Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Smax 3800]

Just now, Chewbacca said:

You are awfully cavalier about starting a nuclear conflict.

 

The red line, since you can't figure it out, is NATO.  

 

I just dont buy that he would launch nukes, sorry I just dont. Yes he's an narcissistic lunatic but he's also been through kgb training and knows what launching would entail and while hes proven not to give 2 fucks I don't think he wants to go down as the man who ended the world.

As for the nato line, yeah I dont see him attacking nato yet but there are what half a dozen or so ex soviet countries that aren't in nato, so guess they are next..

[Nicole44 22067]

21 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

Then Ukraine is lost and whatever previous soviet union country Putin sets his eyes on next, this lackluster display by the west really maes me questions nato response if he tries to take Armenia or Azerbaijan

It’s not lost. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Nicole44

[SL Xpress 7516]

10 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Did we really want Phillip Morris to exit? Is there a way to add some exceptions?

[BabaYaga 15302]

2 minutes ago, Smax said:

I just dont buy that he would launch nukes, sorry I just dont.

It's literally written into Russian engagement doctrine.  Escalate to deescalate.  

[Smax 3800]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

He will never take Ukraine. 

And yeah, if he sets his eyes on doing the same thing to Armenia and Azerbaijan, or even Georgia, he’s likely going to be able to, assuming he has a working military at that point. My guess is he’ll die first. From old age if nothing else. He’s bitten off more than he can chew with Ukraine. He’ll never be rid of this quagmire for as long as Russian forces are stationed there, and as soon as they leave whatever government he’s installed will be deposed. Same thing that happened in Afghanistan for the USSR (or the US, for that matter).

 

I can see him increasing the indiscriminate shelling of major cities and bombing as well, to the point that Aleppo looked tame. He doesn't have to take it, hes not going to occupy it, he will level everything and we will just sit here and watch as their will be nothing left.

[Nicole44 22067]

Pentagon briefing upcoming m!

[texasdago 7575]

3 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

I just dont buy that he would launch nukes, sorry I just dont. Yes he's an narcissistic lunatic but he's also been through kgb training and knows what launching would entail and while hes proven not to give 2 fucks I don't think he wants to go down as the man who ended the world.

As for the nato line, yeah I dont see him attacking nato yet but there are what half a dozen or so ex soviet countries that aren't in nato, so guess they are next..

I can absolutely buy it.   Good God, how are we still having this conversation?  Enforcing a no-fly zone, directly engaging with Russian aircraft, being potentially shot down via friendly fire (because it can happen), would be moronic.  God.  

Here's your bomber... 

 

 

[Smax 3800]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It's literally written into Russian engagement doctrine.  Escalate to deescalate.  

 

I'm well aware of this, like you I've read a lot about Russian military doctrine tactics especially over the past month, so unless this is your field of study and or profession, step down off that high horse as you are just as much an expert on this topic as I am

[956 Worldwide 34728]

9 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Makes me wonder:

1.  Was this really a blunder on the part of the military leadership (to send conscripts)? 

2.  An excuse for why the Russian invasion is going so poorly.

3.  A different excuse for Putin to send in "regular" Russian Army troops who may or may not do better in combat.  

It was not a blunder.  Russia was never going to be able to mobilize on this scale without putting conscripts into combat units. You’re missing a fourth option “lie about what happened and also lie about what you will do to fix it.”

 

[Smax 3800]

Just now, texasdago said:

I can absolutely buy it.   Good God, how are we still having this conversation?  Enforcing a no-fly zone, directly engaging with Russian aircraft, being potentially shot down via friendly fire (because it can happen), would be moronic.  God.  

Here's your bomber... 

 

 

oh no a neg how will I ever recover...

[texasdago 7575]

Just now, Smax said:

oh no a neg how will I ever recover...

Time heals all wounds

[Smax 3800]

Just now, texasdago said:

Time heals all wounds

aint no wound homey

[Skipper 6136]

Nothing like people wading into this multi-year thread on the afternoon of war day 14 with drive-by hot take after hot take. SMH.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Skipper

[The Dog 44066]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It was not a blunder.  Russia was never going to be able to mobilize on this scale without putting conscripts into combat units. You’re missing a fourth option “lie about what happened and also lie about what you will do to fix it.”

 

Yup. He's looking for people to throw under the bus in order to save his ass. 

[BabaYaga 15302]

1 minute ago, Smax said:

He doesn't have to take it, hes not going to occupy it, he will level everything and we will just sit here and watch as their will be nothing left.

