Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89,660]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

[Thatguy 8,699]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So the GRU is replacing the FSB

 

10 hours ago, 686 said:

From the article: ””From 2014 to the present day, between 140 and 150 FSB officers had an unlimited budget to spend on recruiting Ukrainians of any level,” he said in a discussion with two journalists from Novaya Gazeta last month.

Grozev added that much of the money was spent wooing Ukrainian recruits with expensive trips to Thailand, Cyprus and the Maldives. “It was money that they never earned,” he added, referring to the total failure of the FSB’s attempts to stir up unrest in Ukraine.”

I guess this is FSB getting fired for corruption and ineffectiveness more than GRU being brought in to poison/assassinate people. I don’t see how it will help much in Ukraine, but it does officially give Putin another scapegoat.

   Putin should rethink what happens when you put a couple hundred disgruntled secret service agents out on the street.

[956 Worldwide 34,711]

The Czech Republic has been elected to fill Russia’s vacated seat on the UN Human Rights Council.

 

[Orange&White 5,528]

1 hour ago, Thatguy said:

 

   Putin should rethink what happens when you put a couple hundred disgruntled secret service agents out on the street.

Send in some nice CIA fellows with briefcases stuffed with American dollars and US Passports and see what they know.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,976]

1 hour ago, Thatguy said:

 

   Putin should rethink what happens when you put a couple hundred disgruntled secret service agents out on the street.

Won't make a difference after a bout of accidental self-defenestrations.

[Chad Fuck 17,677]

   Putin should rethink what happens when you put a couple hundred disgruntled secret service agents out on the street.

Funny you think they’re on the street. I’m sure they’re in some cozy GRU holding pen somewhere.

[South Austin 52,497]

7 hours ago, Superhero said:

So explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old. What happened since February 24?

Well, then came March, then April, and now we're in May.  Want to hear what happens next?

[956 Worldwide 34,711]

The Russian puppet admin in Kherson intends to ask Russia to incorporate the e region into the Russian Federation.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-11-22/h_80fe685b2316ef50b261f407471b286a

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

   Putin should rethink what happens when you put a couple hundred disgruntled secret service agents out on the street.

They have a gulag named, Street?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

15 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Russian puppet admin in Kherson intends to ask Russia to incorporate the e region into the Russian Federation.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-11-22/h_80fe685b2316ef50b261f407471b286a

 

What is the stated goal of UKR? Is their goal to take control of all lands currently occupied by Russia (including those taken in 2014)?

[Chad Fuck 17,677]

The Russian puppet admin in Kherson intends to ask Russia to incorporate the e region into the Russian Federation.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-11-22/h_80fe685b2316ef50b261f407471b286a
 

Not good. But also not surprising. Obviously it gives Russia more cover- if only in their own minds - for escalating. But I still don’t think Puton wants to commit suicide by nuke launch so what’s the practical effect?

[FartingMonk 3,606]

8 hours ago, Superhero said:

So serious question here - Prior to the Russian invasion, we heard a lot about how Ukraine was a corrupt country; and they struggled to take out Russian-backed insurgents, and gave up Crimea.

But after Russia invaded, all of the sudden they got their shit together and turned from Bruce Banner into the Hulk?

 

 

I know Zelenskyy and his predecessor Poroshenko were both trying to stamp out corruption and end the fighting with Russia. But it seems like they had the chops to take out Russian backed separatists and re-take Crimea if they wanted to. So explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old. What happened since February 24?

be careful there.  Asking those questions will get you accused of being a Russian troll.  Or a bot.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

8 hours ago, Superhero said:

So serious question here - Prior to the Russian invasion, we heard a lot about how Ukraine was a corrupt country; and they struggled to take out Russian-backed insurgents, and gave up Crimea.

But after Russia invaded, all of the sudden they got their shit together and turned from Bruce Banner into the Hulk?

 

 

I know Zelenskyy and his predecessor Poroshenko were both trying to stamp out corruption and end the fighting with Russia. But it seems like they had the chops to take out Russian backed separatists and re-take Crimea if they wanted to. So explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old. What happened since February 24?

