Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89291]

Wow

 

[Thatguy 8290]

That track suit...... They really love them

 

 

[Hefeweizen 5305]

 

This seems ominous.

[Scary Stranger 1711]

 
This seems ominous.

Maybe Putin putting them where he can keep an eye on them.

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Thatguy said:

That track suit...... They really love them

 

 

That awkward moment when Italians in New Jersey look down and see they're wearing exactly what Russian assholes are wearing.  If I had the capital, I'd open up Newark Haberdashery later today.  

Also, the fleeing of Russian elites to the East makes sense.  Putin was dumb to come out of the gate at Chernobyl where the water table could be infected.  But at least he's enough of "a true genius" to know which way the jet stream works.  He will push more personnel (perhaps multiple divisions) into Ukraine with supply columns behind them.  They will then retreat under the narrative of "massive Ukrainian resistance (which is believable from what we've seen already)."  Satellite imagery will verify this.  And to "save" tens of thousands of his own troops, he will have no choice but to deploy a handful of low-yield tactical nuclear warheads over select targets.  The literal fallout is then observed, with massive casualties on both sides, including into actual Russian "air."  The negotiating table for the rest of humanity's future is completely reset and nothing is ever the same again.  

[Hefeweizen 5305]

10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

That awkward moment when Italians in New Jersey look down and see they're wearing exactly what Russian assholes are wearing.  If I had the capital, I'd open up Newark Haberdashery later today.  

Also, the fleeing of Russian elites to the East makes sense.  Putin was dumb to come out of the gate at Chernobyl where the water table could be infected.  But at least he's enough of "a true genius" to know which way the jet stream works.  He will push more personnel (perhaps multiple divisions) into Ukraine with supply columns behind them.  They will then retreat under the narrative of "massive Ukrainian resistance (which is believable from what we've seen already)."  Satellite imagery will verify this.  And to "save" tens of thousands of his own troops, he will have no choice but to deploy a handful of low-yield tactical nuclear warheads over select targets.  The literal fallout is then observed, with massive casualties on both sides, including into actual Russian "air."  The negotiating table for the rest of humanity's future is completely reset and nothing is ever the same again.  

Well that got dark in a hurry… I lean toward the keeping his most dangerous allies closest but yeah, the desperate nuclear dictator is a bad combination.

 

I wonder what our assessment of his nuclear capabilities look like.  That wargaming scenario has got to be sobering.

[Hefeweizen 5305]

Most counties this would be the loss of their entire military capabilities.  That is insane level of equipment loss.  

[statsman 5360]

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/death- ... 1647441273

Four Russian Generals Killed in Three Weeks Show Moscow’s Vulnerabilities in Ukraine
Russia’s fighting style and troubled communications are leading to deaths of high-ranking officers on the front lines

By William Mauldin , Thomas Grove and Bojan Pancevski
March 16, 2022 10:34 am ET

Four Russian brigadier generals have died in three weeks on the battlefield in Ukraine, Kyiv officials said, showing faults in Moscow’s ability to lead troops into battle. The fallout could shape the outcome of the war, according to Ukrainian and Western officials.

The deaths of Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov, Gen. Oleg Mityaev and Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky were announced by Ukrainian officials and confirmed by some Russian media reports, but not the Kremlin. They were veterans of Russia’s earlier conflicts in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, where Russia also lost generals.

The Russian military’s fighting style appears to have contributed to the losses, analysts say. Other factors include subpar radio communications and intense fighting, including ambushes by Ukrainian forces near cities. Replacing them with officers with similar experience could prove difficult.

“Their level of small-unit leadership, as they themselves recognize, is not great, which is why you see general officers much more forward in the field” in the Russian army, said Col. John “Buss” Barranco, a U.S. Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.

“They are overly dependent on senior people micromanaging from the front because they don’t have the same noncommissioned officer corps to exercise initiative,” he said.

Given the limited public details about the generals’ deaths, Western officers and analysts can’t say which Ukrainian actions against Russian officers have proven most successful, or whether mistakes on the Russian side left their officers vulnerable.

The Russian officers killed in action have a rank that translates as “major general,” which equates to one-star officers, analogous to brigadier generals or simply “brigadiers” in the west 

Their presence in the dangerous part of the conflict is partly due to a tradition that gives these generals broad authority not only to send troops into battle but also to decide when to adjust tactics due to unforeseen circumstances when encountering the enemy, analysts say.

“The Russian military is top heavy and the officer class plays a heavier role,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who has worked in Russia. “The military has very centralized decision making so it’s not shocking that these guys are up in the front at the friction points.”

