Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[South Austin 52600]

11 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Guys no more pron names.  This is the [serious] thread.

You just don’t want to admit you drove a Pinto.

[BamaATL 16593]

12 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

OK, then play that out a little further.  They use nukes.  Tactical nukes so as not to trigger full scale mutually assured annihilation.  How, then, does Russia EVER reintegrate into the multinational stage?  They become untouchable even for the dregs of the international community.  Complete and utter collapse of not only the Russian economy, but the entire society.  They are cut off from absolutely everything.  All markets.  All trade.  Everything.  If he's too stupid to play that forward, well, there's no hope for them.

I don't agree that nukes are embedded in the playbook.  He'll rattle his sabres that they are.  But that would be a genie he would never get back in the bottle.

I have to think even Putin sees that there is no way back for "his" Russia.  That could prove to be a disaster because he may well choose the unthinkable because he has nothing to lose. 

The long way back for Russia doesn't involve Putin at all.  It involves a severely reformed Russia with free and fair elections (with UN monitoring), nuclear disarming, and believe it or not a carrot to an eventual NATO membership (way down the line).  All those should be on the table with these steps integrated into a Russian reintroduction to foreign markets as they meet criteria.  

[Sbbruin 21884]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It involves a severely reformed Russia with free and fair elections (with UN monitoring), nuclear disarming, and believe it or not a carrot to an eventual NATO membership (way down the line).  All those should be on the table with these steps integrated into a Russian reintroduction to foreign markets as they meet criteria.  

[Longhornlove 4883]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The problem with #3 is that all of the fuckups leading up until now have put the Russian Army into a bind in terms of moving any troops into Ukraine.  Lots of extremely valuable and probably irreplaceable (thanks to sanctions) tanks and other armored vehicles (command/control, air defense, etc.) have been knocked out.  People can talk about everything he has left in his quiver of ground forces, but how much of it works, how much of it will have the same maintenance problems (rust, tire rot, etc.) that we've already seen, and how does he get it that last 90-120km into Ukraine?

Oh, and these last two weeks have produced a shitload of now extremely-experienced Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, two weeks of Ukraine setting up defenses and ambush and chokepoints, and a massive influx of all kinds of weapons, missiles, etc. so Russian infantry coming in will face a much tougher fight.  

Yep, this era we live in with a global economy where everyone relies on someone else for products is really gonna fuck Russia. During WWII, if you needed something you made it yourself or the we(The USA) made it.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

20 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

Yep, this era we live in with a global economy where everyone relies on someone else for products is really gonna fuck Russia. During WWII, if you needed something you made it yourself or the we(The USA) made it.

Need to find the article from the past week about that Putin is still operating a vertical economy, most stuff is in a few sectors, and RU military doctrine is a left over from the vertical economy era while the rest of the world is moving to a horizontal economy around technology and innovation. The places that are providing cheap tech labor are starting to have a middle and upper middle class.  Basically the modern version of a rising tide lifts all boats.

Edited March 10, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Need to find the article from the past week about that Putin is still operating a vertical economy, most stuff is in a few sectors, and RU military doctrine is a left over from the vertical economy era while the rest of the world is moving to a horizontal economy around technology and innovation. The places that are providing cheap tech labor are starting to have a middle and upper middle class.  Basically the modern version of a rising tide lifts all boats.

Earlier this week, when they shot a missile at the TV tower, thinking that they could disrupt Ukraine's ability to get info to the people it struck me as a group of guys that are extremely out of touch with the new reality.  That's only one way people get info, and its now one of the smaller ways.  It oddly reminded of the Schitts Creek episode where the whole joke was about how out of touch Eugene Levy's character (find us on the tweeters, the Lee Iacocca quotes, etc).  Of course this isn't a joke, but it sure did make me think of that.  

Their lack of a grasp of the modern economy is part of this whole thing.  You can't go it alone anymore, not even close. 

[Homercles 10206]

3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

and the pair on these two guys.....

3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

and the pair on these two guys.....

 

[immamac 43028]

I think even china says fuck you we are out if they use a tactical nuke. China doesn't want this shit continuing, it's harder to negotiate with pissed off America than it is with everything's cool in the world America. 