Keep in mind we don't know what of that was true and what was RU propaganda. Think about all the Azov as Nazis stuff.

Edited May 11, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Parliament 14,258]

9 hours ago, 686 said:

The problem with Zeihan is he’s too hyperbolic with his presentation of things - it’s either “ok” or “FUCKED!!!!!” If he would dial that down and be a little more nuanced his predictions would be more accurate. He is somewhat entertaining though.

I agree with most of his conclusions, but yeah.  Needs to take 10-20% off the top.  IIRC, he has said China will collapse as a nation in 10 years.  They're in big trouble for sure, but they're gonna be around for a very long time.

[Parliament 14,258]

8 hours ago, Superhero said:

So serious question here - Prior to the Russian invasion, we heard a lot about how Ukraine was a corrupt country; and they struggled to take out Russian-backed insurgents, and gave up Crimea.

But after Russia invaded, all of the sudden they got their shit together and turned from Bruce Banner into the Hulk?

 

 

I know Zelenskyy and his predecessor Poroshenko were both trying to stamp out corruption and end the fighting with Russia. But it seems like they had the chops to take out Russian backed separatists and re-take Crimea if they wanted to. So explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old. What happened since February 24?

I've wondered the same, and it's why I worry about them being pushed into the EU.  History can change on a dime.  Maybe this is the shock it took to get the Ukrainian people to make the change.   I hope so, and I agree that many in the west are projecting their hope.  Once Ukraine wins the war, it's still gonna be hard for them.  They'll get economic help from the West for sure, but they'll have a lot of work to do getting a government that works.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

18 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I've wondered the same, and it's why I worry about them being pushed into the EU.  History can change on a dime.  Maybe this is the shock it took to get the Ukrainian people to make the change.   I hope so, and I agree that many in the west are projecting their hope.  Once Ukraine wins the war, it's still gonna be hard for them.  They'll get economic help from the West for sure, but they'll have a lot of work to do getting a government that works.

The rebuilding process is going to be a really good indicator...western money is going to pour into the country, along with folks responsible for tracking the money.

Spoiler: most of it will be pocketed by corrupt politicians and businessmen.

[686 3,449]

So serious question here - …

A nation’s existential crisis at the hands of a foreign power brings bad actors in line and crime goes way down. Also, just because guys are somewhat corrupt doesn’t mean they aren’t patriotic. Murder rate in the US halved when WW2 got going:

[TexasEd 8,067]

13 hours ago, Macanudo said:

I wonder how much money they had to spend on influencing other countries.

at least 40 million

[686 3,449]

   Putin should rethink what happens when you put a couple hundred disgruntled secret service agents out on the street.

One of Ziehan’s points that is really interesting is that the KGB has basically run Russia since ~1985, and that they haven’t been educating new talent / training new people to run stuff. So every time Putin has some mid to upper level KGB guy “disappeared” as a scapegoat, it’s one less qualified candidate to actually run stuff.

Well, Putin just fired/jailed/liquidated a significant portion of the future leader candidate pool, and maybe put some serious distance between himself and the rest of the KGB. At some point maybe the KGB starts helping someone they see as a successor to Putin that can bolster the current power structure before a little revolution starts and a Navalny or Khodorkovsky type gets elected and really cleans out the KGB.

[SydneyCarton 48,099]

11 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Help me understand kidnapping 1.2MM people and counting...what's the end goal there? 

Russia, like much of the rest of the "first" world, has a birth rate problem.

• The current birth rate for Russia in 2022 is 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021.
• The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
• The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
• The birth rate for Russia in 2019 was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.

They aren't Japan bad, but they're pretty bad. On top of that, they've just sent tons of young males to get slaughtered. So if you've got a birth rate problem, there's no legal or illegal immigration into your shitbird country, and you just slaughtered a chunk of your young males in a stupid war, what do you do? You steal children of similar ethnicity to you and you brainwash and indoctrinate them without their parents getting in the way. The rest you force into labor camps. As an added bonus, this gives you the double whammy of also eradicating the independent culture of the country you're trying to absorb, and you get to fuck with THEIR birth rate and ability to support their own nation. It's evil.. 

