weigh in?

[SL Xpress 7513]

1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

That’s 95% of what they committed. I think. Is this like the whole “Austin has a 95% chance of rain” which I will never understand when it’s 100% raining on your ass. @phdhorn want to weigh in?

They’re likely quoting the defense department, which said the Russians have suffered a 4-10% material loss and between 2000-4000 casualties. 

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

That's wrong though.  A bomber can't make some one in the ground shut the fuck up.  It doesn't matter how useless they are they can still control the people on the ground.  

Me with an AK can make at least 10 people shut the fuck up and dig a hole for me.

Perhaps not, but they have a Triad much as we do, and their air portion of that nuclear triangle is minimal. They’re going to win the ground war in Ukraine if they want to, but grind down their forces in the process. I suspect they’ll want to maintain their nuclear shield and means to deliver it.

Otherwise they risk becoming a….Bi….ad?

[Homercles 10205]

12 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

I am sorry. Your application for citizenship to my "nation state" has been denied.  

That’s a shame.  I do like your flag

[South Austin 52450]

1 hour ago, Orange&White said:

Are the Russians slowing this thing down to wait for the mud to dry up?

When does the weather in Ukraine clear up and provide dry ground for the convoys to move easier?

Take that shit to the 2022 Rain Thread.

[Deej 76755]

8 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

Still loving me some late night Nicole

[South Austin 52450]

2 minutes ago, Deej said:

Lube helps with that.

[Fico 1778]

1 hour ago, J.R. said:

Could you sum up the last couple pages by saying: never underestimate a small, unconstrained force with excellent leadership (and I mean both internally and from foreign “advisors” in this case) against a large, inept bureaucracy. None of this is very surprising in that context, except perhaps the extent of the ineptitude. 

And playing/defending home field. 

[NoName 16351]

spoilering this as SA != UKR

Spoiler

11 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I can't wait for his father to pass and the wahabbis are no longer bound by honor to be aligned with the House of Saud.  

let me tell you, if you hate the House of Saud and everything they stand for/do...wait until you see what the Wahhabis do with billions of petrodollars.

idk what would be worse for stability world-wide - the Iranians getting nukes or the Wahhabis turning Saudi Arabia into a theocracy like Iran.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by NoName

[956 Worldwide 34702]

1 hour ago, J.R. said:

Could you sum up the last couple pages by saying: never underestimate a small, unconstrained force with excellent leadership (and I mean both internally and from foreign “advisors” in this case) against a large, inept bureaucracy. None of this is very surprising in that context, except perhaps the extent of the ineptitude. 

My belief is that Russia’s war bureaucracy would have made this better and not worse for them.  Most indications are that Russia’s actual battlefield commanders had little to do with preparing the invasion plans and certainly all indicators were that junior officers and unit level guys knew fuck-all about what to do. Not briefed, not integrated, nothing. 
 

When we invaded Iraq and toppled the regime, we were motivated by bizarre assumptions about what to do after we won. But our military bureaucracy was allowed to at least plan and execute up to the “we win” part.  That appears not to have happened. 
 

 

[BabaYaga 15288]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

That's wrong though.  A bomber can't make some one in the ground shut the fuck up.  It doesn't matter how useless they are they can still control the people on the ground.  

 

Battle of Britain out front shoulda' told ya'

[phdhorn 6224]

1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

@phdhorn want to weigh in?

Something like this:



Discuss and get back to me.  Be sure to show your work.

[Nicole44 22057]

1 hour ago, J.R. said:

Could you sum up the last couple pages by saying: never underestimate a small, unconstrained force with excellent leadership (and I mean both internally and from foreign “advisors” in this case) against a large, inept bureaucracy. None of this is very surprising in that context, except perhaps the extent of the ineptitude. 

Sum up? 

[Nicole44 22057]

2 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Something like this:



Discuss and get back to me.  Be sure to show your work.