Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[SimonBolivar 10961]

2 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I realize one of the tweets above said this already, but I promise, as I woke up this morn and read the details and vids on the Belgorod attack,

I immediately realized those guys had to go Map Of Earth for probably 100+ Km, cross the boarder, go another 50Km or so, avoid anti air defenses (that are supposed to be FUCKING SUBSTANTIAL), drag their nuts on the oil depot, and return home, probably another 150Km under very real retaliatory threat.

and all I could think (again before I saw the tweet) was holy fuck the balls of those 4? pilots and copilots are fucking huge.

 

I saw a report from somewhere this morning that the people in Belgorod were hesitant to shoot it down as they fly the same choppers and weren't expecting the attack.

[ABSR 5325]

9 hours ago, TejanoAtUT said:

This is just my own  likely dumb musing, at least until Ukraine makes a statement.

Hoping not to jinx it, but having Ukraine hit the Russians on their own turf would be phenomenal, but if the Russians are claiming Ukraine attacked Belgorod, what are the odds the Russians carried out a false-flag op on their own fuel depot? 

The Ukrainians did not attack Russia.  They merely conducted a Special Military Operation.

[atomheartbevo 89851]

 

[Orange&White 5539]

29 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

I’m curious if the assist wasn’t a bit of radar evasive tech from route planning up to and including some toys we might have that aren’t well publicized.

Didn't the Ukes get a few RUS helos from the Kherov airport? Could this have been them flying formerly RUS birds that look to Russians like friendlies so no one fired at them?

[texastough 1129]

3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Yeah I don’t think Russia gets to keep the lane bridge unless it wins some convincing battles in the south.  Momentum is a hell of a thing, and the amount of weaponry that Ukraine has received means they can throw a lot at retreating Russians.  
 

Russia made a huge miscalculation in not hitting enough infrastructure but I fully expect them to start really working on making it hard for Ukraine to retake anything past the Dnipr in the south.

 

 Crimea stays Russian but Mariupol won’t.  And that means the whole thing was an utter failure for Putin.

I'm of the opinion that Russia might get to keep Crimea but nothing else. All Ukraine forces need to do is prevent Russia from taking and holding cities. They've mostly done that already. I don't believe Russia has the capability/resources to mount a second offensive anytime soon. If Russia simply digs into defensive positions in the countryside they are fucked. Ukraine won't need to eliminate all those forces, they can just starve them.

[BabaYaga 15331]

7 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I saw a report from somewhere this morning that the people in Belgorod were hesitant to shoot it down as they fly the same choppers and weren't expecting the attack.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

2 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Didn't the Ukes get a few RUS helos from the Kherov airport? Could this have been them flying formerly RUS birds that look to Russians like friendlies so no one fired at them?

The make would be the same. I’m sure IFF was off if installed. If they were detected they would have a familiar radar signature. Possible. 

[The Dog 44171]

3 minutes ago, texastough said:

I'm of the opinion that Russia might get to keep Crimea but nothing else. All Ukraine forces need to do is prevent Russia from taking and holding cities. They've mostly done that already. I don't believe Russia has the capability/resources to mount a second offensive anytime soon. If Russia simply digs into defensive positions in the countryside they are fucked. Ukraine won't need to eliminate all those forces, they can just starve them.

Ukraine needs to cut off supply lines from the separatist regions in order to do that. That's the biggest challenge for them IMHO.

[atomheartbevo 89851]

I’ve now come across multiple generals (2 US, one Australian, one Brit) who were firmly predicting back around March 15th that the Russians were going to have trouble maintaining their lines/holdings towards the end of March. 

Hertling said he was basing his info off of OSINT but I still wonder. Then again, the OSINT people have done a fantastic job of tracking all of this stuff.  Plus Western generals would probably be able to spot trends that others might ignore.  

[956 Worldwide 34816]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy shit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-sacks-two-ukrainian-generals-as-traitors-z7zvl3z5b?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648791300

 

I have seen this story about the fired generals and its not really great reporting from the western press.  The two people he fired were the heads of a directorate of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the head of the SBU in Kherson.  They have military ranks but they are working for the country's equivalent of the FSB.  SBU has a special forces unit and a broader mandate than western internal security agencies, in keeping with their Soviet legacy. But these were not people responsible for Ukraine's warfighting. 

