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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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686

686 3404

Posted
Posted
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/ut1dym/more_good_news_from_exfsb_doomer_girkin_russias/i96ved1
 
Strelkov Igor Ivanovich
 
To questions like: "what's new on the fronts?" It's hard for me to answer now. On the fronts, almost everywhere - battles. Somewhere positional, somewhere offensive and (increasingly) defensive. In general, with the exception of the Donbass and the Kharkiv region, the front is stable. Ours and ukry are digging in. And it's very bad. Why? - Yes, because if a month and a half ago, in the Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog directions, the enemy had only mobile defense, now they are intensively creating strongholds on the front line and in their near rear, which then will inevitably have to be taken VERY LONG AND WITH GREAT LOSSES. Like Mariupol, like Popasnaya, Izyum, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. We will again have to wage stubborn bloody battles for every village, every grove and skyscraper ... it is expensive to pay with Russian blood for every few hundred meters traveled. And it seems that there will be no one to "ask" for this - "of course, by the objective course of events it turned out that way" ... although this is not at all the case.
 
At the beginning of the operation, the RF Armed Forces just demonstrated highly maneuverable actions, deep strategic breakthroughs for tens and even hundreds of kilometers. Which ended in "zilch" for reasons that I have repeatedly called and described. (Initially, a fundamentally wrong assessment of the operational situation, which was the basis of military planning and the extreme lack of forces and means associated with this assessment to consolidate and control the territory passed, etc.). Nevertheless - despite the final discouraging "semi-failure" (there was no "run to the border" in the south), the first stage of the operation - it (compared to the "Second Concrete") - looks much more "alive" than that " bloody push-pull" into which the fighting has degenerated since late April to this day. Simply because at the first stage there was no conscious purposeful and even "pre-glorified" near-military "experts" sticking the active army into a STRATEGIC DEADLOCK. The military decisions were bold and aimed at achieving a decisive victory. While even the FULL success (which is not visible in the near future) of the second stage, at best, will only lead to costly (in terms of losses in people and equipment) relatively small territorial acquisitions achieved by PUSHING the enemy out of Donbass.
 
Imagine for a moment that the enemy in the next few weeks will still be completely defeated by continuous frontal and flank attacks and completely driven out of the LDNR. - AND? - And what will it give? Will it end the war? - No, not at all. The maximum will shorten the front line somewhat and nothing more. Suppose the enemy suffers heavy losses (he still bears them). But in these few weeks, he will be able (due to ongoing mobilizations) to prepare new fresh reserves. Moreover, he already has these reserves! - The enemy is so confident in the strategic stability of his front (on which the surrender of 1-2 settlements in 2-3 days has no effect) that he continues to keep a relatively large grouping on the border with Transnistria and even created a new one (several army BTGs) on the border with Belarus. And he continues to form new units and formations both in the deep rear and in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions abandoned by the Russian troops during the "run to the border".
 
That is, when our formations, weakened by the hardest battles and bloody assaults, reach the borders of the LDNR, they will be met by fresh and well-equipped formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the lines prepared in advance for defense. And even if these fresh formations do not want (for some reason) to seize the initiative and launch a counter-offensive (one or more) - all the same, the Russian Federation will face the prospect of a long positional war in full growth - a war, almost (with a reservation - in current realities) fatal for our economy, social and socio-political stability.
 
But I will be honest - receiving a lot of messages "from the field" from soldiers, junior and middle commanders, sufficient to create an approximate "mosaic" of the general situation at the front - I personally do not have much hope that the task of completely clearing the Donbass will be completed, although until the middle of June. Moreover, I believe (with a high degree of probability) that it will not be carried out until the very moment when the Armed Forces of Ukraine try to seize the strategic initiative by starting offensive operations already planned right now (I'm sure). And - yes - I believe the most dangerous direction in this regard is Kherson, since it is here (and the enemy is PERFECTLY KNOWN) on the defensive there are units of the DPR reservists that (only "Lugansk") the enemy has ALREADY thrown back to the Russian border in the Kharkiv region. Moreover, the Donetsk reservists - in fact, the militias - will certainly fight. And they will fight hard. But their weapons and equipment "leave much to be desired" about the same as their command or even more (although I probably already "turned down" this).
 