What?  The point of taking Ukraine is it brings a large economic influx of its economy and resources to Russia and provides a buffer against the west.  The entire intent was to take it intact in a matter of a few days.  He needs it intact or it's worthless to him.  His whole problem is the perception of his vaunted military is shattered and now he's stuck.  Ukraine is going to grind what is left of his forces into a shadow of what they were, and with the sanctions, how does he replace them?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Nothing like people wading into this multi-year thread on the afternoon of war day 14 with drive-by hot take after hot take. SMH.

[Nicole44 22067]

 

[phdhorn 6224]

41 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

So we just sit here and watch him annihilate a country we signed to protect... the sanctions are bullshit and by the time they really start impacting the people we need it to, this will be over and Putin will have won. He will have the shown world again that Russia and anyone on edge with nuke capabilities can take whatever the fuck they want and nato and the world will sit there and debate what to do about it but in the end do nothing of substances. Yeah funneling weapons and stuff, it helps but come one do any of us REALLY think Ukraine is going to defeat the Russian military? No, they damage it but if you all are of the belief that if the west backs him corner he'll nuje, then he will certainly unleash more convectional hell on the Ukrainian people over the next few weeks to speed this up. China and Norks are watching closely at our response here an right now its looking they have the greenlight to do whatever the fuck they want with minimal repercussions.

 

We are either the good guys or we aren't

Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Commander of NATO, was just on and he said the exact same things as Petraeus. That while these Ukraine victories over Russia are welcome and wonderful things, in the long run it's actually what you said -that Russia's playbook is to grind it out and use their superior numbers while they turn a lot of Ukrainian cities into rubble. That's what's going to happen and I don't know the solution to stopping it except Rush's own complete collapse.

However, if things go worse for Russia and Putin sees no other resort, he'll use nukes - it's hard coded into their strategy. And yes, I think their nukes are formidable. Because the generals and knowledge people I've read think they are. That with nukes, there's not a lot of room for ineptitude like the conventional war so far.

My opinions aren't necessarily the generals', and like you I would love to see something done. But tese guys know far better than me what's happening and they're all saying these things to prevent worldwide calamity.

This is a war unlike any in history, and over 80 years since a country as powerful has initiated aggression.

The only thing I would add is I think it's pretty clear that if Putin directly tangles with a NATO country unprovoked, or attacks one, unfortunately it's on on a global scale and we're all in and I don't think there's much deliberation there and I think North Korea and China absolutely definitely know that and can see that, that's why China is being so guarded in their public statements. Nukes will be used, probably tactical and more locally destructive. This isn't about punishing Russia, this is about saving the world now, and involves the most nuclear-armed country on the planet.  I certainly respect your opinion and many people feel that way, that we just can't stand back, but I also can see it being 20 times worse than it is now, affecting most of the planet once the buttons start getting pushed. It's not a good choice, I understand. For now I'll stick with the pain of having to restrain effective attacks and hopefully coming up with a strategy to get this done. I would not want to be a general right now.

We've really never been this close to military-induced catastrophe. Certainly it's worth being careful before we take the leap. Once we take it, we will see nuclear war.

Edited March 9, 2022 by phdhorn

[956 Worldwide 34728]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

What?  The point of taking Ukraine is it brings a large economic influx of its economy and resources to Russia and provides a buffer against the west.  The entire intent was to take it intact in a matter of a few days.  He needs it intact or it's worthless to him.  His whole problem is the perception of his vaunted military is shattered and now he's stuck.  Ukraine is going to grind what is left of his forces into a shadow of what they were, and with the sanctions, how does he replace them?

I cannot recommend this short book enough for anyone who is interested in how wars—more often than not— don’t end even after original political aims are no longer tenable and long after a rational accounting would call for one side’s surrender or abandonment. 
 

http://cup.columbia.edu/book/every-war-must-end/9780231136662

[SL Xpress 7516]

6 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

I can see him increasing the indiscriminate shelling of major cities and bombing as well, to the point that Aleppo looked tame. He doesn't have to take it, hes not going to occupy it, he will level everything and we will just sit here and watch as their will be nothing left.

Well, I don’t think the fire bombings of Dresden or the atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima make Aleppo look tame. But, yeah. Aleppo, Sarajevo, Grozny. That’s the playbook alright. I’d recommend you look away, because as you’ve alluded it’s going to be a horror show. There’s still not going to be a no fly zone. Never ever ever ever.