By contrast, the U.S. military relies on more junior officers, including lieutenant colonels, whose training equips them to change course during a battle, with close communication with more senior officers far from the front lines. Only one U.S. general has died in combat in decades, the victim of an attack by a disgruntled Afghan soldier.

On the other side, Ukrainian units are also encountering heavy fire from the Russian army. Russia’s Defense Ministry regularly lists the number of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles it says it has destroyed—now 1,353—but hasn’t touted the deaths of Ukrainian military brass.

A dedicated team of Ukrainian military intelligence special operations forces has been tasked with specifically locating and targeting Russia’s officer class, according to a person in Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky’s inner circle.
“They look for high profile generals, pilots, artillery commanders,” said the person. “They have all their details, names, army numbers,” adding that the officers were then targeted either with sniper fire or artillery.

The person said the group is using all methods at its disposal to locate the Russian officers, who have often been found using unencrypted radio equipment, with transmissions that can be intercepted or pinpointed on a map, the person said. Training, drones and antitank weapons provided by North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries have helped Ukraine disrupt the Russian advance and put senior Russian officers at risk, Western officials say.

In modern warfare, soldiers are taught to disrupt the enemy’s leadership and communications as quickly as possible.

“We were always taught to look for the command and control vehicle and hit it first, and that is the node that is linking everything else,” Col. Barranco said.

The Russians’ deaths are a “reflection of poor discipline, lack of operational experience and a lack of training,” said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. He said the generals may have wanted to personally take charge of the situation or understand why the invasion is stalling. “They paid a price for that,” he said.

Another vulnerability is Russia’s use of communications equipment, former military officers and analysts said, citing publicly available information showing that Russian officers in Ukraine are relying to a large degree on mobile phones and unencrypted VHF and high-frequency radio contact rather than advanced, encrypted radios.

NATO aircraft with broad ability to detect radio transmissions have flown near Ukraine and Russia has accused Western intelligence agencies of funneling information to Kyiv to help with the war. Ukraine has its own considerable expertise dealing with Russian communications after facing Moscow in fights from Crimea to eastern Ukraine since 2014.

Even if the generals’ vehicles or nearby troops weren’t being targeted directly, the lack of effective radio communication means a Russian officer is more likely to wander into harm’s way on the battlefield, said Sam Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

“He would need to be in a place where he could understand what’s going on,” Mr. Cranny-Evans said. “If that means that he has to come within reach of the Ukrainians, then that is probably more a result of the fragmented nature of the battlefield.”

Write to William Mauldin at william.mauldin@wsj.com, Thomas Grove at thomas.grove@wsj.com and Bojan Pancevski at bojan.pancevski@wsj.com

[Guest Lobo]

5 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Well that got dark in a hurry… I lean toward the keeping his most dangerous allies closest but yeah, the desperate nuclear dictator is a bad combination.

 

I wonder what our assessment of his nuclear capabilities look like.  That wargaming scenario has got to be sobering.

Go back in there and chill them fellas out and wait for the cavalry, which should be arriving directly.  I'm sending you the WOPR.

[jdhorn92 1535]

Russian army seems like the gang that cant shoot straight.  Under the cover of nukes, they seem like bad asses..now we are getting a look under the hood vs a better opponent, and they are not faring too well. 

I think the continued targeting of civilians is an indication of how bad its going  militarily.  They are resorting to the low hanging fruit which is large stationary res buildings since they cant inflict large damage on many military units, installations etc..

 

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

4 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Russian army seems like the gang that cant shoot straight.  Under the cover of nukes, they seem like bad asses..now we are getting a look under the hood vs a better opponent, and they are not faring too well. 

I think the continued targeting of civilians is an indication of how bad its going  militarily.  They are resorting to the low hanging fruit which is large stationary res buildings since they cant inflict large damage on many military units, installations etc..

 

 

John Mearsheimer has been saying for eight years now that this has always been the Russian plan. If you orient yourself to the West, we will wreck you. Wreck, not occupy.

[Parliament 14064]

3 hours ago, Longhornlove said:

Saw a video the other day of one of the toys sent to Ukraine go in one side of an armored vehicle and out the other. I'm sure it instantly cooked the crew inside as the vehicle was completely on fire and continued rolling down the road. A quick death I hope.

The shaped charge in a St. Javelin is built to kill a tank.  Against a more lightly armored APC, that should be easy.

[Guest Lobo]

The Javelin anti-tank missile should be one of the new Apple emojis instead of the pregnant dude.

[UTGrad98 2252]

If I want to donate to Ukraine but want 100% of my dollars going there, what is a good website. I don't want anything where 20% goes to Ukraine and 80% to overhead costs. 