But, let's say, for some reason, the enemy will not attack, but will limit himself to sitting on the newly built defensive lines (inviting our generals to continue to "smash their soldiers' foreheads against numerous "fortresses"). And what will the high command do in this case?
 
After all, without a breakthrough of the newly created and occupied positions by large enemy forces, there will be no defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And without the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there will be no final victory - no matter how many "calibers" you fire at rear facilities, they still won't be enough to completely paralyze the Ukrainian transport network and destroy the economy "to the ground". Moreover, it is impossible to hope for victory "by exhaustion", provided that the "rear" for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is almost all of Europe plus North America. That is, you will have to try to defeat the enemy in field battles. And, excuse me, by whom and with what?!? If so far even partial mobilization has not been carried out ??
 
No one can give clear answers to all these questions. Simply because they don't exist. While the pests in the environment of the president will assure him that: "Everything is fine, beautiful marquise- A little more and our triumph Don't stress, don't look for surprises: Our love and honors are waiting!"
 
 • nothing will change. And when it changes (unfortunately, the "surprises" will probably be no less discouraging than before the "run to the border") 
 
 • it will be too late to do a lot ...
 
In the meantime ... In the meantime - in general terms:
 
 • South of Izyum, units of the RF Armed Forces and the LDNR are still "bashing head-on" against the ukrov defenses on the approaches to the Slavyansk-Barvenkovo highway and to Slavyansk itself (for the last couple of days - there is no information about progress);
 
 • Heavy battles with a slow advance are taking place north of Popasnaya and south of Lisichansk (there is no talk of any “cauldron” for the enemy in this area yet - so far there has just been a likely “bag” with a very wide “neck”, which our fighters still it will be necessary to “tie up”, which the enemy is also well aware of - the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not led by morons, but by specialists from NATO);
 
 • Also slowly, our troops are "compressing" the city of Liman (Red Liman) and trying to break through to Svyatogorsk;
 
 • Near Donetsk, fierce attacks continue northeast of Avdiivka and southwest of Gorlovka, in the area south of Maryinka, I have no information about the progress in the last 24 hours (so far, at least).
 
In Maruipol, the final surrender of Azovstal by the enemy and the capture of the group defending it is a major propaganda success, but - in the overall picture - it is a delayed consequence of the relative success of the FIRST stage of the operation, and not the "second-specific" one. In real time and from a military point of view, this is also, unfortunately, a purely tactical success. No more.
 
As a general result: our successes are still exclusively tactical in nature. The enemy is trying to keep ALL important military and information-propaganda large settlements. And - apparently - has enough strength and reserves to hope for success in this. If not complete, then at least partial. The "battle to starvation" (as I have repeatedly noted - as a military decision, I rate it no higher than "idiotic") in the Donbas continues and the "strategic impasse" (for the RF Armed Forces, but not for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who are gaining time) is getting deeper.
 
P.S. Those wishing to "make" any claims for the above conclusions to the author (ie me) - I refer to the text fixed at the top of the page. 
 

This guy is an asshole, but his assessment of the situation seems accurate and informed. He seems more adversarial towards the west than Putin, don’t know if that’s a role he’s playing for Putin’s political theater or if he’s a lunatic politically and a realist militarily or what.
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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17556

Posted
Posted
Baltic states asking that NATO build permanent bases in their countries.
On the one hand, plays into Putin's hands.
On the other hand, kind of can't afford not to beef up the NATO presence because of what Putin is doing and what his lackeys on state TV are saying.
 

They have a shitty neighbor in an otherwise nice neighborhood. I get it.
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MillerEP

MillerEP 30339

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Baltic states asking that NATO build permanent bases in their countries.

On the one hand, plays into Putin's hands.

On the other hand, kind of can't afford not to beef up the NATO presence because of what Putin is doing and what his lackeys on state TV are saying.

 

Pros are it usually supercharges the local economy where bases are, with all those young men and women with steady paychecks and nowhere to burn through all that cash.

Cons are it usually just dissolves into tattoo parlors, bars, strip clubs, and red-light districts. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25496

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

I thought they just hire Blackwater or whatever it is called now to provide “security “

No, only some places. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya to name three I know of. There could be a private, or Diplomatic Security group to guard personnel, like the Ambassador.