And it doesn’t matter how much political pressure is exerted, either. Because the president and other NATO leaders are being briefed about different scenarios, and the ones that include a no fly zone have a big mushroom cloud on the cover - as if it was designed by Lyndon B. Johnson’s presidential campaign ad team.

[Brisketexan 105161]

Wait….we’re worried about Putin taking Armenia next? Ok. It would be super-easy, considering the fact that Russia already has a large base not far from the capital, has a lot of friendly oligarchs there, etc. Armenia IS an example of a former Soviet republic that would fold in an hour and let Putin install a puppet government. And the world would let him, and rightly so.
He won’t, though….because there’s literally zero reason for him to make a move on Armenia. It’s worthless to him.
As for former Soviet republics like the Baltics, they’re NATO. An attack on them triggers article V, and everyone knows it.
Finally….attack them with what? He’s busy diverting all of his frontline forces to Ukraine. Where they are taking a beating. Great outcome.

[BabaYaga 15302]

More good news

From the other tweets echoing what many of us are saying - time in not in Russia's side:

Quote

"Bad morale, lack of manpower" is a huge issue on the Russian side. "They're calling in reservists, offering money and contracts to people to go fight and, as you've seen, relying on conscripts."

"It's not a popular war in the Russian military from what we've seen. People are terrorized, threatened with lawsuits if they decline to fight."

Anti-armor missiles are "the superstars right now." Ukraine still has "decent air defenses, especially short- to mid- range."

One reason why Russian fixed-wing aircraft are being shot down is that "cloudy weather is forcing them to fly at lower altitudes."

"Russia doesn't have the power to keep going like this for very long. Time isn't on their side, nor do they have a recipe for winning. They can't win hearts and minds, that's for sure."

In two weeks, Russia has used up "a lot of their precision-guided missiles, a valuable commodity in their arsenal."

"As long as the Western resupply channels remain open and Ukraine still fields a decent number of fighters, then they're OK."

 

[TexasEd 8067]

 

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by TexasEd

[BabaYaga 15302]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I cannot recommend this short book enough for anyone who is interested in how wars—more often than not— don’t end even after original political aims are no longer tenable and long after a rational accounting would call for one side’s surrender or abandonment. 
 

http://cup.columbia.edu/book/every-war-must-end/9780231136662

All true.  My counter to this is the supply or men and material from Russia.  See what I just posted.  Their army is being chewed up bit by bit and is not on a sustainable trajectory as long as the flow of weapons from the west continues.  This is Putin's biggest problem as it was ours in Vietnam and Afghanistan.  

[Macanudo 12992]

5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

 

I hope the mayor replied with "Nuts!"

[TexasEd 8067]

You can see the first hit a few blocks away and then right next door.  Just shelling houses.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by TexasEd

[Nicole44 22067]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

Well, I don’t think the fire bombings of Dresden or the atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima make Aleppo look tame. But, yeah. Aleppo, Sarajevo, Grozny. That’s the playbook alright. I’d recommend you look away, because as you’ve alluded it’s going to be a horror show. There’s still not going to be a no fly zone. Never ever ever ever.

And it doesn’t matter how much political pressure is exerted, either. Because the president and other NATO leaders are being briefed about different scenarios, and the ones that include a no fly zone have a big mushroom cloud on the cover - as if it was designed by Lyndon B. Johnson’s presidential campaign ad team.

There is not just Putin pidick that he is pushing that button This is politicians at work. Not surprisingly awful

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

13 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

I can see him increasing the indiscriminate shelling of major cities and bombing as well, to the point that Aleppo looked tame. He doesn't have to take it, hes not going to occupy it, he will level everything and we will just sit here and watch as their will be nothing left.

Yes Putin will most likely level any city in his way.

[Nicole44 22067]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Wait….we’re worried about Putin taking Armenia next? Ok. It would be super-easy, considering the fact that Russia already has a large base not far from the capital, has a lot of friendly oligarchs there, etc. Armenia IS an example of a former Soviet republic that would fold in an hour and let Putin install a puppet government. And the world would let him, and rightly so.
He won’t, though….because there’s literally zero reason for him to make a move on Armenia. It’s worthless to him.
As for former Soviet republics like the Baltics, they’re NATO. An attack on them triggers article V, and everyone knows it.
Finally….attack them with what? He’s busy diverting all of his frontline forces to Ukraine. Where they are taking a beating. Great outcome.

