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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8407

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, rpspeed said:

Was the Mariupol surrender ever officially confirmed?
 

 

 

Not even one guard for that many captives?  You would have guards at point and drag, but you would also see guards on the flanks.  They also don't look beaten or defiant.  In every picture of POWs I've ever seen, the prisoners look either beaten or defiant.  Those look "normal", if that makes sense.  Compare their demeanor to the earlier pictures of Russian POWs.

Edited by Scheiss Meister
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KYHorn

KYHorn 17047

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I've seen this sentiment a few times recently. The details of the transfer of tanks from NATO to Ukraine are important here (I haven't seen any reports of the number/types). I'm thinking It could mean the difference between Ukraine having sufficient mechanized forces for counter attacking and not. Jake Sullivan (National Security Advisor) indicated today that the US is sending advanced weapons and systems that are not public and that have even been reported as things the US would not send. Here's hoping whatever they are sending are difference-makers. Would love to start seeing some Switchblade casualties, too.

 

 

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686

686 3449

Posted
Posted
I've seen this sentiment a few times recently. The details of the transfer of tanks from NATO to Ukraine are important here (I haven't seen any reports of the number/types). I'm thinking It could mean the difference between Ukraine having sufficient mechanized forces for counter attacking and not. Jake Sullivan (National Security Advisor) indicated today that the US is sending advanced weapons and systems that are not public and that have even been reported as things the US would not send. Here's hoping whatever they are sending are difference-makers. Would love to start seeing some Switchblade casualties, too.
 
 

Not that it’s addressing this issue directly, but I saw another trainload of Bradley’s and other armor/tracked vehicles headed east out of Hood today. Wondering if we’re sending more stuff to NATO allies so they can send all their Soviet stuff to Ukraine.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89660

Posted
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37 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I've seen this sentiment a few times recently. The details of the transfer of tanks from NATO to Ukraine are important here (I haven't seen any reports of the number/types). I'm thinking It could mean the difference between Ukraine having sufficient mechanized forces for counter attacking and not. Jake Sullivan (National Security Advisor) indicated today that the US is sending advanced weapons and systems that are not public and that have even been reported as things the US would not send. Here's hoping whatever they are sending are difference-makers. Would love to start seeing some Switchblade casualties, too.

I'm sure there's some interesting stuff that is going to stay on the Western side of the Dnieper.

I don't know how much armor Ukraine will need at this point - given that we have seen even top-tier Russian armored vehicles being shiftily maintained, I can only imagine what the stuff that the Russians have in reserve looks like (going to be a lot of preventative maintenance skipped, and a lot of parts stolen and sold). And the Russian stuff that is being redeployed from the outlying areas around Kyiv has to be beaten the fuck up, run into the ground and how many times did the Russian drivers haul ass and redline things because they were scared?

It's hard to figure out where it's headed - in theory, Russia pulling out of the areas near Kyiv is going to free up top-tier Ukrainian forces to head south/east.  Yeah, Russia is redeploying the Kyiv forces to those areas, but they aren't very good obviously.

I think the UAV stuff is going to really get crazy.  And Russia won't be able to have air superiority.

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Superhero

Superhero 8830

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

A country full of farmers/farm kids that have operated heavy machinery since they were able to? A 50 year old platform is a very short learning curve measured in hours. Tanks are just a funky tractor.

Plus there’s always YouTube. I’m sure there are training videos somewhere. 

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Bobby_Batronic

Bobby_Batronic 1994

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

My question is what about crews? 

Shouldn’t the question be about mud? Because the face of this thing changes a bit when the ground dries out and the Russians are no longer constricted to narrow, defined and predictable avenues of advance and logistics. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14258

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Posted
10 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

A country full of farmers/farm kids that have operated heavy machinery since they were able to? A 50 year old platform is a very short learning curve measured in hours. Tanks are just a funky tractor.

Yes, but...

When I did something wrong, all I did was wipe out crop and get chewed out by my old man.  Had I been running a T72 in an active war zone, I'da got kilt.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89660

Posted
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27 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Shouldn’t the question be about mud? Because the face of this thing changes a bit when the ground dries out and the Russians are no longer constricted to narrow, defined and predictable avenues of advance and logistics. 

Given how many thousands of Javelins and other anti-tank weapons, plus UAVs, are floating around amongst the Ukrainian units, I’d imagine Russian units getting out of their comfort zones and trying to get out in the countryside opens them up to being picked off.  

Especially given that Russian armor doesn’t seem to understand how combined arms works, and why armor needs infantry with it.  

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48099

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

They "can't" blink because they are idiots, who painted themselves into this corner with their own stupidity.  Now Poland is PISSED - stating it openly.  