Every Embassy has a Marine Security Guard Detachment that is in charge of the perimeter and the buildings. Outside that there is a local guard force, run by a US Company usually, but not Tier 1 US high speed dudes. There is also times where the Embassy is reinforced by the Quick Reaction Force.

The MSG's, though military, are part of the Diplomatic Mission. This is quite odd. Ya know there is some US personnel guarding that stuff. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9898

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Pros are it usually supercharges the local economy where bases are, with all those young men and women with steady paychecks and nowhere to burn through all that cash.

Cons are it usually just dissolves into tattoo parlors, bars, strip clubs, and red-light districts. 

The most depressing part of the Wash, DC region is Clinton, MD, which services Andrew’s. 

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26249

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Cons are it usually just dissolves into tattoo parlors, bars, strip clubs, and red-light districts. 

Raise your hand if you ever stole an oscillating fan from a Hay St. "bar" after your buddy got cheated. /FayetteNam /NotGenerallyAFanOfGentrificationButInThisCaseHellYeah

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25496

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Raise your hand if you ever stole an oscillating fan from a Hay St. "bar" after your buddy got cheated. /FayetteNam /NotGenerallyAFanOfGentrificationButInThisCaseHellYeah

No, but when I was 17 went out drinking with my brother who was group. he had a buddy who was a bouncer and got me into a bar. We got fucked up. Brother gets pulled over on the way back to the hotel we had and arrested. Cop tells me to drive. I was in worse shape. Never carded me, nothing. So I followed the cop in the Ford Fairlane 500 to the station. I did not want to, but figured do what he says.

I wait outside. Brother somehow beats the breath test, comes out, we head to hotel and continue to drink beer. 

Brother and dad have two things in common, and that is it. They were both in Group and they were both arrested on Hay Street. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14128

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Damn.

Sounds like she disappeared/hasn't been heard from since the AP managed to get her footage out.

 

I don't get into human interest stories, but this on gets me.   Vladimir Putin is the physical manifestation of evil.  He is Satan walking the Earth.

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686

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Posted

The EU is serious about using the oligarch money and the frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine. I do think it would be kind of fun to have a charity auction in Monte Carlo of all the oligarch yachts, house furnishings, art, etc., all proceeds tax deductible and go to Ukraine reconstruction. Play it up and guilt all the big money into coming like a big Met Gala, but for a good cause. (Rimshot)

On a serious note, it’s really hard to know how much residual value those yachts have. I mean, who wants to own Putin’s yacht while he’s still alive. GRU could repo it from you on the high seas and park it in Polyarny.

“Our lawyers are working intensively on finding possible ways of using frozen assets of the oligarchs for the rebuilding of Ukraine. I think Russia should also make its contribution,"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-exploring-using-oligarchs-frozen-assets-rebuild-ukraine-von-der-leyen-2022-05-19/

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9898

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, 686 said:

The EU is serious about using the oligarch money and the frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine. I do think it would be kind of fun to have a charity auction in Monte Carlo of all the oligarch yachts, house furnishings, art, etc., all proceeds tax deductible and go to Ukraine reconstruction. Play it up and guilt all the big money into coming like a big Met Gala, but for a good cause. (Rimshot)

On a serious note, it’s really hard to know how much residual value those yachts have. I mean, who wants to own Putin’s yacht while he’s still alive. GRU could repo it from you on the high seas and park it in Polyarny.

“Our lawyers are working intensively on finding possible ways of using frozen assets of the oligarchs for the rebuilding of Ukraine. I think Russia should also make its contribution,"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-exploring-using-oligarchs-frozen-assets-rebuild-ukraine-von-der-leyen-2022-05-19/

I mean, boats are the ultimate depreciating asset.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Grimas

Grimas 659

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Posted

Not sure if this is part 3 as it appears to be someone else...  https://justpaste.it/42cf5