[Lurch 5931]

Guys no more pron names.  This is the [serious] thread.

Agreed. Have some respect, assholes!

Yours truly, Genesis Man in The Box

[cactusflinthead 27602]

Biscayne Heard it on the X

[phdhorn 6224]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I entered the military just after the Soviet Union broke up, and we were still training as if we might fight the Russians and a part of that training was dealing with NBC warfare (nuclear, biological, chemical).  It was well understood that the Russians saw nukes as a "tactical" weapon to use if things weren't going their way, and there's nothing to indicate that has changed - they still have a massive nuclear arsenal for a reason.

And the fact that their military is apparently shit/gutted by oligarchs/deficient in many areas (maintenance, etc.) means they would find their backs to the wall even quicker than in the 1980s or even early 1990s.

We abandoned the idea of tactical nukes for the most part, for a lot of reasons, including that we'd be using them on friendly territory, while the Russians saw them as both defensive and offensive weapons should they feel the need to crash through the Fulda Gap.  We also hit a point in the 1980s and 1990s where our precision guided weapons could do what some past planners would have used nukes for, while it's clear the Russians aren't nearly at the same level we are in terms of precision.  Cheaper/easier to consider a nuke for them.

But to put it into perspective, Russia has around 2,000 "tactical" (low-yield/non-strategic) nukes that could easily be used in Ukraine, while we have 200 that fall into that category, because it's a part of their doctrine and has been for probably 50 years or more.

We run the risk that because Russia has so many tactical/non-strategic nukes ready to be used within a theater of war while we have so few, that they will feel like we can't really do tit-for-tat at that level, and that we will refuse to escalate to the strategic/city-killing level.

Good point on the bolded. I had wanted to post that at some point during this thread and kept forgetting. Russia has an overwhelming superiority of tactical nukes.

[atomheartbevo 89791]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

OK, then play that out a little further.  They use nukes.  Tactical nukes so as not to trigger full scale mutually assured annihilation.  How, then, does Russia EVER reintegrate into the multinational stage?  They become untouchable even for the dregs of the international community.  Complete and utter collapse of not only the Russian economy, but the entire society.  They are cut off from absolutely everything.  All markets.  All trade.  Everything.  If he's too stupid to play that forward, well, there's no hope for them.

I don't agree that nukes are embedded in the playbook.  He'll rattle his sabres that they are.  But that would be a genie he would never get back in the bottle.

I do agree with the others that think it would be a step too far for even China, but I also don't see how Putin backs out of this without losing power.

Things are only going to get worse for Russia as more and more experienced volunteers arrive and integrate with the Ukrainians, and all the while the West will be sending in massive amounts of weapons and aid, to knock out tanks and trucks and what not, that Putin won't be able to easily replace.

We know Putin is a coward of sorts, with the green screens, the long tables, the large rooms.

But who is he more afraid of - the West, or his own people if he admits failure and backs out of Ukraine?

[Constant 6755]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I do agree with the others that think it would be a step too far for even China, but I also don't see how Putin backs out of this without losing power.

Things are only going to get worse for Russia as more and more experienced volunteers arrive and integrate with the Ukrainians, and all the while the West will be sending in massive amounts of weapons and aid, to knock out tanks and trucks and what not, that Putin won't be able to easily replace.

We know Putin is a coward of sorts, with the green screens, the long tables, the large rooms.

But who is he more afraid of - the West, or his own people if he admits failure and backs out of Ukraine?

First, I completely agree with Putin being a coward.  No question about it.

My guess is that he could pack it up and retreat and still spin this with his propaganda, at least for a while.  But once the public began to figure out that while the conflict is over, none of what they had before is coming back, he'd have pretty significant problems.  That's why in my opinion he's more scared of his own people than he is of us.  If he plays his cards right, he still has his nukes to deter us, but how long can you really go detaining everyone that opposes you in your own country.  I know the Stalin purges were millions but could that still work today, I have no idea the conviction level of the internal Russian powers that could make that happen.  

[Buzzrock 14940]

2 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Anybody think Russia is going to have any assets left to invade a NATO country after another couple of weeks of this?