Yeah, man, I understand all of that. They painted themselves in that corner starting 10 years ago. The paint has been dry for years now. But the notion that there's shit all they can do about it now, at the drop of a hat, is absurd as well. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Story on motocross riders in Europe refitting/tuning used bikes and smuggling them into Ukraine to hand off to the UKa.

https://riprawlings.com/2022/03/31/wzd20-stud-motorcycle-smugglers/

I think this has some promise.  A cavalry of motorcycle soldiers with Javelins and NLAWS could do some serious quickstrike damage on the areas where Ukraine needs to go on the offensive.  

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Anyone getting in early investment for the movie about the UKa “nerd drone” division that keeps destroying “critical targets”? I’d have to imagine a script is already in production. Revenge of the nerds 2022 reboot?

Redo the famous Wolverines! shot as Engineers! and replace the rifle held high with a slide rule.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

and hey... some great gas mileage on those as well.   4 gallons gets you about 120-140 useable miles.

Get them some of the Mekong River boats to run up and down the Dnieper and put fire teams and strike teams on them with their dirt bikes.  Pull up to areas where some demolition needs done, and Walla!  

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ABSR

ABSR 5311

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Posted
12 hours ago, Macanudo said:

My concern about this shifting to a more conventional frontal slog in Donbas is threefold:

The Russians have plenty of arty, etc. with enough range to wreak havoc.   Those kinds of weapons systems aren't going to be taken out by Javelins, Starstreaks or Stingers.   Do the Ukrainians have acceptable counter-battery abilities?   Can they effect any kind of reasonable air attack efforts on those weapons?  I don't have any idea on their counter-battery ability and I think the answer is no on the second. 

 Ukraine could use more artillery of their own and counterbattery...But if Russia digs in and Ukraine has the Switchblade drones or other drones that allow for longer range recon and attack, a dug in force will not fare well over time.

2.  Are the Russians planning on just letting this turn into a stalemate at the current points on the map and wear the Ukrainians down to giving up what they don't control?   How long would it take for Ukraine to accept that?  Keeping an army in the field indefinitely is damn near impossible.  And Putin might be perfectly happy to make them do that.

The Ukrainians will to continue to fight is a big question, but now after the atrocities I imagine the country is aligned to keep fighting and killing Russians.  They know what is and will happen to people they abandon.

3.  If the Russians are ready for real bloodshed, can the Ukrainians sustain their forces in the field and withstand the attack long enough to inflict sufficient casualties to cause the Russians to stand down or give up?

Russia's overall military and army is much bigger...but they can't move and use all of it just in Ukraine?  And in theory they are "not" using conscripts which make up a large number too.  Russia is a huge country with huge geographic requirements.   Ukraine has/had a population of about 43M.  They had 125K soldiers (army) at the start and about 900K reservists.   With foreign soldiers and with others signing up they will likely still have a lot of manpower ... although untrained for new recruits.  It was said Russia had 125 BTG's assigned.  If that is 800 total soldier (combat) then they started with 100K combat soldiers and they have taken fairly steep losses.   They can add more, but if Russia wants to dig in for a static war then they will be attacked and worn down...so long as Ukraine has the will to fight.  If Russia attacks and extends themselves then it will be the same supply line and coordination issues.

Russia's main option is to keep adding to the atrocities and try and make Ukraine think it is not worth it...but they have seen what a Russian victory looks like and that is not necessarily a better option than continued fighting.  

Ukraine can win long term and even wear down and defeat the Russians, but it will be at a continued cost of fighting in and destroying your country.

That's kind of an obvious question and the events of the last 5 weeks point toward "Maybe...?"

But we can't kid ourselves that a Russian attack in the Donbas area isn't going to be bloody.

 

Responded above.

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12977

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34 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Responded above.

Thanks for some thoughts.

Something else has been bothering me.  Eastern/Southeastern Ukraine is steppe country.  Think more like Custer and the Little Bighorn territory but with a little more green vegetation and less like the Piney Woods.   It's not conducive to large scale movements without air cover and there aren't a whole lot of places to mass troops without being discovered by satellites or air patrols.   That opens you up to artillery, missile and air strikes.  

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34711

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The Czechs have sent T-72 tanks and IFVs to Ukraine.  OSINT saying 10 tanks and a few dozen IFVs.  Great precedent for the Poles and others to tap into their stocks.  Very glad to see NATO nations upping the baseline of support. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-sends-tanks-ukraine-czech-tv-reports-2022-04-05/ 

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Bobby_Batronic

Bobby_Batronic 1994

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Given how many thousands of Javelins and other anti-tank weapons, plus UAVs, are floating around amongst the Ukrainian units, I’d imagine Russian units getting out of their comfort zones and trying to get out in the countryside opens them up to being picked off.  

Especially given that Russian armor doesn’t seem to understand how combined arms works, and why armor needs infantry with it.  

I agree that they kinda suck at modern warfare, but quantity has a quality all its own, and the ground becoming passable might allow them to actually fan out and screen their force with APC’s and dismounted infantry. 
 