[gmr548 16617]

Absolutely.  But we get into a "real" war with Russia, it won't stop (assuming no nukes) at Russia's border.  It won't be like the first gulf war where we "just stop".  They can marshal untold numbers in defense of their homeland.  We've seen them stumble before, only to coalesce and fuck people up.   
Let's not get out over our skis just yet.  This is only the first quarter....

I can’t tell if this is just a typo but I have to think that in this hypothetical, we would in fact stop ground forces at or near the Russian border. That lesson has been learned multiple times. In the year of our lord 2022, long range missile and air strikes can hit strategic targets in European and far eastern Russia. I think we’ve seen enough from them to say that their ability to project power could be completely cut off by NATO while barely moving into the country.

[Chad Fuck 17818]

28 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Tail rotor optional

 

UA live map is saying the pilot survived.  That is fucking crazy if accurate.

[BabaYaga 15331]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I can’t tell if this is just a typo but I have to think that in this hypothetical, we would in fact stop ground forces at or near the Russian border. That lesson has been learned multiple times. In the year of our lord 2022, long range missile and air strikes can hit strategic targets in European and far eastern Russia. I think we’ve seen enough from them to say that their ability to project power could be completely cut off by NATO while barely moving into the country.

And at that point there is 100% chance nukes start flying

[Chad Fuck 17818]

 

[956 Worldwide 34816]

40 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This is where I struggle.  I don't think they can push Russia out.  Russia can establish the land bridge to Crimea, and they just fortify and sit on it.  This might be the concession.

I would not be surprised to see Russia vote to incorporate the DPR and LPR into Russia and launch an offensive designed to extend Russian control to the borders they claim for themselves.

This accomplishes a few things. It’s a more realistic military aim. It delivers Putin a tangible “win” he can point to. And it shuts down the status of Donbas as something to negotiate. 
 

I won’t go out on a limb and predict it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the game. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13529]

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to loss of territory or just letting this be the new normal. And given that others are now starting to take advantage of Russia's weakness, Russia may be looking for some type of acceptable retreat. 

[atomheartbevo 89851]

 

[gmr548 16617]

And at that point there is 100% chance nukes start flying

Probably so. Which is why I remain steadfastly against any direct involvement. Just have to hope UKR can use this momentum productively without getting reckless. Offense very different.

[atomheartbevo 89851]

 

[atomheartbevo 89851]

 

[956 Worldwide 34816]

This shithead just got kicked out of the Czech Republic for spying and had the gall to go on Facebook and post a fucking farewell novel. Posting only the first half in machine translate since I ain’t got time to make this look pretty.

They knew better than to enable comments.

Quote

Czech Republic Feodosije Vladyševského Today is a big and very important stage of my life. When I came to Prague five years ago, I can't imagine how many happy, sad, difficult, but undoubtedly interesting and unforgettable events I will experience here. Here I was lucky enough to meet loyal and reliable friends, find love, "wing" and learn to fly. All this time there were amazing people around me - my colleagues, compatriots in the Czech Republic and, of course, Czech living friends. Looking back, I realize to my surprise how much we have been able to do, despite nothing! In the daily hustle and bustle, we sometimes fail to notice all the important details. Nevertheless, over the years we have organized wonderful world-class exhibitions and concerts, book fairs, jazz, food and film festivals, trade missions, meetings of various unique personalities, even direct communication between Czech schoolchildren and astronauts on the ISS, who therefore took Krtka into space. ! We tried to give as many Czechs as possible the opportunity to better understand the very "mysterious" and thus contradictory Russian soul ... and to show that we are actually the same people, with our own dreams, hopes and weaknesses. And in all these projects, I felt a huge support from a lot of beautiful and talented people! All of you I've befriended over the last five years - diplomats, businessmen, politicians, artists, musicians, scientists, directors, artists, doctors, athletes, historians, travelers, art historians, chefs and brewers, pilots (special thanks to you, my "brothers at risk"), as well as simply my dear friends Czechs, Russians, Ukrainians, Slovaks and many other nationalities - you are the Czech Republic to which……

Edited April 1, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Brisketexan 105464]

11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I would not be surprised to see Russia vote to incorporate the DPR and LPR into Russia and launch an offensive designed to extend Russian control to the borders they claim for themselves.