Quote

It's difficult for me right now to answer questions of 'What's new on the frontlines?'. Almost everywhere on the frontlines there are battles. Somewhere positional, elsewhere - offensive, and more often than not - defensive. In general, everywhere except for Donetsk and Kharkiv the frontline is stable. Both us and Ukrainians are entrenching. And... THIS IS VERY BAD! Why? Because, if a month or month and half ago the enemy only had mobile defence in Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Ryh directions, now they are actively building fortified positions at the frontlines and in their near rears, which we will then need to be capturing FOR A LONG TIME AND WITH HUGE LOSSES. Just like Mariupol, Popasna, Izyum, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. We will again need to wage fierce bloody fights for each village, every grove and every high-rise... pay with Russian blood for every few hundred meters conquered. And there will be no one to 'question' about it - 'this all happened naturally, as it was meant', which is certainly not true.

 

At the start of the operation the RF AF actually demonstrated highly manoeuvrable actions, deep strategic breakthroughs for tens and even hundreds of kilometers. They ended with 'nothing' for reasons I've already described and called out many times. (Initially, a completely inaccurate evaluation of operational situation, which was used as a basis for combat planning, and linked to this evaluation a severe lack of resources and means to hold on and control the conquered territory). Nevertheless, despite the resulting shocking 'half-failure' (in the South, no 'run to the border' has happened) of the first stage of the operation - it appeared much more lively (compared to the 'Second Concrete') than the bloody 'push-pull' which the hostilities have become since end of April and until now. Simply because in the first stage, there was no conscious purposeful and even 'famed in advance' by 'near-military' 'experts' sticking of the army into a STRATEGIC DEADLOCK. The military decisions were courageous and aimed at achieving a decisive victory.

 

Now however, even the TOTAL success (which is not expected in the near future) of the second stage, at best, will lead to costly (in terms of personnel and vehicle losses), fairly small territorial gains, achieved by PUSHING OUT the enemy from Donbas territory.

 

Let's imagine for a second, that in the next few weeks the enemy will be after all defeated through continuous frontal and flank attacks, and completely pushed out of LDPR borders. And? What will this achieve? Will this end the war? No, not at all. At best - it will reduce the frontline, not more. Let's say the enemy suffers heavy losses (they do now). But in those weeks they will be able (thanks to continuing mobilisation) to prepare new fresh reserves. Moreover, they already have these reserves! The enemy is so confident in the strategic stability of their frontline (abandoning 1-2 localities in 2-3 days has no effect on this) that they continue keeping a relatively large group at the border of Transnistria, and even created a new (several army BTGs) at the border with Belarus. And they continue forming new units and detachments both in deep rear, and also in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts given up by Russian forces during the 'run to the border'.

 

Thus, when the weakened in heavy fights and bloody assaults troops reach the borders of LDPR, they will be met by fresh and well-equipped UAF units at frontiers prepared for defence in advance. And even if those fresh units for whatever reason decide not to take over the initiative and begin a counter-offensive (one or more) - still the Russian Federation will face a perspective of a long positional war, which is nearly fatal (in current conditions) to our economy, social and socio-political situation. 

 

But I'll be honest - receiving quite a lot of messages 'from the field' from soldiers, junior and middle commanders, enough to create an approximate 'mosaic' of the general situation on the frontlines, I personally have no significant hopes that the objective of fully clearing the Donbas will be complete by at least mid-June. Moreover, I presume (with high level of probability) that it will not be completed until the very point when UAF will try to overtake the strategic initiative by beginning the planned (right this moment) offensive operations. And yes - the most dangerous direction I believe is Kherson, since that's exactly where (and the enemy KNOWS IT VERY WELL) defending are the same in terms of equipment and training elements of DPR reservists, which (just those were from Luhansk) the enemy has ALREADY pushed out to the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast. At the same time, the Donetsk militia will undoubtedly put up a fight. And the fight will be fierce. But their weaponry and equipment 'leave much to be desired' just like their leadership, if not less (although, I've probably said 'too much').

 

But, let's say the enemy for whatever reason decided to not attack, and will limit to sitting on the newly created defensive positions (offering our generals to continue 'smashing their soldier's foreheads against numerous fortresses'). What will the High Command do in this case?