Yeah, it won’t be Patton’s third army rolling through Germany, but the current environment has neutralized the advantages of numbers and equipment. The Russians are attacking and the Ukrainians are defending a series of Thermopylaes because the Russians are road bound for the time being. 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Thanks for some thoughts.

Something else has been bothering me.  Eastern/Southeastern Ukraine is steppe country.  Think more like Custer and the Little Bighorn territory but with a little more green vegetation and less like the Piney Woods.   It's not conducive to large scale movements without air cover and there aren't a whole lot of places to mass troops without being discovered by satellites or air patrols.   That opens you up to artillery, missile and air strikes.  

Rumor is the Drone force is now focused on the Melitopol airfield, and the plane mechanics in particular, to take away the skies.  Night vision capabilities will be huge out there.  

Fighting out there may why Zelensky has been pushing so hard for Aussie Bushmaster IFVs.  Some have been spotted in UKa colors on trucks in Oz.  

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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MillerEP

MillerEP 30455

Posted
Posted

Bearded Woman

The first photos from the city of Chernobyl. We will remind, there were no military operations here, there were only occupiers

A column of military equipment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Donetsk region was demilitarized by soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

95 ODShBr, from PTRK "Stugna" destroyed the Russian attack helicopter Ka-52!

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30455

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Russian Nazis shot at a monument to Taras Shevchenko in Kyiv region.

^I saw it yesterday, they were claiming it was revenge for Bucha. This is going to get out of hand on both sides now.

Mushroom season in the forest

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

My impression from posts like this is that the Russian Army is organized in the way that the British Army used to be--they put guys from the same town all in one unit.  Is that right?

If that's correct, then it's probably likely that guys from St. Petersburg and Moscow aren't seeing much fighting.  The last thing Putin wants is for the people in those cities to get a real sense as to how the war is going.  But that also means the numbers of troops that Russia can throw into the fight is somewhat limited.  After all, Moscow and St. Petersburg together account for about 15% of the total Russian population (and a higher percentage of its fighting-age population).

At the same time, using exclusively or primarily provincial troops probably explains a lot of the looting.  A dude from St. Petersburg probably doesn't need a Ukrainian washing machine.  A guy from the Russian Far East--that's probably a different story.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15296

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

My impression from posts like this is that the Russian Army is organized in the way that the British Army used to be--they put guys from the same town all in one unit.  Is that right?

If that's correct, then it's probably likely that guys from St. Petersburg and Moscow aren't seeing much fighting.  The last thing Putin wants is for the people in those cities to get a real sense as to how the war is going.  But that also means the numbers of troops that Russia can throw into the fight is somewhat limited.  After all, Moscow and St. Petersburg together account for about 15% of the total Russian population (and a higher percentage of its fighting-age population).

At the same time, using exclusively or primarily provincial troops probably explains a lot of the looting.  A dude from St. Petersburg probably doesn't need a Ukrainian washing machine.  A guy from the Russian Far East--that's probably a different story.

Don't know, but most moved away from that practice to avoid towns having almost all their young men erased when units suffer heavy casualties.  Good question.  Guessing the looting is an avenue for both items and to sell them on the black market?

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10405

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Toss in that if the Russians begin to focus everything in a smaller area (versus being spread out all over NE Ukraine and around Kyiv, it'll be somewhat easier for the Ukrainians to take stuff out - hunter/killer teams with Javelins, etc., will have an easier time, and Ukraine is getting the Starstreaks which should remove much of the manned Russian CAS aircraft, and they are getting the Switchblades from the US.

And all of those supply trucks that the Ukrainians have already taken out, even though their loss is already being felt, it'll especially be felt going forward in a more traditional slug-fest where the Russians won't be able to keep the artillery/rocket launchers fully supplied.

That kind of goes both ways. One of the biggest Russian failures here has been over-extending supply lines and convoys getting bogged down/depleted/abandoned. As they consolidate their front lines and dig in, resupply/logistics naturally become easier … assuming they still have enough trucks

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Captainant

Captainant 27663

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@MillerEP I dig your thread contributions and taking the time to translate, but fuck man, this thread is becoming unreadable on mobile with the constant tweet storms. Can you edit down or hide them in a spoiler? It's impossible to read this thread because the page skips around like crazy as each tweet loads and resizes the page

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

It pains me to say this, but if I were in those soldiers' shoes, I'd be executing every Russian soldier that surrendered. I suppose that makes me a monster, too. 

Imagine you’re defending your country from invasion, and you see your kid or your neighbor’s kid face down in the street with their hands behind their back and shot in the back of the head….

 

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RPM

RPM 26320

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think this has some promise.  A cavalry of motorcycle soldiers with Javelins and NLAWS could do some serious quickstrike damage on the areas where Ukraine needs to go on the offensive.  

The new Rat Patrol

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15296

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RPM said:

The new Rat Patrol

Yep.  This was the inception of the famed SAS.  Hit/run raids during WWII in the western campaigns in N. Africa.  Tricked out jeeps loaded down with machine guns making raids on airfields and supply depots.  

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