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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26462

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, dimyh said:

So link in spoiler speculates on the upcoming tactics for UA in the east. Can any of you more military experience address how plausible this might be?

Basic idea is that UA will target Melitopol air force base to whittle down RU's air capabilities by using night time scouting missions. Do enough damage and RU infantry will be forced to move out of their defensive positions to engage UA's troops which is part of an even bigger trap with targeted artillery.

Night operations is very plausible for UA forces. Will Russia have counters by now? Is location conducive for UA scouts to get in and out to safety every night?

Will RUAF be able to operate out of other bases and counter UA positions out in the open?

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I'm no General Patton here, but my military experience includes convincing an argumentative German to leave a Camp Darby checkpoint before some thoroughly pissed-off Carabinieri machine-gunned something for making furtive movements, plus at the strategic level I figured out a bunch of old Avalon Hill games as a 12-year-old.

I don't doubt that the Ukrainians will occasionally whoop the Russians like Legolas shooting arrows through troll skulls, and it may happen exactly the way Trent Telenko outlines in his Twitter thread. Everything Telenko says, may be possible, but it also strikes me as intricate, a long chain of things that have to work right for the next thing to work right. That's iffy even with the company picnic, much less against an unwilling opponent.

Now, so far, the Russians haven't shown competence, and maybe they never will. But even in fuck-up armies, somebody will emerge who gets it right. Or the simple chaos of war gets in the way. I hope Telenko's scheme or something like it works out. I suspect the Ukrainians will still win, but it won't be neat or easy.

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Fico

Fico 1791

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm sure I and many others are shocked that you haven't given this much thought.

For starters, your initial concept of contracting 8-10% was way off. I haven't seen anything lower than 10%, and many are predicting a contraction of 10-20%. So it's likely doubly as bad as think from the start. Other things you've failed to account for:

1.) They export a ton of weapons, but thanks to sanctions on chips and tech, they can't acquire the parts to build or repair their own armaments, but less build more to sell. So yeah, that's kind of a big deal.
2.) Ukraine is considered the world's bread basket. China just bought a fuck ton of the available seed and grain on the world market because they were tipped off by Putin, and they had historic flooding. Russia has already directed no food exports to feed their own population. So with a likely worldwide shortage thanks to Ukraine being fucked, and Russia also lost an export good for their economy, tell me, where do you think there is going to be "cheap" food they can purchase? There won't be any cheap food anywhere in the world next year.
3.) With their shattered economy, who are they beating out on the economic market to buy these goods and food, when demand worldwide will be sky high? You think they can outbid other countries that need the same goods at this point? Even if there were cheap goods and  food they could purchase, do you think they're going to accept payment in shitty Rubles?
4.) Outside of Germany, who can't cut off access to O&G, you think the smaller eastern bloc countries (that already buy their O&G from Russia) are going to pick up the slack for less demand from the rest of Europe cutting back, and other worldwide exports? In short, that poster cited countries that already buy O&G from Russia, so it's not like they're upping NEW money into the coffers of Russia. They're just not reducing what they already buy. Oh, except they and everyone else can now buy it fucking cheaper. How do you not recognize this is a pretty big fucking deal for a cash strapped country? 
 

To add, only ~28.5% of their GDP is based on exports. Granted purely internal production is going to get hurt as well with lack of access to key components but they can still sell a lot of vodka and shirts with a letter they don't even have in their language to each other. 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Another angle I read (from Herter, I think) was for UKA to target the actual mechanics and maintenance personnel at forward air bases within Ukraine.  Kill the guys who can keep the planes running, that's just as good as taking out the plane.  These issues may become very real for Russia sooner rather than later.

 

Also, saw this tweet and news stories:

 

The fire was apparently arson, and has already been put out.  But as to an overall approach.....

good-great.gif

Rumors are the attacks on the Melitopol airfield are focused on removing the aviation techs, tools, and parts.

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted (edited)

I read this as we started training UKa on Switchblades before the invasion started?