After all, without breaking through the newly created and occupied by large enemy forces positions there will be no defeat of UAF. And without defeating UAF there will be no final victory - regardless of how many 'Kalibr's you launch at rear facilities, they still won't be enough to fully paralyse the Ukrainian transport network and destroy the economy 'to the ground'. Especially it's meaningless to hope for victory through attrition taking into account that almost all of Europe and North America are acting as a rear for UAF. Thus, it will be necessary to try and defeat the enemy in field battles. And, excuse me, with whom, and with what?! If so far not even the partial mobilisation has been carried out?!

No one is giving clear answers to these questions. Simply because there aren't any. While the pests in the president's entourage will be assuring him that:

"Everything is fine, beautiful marquise
A little more and our triumph
Don't stress, don't look for surprises
Our love and honours are waiting!"

- nothing will change. And when it does change (unfortunately, the 'surprises' are likely to be no less discouraging than before the 'run to the border') it will be too late to do anything...

 

In the meantime ... In the meantime - in general terms:
 
- South of Izyum, units of the RF Armed Forces and LDPR are still "bashing head-on" against the Ukrainian defences on the approaches to the Sloviansk-Barvenkovo highway and to Sloviansk itself (in the last couple of days there is no information about progress);
 
- Heavy battles with a slow advance are taking place north of Popasna and south of Lisichansk (there is no discussion of any “cauldron” for the enemy in this area yet - so far only a possible “bag” with a very wide “neck” is appearing, which our fighters will still need to “tie up”, and the enemy is well aware of this - the UAF are not led by morons, but by specialists from NATO);
 
- Also slowly, our troops are "encircling" the city of Lyman (Krasnyi Lyman) and trying to break through to Svyatogorsk;
 
- Near Donetsk, fierce attacks continue northeast of Avdiivka and southwest of Horlivka, in the area south of Maryinka, I have no information about the progress in the last 24 hours (so far, at least).
 
In Maruipol, the final surrender of Azovstal by the enemy and the capture of the group defending it is a major propaganda success, but - in the overall picture - it is a delayed consequence of the relative success of the FIRST stage of the operation, and not the "Second Concrete" one. In real time and from a military point of view, this is also, unfortunately, a purely tactical success. No more.
 
As a general conclusion: our successes are still exclusively tactical in nature. The enemy is trying to keep ALL large settlements important in military and informational-propagandist sense. And - apparently - has enough strength and reserves to hope for success in this. If not complete success, then at least partial. The "attrition battle" (as I have repeatedly noted - as a military decision, I rate it no higher than "idiotic") in the Donbas continues and the "strategic impasse" (for the RF Armed Forces, but not for the UAF, who are gaining time) is getting deeper.
 
P.S. Those wishing to 'put something' to the author (ie myself) for the above conclusions - I refer to the text pinned at the top of the page.
 

 

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14083

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, 686 said:

The EU is serious about using the oligarch money and the frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine. I do think it would be kind of fun to have a charity auction in Monte Carlo of all the oligarch yachts, house furnishings, art, etc., all proceeds tax deductible and go to Ukraine reconstruction. Play it up and guilt all the big money into coming like a big Met Gala, but for a good cause. (Rimshot)

On a serious note, it’s really hard to know how much residual value those yachts have. I mean, who wants to own Putin’s yacht while he’s still alive. GRU could repo it from you on the high seas and park it in Polyarny.

“Our lawyers are working intensively on finding possible ways of using frozen assets of the oligarchs for the rebuilding of Ukraine. I think Russia should also make its contribution,"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-exploring-using-oligarchs-frozen-assets-rebuild-ukraine-von-der-leyen-2022-05-19/

Turn the Lake Como mansions into timeshares and have a bunch of MAGAs dump their life savings into it. Double win for the planet. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25496

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Turn the Lake Como mansions into timeshares and have a bunch of MAGAs dump their life savings into it. Double win for the planet. 

Nah, turn them all into convalescent centers for wounded Ukrainians. That would really piss off the oligarchs. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25496

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthLoop said:

That would be cool too but wouldn't raise money. I say let's bleed those who need bleeding. 

Just make em poor. Start seizing companies, etc. Make their daughters into OF participants so they can pay for their lifestyles. Never let them into business again. Make it so they can only sell inside Russia. Life time sanctions. 

There needs to be some symbolism. 

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