ABC reported this morning that 95% of the Russian invasion force is still intact. 

[Parliament 14293]

2 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

So they've done this in a few other places too I think?  Is Russia literally losing ground?

[Buzzrock 14940]

2 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Chevette Takin care of business.  

Mercedes “Voodoo” Chile

[conVINCEd 21469]

Mustang Thunder(struck).

[HOOKEM4 5042]

The Ukrainians have to have NV now right? Are these reports late or what? Seems they are taking stuff at night quite frequently...

[Buzzrock 14940]

 

[Buzzrock 14940]

 

[InkaUtexas 26097]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

So Iconic also means piece of shit? 

 

[Buzzrock 14940]

Anyone looking for a good deal on super high end real estate in London?

 

[InkaUtexas 26097]

2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Anyone looking for a good deal on super high end real estate in London?

 

Saudis are going to buy all that shit. 

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So Iconic also means piece of shit? 

 

Quite reliable, never lets you leave your oblast, perfect russian car

[Constant 6755]

18 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So they've done this in a few other places too I think?  Is Russia literally losing ground?

Hard to say for certain. It is just another data point that their army is total shit. 

[Constant 6755]

1 minute ago, Bravo said:

More generals are going to die.

 

 

Burn ‘em all. 

[Kennythetiger 9459]

2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

 

 

They’d either wreck, run out of gas, or get lost on the way to the fight. 

[Bevo 13600]

1 minute ago, Bravo said:

More generals are going to die.

 

 

I was talking with someone today who was telling me that Blackwater will pay some mercenaries with special skills about $450K. Standard pay is somewhere around $175K.

[Buzzrock 14940]

5 minutes ago, Bravo said:

More generals are going to die.

 

 

Is this another Ghost of Kyiv?

[Sawbonz 27587]

31 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

ABC reported this morning that 95% of the Russian invasion force is still intact. 

[grazinhorn 472]

Regal Frankenstein

[NeverMarryAStripper 21921]

55 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Good point on the bolded. I had wanted to post that at some point during this thread and kept forgetting. Russia has an overwhelming superiority of tactical nukes.

Any scenario in which we run out of tactical nukes is one in which the world ends.  

[Not a cat 5703]

29 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Lada sweet child of mine

[WBT 20666]

27 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So Iconic also means piece of shit? 

 

Car inventories man...even Crazy Vaclav's lot is going to be half empty.

 

[Lurch 5931]

More generals are going to die.
 
 

[FartingMonk 3608]

4 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Any scenario in which we run out of tactical nukes is one in which the world ends.  

Our supply of tactical nukes is actually pretty limited.  We have a bunch of conventional weapons that make the tactical nuke obsolete.  

[Parliament 14293]

29 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Saudis are going to buy all that shit. 

West Texas oilfield workers.

[tx 3 putt 77411]

29 minutes ago, Bravo said:

More generals are going to die.

 

 

 

god bless him. wish they had 100 more

[atomheartbevo 89791]

48 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

First, I completely agree with Putin being a coward.  No question about it.

My guess is that he could pack it up and retreat and still spin this with his propaganda, at least for a while.  But once the public began to figure out that while the conflict is over, none of what they had before is coming back, he'd have pretty significant problems.  That's why in my opinion he's more scared of his own people than he is of us.  If he plays his cards right, he still has his nukes to deter us, but how long can you really go detaining everyone that opposes you in your own country.  I know the Stalin purges were millions but could that still work today, I have no idea the conviction level of the internal Russian powers that could make that happen.  

The government apparatus in Russia is not nearly as big as it was during Stalin's days, but they still have a shit-ton of FSB employees, and the "National Guard" is not what we think of in terms of National Guard, it's basically well-equipped body guards of Russian leaders and a high-end federal police force of sorts that guards the government.

But there are also smartphones (notice the FSB/cops/etc. were stopping people on the streets of Moscow and examining their phones) and other ways of organizing and protesting that weren't available in the USSR days, and there's a whole younger generation or two that either don't remember the Soviet Union, or it was their childhood and they've grown accustomed to things being much different.