[RPM 26149]

17 hours ago, Fico said:

I'd pay 9.95 for some old shows right now if I knew where they were

Servant of the People is on Netflix now.

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by RPM

[clapclapclap 9000]

 

[CooterBrown 17808]

If I want to donate to Ukraine but want 100% of my dollars going there, what is a good website. I don't want anything where 20% goes to Ukraine and 80% to overhead costs. 

Any charity that states 100% goes to Ukraine is a scam. The best charities run at least 10-15% overhead. There are always expensive logistics costs with moving goods, especially to a war zone.

[UTGrad98 2252]

2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Any charity that states 100% goes to Ukraine is a scam. The best charities run at least 10-15% overhead. There are always expensive logistics costs with moving goods, especially to a war zone.

This is good info. Thank you. That seems reasonable. 

[immamac 42339]

9 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

If I want to donate to Ukraine but want 100% of my dollars going there, what is a good website. I don't want anything where 20% goes to Ukraine and 80% to overhead costs. 

Airbnb's were doing this. 

I don't know if this is a bait by the Russians to just show weakness to bait anyone into actually fighting the real stuff. Seems like an extremely costly "feint" if that's the case.

If what we are seeing is actually true though it makes it all the more important to make it clear it means war to send Russia any materials for nukes. No new nukes will have the nukes they have decaying and likely not being able to be serviced - denuclearization over a 75 year period by essentially not letting them have new ones. I'm still very optimistic that this is the beginning of the end of nuclear arsenals. 

[Hefeweizen 5305]

Just in case anyone thinks China is an actor for any kind of positive outcome.  They’re not, and Fuck China.

[RPM 26149]

World Central Kitchen is worthy. You don't have to donate to feed cold, hungry refugees. But it'd be a lot cooler if you did.

[Parliament 14064]

I know religion is not well liked on Surly, especially Catholicism.  But consider donating to your local Ukrainian Catholic church.

[Francisco 2.0 32289]

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19294]

1 minute ago, RPM said:

World Central Kitchen is worthy. You don't have to donate to feed cold, hungry refugees. But it'd be a lot cooler if you did.

If you work for a big company, there's a good chance they will match your donation to WCK. There's a box you can check on their web form, and all the companies they have match agreements with will show up in a drop down. Select your employer, and that's all you've got to do. 

[Francisco 2.0 32289]

 

 

[Captainant 27222]

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Ooooh wee here Putin goes nationalizing all the valuable property and assets! Running like rats from a sinking ship

[956 Worldwide 34196]

14 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

John Mearsheimer has been saying for eight years now that this has always been the Russian plan. If you orient yourself to the West, we will wreck you. Wreck, not occupy.

This is not Russia’s way of fighting Ukraine, it’s Russia’s way of war in general.  They used this technique in Chechnya and in Syria (in combination with local fighters) and they’re doing it now in Ukraine. It’s a misreading of Mearsheimer to distill his theoretical view of international relations and great power politics into the tactics on the ground.  Russia is resorting to this way of warfare after its quick decapitation plan ran up against mud and Ukrainian drones. 
 

Mearsheimer and his theory could predict tensions over Ukraine but absolutely could not predict how this war would break out, much less the course it would take.  And the decision to do so was one that a good realist would not have made, which is another issue with his theories. World leaders keep doing things that a good realist would say isn’t in their interest.

My thoughts on a nuclear weapon would be Mariupol.  Russia would likely claim that all the civilians had left after numerous staged corridors, that Azov is there and they are Nazis, and would use it as an example of how far they can go. 

[DigglerontheHoof 20918]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Most counties this would be the loss of their entire military capabilities.  That is insane level of equipment loss.  

For comparison, according to Wikipedia the Germans lost 554 tanks, tank destroyers and assault guns, in 5 weeks at the Battle of the Bulge.

[Zhorn96 1772]

16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I know religion is not well liked on Surly, especially Catholicism.  But consider donating to your local Ukrainian Catholic church.

Aren’t they mostly Orthodox?  I genuinely don’t know but thought most of that part of the world preferred the Eastern church

[statsman 5360]

Tactical nukes are a worry. I’m assuming our intel advantage will let us know if they are in play. I see three strategies for the west, based on the order of events of their use:

 1. Order to use them made(dropped or launched)- US needs to tell China (the only foreign power that may be able to sway Putin) that if tactical nukes become the new normal, we can get some defensive tactical nukes to Taiwan. 
2. Order received by military operators- West to make sure Russian officer know that tactical nukes are a war crime and they will be pursued for the rest of their lives if they use them. 
3. Nukes dropped or launched- my hope is that the Russia tech in the bombs, bombers and missiles is as crappy as their other stuff. Hopefully we have EMP and IR tools to help them fail. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13385]

I would be wary of any charity for Ukraine that recently spun up due to this war. Even if their heart is in the right place, they could be inefficient with providing aid to Ukraine.