 

pT6GS_dH_normal.jpg
 
Small number of Ukrainian forces already in the United States ahead of the invasion have been trained on Switchblade drones, senior U.S. defense official says
 
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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted (edited)

Metallica fundraiser for Chef Andres' World Central Kitchens. Kinda weird to see an Andrew Cremeans' Metallica shirt with all the graphic design work he does for Disney.

https://www.metallica.com/store/awmh-month-of-giving-2022-t-shirt/AWMHACTMOG22.html?cgid=store#start=1

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15304

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

They aren’t.  A unified response to their energy needs could be arranged asap.  

According to whom?  Everything I've seen is that they are years away from getting off the tit?  Or are you saying everyone will pitch in and supply them with their needs?  Where does the production come from?  

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

According to whom?  Everything I've seen is that they are years away from getting off the tit?  Or are you saying everyone will pitch in and supply them with their needs?  Where does the production come from?  

I don't have a pat answer, but I'm guessing if they need gas we can get it to them, even without the facilities they should have built yesterday.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48147

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I don't have a pat answer, but I'm guessing if they need gas we can get it to them, even without the facilities they should have built yesterday.

If by "gas" you mean Natural Gas, then the answer is actually no. Not without proper docking and removal facilities. And with the need for gas around the world, countries will be struggling to meet their own demands. Shipping gas to Germany by tanker to then by bussed to whatever facilities can actually onboard the gas into their infrastructure...no.

If by gas, you mean literal gas, well, no one's electricity grid runs on gasoline. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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MillerEP

MillerEP 30494

Posted
Posted

They can't even write the correct name of their country for the first time. Russia forward

Here was the "Russian world"
 Kyiv region.

In Vuhledar, the occupiers fired on a humanitarian aid distribution site, killing two people.

Rashists hit a civilian bus traveling from Izyum to Slovyansk

Indoors Aerotechnics, Makariv.

 The photo was published by the chairman of the Makariv village council.

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30494

Posted
Posted

The enemy continues to insidiously strike with various weapons, trying to completely destroy the civilian population, infrastructure and residential areas of Luhansk region.

It was yours - it became ours.

Another characteristic feature of the stay of the Russian military in Borodyanka is looting. Not isolated cases, but a real process.

 A military kung packed with household appliances was found near one of the administrative buildings, which the Russian Armed Forces adapted for the barracks.

Irpin — photos from survivors began to appear in the chat of our house! I remind you that taking a photo during the occupation and surviving is already a feat. The more valuable these photos! Here is the same barrier that I broke with my hands to leave 🫣👇

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15304

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If by "gas" you mean Natural Gas, then the answer is actually now. Not without proper docking and removal facilities. And with the need for gas around the world, countries will be struggling to meet their own demands. Shipping gas to Germany by tanker to then by bussed to whatever facilities can actually onboard the gas into their infrastructure...no.

If by gas, you mean literal gas, well, no one's electricity grid runs on gasoline. 

Yep.  It's not like we "have" the NG, but are withholding it from them for some reason?  A dependent Germany is a massive strategic threat to NATO.  

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48147

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Yep.  It's not like we "have" the NG, but are withholding it from them for some reason?  A dependent Germany is a massive strategic threat to NATO.  

We don't even "have" the natural gas. And Germany literally has no way to receive it. Literally, LITERALLY, Germany has ZERO LNG Terminals. None. Honestly I'm amazed the shut down the Nord 2 pipeline, to be honest. As for LNG, we can't even get O&G companies at home to ramp up production. Doing that would require...socialism. So that's a hard no. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48147

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Was that crematorium ever substantiated?  Heard conflicting reports?

Right now it's just the mayor of a city who has claimed it, and a pic of some kind of machine in a truck I can't recognize. After the whole WMD in Iraq based on some truck, I'm hesitant to take it at face value. But we'll see what shakes out over time, because that drum beat is getting louder, not quieter. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15304

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Right now it's just the mayor of a city who has claimed it, and a pic of some kind of machine in a truck I can't recognize. After the whole WMD in Iraq based on some truck, I'm hesitant to take it at face value. But we'll see what shakes out over time, because that drum beat is getting louder, not quieter. 