This accomplishes a few things. It’s a more realistic military aim. It delivers Putin a tangible “win” he can point to. And it shuts down the status of Donbas as something to negotiate. 
 

I won’t go out on a limb and predict it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the game. 

Not a bad guess at a possible outcome.

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to loss of territory or just letting this be the new normal. And given that others are now starting to take advantage of Russia's weakness, Russia may be looking for some type of acceptable retreat. 

Understood, but here's the thing -- Ukraine would get something out of that.

Pre-war: Ukraine had a tenous border, hard to defend, and low-grade ongoing war in Donbass.

Post-war (if DPR and LPR go to Russia): Ukraine will have a heavily militarized border, with a lot of western defense support.  It will look a lot like Korea.  Ukraine will have, and have to defend, less territory.  But it will be much better equipped and able to do so, and Russia may wisely conclude not to stick its dick in that particular hornet's nest a second time.  This even gives more impetus to accelerate the democratic functionality of Ukraine, reduce corruption, integrate into Europe, etc.  Those gains have a price, but they ARE gains.

[956 Worldwide 34816]

12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to loss of territory or just letting this be the new normal. And given that others are now starting to take advantage of Russia's weakness, Russia may be looking for some type of acceptable retreat. 

I absolutely don’t think Ukraine will agree, but Russia could absolutely decide they want to change the ground by saying “they voted to join Russia” and at most agreeing to some bullshit 15 year negotiating format. Important to note that despite all the huffing and puffing over Minsk— Russia was never even an official party to the conflict. 

Remember, unfortunately Russia gets a vote here too.  

[BabaYaga 15331]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Post-war (if DPR and LPR go to Russia): Ukraine will have a heavily militarized border, with a lot of western defense support.  It will look a lot like Korea.  Ukraine will have, and have to defend, less territory. 

Korea has the advantage of being a slender peninsula.  The Ukrainian border with Russia is almost 1,500 miles.  That's a hell of a lot of territory to try and maintain.  

[BabaYaga 15331]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I absolutely don’t think Ukraine will agree, but Russia could absolutely decide they want to change the ground by saying “they voted to join Russia” and at most agreeing to some bullshit 15 year negotiating format. Important to note that despite all the huffing and puffing over Minsk— Russia was never even an official party to the conflict. 

Remember, unfortunately Russia gets a vote here too.  

What's the old saying?  There's never dry ink with Russian negotiations.  They constantly waffle and pivot to keep you off guard.  

[Brisketexan 105464]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Korea has the advantage of being a slender peninsula.  The Ukrainian border with Russia is almost 1,500 miles.  That's a hell of a lot of territory to try and maintain.  

I think we've seen that you mostly have to cover the roads and rail lines.  It's manageable.

[Hefeweizen 5346]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think we've seen that you mostly have to cover the roads and rail lines.  It's manageable.

The tractors cover the rest.

[956 Worldwide 34816]

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Chechnyan's really are just fucking TikTokers/social media addicts looking for the likes.

Because there's no fucking way they are attacking anything of value and/or that's defended.

 

Ramzan Kadyrov is going to need his army if shit gets sideways in Russia.  I guarantee this is part of the calculus. The whole “deploy Chechen troops” gambit was at least 50 percent infowar because of their reputation.  The Ukrainians didn’t shit their pants and so these thugs aren’t really useful. 

[TexasEd 8077]

2 hours ago, texastough said:

Back to Japan claiming sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands. Man I wish other countries like Finland who have lost territory to Russia would follow suit. Seems it would be the best way to help Ukraine right now short of direct NATO involvement. Divert Russia's military resources and attention from Ukraine. And, playing the long game, could help take out Putin. I know support for the Ukraine war is strong now, but if Putin came out of this with nothing of value gained in Ukraine, and loss of territory to Japan, Finland, etc., I imagine his support would take a huge hit in the homeland. Combined with sanctions eventually taking a huge toll on Russians, I don't see how Putin could survive it.

 

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

If we are talking about nuclear war, manpower is irrelevant. I was speaking more to its ability marshal additional troops if smaller powers try and use this as an opportunity to take back some territory claimed by Russia. 