 

11 hours ago, Zhorn96 said:

Do you have a good way on how they’ll get back?  Do you think the world will rattle the Russians cage to get them back?  And when they can’t “be found” will Russia let people in to find them?  Cause I don’t…

To further elaborate on this, can you imagine the situation it will take to go retrieve these kids? Adults can maybe find their way back...somehow. But not the kids. They have no documents, no paperwork, and the only way they're getting freed is if a NATO force enters Russia's borders and starts tearing it apart looking for them. You think Russia is going to let that happen? That is legit WWIII. Even if a treaty is signed that demands their return, Russia shrugs its shoulders and says "Uh, we gave you back everyone." What does the world do then?

[SydneyCarton 48,099]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is facing a population collapse.  They didn't have enough babies in the 1990s, and they haven't been having enough over the past few years (because they didn't have enough in the 1990s).  This causes a problem with maintaining a large military built around conscription (eligible manpower pool is small) and this causes a problem with your economy when the number of consumers and taxpayers keeps dropping every year, rather than increasing.

They seem to be kidnapping people from Russian-speaking areas, which means they can (in theory) convince a lot of those people to stick around in Russia, with fake fears that Ukrainians will prosecute them.

Let me introduce you to Peter Zeihan........

Edit: I disagree with a lot of his stuff (Russia outlasting Ukraine, etc.), but he makes a lot of good points and talks about things that a lot of others ignored until the invasion.

This is an awesome video, and everyone should listen to or watch it. It's only 12 minutes long. If even half of this guys statements/hypotheses are correct, ooof. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Russia, like much of the rest of the "first" world, has a birth rate problem.

• The current birth rate for Russia in 2022 is 11.617 births per 1000 people, a 2.42% decline from 2021.
• The birth rate for Russia in 2021 was 11.905 births per 1000 people, a 2.37% decline from 2020.
• The birth rate for Russia in 2020 was 12.194 births per 1000 people, a 2.31% decline from 2019.
• The birth rate for Russia in 2019 was 12.482 births per 1000 people, a 2.26% decline from 2018.

They aren't Japan bad, but they're pretty bad. On top of that, they've just sent tons of young males to get slaughtered. So if you've got a birth rate problem, there's no legal or illegal immigration into your shitbird country, and you just slaughtered a chunk of your young males in a stupid war, what do you do? You steal children of similar ethnicity to you and you brainwash and indoctrinate them without their parents getting in the way. The rest you force into labor camps. As an added bonus, this gives you the double whammy of also eradicating the independent culture of the country you're trying to absorb, and you get to fuck with THEIR birth rate and ability to support their own nation. It's evil.. 

 

To further elaborate on this, can you imagine the situation it will take to go retrieve these kids? Adults can maybe find their way back...somehow. But not the kids. They have no documents, no paperwork, and the only way they're getting freed is if a NATO force enters Russia's borders and starts tearing it apart looking for them. You think Russia is going to let that happen? That is legit WWIII. Even if a treaty is signed that demands their return, Russia shrugs its shoulders and says "Uh, we gave you back everyone." What does the world do then?

It's pretty fucking terrifying that the world embraced Putin and gave him/Russia global standing. Just pure evil.

[Pato del Muerto 52,495]

1 hour ago, 686 said:

 

A nation’s existential crisis at the hands of a foreign power brings bad actors in line and crime goes way down. Also, just because guys are somewhat corrupt doesn’t mean they aren’t patriotic. Murder rate in the US halved when WW2 got going:

 

Many of our would-be murderers enlisted and were busy killing in Europe or Africa and getting awarded medals for it. 

[686 3,449]

To further elaborate on this, can you imagine the situation it will take to go retrieve these kids? …

Yeah, the kids aren’t coming back, and no one can get them back. It’s the most dystopian, depressing, and horrific part of this war so far.