Yeah, with all the optics of this conflict - phones, drones, etc., you'd think it would come out.  Time will tell

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If by "gas" you mean Natural Gas, then the answer is actually no. Not without proper docking and removal facilities. And with the need for gas around the world, countries will be struggling to meet their own demands. Shipping gas to Germany by tanker to then by bussed to whatever facilities can actually onboard the gas into their infrastructure...no.

If by gas, you mean literal gas, well, no one's electricity grid runs on gasoline. 

No, I just figured if someone got in a bind, we could figure out a solution.  I was talking out my ass in other words.  Thanks for clearing that up.

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Fico

Fico 1791

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, looks like now that Orban's party won reelection, they are emboldened and going all-in on siding with Russia.

Cool.  Boot them the fuck out of the EU and sanction Hungary too.  Fuck around.  Find out.

Hopefully Poland decides having it's veto buddy isn't worth the risk. 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 26036

Posted
Posted

What good does any of the talk of "war crimes" do? It's not like the perpetrators will be handed over to international tribunals or anything. It's not going to get NATO or the UN involved. It's horrific, but I don't see any action following the words.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105200

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

What good does any of the talk of "war crimes" do? It's not like the perpetrators will be handed over to international tribunals or anything. It's not going to get NATO or the UN involved. It's horrific, but I don't see any action following the words.

Giving the actions a name matters.  Issuing international warrants for the perpetrators matters.  Continued treatment of Russia like a criminal organization (which is all that it is, at this point) matters.

It's not nearly enough, though.  On that point, you're dead right.

Which is why I'd support Ukrainian snatch-and-grab raids in the future, just like Israel used to do.  10 years from now, infiltrate Russia, grab a guy off the street, and ship him to the Hague.

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Captainant

Captainant 27722

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

What good does any of the talk of "war crimes" do? It's not like the perpetrators will be handed over to international tribunals or anything. It's not going to get NATO or the UN involved. It's horrific, but I don't see any action following the words.

Actually, the shift to harder language like "war crimes" and "genocide" is part of the escalation of sanctions. There's UN treaties and conventions and definitions for genocide, which I would argue the russians are currently meeting with their actions. Heck the International Court of Justice has ruled that russia's actions are opening them to further sanction.

Using the right and most accurate words is a part of the legal and criminal system. If we care about doing things the legal way, it sure helps to build the paper trail.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15304

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PTINS said:

LNG is the only practical way to get signifcant volumes of US gas to Europe, and LNG facilities are capital intensive, permits & construction take a very long time (5-10 years), and the facilities must be backed with long term contracts in order to secure financing.  Similarly, Europe needs to build LNG import terminals with equivalent capacity to unload the LNG.

This.  It takes an incredible amount of time and capital to get things moving.  Then once production starts, you have to have the means to move it.  Again, this is why the pipelines are so important.  

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29001

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, PTINS said:

The US has incredible gas reserves and productive capacity. To unlock that capcaity, we need demand, a receptive political environment, and infrastructure.  

US gas storage (underground) is needed for US demand, it is filled and used annually on a seasonal basis.  US LNG plants and export terminals are basically at 100% capacity. US supply & demand is balanced as production is ~ equivalent to gas take away capacity.

LNG is the only practical way to get signifcant volumes of US gas to Europe, and LNG facilities are capital intensive, permits & construction take a very long time (5-10 years), and the facilities must be backed with long term contracts in order to secure financing.  Similarly, Europe needs to build LNG import terminals with equivalent capacity to unload the LNG.