I can't imagine Putin closing off the internet to the outside world is making those folks too happy.

[tx 3 putt 77411]

Just now, Bravo said:

well, Canadians are flocking to Ukraine. They really hate russians. Who knew?

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19428]

17 minutes ago, grazinhorn said:

Regal Frankenstein

Regal Stinkfist. 

[atomheartbevo 89791]

 

[atomheartbevo 89791]

TLDR: Putin and his buddies planned the war with little input from military folks who could have gamed out a bunch of scenarios, and the economic/finance people weren't involved, so nobody on their side was like "hey, the West might drop these sanctions on us!"

[Parliament 14293]

16 minutes ago, Bravo said:

well, Canadians are flocking to Ukraine. They really hate russians. Who knew? At least there won't be a shortage of maple syrup.

 

 

Canada is basically the best of America, distilled down to like 40 million people.  And colder.  Much colder.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

50 minutes ago, Bravo said:

More generals are going to die.

 

 

Remind me to never shoulder check and always pick up that dude's tab.

[The Dog 44138]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

All y’all need to click and read this thread.

[Homercles 10206]

The Drive had an excellent article today on why the Russian AF is proving either unwilling, ineffective, or both in engaging a strong combined-arms campaign to steamroll Ukraine.  I’ll link it but here’s a few items I found informative:

1) Due to packaging complexities, few F/A aircraft have targeting pods and any capability in that realm is often built into the airframe.  Impact = outdated, hard-to-upgrade tech relying heavily on tv-guidance that is hindered by poor weather and requires lower altitudes in MANPAD territory

2) In Syria they operated primarily as small flights of similar aircraft.  In addition they get about half the training hours of western countries and lack high-immersion trainers.  Impact = limited ability to apply cohesive strike packages that combine escort, SEAD, refueling etc with the actual ordnance delivery.  
 

3) Half assed work up for a major operation…also the article theorizes that even local command had no idea the mission or timeline.  Impact = traditional work up for a major operation, such as syncing maintenance schedules or stockpiling appropriate ordinance was not done. 
 

4) No FAC.  There just aren’t any TACP/CC type dudes out there lazing targets or coordinating tactical targets of opportunity.  Impact = the Russians have to identify their own targets visually and thus further exposure to MANPAD engagement envelopes. 
 

5) The article doesn’t really go into it in depth but they have limited Mainstays or whatever their current AWACS-analog is.  I’ve wondered this myself.  Reading about how used airborne radar + combat controllers to have a wagon wheel of armed tactical aircraft ready to pounce in GWoT was interesting.   Impact = no air traffic control from the air either.  
 

Again I’ll mention a favorite book of my dads is called The Generals War and outlines all the planning that went into air tasking for GW1.  He (retired USAF O-6) had to read it as part of Air Command and Staff, and I think I’ll buy my own copy.  
 

Anyways here’s the article:  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44634/after-an-abysmal-start-heres-how-russias-application-of-airpower-in-ukraine-could-evolve

 

 

[immamac 43028]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

TLDR: Putin and his buddies planned the war with little input from military folks who could have gamed out a bunch of scenarios, and the economic/finance people weren't involved, so nobody on their side was like "hey, the West might drop these sanctions on us!"

I mean I think Putin may be a little like trump in that he believes his own lies a bit. The way this has gone down he has to have actually believed that Ukrainians would just be like ah fuck it and surrender immediately once bullets started flying and tanks started showing up. 
 

Everyone who keeps saying Russia doesn’t care about casualties is pretty stupid. The last time they didn’t care about casualties it led to today, a DECLINING population in a developed nation. It’s unheard of. Losing another 10k matters when you can’t sustain population. The way this is going it’s going to absolutely obliterate the Russian society and economy.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

29 minutes ago, Bravo said:

well, Canadians are flocking to Ukraine. They really hate russians. Who knew? At least there won't be a shortage of maple syrup.

 

 

When I was reading up on where to donate the Canadian Red Cross is high on the reputable list because Canada has a large Ukrainian diaspora and experience delivering aid to that part of the world.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/some-new-ways-to-help-ukrainians?utm_campaign=cta&s=r

Edited March 10, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP