Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[tx 3 putt 78,027]

8 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

I assumed it was a missile. Flying below radar in the dark is impressive.

im sure they had an assist with that one 

Edited April 1, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[DigglerontheHoof 21,348]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Absolutely.  But we get into a "real" war with Russia, it won't stop (assuming no nukes) at Russia's border.  It won't be like the first gulf war where we "just stop".  They can marshal untold numbers in defense of their homeland.  We've seen them stumble before, only to coalesce and fuck people up.   

Let's not get out over our skis just yet.  This is only the first quarter....

Yeah, you get onto Russian soil and you get into "land war in Asia" trap territory. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

[Parliament 14,416]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

[956 Worldwide 35,028]

Gazprom is exiting operations in its German daughter firm Gazprom Germania Gmbh. Gazprom Germania also has subsidiaries in the Czech Republic and Switzerland.  This is coming in the middle of fights over pricing for gas deliveries (of course, Putin wants them to pay in rubles) and a recent article in a trade newspaper that said Germany was considering nationalization of Gazprom Germania and the German branch of Rosneft.

We may be fixing to see who can withstand pain longer . . .

[Parliament 14,416]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's still cold there.  They might not be as...tender as you think. 

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

It’s hard to sort everything out, but sounds like the Russians have pulled out of even more areas near Kyiv.  Some are even saying they are trying to avoid being encircled or cut off by Ukrainian forces. 

[BabaYaga 15,428]

2 minutes ago, texastough said:

Back to Japan claiming sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands. Man I wish other countries like Finland who have lost territory to Russia would follow suit. Seems it would be the best way to help Ukraine right now short of direct NATO involvement. Divert Russia's military resources and attention from Ukraine. And, playing the long game, could help take out Putin. I know support for the Ukraine war is strong now, but if Putin came out of this with nothing of value gained in Ukraine, and loss of territory to Japan, Finland, etc., I imagine his support would take a huge hit in the homeland. Combined with sanctions eventually taking a huge toll on Russians, I don't see how Putin could survive it.

Nobody propagandas like Ivan.  This "us vs the world" narrative would fill every house.  We also assume the next leader is better?  What if he's ten times worse?  Too many variables to even work through. 

They need an on-ramp to get back.  That should be the message.  You stop.  We stop.  Regime change is implied, but never directly a stated goal.   

[AUS-97HORN 11,895]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

if they are anti tank they probably have a weight limit trigger

[BabaYaga 15,428]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

No clue, but they damn sure are not "anti tank".  Tiny little things.  Take off your legs, etc.  

[BabaYaga 15,428]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We may be fixing to see who can withstand pain longer . . .

Yep.  Been my point all along.  Who can stand the heat the longest.  Attrition tends to work that way.  

[956 Worldwide 35,028]

15 minutes ago, texastough said:

Back to Japan claiming sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands. Man I wish other countries like Finland who have lost territory to Russia would follow suit. Seems it would be the best way to help Ukraine right now short of direct NATO involvement. Divert Russia's military resources and attention from Ukraine. And, playing the long game, could help take out Putin. I know support for the Ukraine war is strong now, but if Putin came out of this with nothing of value gained in Ukraine, and loss of territory to Japan, Finland, etc., I imagine his support would take a huge hit in the homeland. Combined with sanctions eventually taking a huge toll on Russians, I don't see how Putin could survive it.

The difference is that the Kurile Islands are a longstanding dispute dating back to the post-World War II years that neither side has ever backed down on.  Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia.  I also think that as we try to keep global opinion pushing against Russia, we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

[Dahobbs 17,840]

12 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Absolutely.  But we get into a "real" war with Russia, it won't stop (assuming no nukes) at Russia's border.  It won't be like the first gulf war where we "just stop".  They can marshal untold numbers in defense of their homeland.  We've seen them stumble before, only to coalesce and fuck people up.   

Let's not get out over our skis just yet.  This is only the first quarter....

China or India could marshall untold numbers. Russia's current population is 50 million less than it was during world war 2. At the time, they had 60 million more people than the United States. Today, they have less than half our population. While your point isn't entirely invalid, let's not exaggerate Russia's manpower. The situation just isn't the same. (Yes, I realize the larger number also includes some former Soviet territories)

Edited April 1, 2022 by Dahobbs

[BabaYaga 15,428]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

China or India could marshall untold numbers. Russia's current population is 50 million less than it was during world war 2. At the time, they had 60 million more people than the United States. Today, they have less than half our population. While your point isn't entirely invalid, let's not exaggerate Russia's manpower. The situation just isn't the same. 

Everyone is high fiving over a few thousand dead Russians.  They gave up a hundred thousand against the Fins.  The aggregate isn't the point.  The point is they are willing and have shown they will blanket a conflict with millions of people and sacrifice them if necessary.  We will not.  Europe will not.  