[Bevo 13,577]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

I agree with most of his conclusions, but yeah.  Needs to take 10-20% off the top.  IIRC, he has said China will collapse as a nation in 10 years.  They're in big trouble for sure, but they're gonna be around for a very long time.

Yeah, China has been around for 3500 years. 10 more might be cutting it a little short.

[Macanudo 12,977]

59 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

This is an awesome video, and everyone should listen to or watch it. It's only 12 minutes long. If even half of this guys statements/hypotheses are correct, ooof. 

The technical term?   Hahahaha.   Based on the stage and flags off to his right, he's talking to senior military leaders.  

[RPM 26,320]

13 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Help me understand kidnapping 1.2MM people and counting...what's the end goal there? 

That salt and coal ain't just going to dig itself.

[Royalfan5 2,354]

12 hours ago, Parliament said:

The Czars did this exact same thing to the Volga Germans in the 1800's.  Take their children and all the sudden they were much more...compliant.  And lol it doesn't work.  Lotsa Volga Germans moved to Iowa and the Dakotas in the late 1800's.  Three genrations later and they're still mad at the World, nttawwt.

Nebraska and Kansas too. It's how we got the Runza. They settled a bunch in western Nebraska because it was sugar beet country, and they figured they'd be used to the desolation. 

[686 3,449]

Many of our would-be murderers enlisted and were busy killing in Europe or Africa and getting awarded medals for it. 

Yep, I would posit that the same thing is going on in Ukraine right now. A guy goes to fight the Russians, gets some medals, comes back better for it, instead of going back to being a hoodlum, maybe he starts a construction biz and does well reconstructing his country. And then he can write off vacations and shit he buys for his wife as corporate expenses like we do here.

[0xdeadbeef 1,651]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, China has been around for 3500 years. 10 more might be cutting it a little short.

While China is not going away, the Chinese government may face some serious turmoil in the next 10 years.   Xi Jinping changed the rules and made himself president for life. I good gig if you can get it, but Winnie the Pooh's doppelganger is 68 now, in 10 years he'll be past the life expectancy in China.  I assume the "10 year" prediction is expecting a nasty fight over a power vacuum. Not a certainty, but not unrealistic either.  

[0xdeadbeef 1,651]

double post...my bad.

Edited May 11, 2022 by 0xdeadbeef

[The Dog 44,044]

and Perun posted a video on Lend Lease and the current aid to Ukraine (tl;dw - Lend Lease isn't that big of a deal right now due to other mechanisms but is handy if things get bogged down in congress):

He also goes into why Lend-Lease was a much bigger deal in WW2 - US had a lot of neutrality laws and LL helped us get around it to supply the allies. Remember that the original Lend Lease was signed in March 1941.

[atomheartbevo 89,660]

That river crossing… holy shit

 

[atomheartbevo 89,660]

Damn

 

[Parliament 14,258]

2 hours ago, 686 said:

One of Ziehan’s points that is really interesting is that the KGB has basically run Russia since ~1985, and that they haven’t been educating new talent / training new people to run stuff. So every time Putin has some mid to upper level KGB guy “disappeared” as a scapegoat, it’s one less qualified candidate to actually run stuff.

Well, Putin just fired/jailed/liquidated a significant portion of the future leader candidate pool, and maybe put some serious distance between himself and the rest of the KGB. At some point maybe the KGB starts helping someone they see as a successor to Putin that can bolster the current power structure before a little revolution starts and a Navalny or Khodorkovsky type gets elected and really cleans out the KGB.

And whoever takes over will be woefully imcompetent.

Quote

Yeah, China has been around for 3500 years. 10 more might be cutting it a little short.

I should have been more specific.  He believes the government will fail and China will break up, similar to what happened in the early 1900's.  Still though.  That ain't gonna happen.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Parliament

[27-25 2,047]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We need another David Attenborough narration on the Russian River crossing carnage...