 

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The difference is that the Kurile Islands are a longstanding dispute dating back to the post-World War II years that neither side has ever backed down on.  Finland has no territorial disputes with Russia.  I also think that as we try to keep global opinion pushing against Russia, we need to be careful of appearing opportunistic or playing into Russia's narrative. 

 

Georgia might be one of the next areas to say they want territory back, then maybe Syria gets hotter.  I don't think Chechnya will revolt but I know resistance is growing in Belarus.

We can hope, can't we?

 

 

[tx 3 putt 77595]

43 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

All those Russian troops should die proudly, not willing to surrender !

[Da Fino 2785]

So much Gucci HSLD gear over there. 

[BabaYaga 15331]

Anyone remember the tales from the Eastern Front of the Night Witches?  

Their modern equivalent it seems?

 

[Rimbo 26165]

2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

It ended there, but was precipitated by failed Russian advances.  We get into a shooting war with Russia, borders mean little.  The point was initial hubris can often lead to failed campaigns.  We need to slow our roll a little here.

 

2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Yeah, you get onto Russian soil and you get into "land war in Asia" trap territory. 

 

While "land war in Asia" is a terrific line from a great screenwriter delivered flawlessly in a classic movie... the issue here is how your military is built, not that land wars in Asia can't succeed.

The Khans had little issue conquering vast swathes of Asia.

Most European militaries aren't built to travel. They're not designed to project force across thousands of miles of terrain. I don't think ours is, either. But if you build a force that way, like the Mongols did, it can work.

 

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Everyone is high fiving over a few thousand dead Russians.  They gave up a hundred thousand against the Fins.  The aggregate isn't the point.  The point is they are willing and have shown they will blanket a conflict with millions of people and sacrifice them if necessary.  We will not.  Europe will not.  

And they're fools for doing so. Those lives and talents are wasted.

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

This feels way too optimistic, but the OSINT map nerds are definitely tracking a lot of Russian withdrawals/defeats all over the place.  
 

 

Yeah, they're all going to head to Donbas to try and keep that area.

[RPM 26368]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

The difference with the Falaise pocket was mechanized units that were fast moving.  I do not know if the UA has this capability? 

[BabaYaga 15331]

3 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

The Khans had little issue conquering vast swathes of Asia.

Most European militaries aren't built to travel. They're not designed to project force across thousands of miles of terrain. I don't think ours is, either. But if you build a force that way, like the Mongols did, it can work.

True, but even they couldn't hold it.  Retrofitting armies is also no easy task.  They spend decades gearing for a particular style of operation.  

[atomheartbevo 89851]

 

[TexasEd 8077]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Re: the off ramp from the war, on-ramp back into global commerce in some way......that still has to be one of the plays.  At this point, we're talking gambling and game theory.

Pushing Russian forces back to some acceptable line, and offering an off-ramp that allows the regime to stay in power while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty is like cashing out on a stock after you've made a bundle.  It's a good outcome.  Maybe the stock will go to the stratosphere later.  Or, maybe it will be Theranos.

Playing for the total win -- push Russia out of every corner of Ukraine, humiliate it, and hope for regime change?  Well, that's putting all the chips on the table, with a much lower chance of success.

Risks, rewards, tolerances for ongoing pain, all of those are in play.  That decision making and strategy is actually harder and more perilous than the act of warfighting itself.  Battles are where individual lives and pieces of territory are won or lost.  The decisions at the Zelensky level are where countries are won or lost.

 

53 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I would not be surprised to see Russia vote to incorporate the DPR and LPR into Russia and launch an offensive designed to extend Russian control to the borders they claim for themselves.

This accomplishes a few things. It’s a more realistic military aim. It delivers Putin a tangible “win” he can point to. And it shuts down the status of Donbas as something to negotiate. 
 

I won’t go out on a limb and predict it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the game. 

 

49 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't see Ukraine agreeing to loss of territory or just letting this be the new normal. And given that others are now starting to take advantage of Russia's weakness, Russia may be looking for some type of acceptable retreat. 