[BabaYaga 15,428]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

This

[Dahobbs 17,840]

7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Everyone is high fiving over a few thousand dead Russians.  They gave up a hundred thousand against the Fins.  The aggregate isn't the point.  The point is they are willing and have shown they will blanket a conflict with millions of people and sacrifice them if necessary.  We will not.  Europe will not.  

If we are talking about nuclear war, manpower is irrelevant. I was speaking more to its ability marshal additional troops if smaller powers try and use this as an opportunity to take back some territory claimed by Russia. 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Dahobbs

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’s hard to sort everything out, but sounds like the Russians have pulled out of even more areas near Kyiv.  Some are even saying they are trying to avoid being encircled or cut off by Ukrainian forces. 

Example:

 

[jdhorn92 1,562]

UK going into Russia , albeit awesome to see, is one of the things a recent Russian spokesman said would put Nukes on the table. He said a “threat to the state” or something to that effected is the only way they would use them. 

Edited April 1, 2022 by jdhorn92

[tx 3 putt 78,027]

7 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Russian air power is crap 

[BabaYaga 15,428]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

If we are talking about nuclear war, manpower is irrelevant

I addressed this

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I was speaking more to it's ability Marshall additional troops if smaller powers try and use this as an opportunity to take back some territory claimed by Russia. 

They still have tens of millions of available people if necessary.  Quibbling over the aggregate is just tap dancing on a pin head.  Defending against an invasion is very, very different from going INTO Russian territory and trying to take it back. 

[Scheiss Meister 8,420]

15 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are those mines defective? Or just not designed to detonate when kicked from the side?

It takes considerably more pressure to trigger an anti-tank mine than an anti-personnel mine.  You don't want to waste the additional explosive power required to take out a tank on an individual.  Those mines were hastily laid, with no booby traps for sappers clearing them, so without the pressure on the trigger and no secondary triggering devices, it makes sense that they can be cleared that way.  Still a ballsy way to do it.

[BabaYaga 15,428]

4 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Still a ballsy way to do it.

Treat 'em like tannerite and take pop shots at them.....;)

All kidding aside, UA gear is Russian gear.  They must have a deep understanding of most of it from years of purchase and training.  

Edited April 1, 2022 by BabaYaga

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

 

[The Dog 44,340]

8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

It can't be overstated how significant this his and how horrifying this has to have been to Russian military leadership. 

6 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

UK going into Russia , albeit awesome to see, is one of the things a recent Russian spokesman said would put Nukes on the table. He said a “threat to the state” or something to that effected is the only way they would use them. 

They aren't going to do shit about this. 

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Example:

 

Gawd the Russians are fucking stupid. This stuff should be used to cover their retreat/repositioning and attack the Ukrainian military. Those are the guys who are blowing up your shit and killing your troops! 

I mean, I'm happy to see that Russia continues to fuck the goat hard but this is incredible incompetence.

[Brisketexan 105,789]

40 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This.  100% this.

This got me thinking about all the cheers about the inept Russian advances.  I forgot the Russians lost almost 100K men to the Finnish.  Europe chided them for their inept showing, and according to some historians, helped change the mind (or advance his timetable) Of Hitler to break their alliance and invade.  We all know how that turned out.

Napoleon as well.  Bolstered by earlier victories, the Russians "ripe" to be taken over.  Again, sound familiar?  

I hope the UA can hold on, but Russia and throw a smothering blanket of men at them.  Overconfidence can lead to rash decisions - talks of a NFZ, direct NATO involvement, etc.  Here's to hoping we stay the course in supplying aid and material to the UA, but a direct conflict can see this spill over if we are not careful.

 

32 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It ended there, but was precipitated by failed Russian advances.  We get into a shooting war with Russia, borders mean little.  The point was initial hubris can often lead to failed campaigns.  We need to slow our roll a little here.

This is definitely entering the "whoa there, young fella.....let's WALK down there and fuck all of 'em" stage.  Rushing ahead, overpressing any number of advantages, etc., is a good way to 1) get overextended and smoked by a counterattack, or 2) simply invite even more massive and indiscriminate attacks.  Waves of Russian bombers stacked full of 500 lb bombs, with the Russians not giving a fuck that you shoot down a few of them, can level a few cities.

Ukraine has to figure out how and where to press its advantage, and do so deliberately towards a specific end goal.  What is that end goal?  Not sure yet....

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Gazprom is exiting operations in its German daughter firm Gazprom Germania Gmbh. Gazprom Germania also has subsidiaries in the Czech Republic and Switzerland.  This is coming in the middle of fights over pricing for gas deliveries (of course, Putin wants them to pay in rubles) and a recent article in a trade newspaper that said Germany was considering nationalization of Gazprom Germania and the German branch of Rosneft.

We may be fixing to see who can withstand pain longer . . .