 

 

[JesusSweatDuck 17,781]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Damn

 

Ah, the infamous flying Russian Sunflower

[RPM 26,320]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

And whoever takes over will be woefully imcompetent.

[686 3,449]

That river crossing… holy shit
 

There was some text posted yesterday about this that I now can’t find; supposedly from one of the UA participants that said basically: “the orc vehicles were bunched up crossing the pontoon bridge, we started hitting the vehicles on the bridge with javelins, and then the bridge gave way and all the vehicles on it went in the water, and then we picked apart the remaining vehicles. Many orcs died.”

[The Dog 44,044]

 

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1,501]

There was some text posted yesterday about this that I now can’t find; supposedly from one of the UA participants that said basically: “the orc vehicles were bunched up crossing the pontoon bridge, we started hitting the vehicles on the bridge with javelins, and then the bridge gave way and all the vehicles on it went in the water, and then we picked apart the remaining vehicles. Many orcs died.”

[jdhorn92 1,549]

14 hours ago, SaucyJack said:

 

 

I posted a few weeks ago about Patton, but just finished Killing Patton (i know I know Reilly), but Gatdamn Patton was right.  But for a war weary nation and political climate at home, and the Japan theater opening up full go, we should have pushed their shit in,  all the way back to Moscow.  The geo-political ramifications of letting Stahlin have so much influence and obstensibly ignoring Churchill in many discussions of how Europe was divided , I found to be fascinating.  Patton was a lot of things, most notably a grade A asshole, but he was right.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

I'd guess that while Russia may try to defend gains in NE Ukraine, their primary goals are maintaining a land bridge to Crimea and creating one to Transnistria.  So ultimately they may redeploy the NE units to the south front and cede the NE gains if necessary.  They might settle for control south of the Dnipro River, but will make a push to capture Odessa and the entire Ukrainian coast.  

Just a guess, but drawing on my vast experience as an armchair quarterback.

Edited May 11, 2022 by clapclapclap

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

16 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

I'd guess that while Russia may try to defend gains in NE Ukraine, their primary goals are maintaining a land bridge to Crimea and creating one to Transnistria.  So ultimately they may redeploy the NE units to the south front and cede the NE gains if necessary.  They might settle for control south of the Dnipro River, but will make a push to capture Odessa and the entire Ukrainian coast.  

Just a guess, but drawing on my vast experience as an armchair quarterback.

Those might be Russia's main goals now, but ceding their gains on the Kyiv front hasn't helped them much with those goals.  As someone pointed out yesterday, ceding anything in the Kharkiv region stands a very good chance of making supply lines longer, more difficult, and slower.  I'm not sure that Russia can afford to cede any ground.

[texastough 1,129]

They’re not going to push all the way to transnistria, Odesa, or even advance past Kherson either

[Trey3216 15,346]

6 minutes ago, texastough said:

They’re not going to push all the way to transnistria, Odesa, or even advance past Kherson either

Nope, and they’re about to be getting pushed east of Kherson where there’s going to be a significant push by Ukraine to get to Mariupol.   

[texastough 1,129]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Nope, and they’re about to be getting pushed east of Kherson where there’s going to be a significant push by Ukraine to get to Mariupol.   

I’ve been hoping so too. Not only to relieve Mariupol but also to cut off resupply from crimea. A pincer to go with the Kharkiv offensive 

[The Dog 44,044]

 

[Thatguy 8,699]

5 hours ago, Orange&White said:

Send in some nice CIA fellows with briefcases stuffed with American dollars and US Passports and see what they know.

  This is the move right here. Strike while the iron is hot.

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

9 minutes ago, texastough said:

I’ve been hoping so too. Not only to relieve Mariupol but also to cut off resupply from crimea. A pincer to go with the Kharkiv offensive 

Y'all better learn patience.  That lack of a 3:1 advantage works against Ukraine, too, even with better weapons.  Any advances by Ukraine will be slow and methodical unless there is a major mutiny or other collapse in the Russian Army.  You can't plan or rely on that occurring, but you can be ready to take advantage if it does.