[Bateshorn 9853]

If you want to donate, aren’t sure about charities, it’s best to stick to the big dogs who are known for good governance and actual putting your money in the field, not the bureaucracy.  I’d go with World Central Kitchen or Doctors Without Borders (MSF).  
 

Both are in the field and helping refugees.  I think MSF is actually in Ukraine with field hospitals and such.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Constant 6689]

 

[Bateshorn 9853]

[Laxtonto 11887]

Just now, Constant said:

 

So we have already seen a purge at the executive staff level and now we are seeing it at the field/operational theater command level…

 

Yep, everything is fine and this was the plan all along…

[gmr548 16377]

If our BMDs can pull together the money to fire two head coaches in 4 years you'd think a group of the wealthiest men in the world could get rid of one dude everyone wants to see gone. 

Maybe they are trying to clandestinely recruit Urban Meyer

[clapclapclap 9000]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Maybe they are trying to clandestinely recruit Urban Meyer

Check out Shelley's twitter, she's at a Sochi beach today.

[Bateshorn 9853]

Yeah, I’m not sure your going to get lucky and execute generals until you find your Zhukov, Vlad. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Yeah, I’m not sure your going to get lucky and execute generals until you find your Zhukov, Vlad. 

Good luck anyway!

[BabaYaga 15189]

LOL

 

[Hefeweizen 5305]

Per above.  The purges have begun and will not stop until morale improves.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4962]

2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

 

This seems ominous.

 

57 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

These three things taken together makes me glad I don't live in any major urban areas. Might decide to take off work early, though...

[SL Xpress 7503]

21 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

 

 

These three things taken together makes me glad I don't live in any major urban areas. Might decide to take off work early, though...

Why Dubai, though? To escape a Russian purge?

Urals to either get them safe or to keep them close to Putin. That's a flight to the bunkers located there.

I assume Novosibirsk is the closest airport to a bunker in Siberia. Either that or people are being taken to gulags in their own jet aircraft.

 

 

[Brisketexan 104196]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Why Dubai, though? To escape a Russian purge?

Urals to either get them safe or to keep them close to Putin. That's a flight to the bunkers located there.

I assume Novosibirsk is the closest airport to a bunker in Siberia. Either that or people are being taken to gulags in their own jet aircraft.

 

 

Seems there are two destinations:

1 -- The Urals, for those close to the regime, who need to be kept even closer (it's hard to launch a popular revolt if you're in the bunker with Putin.  Friends close, enemies closer, all that stuff).

2 -- Dubai, for those who fear the regime.  If Putin is likely to come for you, and you don't have the support to stop it, you best get the fuck outta Dodge.

 

That's my hypothesis.  But who the fuck can understand or predict Russians?  They're fucking batshit.

[BabaYaga 15189]

5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Why Dubai, though? To escape a Russian purge?

Urals to either get them safe or to keep them close to Putin. That's a flight to the bunkers located there.

I assume Novosibirsk is the closest airport to a bunker in Siberia. Either that or people are being taken to gulags in their own jet aircraft.

 

 

If you have the cash, you can ball out in Dubai and get away with most anything.  While much of their assets are frozen, any good mob boss has "options" and other means at their disposal.  

[BabaYaga 15189]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

But who the fuck can understand or predict Russians?  They're fucking batshit.

[Brisketexan 104196]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I knew I was serving up a fat pitch down the middle -- glad someone hammered it.

[Guest Lobo]

I am just grateful that I live in a country where people would never believe in a disinformation campaign propagated by the Russian government.  

And I am obviously so super smart and do my own research that even if they brought that propaganda to our shores, I could see right through it!

At least we still hold that high standard.  At least I am that blessed...

[Auto Driller 2502]

Putin going full purge less than a month into the invasion tells you pretty much everything you need to know. They’ll be so busy executing “traitors” that Ukraine will be an afterthought pretty soon.

[immamac 42339]

1 minute ago, Auto Driller said:

Putin going full purge less than a month into the invasion tells you pretty much everything you need to know. They’ll be so busy executing “traitors” that Ukraine will be an afterthought pretty soon.

His psycho rant about cleansing the fifth column was telling. He's lost his marbles. I don't think there's a way out for him Except China, and they seem to be baiting him pretty hard.