This is where it starts to get real for the rest of Europe.

Let's repeat this point: Germany abandoning its nuclear power was dumb as fuck.

21 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Nobody propagandas like Ivan.  This "us vs the world" narrative would fill every house.  We also assume the next leader is better?  What if he's ten times worse?  Too many variables to even work through. 

They need an on-ramp to get back.  That should be the message.  You stop.  We stop.  Regime change is implied, but never directly a stated goal.   

 

18 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The difference is that the Kurile Islands are a longstanding dispute dating back to the post-World War II years that neither side has ever backed down on.  Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia.  I also think that as we try to keep global opinion pushing against Russia, we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

Re: the off ramp from the war, on-ramp back into global commerce in some way......that still has to be one of the plays.  At this point, we're talking gambling and game theory.

Pushing Russian forces back to some acceptable line, and offering an off-ramp that allows the regime to stay in power while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty is like cashing out on a stock after you've made a bundle.  It's a good outcome.  Maybe the stock will go to the stratosphere later.  Or, maybe it will be Theranos.

Playing for the total win -- push Russia out of every corner of Ukraine, humiliate it, and hope for regime change?  Well, that's putting all the chips on the table, with a much lower chance of success.

Risks, rewards, tolerances for ongoing pain, all of those are in play.  That decision making and strategy is actually harder and more perilous than the act of warfighting itself.  Battles are where individual lives and pieces of territory are won or lost.  The decisions at the Zelensky level are where countries are won or lost.

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

This feels way too optimistic, but the OSINT map nerds are definitely tracking a lot of Russian withdrawals/defeats all over the place.  
 

 

[Hefeweizen 5,362]

This is starting to sound interesting…

[Hefeweizen 5,362]

And whoopsie I’m too slow.

 

 The invasion of Russia is about to begin?  Hope Ukraine stays in its lane here and doesn’t make the mistake of pursuing.  
 

Mcarthur at the Yalu comes to mind…

[F250 28,991]

40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,895]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

This feels way too optimistic, but the OSINT map nerds are definitely tracking a lot of Russian withdrawals/defeats all over the place.  
 

 

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

This is starting to sound interesting…

 

 

Honestly to me this screams "retreat to Belarus- then redirect by going through Russia to redeply in the East"

 

and what we are seeing is some unlucky Russian saps (5-10% of the main force in the area) were ordered to be the sacrificial rear guard

 

its kinda looking like a Dunkirk situation. 

If the Russians get to Belarus, they will be safe (Ukraine would really cause issues if they pressed the attack into Belarus), and whatever equipment the Russians  have left would then allow them to redploy  relatively safely through Russia to the other side.  albeit that might take 2 weeks.

[Brisketexan 105,789]

4 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

And whoopsie I’m too slow.

 

 The invasion of Russia is about to begin?  Hope Ukraine stays in its lane here and doesn’t make the mistake of pursuing.  
 

Mcarthur at the Yalu comes to mind…

That would be not just taking bait, but taking decoy bait.

Ukraine needs to keep forces deployed around Kyiv to defend against a second Russian (or even Belarussian) attack.  And the forces it DOES re-deploy....need to head east, to push back Russian advances there.  Slow and steady attrition and punishment wins this race.

[Chad Fuck 17,915]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

This map is crazy awesome if true.

 

[texastough 1,132]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That would be not just taking bait, but taking decoy bait.

Ukraine needs to keep forces deployed around Kyiv to defend against a second Russian (or even Belarussian) attack.  And the forces it DOES re-deploy....need to head east, to push back Russian advances there.  Slow and steady attrition and punishment wins this race.

I would argue Ukrainian forces should re-deploy south first, to relieve Mariupol, hopefully cut off supply lines coming through Crimea, and avoid being surrounded by russian forces in the east. But I don't know shit

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

From March 15.   Claims Russia would be in serious trouble by the 25th-26th.  Mark Hertling said something similar.  While slightly off by less than a week, it looks like they were right   

 

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

44 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

im sure they had an assist with that one 

I’m curious if the assist wasn’t a bit of radar evasive tech from route planning up to and including some toys we might have that aren’t well publicized.

[Parliament 14,416]

4 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

 

 

Honestly to me this screams "retreat to Belarus- then redirect by going through Russia to redeply in the East"

 

and what we are seeing is some unlucky Russian saps (5-10% of the main force in the area) were ordered to be the sacrificial rear guard

 

its kinda looking like a Dunkirk situation. 

If the Russians get to Belarus, they will be safe (Ukraine would really cause issues if they pressed the attack into Belarus), and whatever equipment the Russians  have left would then allow them to redploy  relatively safely through Russia to the other side.  albeit that might take 2 weeks.