No! Why would we be worried about Russia/Chinese attacks on US? Canada and Mexico and South America can rest safe bc their policies are super awesome! (NOT)

[MillerEP 30492]

[MoJames 8244]

17 minutes ago, Smax said:

aint no wound homey

what is a wound homey?

[BabaYaga 15302]

What are the Russian KIA figures now two weeks into the fight?  6K?  9K?  Somewhere in between?  This, plus the massive material losses have only one outcome.  By summer these numbers could be over 100K easily.  Those are WWI-esq levels of slaughter

[Smax 3800]

7 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Commander of NATO, was just on and he said the exact same things as Petraeus. That while these Ukraine victories over Russia are welcome and wonderful things, in the long run it's actually what you said -that Russia's playbook is to grind it out and use their superior numbers while they turn a lot of Ukrainian cities into rubble. That's what's going to happen and I don't know the solution to stopping it except Rush's own complete collapse.

However, if things go worse for Russia and Putin sees no other resort, he'll use nukes - it's hard coded into their strategy. And yes, I think their nukes are formidable. Because the generals and knowledge people I've read think they are. That with nukes, there's not a lot of room for ineptitude like the conventional war so far.

My opinions aren't necessarily the generals', and like you I would love to see something done. But tese guys know far better than me what's happening and they're all saying these things to prevent worldwide calamity.

This is a war unlike any in history, and over 80 years since a country as powerful has initiated aggression.

The only thing I would add is I think it's pretty clear that if Putin directly tangles with a NATO country unprovoked, or attacks one, unfortunately it's on on a global scale and we're all in and I don't think there's much deliberation there and I think North Korea and China absolutely definitely know that and can see that, that's why China is being so guarded in their public statements. Nukes will be used, probably tactical and more locally destructive. This isn't about punishing Russia, this is about saving the world now, and involves the most nuclear-armed country on the planet.  I certainly respect your opinion and many people feel that way, that we just can't stand back, but I also can see it being 20 times worse than it is now, affecting most of the planet once the buttons start getting pushed. It's not a good choice, I understand. For now I'll stick with the pain of having to restrain effective attacks and hopefully coming up with a strategy to get this done. I would not want to be a general right now.

We've really never been this close to military-induced catastrophe. Certainly it's worth being careful before we take the leap. Once we take it, we will see nuclear war.

 

Thats fair and I agree with much of what you've said but god damn man its been bad over the past week but this maternity hospital.. and Russia will say it was an accident or whatever meanwhile they target similar non military instillations and do the same thing over and over. Its frustrating and maddening, at the end of this when hes decided its done, there will be nothing left (structurally) in Ukraine. I guess the positive is he couldn't take the country but the loss of life on both sides and for what? IDK why this one is hitting me the way its, we've seen destruction from war in the news every day for the past 20 years or so but I'm really pissed off at this whole thing

[MillerEP 30492]

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by MillerEP

[Smax 3800]

Edited March 9, 2022 by Smax

[Chopper 17239]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Here's how you keep low flying Russians at bay

 

Have read UKR has had the success against Russian bombers they've had is because of the low clouds, the Russians are having to fly low. I'm looking forward to hopefully seeing the Star Streak system do some more damage.

36 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Makes me wonder:

1.  Was this really a blunder on the part of the military leadership (to send conscripts)? 

2.  An excuse for why the Russian invasion is going so poorly.

3.  A different excuse for Putin to send in "regular" Russian Army troops who may or may not do better in combat.  

Yes, Putin knew they were sending conscripts. No doubt. The war was his plan. He thought they'd take Kyiv in 2 days and nobody would mind. Now that they have up to 10k dead soldiers it's a different story and he's trying to cover his ass by blaming his underlings.

26 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Did we really want Phillip Morris to exit? Is there a way to add some exceptions?

One amendment to Phillip Morris staying. One small addition to their cigarette recipe in order to hasten death. 30 or 40 years is too long. Special recipe for Russian market.

[Guest Lobo]

I'm starting to think that Putin is ordering his military to deliberately target civilians.  

[Gap03 3308]

10 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Fucking Saul from Homeland dropping knowledge ...

J/k.  Another sobering viewpoint, though ...

[TexasEd 8067]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

They said using this weapon is illegal.

 

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[gmr548 16584]

 
I am extremely disappointed in the US/Nato for not enforcing a no fly zone. Its past time to call putins bluff. Its simple, make it known we are not engaging Russian forces in Russia, we are defending a sovereign nations airspace at their request, if you (putin) decide to send your airforce into said sovereign nation without their permission, you will be shot down. The choice is yours

I am extremely disappointed that someone associated with the University of Texas would produce a take that so spectacularly fails consider any potential consequences and their weight.