List the possible outcomes by ranking worst to best... An example might be (Order is probably off):

1. Lose all Ukraine and install a puppet regime or incorporate it all into Russia
2. lose everything east of Dnieper
3. Lose Eastern Territories only
4. Formalize Crimea transfer
5. Regime change in Russia

To get one of the higher numbers you have to be threatening the one above it.  So for the negotiated settlement to be 4 you have to have the threat of 5 being the outcome on the table.  We are seeing this now with Putin giving up on 1 and 2 and trying to solidify 3.  If 4 or 5 come into play he will have to give up more.

 

 The think gets more complicated if Georgia tries to take back land or Belarus has civil unrest and Syria gets hot again.  Outside forces could come to play and the longer this goes on the harder sanctions and death tolls hit Putin domestically 

Edited April 1, 2022 by TexasEd

[TXSG8R 3362]

2 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

hold on though,  all we know is 2 Helo's made it to Belgorod,  we dont know they got back safe, we dont know how many took off in the attack.

if it was 4, and 2 got shot down thats still a very good attack in terms of actual destruction/propaganda.   But If Ukraine lost like 10 birds in this attack and arent telling anyone, yeah, that kinda means that AA wall was there and active.

 

however, the complete lack of ANY return fire in the vids above does tend to lead to the conclusion that it was just a few birds that flew in on the attack and that the Russians had no idea they were there until they attacked.

Yea, there’s lots of variables. For all we know they used captured IFF/transponder codes and pass codes to just roll in as a friendly. With as scattershot as the Russians have been with everything else, it wouldn’t surprise me that they aren’t rolling over their codes on every loss of equipment. As fast as they are losing it, it’s almost an impossible task. 
 

2 birds have a much better chance of getting in unnoticed versus 10. They could have also used multiple flights on different border crossings for redundancy and these were the only ones that made it to the target. It will be interesting to see what comes out about this mission down the road. Ukes are smart not to spill the beans about it right now. Either way, it’s a gold mine for NATO.

Edited April 1, 2022 by TXSG8R

[The Dog 44171]

15 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

True, but even they couldn't hold it. 

yeah they only held it for 240 years. slackers.

[MillerEP 30501]

Ok, so imagine you're a Russian soldier. You went in around Kyiv. Everything was chaotic, you had no clue what you were even doing there. After ineptly sitting around for a few days getting shelled nightly, with expired food, terrible leaders, and hearing your other units getting annihilated on the comms. Everywhere you go people are yelling at you calling you a fascist, and occasionally taking potshots at you. After a trip to steal some shit you come back and are told "Hey finally, we're bugging out" We're going back to Belarus. You thank God and manage to get back to Belarus through an enemy Army harassing you from behind...Fast forward a couple of days (which hasn't happened yet) and they're about to tell you "You're going back in the East to do it all over again."

[Superhero 8858]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

How much damage can Ukraine do to those retreating Russians?

As far as invading Belarus in the chase, Ukraine has been very disciplined in this war so far.  Losing their head and going into Belarus would be out of character.

What’s the terrain heading back into Belarus? Take out the roads by selectively targeting the front of the convoy, then turkey shoot?

[tx 3 putt 77595]

50 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Anyone remember the tales from the Eastern Front of the Night Witches?  

Their modern equivalent it seems?

 

hopefullly they’re full of troops

 

if I’m the us, i just tripled the budget for anti drone weapon technology. We are seeing the battlefield evolving before us 

[Armybrat 40940]

We are stupid if we haven’t already, but just as important is the development of counter-drone technology.

[tx 3 putt 77595]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

We are stupid if we haven’t already, but just as important is the development of counter-drone technology.

 
blocking their wifi / communications with the operator would seem important 

[Armybrat 40940]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 
blocking their wifi / communications with the operator would seem important 

Well, Spectrum does that already with my Internet/TV bundle at least once a week.

Get those assholes on it.

 

[TexasEd 8077]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 
blocking their wifi / communications with the operator would seem important 

all different types of comms including various bands for LOS, satellite relays, cellular relays, etc.  Some encrypted some not.  Then you have to decide if you want to exploit or block the comms.  Lots of choices.

Edited April 1, 2022 by TexasEd

[MillerEP 30501]

/eyeroll

 

[Armybrat 40940]

Thyroid.... that little asshole is shrinking?

[Poe It Up 126]

14 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

/eyeroll

 

That must be wreaking havoc on his menstrual cycle. 

[MillerEP 30501]