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

[atomheartbevo 90,149]

 

[Brisketexan 105,789]

Just now, Parliament said:

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

They should do all that they reasonably can.  Every blowed up tank and blowed up soldier is one more that can't re-deploy and attack from the east.  The Ukrainian military goals need to remain 1) recapture territory where feasble, and 2) degrade Russian capabilities through attrition and supply destruction as much as possible.

[BabaYaga 15,428]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ukraine has to figure out how and where to press its advantage, and do so deliberately towards a specific end goal.  What is that end goal?  Not sure yet....

49 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,569]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

Belarus is ripe for a revolution but if I were Ukraine I wouldn't focus on them. Belarus isn't much of a risk since their leadership is too afraid of their own population to ever mount an attack on Ukraine. 

[Brisketexan 105,789]

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

I would argue Ukrainian forces should re-deploy south first, to relieve Mariupol, hopefully cut off supply lines coming through Crimea, and avoid being surrounded by russian forces in the east. But I don't know shit

Maybe.  I don't know the exact opposition on the ground in the competing potential points for counter-attack.  For now, Ukraine should deploy additional forces where it would do the most good.  That might be due east, it may be southeast -- I sure don't have that level of info.

[Chad Fuck 17,915]

6 minutes ago, texastough said:

I would argue Ukrainian forces should re-deploy south first, to relieve Mariupol, hopefully cut off supply lines coming through Crimea, and avoid being surrounded by russian forces in the east. But I don't know shit

This is what the push around Kherson is about.  Cut off the Crimean line to Mariupol at the narrowest point.  

[BabaYaga 15,428]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

The difference with the Falaise pocket was mechanized units that were fast moving.  I do not know if the UA has this capability?  This was facilitated by a massive breakout from the Normandy invasion and OVERWHELMING air power. 

[Brisketexan 105,789]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

Ultimately, I think that's what it will be.  A bridge between Donbass and Crimea.

But in exchange, Russia will have caused itself unspeakable damage, re-invigorated NATO (and maybe expanded it -- welcome, Sweden and Finland), re-invigorated the EU, crippled its ability to influence the West (RT isn't going to be allowed back in -- ever), lost some long-term markets for its gas, and solidified a sovereign Ukraine for generations to come.  That juice ain't worth the squeeze.  But it's still juice, at Ukraine's expense, and Putin can call that a "win."

[BabaYaga 15,428]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ultimately, I think that's what it will be.  A bridge between Donbass and Crimea.

But in exchange, Russia will have caused itself unspeakable damage, re-invigorated NATO (and maybe expanded it -- welcome, Sweden and Finland), re-invigorated the EU, crippled its ability to influence the West (RT isn't going to be allowed back in -- ever), lost some long-term markets for its gas, and solidified a sovereign Ukraine for generations to come.  That juice ain't worth the squeeze.  But it's still juice, at Ukraine's expense, and Putin can call that a "win."

They also still have roughly 40% of the EU's energy needs at their fingertips.  It could take a substantial amount of time to find alternatives to this.  Any incursion west was going to reinvigorate NATO.  I think Putin knew this.  He just didn't understand the nature of the Ukes and their desire to stay independent.  

[F250 28,991]

So Russia is engaged in a strategic retreat?

I assume this is well planned and organized reorganizing of Russian forces in the Ukrainian theater.

 

[The Dog 44,340]

7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

 

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ultimately, I think that's what it will be.  A bridge between Donbass and Crimea.

 

This is the most optimistic outcome for Russia at this point. Not the most likely.

For example, Russia's losses in the battle for Mariupol have been so great that these troops won't be available to do anything other than to occupy the city, and even then it may not be enough. 

Russia is having more success in the south than elsewhere, but the cost has been extremely high. Russian leadership's attitude towards human losses isn't what is relevant here - it's the fact that they just don't have enough capable bodies and hardware to keep fighting this way. 

What are the indications that Russia will do anything different that could lead to success? Everyone is talking about Russia entering a "second phase" - do the Russians even know what that is?

[BabaYaga 15,428]

Tail rotor optional

 

[dimyh 1,874]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

It ended there, but was precipitated by failed Russian advances.  We get into a shooting war with Russia, borders mean little.  The point was initial hubris can often lead to failed campaigns.  We need to slow our roll a little here.

Wait wait shouldn't it be all gas and no brakes? Oh SHIT you're right! Slow down boys!

[Hefeweizen 5,362]

Yeah I don’t think Russia gets to keep the lane bridge unless it wins some convincing battles in the south.  Momentum is a hell of a thing, and the amount of weaponry that Ukraine has received means they can throw a lot at retreating Russians.  
 

Russia made a huge miscalculation in not hitting enough infrastructure but I fully expect them to start really working on making it hard for Ukraine to retake anything past the Dnipr in the south.

 

 Crimea stays Russian but Mariupol won’t.  And that means the whole thing was an utter failure for Putin.