Once all those things are in place, then we can begin to "ramp up production", assuming that companies, infrastructure, people, and equipment & supplies are available to meet the increased demand.  Keep in mind that every O&G company in the US lost money 2 years ago, many went bankrupt, and the industry had to pay to get someone to take the oil.  Those that survived did so by managing resources and expectations, which includes not getting to far over your skis because of a "one-time" world event, which happens about every 5 years.    The system will work, it just takes time.

It doesn't require socialism.  That new forward thinking mindset (socialist?) knee-capped the US O&G industry because "they" decided gas was bad. Now Putin has reminded the world what bad really looks like.

 

Now post their record earnings in 2021.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, PTINS said:

The US has incredible gas reserves and productive capacity. To unlock that capcaity, we need demand, a receptive political environment, and infrastructure.  

US gas storage (underground) is needed for US demand, it is filled and used annually on a seasonal basis.  US LNG plants and export terminals are basically at 100% capacity. US supply & demand is balanced as production is ~ equivalent to gas take away capacity.

LNG is the only practical way to get signifcant volumes of US gas to Europe, and LNG facilities are capital intensive, permits & construction take a very long time (5-10 years), and the facilities must be backed with long term contracts in order to secure financing.  Similarly, Europe needs to build LNG import terminals with equivalent capacity to unload the LNG.

Once all those things are in place, then we can begin to "ramp up production", assuming that companies, infrastructure, people, and equipment & supplies are available to meet the increased demand.  Keep in mind that every O&G company in the US lost money 2 years ago, many went bankrupt, and the industry had to pay to get someone to take the oil.  Those that survived did so by managing resources and expectations, which includes not getting to far over your skis because of a "one-time" world event, which happens about every 5 years.    The system will work, it just takes time.

It doesn't require socialism.  That new forward thinking mindset (socialist?) knee-capped the US O&G industry because "they" decided gas was bad. Now Putin has reminded the world what bad really looks like.

 

finally someone who understands energy. GoldenPass LNG is still years away from production, Annova LNG was cancelled before hitting FID because France didn't like "dirty fracked gas from Texas" and bought dirty gas from Qatar instead, and Rio Grande LNG bit off more than they can chew and can't sell enough capacity to get off the ground.  Driftwood/Tellurian is going to start construction soon though we're probably 5-6 years away from them being online.

Even if we had the production capacity of LNG to fulfill most of Europe's additional demand and these new facilities were operational - Europe doesn't have theneeded regas facilities or infrastructure to support them.  We're probably talking close to a decade before we can even make an honest to god dent in their needs should Russia cut them off.

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29001

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Then post their record losses 3 out of 4 years that far exceed those earnings in 1 fucking quarter.  Get the fuck outta here

I work for an O&G company. They're pretty vertically integrated, but have made tons of money every year outside of effectively breaking even in 2020. They never miss an opportunity to cry poverty though.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105200

Posted
Posted

PTINS and Sydney both aren't wrong.

To wean Germany etc. off of Russian gas, and to provide US gas as a substitute, several things need to happen -- both private and public sector.

Large-scale long-term contracts would need to be signed: people are going to be hesitant to build a multi-billion dollar compression facility without a guaranteed buyer on the other end.  That's going to require both private sector parties AND government involvement to pave the way, assist with guarantees, etc.

Construction of the LNG facilities on both ends: it could actually be fast-tracked if it was treated as a defense/security priority (which it should be), but again, that's going to involve some government activity and intervention on both ends of the trade.

The US and Germany (the governments) should be working on this post-haste, looping in relevant market players ASAP as well.

Layer into that climate change goals, and you get a bit of uncertainty.....but long-term contracts remove that uncertainty.  Natural gas is unquestionably THE bridge fuel as we work to transition from dirty energy, so let's approach it intelligently, with an eye on security concerns.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105200

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

OK, no more CR talk

We have waffled.  The EU has waffled.  Germany is mega-fucked, and Putin eats bags of cocks.....

Huh.   I thought we were doing okay at keeping it relatively CR-free.  If people wouldn't run to their favorite buzzwords, it would be easy.  

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