 
 
I just dont see him having the balls to do that and I'd bet on it. 1000 pound air bombing a hospital, its time to end his air ops

So, just so I’m clear, your argument is that the leader who is resorting to dropping said 1000lb air bomb on a hospital because things are going that poorly against an overmatched neighbor won’t resort to nuclear weapons when confronted with fighting a superior conventional force? And that makes sense to you to the point of supreme, bet the world on it confidence?

[ABSR 5319]

8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

What are the Russian KIA figures now two weeks into the fight?  6K?  9K?  Somewhere in between?  This, plus the massive material losses have only one outcome.  By summer these numbers could be over 100K easily.  Those are WWI-esq levels of slaughter

Almost more than KIA is what are the number of injured?  Is it 3X, 5X, 10X the KIA's?   

If we say 6K KIA and conservatively 3X injured, that is 24K of the 200K force that is OOO.   I think it is likely that the KIA numbers and thee injured factors are higher.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10326]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Wait, wut? So you think the world would be a better place to live in if every country in the world had access to nuclear weapons? Is that your final answer?

I don't, but do you also think Putin would have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine still had its nuclear weapons?

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by MonkeyDoughnut

[Guest Lobo]

His latest bombing orders are rather confusing.  I mean, he's a genius...right?  But this kinda payload on obviously civilian targets...with children inside?  

Da fuh?  Is this was "Strong Leadership" looks like?  

[Nicole44 22067]

Old dudes with beards are hot still! 

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

Thats fair and I agree with much of what you've said but god damn man its been bad over the past week but this maternity hospital.. and Russia will say it was an accident or whatever meanwhile they target similar non military instillations and do the same thing over and over. Its frustrating and maddening, at the end of this when hes decided its done, there will be nothing left (structurally) in Ukraine. I guess the positive is he couldn't take the country but the loss of life on both sides and for what? IDK why this one is hitting me the way its, we've seen destruction from war in the news every day for the past 20 years or so but I'm really pissed off at this whole thing

We are very much in a helpless situation here and we are all angry.  We are watching evil play out and its a helpless feeling.  There are some things we can do as private citizens to help:

1.  Consider donating to organizations like habitat for humanity in both Romania and Poland.  (Moldova may fall, Hungary who knows with them).  Housing is going to be a huge issue.  Perhaps we can help getting 3D printing operations up and running quickly.

2.  Boycott all products of Russian (shouldn't be hard to do)

3.  Remember when you fill up your car, however annoying the additional cost is, that no one is shelling your home or community.  If this is the biggest sacrifice we have to make we are doing ok.  

4.  Call your congressmen and Senators and let them know how you feel.  Encouraging and supporting US foreign aid to Ukraine, Poland, and Romania is critical.  

[Ag with kids 581]

7 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Fucking Saul from Homeland dropping knowledge ...

J/k.  Another sobering viewpoint, though ...

Hello.  My name is Inigo Montoya.  You invaded Ukraine.  Prepare to die.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Old dudes with beards are hot still! 

 

I mean… to be fair lots of people in Russia heard him at the time. Putin just had them all killed.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Doc Reeves

[Armybrat 40851]

4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Old dudes with beards are hot still! 

 

[BabaYaga 15302]

Just now, ABSR said:

Almost more than KIA is what are the number of injured?  Is it 3X, 5X, 10X the KIA's?   

If we say 6K KIA and conservatively 3X injured, that is 24K of the 200K force that is OOO.   I think it is likely that the KIA numbers and thee injured factors are higher.

Can't disagree with that.  Why I say this is simply not sustainable for Russia.  The longer this draws out, the more evident that there is nothing being "held back" of any consequence.  This is who they are, and better yet, the west is devouring every single byte of data on this war possible. This will be a paradigm shifting confrontation.   Single soldier anti armor/plane weapons have always been deadly, but there have never been seen in mass like this.  They are also easy to move, and relatively cheap (compared to a tank/plane), and easy to operate.  Flooding Ukraine with these seems the key.  I see this going the way of the Finnish War with Russia. 

There will be a parlay....Russia is desperately trying to take Maruipol.  They get the port, direct land link to Donbas, and the Ukes lose a steel making city.  So like the Fins, they bloody the attackers to stalemate and lose a little land in the process, but remain relatively intact and independent.